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At least 685 records · Page 38

Machine learning and artificial intelligence for wildfire prediction

Wildfire ignition, intensity, and spread rates are tightly linked with water cycle extremes. The science of wildfire prediction has traditionally encompassed the use of physical and empirical models to quantify the direction and speed of fire spread, plume injection and fire-aerosol impacts on atmospheric composition, predictions of fire season severity on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) time scales, and assessment of the spatial and temporal patterns of fire risk across landscapes. Together with expanding observation networks, machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI) have the potential to revolutionize the application of such models for fire science, saving lives, protecting critical infrastructure, and providing more accurate estimates of wildfire-climate feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cross-Well Seismic Monitoring of CO 2 Injected Into the A-1 Carbonate and Brown Niagaran Formations at the Chester 16 Reef

The Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) was founded in 2003 as part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership initiative. Since its founding, MRCSP has made significant strides toward making CCUS a viable option for states in the region. The public/private consortium, funded through the DOE Regional Carbon Sequestration Initiative, brings together nearly 40 industry partners and 10 states. Battelle, as the project lead, oversees research, development and operations and coordinates activities among the partners. The incremental, phased approach has built a valuable knowledge base for the industry and paved the way for commercial-scale adoption of CCUS technologies. From 2008 to 2020, MRCSP Phase III focused on the development of large-scale injection projects. This report is part of a series of reports prepared under the Midwestern Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) Phase III (Development Phase). These reports summarize and detail the findings of the work conducted under the Phase III project. A cross-well seismic survey was acquired in the Chester 16 reef to attempt to locate 85,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) that were injected into the A-1 Carbonate and Brown Niagaran Formations earlier. The technique of conducting multiple cross-well seismic surveys over time, including a pre-CO 2 injection (baseline) survey, has been used elsewhere to monitor CO 2 injected into the subsurface. In this study, a baseline cross-well survey was not obtained; nevertheless, it was possible to generate an image that is a plausible representation of the CO 2 plume. This conclusion is supported by other monitoring and modeling results from the Chester 16 reef that provide an independent indication about the likely position of the injected CO 2 .

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Remote methane sensor for emissions from pipelines and compressor stations using chirped-laser dispersion spectroscopy

Leak rates of methane (CH 4 ) from the natural gas supply chain result in lost profit from unsold product, public safety and property concerns due to potential explosion hazards, and a potentially large source of economic damages from legal liabilities. Yet large measurement challenges exist in identifying and quantifying CH 4 leak rates along the vast number and type of components in the natural gas supply chain. This is particularly true of the “midstream” components involved in the gathering, processing, compression, transmission, and storage of natural gas. This project developed and deployed new advances in chirped laser dispersion spectroscopy (CLaDS) to detect methane leaks from pipelines, compressor stations, and other midstream infrastructure from a remote position (standoff detection). The system was deployed from a van to measure fugitive methane leaks from a local compressor station as a proof-of-concept. The technique was validated through mobile laboratory measurements with in-situ sensors as well as controlled releases of methane. The system also mapped a plume from a controlled release of methane by tracking a small unmanned aerial system (sUAS) that carried a corner cube retroreflector which reflected the beam back to the instrument. The drone-based system quantified a leak rate to within 30% of the actual rate and localized the emission location within 5 m of the actual release location at standoff distances of 25-45 m. This sUAS-reflector tracking approach has benefits for mapping leak locations remotely using small drones flying around a facility. Benefits of a commercial sensor with these capabilities include reductions of leaks for pipeline operators (more profit), earlier detection of leaks to avoid catastrophic explosion hazards for public health and to mitigate property damage, and reduced methane emissions to the atmosphere (improving air quality).

