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At least 685 records · Page 38

Climate drives modeled forest carbon cycling resistance and resilience in the Upper Great Lakes Region, USA

Forests dominate the global terrestrial carbon budget, but their ability to continue doing so in the face of a changing climate is uncertain. A key uncertainty is how forests will respond to (resistance) and recover from (resilience) rising levels of disturbance of varying intensities. This knowledge gap can optimally be addressed by integrating manipulative field experiments with ecophysiological modeling. We used the Ecosystem Demography-2.2 (ED-2.2) model to project carbon fluxes for a northern temperate deciduous forest subjected to a real-world disturbance severity manipulation experiment. ED-2.2 was run for 150 years, starting from near bare ground in 1900 (approximating the clear-cut conditions at the time), and subjected to three disturbance treatments under an ensemble of climate conditions. Both disturbance severity and climate strongly affected carbon fluxes such as gross primary production (GPP), and interacted with one another. We then calculated resistance and resilience, two dimensions of ecosystem stability. Modeled GPP exhibited a two-fold decrease in mean resistance across disturbance severities of 45%, 65%, and 85% mortality; conversely, resilience increased by a factor of two with increasing disturbance severity. This pattern held for net primary production and net ecosystem production, indicating a trade-off in which greater initial declines were followed by faster recovery. Notably, however, heterotrophic respiration responded more slowly to disturbance, and its highly variable response was affected by different drivers. This work provides insight into how future conditions might affect the functional stability of mature forests in this region under ongoing climate change and changing disturbance regimes.

Kalyn Dorheim↗

Climate drives modeled forest carbon cycling resistance and resilience in the Upper Great Lakes Region, USA

Forests dominate the global terrestrial carbon budget, but their ability to continue doing so in the face of a changing climate is uncertain. A key uncertainty is how forests will respond to (resistance) and recover from (resilience) rising levels of disturbance of varying intensities. This knowledge gap can optimally be addressed by integrating manipulative field experiments with ecophysiological modeling. We used the Ecosystem Demography-2.2 (ED-2.2)model to project carbon fluxes for a northern temperate deciduous forest subjected to a real-world disturbance severity manipulation experiment. ED-2.2 was run for 150 years, starting from near bare ground in 1900(approximating the clear-cut conditions at the time),and subjected to three disturbance treatments under an ensemble of climate conditions. Both disturbance severity and climate strongly affected carbon fluxes such as gross primary production (GPP),and interacted with one another. We then calculated resistance and resilience, two dimensions of ecosystem stability. Modeled GPP exhibited a two-fold decrease in mean resistance across disturbance severities of 45%, 65%, and 85% mortality; conversely, resilience increased by a factor of two with increasing disturbance severity. This pattern held for net primary production and net ecosystem production, indicating a trade-off in which greater initial declines were followed by faster recovery. Notably, however, heterotrophic respiration responded more slowly to disturbance, and its highly variable response was affected by different drivers. This work provides insight into how future conditions might affect the functional stability of mature forests in this region under ongoing climate change and changing disturbance regimes.

Kalyn Dorheim↗

Resilient Space Habitat Design Using Safety Controls

Space habitats will involve a complex and tightly coupled combination of hardware, software, and humans, while operating in challenging environments that pose many risks, both known and unknown. It will not be possible to design habitats that are immune to failure, nor will it be possible to foresee all possible failures. Rather than aiming for designs where ―failure is not an option,‖ habitats must be resilient to disruptions. We propose an approach to resilient design for space habitats based on the concept of safety controls from system safety engineering. We model disruptions using a state-and-trigger approach, where the space habitat is in one of three distinct states at each time instance: nominal, hazardous, or accident. We use safety controls as ways of preventing a system from entering or remaining in a hazardous or accident state. We develop a safety control option space for the habitat, from which designers can select the set of safety controls that best meet resilience, performance, and other system goals. The safety control option space is likely to be large, accordingly, we design a database that links safety controls to the applicable states and triggers. We demonstrate our approach on the early design stage of a Martian space habitat.

