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NASA NTRS1982

The effects of sunspots on solar irradiance

It is pointed out that the darkness of a sunspot on the visible hemisphere of the sun will reduce the solar irradiance on the earth. Approaches are discussed for obtaining a crude estimate of the irradiance deficit produced by sunspots and of the total luminosity reduction for the whole global population of sunspots. Attention is given to a photometric sunspot index, a global measure of spot flux deficit, and models for the compensating flux excess. A model is shown for extrapolating visible-hemisphere spot areas to the invisible hemisphere. As an illustration, this extrapolation is used to calculate a very simple model for the reradiation necessary to balance the flux deficit.

Hudson, H. S.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Solar wind ionization temperatures inferred from the charge state composition of diffuse particle events

Detailed measurements of the charge state composition of energetic heavy ions in the diffuse component are presented for the first time. Spectral characteristics and charge state measurements for 12 diffuse ion events observed upstream of the earth's bow shock are reported. One event is analyzed in order to illustrate the basic assumptions and general techniques involved in the determination of charge state composition from the data. The probable solar wind origin of the seed population of the diffuse component is used together with the charge state composition of these heavy ions to estimate the charge state composition in the concurrent solar wind, and hence to infer the equilibrium coronal temperatures associated with a variety of solar wind flows. The results are compared with predicted solar wind values.

Galvin, A. B.↗

NASA NTRS1993

NDE of PWA 1480 single crystal turbine blade material

Cantilever bending fatigue specimens were examined by fluorescent liquid penetrant and radioactive gas penetrant (Krypton) non-destructive evaluation (NDE) methods and tested. Specimens with cast, ground, or polished surface were evaluated to study the effect of surface condition on NDE and fatigue crack initiation. Fractographic and metallurgical analyses were performed to determine the nature of crack precursors. Preliminary results show that fatigue strength was lower for specimens with cast surfaces than for specimens with machined surfaces. The liquid penetrant and gas penetrant techniques both provided indications of a large population of defects on the cast surfaces. On ground or polished specimen surfaces, the gas penetrant appeared to estimate the actual number of voids more accurately than the liquid penetrant.

Klima, Stanley J.↗

NASA NTRS1993

NDE of PWA 1480 single crystal turbine blade material

Cantilever bending fatigue specimens were examined by fluorescent liquid penetrant and radioactive gas penetrant (Krypton) Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) methods and tested. Specimens with cast, ground, or polished surfaces were evaluated to study the effect of surface condition on NDE and fatigue crack initiation. Fractographic and metallurgical analyses were performed to determine the nature of crack precursors. Preliminary results show that fatigue strength was lower for specimens with cast surfaces than for specimens with machined surfaces. The liquid penetrant and gas penetrant techniques both provided indications of a large population of defects on the cast surfaces. On ground or polished specimen surfaces, the gas penetrant appeared to estimate the actual number of voids more accurately than the liquid penetrant.

Klima, Stanley J.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Derivation and Application of a Global Albedo yielding an Optical Brightness To Physical Size Transformation Free of Systematic Errors

Orbital object data acquired via optical telescopes can play a crucial role in accurately defining the space environment. Radar systems probe the characteristics of small debris by measuring the reflected electromagnetic energy from an object of the same order of size as the wavelength of the radiation. This signal is affected by electrical conductivity of the bulk of the debris object, as well as its shape and orientation. Optical measurements use reflected solar radiation with wavelengths much smaller than the size of the objects. Just as with radar, the shape and orientation of an object are important, but we only need to consider the surface electrical properties of the debris material (i.e., the surface albedo), not the bulk electromagnetic properties. As a result, these two methods are complementary in that they measure somewhat independent physical properties to estimate the same thing, debris size. Short arc optical observations such as are typical of NASA's Liquid Mirror Telescope (LMT) give enough information to estimate an Assumed Circular Orbit (ACO) and an associated range. This information, combined with the apparent magnitude, can be used to estimate an "absolute" brightness (scaled to a fixed range and phase angle). This absolute magnitude is what is used to estimate debris size. However, the shape and surface albedo effects make the size estimates subject to systematic and random errors, such that it is impossible to ascertain the size of an individual object with any certainty. However, as has been shown with radar debris measurements, that does not preclude the ability to estimate the size distribution of a number of objects statistically. After systematic errors have been eliminated (range errors, phase function assumptions, photometry) there remains a random geometric albedo distribution that relates object size to absolute magnitude. Measurements by the LMT of a subset of tracked debris objects with sizes estimated from their radar cross sections indicate that the random variations in the albedo follow a log-normal distribution quite well. In addition, this distribution appears to be independent of object size over a considerable range in size. Note that this relation appears to hold for debris only, where the shapes and other properties are not primarily the result of human manufacture, but of random processes. With this information in hand, it now becomes possible to estimate the actual size distribution we are sampling from. We have identified two characteristics of the space debris population that make this process tractable and by extension have developed a methodology for performing the transformation.

