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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 685 records · Page 38
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Characterizing the contribution of bioaerosols diversity from complex aerosol particle samples.

Current global change scenarios expect to significantly increase the contribution of pollen to the total organic aerosol budget. In addition, pollen can burst into smaller fragments that are highly efficient as cloud condensation nuclei. However, current climate models still do not incorporate the effects of these particles due to detection and quantification challenges in complex aerosol mixtures. Chemical biomarkers (i.e. fructose) have commonly been used to trace pollen but this approximation can generate false positive results given the large number of shared compounds between different bioaerosols. A previous pilot EMSL experiment performed on pure pollen samples suggested that using a set of metabolites as a fingerprint of bioaerosols could serve to substantially increase detection accuracy over single biomarker approaches. In this proposal we developed novel bioinformatic strategies to characterize and quantify complex pollen mixtures present in the atmosphere. For that, we used diverse machine learning algorithms to analyze metabolic fingerprints from complex mixtures of different pollen acquired with high-resolution mass spectrometry (Orbitrap Q-Exactive). Our preliminary results demonstrated the potential to accurately discern and identify at specific relative abundances different pollen species in complex mixtures. Our research will lead to a significant advancement in the atmospheric chemistry and provide much needed data to improve the accuracy of climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Remote Radiation Sensing Using Aerial and Ground Platforms

Remote sensing of ionizing radiation has a significant role in waste management, nuclear material management and nonproliferation, and radiation safety. Robotic platforms can surpass the number of tasks that are achieved by humans. With this technique, the operator's radiation exposure can be decreased. Remote sensing allows for the evaluation and monitoring of radiological contamination. Gamma-ray and neutron sensors were integrated onto the robotic platforms. This approach allows for the radiation sensor data to be dynamically tracked and mapped thus enabling further analysis of the radiation flux in temporal and spatial domains. The goal is to complete scheduled tasks while the robot is being irradiated. To achieve this, electronic components must be shielded and radiation hardened. CZT Detector: Cadmium Zinc Telluride (CZT) detector technology has been a promising solution for gamma-ray and x-ray measurements. Detector data is transferred to the Odroid minicomputer that controls and powers the module via the USB. Robot Operating System (ROS) was utilized for data acquisition and data fusion. The Mariscotti method was employed for the spectrum analysis. A function was programmed in ROS for the automatic identification of photopeaks. CLYC Detector: A Cs{sub 2}LiYCl{sub 6}:Ce{sup 3+} (CLYC) detector was used for simultaneous medium-resolution gamma-ray measurements and neutron counting. A 2.54 cm diameter photomultiplier tube (PMT) was equipped with a high voltage supply and a miniature digitizer. Gamma-ray excitation: fast core-to-valence luminescence (CVL) with 1 ns decay constant, and prompt Ce{sup 3+} emission with 50 ns decay constant. Neutron excitation: slow cerium self-trapped excitation (Ce{sup 3+} STE), 1000 ns decay constant. Radiation Source Localization: Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and gradient-based methods were used to locate the position of a radiation source based on measured radiation intensities. Multi-Particle Transport Code FLUKA: Estimation of radiation damage of the electronic components is important in order to optimize the robot's operational time while it is irradiated. Displacement per atom (DPA) represents the radiation damage in materials exposed to the ionizing radiation. Various shielding layers of different thickness t were analyzed (< 5% statistical error). The model of the controller of the UAS was designed in FLUKA. Conclusion: CZT and CLYC detectors were integrated onto the robotic platforms. Radiation source localization and contour mapping using robotic platforms were studied. Functions for data analysis and fusion were developed in ROS. FLUKA code was utilized to analyze DPA values. Layers of low-density and high-density materials were used to shield the UAS electronics.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Measurement of the muon spin precession frequency using the straw tracking detectors at the Fermilab Muon g-2 experiment