Safety↗

Baltimore Energy & Infrastructure: Assessing Urban Heat Vulnerability in Baltimore Neighborhoods to Inform Transportation Resiliency Planning Efforts

Across the world, climate change is altering cities and their local climate systems. Following global trends of rising mean temperatures, Baltimore, Maryland is projected to experience more frequent extreme heat events. Exacerbated by Urban Heat Island (UHI) effects, residents of the city face high temperatures from limited tree canopy, highly paved and impervious surfaces, limited air flow, and high concentrations of localized emissions. Urban heat is dispersed asymmetrically, with historically marginalized populations experiencing disproportionately severe heat. Recognizing the impacts of extreme urban heat, the Maryland Transit Administration (MTA) collaborated with us, the Spring 2024 Goddard Energy and Infrastructure NASA DEVELOP team to assess urban impacts of MTA users and assets and explore opportunities to enhance resiliency planning. We evaluated the feasibility of NASA Earth observations (EOs) in visualizing heat vulnerability in Baltimore City and County. We mapped UHI and extreme heat using remote sensing observations, tailored a Heat Priority Score (HPS) to analyze heat data in tandem with socioeconomic data from American Community Survey (ACS), and utilized SOlar and LongWave Environmental Irradiance Geometry (SOLWEIG) model to estimate MTA riders’ thermal comfort. NASA EOs served to quantify the distribution and severity of extreme heat at the block group level, which was found to correlate with a lack of vegetation and presence of densely built-up surroundings. The HPS revealed that extreme heat events most negatively impact communities that exhibit social vulnerability through indicators such as age, race, and income. These findings will inform neighborhood resiliency plans for the MTA that can be incorporated into their Adaptation Resiliency Toolbox (ART).

Baltimore,↗

Cyber-Physical Correlations for Infrastructure Resilience: A Game-Theoretic Approach

In several critical infrastructures, the cyber and physical parts are correlated so that disruptions to one affect the other and hence the whole system. These correlations may be exploited to strategically launch components attacks, and hence must be accounted for ensuring the infrastructure resilience, specified by its survival probability. We characterize the cyber-physical interactions at two levels: (i) the failure correlation function specifies the conditional survival probability of cyber sub-infrastructure given the physical sub-infrastructure as a function of their marginal probabilities, and (ii) the individual survival probabilities of both sub-infrastructures are characterized by first-order differential conditions. We formulate a resilience problem for infrastructures composed of discrete components as a game between the provider and attacker, wherein their utility functions consist of an infrastructure survival probability term and a cost term expressed in terms of the number of components attacked and reinforced. We derive Nash Equilibrium conditions and sensitivity functions that highlight the dependence of infrastructure resilience on the cost term, correlation function and sub-infrastructure survival probabilities. These results generalize earlier ones based on linear failure correlation functions and independent component failures. We apply the results to models of cloud computing infrastructures and energy grids.

cyber-physical infrastructures↗

Resilient Control Systems Practical Metrics Basis for Defining Mission Impact

"Resilience” describes how systems operate at an acceptable level of normalcy despite disturbances or threats. In this paper we first consider the cognitive, cyber-physical interdependencies inherent in critical infrastructure systems and how resilience differs from reliability to mitigate these risks. Terminology and metrics basis are provided to integrate the cognitive, cyber-physical aspects that should be considered when defining solutions for resilience. A practical approach is taken to roll this metrics basis up to system integrity and business case metrics that establish “proper operation” and “impact.” A notional chemical processing plant is the use case for demonstrating how the system integrity metrics can be applied to establish performance, and

42 ENGINEERING↗

Microgrid optimized resource dispatch for public-purpose resiliency and sustainability. The Olney Town Center Microgrid Project

