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Kinematic and Energetic Properties of the 2012 March 12 Polar Coronal Mass Ejection

We report on the energetics of the 2012 March 12 polar coronal mass ejection (CME) originating from a southern latitude of approximately 60deg. The polar CME is similar to low-latitude (LL) CMEs in almost all respects: three-part morphology; post-eruption arcade (PEA), CME, and filament kinematics; CME mass and kinetic energy; and the relative thermal energy content of the PEA. From polarized brightness images, we estimate the CME mass, which is close to the average mass of LL CMEs. The CME kinetic energy (3.3 × 10(sup 30) erg) is also typical of the general population of CMEs. From photospheric magnetograms, we estimate the free energy (1.8 × 10(sup 31) erg) in the polar crown source region, which we find is sufficient to power the CME and the PEA. About 19% of the free energy went into the CME kinetic energy. We compute the thermal energy content of the PEA (2.3 × 10(sup 29) erg) and find it to be a small fraction (6.8%) of the CME kinetic energy. This fraction is remarkably similar to that in active region CMEs associated with major flares. We also show that the 2012 March 12 is one among scores of polar CMEs observed during the maximum phase of cycle 24. The cycle 24 polar crown prominence eruptions have the same rate of association with CMEs as those from LLs. This investigation supports the view that all CMEs are magnetically propelled from closed field regions, irrespective of their location on the Sun (polar crown filament regions, quiescent filament regions, or active regions).

filaments↗

Nearly a Decade of CALIPSO Observations of Asian and Saharan Dust Properties Near Source and Transport Regions

The lidar on the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) mission, makes robust measurements of dust and has generated a length of record that is significant both seasonally and inter-annually. We exploit this record to determine a multi-year climatology of the properties of Asian and Saharan dust, in particular seasonal optical depths, layer frequencies, and layer heights of dust gridded in accordance with the Level 3 data products protocol, between 2006-2015. The data are screened using standard CALIPSO quality assurance flags, cloud aerosol discrimination (CAD) scores, overlying features and layer properties. To evaluate the effects of transport on the morphology, vertical extent and size of the dust layers, we compare probability distribution functions of the layer integrated volume depolarization ratios, geometric depths and integrated attenuated color ratios near the source to the same distributions in the far field or transport region. CALIPSO is collaboration between NASA and Centre National D'études Spatiales (CNES), was launched in April 2006 to provide vertically resolved measurements of cloud and aerosol distributions. The primary instrument on the CALIPSO satellite is the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP), a near-nadir viewing two-wavelength polarization-sensitive instrument. The unique nature of CALIOP measurements make it quite challenging to validate backscatter profiles, aerosol type, and cloud phase, all of which are used to retrieve extinction and optical depth. To evaluate the uncertainty in the lidar ratios, we compare the values computed from dust layers overlying opaque water clouds, considered nominal, with the constant lidar ratio value used in the CALIOP algorithms for dust. We also explore the effects of noise on the CALIOP retrievals at daytime by comparing the distributions of the properties at daytime to the nighttime distributions.

Omar, Ali H.↗

System and Method for Outlier Detection via Estimating Clusters

An efficient method and system for real-time or offline analysis of multivariate sensor data for use in anomaly detection, fault detection, and system health monitoring is provided. Models automatically derived from training data, typically nominal system data acquired from sensors in normally operating conditions or from detailed simulations, are used to identify unusual, out of family data samples (outliers) that indicate possible system failure or degradation. Outliers are determined through analyzing a degree of deviation of current system behavior from the models formed from the nominal system data. The deviation of current system behavior is presented as an easy to interpret numerical score along with a measure of the relative contribution of each system parameter to any off-nominal deviation. The techniques described herein may also be used to "clean" the training data.