The measurement of the anomalous magnetic dipole moment of the muon ($a_{\mu}$) has long stood as an excellent precision test of the Standard Model (SM). The Fermilab Muon g-2 experiment has recently finished data-taking and in July 2023 published its latest determination of $a_\mu$ with a world-leading precision of 0.2\,ppm. In this publication, it surpassed the systematic uncertainty goal defined in the TDR. The analyses of a dataset approximately four times larger than this recent publication is now underway. The principle measurement of the Muon g-2 experiment measures $a_{\mu}$ by taking the ratio of two frequencies; the anomalous precession frequency ($\omega_a$) and the muon-weighted magnetic field of the experiment's storage ring measured from the precession frequency of protons in water using nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) probes. In all publications to date, $\omega_a$ has been determined using energy deposits in the 24 calorimeters. However, the Fermilab experiment has t wo straw tracker detectors measuring the time and momentum of charged particles which can in principle also be used to to measure $\omega_a$ and such a measurement can provide an invaluable cross-check of the calorimeter result with different, and reduced, systematic uncertainties. This thesis presents the first (blinded) determination of $\omega_a$ using just charged tracks from the straw tracking detectors as opposed to calorimeter energy deposits. This analysis was undertaken using the Run-2/3 dataset which represents approximately 25\% of the final dataset. A total uncertainty of 2.19\,ppm on $\omega_a$ was obtained which is dominated by the statistical uncertainty of 2.16\,ppm. Additionally two new methodologies important to the analysis of the straw tracking data have been developed: one to better determine the track arrival time ($t_0$) and one to determine the level of pileup in the tracking detectors. The new $t_0$ algorithm which incorporates angular information improves t he resolution on the determination of the $t_0$ by a factor of two and results in 19\% more tracks being successfully reconstructed. The data from the trackers is also used to determine the beam profile that weights the magnetic field in the determination of $a_\mu$ and in determining several of the systematic uncertainties in the calorimeter-based $\omega_a$ analysis. A detailed study of the impact of the internal alignment of the tracker, the $t_0$ and pileup on the determination of the beam position was undertaken and propagated through to an uncertainty in the $\omega_a$ determination. These uncertainties were used in the Fermilab Muon g-2 experiment's recent publication in Phys. Rev. Lett.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Characterizing uncertainties in ground “truth” of precipitation over complex terrain through high-resolution numerical modeling

Ground observation of precipitation over complex terrain is subject to large uncertainties due to inadequate sampling. This study explores a method that combines limited gauge data and a high-resolution numerical simulation to quantify the precipitation uncertainties in central Himalaya. Specifically, the Coefficient of spatial Variability (CV) of precipitation and the minimum Number of Required Stations (NRS) to obtain areal-mean precipitation ground truth values within a 0.25-degree area are investigated using fine-scale meteorological simulation at 1.5 km grid spacing. Evaluation over a densely-gauged area demonstrates comparable CV and NRS values between station observations and simulations. The simulated CV and NRS values in a larger area show a strong and positive dependence on each other and an expected positive (negative) correlation with topographic complexity (temporal scale). The proposed method sheds lights on evaluating precipitation products and holds promise for informing the layout of rain gauge networks in complex terrain.

Ouyang, Lin↗
DOE OSTI2020

VersaBuild: A Novel, Multi-scale, Versatile 3d Printer Concept

Our team has identified and attempted to solve a major challenge limiting the increased deployment of additive manufacturing in full-scale production environments. As engineers desire for greater flexibility of design grows, and as the diversity of properties achievable and materials usable in additive manufacturing increases, additive manufacturing becomes increasingly valuable and useful. However, the machines used to produce AM parts have largely stagnated in terms of configurability, technology, and design. We have conceptualized a system which enables a single machine to provide the functionality of multiple machines, with minimal operator changes. The gap that was identified by the team was the lack of a system that could accept user-configurable changes to the print resolution and printbed size. This would enable manufacturers flexibility in the size, quality, and quantity of parts produced in a facility of a given size. Significant floorspace savings could be achieved in a facility deploying our proposed solution due to the flexibility of the machine, lowering operational cost. Our envisioned design is similar in concept to a standard Delta robot, which is a three-armed robot that is used in many industrial applications. However, we intend for our design to have extensible delta arms that include position sensing, allowing for a greater range of motion and thus print volume while maintaining precise control over the printhead position. Some of the key risks associated with are system are caused by the novelty of the concept. Our system must undergo significant R&D and requires a fully integrated software, electrical, and mechanical system to be developed.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

High-resolution optical micro-spectroscopy extending from the near-infrared to the vacuum-ultraviolet