Mulrooney, Dr. Mark K.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Observations of the Ion Signatures of Double Merging and the Formation of Newly Closed Field Lines

Observations from the Polar spacecraft, taken during a period of northward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) show magnetosheath ions within the magnetosphere with velocity distributions resulting from multiple merging sites along the same field line. The observations from the TIDE instrument show two separate ion energy-time dispersions that are attributed to two widely separated (-20Re) merging sites. Estimates of the initial merging times show that they occurred nearly simultaneously (within 5 minutes.) Along with these populations, cold, ionospheric ions were observed counterstreaming along the field lines. The presence of such ions is evidence that these field lines are connected to the ionosphere on both ends. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that double merging can produce closed field lines populated by solar wind plasma. While the merging sites cannot be unambiguously located, the observations and analyses favor one site poleward of the northern cusp and a second site at low latitudes.

Chandler, Michael O.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Highly Siderophile Elements as Tracers for the Subcontinental Mantle Evolution Beneath the Southwestern USA: The San Carlos and Kilbourne Hole Peridotite Xenoliths Revisited

Peridotite xenoliths from San Carlos, Arizona, and Kilbourne Hole, New Mexico, have been studied since the 1970 s to give insights into melting and metasomatism in the subcontinental mantle beneath the southwestern USA. More recently, the highly siderophile elements (HSE; Os, Ir, Ru, Rh, Pt, Pd, and Re) and the included Re-Os isotope system have been established as powerful tools for the study of mantle processes because of their range in compatibility during mantle melting and their siderophile and chalcophile geochemical behavior. Model aluminachron Re-Os ages for San Carlos and Kilbourne Hole, as well as for the nearby Dish Hill and Vulcan's Throne sites, give consistent depletion ages of around 2.2 Ga. This age can be interpreted as a single large scale mantle melting event linked to crustal formation and continental growth under the southwestern USA. Highly siderophile elements, however, may be added to depleted peridotites via melt-rock interaction, especially the more incompatible and hence mobile Pt, Pd, and Re. This may result in overprinting of the signature of melt extraction, thus abating the usefulness of Re-Os mantle extraction model ages. A comprehensive characterization of the suite of mantle xenoliths from the SW USA in terms of HSE concentrations is thus necessary to re-assess the Re-Os system for dating purposes. San Carlos peridotites are depleted to moderately fertile, as indicated by their bulk Al2O3 contents between 0.66 wt% and 3.13 wt%. Bulk Os-187/Os-188 in San Carlos peridotites range from 0.1206 to 0.1357. In contrast, Kilbourne Hole peridotites tend to be more fertile with Al2O3 between 2.11 and 3.78 wt%, excluding one extremely depleted sample with 0.30 wt% Al2O3, and have Os-187/Os-188 between 0.1156 and 0.1272, typical for mantle peridotites. No large fractionation between the more compatible HSE Os, Ir, and Ru are observed. The more incompatible HSE Re, Pd, and to a minor extent, Pt, however, are depleted in a number of samples by factors of up to 4 for Pt, 6 for Pd, and 20 for Re, compared to primitive mantle estimates. This is in agreement with previous studies from the same locales, which demonstrated the presence of different populations of mantle xenoliths having undergone various degrees of melt extraction. The depletion of the more incompatible elements (Re, Pd, and Pt) also suggests that the HSE budgets of the SW USA peridotites were primarily established by extraction of basaltic melt, and reflect only minor influence from later episodes of metasomatism. Model Re-Os ages obtained from San Carlos and Kilbourne Hole xenoliths may thus reflect ages of crustal formation and mantle depletion in the SW USA region.

vanAcken, D.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Are Soybean Models Ready for Climate Change Food Impact Assessments?

