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At least 685 records · Page 38

Stanford/NASA-Ames Center of Excellence in model-based human performance

The human operator plays a critical role in many aeronautic and astronautic missions. The Stanford/NASA-Ames Center of Excellence in Model-Based Human Performance (COE) was initiated in 1985 to further our understanding of the performance capabilities and performance limits of the human component of aeronautic and astronautic projects. Support from the COE is devoted to those areas of experimental and theoretical work designed to summarize and explain human performance by developing computable performance models. The ultimate goal is to make these computable models available to other scientists for use in design and evaluation of aeronautic and astronautic instrumentation. Within vision science, two topics have received particular attention. First, researchers did extensive work analyzing the human ability to recognize object color relatively independent of the spectral power distribution of the ambient lighting (color constancy). The COE has supported a number of research papers in this area, as well as the development of a substantial data base of surface reflectance functions, ambient illumination functions, and an associated software package for rendering and analyzing image data with respect to these spectral functions. Second, the COE supported new empirical studies on the problem of selecting colors for visual display equipment to enhance human performance in discrimination and recognition tasks.

Wandell, Brian A.↗

KU-Band rendezvous radar performance computer simulation model

The preparation of a real time computer simulation model of the KU band rendezvous radar to be integrated into the shuttle mission simulator (SMS), the shuttle engineering simulator (SES), and the shuttle avionics integration laboratory (SAIL) simulator is described. To meet crew training requirements a radar tracking performance model, and a target modeling method were developed. The parent simulation/radar simulation interface requirements, and the method selected to model target scattering properties, including an application of this method to the SPAS spacecraft are described. The radar search and acquisition mode performance model and the radar track mode signal processor model are examined and analyzed. The angle, angle rate, range, and range rate tracking loops are also discussed.

Griffin, J. W.↗

An automated and portable method for selecting an optimal GPU frequency

Power consumption poses a significant challenge in current and emerging graphics processing unit (GPU) enabled high-performance computing systems. In modern GPUs, dynamic voltage frequency scaling (DVFS) appears to be a reliable control to regulate power consumption and performance. However, the DVFS design space is large - hence, brute-force approaches are infeasible to select the optimal frequency. Furthermore, no single frequency can be universally optimal for applications with varying computational intensities. Thus, the application's complexity and the availability of a wide range of frequency settings are a challenge in selecting the optimal frequency configuration for a given GPU workload. To that end, this paper proposes a systematic approach that consists of three steps. The feature characterization study identifies the fine-grain GPU utilization metrics that influence the power consumption and execution time of a given workload. To understand the performance, power, and energy consumption behaviors of a workload across GPU's DVFS design space, we derived analytical power and performance models using the identified fine-grain features. Here, it is shown that the same set of GPU utilization metrics can estimate both the power consumption and execution time while being agnostic of changes to frequency and input sizes. Applying a power control with the single objective of reducing power may cause performance degradation, leading to more energy consumption. A multi-objective approach is proposed to select the optimal GPU DVFS configuration for a workload that reduces power consumption with negligible degradation in performance. The evaluation was conducted using SPEC ACCEL benchmarks and three real applications - NAMD LAMMPS, and LSTM on NVIDIA GV100, GA100, and AMD MI210 GPUs. On average, real applications showed 29.6% energy savings with a performance loss of 5.2% on GA100 and 22.6% energy savings with a performance loss of 4.7% on GV100. Moreover, the proposed models are portable to real applications, GPU architectures, and vendors, and require metric collection at only the default frequency rather than all supported DVFS configurations. Additionally, we conducted a comparison between our models and the GPU assembly instructions (PTX)-based static models. The results revealed a significant reduction in the average error rates, with a decrease from 19.7% to 3.1% for power models and from 29.4% to 5.2% for performance models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Quantifying the robustness of deep multispectral segmentation models against natural perturbations and data poisoning