Communities in Atlantic coastal regions have in recent years sought to improve the resiliency of their critical infrastructure and public services, especially to protect against hurricanes and other events capable of causing widespread damage and disruption. As the backbone of any community’s critical functions, the electricity distribution system requires high resiliency in order to maintain local energy delivery services. Against this backdrop, the Project sought to develop a resilient energy microgrid control system capable of integrating distributed renewable energy resources, natural gas CHP units, energy storage, and demand-side management technologies in near-real-time optimization schemes for the community of Olney, Md. The Montgomery County Planning Board in 2005 established the Olney Town Center area as a “civic center/town commons,” in part because it serves as a key point of interaction in the community – but also because it contains numerous vital community assets. With a total peak electrical load of about 8 MW (including Montgomery General Hospital with a 2.4 MW peak), the Project area is a business and essential services area, directly serving a suburban population of more than 33,000 residents. It contains a hospital, police station, two fire stations, two schools, grocery stores, and gas stations, and the community’s water tower, among other things. Moreover, the location stands at the crossroads of two state highways that represent major regional arteries for commerce and public safety in Montgomery County. These characteristics made the Project area an appropriate setting for considering microgrid deployment. It presented a model of a typical Maryland suburban community, with geographic dispersion of vital assets over a sizeable area, and a combination of overhead distribution lines and underground cables serving those critical loads. Such a representative model helped to ensure the solutions developed and the scenarios tested would be readily applicable to other communities in the state and the region. Further, the Project’s outcomes and lessons provide insights to guide community microgrid design and development in many locations. To achieve Project objectives – including those established by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory – the Project team researched, developed, and tested in simulation a set of microgrid controls capable of maintaining electricity supplies for critical community loads in the event of a regional utility outage lasting many days or even weeks. Testing and analysis showed that the microgrid would be capable of maintaining electricity supply to critical loads essentially indefinitely in most outage scenarios, while also substantially improving overall reliability for microgrid customers. With targeted improvements in local utility distribution infrastructure, test analysis showed that the microgrid would be capable of reducing annual electricity outages for critical loads by 98%. Further, to help achieve environmental and efficiency policy goals established by both the State of Maryland and the federal government, the team designed the system to reduce the annual carbon footprint of served loads by 20%, and to improve system energy efficiency for those loads by at least 20%. Testing showed that, as designed, the system is capable of meeting these performance requirements, with potential for further improvements through more effective thermal energy utilization. This Final Report, comprised of four volumes and 11 annexes, presents the results of these project efforts, including feasibility assessment (section F) and guidance for decision-makers considering prospective deployment of public-purpose microgrid systems in Maryland communities.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Resilient buildings for fire-adapted landscapes: EE and flexible loads integrated with solar and storage microgrids

Energy efficiency (EE) and flexible loads can be part of a resilient buildings packagewhen they are combined with solar and storage in a clean energy microgrid to reduce the carbonfootprint of buildings and enable resilience to extreme events. Recent large wildfires and an emerging understanding of the fire-adapted landscapes in the American West underscore the urgency of work towards scaling and commercializing these systems. For example, a recent power shutoff in Northern California (October 9-12, 2019) resulted in 738k customers disconnected at the peak of the outage and is emblematic of challenges to come. Our paper reports on insights from a clean energy microgrid deployment pilot that integrates a 50 kWAC PV array, a 109 kW / 174 kWh battery system, switchgear to safely isolate from the regional power system, and communicating controllers for HVAC and refrigeration. The project will be commissioned in May 2020 and is sited at a critical infrastructure site in rural Northern California – in this case a gasoline station with convenience store. Our experience and results shed light on capabilities of integrated microgrids to provide value to customers during blue sky conditions and resilience during black sky days with high fire risk, and what opportunities and barriers exist for scaling these integrated microgrid systems in the near term. We use a simulation model to estimate how EE and flexibility can extend the run time of solar and storage, improving the reliability of power at critical sites.

