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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Unraveling the 2021 Central Tennessee flood event using a hierarchical multi-model inundation modeling framework

Flood prediction systems need hierarchical atmospheric, hydrologic, and hydraulic models to predict rainfall, runoff, streamflow, and floodplain inundation. The accuracy of such systems depends on the error propagation through the modeling chain, sensitivity to input data, and choice of models. In this study, we used multiple precipitation forcings (hindcast and forecast) to drive hydrologic and hydrodynamic models to analyze the impacts of various drivers on the estimates of flood inundation depth and extent. We implement this framework to unravel the August 2021 extreme flooding event that occurred in Central Tennessee, USA. We used two radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (STAGE4 and MRMS) as well as quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) from the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center (WPC) to drive a series of models in the hierarchical framework, including the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model, the Routing Application for Parallel Computation of Discharge (RAPID) river routing model, and the AutoRoute and TRITON inundation models. An evaluation with observed high-water marks demonstrates that the framework can reasonably simulate flood inundation. Despite the complex error propagation mechanism of the modeling chain, we show that inundation estimates are most sensitive to rainfall estimates. Most notably, QPF significantly underestimates flood magnitudes and inundations leading to unanticipated severe flooding for all stakeholders involved in the event. Finally, we discuss the implications of the hydrodynamic modeling framework for real-time flood forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A hydrogeophysical framework to assess infiltration during a simulated ecosystem-scale flooding experiment

This study presents a framework to quantify changes in soil saturation in response to flooding caused by extreme hydrologic perturbation on coastal ecosystems at the interfaces and transition between terrestrial and aquatic systems. Subsurface heterogeneity limits the use of in situ measurements to quantify subsurface flow during flooding due to the spatial discontinuity in the measured data. While geophysical methods, including time-lapse electrical resistivity imaging (ERI), are increasingly used to monitor soil hydrological processes, their abilities to parameterize flow models have been underutilized. This study combines background ERI, ground penetrating radar (GPR), time-lapse ERI, soil characterization, and a numerical flow model developed using an Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) code to quantify the infiltration pathway and describe the hydrological dynamics during a simulated flooding experiment. We assessed the use of two conceptual models developed using [1] ERI and GPR data that described the stratigraphic distribution, and time-lapse ERI that mapped permeability contrast, and [2] information from a national soil database for capturing changes in saturation. Combining the ERI and GPR results with soil core data revealed the stratigraphic heterogeneity at the site with a silty clay layer from 1 to 2 m between an overlying loamy topsoil and an underlying saturated silty sand. This silty clay layer could restrict deep infiltration. The time-lapse ERI showed up to a 35% decrease in resistivity, which correlated with soil moisture data (R 2 value > 0.53) and revealed preferential infiltration zones used to inform the flow model. Numerical simulation results from both the geophysics- and soil database-informed models quantified changes in soil saturation with calculated soil moistures that agreed with field data. The geophysics-informed model captured more of the system’s variability, reflective of shallow subsurface heterogeneities. The framework presented will serve as a precursor for a robust ecohydrological model that can describe the impacts of extreme events induced by climate change on coastal ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Assessing mechanical response of CO 2 storage into a depleted carbonate reef using a site-scale geomechanical model calibrated with field tests and InSAR monitoring data

Geomechanical risks of injection have raised concerns regarding secure CO 2 storage. In this work, a combined monitoring and modeling approach is used to assess the stress changes and surface uplift associated with CO 2 injection into a depleted carbonate reef of the Michigan basin. A site-scale geomechanical model is built by assigning mechanical properties of formations using well-log and experimental data. Gravity load is applied to the model to estimate the vertical component of stress as well as different lateral boundary displacement scenarios to estimate horizontal stresses. We used a poroelastic pressure-dependent model (instead of a linear elastic mechanical earth model) to calibrate initial stresses using hydraulic fracture test data measured at depleted reservoir status. Multi-phase fluid flow-geomechanical simulations are performed to estimate the poroelastic response during (1) primary depletion (2) field-scale CO 2 injection phase (3) a hypothetical forecast scenario in which well bottom hole pressure (BHP) reach 45000 KPa. The predicted surface uplift is less than 1 mm at the end of the field-scale CO 2 injection phase which is in good agreement with Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) uplift measurement. Although the InSAR data shows an insignificant uplift, hydromechanical modeling of injection shows that CO 2 injection still causes reservoir deformation emphasizing the role of carbonate overburden and reservoir formation mechanical properties and limited size of reef on diminishing the surface deformation. Modeling indicates poroelastic response of caprock matters to estimate uplift. The lower permeability of the top two layers provides additional barrier to large uplift. Also, history of subsidence due to production should be accounted to predict uplift due to a follow up injection correctly. This report shows the significance of combining a calibrated geomechanical model with field measured stresses and monitoring data to be used as a tool to ensure the safety of CO 2 storage.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Automating the detection of hydrological barriers and fragmentation in wetlands using deep learning and InSAR