An accurate estimation of crop yield under climate change scenarios is essential to quantify our ability to feed a growing population and develop agronomic adaptations to meet future food demand. A coordinated evaluation of yield simulations from process-based eco-physiological models for climate change impact assessment is still missing for soybean, the most widely grown grain legume and the main source of protein in our food chain. In this first soybean multi-model study, we used ten prominent models capable of simulating soybean yield under varying temperature and atmospheric CO 2 concentration [CO 2 ] to quantify the uncertainty in soybean yield simulations in response to these factors. Models were first parametrized with high quality measured data from five contrasting environments. We found considerable variability among models in simulated yield responses to increasing temperature and [CO 2 ]. For example, under a + 3 °C temperature rise in our coolest location in Argentina, some models simulated that yield would reduce as much as 24%, while others simulated yield increases up to 29%. In our warmest location in Brazil, the models simulated a yield reduction ranging from a 38% decrease under + 3 °C temperature rise to no effect on yield. Similarly, when increasing [CO 2 ] from 360 to 540 ppm, the models simulated a yield increase that ranged from 6% to 31%. Model calibration did not reduce variability across models but had an unexpected effect on modifying yield responses to temperature for some of the models. The high uncertainty in model responses indicates the limited applicability of individual models for climate change food projections. However, the ensemble mean of simulations across models was an effective tool to reduce the high uncertainty in soybean yield simulations associated with individual models and their parametrization. Ensemble, ensemble mean yield responses to temperature and [CO 2 ] were similar to those reported from the literature. Our study is the first demonstration of the benefits achieved from using an ensemble of grain legume models for climate change food projections, and highlights that further soybean model development with experiments under elevated [CO 2 ] and temperature is needed to reduce the uncertainty from the individual models.

Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvemen↗

DOE OSTI2025

Uncovering heterogeneous intercommunity disease transmission from neutral allele frequency time series

The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the need for accurate epidemic forecasting to predict pathogen spread, evolution, and evaluate intervention strategies. Forecast reliability hinges on detailed knowledge of disease transmission across population segments, which may be inferred from contact surveys or mobility data. However, these indirect approaches make it difficult to estimate rare transmissions between socially or geographically distant communities. We show that the steep ramp-up of genome sequencing surveillance during the pandemic can be leveraged to directly identify transmission patterns between geographically defined communities. Our approach uses a hidden Markov model to infer the fraction of infections a community imports from others based on how rapidly allele frequencies in the focal community converge to those in the donor communities. Applying this method to SARS-CoV-2 sequencing data from England and the United States, we uncover networks of intercommunity transmission that reflect geographical relationships while exposing significant long-range interactions. The scaling of importation rate with distance is consistent across both countries, yet weaker than expected based on mobility data, highlighting limitations of indirect inference. We show that transmission patterns can change between waves of variants of concern and analyze how the inferred heterogeneity in intercommunity transmission impacts evolutionary forecasts. While applied here to geographically defined communities, our approach could be applied to those defined by other traits (e.g., age, socioeconomic status), provided time-series data can be stratified accordingly. Overall, our study highlights population genomic time series data as a crucial record of epidemiological interactions, which can be deciphered using tree-free inference methods.

Okada, Takashi [Department of Physics; University ↗

NASA NTRS1995

The tip of the red giant branch as a distance indicator for resolved galaxies. 2: Computer simulations

Based on both empirical data for the nearby galaxies, and on computer simulations, we show that measuring the position of the tip of the first-ascent red-giant branch provides a means of obtaining the distances to nearby galaxies with a precision and accuracy comparable to using Cepheids and/or RR Lyrae variables. We present an analysis of synthetic I vs (V-I) color magnitude diagrams of Population 2 systems to investigate the use of the observed discontinuity in the I-band luminosity function as a primary distance indicator. In the simulations we quantify the effects (1) signal to noise, (2) crowding, (3) population size, and (4) non-giant-branch-star contamination, on the method adopted for detecting the discontinuity,, measuring its luminosity, and estimating its uncertainity. We discuss sources of systematic error in the context of observable parameters, such as the signal-to-noise ratio and/or surface brightness. The simulations are then scaled to observed color-magnitude diagrams. It is concluded, that from the ground the tip of the red-giant-branch method can be sucessfully used to determine distances accurate to +/- 10% for galaxies out to 3 Mpc (mu approximately 27.5 mag); and from space a factor of four further in distance (mu approximately 30.6 mag) can be reached using HST. This method can be applied whereever a metal-poor population (-2.0 less than Z less than -0.7) of red-giant stars is detected (whose age is in the range 7-17 Gyr), whether that population resides in the halo of a spiral galaxy, the extended outer disk of a dwarf irregular, or in the outer periphery of an elliptical galaxy.