Iverson, David J.↗

40 Years of Processing Pieces of Space

This year marks the 40th year anniversary for the Antarctic Search for Meteorite (ANSMET) program. In 1976, the ANSMET program led the first expedition to Antarctica. The ANSMET program is a US-led field-based science project that recovers meteorite samples from Antarctica. Once a year from late November to late January, a field team consisting of 8 to 12 people, spends 6-8 weeks camping on the ice and collecting meteorites. Since 1976, more than 22,000 meteorite samples have been recovered. These meteorites come from asteroids, planets and other bodies of the solar system. Once collected, the Antarctic meteorites are shipped to NASA/Johnson Space Center (JSC) Houston, TX. in a refrigerated truck and are kept frozen to minimize oxidation until they are ready for initial processing. In Antarctica each meteorite is given a field tag which consists of numbers, once in the lab, this is replaced by an official tag, consisting of the Antarctic field location and year collected. The types and numbers of meteorites that have been classified include 849 carbonaceous chondrites, 135 enstatites, 512 achondrites, 64 stony, 115 irons, 48 others (27 R chondrites, 7 ungrouped), 6,161 H chondrites, 7,668 L chondrites, and 4,589 LL chondrites. Although 80-85 percent of the collected meteorites fall in the ordinary chondrite group, the other approximately 15 percent represent rare types of achondrites and carbonaceous chondrites. These rare meteorites include 25 lunar meteorites, 15 Martian meteorites, scores of various types of carbonaceous chondrites, and unique achondrites. The Antarctic meteorites that have been collected are processed in the Meteorite Processing Lab at JSC in Houston, TX. Initial processing of the meteorites begins with thawing/drying the meteorites in a nitrogen glove box for 24 to 48 hours. The meteorites are then photographed, measured, weighed and a description of the interior and exterior of each meteorite is written. The meteorite is broken and a representative sample, either a 1-3 gram chip or thin section is sent to the Smithsonian Institution for classification. After Antarctic meteorites have been classified and approved by the Nomenclature Committee of the Meteoritical Society, they are announced in the Antarctic Meteorite Newsletter, which is published twice per year (fall and spring) so that scientists may review which meteorites are available to study. Requests for Antarctic Meteorite samples are welcomed from research scientists, regardless of their current state of funding for meteorite studies. Since its inception over 3,300 requests have been made for pieces of these meteorites and over 400 investigators worldwide are active in the study of meteorites.. Research on these samples has been published in more than1500 peer reviewed articles; a listing of papers for any meteorite sample can be generated by accessing http://curator.jsc.nasa.gov/antmet/referencesearch.cfm. Antarctic meteorite samples requested by scientists are prepared several different ways. Most samples are prepared as chips, either using a rock splitter or using a chisel and chipping bowl. In special situations, a researcher may request a meteorite slab in which case the samples are cut using a diamond-bladed bandsaw inside of a dry nitrogen glove box. The meteorites are always cut in a 100 percent liquid-free environment. Additionally, thin/thick sections of Antarctic meteorites are also prepared at JSC. The meteorite thin section lab at JSC can prepare standard 30-micron thin sections, thick sections of variable thickness (100 to 200 microns), or demountable sections using superglue, all section are prepared without using water. Although many of the techniques used back in the '70's are still used today, advances in computers, software, databases, available tools and instrumentation have helped to streamline and shorten the duration of the classification process. In conjunction with present day missions to asteroids and other planets, meteorite studies have not only led to a better understanding of the complex histories of these bodies but have also tied certain meteorite groups to particular asteroid bodies. New meteorite discoveries by the ANSMET program provide a cost effective method for obtaining samples of previously unsampled bodies, allowing scientists to learn more about the origin, composition, and evolution of the solar system. Preservation in our cleanrooms at NASA allows material to be archived for future generations and advances in instrumentation and analysis.