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Distribution of Infiltration in the 216-U-10, 216-B-3 Pond, and 216-T-4 Pond Systems 1944-1997

A modeling system to simulate fate and transport of contaminant plumes in groundwater beneath the Central Plateau to support the Cumulative Impact Evaluation (CIE) and Composite Analysis (CA) is being developed. The CIE will evaluate the cumulative effect of multiple Central Plateau radiological and chemical sources on groundwater quality. This will enable cleanup decisions to be evaluated in the context of all Central Plateau waste sites and existing groundwater conditions. The purpose of this Environmental Calculation File (ECF) is to partition the infiltration of wastewater and contaminant inventory between the main pond and each expansion lobe of the 216-B-3 Pond system, and to partition the infiltration of wastewater and contaminant inventory between the ditches and ponds of the 216-U-10 Pond and 216-T-4 Pond systems.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Hydrologic Evaluation of the Ringold Upper Mud Aquifer in the 100-H Area of the Hanford Site

Aquifer tests were recently performed in the Hanford Site 100-H Area to provide a hydrologic evaluation of the Ringold Formation member of Wooded Island – upper mud unit (RUM) aquifer to reduce uncertainty regarding its lateral continuity and characterize aquifer properties within the high-concentration portion of the RUM Cr(VI) plume. A constant-rate pumping test was performed in well 199-H3-22 in October 2019. Additionally, the hydraulic responses from pump and treat (P&T) shutdown events occurring in June, July, and October 2019 were analyzed for aquifer hydraulic properties.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Aquifer Injection Modeling (AIM) Toolbox User Guide

The Aquifer Injection Modeling Toolbox (“AIM Toolbox”) software was developed by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) to provide a collection of analytical solutions suitable for evaluating the potential extent of the area impacted by subsurface injection operations. Subsurface injection operations are regulated under the EPA’s Underground Injection Control (UIC) program and are typically related to oil/gas development, waste disposal, or subsurface mining or storage. The analytical algorithms provided in the AIM Toolbox each have different approaches/assumptions/focus with respect to the nature and processes in subsurface and the nature of the injection operations. Collectively the set of analysis algorithms provides a broader evaluation of the area that can potentially be impacted by an injection operation. By providing estimates for the injectate plume extent, the software supports technical aspects of planning, evaluation, and overseeing injection activities. That is, the results help assess when further regulatory controls (e.g., monitoring, reporting) may be required and, in the case of disposal into an underground source of drinking water, the extent of the impacted area would require exemption from protection under the Safe Drinking Water Act. The AIM Toolbox software is available as a single-page web application, providing an interface to provide the necessary inputs, and both chart and map panes for visualizing the results. This User Guide describes the AIM Toolbox software, information required, user interactions, and the underlying basis of the calculations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Literature Review of Documented Persistent Secondary Uranium Sources at DOE LM Sites

The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Legacy Management (LM) has the responsibility to protect human health and the environment at 101 legacy uranium sites across the nation by implementing long-term surveillance and maintenance requirements. Included in these responsibilities is to provide for the safe and environmentally sound disposal, long-term stabilization, and control of uranium mill tailings in a manner that minimizes or eliminates radiation health hazards to the public at 21 Uranium Mill Tailings Radiation Control Act (UMTRCA) Title I sites; 6 UMTRCA Title II sites; and 9 Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act/Resource Conservation and Recovery Act sites. These sites are former uranium mills (processing sites), or sites with wastes from processing sites encapsulated in engineered disposal cells (disposal sites), or sites where components of atomic weapons were manufactured. During site characterization, groundwater contamination was often discovered and evaluated or modeled for future movement with the inclusion of uranium sorption in the groundwater plume. Much of this original work did identify uranium processing wastes as the original contaminant source. However, more recent work has identified the existence and influence of persistent secondary uranium sources that may prevent uranium in groundwater from attenuating as quickly as initial evaluations or modeling indicated. By understanding these processes, better decisions can be made to choose the appropriate remediation and closure strategies, identify long-term surveillance and maintenance activities, and more accurately estimate life-cycle costs. The purpose of this report is to summarize the literature available on documented persistence secondary uranium sources at LM sites as part of the Applied Studies and Technology Persistent Secondary Contaminant Sources Project.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Validation and Comparison of HyRAM Physics Models

The Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models (HyRAM) software version 3 uses a real gas equation of state rather than the Abel-Noble equation of state that is used in 2.0 and previous versions. This change enables the use of HyRAM 3 for cryogenic hydrogen flows, whereas the Abel-Noble equation of state is not accurate at low temperatures. HyRAM 3.1 results were compared to experimental data from the literature in order to demonstrate the accuracy of the physics models. HyRAM 3.1 results were also compared to HyRAM 2.0 for high-pressure, non-cryogenic flows to highlight the differences in predictions between the two major versions of HyRAM. Validation data sets are from multiple groups and span the range of HyRAM physics models, including tank blowdown, unignited dispersion jet plume, ignited jet flame, and accumulation and overpressure inside an enclosure. Both versions 2.0 and 3.1 of HyRAM are accurate for predictions of blowdowns, diffusion jets, and diffusion flames of hydrogen at pressures up to 900 bar, and HyRAM 3.1 also shows good agreement with cryogenic hydrogen data. Overall, HyRAM 3.1 improves on the accuracy of the physical models relative to HyRAM 2.0. In most cases, this reduces the conservatism in risk calculations using HyRAM.

08 HYDROGEN↗

MACCS Theory Manual

This report describes the models of the MACCS computer code as presented in MACCS Version 3.10.0. The purpose of MACCS is to simulate the impact of severe accidents at nuclear power plants on the surrounding environment. MACCS has been developed by Sandia National Laboratories for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. From a given release of radioactive material into the atmosphere, MACCS estimates the extent and magnitude of radiological contamination, offsite doses, protective actions, socioeconomic impacts and costs, and health effects. Since the weather at the time of an accident is not predictable, MACCS supports various sampling options to run a representative set of simulations to evaluate weather variability. MACCS simulates atmospheric transport with a straight-line Gaussian plume segment model. From the estimated air and ground concentrations, MACCS models dose projections through several dose exposure pathways. These exposures can be offset by protective actions during the emergency response and long-term recovery of the accident. MACCS users directly specify the evacuation and sheltering area, while other protective actions (e.g., relocation, farmland restrictions, decontamination) are based on user-specified dose or concentration limits. While protective actions help reduce dose accumulation, they also cause social and economic impacts. MACCS models the extent of displaced individuals and land contamination, and the cost of offsite property damage, economic disruptions, and various accident expenditures caused by protective actions. Finally, from the dose accumulation, MACCS estimates early and stochastic health effects according to dose-response models. The purpose of consequence analyses is to be able to understand and estimate the impact of nuclear accidents. Consequence analysis is an essential tool to inform determinations of adequate protection of the public, to understand nuclear power hazards, to measure the value of regulations, and to help us appreciate the importance of nuclear safety. As such, MACCS has a variety of regulatory uses including environmental analyses (10 CFR 51.53, 52.47), regulatory cost-benefit analyses, backfit analyses (10 CFR 50.109), consequence analysis studies such as SOARCA (NUREG-1935), Level 3 PRA studies, and risk-informing of emergency planning (10 CFR 50 App. E and 50.47). This report updates the previous MACCS theory manual (NUREG/CR-4691 Vol. 2; Chanin, Sprung, Ritchie, & Jow, 1990) and accompanies the MACCS User's Guide (SAND-2021-1588) that describes the use and input requirements of the graphical user interface of MACCS known as WinMACCS. The MACCS User's Guide is also a reference guide that describes data input file formats, describes various software components in the MACCS code suite, and provides a set of example tutorials for running WinMACCS. Also, soon to be published is a MACCS input parameter guidance report (NUREG/CR-7270) that provides technical bases for commonly used MACCS input values. This page left blank