The loss of hydrological connectivity and fragmentation of natural wetlands is a widespread driver of wetland degradation. Understanding where and how natural connectivity is impaired is essential for managing, protecting and remediating these ecosystems. Wetland Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (Wetland InSAR) can provide information on surface flow orientation in wetlands at a high spatial resolution, which can be used for barrier detection. However, the broad application of this approach is constrained by the labour-intensive manual delineation of barriers based on mapped water levels. This study presents the first deep learning-based methodology for the automated detection of hydrological barriers. We trained a deep convolutional network to segment edge features of hydrological barriers in 25 image pairs captured by ALOS PALSAR-1 L-Band InSAR between 2006 and 2011. The training dataset consists of manually labelled and delineated barriers showing abrupt changes in water surface elevation and wrapped interferograms with high coherence. We tested this method across three wetland sites: the Everglades and southern Louisiana wetlands (United States) and the Cienaga de Zapata (Cuba). Across these sites, the convolutional network detected hydrological barriers with up to 84% accuracy. The model performed particularly well for linear hydrological barriers such as roads, dikes, and channels. Notably, some barriers impede flow only seasonally, appearing during low water levels and disappearing when water levels rise. Our automated approach to detecting and assessing wetland hydrologic connectivity can be applied more broadly to support the effective management of fragmented wetland ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mid-century climate change impacts on tornado-producing tropical cyclones

Tornadoes are a co-occurring extreme that can be produced by landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs). These tornadoes can exacerbate the loss of life and property damage caused by the TC from which they were spawned. It is uncertain how the severe weather environments of landfalling TCs may change in a future climate and how this could impact tornado activity from TCs. In this study, we investigated four TCs that made landfall in the U.S. and produced large tornado outbreaks. We performed four-member ensembles of convective-allowing (4-km resolution) regional climate model simulations representing each TC in the historical climate and a mid-twenty-first century future climate. To identify potentially tornadic storms, or TC-tornado (TCT) surrogates, we used thresholds for three-hourly maximum updraft helicity and radar reflectivity, as tornadoes are not resolved in the model. We found that the ensemble-mean number of TCT-surrogates increased substantially (56–299%) in the future, supported by increases in most-unstable convective available potential energy, surface-to-700-hPa bulk wind shear, and 0–1-km storm-relative helicity in the tornado-producing region of the TCs. On the other hand, future changes in most-unstable convective inhibition had minimal influence on future TCT-surrogates. This provides robust evidence that tornado activity from TCs may increase in the future. Furthermore, TCT-surrogate frequency between 00Z and 09Z increased for three of the four cases, suggesting enhanced tornado activity at night, when people are asleep and more likely to miss warnings. All of these factors indicate that TC-tornadoes may become more frequent and a greater hazard in the future, compounding impacts from future increases in TC winds and precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Reflections on the anomalous ANITA events: the Antarctic subsurface as a possible explanation

The Antarctic Impulsive Transient Antenna (ANITA) balloon experiment was designed to detect radio signals initiated by high-energy neutrinos and cosmic ray (CR) air showers. These signals are typically discriminated by the polarization and phase inversions of the radio signal. The reflected signal from CRs suffer phase inversion compared to a direct ‘tau neutrino’ event. In this paper, we study subsurface reflection, which can occur without phase inversion, in the context of the two anomalous up-going events reported by ANITA. It is found that subsurface layers and firn density inversions may plausibly account for the events, while ice fabric layers and wind ablation crusts could also play a role. This hypothesis can be tested with radar surveying of the Antarctic region in the vicinity of the anomalous ANITA events. Future experiments should not use phase inversion as a sole criterion to discriminate between down-going and up-going events, unless the subsurface reflection properties are well understood.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Radio-echo sounding of Crary Ice Rise reveals abundant marine ice in former ice shelf rifts and basal crevasses