Satterwhite, C. E.↗

Reaching the Diffraction Limit - Differential Speckle and Wide-Field Imaging for the Gemini-N Telescope

Speckle imaging allows telescopes to achieve di raction limited imaging performance. The technique requires cameras capable of reading out frames at a very fast rate, e ectively `freezing out' atmospheric seeing. The resulting speckles can be correlated and images reconstructed that are at the di raction limit of the telescope. These new instruments are based on the successful performance and design of the Di erential Speckle Survey Instrument (DSSI) [2, 1]. The instruments are being built for the Gemini-N and WIYN telescopes and will be made available to the community via the peer review proposal process. We envision their primary use to be validation and characterization of exoplanet targets from the NASA K2 and TESS missions and RV discovered exoplanets. Such targets will provide excellent follow-up candidates for both the WIYN and Gemini telescopes [3]. Examples of DSSI data are shown in the gures below. We expect similar data quality in speckle imaging mode with the new instruments. Additionally, both cameras will have a wide- eld mode and standard SDSS lters. They will be highly versatile instruments and it is that likely many other science programs will request time on the cameras. The limiting magnitude for speckle observations, will remain around 13-14th at WIYN and 16-17th at Gemini, while wide- eld, normal CCD imaging operation should be able to go to much fainter, providing usual CCD imaging and photometric capabilities. The instruments will also have high utility as scoring cameras for telescope engineering purposes, or other applications where high time resolution is needed. Instrument support will be provided, including a software pipeline that takes raw speckle data to fully reconstructed images.

Gemini-N↗

Reaching the Diffraction Limit - Differential Speckle and Wide-Field Imaging for the WIYN Telescope

Speckle imaging allows telescopes to achieve diffraction limited imaging performance. The technique requires cameras capable of reading out frames at a very fast rate, effectively 'freezing out' atmospheric seeing. The resulting speckles can be correlated and images reconstructed that are at the diffraction limit of the telescope. These new instruments are based on the successful performance and design of the Differential Speckle Survey Instrument (DSSI).The instruments are being built for the Gemini-N and WIYN telescopes and will be made available to the community via the peer review proposal process. We envision their primary use to be validation and characterization of exoplanet targets from the NASA, K2 and TESS missions and RV discovered exoplanets. Such targets will provide excellent follow-up candidates for both the WIYN and Gemini telescopes. We expect similar data quality in speckle imaging mode with the new instruments. Additionally, both cameras will have a wide-field mode and standard SDSS filters. They will be highly versatile instruments and it is that likely many other science programs will request time on the cameras. The limiting magnitude for speckle observations will remain around 13-14th at WIYN and 16-17th at Gemini, while wide-field, normal CCD imaging operation should be able to go to much fainter, providing usual CCD imaging and photometric capabilities. The instruments will also have high utility as scoring cameras for telescope engineering purposes, or other applications where high time resolution is needed. Instrument support will be provided, including a software pipeline that takes raw speckle data to fully reconstructed images.

detector↗

Human Health Countermeasures - Partial-Gravity Analogs Workshop

The experimental conditions that were deemed the most interesting by the HHC Element lead scientists are those permitting studies of the long-term effects of exposure to (a) chronic rotation when supine or in head down tilt (ground-based); and (b) long-radius centrifugation (space based). It is interesting to note that chronic ground based slow rotation room studies have not been performed since the 1960's, when the USA and USSR were investigating the potential use of AG for long-duration space missions. On the other hand, the other partial gravity analogs, i.e., parabolic flight, HUT, suspension, and short-radius centrifugation, have been regularly used in the last three decades (see review in Clément et al. 2015). Based on the workshop evaluations and the scores by the HHC scientific disciplines indicated in tables 3 and 4, simulation of partial G between 0 and 1 should be prioritized as follows: Priority 1. Chronic space-based partial-G analogs: a. Chronic space-based long-radius centrifugation. The ideal scenario would be chronic long-radius centrifugation of cells, animals and humans in a translational research approach - ideally beyond low earth orbit under deep space environmental effects and at various rotations - to obtain different G-effects. In this scenario, all physiological systems could be evaluated and the relationship between physiological response and G level established. This would be the most integrative way of defining, for the first time ever, G-thresholds for each physiological system. b. Chronic space-based centrifugation of animals. Chronic centrifugation of rodents at various G levels in space would allow for determination of AG thresholds of protection for each physiological system. In this case, all physiological systems will be of interest. Intermittent centrifugation will be of secondary interest. c. Chronic space-based centrifugation of cell cultures (RWV). Bioreactor studies of cells and cell cultures of various tissues at various G levels would allow for intracellular investigations of the effects of partial-G. Priority 2. Acute, intermittent space based partial-G analogs: a. Acute, intermittent space-based short radius human centrifugation. Intermittent centrifugation of humans would allow determination of thresholds of AG for protection of astronaut health in space. Priority 3. Chronic ground-based partial-G analogs: a. Chronic centrifugation of supine or head-down tilted humans. b. Chronic head-up tilt in humans. c. Chronic head-out graded dry immersion in humans. d. Chronic partial suspension of rodents e. Chronic rotating bioreactor cell culture studies (RWV) Priority 4. Acute ground based partial-G analogs. a. Parabolic flights. Very acute and short term effects of G levels between 0 and 1 in humans for fast responding systems like cardiovascular and sensorimotor as well as for acute responses in cell cultures and animals. b. Other acute models as indicated in table 3.