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

SECARB Post Injection Assessment Report

The Southern States Energy Board (SSEB) managed the overall Southeast Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (SECARB) Phase III project and The Bureau of Economic Geology (BEG), at the University of Texas at Austin, managed all activities associated with the Early Test field site near Cranfield, Mississippi (the Early Test or Cranfield Project). The SECARB project at Cranfield was focused downdip of the oil rim and on demonstrating the stacked nature of the storage potential at this location: enhanced oil recovery (EOR) up-dip and saline downdip. Because the injection for EOR continued after the SECARB project ended, no actual post-injection period occurred. However, information collected during the SECARB-monitored injection period, including pressure and CO2 plume position, was utilized in an EOR carbon lifecycle assessment. The carbon lifecycle assessment provided insight on tracking injection fronts and production efficiencies across the field. To complete the post injection assessment, taking into account the continuing EOR period after closeout of SECARB field activities, this report provides data and analysis done under another DOE-funded project. The follow up project focused on the carbon lifecycle of EOR and included an assessment of EOR at as-operated and under possible future scenarios. This work was published by Hossieni et al. (2018) and Hosseininoosheri (2019).

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

NRAP-Open-IAM: FutureGen2 Component Models

This report describes the development and testing of three component models for NRAP-Open-IAM, the National Risk Assessment Partnership’s open-source integrated assessment model. The FutureGen2 Lookup Table Reservoir component model is based on interpolation of data from a set of lookup tables. The lookup tables contain pressures and saturations predicted by multiphase flow simulations performed with a reservoir simulator. The FutureGen2 Above Zone Monitoring Interval (AZMI) component is a surrogate model that can be used to estimate the impact that carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and brine leaks from the CO 2 storage reservoir at the FutureGen 2.0 site might have had on overlying aquifers or monitoring units were a leak to occur. The model estimates the size of “impact plumes” according to five metrics: pH, Total Dissolved Solids (TDS), pressure, dissolved CO 2 and temperature. The FutureGen2 Aquifer component is similar, but is limited to four metrics: pH, Total Dissolved Solids (TDS), pressure, and dissolved CO 2 . The input parameters for each model are the same, but the Aquifer component is applicable to depths between 100 m and 700 m and the AZMI component is applicable from depths between 700 m and 1050 m.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Studies of Alternative Ventilation Configurations to Mitigate Airborne Exposure Risks in Office Spaces

The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of alternative ventilation configurations on airflow patterns and potential exposure risks in office spaces. Two existing conference rooms at Sandia NM were modeled using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations to characterize airflow patterns and potential airborne exposure risks in well-mixed and once-through (through-flow) ventilation conditions. Multiple scenarios were studied to evaluate the impact of occupancy, Plexiglass barriers, and a modified-return airflow configuration. Experimental and visualization tests were also conducted to validate the well-mixed and through-flow models and findings. The simulations demonstrated that the modified-return airflow configuration that promoted through-flow conditions reduced pathogen concentrations within the space compared to the well-mixed airflow configuration; occupancy reduction only reduced the number of exposed individuals, and Plexiglass barriers had almost no effect. The experimentally measured air speeds at nine anemometer locations generally matched the simulated airflow velocities, and a fog-purge visualization test was also consistent with simulated results of plume movement and dissipation. The visualization tests demonstrated improvements in air change rate with the modified return, which promoted through-flow conditions, versus the original well-mixed ventilation configuration. The results of this study demonstrate that minor modifications to a space that promote through-flow conditions can improve air quality and reduce pathogen concentrations. Additional airflow modeling and testing of alternative occupied space configurations are recommended to further inform room designs that mitigate airborne exposure risks for occupants.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Raman Spectroscopy to Detect and Measure NOW Pheromones. Annual Report [Jan 2021]

