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At least 685 records · Page 38

Storm Warning Service

A Huntsville meteorologist of Baron Services, Inc. has formed a commercial weather advisory service. Weather information is based on data from Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) collected from antennas in Alabama and Tennessee. Bob Baron refines and enhances MSFC's real time display software. Computer data is changed to audio data for radio transmission, received by clients through an antenna and decoded by computer for display. Using his service, clients can monitor the approach of significant storms and schedule operations accordingly. Utilities and emergency management officials are able to plot a storm's path. A recent agreement with two other companies will promote continued development and marketing.

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High-Resolution Simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998): Storm Structure and Evolution

A simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998) has been performed using multiple grid nesting to 2 km grid spacing. The simulation is initialized with large-scale analysis fields from the European Center for Medium Range Forecasts and with a bogus vortex inserted via four-dimensional variational data assimilation. The simulation, verified against radar observations from TRMM and aircraft observations from the NASA CAMEX-3 field experiment, reproduces well the storm intensity, the wavenumber 1 asymmetry of the precipitation field, the occurrence of deep convective towers within the eyewall, and the presence of broad stratiform precipitation regions. This study will explore the evolution of air parcels in these convective towers, from their beginnings in the boundary layer to their movement in upper level outflow. The role of these towers in storm intensification may also be examined.

Braun, Scott A.↗

The NASA Thunderstorm Observations and Research (ThOR) Mission: Lightning Mapping from Space to Improve the Short-term Forecasting of Severe Storms

The ThOR mission uses a lightning mapping sensor in geostationary Earth orbit to provide continuous observations of thunderstorm activity over the Americas and nearby oceans. The link between lightning activity and cloud updrafts is the basis for total lightning observations indicating the evolving convective intensification and decay of storms. ThOR offers a national operational demonstration of the utility of real-time total lightning mapping for earlier and more reliable identification of potentially severe and hazardous storms. Regional pilot projects have already demonstrated that the dominance in-cloud lightning and increasing in-cloud lash rates are known to precede severe weather at the surface by tens of minutes. ThOR is currently planned for launch in 2005 on a commercial or research satellite. Real-time data will be provided to selected NWS Weather Forecast Offices and National Centers (EMC/AWC/SPC) for evaluation.

Goodman, S. J.↗

Analysis and Forecast of Two Storms Characterized by Extreme Deepening Rates

Between 25 and 27 December 1999 two very intense cyclones, named Lothar and Martin, swept across northern and western France causing substantial life and property loss. In this work, the finite volume general circulation model and data assimilation system (fvDAS) developed at the Data Assimilation Office of the NASA Goddard Space and Flight Center is being used to investigate these storms. In the first part of this article the dynamics of the storms is analyzed, and some important mechanisms are unveiled. The second part describes a set of eleven data assimilation experiments to study the impact of different data types on the automated analyses. Cloud-track winds provided by EUMETSAT and surface winds from QuikSCAT are being used. These data are assimilated with a range of different parameter settings of the forecast error covariance model. The results show that generally the additional wind data set have positive impacts on the analyses: particularly, the analysis of Lothar can be slightly improved by using the Eumetsat winds, and the analysis of Martin can be strongly improved by using the full-resolution QuikSCAT winds with a more localized influence. The third part of this article is focused on the forecast of Lothar which is very well predicted in the 1-5 day range by the fvDAS system.

Reale, Oreste↗

The LWS Geospace Storm Investigations Exploring the Extremes of Space Weather

The Geospace mission of the Living With a Star program is a family of investigations focusing on the compelling science questions that advance our ability to specify, understand, and predict the societal impact of solar variance. Two key areas have been identified as combining both importance to society and potential for scientific progress: 1) characterization and understanding of the acceleration, global distribution, and variability of energetic electrons and ions in the inner magnetosphere, and 2) characterization and understanding of the ionosphere and irregularities that affect communications, navigation and radar systems. Under these broad categories specific science questions have emerged as the priority science objectives for the first Geospace Investigations: How and why do relativistic electrons in the outer zone and slot region vary during geomagnetic storms? How does the long- and short-term variability of the Sun affect the global-scale behavior of the ionospheric electron density and irregularities, especially during magnetic storms and at mid-latitudes? The first Geospace mission will attempt to answer these questions.