Madore, Barry F.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Comprehensive stellar population models and the disentanglement of age and metallicity effects

The construction of detailed models for intermediate and old stellar populations is described. Input parameters include metallicity (-2 less than (Fe/H) less than 0.5), single-burst age (between 1.5 and 17 Gyr), and initial mass function (IMF) exponent. Quantities output include broadband magnitudes, spectral energy distributions, surface brightness fluctuation magnitudes, and a suite of 21 absorption feature indices. The models are checked against a wide variety of available observations. Examinations of model output yield the following conclusions. (1) If the percentage change delta age/delta Z approximately equals 3/2 for two populations, they will appear almost identical in most indices. A few indices break this degeneracy by being either more abundance sensitive (Fe4668, Fe5015, Fe5709, and Fe5782) or more age sensitive (G4300, H beta, and presumably higher order Balmer lines) than usual. (2) Present uncertainties in stellar evolution are of the same magnitude as the effects of IMF and Y in the indices studied. (3) Changes in abundance ratios (like (Mg/Fe)) are predicted to be readily apparent in the spectra of old stellar populations. (4) The I-band flux of a stellar population is predicted to be nearly independent of metallicity and only modestly sensitive to age. The I band is therefore recommended for standard candle work or studies of M/L in galaxies. Other conclusions stem from this work. (1) Intercomparison of models and observations of two TiO indices seem to indicate variation of the (V/Ti) ratio among galaxies, but it is not clear how this observation ties into the standard picture of chemical enrichment. (2) Current estimates of (Fe/H) for the most metal-rich globulars that are based on integrated indices are probably slightly too high. (3) Colors of population models from different authors exhibit a substantial range. At solar metallicity and 13 Gyr, this range corresponds to an age error of roughly +/- 7 Gyr. Model colors from different authors applied in a differential sense have smaller uncertainties. (4) In the present models the dominant error for colors is probably the transformation from stellar atmospheric parameters to stellar colors. (5) Stellar B - V is difficult to model, and current spreads among different authors can reach 0.2 mag. (6) If known defects in the stellar flux library are corrected, the population model colors of this work in passbands redder than U would be accurate to roughly 0.03 mag in an absolute sense. These corrections are not made in the tables of model output.

Worthey, Guy↗

DOE OSTI2024

The lifetime risk and impact of vitiligo across sociodemographic groups: a UK population-based cohort study

Abstract Background Vitiligo is an autoimmune skin disorder characterized by depigmented patches of skin, which can have significant psychological impacts. Objectives To estimate the lifetime incidence of vitiligo, overall, by ethnicity and across other sociodemographic subgroups, and to investigate the impacts of vitiligo on mental health, work and healthcare utilization. Methods Incident cases of vitiligo were identified in the Optimum Patient Care Database of primary care records in the UK between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2020. The lifetime incidence of vitiligo was estimated at age 80 years using modified time-to-event models with age as the timescale, overall and stratified by ethnicity, sex and deprivation. Depression, anxiety, sleep disturbance, healthcare utilization and work-related outcomes were assessed in the 2 years after vitiligo diagnosis and compared with matched controls without vitiligo. The study protocol for this retrospective observational study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT06097494). Results In total, 9460 adults and children were newly diagnosed with vitiligo during the study period. The overall cumulative lifetime incidence was 0.92% at 80 years of age [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.90–0.94]. Cumulative incidence was similar in female (0.94%, 95% CI 0.92–0.97) and male patients (0.89%, 95% CI 0.86–0.92). There were substantial differences in lifetime incidence across ethnic groups, listed by Office for National Statistics criteria [Asian 3.58% (95% CI 3.38–3.78); Black 2.18% (95% CI 1.85–2.50); Mixed/multiple 2.03% (95% CI 1.58–2.47); Other 1.05% (95% CI 0.94–1.17); and White 0.73% (95% CI 0.71–0.76)]. Compared with matched controls, people with vitiligo had an increased risk of depression [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.08, 95% CI 1.01–1.15]; anxiety (aOR 1.19, 95% CI 1.09–1.30); depression or anxiety (aOR 1.10, 95% CI 1.03–1.17); and sleep disturbance [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.15, 95% CI 1.02–1.31]. People with vitiligo also had a greater number of primary care encounters (adjusted incidence rate ratio 1.29, 95% CI 1.26–1.32) and a greater risk of time off work (aHR 1.15, 95% CI 1.06–1.24). There was little evidence of disparities in vitiligo-related impacts across ethnic subgroups. Conclusions Clinicians should be aware of the markedly increased incidence of vitiligo in people belonging to Asian, Black, Mixed/multiple and Other groups. The negative impact of vitiligo on mental health, work and healthcare utilization highlights the importance of monitoring people with vitiligo to identify those who need additional support.

