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At least 685 records · Page 38

Resource Adequacy in Electricity Markets With Renewable Energy

This paper presents a market-based resource adequacy assessment framework to analyze the system generation portfolio that results in a competitive market environment. In particular, we apply the modeling framework to investigate the impact of high penetration levels of variable renewable energy resources and different market designs on achieving resource adequacy. The model captures the strategic capacity investment and retirement decision-making of profit-maximizing generation companies. In contrast to many previous studies, this paper considers markets for capacity, energy, and reserve products in detail; thus, the modeling framework allows improved analysis of generation expansion and revenue sufficiency in a competitive market environment. The modeling framework is based on Stackelberg leader-follower games and is formulated as a bi-level optimization problem, which is then transformed into a mathematical program with equilibrium constraints. Furthermore, we employ a Lagrangian decomposition algorithm to enhance computational performance. In a case study of the electric reliability council of texas (ERCOT) system, we compare the results from the proposed model with those obtained from a traditional centralized least-cost planning model. Finally, the results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed modeling framework and highlight the importance of considering strategic behavior in a competitive market framework when assessing resource adequacy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Assessment of U.S. Energy Wave Resources: Cooperative Research and Development

In terms of extractable wave energy resource for our preliminary assessment, the EPRI/National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) assumed that 15% of the available resource could be extracted based on societal constraints of a 30% coverage of the coastline with a 50% efficient wave energy absorbing device. EPRI recognizes that much work needs to be done to better define the extractable resourceand we have outlined a comprehensive approach to doing this in our proposed scope of work, along with specific steps for refining our estimate of the available wave energy resources.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Global wave energy resource classification system for regional energy planning and project development

Efforts to streamline and codify wave energy resource characterization and assessment for regional energy planning and wave energy converter (WEC) project development have motivated the recent development of resource classification systems. Given the unique interplay between WEC absorption and resource attributes, viz, available wave power frequency, directionality, and seasonality, various consensus resource classification metrics have been introduced. However, the main international standards body for the wave energy industry has not reached consensus on a wave energy resource classification system designed with clear goals to facilitate resource assessment, regional energy planning, project site selection, project feasibility studies, and selection of WEC concepts or archetypes that are most suitable for a given wave energy climate. In this work, a primary consideration of wave energy generation is the available energy that can be captured by WECs with different resonant frequency and directional bandwidths. Therefore, the proposed classification system considers combinations of three different wave power classifications: the total wave power, the frequency-constrained wave power, and the frequency-directionally constrained wave power. The dominant wave period bands containing the most wave power are sub-classification parameters that provide useful information for designing frequency and directionally constrained WECs. The bulk of the global wave energy resource is divided into just 22 resource classes representing distinct wave energy climates that could serve as a common language and reference framework for wave energy resource assessment if codified within international standards.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Assessment of high enthalpy geothermal resources and promising areas of Chile

This work aims to assess geothermal power potential in identified high enthalpy geothermal areas in the Chilean Andes, based on reservoir temperature and volume. In addition, we present a set of highly favorable geothermal areas, but without enough data in order to quantify the resource. Information regarding geothermal systems was gathered and ranked to assess Indicated or Inferred resources, depending on the degree of confidence that a resource may exist as indicated by the geoscientific information available to review. Resources were estimated through the USGS Heat in Place method. A Monte Carlo approach is used to quantify variability in boundary conditions. Estimates of total Indicated resource are confined to 3 geothermal systems; Apacheta, El Tatio and Tolhuaca, yielding a total value of 228 ± 154. MWe. The estimates of the total Inferred resources for Chile include 6 geothermal systems and yield a total value of 431 ± 321. MWe. Standard deviation reflects the high variability of reservoir specific parameters for each system. A set of 65 favorable geothermal areas are proposed as the most likely future development targets. Finally, eight of them have initial exploration results that suggest they are highly favorable targets as potential geothermal resources.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

An Indicator-based Approach to Sustainable Management of Natural Resources (Chapter 12)

Assessing the sustainability of natural resource management choices for agricultural and forest lands requires quantification of potential changes to a set of environmental and socioeconomic indicators selected to characterize reference scenarios relative to projected future scenarios. Correctly framing the questions with local stakeholders is a critical first step in the sustainability assessment, and the questions that can be addressed are often limited by data availability. Selecting and prioritizing indicators with stakeholders to address their needs and concerns improves the likelihood of investment in monitoring and evaluation of those indicators over time. Computational techniques for analyzing interactions between the selected indicators are inherently affected by the scales and formats of the assembled indicator datasets. Data analytics have the potential to improve understanding of the potential synergies and tradeoffs involved with meeting multiple environmental and socioeconomic goals simultaneously, but timely and appropriate indicator datasets are not always available—even in this new era of “big data.” Continued improvements in data science and data analytics are needed to broaden understanding and acceptance of problems and to provide valuable information for natural resource management. Advances in these areas will enable society to design future landscapes that meet multiple objectives, including the provisioning of agricultural and forest resources along with a variety of ecosystem services (e.g., clean water and healthy soils).