Barr, Yael↗

Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Optimization Version 4.0 Functional Improvements

The IMMs ability to assess mission outcome risk levels relative to available resources provides a unique capability to provide guidance on optimal operational medical kit and vehicle resources. Post-processing optimization allows IMM to optimize essential resources to improve a specific model outcome such as maximization of the Crew Health Index (CHI), or minimization of the probability of evacuation (EVAC) or the loss of crew life (LOCL). Mass and or volume constrain the optimized resource set. The IMMs probabilistic simulation uses input data on one hundred medical conditions to simulate medical events that may occur in spaceflight, the resources required to treat those events, and the resulting impact to the mission based on specific crew and mission characteristics. Because IMM version 4.0 provides for partial treatment for medical events, IMM Optimization 4.0 scores resources at the individual resource unit increment level as opposed to the full condition-specific treatment set level, as done in version 3.0. This allows the inclusion of as many resources as possible in the event that an entire set of resources called out for treatment cannot satisfy the constraints. IMM Optimization version 4.0 adds capabilities that increase efficiency by creating multiple resource sets based on differing constraints and priorities, CHI, EVAC, or LOCL. It also provides sets of resources that improve mission-related IMM v4.0 outputs with improved performance compared to the prior optimization. The new optimization represents much improved fidelity that will improve the utility of the IMM 4.0 for decision support.

risk assessment↗

Estimation of the Ocean Skin Temperature using the NASA GEOS Atmospheric Data Assimilation System

This report documents the status of the development of a sea surface temperature (SST) analysis for the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Version-5 atmospheric data assimilation system (ADAS). Its implementation is part of the steps being taken toward the development of an integrated earth system analysis. Currently, GEOS-ADAS SST is a bulk ocean temperature (from ocean boundary conditions), and is almost identical to the skin sea surface temperature. Here we describe changes to the atmosphere-ocean interface layer of the GEOS-atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to include near surface diurnal warming and cool-skin effects. We also added SST relevant Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) observations to the GEOS-ADAS observing system. We provide a detailed description of our analysis of these observations, along with the modifications to the interface between the GEOS atmospheric general circulation model, gridpoint statistical interpolation-based atmospheric analysis and the community radiative transfer model. Our experiments (with and without these changes) show improved assimilation of satellite radiance observations. We obtained a closer fit to withheld, in-situ buoys measuring near-surface SST. Evaluation of forecast skill scores corroborate improvements seen in the observation fits. Along with a discussion of our results, we also include directions for future work.