Insect sex pheromones are chemical compounds that insects release to attract their partners over distances of hundreds of meters or even kilometers, in complete darkness and without any audible signals. Use of synthetic forms of key compounds have in some cases become an essential component of monitoring and/or managing key pests of agricultural crops, including navel orangeworm (Amyelois transitella) (NOW) in California tree nuts. These pheromone-based strategies can include monitoring, mating disruption, mass trapping, attract-and-kill and push-pull. There are currently multiple commercially available mating disruption products available for NOW and recent studies have demonstrated that they can be effectively used to reduce crop damage by this pest. Just how mating disruption works is not fully established and likely varies across products and target species. For instance, the extent to which synthetic pheromones compete with natural pheromone is not well understood, or in the case of monitoring, how efficaciously the insect follows the diffusing plumes, especially across large blocks and at plot borders. Furthermore, there may be specific conditions under which poor or impeded diffusion of synthetic pheromone diminishes the disruption effect, which could result in some males effectively locating females for reproduction. At the same time, many commercially available synthetic lures are also available, and growers have been effectively using them to track population development – although the attractive range of these lures remains unclear. That is, while pheromone lures can attract many moths, the relationship between trap capture and local populations, much less crop damage, remains unclear.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Raman Spectroscopy to Detect and Measure NOW Pheromones. Annual Report [2021]

Insect sex pheromones are chemical compounds that insects release to attract mates over distances of hundreds of meters or even kilometers, in complete darkness and without any audible signals. Use of synthetic forms of key compounds have in some cases become an essential component of monitoring and/or managing key pests of agricultural crops, including navel orangeworm (Amyelois transitella) (NOW) in California tree nuts There are currently multiple commercially available mating disruption products available for NOW and recent studies have demonstrated that they can be effectively used to reduce crop damage. How mating disruption works is not fully established and likely varies across products and target species. For instance, it is not well understood how synthetic pheromones compete with natural pheromones and, in the case of monitoring, how efficaciously the insect follows the diffusing plumes and how those evolve from emission points, especially across large blocks and at plot borders. We proposed to evaluate the use of enhanced Raman spectroscopy for the detection of synthetic and natural NOW pheromones and, were that to be successful, use it in subsequent years to measure pheromone diffusion in orchards.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Raman Spectroscopy to Detect and Measure NOW Pheromones. Annual Report [Dec 2021]

Insect sex pheromones are chemical compounds that insects release to attract mates over distances of hundreds of meters or even kilometers, in complete darkness and without any audible signals. Use of synthetic forms of key compounds have in some cases become an essential component of monitoring and/or managing key pests of agricultural crops, including navel orangeworm (Amyelois transitella) (NOW) in California tree nuts There are currently multiple commercially available mating disruption products available for NOW and recent studies have demonstrated that they can be effectively used to reduce crop damage. How mating disruption works is not fully established and likely varies across products and target species. For instance, it is not well understood how synthetic pheromones compete with natural pheromones and, in the case of monitoring, how efficaciously the insect follows the diffusing plumes and how those evolve from emission points, especially across large blocks and at plot borders. We proposed to evaluate the use of enhanced Raman spectroscopy for the detection of synthetic and natural NOW pheromones and, were that to be successful, use it in subsequent years to measure pheromone diffusion in orchards.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Raman Spectroscopy to Detect and Measure NOW Pheromones

Insect sex pheromones are chemical compounds that insects release to attract mates over distances of hundreds of meters or even kilometers, in complete darkness and without any audible signals. Use of synthetic forms of key compounds have in some cases become an essential component of monitoring and/or managing key pests of agricultural crops, including navel orangeworm (Amyelois transitella) (NOW) in California tree nuts. There are currently multiple commercially available mating disruption products available for NOW and recent studies have demonstrated that they can effectively help reducing crop damage. How mating disruption works is not fully established and likely varies across products and target species. For instance, it is not well understood how synthetic pheromones compete with natural ones and, in the case of monitoring, how efficaciously the insect follows the diffusing plumes and how those evolve from emission points, especially across large blocks and at plot borders.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Raman Spectroscopy to Detect and Measure NOW Pheromones ("Orchard in a box")