Alstone, Peter↗

Optimizing DER Deployment for Climate, Health, Resilience, and Energy Bill Benefits Using the REopt Model

Climate change, public health, and resilience to power outages are of critical concern to local governments, federal agencies, and the private sector, and are increasingly motivating investments in distributed energy resources (DERs). However, designing a solar-plus-storage system to co-optimize for climate, health, resilience, and energy bill benefits requires complex trade-offs. To address this need, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory has integrated climate and health impacts of grid-purchased electricity and on-site fuel consumption into the publicly-available REopt web tool and API - a techno-economic model that determines the cost-optimal DER system sizes and dispatch strategy. This presentation will provide an overview of the tool's methodology, datasets, and capabilities, including costing emissions into system sizing and dispatch and setting emissions reductions targets. Results of previous work will demonstrate the use of new emissions accounting capabilities by quantifying the impact of including climate and health costs on the optimal resilient microgrid configurations for a hospital, school, and warehouse across 14 U.S. cities.

climate↗

Resilience Assessment Framework For Electric Distribution Systems Performance Under Extreme Conditions

The devastating impact of extreme weather-related events is increasingly evident on power grids, especially on distribution grids. The severity of their potential impact calls for 1) developing a suitable resilience assessment framework to capture the system performance and 2) assessing relevant mitigative strategies to lessen the impact of such events. This paper proposes a framework to identify grid vulnerabilities using the energy-at-risk concept to select, disconnect and isolate grid portions due to a resilience event. The proposed framework mainly consists of two steps; i) processing the utility's available infrastructure, i.e., a network model, possible switching combinations, and outage information for those combinations, as a graph-based database, and ii) implementing a novel optimal switching algorithm leveraging database and grid simulated metrics. These switching actions are generated to implement load curtailment in a rolling manner during anticipated grid scarcity conditions. In this study, a test case is created using two taxonomy feeders and is simulated against an extreme temperature event, e.g., a long, relatively cold, and prolonged freeze peak, thereby creating stress on the grid. It is demonstrated that the proposed framework allows utilities to predict the energy-at-risk during such resilience events and design suitable outage management strategies.

Poudel, Shiva↗

Resilient Information Architecture Platform for Smart Grid (RIAPS)

A number of emerging trends will substantially alter the operation and control of the electric grid over the next several decades. These trends include ensuring resiliency under severe weather events, increasing integration of renewable electricity generation, supporting changing electricity demand patterns, and the improving cost effectiveness of distributed energy resources. To address these challenges, the future “Smart Grid” management will need to transition from centralized to coordinated distributed control paradigm. Reliable operation of the Smart Grid depends on distributed intelligence realized through software applications that run on distributed computing devices attached to the power system to collect data and collaboratively manage resources. However, much of the existing software for Smart Grid-enabled devices is either proprietary or developed with custom solutions, which limits interoperability among the heterogeneous devices and hinders the ability to manage system-level reliability, security, and resiliency requirements. Additionally, this approach makes Smart Grid applications hard to maintain, evolve, verify, and replace; resulting in high development and deployment costs. Further development of the Smart Grid requires a reusable software base-layer to move from hard-coded functionality to a plug-and-play architecture capable of managing system-level objectives and constraints in addition to providing consistent common services across heterogeneous devices and applications. Vanderbilt University, in collaboration with North Carolina State University and Washington State University has developed a foundation ‘software platform’ for developing and deploying robust, reliable, effective and secure software applications for the Smart Grid. The Resilient Information Architecture Platform for the Smart Grid (RIAPS) provides core services for building effective and powerful smart grid applications. It offers unique services for real-time data dissemination, fault tolerance, and coordination across apps distributed over the network.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Engineering in Cyber Resilience with Cyber-Informed Engineering

