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DOE OSTI2018

Exact Bayesian computation using H-functions

In the Bayesian Statistics, the use of conjugate prior distributions allows to obtain exact posterior quantities, avoiding the use of approximate methods. However, there are only a few conjugate structures available, which limits the use in practical problems. In this work we propose a general procedure to obtain the posterior distribution in an exact form in non-conjugate location parameter models with known (possibly, heteroskedastic) variance. The theory is based on special functions, specifically the H-function, which embraces most of the probability distributions. We express explicitly in a computable form all the Bayesian tools for posterior inferences, that is the posterior and the posterior predictive distributions and their moments, as well as the cumulative posterior distribution. As an illustration we consider a problem in astronomy of estimating the distance to the Large Magellanic Cloud, the largest galaxy now orbiting the Milky Way Galaxy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Nitrate vulnerability projections from Bayesian inference of multiple groundwater age tracers

Nitrate is a major source of contamination of groundwater in the United States and around the world. We tested the applicability of multiple groundwater age tracers ( 3 H, 3 He, 4 He, 14 C, 13 C, and 85 Kr) in projecting future trends of nitrate concentration in 9 long-screened, public drinking water wells in Turlock, California, where nitrate concentrations are increasing toward the regulatory limit. Very low 85 Kr concentrations and apparent 3 H/ 3 He ages point to a relatively old modern fraction (40–50 years), diluted with pre-modern groundwater, corroborated by the onset and slope of increasing nitrate concentrations. An inverse Gaussian–Dirac model was chosen to represent the age distribution of the sampled groundwater at each well. Model parameters were estimated using a Bayesian inference, resulting in the posterior probability distribution – including the associated uncertainty – of the parameters and projected nitrate concentrations. Three scenarios were considered, including combined historic nitrate and age tracer data, the sole use of nitrate and the sole use of age tracer data. Each scenario was evaluated based on the ability of the model to reproduce the data and the level of reliability of the nitrate projections. The tracer-only scenario closely reproduced tracer concentrations, but not observed trends in the nitrate concentration. Both cases that included nitrate data resulted in good agreement with historical nitrate trends. Use of combined tracers and nitrate data resulted in a narrower range of projections of future nitrate levels. However, use of combined tracer and nitrate resulted in a larger discrepancy between modeled and measured tracers for some of the tracers. In conclusion, despite nitrate trend slopes between 0.56 and 1.73 mg/L/year in 7 of the 9 wells, the probability that concentrations will increase to levels above the MCL by 2040 are over 95% for only two of the wells, and below 15% in the other wells, due to a leveling off of reconstructed historical nitrate loadings to groundwater since about 1990.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quancorde: Boosting fidelity with Quantum Canary Ordered Diverse Ensembles

On today's noisy imperfect quantum devices, execution fidelity tends to collapse dramatically for most applications beyond a handful of qubits. It is therefore imperative to employ novel techniques that can boost quantum fidelity in new ways. Here, this paper aims to boost quantum fidelity with Clifford canary circuits by proposing Quancorde: Quantum Canary Ordered Diverse Ensembles, a fundamentally newapproach to identifying the correct outcomes of extremely low-fidelity quantum applications. It is based on the key idea of diversity in quantum devices - variations in noise sources, make each (portion of a) device unique, and therefore, their impact on an application's fidelity, also unique. Quancorde utilizes Clifford canary circuits (which are classically simulable, but also resemble the target application structure and thus suffer similar structural noise impact) to order a diverse ensemble of devices or qubits/mappings approximately along the direction of increasing fidelity of the target application. Quancorde then estimates the correlation of the ensemble-wide probabilities of each output string of the application, with the canary ensemble ordering, and uses this correlation to weight the application's noisy probability distribution. The correct application outcomes are expected to have higher correlation with the canary ensemble order, and thus their probabilities are boosted in this process. Doing so, Quancorde improves the fidelity of evaluated quantum applications by a mean of 8.9x/4.2x (wrt. different baselines) and up to a maximum of 34x.

clifford↗

DOE OSTI2016

Propagating Mixed Uncertainties in Cyber Attacker Payoffs: Exploration of Two-Phase Monte Carlo Sampling and Probability Bounds Analysis