Insect sex pheromones are chemical compounds that insects release to attract mates over distances of hundreds of meters or even kilometers, in complete darkness and without any audible signals. Use of synthetic forms of key compounds have in some cases become an essential component of monitoring and/or managing key pests of agricultural crops, including navel orangeworm (Amyelois transitella) (NOW) in California tree nuts. There are currently multiple commercially available mating disruption products available for NOW and recent studies have demonstrated that they can be effectively used to reduce crop damage. How mating disruption works is not fully established and likely varies across products and target species. For instance, it is not well understood how synthetic pheromones compete with natural pheromones and, in the case of monitoring, how efficaciously the insect follows the diffusing plumes, especially across large blocks and at plot borders. Whether an aerosol puffer is used for mating disruption or lure for monitoring population development, we currently lack the ability to fully understand how these synthetic pheromone compounds diffuse away from their point-source of emission – and subsequently how this might affect the efficacy of mating disruption and/or the accuracy of monitoring efforts. In response to these unknowns, Raman spectroscopy may offer a way to detect synthetic pheromone because of its analytical properties and recent technological advancements. In combination with nanostructured probes, RS has demonstrated the capability to detect volatiles at extremely low concentrations. We proposed to evaluate the use of Raman for the detection of synthetic and natural NOW pheromones and, were that to be successful, use this tool in subsequent years to measure pheromone diffusion in orchards.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Advancing Enhanced Raman Spectroscopy to Detect and Measure NOW Pheromones (CPRB 2022 proposal)

Insect sex pheromones are chemical compounds that insects release to attract their partners over distances of hundreds of meters or even kilometers, in complete darkness and without any audible signals. Use of synthetic forms of key compounds have in some cases become an essential component of monitoring and/or managing key pests of agricultural crops, including navel orangeworm (Amyelois transitella) (NOW) in California tree nuts. These pheromone-based strategies can include monitoring, mating disruption, mass trapping, attract-and-kill and push-pull. There are currently multiple commercially available mating disruption products available for NOW and recent studies have demonstrated that they can be effectively used to reduce crop damage by this pest. Just how mating disruption works is not fully established and likely varies across products and target species. For instance, the extent to which synthetic pheromones compete with natural pheromone is not well understood, or in the case of monitoring, how efficaciously the insect follows the diffusing plumes, especially across large blocks and at plot borders. Furthermore, there may be specific conditions under which poor or impeded diffusion of synthetic pheromone diminishes the disruption effect, which could result in some males effectively locating females for reproduction. At the same time, many commercially available synthetic lures are also available, and growers have been effectively using them to track population development – although the attractive range of these lures remains unclear. That is, while pheromone lures can attract many moths, the relationship between trap capture and local populations, much less crop damage, remains unclear. Regardless of the emission source (aerosol puffers, meso emitters, lures etc.), we currently lack the ability to fully understand how these synthetic pheromone compounds diffuse away from their point-source of emission – and subsequently how this might affect the efficacy of mating disruption and/or the accuracy of monitoring efforts. Raman spectroscopy (RS) may offer a means to detect synthetic pheromone because of its analytical properties and recent technological advancements. In combination with nanostructured probes, RS has a demonstrated capability to detect volatiles at extremely low concentrations. While other methods for detecting pheromones have proven to be successful, such analytical methods like mass spectrometry (MS) gas chromatography (GC) require sampling in the fields and are not real-time. Other methods such as EAG/ EAD are also invasive (use antennas) but are of course valuable. Opto-electronic, micro and nano sensors just recently enticed interest. We fall in this latter category, proposing the use of optical spectroscopy (Raman) in a fiber aided by nanostructures to provide a chemical fingerprint without transductions and in real-time (i.e. no sampling). To date, we have been able to generate Raman signatures for the main chemicals in synthetic pheromones (a first for science, to the best of our knowledge), observe their trends at different concentrations, and also provide a clear distinction of such signatures in mixed samples via Principal Component Analysis (PCA) – all of which strengthens our conclusions on the ability of RS to detect emissions in more realistic conditions. We also established processes to enhance the detection sensitivity via preconcentration with Solid Phase Micro Extraction (SPME) fibers and Surface Enhanced Raman Spectroscopy (SERS) to increase the overall optical signals. Furthermore, we explored limitations and requirements for detecting from dispensers, lures, or live moths, including Dept. of Energy and CA State regulatory approvals. Finally, we setup some of our first “orchard in a box” experiments to measure pheromone diffusion along with developing appropriate models.

42 ENGINEERING↗