Optical characterization of small samples over a wide spectral range with rapid data acquisition is essential for the analysis of many material systems, such as 2D van der Waals layers and their heterostructures. In this paper, we present the design and implementation of a tabletop micro-spectroscopy system covering the near-infrared to the vacuum-ultraviolet (1.2 eV–6.8 eV or ~1.0 μm to 185 nm) using mostly off-the-shelf components. It can measure highly reproducible local reflectance spectra with a total integration time of a few minutes and a full-width-half-maximum spot size of 2.7 by 5.6 μm. For precise positioning, the design also allows simultaneous monitoring of the measurement location and the wide-field image of the sample. We demonstrate ultra-broadband reflectance spectra of exfoliated thin flakes of several wide-gap 2D materials, including ZnPS 3 , hexagonal BN, and Ca(OH) 2 .

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Time-resolved β-lactam cleavage by L1 metallo-β-lactamase

Abstract Serial x-ray crystallography can uncover binding events, and subsequent chemical conversions occurring during enzymatic reaction. Here, we reveal the structure, binding and cleavage of moxalactam antibiotic bound to L1 metallo-β-lactamase (MBL) from Stenotrophomonas maltophilia . Using time-resolved serial synchrotron crystallography, we show the time course of β-lactam hydrolysis and determine ten snapshots (20, 40, 60, 80, 100, 150, 300, 500, 2000 and 4000 ms) at 2.20 Å resolution. The reaction is initiated by laser pulse releasing Zn 2+ ions from a UV-labile photocage. Two metal ions bind to the active site, followed by binding of moxalactam and the intact β-lactam ring is observed for 100 ms after photolysis. Cleavage of β-lactam is detected at 150 ms and the ligand is significantly displaced. The reaction product adjusts its conformation reaching steady state at 2000 ms corresponding to the relaxed state of the enzyme. Only small changes are observed in the positions of Zn 2+ ions and the active site residues. Mechanistic details captured here can be generalized to other MBLs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Structure of an RNA G-quadruplex from the West Nile virus genome

Potential G-quadruplex sites have been identified in the genomes of DNA and RNA viruses and proposed as regulatory elements. The genus Orthoflavivirus contains arthropod-transmitted, positive-sense, single-stranded RNA viruses that cause significant human disease globally. Computational studies have identified multiple potential G-quadruplex sites that are conserved across members of this genus. Subsequent biophysical studies established that some G-quadruplexes predicted in Zika and tickborne encephalitis virus genomes can form and known quadruplex binders reduced viral yields from cells infected with these viruses. The susceptibility of RNA to degradation and the variability of loop regions have made structure determination challenging. Despite these difficulties, we report a high-resolution structure of the NS5-B quadruplex from the West Nile virus genome. Analysis reveals two stacked tetrads that are further stabilized by a stacked triad and transient noncanonical base pairing. This structure expands the landscape of solved RNA quadruplex structures and demonstrates the diversity and complexity of biological quadruplexes. We anticipate that the availability of this structure will assist in solving further viral RNA quadruplexes and provides a model for a conserved antiviral target in Orthoflavivirus genomes.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The electrode–electrolyte interface of Cu via modulation excitation X-ray absorption spectroscopy

The development and application of modulation excitation X-ray absorption spectroscopy with sub-second resolution and better than 0.02% detection sensitivity unveils the kinetics of the anodic oxidation of Cu in bicarbonate electrolytes. Accessing the electrode–electrolyte interface under operating conditions and capturing time-resolved kinetics remain challenging in electrochemical studies. Copper's interfacial oxidation dynamics remain unclear despite extensive research. Modulation excitation X-ray absorption spectroscopy (ME-XAS) was used to probe Cu in 100 mM KHCO 3 with sub-second sensitivity, revealing that hydroxide forms 30 ± 10 ms before the appearance of Cu 2 O at positive potentials (0 to 0.5 V vs. RHE) near open-circuit conditions. From −0.4 to 0.8 V vs. RHE, hydroxide coverage reaches 49%, accompanied by a balanced presence of Cu( i ) and Cu( ii ) oxides. These insights into Cu interfacial redox behavior under intermittent renewable energy operation—relevant to CO 2 electrolyzer durability—enhance our fundamental understanding of electrochemical interfaces.