In overhead image segmentation tasks, including additional spectral bands beyond the traditional RGB channels can improve model performance. However, it is still unclear how incorporating this additional data impacts model robustness to adversarial attacks and natural perturbations. For adversarial robustness, the additional in-formation could improve the model’s ability to distinguish malicious inputs, or simply provide new attack avenues and vulnerabilities. For natural perturbations, the additional information could better inform model decisions and weaken perturbation effects or have no significant influence at all. In this work, we seek to characterize the performance and robustness of a multispectral (RGB and near infrared) image segmentation model subjected to adversarial attacks and natural perturbations. While existing adversarial and natural robustness research has focused primarily on digital perturbations, we prioritize on creating realistic perturbations designed with physical world conditions in mind. For adversarial robustness, we focus on data poisoning attacks whereas for natural robustness, we focus on extending ImageNet-C common corruptions for fog and snow that coherently and self-consistently perturbs the input data. Overall, we find both RGB and multispectral models are vulnerable to data poisoning attacks regardless of input or fusion architectures and that while physically-realizable natural perturbations still degrade model performance, the impact differs based on fusion architecture and input data.

Deep learning, multispectral images, multimodal fu↗

Modeled Retrofit Package Performance for Schools

This report details modeled energy performance and savings from retrofit packages in prototypical school buildings in climate zones throughout the U.S. The information herein serves as a reference for elementary and secondary schools interested in implementing retrofit packages in their facilities for energy savings as well as health and safety benefits. School models developed for simulating package performance differentiated between rural and urban environments. Simulations were run for 10 distinct climate zones covering a range of climate conditions throughout the U.S. Results include savings estimates for electricity, natural gas, CO 2 emissions, and annual utility costs for nine different retrofit packages that combine energy conservation measures, including HVAC controls and equipment upgrades, lighting efficiency upgrades, and electrification technologies such as heat pumps for space conditioning and domestic hot water. Nine additional retrofit packages were also developed for elementary schools and modeled in two climate zones. Appendix B describes the additional retrofit packages and presents savings estimates.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Single Model Characterization

A characterization framework has been developed, demonstrated and deployed for the quantification and categorization of all losses from Nominal Energy to Energy Delivered for operational photovoltaic power plants. Of equal importance is that the same characterization methods can be applied to a priori model outputs. Placing measured and modeled performance data in a single model framework allows a full quantitative, apples to apples, comparison of actual and expected performance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Inductive Pulsed Plasma Thruster Model with Time-Evolution of Energy and State Properties

A model for pulsed inductive plasma acceleration is presented that consists of a set of circuit equations coupled to both a one-dimensional equation of motion and an equation governing the partitioning of energy. The latter two equations are obtained for the plasma current sheet by treating it as a single element of finite volume and integrating the governing equations over that volume. The integrated terms are replaced where necessary by physically-equivalent quantities that are calculated through the solution of other parts of the governing equation set. The model improves upon previous one-dimensional performance models by permitting the time-evolution of the energy and state properties of the plasma, the latter allowing for the tailoring of the model to different gases that may be chosen as propellants. The time evolution of the various energy modes in the system and the associated plasma properties, calculated for argon propellant, are presented to demonstrate the efficacy of the model. The model produces a result where efficiency is maximized at a given value of the electrodynamic scaling term known as the dynamic impedance parameter. Qualitatively and quantitatively, the model compares favorably with performance measured for two separate inductive pulsed plasma thrusters, with disagreements attributable to simplifying assumptions employed in the generation of the model solution.

Polzin, Kurt A.↗

Using SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture to Constrain MOD16 Evapotranspiration over the Contiguous USA

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a key hydrologic variable linking the Earth’s water, carbon and energy cycles. At large spatial scales, remote sensing-based (RS) models are often used to quantify ET. Despite the large number of RS ET models available, few include soil moisture as a key environmental input, which can degrade model accuracy and utility. Here, we use model assimilation enhanced soil moisture estimates from the NASA SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) mission as a water supply control in the MOD16 ET algorithm framework. SMAP-derived daily surface (0-5cm depth) and root zone (0-1m depth) soil moisture are used with MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) vegetation observations, and 4km gridded regional surface meteorology (Gridmet) as primary inputs for estimating daily ET and underlying model soil and stomatal conductance terms. We calibrated the model environmental response parameters using tower eddy covariance ET observations representing major North American biomes. The model ET results were validated using a holdout set of tower observations spanning a large regional climate gradient. The updated ET estimates outperform the baseline MOD16 product across all tower validation sites (RMSE = 0.758 vs 1.108 mm day-1; R2 = 0.68 vs0.45, respectively). Smaller relative improvements were obtained using a recalibrated model with 4km Gridmet meteorology, but no soil moisture control (RMSE = 0.813 mm day-1; R2 = 0.66), indicating that these changes are essential for the improved model performance. The soil moisture-constrained model improvements and relative benefits from the SMAP observations are greater in arid climates, consistent with stronger soil moisture control on ET in water-limited regions. The use of SMAP soil moisture as an additional model constraint improves MOD16 regional performance and provides a new framework for investigating both soil and atmosphere controls on ET.