AGCM↗

NASA's Hydrogen Outpost: The Rocket Systems Area at Plum Brook Station

"There was pretty much a general knowledge about hydrogen and its capabilities," recalled former researcher Robert Graham. "The question was, could you use it in a rocket engine? Do we have the technology to handle it? How will it cool? Will it produce so much heat release that we can't cool the engine? These were the questions that we had to address." The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Glenn Research Center, referred to historically as the Lewis Research Center, made a concerted effort to answer these and related questions in the 1950s and 1960s. The center played a critical role transforming hydrogen's theoretical potential into a flight-ready propellant. Since then NASA has utilized liquid hydrogen to send humans and robots to the Moon, propel dozens of spacecraft across the universe, orbit scores of satellite systems, and power 135 space shuttle flights. Rocket pioneers had recognized hydrogen's potential early on, but its extremely low boiling temperature and low density made it impracticable as a fuel. The Lewis laboratory first demonstrated that liquid hydrogen could be safely utilized in rocket and aircraft propulsion systems, then perfected techniques to store, pump, and cleanly burn the fuel, as well as use it to cool the engine. The Rocket Systems Area at Lewis's remote testing area, Plum Brook Station, played a little known, but important role in the center's hydrogen research efforts. This publication focuses on the activities at the Rocket Systems Area, but it also discusses hydrogen's role in NASA's space program and Lewis's overall hydrogen work. The Rocket Systems Area included nine physically modest test sites and three test stands dedicated to liquid-hydrogen-related research. In 1962 Cleveland Plain Dealer reporter Karl Abram claimed, "The rocket facility looks more like a petroleum refinery. Its test rigs sprout pipes, valves and tanks. During the night test runs, excess hydrogen is burned from special stacks in the best Oklahoma oil field tradition." Besides the Rocket Systems Area, Plum Brook Station also included a nuclear test reactor, a large vacuum tank, a hypersonic wind tunnel, and a full-scale upper-stage rocket stand. The Rocket Systems Area operated from 1961 until NASA shut down all of Plum Brook in 1974. The center reopened Plum Brook in the late 1980s and continues to use several test facilities. The Rocket Systems Area, however, was not restored. Today Plum Brook resembles a nature preserve more than an oil refinery. Lush fields and forests separate the large test facilities. Until recently, the abandoned Rocket Systems Area structures and equipment were visible amongst the greenery. These space-age ruins, particularly the three towers, stood as silent sentinels over the sparsely populated reservation. Few knew the story of these mysterious facilities when NASA removed them in the late 2000s.

Rocket Systems↗

Autonomous Diagnostic Imaging Performed by Untrained Operators using Augmented Reality as a Form of "Just-in-Time" Training

We will address the Human Factors and Performance Team, "Risk of performance errors due to training deficiencies" by improving the JIT training materials for ultrasound and OCT imaging by providing advanced guidance in a detailed, timely, and user-friendly manner. Specifically, we will (1) develop an audio-visual tutorial using AR that guides non-experts through an abdominal trauma ultrasound protocol; (2) develop an audio-visual tutorial using AR to guide an untrained operator through the acquisition of OCT images; (3) evaluate the quality of abdominal ultrasound and OCT images acquired by untrained operators using AR guidance compared to images acquired using traditional JIT techniques (laptop-based training conducted before image acquisition); and (4) compare the time required to complete imaging studies using AR tutorials with images acquired using current JIT practices to identify areas for time efficiency improvements. Two groups of subjects will be recruited to participate in this study. Operator-subjects, without previous experience in ultrasound or OCT, will be asked to perform both procedures using either the JIT training with AR technology or the traditional JIT training via laptop. Images acquired by inexperienced operator-subjects will be scored by experts in that imaging modality for diagnostic and research quality; experts will be blinded to the form of JIT used to acquire the images. Operator-subjects also will be asked to submit feedback to improve the training modules used during the scans to improve future training modules. Scanned-subjects will be a small group individuals from whom all images will be acquired.