Garcia-Esparza, Angel T↗
DOE OSTI2023

Temperature dependence of resistivity of carbon micro/nanostructures: Microscale spatial distribution with mixed metallic and semiconductive behaviors

The temperature coefficient of resistivity (θ T ) of carbon-based materials is a critical property that directly determines their electrical response upon thermal impulses. It could have metal- (positive) or semiconductor-like (negative) behavior, depending on the combined temperature dependence of electron density and electron scattering. Its distribution in space is very difficult to measure and is rarely studied. Here, for the first time, we report that carbon-based micro/nanoscale structures have a strong non-uniform spatial distribution of θ T . This distribution is probed by measuring the transient electro-thermal response of the material under extremely localized step laser heating and scanning, which magnifies the local θ T effect in the measured transient voltage evolution. For carbon microfibers (CMFs), after electrical current annealing, θ T varies from negative to positive from the sample end to the center with a magnitude change of >130% over <1 mm. This θ T sign change is confirmed by directly testing smaller segments from different regions of an annealed CMF. For micro-thick carbon nanotube bundles, θ T is found to have a relative change of >125% within a length of ~2 mm, uncovering strong metallic to semiconductive behavior change in space. In conclusion, our θ T scanning technique can be readily extended to nm-thick samples with μm scanning resolution to explore the distribution of θ T and provide a deep insight into the local electron conduction.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Systems Approach to Estimating the Uncertainty Limits of X-Ray Radiographic Metrology

Micro- and nanomanufacturing capabilities have rapidly expanded over the past decade to include complex three-dimensional (3D) structure fabrication; however, the metrology required to accurately assess these processes via part inspection and characterization has struggled to keep pace. X-ray computed tomography (CT) is considered an ideal candidate for providing the critically needed metrology on the smallest scales, especially internal features, or inaccessible regions. X-ray CT supporting micro- and nanomanufacturing often push against the poorly understood resolution and variation limits inherent to the machines, which can distort or hide fine structures. In this study, we have developed and experimentally verify a comprehensive analytical uncertainty propagation signal variation flow graph (SVFG) model for X-ray radiography in this work to better understand resolution and image variability limits on the small scale. The SVFG approach captures, quantifies, and predicts variations occurring in the system that limit metrology capabilities, particularly in the micro/nanodomain. This work is the first step to achieving full uncertainty modeling of CT reconstructions and provides insight into improving X-ray attenuation imaging systems. The SVFG methodology framework is applied to generate a complete basis set of functions describing the major sources of variation in radiographs. Five models are identified, covering variation in energy, intensity, length, blur, and position. Radiographic system experiments are defined to measure the parameters required by the SVFGs. Best practices are identified for these measurements. The SVFG models are confirmed via direct measurement of variation to predict variation within 30% on average.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mapathons versus automated feature extraction: a comparative analysis for strengthening immunization microplanning

Background: Social instability and logistical factors like the displacement of vulnerable populations, the difficulty of accessing these populations, and the lack of geographic information for hard-to-reach areas continue to serve as barriers to global essential immunizations (EI). Microplanning, a population-based, healthcare intervention planning method has begun to leverage geographic information system (GIS) technology and geospatial methods to improve the remote identification and mapping of vulnerable populations to ensure inclusion in outreach and immunization services, when feasible. We compare two methods of accomplishing a remote inventory of building locations to assess their accuracy and similarity to currently employed microplan line-lists in the study area. Methods: The outputs of a crowd-sourced digitization effort, or mapathon, were compared to those of a machine-learning algorithm for digitization, referred to as automatic feature extraction (AFE). The following accuracy assessments were employed to determine the performance of each feature generation method: (1) an agreement analysis of the two methods assessed the occurrence of matches across the two outputs, where agreements were labeled as “befriended” and disagreements as “lonely”; (2) true and false positive percentages of each method were calculated in comparison to satellite imagery; (3) counts of features generated from both the mapathon and AFE were statistically compared to the number of features listed in the microplan line-list for the study area; and (4) population estimates for both feature generation method were determined for every structure identified assuming a total of three households per compound, with each household averaging two adults and 5 children. Results: The mapathon and AFE outputs detected 92,713 and 53,150 features, respectively. A higher proportion (30%) of AFE features were befriended compared with befriended mapathon points (28%). The AFE had a higher true positive rate (90.5%) of identifying structures than the mapathon (84.5%). The difference in the average number of features identified per area between the microplan and mapathon points was larger (t = 3.56) than the microplan and AFE (t = -2.09) (alpha = 0.05). Conclusions: Our findings indicate AFE outputs had higher agreement (i.e., befriended), slightly higher likelihood of correctly identifying a structure, and were more similar to the local microplan line-lists than the mapathon outputs. These findings suggest AFE may be more accurate for identifying structures in high-resolution satellite imagery than mapathons. However, they both had their advantages and the ideal method would utilize both methods in tandem.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Atomistic Positioning of Defects in Helium Ion Treated Single-Layer MoS 2