Crary Ice Rise formed after the Ross Ice Shelf re-grounded ~1 kyr BP. We present new ice-penetrating radar data from two systems operating at center frequencies of 7 and 750 MHz that confirm the ice rise is composed of a former ice shelf buried by subsequent accumulation. Stacks of englacial diffraction hyperbolas are present almost everywhere across the central ice rise and extend up to ~350 m above the bed. In many cases, bed reflections beneath the diffraction hyperbolas are obscured for distances up to 1 km. Waveform modeling indicates that the diffraction hyperbolas are likely caused by marine ice deposits in former basal crevasses and rifts. The in-filling of rifts and basal crevasses may have strengthened the connection between the ice rise and the surrounding ice shelf, which could have influenced local and regional ice dynamics. Three internal reflection horizons mark the upper limit of disturbed ice and diffraction hyperbolas in different sections of the ice rise, indicating at least three stages of flow stabilization across the ice rise. A surface lineation visible in MODIS imagery corresponds spatially to deepening and strong deformation of these layers, consistent with the characteristics of former grounding lines observed elsewhere in Antarctica.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Time–series Analysis of Volume Change at Brady Hot Springs, Nevada, USA using Geodetic Data from 2003 – 2018

Brady Hot Springs geothermal field has exhibited subsidence, as measured by interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR). Previous studies have examined both the temporal evolution of the deformation from 2004 through 2016 and the spatial extent of the deformation, directly relating the observed subsidence to volumetric changes below the surface. We extend the modeling at Brady to analyze a data set of interferometric pairs spanning from the end of 2003 through 2018. We examine spatial and temporal trends in the observed deformation by time–series analysis of each of the 1656 cubic voxels in a parameterized elastic dislocation model to identify areas where the subsurface volume changes as a function of time. Joint time–series analysis of Global Positioning System and InSAR pairs confirm significant changes in rates of volume change during time intervals when well operations were varied. Here, the rate of subsidence increases with increased injection, consistent with the identification of thermal contraction of the rock matrix as the dominant driving mechanism. Conversely, the modeled volume increases when pumping ceases, suggesting thermal expansion of the rock matrix.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Seasonal and Long‐Term Groundwater Unloading in the Central Valley Modifies Crustal Stress

Abstract Changes in terrestrial water content cause elastic deformation of the Earth's crust. This deformation is thought to play a role in modulating crustal stress and seismicity in regions where large water storage fluctuations occur. Groundwater is an important component of total water storage change in California, helping to drive annual water storage fluctuations and loss during periods of drought. Here we use direct estimates of groundwater volume loss during the 2007–2010 drought in California's Central Valley obtained from high resolution Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar‐based vertical land motion data to investigate the effect of groundwater volume change on the evolution of the stress field. We show that GPS‐derived elastic load models may not capture the contribution of groundwater to terrestrial water loading, resulting in an underestimation of nontectonic crustal stress change. We find that groundwater unloading during the drought causes Coulomb stress change of up to 5.5 kPa and seasonal fluctuations of up to 2.6 kPa at seismogenic depth. We find that faults near the Valley show the largest stress change and the San Andreas fault experiences only ~40 Pa of Coulomb stress change over the course of a year from groundwater storage change. Annual Coulomb stress change peaks dominantly in the fall, when the groundwater level is low; however, some faults experience peak stress in the spring when groundwater levels are higher. Additionally, we find that periods of increased stress correlate with higher than average seismic moment release but are not correlated with an increase in the number of earthquakes. This indicates groundwater loading likely contributes to nontectonic loading of faults, especially near the Valley edge, but is not a dominant factor in modulation of seismicity in California because the amplitude of stress change declines rapidly with distance from the Valley. By carefully quantifying and spatially locating groundwater fluctuations, we will improve our understanding of what drives nontectonic stress and forces that modulate seismicity in California.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Simulating a Mesoscale Convective System Using WRF with a New Spectral Bin Microphysics: Part 1: Hail vs Graupel