Martin, D. S.↗

Validation of a Manually Oscillating Chair for In-The-Field Assessment of Dynamic Visual Acuity on Crewmembers Within Hours of Returning From Long-Duration Spaceflight

Long-duration spaceflight results in sensorimotor adaptations, which cause functional deficits during gravitational transitions, such as landing on a planetary surface after long-duration microgravity exposure. Both the vestibular system and the central nervous system are affected by gravitational transitions. These systems are responsible for coordinating head and eye movements via the vestibulo-ocular reflex (VOR) and go through an adaptation period upon exposure to microgravity. Consequently, they must also re-adapt to Earth's gravitational environment upon landing. This re-adaptation causes decrements in gaze control and dynamic visual acuity, with crewmembers reporting oscillopsia and blurred vision caused by retinal slip, or the inability to keep an image focused on their retina. This is thought to drive motion sickness symptoms experienced by most crewmembers following landing. Retinal slip can be estimated by dynamic visual acuity (DVA); visual acuity while in motion. Previously, DVA has been assessed in the laboratory where subjects walked at 6.4 km/hr on a motorized treadmill. Using this method, Peters et al. (2011) found that DVA is worsened in astronauts by an average of 0.75 eye-chart lines one day after landing. However, it is believed that re-adaptation occurs quickly and that DVA might be worse immediately upon re-exposure to a gravitational environment. Since many crewmembers are unable to walk safely upon landing, it was necessary to develop a method for replicating the vertical head movements associated with walking. In addition, the use of a chair to imitate the head displacement caused by walking isolates eye-head interactions without allowing for trunk and lower-body compensation, as seen with treadmill walking (Mulavara & Bloomberg 2003). Therefore, a modality for assessing DVA in the field within a few hours of landing was developed. In this study, we validated the ability of a manually operated oscillating chair to reproduce the oscillatory frequency of walking on a treadmill. Healthy non-astronaut subjects (n=14) participated in one test session and completed three static (seated) and three dynamic (walking/oscillated) visual acuity tests. DVA was assessed using a motorized treadmill, an automated oscillating chair, and a manually operated chair, both developed in the Neuroscience Laboratory at JSC. The automated chair was motor-driven and set to oscillate vertically at 2 Hz with a vertical displacement of +/- 5 cm to simulate vertical translation while walking. The manually operated chair was oscillated vertically by a test operator to the beat of a metronome at 120 beats/min (2 Hz) and a vertical displacement of approximately +/- 5 cm. As the subject was oscillated, they were asked to discern the direction gap of Landolt-C optotypes of varying sizes and verbally reported the direction while an operator recorded their response using a gamepad. Subjects were outfitted with accelerometers (sampling rate = 128 Hz) on their head, trunk and lumbar spine. A fast Fourier transform was performed on the vertical trunk acceleration to compare the peak and spread of the distribution of oscillation frequencies for each oscillating condition. The spread of the frequency distribution for the manual chair was not significantly different from either the treadmill or the automated chair. However, all three conditions had similar non-zero standard error values, suggesting a variance in head movement frequency which may affect DVA. The average oscillation frequency of the manual chair (1.85 Hz) was significantly different (α=0.05) from that of treadmill walking (2.24 Hz), but not significantly different from that of the automated chair (1.85 Hz) and all three conditions had small standard errors (SEM = 0.04, 0.06, and 0.08 Hz for manual, treadmill, and automated respectively). This implies that both chairs oscillate at a frequency below that of treadmill walking, but are comparable to each other and reproducible across sessions. Additionally, DVA scores did not vary significantly across conditions. The smaller spread values of the oscillating chairs' frequencies indicated mitigation of variation induced by locomotor strategies, which enables better examination of the issue of VOR adaptation. Furthermore, due to the deconditioned state of crewmembers in the initial hours after landing, it is easier to transport a manual bouncing chair into the field and safer to perform a vision test while seated in a chair versus walking on a treadmill. Therefore, the manually oscillating chair has been deemed to meet and exceed the DVA testing capabilities previously obtained by treadmill walking.