Parish, Esther↗

A Multi-scale, Geo-data Science Method for Assessing Unconventional Critical Mineral Resources

Critical minerals (CM) supply raw materials that constitute many of our essential infrastructure, defense, technology, and electrification needs. Currently, production and refinement of these materials from conventional sources is limited to few regions globally, which makes supply of these resources particularly venerable to disruption. To help overcome these risks and meet growing demand, attention has focused on identifying and developing resource potential of unconventional geologic CM sources, such as rare-earth elements in sedimentary systems. However, the unconventional nature of these types of sources means they are often poorly characterized and/or under-explored with respect to conventional counterparts. We present a regional case study for an Unconventional Rare-earth and Critical minerals (URC) assessment method for predicting and identifying REE resource potential and occurrence in unconventional systems in the Central Appalachian Basin (CAB). The method utilizes a geologic and geospatial data-driven approach, informed and guided by knowledge of REE enrichment processes, to systematically predict and identify areas of higher enrichment. Results from the test case indicate locations with potential for different types of coal-REE deposits, demonstrating its utility for reducing the area of exploration and identifying sites for more detailed investigation. Building upon the regional scale assessment capability, ongoing science-based enhancements to the method will allow for finer-scale (e.g., mine-scale) predictions required to support technical and economic assessments.

Creason, Christopher↗

Renewable Energy Assessment for the Bureau of Reclamation

Report summarizes the results of an assessment and analysis of renewable energy opportunities conducted for the U.S. Department of Interior, Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Report contains results from utility scale analysis and site visits, as well as facility scale screening and site visits.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Geospatial Analysis and Remote Sensing from Airplanes and Satellites for Cultural Resources Management

Cultural resource management consists of research to identify, evaluate, document and assess cultural resources, planning to assist in decision-making, and stewardship to implement the preservation, protection and interpretation of these decisions and plans. One technique that may be useful in cultural resource management archaeology is remote sensing. It is the acquisition of data and derivative information about objects or materials (targets) located on the Earth's surface or in its atmosphere by using sensor mounted on platforms located at a distance from the targets to make measurements on interactions between the targets and electromagnetic radiation. Included in this definition are systems that acquire imagery by photographic methods and digital multispectral sensors. Data collected by digital multispectral sensors on aircraft and satellite platforms play a prominent role in many earth science applications, including land cover mapping, geology, soil science, agriculture, forestry, water resource management, urban and regional planning, and environmental assessments. Inherent in the analysis of remotely sensed data is the use of computer-based image processing techniques. Geographical information systems (GIS), designed for collecting, managing, and analyzing spatial information, are also useful in the analysis of remotely sensed data. A GIS can be used to integrate diverse types of spatially referenced digital data, including remotely sensed and map data. In archaeology, these tools have been used in various ways to aid in cultural resource projects. For example, they have been used to predict the presence of archaeological resources using modern environmental indicators. Remote sensing techniques have also been used to directly detect the presence of unknown sites based on the impact of past occupation on the Earth's surface. Additionally, remote sensing has been used as a mapping tool aimed at delineating the boundaries of a site or mapping previously unknown features. All of these applications are pertinent to the goals of site discovery and assessment in cultural resource management.

Giardino, Marco J.↗

What are the effects of Agro-Ecological Zones and land use region boundaries on land resource projection using the Global Change Assessment Model?

Understanding the potential impacts of climate change is complicated by mismatched spatial representations between gridded Earth System Models (ESMs) and Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), whose regions are typically larger and defined by geopolitical and biophysical criteria. In this study we address uncertainty stemming from the construction of land use regions in an IAM, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), whose regions are currently based on historical climatic conditions (1961-1990). We re-define GCAM’s regions according to projected climatic conditions (2070-2099), and investigate how this changes model outcomes for land use, agriculture, and forestry. By 2100, we find potentially large differences in projected global and regional area of biomass energy crops, fodder crops, harvested forest, and intensive pasture. These land area differences correspond with changes in agricultural commodity prices and production. These results have broader implications for understanding policy scenarios and potential impacts, and for evaluating and comparing IAM and ESM simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Resource and Load Compatibility Assessment of Wind Energy Offshore of Humboldt County, California