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HALOE Observations of Perturbations in High Northern Latitude NO and O3 During the April 2002 Solar Storm Episode

The April 2002 solar storm event provides a unique opportunity to study the resulting effects on upper atmospheric constituents such as NO and O3. Two sources may perturb these constituents. For a magnetic-storm-source, energetic particles collide with and dissociate N2 in the lower thermosphere to produce excited nitrogen atoms which then combine with O to produce NO. The NO subsequently is transported down to lower altitudes where it reacts with and thus destroys mesospheric and possibly stratospheric ozone. For a solar-particle-event-source, high energy particles penetrate directly into the mesosphere, break apart N2 and water vapor, creating NOx and HOx to destroy ozone in the middle atmosphere. We present perturbations in high northern latitude NO and O3 as measured by the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) aboard the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite between April 20-27. HALOE observations show an order of magnitude increase in mesospheric NO and a factor of approximately 2 decrease in mesospheric O3. We will also compare these observations with NASA GSFC 2D model computations.

Anderson, John↗

Meteor Outbursts and Storms from the Spacecraft Hazard Perspective

The recent Leonid meteor storms have propelled meteor shower forecasting from an idea into the realm of practical application, invoked several times per year by numerous spacecraft. This paper will describe shower activity predictions, which give zenith hourly rate (ZHR) as a function of time, and how these are translated into spacecraft risks. Common spacecraft meteor shower mitigation strategies will also be discussed, and the important issue as to when to implement such operations considered. It should be noted that, while the recent meteor storms did not result in the loss of a vehicle, there were a few spacecraft anomalies attributed to Leonid strikes, and the nature of these will be commented upon. Finally, we assess the current state of the art in shower forecasting, and take a look "down the road" at some possible outbursts in the near future.

Cooke, William↗

Sensitivity of a Cloud-Resolving Model to the Bulk and Explicit Bin Microphysical Schemes: Validations with a PRE-STORM Case - Part 1

A cloud-resolving model is used to study sensitivities of two different microphysical schemes, one is the bulk type, and the other is an explicit bin scheme, in simulating a mid-latitude squall line case (PRE-STORM, June 10-11, 1985). Simulations using different microphysical schemes are compared with each other and also with the observations. Both the bulk and bin models reproduce the general features during the developing and mature stage of the system. The leading convective zone, the trailing stratiform region, the horizontal wind flow patterns, pressure perturbation associated with the storm dynamics, and the cool pool in front of the system all agree well with the observations. Both the observations and the bulk scheme simulation serve as validations for the newly incorporated bin scheme. However, it is also shown that, the bulk and bin simulations have distinct differences, most notably in the stratiform region. Weak convective cells exist in the stratiform region in the bulk simulation, but not in the bin simulation. These weak convective cells in the stratiform region are remnants of the previous stronger convections at the leading edge of the system. The bin simulation, on the other hand, has a horizontally homogeneous stratiform cloud structure, which agrees better with the observations. Preliminary examinations of the downdraft core strength, the potential temperature perturbation, and the evaporative cooling rate show that the differences between the bulk and bin models are due mainly to the stronger low-level evaporative cooling in convective zone simulated in the bulk model. Further quantitative analysis and sensitivity tests for this case using both the bulk and bin models will be presented in a companion paper.

Li, Xiao-Wen↗

Duration and Extent of the Great Auroral Storm of 1859

The great geomagnetic storm of August 28 through September 3,1859 is, arguably, the greatest and most famous space weather event in the last two hundred years. For the first time observations showed that the sun and aurora were connected and that auroras generated strong ionospheric currents. A significant portion of the world's 200,000 km of telegraph lines were adversely affected, many of which were unusable for 8 hours or more which had a real economic impact. In addition to published scientific measurements, newspapers, ship logs, and other records of that era provide an untapped wealth of first hand observations giving time and location along with reports of the auroral forms and colors. At its height, the aurora was described as a blood or deep crimson red that was so bright that one "could read a newspaper by." At its peak, the Type A red aurora lasted for several hours and was observed to reach extremely low geomagnetic latitudes on August 28-29 (-25") and on September 2-3 (-18"). Auroral forms of all types and colors were observed below 50" latitude for -24 hours on August 28-29 and -42 hours on September 2-3. From a large database of ground-based observations the extent of the aurora in corrected geomagnetic coordinates is presented over the duration of the storm event.