A modified Fast Spectral Bin Microphysics scheme (FSBM-2) embedded into the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) is used to simulate a mesoscale deep convective system observed during the Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E). FSBM-2 uses modified source codes as compared to the current FSBM (FSBM-1). In contrast to FSBM-1, FSBM-2 can simulate hail of several cm in diameter and includes additional processes such as spontaneous breakup of raindrops and aerosol regeneration by drop evaporation. It is shown that allowing large hail particles of diameters exceeding about 1 cm substantially increases the agreement between the simulated and observed squall-line structures both in the convective and stratiform regions. In contrast, if graupel particles are used to represent high-density hydrometeors in convective areas, the ratio of convective-to-stratiform areas diverges from the ratio seen in observations and maximum radar reflectivities are substantially underestimated. Analysis of snow size distributions in the stratiform area shows an important link between the ice crystals formed by homogeneous freezing in the convective area to ice particle number concentration in the stratiform region. Simulated raindrop size distributions in the stratiform area below the melting level from FSBM-2 show a good agreement with observations. The regeneration of CCN by droplet evaporation and detrainment of these CCN to the stratiform region increases the concentration of CCN there up to 8-9 km altitude; the additional CCN penetrate clouds and produce new droplets, leading to some convection intensification. Key words: Mesoscale convective systems (MCS), squall lines, spectral bin microphysics, large hail, in-cloud nucleation, size distributions of hydrometeors in MCS.

Shpund, Kobby↗
DOE OSTI2020

Simulations of Winter Arctic Clouds and Associated Radiation Fluxes Using Different Cloud Microphysics Schemes in the Polar WRF: Comparisons With CloudSat, CALIPSO, and CERES

Clouds are important for the Arctic climate, but simulating such clouds with numerical models is still challenging. The accuracy of model clouds has not been sufficiently examined due to the harsh Arctic environment obstructing cloud observations, especially during Arctic winters experiencing polar nights. This study compares the Arctic winter clouds simulated by a weather forecast model to cloud observations from active (lidar and radar) satellite instruments. The model successfully produced cloud patterns similar to the satellite observations. However, the choice of the cloud physics module in the model can modify the amount of cloud water significantly enough to affect the simulated surface climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Drizzle, Turbulence, and Density Currents Below Post Cold Frontal Open Cellular Marine Stratocumulus Clouds

Nine cases of postcold frontal marine stratocumulus clouds exhibiting open cellular mesoscale organization are analyzed to characterize the drizzle, turbulence, and density currents below them. Data collected by the vertically pointing Doppler cloud radar and multiple lidars part of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site are used in these analyses. A total of 251 drizzle shafts passed over the site with 76 shafts sampled for more than 15 min by the vertically pointing instruments. On average the drizzle shafts were ~18 km wide with below-cloud drizzle water path of ~40 g m −2 , cloud base rain rate of 7.78 mm day −1 , and cloud base drizzle modal diameter of 393 μm. The widths of the drizzle shafts did not exhibit any relationship with the cloud base rain rate, below-cloud drizzle water path, and the total water removed from the cloud. The downdrafts in the lowest 500 m within the drizzle cells strengthened with increasing cloud base rain rates, while the updrafts within drizzle cells did not exhibit this behavior. On average, the surface air density, pressure, water vapor mixing ratio, and wind speed along the background wind during the drizzle shaft were higher by 1.88 g m −3 , 8.60 Pa, 0.24 g kg −1 , and 1.22 m s −1 , respectively, from their background values. On the other hand, the surface air temperature was lower by 0.43 K during the drizzle shaft than its background value. The coincident measurements highlight the drizzle-turbulence-surface coupling in these cloud systems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Changes in Physical Properties of Everglades Peat Soils Induced by Increased Salinity at the Laboratory Scale: Implications for Changes in Biogenic Gas Dynamics