Engineers have super powers to provide cybersecurity resilience with deterministic engineering solutions and to protect systems from the most catastrophic consequences that a cyber saboteur could cause. Come to this session to learn how to use engineering risk management skills to harden your engineered systems from cyberattacks. Objective 1 Identify what system functions could be digitally induced to cause undesired high-impact consequences. Objective 2 Analyze how loss or instability of digital controls in a subsystem could lead to high-impact consequences. Objective 3 Analyze how loss or instability in the digital connectivity between systems could lead to high-impact consequences. Objective 4 Identify engineering controls which could build resilience by eliminating digital loss or instability pathways or reduce the impact of digital loss or instability. This presentation will introduce Cyber-Informed Engineering, described below, and walk participants through specific engineering use cases to show how engineers can consider the potential for cyber sabotage in their existing system designs and enact deterministic engineering-based controls which eliminate pathways for attack or mitigate specific consequences. A wide variety of application use cases will be considered so that audience members can align the material with familiar engineering applications. CIE is an engineering approach that integrates cyber resilience into the conception, design, build, and operation of any physical system that has digital connectivity, sensors, monitoring, or control. CIE offers the opportunity to use engineering to eliminate or mitigate avenues for cyber attack—starting from the earliest stage of design and continuing throughout the system’s lifecycle. Today, engineers and industrial control system (ICS) technicians build engineered systems with specific goals for safety, reliability, and functionality. While systems engineering includes considerable safety and failure mode analysis, cybersecurity risks are often not specifically addressed—particularly the risks of intentional cyber compromise, exploitation, and misuse. Cyber-Informed Engineering pairs well with traditional cyber defenses and offers an extra designed-in protection to eliminate the most catastrophic consequences which can be realized by an adversary should traditional cyber defenses fail.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Energy burden aware and thermal resilience informed thermal energy storage system planning for disadvantaged communities

Disadvantaged communities often face a disproportionate energy burden because they need to allocate a higher percentage of their income to energy costs. More importantly, climate change-induced extreme weather events, such as heat waves and severe cold snaps, exacerbate these communities’ energy burdens. As a result, low- and medium-income communities are more likely to experience energy supply disruptions, increased health risks, and elevated energy bills because of inadequate thermal insulation and airtightness in their houses. Thermal energy storage (TES) systems, such as large-scale (community-level) geothermal energy storage and small-scale (building-level) phase change material (PCM)–based storage, have a great potential to improve building energy efficiency and to enhance thermal comfort, load shifting, and integration with renewable energy. The objective of this study is to optimally allocate building level PCM-based TES systems at the community level by considering energy equity and extreme weather effects. To this end, we developed an energy burden and thermal resilience–informed TES system planning framework, which includes three modules: (1) a community-level energy burden and thermal resilience assessment module, (2) building-level a TES system integration and assessment module, and (3) a community-level optimal planning module. Case studies were conducted on four disadvantaged communities in Montgomery and Shelby Counties in Tennessee with energy burdens >10% and with high percentages of people of color. The results indicate that this comprehensive planning framework can assist disadvantaged communities in reducing their energy burden and in bolstering their resilience against the adverse effects of climate change.

Shen, Zhenglai↗

Enhancing Security and Resiliency in Operational Technology Environments Through Network Slicing and Federated Learning

The growing convergence of Information Technology (IT) and Operational Technology (OT) within Industry 4.0 environments has introduced new demands on industrial network infrastructure. As cyber-physical systems become increasingly interconnected, ensuring the secure, timely, and efficient exchange of critical data is essential. This thesis explores how network slicing, a method of creating isolated virtual network segments, can be applied within OT environments to address challenges such as latency, security, and resource allocation. The first research question addressed in this thesis is: How can OT networks take advantage of NFV and SDN technology to become cyber resilient? This study examines the operational, security, and architectural implications of introducing network slicing into traditionally static OT infrastructures such as Industrial Control Systems (ICS) and SCADA. Through simulated deployments and case studies, the research demonstrates how slicing enables better isolation between critical and non-critical services, thereby improving response time, throughput, and security in sensitive environments. The second question considers: How to dynamically implement network slicing and take advantage of network resources towards integrating decentralized machine learning? In response, this thesis proposes a framework that combines Software-Defined Networking (SDN), Network Function Virtualization (NFV), and Federated Learning (FL) to enable real-time analytics while maintaining data locality. The proposed approach reduces the burden on centralized infrastructure and minimizes privacy risks by supporting on-site training of models across distributed OT nodes, coordinated through dynamically allocated network slices. The third focus explores: How slicing helps to increase the resiliency of OT networks through the orchestration of a dynamic DMZ? To answer this, the thesis presents a method for creating and managing Dynamic Demilitarized Zones (DMZs) using network slicing. This enables flexible and automated isolation of sensitive subsystems during threat scenarios or high-risk operations. Coupled with intelligent orchestration and containerized security services, the dynamic DMZ significantly enhances the system's ability to respond to cyber incidents without halting production. Ultimately, this thesis contributes a comprehensive architecture that blends network slicing with machine learning, secure segmentation, and automation, paving the way for resilient, adaptive, and intelligent OT environments. Performance evaluations across multiple scenarios show improvements in system reliability, threat response time, model accuracy, and resource utilization, providing a strong foundation for future industrial automation systems.