Green, James L.↗

Dayside Global Ionospheric Response to the Major Interplanetary Events of October 29-30, 2003 ''Halloween Storms''

We demonstrate extreme ionospheric response to the large interplanetary electric fields during the "Halloween" storms that occurred on October 29 and 30, 2003. Within a few (2 - 5) hours of the time when the enhanced interplanetary electric field impinged on the magnetopause, dayside total electron content increases of approx.40% and approx.250% are observed for the October 29 and 30 events, respectively. During the Oct 30 event, approx.900% increases in electron content above the CHAMP satellite (approx.400 km altitude) were observed at mid-latitudes (+/-30 degrees geomagnetic). The geomagnetic storm-time phenomenon of prompt penetration electric fields is a possible contributing cause of these electron content increases, producing dayside ionospheric uplift combined with equatorial plasma diffusion along magnetic field lines to higher latitudes, creating a "daytime super-fountain" effect.

magnetosphere↗

Interactions Between Vestige Atlantic Tropical Cyclones and Mid-Latitude Storms Over Mediterranean Basin

One of the more interesting tropical-mid-latitude interactions is one that has important effects on precipitation within the Mediterranean basin. This interaction consists of an Atlantic tropical cyclone vestige whose original disturbance travels eastward and northward across Atlantic basin, eventually intermingling with a mid-latitude cyclone entering southern Europe and/or the \bestern Mediterranean Sea. The period for these interactions is from mid-September through November. If the tropical cyclone and its vestige is able to make the eastward Atlantic transit within the low to mid-levels, or if an upper level potential vorticity perturbation Cjet streak) emitted by a Hurricane in its latter stages within the central Atlantic is able to propagate into and along the longwave pattern affecting the western Mediterranean Sea (MED), then there is the prospect for the tropical cyclone remnant to produce a major modification of the mid-latitude storm system preparing to affect the MED region. For such an occurrence to take place, it is necessary for an amplifying baroclinic perturbation to be already situated to the rear of a longwave trough, or to be excited by the emitted jet streak to the rear of a longwave trough -- in either case, preparing to affect the western MED. The Algiers City flood of 9-10 November 2001, which killed some 700 people, was produced by a Mediterranean cyclone that had been influenced by two vestige Atlantic tropical cyclones, 1,orenzo and Noel. A published modeling study involving various of this study's authors has already described the dynamical development of the Algiers storm as it amplified from a developing baroclinic disturbance in the Rossby wave train, into a northern Africa hazardous flood system, then lingered in the western MED as a semi-intense warm core cyclone. In our new modeling experiments, we investigate the impact of what might have happened in the eventual precipitation field. had the main features of the tropical cyclones NOT interacted with thc developing baroclinic disturbance as it penetrated the western MED. To do so, we first remove the moisture and dynamical features of the two vestigial tropical cyclones from the large scale meteorological fields used to initialize the Mediterranean cyclone simulation. This is done through depletion of the moisture front associated with the two tropical cyclones, accomplished by relaxation to the suppressed east Atlantic conditions. The dynamical effects are removed through energetic destruction of the latter stages of the eastward traveling tropical cyclones, accomplished by lowering the underlying sea surface temperatures. A precipitation-distribution impact experiment is then run by initializing with the customized large-scale fields. The final precipitation-impact field is described by differencing the "impact" run from the "control" run -- the latter defined as the original simulation which intrinsically includes the effects of the two vestigial tropical cyclones.

Smith, Eric A.↗

The Weekend Effect for Precipitation Over Eastern U.S.: Evidence for Midweek Storm Intensification by Pollution

Every week the U.S. population carries out a climate-change experiment by varying their activities with the day of the week. It is well documented that pollution levels vary on a weekly basis. Particulate aerosol pollution is generally a maximum in the middle of the week and a minimum on weekends. It is also well known that aerosols can affect precipitation, although whether they suppress or enhance storm development depends on many factors. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite has provided evidence that rain statistics change with the day of the week over the southeast U.S. and neighboring waters during the summer months (JJA) of 1998-2005. There is a midweek increase in both rain area and intensity over land, and a midweek decrease over the nearby Atlantic and perhaps the Gulf of Mexico. Statistical tests suggest that the weekly variations are very unlikely to be due to the random behavior of weather. We will discuss the TRMM evidence. Wind data from model reanalysis, rain-gauge data, and TRMM radar data all appear to be consistent with the picture that aerosols are causing summertime storms to grow more vigorously and to produce more rainfall.