Structuring materials with atomic precision is the ultimate goal of nanotechnology and is becoming increasingly relevant as an enabling technology for quantum electronics/spintronics and quantum photonics. Here, we create atomic defects in monolayer MoS 2 by helium ion (He-ion) beam lithography with a spatial fidelity approaching the single-atom limit in all three dimensions. Using low-temperature scanning tunneling microscopy (STM), we confirm the formation of individual point defects in MoS 2 upon He-ion bombardment and show that defects are generated within 9 nm of the incident helium ions. Atom-specific sputtering yields are determined by analyzing the type and occurrence of defects observed in high-resolution STM images and compared with Monte Carlo simulations. Both theory and experiment indicate that the He-ion bombardment predominantly generates sulfur vacancies.

Two-dimensional materials↗
DOE OSTI2021

Simultaneous Discovery of Positive and Negative Interactions Among Rhizosphere Bacteria Using Microwell Recovery Arrays

Understanding microbe-microbe interactions is critical to predict microbiome function and to construct communities for desired outcomes. Investigation of these interactions poses a significant challenge due to the lack of suitable experimental tools available. Here we present the microwell recovery array (MRA), a new technology platform that screens interactions across a microbiome to uncover higher-order strain combinations that inhibit or promote the function of a focal species. One experimental trial generates 10 4 microbial communities that contain the focal species and a distinct random sample of uncharacterized cells from plant rhizosphere. Cells are sequentially recovered from individual wells that display highest or lowest levels of focal species growth using a high-resolution photopolymer extraction system. Interacting species are then identified and putative interactions are validated. Using this approach, we screen the poplar rhizosphere for strains affecting the growth of Pantoea sp. YR343, a plant growth promoting bacteria isolated from Populus deltoides rhizosphere. In one screen, we montiored 3,600 microwells within the array to uncover multiple antagonistic Stenotrophomonas strains and a set of Enterobacter strains that promoted YR343 growth. The later demonstrates the unique ability of the platform to discover multi-membered consortia that generate emergent outcomes, thereby expanding the range of phenotypes that can be characterized from microbiomes. This knowledge will aid in the development of consortia for Populus production, while the platform offers a new approach for screening and discovery of microbial interactions, applicable to any microbiome.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

An international laboratory comparison of dissolved organic matter composition by high resolution mass spectrometry: Are we getting the same answer?

Since the first detailed compositional analysis of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in 1995, high resolution mass spectrometry (HRMS) has become a vital tool for DOM characterization. While the upward trend in HRMS for molecular level analysis of DOM continues, so do the challenges of data comparison and interpretation between laboratories operating instruments of differing performance and user operating conditions. It is therefore essential that the community establishes whether data and trends can be compared robustly between research groups. To this end, 4 identically prepared DOM samples were each studied by 16 laboratories, representing 17 commercially-purchased instruments located across 8 countries, using positive- and negative-mode electrospray ionization (ESI) HRMS analysis. Despite the widely reported sensitivity of ESI experiments to sample matrix, preparation, ion source operation and instrument tuning parameters, the instruments used in this study showed relatively low variability between results for the same samples, particularly H/C and AI metrics. The variation in O/C and m/z metrics was relatively higher, although z-score graphs and %BCD demonstrated that the relative difference in general chemical composition between samples was the same for each instrument included in the study. As such, these metrics can be used for fingerprinting of DOM samples and as a benchmark for quality control in participating laboratories, with future strides in environmental science building upon these efforts.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Investigation of the Impurities in Erythritol Tetranitrate (ETN) Using UHPLC-QTOF