Floating offshore wind is being considered in northern California as indicated by the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management’s issuance of a lease consideration in the Humboldt Call Area. Humboldt County offers access to this enormous resource, but local electric load and transmission are limited. The potential impacts of offshore wind generators at three different scales were studied using a regional grid model of Humboldt County. Offshore wind generation was calculated using modeled wind speed data and 12-MW turbine specifications and integrated with projected load and historical generation. Offshore wind farms deployed in the Humboldt Call Area achieve annual capacity factors between 45% and 54% after losses and maintenance. Power output is variable between and within seasons, with full power output 30% of the time and no output approximately 20% of the time. Electricity from a 48-MW wind farm provides 22% of regional load with limited exports. A 144-MW wind farm serves 38% of local load, exporting 40% of its electricity with the extant 70-MW transmission capacity. A full build-out of 1836 MW would result in 88% curtailment with existing transmission. Across scenarios, offshore wind variability necessitates reliance on existing power plants to meet local demand in periods of low wind.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A Framework for Quantitative Assessment of Impacts Related to Energy and Mineral Resource Development

Natural resource planning at all scales demands methods for assessing the impacts of resource development and use, and in particular it requires standardized methods that yield robust and unbiased results. Building from existing probabilistic methods for assessing the volumes of energy and mineral resources, we provide an algorithm for consistent, reproducible, quantitative assessment of resource development impacts. The approach combines probabilistic input data with Monte Carlo statistical methods to determine probabilistic outputs that convey the uncertainties inherent in the data. For example, one can utilize our algorithm to combine data from a natural gas resource assessment with maps of sage grouse leks and pinon-juniper woodlands in the same area to estimate possible future habitat impacts due to possible future gas development. As another example: one could combine geochemical data and maps of lynx habitat with data from a mineral deposit assessment in the same area to determine possible future mining impacts on water resources and lynx habitat. The approach can be applied to a broad range of positive and negative resource development impacts, such as water quantity or quality, economic benefits, or air quality, limited only by the availability of necessary input data and quantified relationships among geologic resources, development alternatives, and impacts. In conclusion, the framework enables quantitative evaluation of the trade-offs inherent in resource management decision-making, including cumulative impacts, to address societal concerns and policy aspects of resource development.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

reV (The Renewable Energy Potential Model - Open Source) [SWR-21-59, SWR-20-20 and SWR-17-34]

The Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model is a platform for the detailed assessment of renewable energy resources and their geospatial intersection with grid infrastructure and land use characteristics. The reV model currently supports photovoltaic (PV), concentrating solar power (CSP), and land-based wind turbine technologies. Modules in the reV framework function at different spatial and temporal resolutions, allowing for the assessment of resource potential, technical potential, and supply curves at varying levels of detail. The platform runs on the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) high-performance computing system, providing scalable and efficient performance from a single location up to a continent, for a single year or decades of time-series resource data. Coupled with NREL’s System Advisor Model (SAM), reV supports resource assessments from 5-minute to hourly temporal resolutions and supports the analysis of long-term (i.e., year-on-year) variability of renewable generation (e.g., interannual variability and exceedance probabilities).

Maclaurin, Galen↗

NGDS Final Report

The ultimate goal of the National Geothermal Data System (NGDS) is to support the discovery and generation of geothermal sources of energy. The NGDS was designed and has been implemented to provide online access to important geothermal-related data from a network of data providers in order to: • Increase the efficiency of exploration, development and usage of geothermal energy by providing a basis for financial risk analysis of potential sites • Assist state and federal agencies in making land and resource management assessments • Foster the discovery of new geothermal resources by supporting ongoing and future geothermal-related research • Increase public awareness of geothermal energy It is through the implementation of this distributed data system and its subsequent use that substantial increases to the general access and understanding of geothermal related data will result. NGDS provides a mechanism for the sharing of data thereby fostering the discovery of new resources and supporting ongoing geothermal research.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Cornerstone Resources Feedstock Characterization and Conversion Assessment of Treated MSW Materials (CRADA Closeout Final Report)