Securing cyber-systems on a continual basis against a multitude of adverse events is a challenging undertaking. Game-theoretic approaches, that model actions of strategic decision-makers, are increasingly being applied to address cybersecurity resource allocation challenges. Such game-based models account for multiple player actions and represent cyber attacker payoffs mostly as point utility estimates. Since a cyber-attacker’s payoff generation mechanism is largely unknown, appropriate representation and propagation of uncertainty is a critical task. In this paper we expand on prior work and focus on operationalizing the probabilistic uncertainty quantification framework, for a notional cyber system, through: 1) representation of uncertain attacker and system-related modeling variables as probability distributions and mathematical intervals, and 2) exploration of uncertainty propagation techniques including two-phase Monte Carlo sampling and probability bounds analysis.

cyber security↗

NASA NTRS1989

System-Reliability Cumulative-Binomial Program

Cumulative-binomial computer program, NEWTONP, one of set of three programs, calculates cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. NEWTONP, CUMBIN (NPO-17555), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), used independently of one another. Program finds probability required to yield given system reliability. Used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. Program written in C.

Scheuer, Ernest M.↗

NASA NTRS1993

OB associations and giant molecular clouds in the galaxy

Giant molecular clouds (GMC's) are the sites of all OB star formation in the Galaxy. These OB stars typically form in large associations and photoionize the surrounding gas, eventually destroying the clouds from which they were born. CO surveys have revealed the distribution of GMC's in the Galaxy, and radio observations provide data on the distribution of associations. These results are extrapolated to determine Galactic mean distribution functions of each and then combined to determine how GMC's and OB associations are correlated. The resulting probability distribution of luminosity given cloud mass implies that although most of the molecular mass of the Galaxy is in massive star forming complexes, a large number of clouds above which massive star formation is extremely likely and abundant and below which it is almost certainly absent.

Williams, Jonathan↗

NASA NTRS2003

MODIS Cloud Products Derived from Terra and Aqua During CRYSTAL-FACE

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), developed as part of the Earth Observing System (EOS) and launched on Terra in December 1999 and Aqua in May 2002, is designed to meet the scientific needs for satellite remote sensing of clouds, aerosols, water vapor, and land and ocean surface properties. During the CRYSTAL-FACE experiment, numerous aircraft coordinated both in situ and remote sensing observations with the Terra and Aqua spacecraft. In this paper we will emphasize the optical, microphysical, and physical properties of both liquid water and ice clouds obtained from an analysis of the satellite observations over Florida and the Gulf of Mexico during July 2002. We will present the frequency distribution of liquid water and ice cloud microphysical properties throughout the region, separating the results over land and ocean. Probability distributions of effective radius and cloud optical thickness will also be shown.

King, Michael D.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Optimal PV Inverter Control in Distribution Systems via Data-Driven Distributionally Robust Optimization

Distribution systems with high penetration of uncertain solar generation call for advanced control strategies of photovoltaics (PVs) inverters. This paper proposes a data-driven distributionally robust optimization (DDDRO) approach to optimally controlling the PV inverters to improve the system operation performance under solar power uncertainties. In the proposed DDDRO approach, a Wasserstein ball-based method is proposed to construct the distributional ambiguity set to model the uncertainties of PV generation through partial observations of historical data without knowing exact probability distributions. We further reformulate the computationally intractable DDDRO model to a mixed integer second order cone programming (MISOCP) problem. The effectiveness and out-of-sample performance of the proposed approach have been demonstrated on a modified IEEE 33-node system. We conduct a comparative study to compare the proposed method with traditional chance constrained programming (CCP). It shows that the proposed DDDRO approach can provide a less conservative yet robust solution to minimize the worse-case expectation of the total network loss while maintaining nodal voltages in a secure range.