Bell, Thomas↗

Satellite Monitoring of Asian Dust Storms from SeaWiFS and MODIS: Source, pathway and Interannual Variability

Among the many components that contribute to air pollution, airborne mineral dust plays an important role due to its biogeochemical impact on the ecosystem and its radiative-forcing effect on the climate system. In East Asia, dust storms frequently accompany the cold and dry air masses that occur as part of springtime cold front systems. China's capital, Beijing, and other large cities are on the primary pathway of these dust storm plumes, and their passage over such population centers causes flight delays, pushes grit through windows and doors, and forces people indoors. Furthermore, during the spring these anthropogenic and natural air pollutants, once generated over the source regions, can be transported out of the boundary layer into the free troposphere and can travel thousands of kilometers across the Pacific into the United States and beyond. In this paper, we will demonstrate the capability of a new satellite algorithm to retrieve aerosol optical thickness and single scattering albedo over bright-reflecting surfaces such as urban areas and deserts. Such retrievals have been difficult to perform using previously available algorithms that use wavelengths from the mid-visible to the near IR because they have trouble separating the aerosol signal from the contribution due to the bright surface reflectance. The new algorithm, called Deep Blue, utilizes blue-wavelength measurements from instruments such as SeaWiFS and MODIS to infer the properties of aerosols, since the surface reflectance over land in the blue part of the spectrum is much lower than for longer wavelength channels. We have validated the satellite retrieved aerosol optical thickness with data from AERONET sunphotometers over desert and semi-desert regions. The comparisons show reasonable agreements between these two. These new satellite products will allow scientists to determine quantitatively the aerosol properties near sources using high spatial resolution measurements from SeaWiFS and MODIS-like instruments. The multiyear satellite measurements since 1998 from SeaWiFS will be utilized to investigate the interannual variability of source, pathway, and dust loading associated with these dust outbreaks in East Asia. The monthly averaged aerosol optical thickness during the springtime from SeaWiFS will also be compared with the MODIS Deep Blue products.

Hsu, N. Christina↗

Long-range Transport of Asian Dust Storms: A Satellite/Surface Perspective on Societal and Scientific Influence

Among the many components contributing to air pollution, airborne mineral dust plays an important role due to its biogeochemical impact on the ecosystem and its radiative forcing effect on the weather/climate system. As much as one-third to half of the global dust emissions, estimated about 800 Tg, are introduced annually into Earth's atmosphere from various deserts in China. Asian dust storm outbreaks are believed to have persisted for hundreds and thousands years over the vast territory of north and northwest China, but not until recent decades that many studies reveal the compelling evidence in recognizing the importance of these eolian dust particles for forming Chinese Loess Plateau and for biogeochemical cycling in the North Pacific Ocean to as far as in the Greenland ice-sheets through long-range transport. The Asian dust and air pollution aerosols can be detected by its colored appearance on current Earth observing satellites and its evolution monitored by satellite and surface network. In this paper, we will demonstrate the capability of a new satellite algorithm, called Deep Blue, to retrieve aerosol properties, particularly but not limited to, over bright-reflecting surfaces such as urban areas and deserts. Recently, many field campaigns were designed and executed to study the compelling variability in spatial and temporal scale of both pollution-derived and naturally occurring aerosols, which often exist in high concentrations over eastern Asia and along the rim of the western Pacific. We will provide an overview of the outbreak of Asian dust storms, near source/sink and their evolution along transport pathway, from space and surface observations. The climatic effects and societal impacts of the Asian dusts will be addressed in depth. (to be presented in the International Workshop on Semi-Arid Land Surface-

Source record↗

Satellite Monitoring of Asian Dust Storms from SeaWiFS and MODIS: Source, Pathway, and Interannual Variability