Abstract Saltwater intrusion due to sea level rise is a major concern for the Florida Everglades because it may induce shifts in ecosystem productivity and physical soil properties. However, the effects of saline water intrusion into the current carbon gas dynamics of the Everglades (particularly in terms of biogenic gas production and emissions, i.e., CH 4 and CO 2 ) are still uncertain. In this work, we present a laboratory‐based study to simulate how sea level rise may alter the physical properties (i.e., hydraulic conductivity) of peat soils from the Everglades and consequently affect the accumulation and release of biogenic gases within the peat matrix. Peat monoliths collected from the Everglades were subjected to progressive increases in salinity from a NaCl solution, and changes to the biogenic gas dynamics regime were simultaneously monitored using a combination of time‐lapse ground‐penetrating radar measurements, manometers, time‐lapse photography, and gas traps. Physical changes to the peat matrix at each salinity interval were assessed using constant head permeameter tests. Consistent with previous research, results show that a progressive increase in salinity (from fresh to saltwater) results in (1) a progressive increase in hydraulic conductivity and (2) a progressive decrease in gas content within the peat matrix (i.e., production) and gas releases. This work has implications for better understanding the potential effects of saltwater intrusion into freshwater peatland systems in the Everglades, particularly in terms of carbon gas dynamics.

Sirianni, Matthew J.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Structure of an Atmospheric River over Australia and the Southern Ocean. Part I: Tropical and Midlatitude Water Vapor Fluxes

An atmospheric river (AR) impacting Australia-Tasmania and the Southern Ocean during the Austral summer on 28-29 January 2018 during the SOCRATES campaign is analyzed using both a modeling and observational approach. Gulfstream-V dropsonde measurements and GPM radar analyses were used in conjunction with Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations with water vapor tracers to investigate the relative contributions of tropical and mid-latitude moisture sources to the AR. Moisture associated with a monsoonal tropical depression became entrained into a mid-latitude frontal system that extended to 60°S over the Southern Ocean reaching the associated low pressure system 850 km off the east coast of Antarctica – effectively connecting the tropics and the polar region. Tropical moisture contributed to about 50% of the precipitable water within the AR. The tropical contribution to precipitation decreased with latitude, from > 70% over the Australian continent, to ~50% off the Australian coast, to less than 10% poleward of 60°S. Precipitation in the AR conformed to a seeder-feeder model, the seeder precipitation forming primarily from tropical sourced moisture above the altitude of the 0°C isotherm, and the feeder precipitation sourced from mid-latitude sourced moisture below the altitude of the 0°C isotherm. The integrated vapor transport (IVT) through the core of the AR reached above 500 kg m-1s-1 during 1200 UTC 28 January to 0600 UTC 29 January 29, 1.29 times the average amount of water carried by the world’s largest river, the Amazon. The high IVT strength might be attributed to the higher water vapor content associated with the warmer temperatures in Austral summer.

Rauber, Robert M.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Southern Ocean Cloud Properties Derived From CAPRICORN and MARCUS Data

The properties of Southern Ocean (SO) liquid phase non precipitating clouds (hereafter clouds) are examined using shipborne data collected during the Measurements of Aerosols, Radiation and Clouds over the Southern Ocean and the Clouds Aerosols Precipitation Radiation and atmospheric Composition Over the SoutheRN ocean I and II campaigns that took place south of Australia during Autumn 2016 and Summer 2017–2018. Cloud properties are derived using data from W-band radars, lidars, and microwave radiometers using an optimal estimation algorithm. The SO clouds tended to have larger liquid water paths (LWP, 115 ± 117 g m -2 ), smaller effective radii (re, 8.7 ± 3 μm), and higher number concentrations (N d , 90 ± 107 cm-3) than typical values of eastern ocean basin stratocumulus. The clouds demonstrated a tendency for the LWP to increase with Nd presumably due to precipitation suppression up to Nd of approximately 100 cm -3 when mean LWP decreased with increasing Nd. Due to higher optical depth, cloud albedos were less susceptible to changes in Nd compared to subtropical stratocumulus. The highest latitude clouds of the datasets, observed along and near the Antarctic coast, presented a distinctly bimodal character. One mode had the properties of marine clouds further north. Additionally, the other mode occurred in an aerosol environment characterized by high cloud condensation nuclei concentrations and elevated sulfate aerosol without obvious continental aerosol markers. These regions of higher cloud condensation nuclei tended to have higher Nd, smaller re and higher LWP suggesting sensitivity of cloud properties to seasonal biogenic aerosol production in the high latitude SO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparing Satellite- and Ground-Based Observations of Cloud Occurrence Over High Southern Latitudes