Cornerstone Resources has developed a proprietary advanced preprocessing technology, the BurCell® System, for production of a high quality organic biomass feedstock from numerous waste resources. While suitable for a variety of feedstock, the focus of development for the BurCell® System has been thus far municipal solid waste (MSW). In MSW, the system technology is able to capture non-recyclable waste paper, cardboard, and organic materials, homogenize these materials and allow for separation of the non-organic fraction. The resulting homogenized organic material typically represents in excess of 50% of the raw MSW feed. The recently released Billion Ton Study now includes MSW as a feedstock resource showing it to be one of the lowest cost and most widely distributed biomass resources available; however, acknowledging the concerns with the potential physical and chemical variability of an MSW based feedstock stream. The focus on MSW has also been driven by MSW being a resource with a clear, well understood and mature supply-chain. Treating MSW in the BurCell® System will make that source of biomass substantially more accessible. To further promote the use of this MSW derived biomass and beneficially exploit the use of the BurCell® System for processing of biomass for Bioenergy production facilities, more detailed lab data is now required.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Kickstarting a New Era of Lunar Industrialization via Campaign of Lunar COTS Missions

To support the goals of expanding our human presence and current economic sphere beyond LEO, a new plan was constructed for NASA to enter into partnerships with industry to foster and incentivize a new era of lunar industrialization. For NASA to finally be successful in achieving sustainable human exploration missions beyond LEO, lessons learned from our space history have shown that it is essential for current program planning to include affordable and economic development goals as well as address top national priorities to obtain much needed public support. In the last 58 years of NASA's existence, only Apollo's human exploration missions beyond LEO were successful since it was proclaimed to be a top national priority during the 1960's. However, the missions were not sustainable and ended abruptly in 1972 due to lack of funding and insufficient economic gain. Ever since Apollo, there have not been any human missions beyond LEO because none of the proposed program plans were economical or proclaimed a top national priority. The proposed plan outlines a new campaign of low-cost, commercial-enabled lunar COTS (Commercial Orbital Transfer Services) missions which is an update to the Lunar COTS plan previously described. The objectives of this new campaign of missions are to prospect for resources, determine the economic viability of extracting those resources and assess the value proposition of using these resources in future exploration architectures such as Mars. These missions would be accomplished in partnership with commercial industry using the wellproven COTS Program acquisition model. This model proved to be very beneficial to both NASA and its industry partners as NASA saved significantly in development and operational costs, as much as tenfold, while industry partners successfully expanded their market share and demonstrated substantial economic gain. Similar to COTS, the goals for this new initiative are 1) to develop and demonstrate cost-effective, cis-lunar commercial services, such as lunar transportation, lunar mining and lunar ISRU operations; 2) enable development of an affordable and economical exploration architecture for future missions to Mars and beyond; and 3) to incentivize the creation of new lunar markets through use of lunar resources for economic benefit to NASA, commercial industry and the international community. These cost-effective services would not only enable NASA to economically and sustainably achieve its human exploration missions to the Moon, Mars and beyond but it would also kickstart a new era of lunar industrialization. This paper will describe the goals, objectives and approach for implementing this new campaign of missions. It will also describe the potential benefits and progress that can be accomplished with these low-cost, Lunar COTS missions. Lastly, a preliminary economic analysis approach is proposed for understanding the cost and potential return on investment in the use of lunar resources to reach the goal of lunar industrialization and an expanded and sustainable human presence into cis-lunar space and beyond.

Lunar Exploration↗

Lunar COTS: Using the Moon's Resources to Enable An Economical and Sustainable Pathway to Mars and Beyond

To support NASAs goal of sending humans to Mars, a new plan was constructed to develop and demonstrate cislunar capabilities and services in partnership with commercial industry using the well-proven Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) Program acquisition model. The NASA COTS Program was a very successful program that developed and demonstrated cost-effective commercial cargo transportation services to the International Space Station (ISS). As a result of NASAs COTS program, two new launch vehicles and spacecraft were developed and have been successfully performing cargo transportation missions to the ISS since 2012. The COTS acquisition strategy utilized a new model than normally accepted in traditional procurement practices. This new model used Space Act Agreements where NASA entered into partnerships with industry to jointly share cost, development and operational risks to demonstrate new capabilities for mutual benefit. This model proved to be very beneficial to both NASA and its industry partners as NASA saved significantly in development and operational costs, as much as tenfold, while industry partners successfully expanded their market share of the global launch transportation business for significant economic benefit. Using the COTS acquisition model as a basis, a new plan, notionally referred to as Lunar Commercial Orbital Transfer Services (or Lunar COTS), has been developed to determine the potential benefits and challenges of a new Lunar COTS plan[1]. The proposed plan includes low-cost, commercial-enabled missions to prospect for resources, determine the economic viability of extracting those resources and assess the value proposition of using these resources in future exploration architectures such as Mars. These missions would be accomplished in partnership with industry to meet these exploration goals but will also have the capability to carry payloads to meet science goals as well.

Zuniga, Allison↗