Kreutzberg, G. A.↗

Application of Machine Learning to Rotorcraft Health Monitoring

Machine learning is a powerful tool for data exploration and model building with large data sets. This project aimed to use machine learning techniques to explore the inherent structure of data from rotorcraft gear tests, relationships between features and damage states, and to build a system for predicting gear health for future rotorcraft transmission applications. Classical machine learning techniques are difficult, if not irresponsible to apply to time series data because many make the assumption of independence between samples. To overcome this, Hidden Markov Models were used to create a binary classifier for identifying scuffing transitions and Recurrent Neural Networks were used to leverage long distance relationships in predicting discrete damage states. When combined in a workflow, where the binary classifier acted as a filter for the fatigue monitor, the system was able to demonstrate accuracy in damage state prediction and scuffing identification. The time dependent nature of the data restricted data exploration to collecting and analyzing data from the model selection process. The limited amount of available data was unable to give useful information, and the division of training and testing sets tended to heavily influence the scores of the models across combinations of features and hyper-parameters. This work built a framework for tracking scuffing and fatigue on streaming data and demonstrates that machine learning has much to offer rotorcraft health monitoring by using Bayesian learning and deep learning methods to capture the time dependent nature of the data. Suggested future work is to implement the framework developed in this project using a larger variety of data sets to test the generalization capabilities of the models and allow for data exploration.

machine learning↗

Validation of a Manually Oscillating Chair for In-The-Field Assessment of Dynamic Visual Acuity on Crewmembers Within Hours of Returning from Long-Duration Spaceflight

Due to the deconditioned state of crewmembers in the initial hours after landing, it is safer and more practical to perform a vision test while seated in a chair versus walking on a treadmill. The purpose of this study was to validate the ability of a manually operated oscillating chair to produce the oscillatory frequency and displacement equivalent of walking on a treadmill at a 4 mph pace. A fast Fourier transform (FFT)was performed on the vertical trunk acceleration to compare the peak and spread of the distribution of oscillation frequencies for each oscillating condition. Peak oscillation frequencies achieved with the manual chair were lower and more variable than those of treadmill walking and the automatic chair. This can mostly be attributed to operator fatigue. However, DVA scores across conditions were not significantly different, indicating that the manual chair can provide adequate vertical oscillation frequency and displacement with the added advantage of being portable enough for testing outside a laboratory. Furthermore the automatic chair very closely matches the oscillation frequency of treadmill walking, making it an ideal method for testing DVA in a laboratory setting.

Kreutzberg, G. A.↗

Autonomous Diagnostic Imaging Performed by Untrained Operator Using Augmented Reality as a Form of "Just-in-Time" Training

We will address the Human Factors and Performance Team, "Risk of performance errors due to training deficiencies" by improving the JIT training materials for ultrasound and OCT imaging by providing advanced guidance in a detailed, timely, and user-friendly manner. Specifically, we will (1) develop an audio-visual tutorial using AR that guides non-experts through an abdominal trauma ultrasound protocol; (2) develop an audio-visual tutorial using AR to guide an untrained operator through the acquisition of OCT images; (3) evaluate the quality of abdominal ultrasound and OCT images acquired by untrained operators using AR guidance compared to images acquired using traditional JIT techniques (laptop-based training conducted before image acquisition); and (4) compare the time required to complete imaging studies using AR tutorials with images acquired using current JIT practices to identify areas for time efficiency improvements. Two groups of subjects will be recruited to participate in this study. Operator-subjects, without previous experience in ultrasound or OCT, will be asked to perform both procedures using either the JIT training with AR technology or the traditional JIT training via laptop. Images acquired by inexperienced operator-subjects will be scored by experts in that imaging modality for diagnostic and research quality; experts will be blinded to the form of JIT used to acquire the images. Operator-subjects also will be asked to submit feedback to improve the training modules used during the scans to improve future training modules. Scanned-subjects will be a small group individuals from whom all images will be acquired.