In order to further gain a comprehensive chemical understanding of erythritol tetranitrate (ETN), the synthesis impurities of ETN were investigated using ultrahigh performance liquid chromatography with tandem high resolution mass spectrometry (UHPLC-MS/MS). A total of 12 impurities were identified relating to the synthesis of ETN. We have synthesized pure analytical standards of erythritol-1,4-dinitrate (1,4-EDiN) and erythritol-1,2,4-trinitrate (1,2,4-ETriN). Furthermore, these isomerically pure standards have allowed for confirmation of the identity of some of the discovered impurities. Additionally, partially nitrated with sulfate substituted erythritol was identified which is theorized to have formed from the incomplete displacement of the formed sulfate group on the alcohol position during nitration.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

First 3D vector tracking of helium recoils for fast neutron measurements at Super$\mathrm{KEKB}$

Here we present results from the first deployment of novel, high definition, compact gas Time Projection Chambers (TPCs) with pixel chip readout as part of the BEAST II beam background measurement project at SuperKEKB. The TPCs provide detailed 3D imaging of ionization from neutron-induced nuclear recoils in a helium and carbon dioxide target gas mixture at standard temperature and pressure. We present the TPC performance and the neutron backgrounds observed during the initial stage of collider commissioning. We find excellent electron background rejection, leading to background-free nuclear recoil measurements above 50 keV ee , despite the extreme high-background environment. We measure an angular resolution better than 20° for recoil tracks longer than 1.7 mm, corresponding to an average ionization energy of approximately 100 keV ee . We also obtain the full 3D vector direction of helium recoils by utilizing charge profile measurements along the recoil axis, with a correct head/tail assignment efficiency of approximately 80%. With this performance, we present comparisons between measured and simulated event rates, recoil energy spectra, and directional distributions originating from beam–gas and Touschek beam losses at SuperKEKB. We utilize head/tail recognition to distinguish neutron components traveling with positive radial velocity in the Belle II coordinate system from those traveling in the opposite direction. Finally, we present a novel method of discriminating beam–gas interactions from Touschek beam losses that can eliminate the need for dedicated accelerator runs for background measurements. This method is still statistics-limited. However, future studies should be able to verify this method, which in turn could lead to neutron background analysis runs symbiotic with normal Belle II operation. The capabilities demonstrated here also suggest that high definition recoil imaging in gas TPCs is applicable to low energy, low-background experiments, such as directional dark matter searches.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Feedbacks Between Surface Deformation and Permafrost Degradation in Ice Wedge Polygons, Arctic Coastal Plain, Alaska

In the past three decades, an abrupt, pan-Arctic acceleration of ice wedge melting has transformed tundra landscapes, spurring the formation of hummock-like features known as high-centered polygons (HCPs). This rapid geomorphic transition profoundly alters regional hydrology and influences surface emissions of CO 2 and CH 4 . In Arctic Alaska, most recent instances of ice wedge degradation have arrested within 15–20 years of inception, stabilizing HCP microtopography. However, feedbacks between ground surface deformation and permafrost stability are incompletely understood, limiting our capacity to predict trajectories of landscape evolution in a still warmer future. In this work, we use field data from a site near Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, to develop a modeling-based framework for assessing the strength of positive (i.e., exacerbating) feedbacks on ice wedge degradation, focusing on the importance of heterogeneity in surface drainage and microtopographic conditions. Our simulations suggest that, when troughs are narrow, positive feedbacks on ice wedge melting (associated with thermokarst pool formation) are relatively weak. Positive feedbacks are markedly stronger beneath wide troughs, such as those that form above older, larger ice wedges. Seasonal thaw abruptly accelerates once a talik begins to form beneath wide and deep thermokarst pools. Once a talik initiates, winter severity and snowpack thickness increase in importance as predictors of thaw intensity in summer. Our results indicate that meter-scale heterogeneity in polygonal microtopography potentially exerts strong, nonlinear controls on thermokarst trajectories. These findings are useful for predicting future thermokarst dynamics and for interpreting the results from coarser-resolution land surface models operating at greater spatial and temporal scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