Xue, Yaosuo↗

DOE OSTI2015

Resolve survey photometry and volume-limited calibration of the photometric gas fractions technique

We present custom-processed ultraviolet, optical, and near-infrared photometry for the REsolved Spectroscopy of a Local VolumE (RESOLVE) survey, a volume-limited census of stellar, gas, and dynamical mass within two subvolumes of the nearby universe (RESOLVE-A and RESOLVE-B). RESOLVE is complete down to baryonic mass ∼10{sup 9.1−9.3} M{sub ⊙}, probing the upper end of the dwarf galaxy regime. In contrast to standard pipeline photometry (e.g., SDSS), our photometry uses optimal background subtraction, avoids suppressing color gradients, and employs multiple flux extrapolation routines to estimate systematic errors. With these improvements, we measure brighter magnitudes, larger radii, bluer colors, and a real increase in scatter around the red sequence. Combining stellar mass estimates based on our optimized photometry with the nearly complete H i mass census for RESOLVE-A, we create new z = 0 volume-limited calibrations of the photometric gas fractions (PGF) technique, which predicts gas-to-stellar mass ratios (G/S) from galaxy colors and optional additional parameters. We analyze G/S-color residuals versus potential third parameters, finding that axial ratio is the best independent and physically meaningful third parameter. We define a “modified color” from planar fits to G/S as a function of both color and axial ratio. In the complete galaxy population, upper limits on G/S bias linear and planar fits. We therefore model the entire PGF probability density field, enabling iterative statistical modeling of upper limits and prediction of full G/S probability distributions for individual galaxies. These distributions have two-component structure in the red color regime. Finally, we use the RESOLVE-B 21 cm census to test several PGF calibrations, finding that most systematically under- or overestimate gas masses, but the full probability density method performs well.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2003

Upward Flammability Testing: A Probabilistic Measurement

Examination of NASA-STD-6001 Test 1 data suggests burn length outcome for a given environment has a large statistical variation from run to run. Large data sets show that burn length data form cumulative probability distribution curves, which describe a material's characteristic to burn in a specific environment, suggesting that the current practice of testing three samples at specific conditions is inadequate. Sufficient testing can establish material characteristics probability curves to provide the probability that a material will sustain a burn length of at least 15.24 cm (6.0 in.) or will sustain burning until all material is consumed. A simple pasdfail criterion may not be possible or practical. Future application of flammability data for some material classes may require the engineer to assess risk based on the probability of an occurrence and the probable outcome with different materials as characterized with cumulative burn length distributions for specific use conditions.

Davis, Samuel E.↗

DOE OSTI2012

TRACING OUTFLOWS AND ACCRETION: A BIMODAL AZIMUTHAL DEPENDENCE OF Mg II ABSORPTION

We report a bimodality in the azimuthal angle distribution of gas around galaxies as traced by Mg II absorption: halo gas prefers to exist near the projected galaxy major and minor axes. The bimodality is demonstrated by computing the mean azimuthal angle probability distribution function using 88 spectroscopically confirmed Mg II-absorption-selected galaxies [W{sub r} (2796) {>=} 0.1 A] and 35 spectroscopically confirmed non-absorbing galaxies [W{sub r} (2796) < 0.1 A] imaged with Hubble Space Telescope and Sloan Digital Sky Survey. The azimuthal angle distribution for non-absorbers is flat, indicating no azimuthal preference for gas characterized by W{sub r} (2796) < 0.1 A. We find that blue star-forming galaxies clearly drive the bimodality while red passive galaxies may exhibit an excess along their major axis. These results are consistent with galaxy evolution scenarios where star-forming galaxies accrete new gas, forming new stars and producing winds, while red galaxies exist passively due to reduced gas reservoirs. We further compute an azimuthal angle dependent Mg II absorption covering fraction, which is enhanced by as much as 20%-30% along the major and minor axes. The W{sub r} (2796) distribution for gas along the major axis is likely skewed toward weaker Mg II absorption than for gas along the projected minor axis. These combined results are highly suggestive that the bimodality is driven by gas accreted along the galaxy major axis and outflowing along the galaxy minor axis. Adopting these assumptions, we find that the opening angle of outflows and inflows to be 100 Degree-Sign and 40 Degree-Sign , respectively. We find that the probability of detecting outflows is {approx}60%, implying that winds are more commonly observed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Galinstan liquid metal breakup and droplet formation in a shock-induced cross-flow