Martin, David S.↗

Community-Wide Validation of Geospace Model Local K-Index Predictions to Support Model Transition to Operations

We present the latest result of a community-wide space weather model validation effort coordinated among the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), model developers, and the broader science community. Validation of geospace models is a critical activity for both building confidence in the science results produced by the models and in assessing the suitability of the models for transition to operations. Indeed, a primary motivation of this work is supporting NOAA/SWPCs effort to select a model or models to be transitioned into operations. Our validation efforts focus on the ability of the models to reproduce a regional index of geomagnetic disturbance, the local K-index. Our analysis includes six events representing a range of geomagnetic activity conditions and six geomagnetic observatories representing midlatitude and high-latitude locations. Contingency tables, skill scores, and distribution metrics are used for the quantitative analysis of model performance. We consider model performance on an event-by-event basis, aggregated over events, at specific station locations, and separated into high-latitude and midlatitude domains. A summary of results is presented in this report, and an online tool for detailed analysis is available at the CCMC.

Glocer, A.↗

Comparative Analysis of NOAA REFM and SNB3GEO Tools for the Forecast of the Fluxes of High-Energy Electrons at GEO

Reliable forecasts of relativistic electrons at geostationary orbit (GEO) are important for the mitigation of their hazardous effects on spacecraft at GEO. For a number of years the Space Weather Prediction Center at NOAA has provided advanced online forecasts of the fluence of electrons with energy >2 MeV at GEO using the Relativistic Electron Forecast Model (REFM). The REFM forecasts are based on real-time solar wind speed observations at L1. The high reliability of this forecasting tool serves as a benchmark for the assessment of other forecasting tools. Since 2012 the Sheffield SNB3GEO model has been operating online, providing a 24 h ahead forecast of the same fluxes. In addition to solar wind speed, the SNB3GEO forecasts use solar wind density and interplanetary magnetic field B(sub z) observations at L1. The period of joint operation of both of these forecasts has been used to compare their accuracy. Daily averaged measurements of electron fluxes by GOES 13 have been used to estimate the prediction efficiency of both forecasting tools. To assess the reliability of both models to forecast infrequent events of very high fluxes, the Heidke skill score was employed. The results obtained indicate that SNB3GEO provides a more accurate 1 day ahead forecast when compared to REFM. It is shown that the correction methodology utilized by REFM potentially can improve the SNB3GEO forecast.

Balikhin, M. A.↗

Anomalous Temporal Behaviour of Broadband Ly Alpha Observations During Solar Flares from SDO/EVE

Although it is the most prominent emission line in the solar spectrum, there has been a notable lack of studies devoted to variations in Lyman-alpha (Ly-alpha) emission during solar flares in recent years. However, the few examples that do exist have shown Ly-alpha emission to be a substantial radiator of the total energy budget of solar flares (of the order of 10 percent). It is also a known driver of fluctuations in the Earth's ionosphere. The EUV (Extreme Ultra-Violet) Variability Experiment (EVE) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) now provides broadband, photometric Ly-alpha data at 10-second cadence with its Multiple EUV Grating Spectrograph-Photometer (MEGS-P) component, and has observed scores of solar flares in the 5 years since it was launched. However, the MEGS-P time profiles appear to display a rise time of tens of minutes around the time of the flare onset. This is in stark contrast to the rapid, impulsive increase observed in other intrinsically chromospheric features (H-alpha, Ly-beta, LyC, C III, etc.). Furthermore, the emission detected by MEGS-P peaks around the time of the peak of thermal soft X-ray emission and not during the impulsive phase when energy deposition in the chromosphere (often assumed to be in the form of non-thermal electrons) is greatest. The time derivative of Ly-alpha lightcurves also appears to resemble that of the time derivative of soft X-rays, reminiscent of the Neupert effect. Given that spectrally-resolved Ly-alpha observations during flares from SORCE / SOLSTICE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment / Solar Stellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment) peak during the impulsive phase as expected, this suggests that the atypical behaviour of MEGS-P data is a manifestation of the broadband nature of the observations. This could imply that other lines andor continuum emission that becomes enhanced during flares could be contributing to the passband. Users are hereby urged to exercise caution when interpreting broadband Ly-alpha observations of solar flares. Comparisons have also been made with other broadband Ly-alpha photometers such as PROBA2 (Project for On-Board Autonomy-2) / LYRA (Lyman Alpha Radiometer) and GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) / EUVE (Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer).

Milligan, Ryan O.↗