SMAP↗

Uncertainty-Guided Prediction Horizon of Phase-Resolved Ocean Wave Forecasting Under Data Sparsity: Experimental and Numerical Evaluation

Accurate short-term wave forecasting is critical for the safe and efficient operation of marine structures that rely on real-time, phase-resolved ocean wave information for control and monitoring purposes (e.g., digital twins). These systems often depend on environmental sensors (e.g., waverider buoys, wave-sensing LIDAR). Challenges arise when upstream sensor data are missing, sparse, or phase-shifted due to drift. This study investigates the performance of two machine learning models, time-series dense encoder (TiDE) and long short-term memory (LSTM), for forecasting phase-resolved ocean surface elevations under varying degrees of data degradation. We introduce the τ-trimming algorithm, which adapts the prediction horizon based on uncertainty thresholds derived from historical forecasts. Numerical wave tank (NWT) and wave basin experiments are used to benchmark model performance under short- and long-term data masking, spatially coarse sensor grids, and upstream phase shifts. Results show under a 50% probability of upstream data loss, the τ-trimmed TiDE model achieves a 46% reduction in error at the most upstream target, compared to 22% for LSTM. Furthermore, phase misalignment in upstream data introduces a near-linear increase in forecast error. Under moderate model settings, a ±3 s misalignment increases the mean absolute error by approximately 0.5 m, while the same error is accumulated at ±4 s using the more conservative approach. These findings inform the design of resilient, uncertainty-aware wave forecasting systems suited for realistic offshore sensing environments.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Cold flow testing of the Space Shuttle Main Engine high pressure fuel turbine model

In order to experimentally determine the performance of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) High Pressure Fuel Turbopump (HPFTP) turbine, a 'cold' air flow turbine test program was established at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center. As part of this test program, a baseline test of Rocketdyne's HPFTP turbine has been completed. The turbine performance and turbine diagnostics such as airfoil surface static pressure distributions, static pressure drops through the turbine, and exit swirl angles were investigated at the turbine design point, over its operating range, and at extreme off-design points. The data was compared to pretest predictions with good results. The test data has been used to improve meanline prediction codes and is now being used to validate various three-dimensional codes. The data will also be scaled to engine conditions and used to improve the SSME steady-state performance model.

Hudson, Susan T.↗

Assessment of Machine Learning for Ultrasonic Nondestructive Evaluation of Alkali–Silica Reaction in Concrete

Alkali–silica reaction (ASR) is a type of material degradation in concrete structures that leads to concrete cracking and rebar corrosion, thereby reducing the material’s structural integrity and the overall structure’s lifetime and raising safety concerns. Ultrasonic nondestructive evaluation (NDE) has been proven to be a valuable technique for assessing concrete properties and monitoring ASR progression in concrete. However, the deployment and analysis of ultrasonic NDE and its data requires specialized expertise, often relying on the engineer’s subjective interpretation. With the surge in computational power, artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) algorithms have become popular in automating NDE data analysis. Various industrial sectors are increasingly adopting ML algorithms for NDE data analysis with a growing emphasis on AI–assisted automation. Regulatory agencies are also preparing for this technological shift, anticipating corresponding revisions in standards. Thus, there is an urgent need to identify the capabilities and limitations of current ML technologies for the evaluation of concrete material properties and damage status. Furthermore, the effects of various factors on ML model performance must be thoroughly investigated. The study summarized herein evaluated the effectiveness of two ML models (i.e., support vector regression (SVR) and deep neural network (DNN)) in predicting concrete material damage induced by ASR based on the long-term ultrasonic monitoring data. Four distinct concrete specimens were cast with artificially induced ASR, and over a period exceeding 500 days, ultrasonic signals and expansion data were continuously collected. For the SVR model, wave velocity and 12 other wave features were extracted from the ultrasonic signals, with 6 out of 13 features selected as input for the model. Different combinations of training and testing datasets were designed to explore factors influencing prediction performance, including the range of data within training and testing sets, in addition to various signal preprocessing methodologies. These findings suggest the importance of using a training dataset with a broader data range compared with testing datasets for improved model performance alongside consistent signal preprocessing across datasets.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Machine Learning Modeling for Accelerated Battery Materials Design in the Small Data Regime