Liquid metal breakup processes are important for understanding a variety of physical phenomena including metal powder formation, thermal spray coatings, fragmentation in explosive detonations and metalized propellant combustion. Since the breakup behaviors of liquid metals are not well studied, we experimentally investigate the roles of higher density and fast elastic surface oxide formation on breakup morphology and droplet characteristics. This work compares the column breakup of water with Galinstan, a room-temperature eutectic liquid metal alloy of gallium, indium and tin. A shock tube is used to generate a step change in convective velocity and back-lit imaging is used to classify morphologies for Weber numbers up to 250. Digital in-line holography (DIH) is then used to quantitatively capture droplet size, velocity and three-dimensional position information. Differences in geometry between canonical spherical drops and the liquid columns utilized in this paper are likely responsible for observations of earlier transition Weber numbers and uni-modal droplet volume distributions. Scaling laws indicate that Galinstan and water share similar droplet size-velocity trends and root-normal volume probability distributions. Furthermore, measurements indicate that Galinstan breakup occurs earlier in non-dimensional time and produces more non-spherical droplets due to fast oxide formation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2012

Eigenstate Localization in an Asymmetric Coupled Quantum Well Pair

Optical pumping of a type-I/type-II coupled asymmetric quantum well pair induces a spatially separated two dimensional charge carriers plasma in the well's wide and narrow parts. Treating the two coupled wells as a single system we find that the eigenstate probability distribution localizes exclusively either in the wide or the narrow parts of the well pair. The energy of the narrow-well localized state determines the minimal excitation energy for optically pumped charge carriers separation. In a previously used design [Guliamov et al., PRB 64 035314 (2001)] this narrow well transition energy was measured to correspond to a wavelength of 646 nm. We propose modifications to the design suggested earlier with the purpose of pushing up the energy required for the optical pumping of the two-dimensional plasma into the green and blue regions of the visible spectrum.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2012

Waste management project's alternatives: A risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) approach

Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We examine the evaluation of a waste management project's alternatives. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We present a novel risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) approach. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer In the RBMCA the evaluation criteria are based on the quantitative risk analysis of the project's alternatives. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Correlation between the criteria weight values and the decision makers' risk preferences is examined. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Preference to the multi-criteria against the one-criterion evaluation process is discussed. - Abstract: This paper examines the evaluation of a waste management project's alternatives through a quantitative risk analysis. Cost benefit analysis is a widely used method, in which the investments are mainly assessed through the calculation of their evaluation indicators, namely benefit/cost (B/C) ratios, as well as the quantification of their financial, technical, environmental and social risks. Herein, a novel approach in the form of risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) is introduced, which can be used by decision makers, in order to select the optimum alternative of a waste management project. Specifically, decision makers use multiple criteria, which are based on the cumulative probability distribution functions of the alternatives' B/C ratios. The RBMCA system is used for the evaluation of a waste incineration project's alternatives, where the correlation between the criteria weight values and the decision makers' risk preferences is analyzed and useful conclusions are discussed.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2011

A course-grained model for polyethylene glycol polymer

A coarse-grained (CG) model of polyethylene glycol (PEG) was developed and implemented in CG molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of PEG chains with degree of polymerization (DP) 20 and 40. In the model, two repeat units of PEG are grouped as one CG bead. Atomistic MD simulation of PEG chains with DP = 20 was first conducted to obtain the bonded structural probability distribution functions (PDFs) and nonbonded pair correlation function (PCF) of the CG beads. The bonded CG potentials are obtained by simple inversion of the corresponding PDFs. The CG nonbonded potential is parameterized to the PCF using both an inversion procedure based on the Ornstein-Zernike equation with the Percus-Yevick approximation (OZPY{sup -1}) and a combination of OZPY{sup -1} with the iterative Boltzmann inversion (IBI) method (OZPY{sup -1}+IBI). As a simple one step method, the OZPY{sup -1} method possesses an advantage in computational efficiency. Using the potential from OZPY{sup -1} as an initial guess, the IBI method shows fast convergence. The coarse-grained molecular dynamics (CGMD) simulations of PEG chains with DP = 20 using potentials from both methods satisfactorily reproduce the structural properties from atomistic MD simulation of the same systems. The OZPY{sup -1}+IBI method yields better agreement than the OZPY{sup -1} method alone. The new CG model and CG potentials from OZPY{sup -1}+IBI method was further tested through CGMD simulation of PEG with DP = 40 system. No significant changes are observed in the comparison of PCFs from CGMD simulations of PEG with DP = 20 and 40 systems indicating that the potential is independent of chain length.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2012