Among the many components that contribute to air pollution, airborne mineral dust plays an important role due to its biogeochernical impact on the ecosystem and its radiative-forcing effect on the climate system. In East Asia, dust storms frequently accompany the cold and dry air masses that occur as part of springtime cold front systems. China's capital, Beijing, and other large cities are on the primary pathway of these dust storm plumes, and their passage over such population centers causes flight delays, pushes grit through windows and doors, and forces people indoors. Furthermore, during the spring these anthropogenic and natural air pollutants, once generated over the source regions, can be transported out of the boundary layer into the free troposphere and can travel thousands of kilometers across the Pacific into the United States and beyond. In this paper, we will demonstrate the capability of a new satellite algorithm to retrieve aerosol optical thickness and single scattering albedo over bright reflecting surfaces such as urban areas and deserts. Such retrievals have been difficult to perform using previously available algorithms that use wavelengths from the mid-visible to the near IR because they have trouble separating the aerosol signal from the contribution due to the bright surface reflectance. The new algorithm, called Deep Blue, utilizes blue-wavelength measurements from instruments such as SeaWiFS and MODIS to infer the properties of aerosols, since the surface reflectance over land in the blue part of the spectrum is much lower than for longer wavelength channels. We have validated the satellite retrieved aerosol optical thickness with data from AERONET sunphotometers over desert and semi-desert regions. The comparisons show reasonable agreements between these two. These new satellite products will allow scientists to determine quantitatively the aerosol properties near sources using high spatial resolution measurements from SeaWiFS and MODIS-like instruments. The multiyear satellite measurements since 1998 from SeaWiFS will be utilized to investigate the interannual variability of source, pathway, and dust loading associated with these dust outbreaks in East Asia. The monthly averaged aerosol optical thickness during the springtime from SeaWiFS will also be compared with the MODIS Deep Blue products.

Hsu, N. Christina↗

Dst Index in the 2008 GEM Modeling Challenge - Model Performance for Moderate and Strong Magnetic Storms

The GEM 2008 modeling challenge efforts are expanding beyond comparing in-situ measurements in the magnetosphere and ionosphere to include the computation of indices to be compared. The Dst index measures the largest deviations of the horizontal magnetic field at 4 equatorial magnetometers from the quiet-time background field and is commonly used to track the strength of the magnetic disturbance of the magnetosphere during storms. Models can calculate a proxy Dst index in various ways, including using the Dessler-Parker Sckopke relation and the energy of the ring current and Biot-Savart integration of electric currents in the magnetosphere. The GEM modeling challenge investigates 4 space weather events and we compare models available at CCMC against each other and the observed values of Ost. Models used include SWMF/BATSRUS, OpenGGCM, LFM, GUMICS (3D magnetosphere MHD models), Fok-RC, CRCM, RAM-SCB (kinetic drift models of the ring current), WINDMI (magnetosphere-ionosphere electric circuit model), and predictions based on an impulse response function (IRF) model and analytic coupling functions with inputs of solar wind data. In addition to the analysis of model-observation comparisons we look at the way Dst is computed in global magnetosphere models. The default value of Dst computed by the SWMF model is for Bz the Earth's center. In addition to this, we present results obtained at different locations on the Earth's surface. We choose equatorial locations at local noon, dusk (18:00 hours), midnight and dawn (6:00 hours). The different virtual observatory locations reveal the variation around the earth-centered Dst value resulting from the distribution of electric currents in the magnetosphere during different phases of a storm.

Rastaetter, Lutz↗

Why do Tornados and Hail Storms Rest on Weekends?

When anthropogenic aerosols over the eastern USA during summertime are at their weekly mid-week peak, tornado and hail storm activity there is also near its weekly maximum. The weekly cycle in storm activity is statistically significant and unlikely to be due to natural variability. The pattern of variability supports the hypothesis that air pollution aerosols invigorate deep convective clouds in a moist, unstable atmosphere, to the extent of inducing production of large hailstones and tornados. This is caused by the effect of aerosols on cloud-drop nucleation, making cloud drops smaller, delaying precipitation-forming processes and their evaporation, and hence affecting cloud dynamics.

Rosenfeld, Daniel↗

Trace Species Identified in Saturn's Northern Storm Region

The massive storm at 40degN on Saturn that began in December 2010 has produced significant and lasting effects in the northern hemisphere on temperature and species abundances [I}. The northern storm region was observed at 0.5/cm spectral resolution in March 2011 by Cassini's Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS). Temperatures in the stratosphere as high as 190 K were derived from CIRS spectra in warm regions referred to as "beacons". Other longitudes exhibit cold temperatures in the upper troposphere. These unusual conditions allow us to identify rare species such as C4H2, C3H4, and CO2 in the stratosphere, as well as to measure changes in the abundance of phosphine (PH3) in the troposphere. Phosphine is a disequilibrium species whose abundance is a tracer of upwelling from the deep atmosphere.

Bjoraker, Gordon L.↗