Abstract Machine learning (ML)‐based approaches to battery design are relatively new but demonstrate significant promise for accelerating the timeline for new materials discovery, process optimization, and cell lifetime prediction. Battery modeling represents an interesting and unconventional application area for ML, as datasets are often small but some degree of physical understanding of the underlying processes may exist. This review article provides discussion and analysis of several important and increasingly common questions: how ML‐based battery modeling works, how much data are required, how to judge model performance, and recommendations for building models in the small data regime. This article begins with an introduction to ML in general, highlighting several important concepts for small data applications. Previous ionic conductivity modeling efforts are discussed in depth as a case study to illustrate these modeling concepts. Finally, an overview of modeling efforts in major areas of battery design is provided and several areas for promising future efforts are identified, within the context of typical small data constraints.

Sendek, Austin D.↗

Simulation of Continental Shallow Cumulus Populations Using an Observation-Constrained Cloud-System Resolving Model

Continental shallow cumulus (ShCu) clouds observed on 30 August 2016 during the Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols, and Land-Ecosystems (HI-SCALE) field campaign are simulated by using an observation-constrained cloud-system resolving model. On this day, ShCu forms over Oklahoma and southern Kansas and some of these clouds transition to deeper, precipitating convection during the afternoon. We apply a four-dimensional ensemble-variational (4DEnVar) hybrid technique in the Community Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system to assimilate operational data sets and unique boundary layer measurements including a Raman lidar, radar wind profilers, radiosondes, and surface stations collected by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) atmospheric observatory into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to ascertain how improved environmental conditions can influence forecasts of ShCu populations and the transition to deeper convection. Independent observations from aircraft, satellite, as well as ARM's remote sensors are used to evaluate model performance in different aspects. Several model experiments are conducted to identify the impact of data assimilation (DA) on the prediction of clouds evolution. The analyses indicate that ShCu populations are more accurately reproduced after DA in terms of cloud initiation time and cloud base height, which can be attributed to an improved representation of the ambient meteorological conditions and the convective boundary layer. Extending the assimilation to 18 UTC (local noon) also improved the simulation of shallow-to-deep transitions of convective clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The DOE E3SM Model Version 2: Overview of the Physical Model and Initial Model Evaluation

Abstract This work documents version two of the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). E3SMv2 is a significant evolution from its predecessor E3SMv1, resulting in a model that is nearly twice as fast and with a simulated climate that is improved in many metrics. We describe the physical climate model in its lower horizontal resolution configuration consisting of 110 km atmosphere, 165 km land, 0.5° river routing model, and an ocean and sea ice with mesh spacing varying between 60 km in the mid‐latitudes and 30 km at the equator and poles. The model performance is evaluated with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 Diagnosis, Evaluation, and Characterization of Klima simulations augmented with historical simulations as well as simulations to evaluate impacts of different forcing agents. The simulated climate has many realistic features of the climate system, with notable improvements in clouds and precipitation compared to E3SMv1. E3SMv1 suffered from an excessively high equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of 5.3 K. In E3SMv2, ECS is reduced to 4.0 K which is now within the plausible range based on a recent World Climate Research Program assessment. However, a number of important biases remain including a weak Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, deficiencies in the characteristics and spectral distribution of tropical atmospheric variability, and a significant underestimation of the observed warming in the second half of the historical period. An analysis of single‐forcing simulations indicates that correcting the historical temperature bias would require a substantial reduction in the magnitude of the aerosol‐related forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Physics informed neural network can retrieve rate and state friction parameters from acoustic monitoring of laboratory stick-slip experiments

