Risk-Informed Maritime Spent Fuel Transportation
South Korea is facing a shortage of Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) storage space. The country generates approximately 760 metric tons of SNF annually out of its 23 Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Until any terminal solutions of the back-end fuel cycle is decided, there exists the need to relocate these SNF assemblies from relatively packed storage pools to the more vacant ones. Since NPPs in South Korea are situated at coastal sites, the maritime mode of transportation is more practical for this purpose in comparison to land and air ones. The primary risk factors in this transportation mode, based on the data collected by the Korea Maritime Institute from 1981 until 2013, are ship collision and engine damage. However, because ship collision may initiate other accident types such as sinking, fire or engine damage, it may be considered as the most hazardous event. It is therefore a significant interest to calculate the likelihood of this event. This paper proposes a risk assessment methodology on the maritime SNF transportation in the form of the quantification of ship collision probability. To demonstrate the applicability of the methodology, a transportation case study in South Korea is presented. (authors)