Eleftheriadou, Viktoria↗

NASA NTRS2000

Theory and Design Tools For Studies of Reactions to Abrupt Changes in Noise Exposure

Study plans, a pre-tested questionnaire, a sample design evaluation tool, a community publicity monitoring plan, and a theoretical framework have been developed to support combined social/acoustical surveys of residents' reactions to an abrupt change in environmental noise, Secondary analyses of more than 20 previous surveys provide estimates of three parameters of a study simulation model; within individual variability, between study wave variability, and between neighborhood variability in response to community noise. The simulation model predicts the precision of the results from social surveys of reactions to noise, including changes in noise. When the study simulation model analyzed the population distribution, noise exposure environments and feasible noise measurement program at a proposed noise change survey site, it was concluded that the site could not yield sufficient precise estimates of human reaction model to justify conducting a survey. Additional secondary analyses determined that noise reactions are affected by the season of the social survey.

Fields, James M.↗

DOE OSTI2025

The DECam MAGIC Survey: Spectroscopic Follow-up of the Most Metal-poor Stars in the Distant Milky Way Halo *

In this work, we present high-resolution spectroscopic observations for six metal-poor stars with [Fe/H] < –3 (including one with [Fe/H] < –4), selected using narrowband Ca ii HK photometry from the DECam MAGIC Survey. The spectroscopic data confirm the accuracy of the photometric metallicities and allow for the determination of chemical abundances for 16 elements, from carbon to barium. The program stars have chemical abundances consistent with the [Fe/H] < –3 range. A kinematic/dynamical analysis suggests that all program stars belong to the distant Milky Way halo population (heliocentric distances 35 < d helio /kpc ≲ 55), including three with high-energy orbits that might have been associated with the Magellanic system and one, J0026−5445, having parameters consistent with being a member of the Sagittarius stream. The remaining two stars show kinematics consistent with the Gaia-Sausage/Enceladus dwarf galaxy merger. J0433−5548, with [Fe/H] = –4.12, is a carbon-enhanced ultra metal-poor star, with [C/Fe] = +1.73. This star is believed to be a bona fide second-generation star, and its chemical abundance pattern was compared with yields from metal-free supernova models. Results suggest that J0433−5548 could have been formed from a gas cloud enriched by a single supernova explosion from an ∼11 M ⊙ star in the early Universe. The successful identification of such objects demonstrates the reliability of photometric metallicity estimates, which can be used for target selection and statistical studies of faint targets in the Milky Way and its satellite population. These discoveries illustrate the power of measuring chemical abundances of metal-poor Milky Way halo stars to learn more about early galaxy formation and evolution.

CEMP stars↗

DOE OSTI2023

Measuring stellar populations, dust attenuation and ionized gas at kpc scales in 10010 nearby galaxies using the integral field spectroscopy from MaNGA

As one of the three major experiments of the fourth-generation Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS-IV), the Mapping Nearby Galaxies at Apatch Point Observatory (MaNGA) survey has obtained high-quality integral field spectroscopy (IFS) with a resolution of 1–2 kpc for ∼ 10 4 galaxies in the local universe during its six-year operation from July 2014 through August 2020. It is crucial to reliably measure the physical properties of the different components in each spectrum before one can use the data for any scientific study. In the past years we have made lots of efforts to develop a novel technique of full spectral fitting, which estimates a model-independent dust attenuation curve from each spectrum, thus allowing us to break the degeneracy between dust attenuation and stellar population properties when fitting the spectrum with stellar population synthesis models. We have applied our technique to the final data release of MaNGA, and obtained measurements of stellar population properties and emission line parameters, as well as the kinematics and dust attenuation of both stellar and ionized gas components. In this paper we describe our technique and the content and format of our data products. The whole dataset is publicly available in Science Data Bank with the link https://doi.org/10.57760/sciencedb.j00113.00088 .