The 2B-CLDCLASS-LIDAR R05 (2BCL5) and the raDAR/liDAR (DARDAR) satellite retrievals of cloud occurrence are compared as a function of altitude and latitude. The largest disparities are observed at low altitudes over high southern latitudes. These data sets are cross referenced to ground-based measurements from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE) campaign at McMurdo Station, Antarctica. Compared with AWARE observations, both 2BCL5 and DARDAR underestimate cloud occurrence below 1.5 km, with 2BCL5 and DARDAR distinguishing roughly one third of cloud occurrences observed by AWARE at 0.5 km. While DARDAR identifies greater cloud occurrences than 2BCL5 below 1.5 km, cloud occurrence values for the two data sets have similar differences relative to ground-based measurements. Therefore, the DARDAR retrievals of greater cloud occurrence at low altitudes are likely due to a larger quantity of false positives associated with radar ground clutter or attenuated lidar retrievals. DARDAR cloud occurrences match better with AWARE than 2BCL5 above 5 km. However, the likely underestimation of ground-based measurements at higher altitudes suggests DARDAR may underestimate high level cloud occurrence. Finally, both data sets indicate the presence of liquid containing clouds at temperatures within the homogeneous freezing regime, despite the fact that the ECMWF-AUX data set implemented in their processing clearly indicates temperatures below -38°C. Finally, using AWARE radiosonde (ECMWF-AUX) temperature data, we find that 2BCL5 detects 13.3% (13.8%) of mixed phase clouds below -38°C, while DARDAR detects 5.7% (6.6%) of mixed phase and 1.1% (1.3%) of liquid phase clouds below -38°C.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Global High‐Resolution Mesoscale Convective System Database Using Satellite‐Derived Cloud Tops, Surface Precipitation, and Tracking

Abstract A new methodology is developed to construct a global (60°S–60°N) long‐term (2000–2019) high‐resolution (∼10‐km h) mesoscale convective system (MCS) database by tracking MCS jointly using geostationary satellite infrared brightness temperature ( T b ) and precipitation feature (PF) characteristics from the Integrated Multi‐satellitE Retrievals for GPM precipitation data sets. Independent validation shows that the satellite‐based MCS data set is able to reproduce important MCS statistics derived from ground‐based radar network observations in the United States and China. We show that by carefully considering key PF characteristics in addition to T b signatures, the new method significantly improves upon previous T b ‐only methods in detecting MCSs in the midlatitudes for all seasons. Results show that MCSs account for over 50% of annual total rainfall across most of the tropical belt and in selected regions of the midlatitudes, with a strong seasonality over many regions of the globe. The tracking database allows Lagrangian aspects such as MCS lifetime and translational speed and direction to be analyzed. The longest‐lived MCSs preferentially occur over the subtropical oceans. The land MCSs have higher cloud‐tops associated with more intense convection, and oceanic MCSs have much higher rainfall production. While MCSs are observed in many regions of the globe, there are fundamental differences in their dynamic and thermodynamic structures that warrant a better understanding of processes that control their evolution. This global database provides significant opportunities for observational and modeling studies of MCSs, their characteristics, and roles in regional and global water and energy cycles, as well as their hydrologic and other impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Simulation of Continental Shallow Cumulus Populations Using an Observation-Constrained Cloud-System Resolving Model

Continental shallow cumulus (ShCu) clouds observed on 30 August 2016 during the Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols, and Land-Ecosystems (HI-SCALE) field campaign are simulated by using an observation-constrained cloud-system resolving model. On this day, ShCu forms over Oklahoma and southern Kansas and some of these clouds transition to deeper, precipitating convection during the afternoon. We apply a four-dimensional ensemble-variational (4DEnVar) hybrid technique in the Community Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system to assimilate operational data sets and unique boundary layer measurements including a Raman lidar, radar wind profilers, radiosondes, and surface stations collected by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) atmospheric observatory into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to ascertain how improved environmental conditions can influence forecasts of ShCu populations and the transition to deeper convection. Independent observations from aircraft, satellite, as well as ARM's remote sensors are used to evaluate model performance in different aspects. Several model experiments are conducted to identify the impact of data assimilation (DA) on the prediction of clouds evolution. The analyses indicate that ShCu populations are more accurately reproduced after DA in terms of cloud initiation time and cloud base height, which can be attributed to an improved representation of the ambient meteorological conditions and the convective boundary layer. Extending the assimilation to 18 UTC (local noon) also improved the simulation of shallow-to-deep transitions of convective clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