Rodiles Delgado, Brian G↗

A Generalized Framework for Service Restoration in a Resilient Power Distribution System

An electric power grid is one of the complex infrastructures, and because of its complex nature, there is simply no way that outages can be completely avoided. Thus, a modern society that depends on reliable electric supply requires a resilient electric system that can recover from disruptions while integrating emerging smart grid technologies. Here, this article presents a novel approach for service restoration in a modern power distribution system with controllable switches and distributed generation (DG) resources for any kind of outage. The proposed framework supports both the traditional service restoration using feeder reconfiguration and the grid-forming DG-assisted intentional islands that are dynamically sized using algorithms based on the fault scenario, available resources, and priority of loads. The problem is formulated as a mixed-integer linear program that incorporates critical system connectivity and operating constraints. Simulations are performed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach using a large-scale four-feeder 1069-bus three-phase unbalanced distribution test system. It is demonstrated that the framework is effective in utilizing all available resources in quickly restoring the power supply to improve resiliency during extreme events and is scalable for a large-scale unbalanced power distribution system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Trade-off Analysis of Operational Technologies to Advance Cyber Resilience through Automated and Autonomous Response to Threats

The advancement of cyber resilience requires a preliminary stage of characterizing the trade-off space of mitigation options and how these might affect the stability and determinism of an operational technology (OT). This first step will set the stage for the proper cyber-secure and cyber-resilient design and confirm the affects that can be considered and approved by the OT and the security groups. To provide a baseline for this discussion, this paper provides a consideration of the cyberphysical interactions, possible mitigation steps against certain attacks and their corresponding affects that lend to the security design planning and evaluation process. As an integral part of the proposed scheme this work introduces the concept of systemwide fuzzer, i.e., a tool that manipulates the system state in an effort to determine mitigation response sequences that minimize detriments and maximize benefit in accordance with specified operational requirements.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Planning a Resilient Power Sector: Ensuring Reliable, Secure, Safe, and Affordable Electricity

Decision makers around the globe are exploring strategies to ensure the reliable, secure, safe, and affordable supply of electricity to power economic growth and achieve development goals. Vulnerabilities of the power sector to natural hazards (e.g., acts of nature, severe weather, and climate variabilities), technological hazards (e.g., accidents and system or structure failures), and threats or human-caused incidents (e.g., intentional cyber-attacks or acts of terror) can impede the provision of the energy services necessary to achieve these goals. Although decision makers cannot prevent an act of nature such as an earthquake, they can anticipate, prepare for, and adapt to potential vulnerabilities through planning. The purpose of power sector resilience planning is to identify vulnerabilities and devise strategies to mitigate them. This document reviews some of the hazards that power sectors face and how decision makers can plan to increase resilience.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Power Sector Resilience Planning: To Ensure Reliable, Secure, Safe and Affordable Electricity Supplies (Lab Translation)

Decision makers around the globe are exploring strategies to ensure the reliable, secure, safe, and affordable supply of electricity to power economic growth and achieve development goals. Vulnerabilities of the power sector to natural hazards (e.g., acts of nature, severe weather, and climate variabilities), technological hazards (e.g., accidents and system or structure failures), and threats or human-caused incidents (e.g., intentional cyber-attacks or acts of terror) can impede the provision of the energy services necessary to achieve these goals. Although decision makers cannot prevent an act of nature such as an earthquake, they can anticipate, prepare for, and adapt to potential vulnerabilities through planning. The purpose of power sector resilience planning is to identify vulnerabilities and devise strategies to mitigate them. This document reviews some of the hazards that power sectors face and how decision makers can plan to increase resilience.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