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2022

Robust estimation of charge carrier diffusivity using transient photoluminescence microscopy

Transient microscopy has emerged as a powerful tool for imaging the diffusion of excitons and free charge carriers in optoelectronic materials. In many excitonic materials, extraction of diffusion coefficients can be simplified because of the linear relationship between signal intensity and local excited state population. However, in materials where transport is dominated by free charge carriers, extracting diffusivities accurately from multidimensional data is complicated by the nonlinear dependence of the measured signal on the local charge carrier density. To obtain accurate estimates of charge carrier diffusivity from transient microscopy data, statistically robust fitting algorithms coupled to efficient 3D numerical solvers that faithfully relate local carrier dynamics to raw experimental measurables are sometimes needed. Here, we provide a detailed numerical framework for modeling the spatiotemporal dynamics of free charge carriers in bulk semiconductors with significant solving speed reduction and for simulating the corresponding transient photoluminescence microscopy data. To demonstrate the utility of this approach, we apply a fitting algorithm using a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler to experimental data on bulk CdS and methylammonium lead bromide (MAPbBr 3 ) crystals. Parameter analyses reveal that transient photoluminescence microscopy can be used to obtain robust estimates of charge carrier diffusivities in optoelectronic materials of interest, but that other experimental approaches should be used for obtaining carrier recombination constants. Additionally, simplifications can be made to the fitting model depending on the experimental conditions and material systems studied. Our open-source simulation code and fitting algorithm are made freely available to the scientific community.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1994

The Uranian aurora and its relationship to the magnetosphere

About 32 h of Voyager Ultraviolet Spectrometer (UVS) observations of Uranus H2 band airglow emission (875 less than or equal to lambda less than or equal to 1115 A) have been analyzed using the singular value decomposition (SVD) approach to inversion, producing an intensity map showing aurora at both magnetic poles. An H Lyman alpha aurora may also be present but is difficult to separate from scattered solar and local interstellar medium components. SVD analysis of variance shows that the intensity estimate is significantly larger than the error estimate over both Uranographic poles and part of the equatorial region, fortuitously including both magnetic polar regions. The Goddard Space Flight Center Q(sub 3) magnetic field model correctly predicts that the aurora should be larger in area and emit more power at the weaker N magnetic pole than at the stronger S magnetic pole. However, the auroral emissions are quite localized in magnetic longitude and so do not form complete auroral ovals. The brightest auroral emission at each magnetic pole is confined to a range of approximately 90 deg of magnetic longitude centered on the magnetotail direction, at moderate magnetic L parameter (5 less than or equal to L less than or equal to 10), but some emission at each pole is distributed over a range of more than 180 deg of longitude. The magnetic longitudes of the aurora are completely inconsistent with the 'windshield wiper' effect for either ions or electrons, indicating that some other effect, such as rapid depletion of the population of precipitating particles of highly localized strong pitch-angle diffusion, may be acting to localize emission. The low apparent L of the precipitating particles indicates that their energies may be less than or equal to 10 keV. Hence magnetospheric convection is likely to be important, and thus particles exciting the aurora may not remain on constant L shells. The precipitating particles may be a relatively low-energy population at high L that is heated to aurora-exciting energy by adiabatic compression during convection to low L. We estimate that the total auroral power output at H Lyman alpha and shorter wavelengths is about 3 x 10(exp 9) to 7 x 10(exp 9) W, requiring about 10 times that much power for excitation.

Herbert, Floyd↗

NASA NTRS2010

Space Radiation Heart Disease Risk Estimates for Lunar and Mars Missions

The NASA Space Radiation Program performs research on the risks of late effects from space radiation for cancer, neurological disorders, cataracts, and heart disease. For mortality risks, an aggregate over all risks should be considered as well as projection of the life loss per radiation induced death. We report on a triple detriment life-table approach to combine cancer and heart disease risks. Epidemiology results show extensive heterogeneity between populations for distinct components of the overall heart disease risks including hypertension, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and cerebrovascular diseases. We report on an update to our previous heart disease estimates for Heart disease (ICD9 390-429) and Stroke (ICD9 430-438), and other sub-groups using recent meta-analysis results for various exposed radiation cohorts to low LET radiation. Results for multiplicative and additive risk transfer models are considered using baseline rates for US males and female. Uncertainty analysis indicated heart mortality risks as low as zero, assuming a threshold dose for deterministic effects, and projections approaching one-third of the overall cancer risk. Medan life-loss per death estimates were significantly less than that of solid cancer and leukemias. Critical research questions to improve risks estimates for heart disease are distinctions in mechanisms at high doses (>2 Gy) and low to moderate doses (<2 Gy), and data and basic understanding of radiation doserate and quality effects, and individual sensitivity.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