Various machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) techniques have been recently applied to the forecasting of laboratory earthquakes from friction experiments. The magnitude and timing of shear failures in stick-slip cycles are predicted using features extracted from the recorded ultrasonic or acoustic emission (AE) signals. In addition, the Rate and State Friction (RSF) constitutive laws are extensively used to model the frictional behavior of faults. In this work, we use data from shear experiments coupled with passive acoustic (variance, kurtosis, and AE rate) interleaved with active source ultrasonic monitoring (transmitted wave amplitude) to develop physics-informed neural network (PINN) models incorporating the RSF law and AE rate generation equation with wave amplitude serving as a proxy for friction state variable. This PINN framework allows learning RSF parameters from stick-slip experiments rather than measuring them through a series of velocity step experiments. We observe that when the stick-slip cycles are irregular, the PINN models outperform the data-driven DL models. Transfer learning (TL) PINN models are also developed by pre-training on data collected at one normal stress level followed by forecasting shear failures and retrieving RSF parameters at other stress levels (i.e., with different recurrence intervals) after retraining on a limited amount of new data. Our findings suggest that TL models perform better compared to standalone models. Both standalone and TL PINN-estimated RSF parameters and their ground truth values show excellent agreements thus demonstrating that RSF parameters can be retrieved from laboratory stick-slip experiments using the corresponding acoustic data and that the transmitted wave amplitude provides a good representation of the evolving frictional state during stick-slips.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

FEW questions, many answers: using machine learning to assess how students connect food–energy–water (FEW) concepts

There is growing support and interest in postsecondary interdisciplinary environmental education which integrate concepts and disciplines in addition to providing varied perspectives. There is a need to assess student learning in these programs as well as rigorous evaluation of educational practices, especially of complex synthesis concepts. This work tests a text classification machine learning model as a tool to assess student systems thinking capabilities using two questions anchored by the Food-Energy-Water (FEW) Nexus phenomena by answering two questions (1) Can machine learning models be used to identify instructor-determined important concepts in student responses? (2) What do college students know about the interconnections between food, energy and water, and how have students assimilated systems thinking into their constructed responses about FEW? Reported here are a broad range of model performances across 26 text classification models associated with two different assessment items, with model accuracy ranging from 0.755 to 0.992. Expert-like responses were infrequent in our dataset compared to responses providing simpler, incomplete explanations of the systems presented in the question. For those students moving from describing individual effects to multiple effects, their reasoning about the mechanism behind the system indicates advanced systems thinking ability. Specifically, students exhibit higher expertise for explaining changing water usage than discussing tradeoffs for such changing usage. This research represents one of the first attempts to assess the links between foundational, discipline-specific concepts and systems thinking ability. These text classification approaches to scoring student FEW Nexus Constructed Responses (CR) indicate how these approaches can be used, in addition to several future research priorities for interdisciplinary, practice-based education research. Development of further complex question items using machine learning would allow evaluation of the relationship between foundational concept understanding and integration of those concepts as well as more nuanced understanding of student comprehension of complex interdisciplinary concepts.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

A Comparison of Interface Growth Models Applied to Rayleigh–Taylor and Richtmyer–Meshkov Instabilities

Sophisticated numerical models that contain fluid interfaces rely upon interface evolution models to approximate the transition to turbulence near interfaces, in the presence of Rayleigh–Taylor (RTI) or Richtmyer–Meshkov (RMI) instability. Semi-analytical models have been developed in recent decades to predict the interface growth from an initial state into the nonlinear regime. Two of these models are considered in this study. They are the Goncharov and the z-models. Both of these interface models have strengths and weaknesses, which are examined here. Both of them have been implemented in the xRAGE compressible flow solver, which models fluid interfaces. The flow solver provides the fluids acceleration as a body force to the interface model. The purpose of such interface model is to evolve the early times of interface position as a subgrid model within a compressible flow simulation in order to then initialize a turbulence model. In this work, the interface models are assessed and compared for their evolution of RTI and RMI. The z-model performed better than the Goncharov model for all cases that were explored.

42 ENGINEERING↗