Electron transport in discontinuous gold films and the effect of Coulomb blockade and percolation

Understanding the electron transport in disordered assemblies of weakly coupled nano-sized metal clusters is important for many applications. Here, we investigate experimentally and theoretically the electron transport properties of metal cluster assemblies in the form of discontinuous gold films. Discontinuous films of different average island size are produced by sputter deposition, and the resistance and the non-linear current-voltage (I-V) characteristics of the films are measured as a function of temperature. To interpret the experimental electron transport data, a conduction percolation model is employed where broad probability distributions for both the tunnel junction gaps and the Coulomb blockade energies are used. Excellent agreement between experimental data and model calculations is found. In particular, the non-Arrhenius resistive behavior, the I-V power-law behavior, and the I-V characteristics at large bias voltage are all shown to be due to a conduction percolation mechanism governing disordered networks of nano-sized metal islands connected by tunnel junctions.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2011

THE INFLUENCE OF PICK-UP IONS ON SPACE PLASMA DISTRIBUTIONS

The addition and incorporation of highly ordered distributions of pickup ions can increase the ordering of space plasmas, decreasing their entropy, and driving them away from equilibrium. In this study, we present a model for describing the entropy decrease of heliospheric plasmas caused by the pick-up ions and their highly ordered arrangement. We consider a plasma flow consisting of two proton populations: (1) a solar wind distribution that is in quasi-equilibrium and (2) a spherical shell distribution of pick-up protons. Because all protons are indistinguishable, they equally share a hybrid state, where the hybrid probability distribution is given by the normalized sum of the distributions of the solar wind and pick-up protons. We derive an analytical formulation of the thickness of the pick-up proton shell distribution. Then we show that the entropy of the hybrid state depends on a dimensionless fluctuation number, {Theta}, which is a measure of the organizing role of pick-up protons. This number characterizes and compares two types of fluctuations, the thermal motion of solar wind protons and the bounded motion of pick-up protons that forms the spherical shell distribution. We find that the entropy variation between the hybrid and original states is proportional to the negative logarithm of {Theta}. When the two competing fluctuations balance each other, {Theta} {approx} 1, the pick-up protons have no effect on the entropy of solar wind protons. Remarkably, while sunward of the termination shock pick-up ions act to slightly increase entropy, throughout the inner heliosheath their effect is to decrease the entropy dramatically.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2014

CANDELS/GOODS-S, CDFS, and ECDFS: photometric redshifts for normal and X-ray-detected galaxies

We present photometric redshifts and associated probability distributions for all detected sources in the Extended Chandra Deep Field South (ECDFS). This work makes use of the most up-to-date data from the Cosmic Assembly Near-IR Deep Legacy Survey (CANDELS) and the Taiwan ECDFS Near-Infrared Survey (TENIS) in addition to other data. We also revisit multi-wavelength counterparts for published X-ray sources from the 4 Ms CDFS and 250 ks ECDFS surveys, finding reliable counterparts for 1207 out of 1259 sources (∼96%). Data used for photometric redshifts include intermediate-band photometry deblended using the TFIT method, which is used for the first time in this work. Photometric redshifts for X-ray source counterparts are based on a new library of active galactic nuclei/galaxy hybrid templates appropriate for the faint X-ray population in the CDFS. Photometric redshift accuracy for normal galaxies is 0.010 and for X-ray sources is 0.014 and outlier fractions are 4% and 5.2%, respectively. The results within the CANDELS coverage area are even better, as demonstrated both by spectroscopic comparison and by galaxy-pair statistics. Intermediate-band photometry, even if shallow, is valuable when combined with deep broadband photometry. For best accuracy, templates must include emission lines.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