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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Subtask 1.4 - Techno-Economic Assessment of Regional Carbon Utilization Scenarios and Attendant Monitoring Technology

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Carbon Storage Program seeks to develop technologies to significantly improve the effectiveness of carbon capture and storage (CCS), reduce the cost of implementation, and support the readiness of widespread commercial deployment by 2035. To accomplish this goal, technical and economic barriers must be addressed and the results used to inform regulators and industry on the safety, permanence, and viability of carbon storage. To help overcome these barriers, the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) conducted three activities: 1) investigate the regional techno-economic life cycle of CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) in North Dakota, 2) assist DOE in determining the prospective CO2 storage resource of residual oil zones (ROZs), and 3) develop a seismic technique for monitoring geologic storage of CO2. These three activities address two strategic goals enumerated in the DOE–EERC Cooperative Agreement, namely, 1) to advance foundational science and 2) to inform data-driven policies that enhance U.S. economic growth and job creation, energy security, and environmental quality. Activity 1 In North Dakota, there is synergistic incentive to develop and implement CO2 EOR technologies. Regional industry partners are actively seeking options that can cost-effectively improve the efficiency of power production, while also coproducing CO2 for use in EOR applications. A full-value-chain techno-economic assessment that links lignite resources, power generation, and EOR is needed to determine the implications for a state or region to continue to use these resources or look elsewhere for other energy sources and revenue streams. The integration of North Dakota’s lignite power industry with the state’s oil industry has the potential to revitalize legacy oil fields and produce up to 1 billion barrels of additional oil using CO2 EOR while providing a market for a CO2 commodity captured at coal-fired power plants. Revitalization of North Dakota’s legacy oil fields will bring new industry investment to the state, resulting in the growth of oil-related jobs and revenue through oil sales, severance tax, and associated oilfield development activities (drilling, pipelines, etc.). CO2 demand for EOR and incremental oil production were calculated for 201 conventional oil fields in North Dakota. Infrastructure development in the fields was estimated using 1) a traditional vertical well arrangement of CO2 injectors and oil producers and 2) an advanced case where horizontal wells were used exclusively. Pipeline, compression, and recycling infrastructure requirements were also estimated. When viewed from the CO2 capture and CO2 EOR sectors, the advanced case showed a positive investment scenario when including potential benefits of the 45Q tax credit policy. An economic evaluation of a full implementation of CO2 EOR showed an average $60 billion potential state economic impact estimated over the 37-year construction and production time frame could be realized with an assumed oil price of $65/bbl. Oil price ranges of $35–$90/bbl cause an estimated variation of ±$5 billion over the potential effort. The total net state government revenues were estimated over the 37-year construction and production time frame. With an assumed oil price of $65/bbl, total potential fiscal impact could average $7.4 billion. This result ranges about ±$2.5 billion for a potential EOR implementation effort for oil price ranges of $35–$90/bbl. This broad-brush assessment was focused on “magnitude-of-effect” perspectives of what CO2 capture and use for EOR could mean to the state. Whether CO2 EOR ever becomes widely adopted is not the issue at this stage of evaluation. The question being answered is, How valuable could CO2 capture and CO2 EOR be for the state and local jurisdictions in western North Dakota? The results of the current economic assessment remove any ambiguity to that question. Full implementation of CO2 EOR as modeled in this study provides substantial economic benefits to the state, even at low oil prices (i.e., $35/bbl). Job creation and government revenues could be substantial, depending on the scale of implementation. With a better understanding of what CO2 EOR might mean for the state’s economy, the focus can now shift to the policies and financial mechanisms needed to make private investment in CO2 capture and use as EOR competitive with other energy-related pursuits. Activity 2 ROZs contain remnants of oil not swept away by natural waterflooding. Although nearly all of the identified ROZs are found in West Texas, there is evidence that this category of oil reservoir can be found in other major oil-producing basins of the United States. Because the formation of these oil reservoirs is distinct from other conventional reservoirs, the method to estimate the prospective CO2 storage resource in ROZs may be equally distinct from the method used for conventional fields. As such, the EERC collaborated with DOE’s National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) to investigate the feasibility of CO2 storage in ROZs and determine what specific modification (if any) needs to be made to the current DOE volumetric method to estimate prospective CO2 storage resource in oil reservoirs. This activity built on a previous EERC investigation to identify ROZs in the Williston and Powder River Basins and upon collaborations between the EERC and NETL to develop storage resource estimation methods for different types of geologic CO2 storage. Review of the volumetric approach raised questions about the applicability of such an approach to hydrocarbon-bearing zones without the inclusion of potential hydrocarbon production. A production-based approach was presented by the EERC to inform the working group of additional methods of increasing the CO2 storage resource potential. Because the production-based method focuses more heavily on oil recovery than CO2 storage, it was not included in the working group manuscript. Activity 3 The EERC has used sparse and irregular seismic arrays to detect CO2 injected into a reservoir. The variability of seismic noise recorded by the sensors directly impacts the seismic interpretation. However, designing noise attenuation workflows effectively can be a more challenging task using sparse and irregular arrays for data acquisition. Based on the hypothesis that noncoherent noise is stationary during weekly data acquisition, a new machine-learning algorithm was developed to automatically estimate noise conditions using passive records, noise from active records, and ancillary information. The new noise attenuation processing workflow can improve the time-lapse detection of CO2 from sparse and irregular array acquisitions. Results show spatial and temporal noise patterns can be related to the location of the sensors and the weather conditions during the data acquisition and that our attenuation processing workflow can improve the time-lapse detection of CO2 from sparse and irregular array acquisitions. This effort was funded in part through the EERC–DOE Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233. Nonfederal funding was provided by the North Dakota Department of Commerce.

Peck, Wesly↗
DOE OSTI2020

Market Segmentation Analysis of Medium and Heavy Duty Trucks with a Fuel Cell Emphasis

The medium- and heavy-duty transportation sector is experiencing rapid changes in powertrain technology innovation with recent announcements of battery electric and fuel cell electric trucks being offered. However, the economics of these alternative powertrain vehicles are uncertain and difficult to compare directly. This analysis seeks to bridge the gap of techno-economic analyses for these alternative powertrain vehicles by comparing all of them within the same analytic framework. Specifically, this report evaluates the total cost of ownership (TCO) of six different truck powertrain technologies (diesel, diesel hybrid-electric, plug-in hybrid electric, compressed natural gas, battery electric, and fuel cell electric) for three different truck vocations (Class 8 long haul [750 mile range], Class 8 short haul [300 mile range], and Class 4 parcel delivery), for different Department of Energy technology statuses (2018, 2025, and Ultimate). The TCO framework includes direct costs (purchase price, fuel, operating and maintenance), indirect costs (dwell time costs due to refueling/recharging and payload opportunity costs from forgone revenue due to the truck being weight-limited), but excludes general operation costs (driver wages and benefits, insurance, tire replacements, permits, tolls) that are assumed to be the same across powertrains. The TCO was evaluated for four scenarios that reflect typical business operating conditions. The TCO analysis results highlight that each powertrain technology may have an economic advantage on a TCO basis in certain business operating conditions and depending on fuel price realized. For Class 8 long haul trucks when payload opportunity costs are not incurred, battery electric and fuel cell electric powertrains could be cost competitive with diesel if the 2025 targets are achieved and fuel prices are low. If payload opportunity costs are incurred, battery electric powertrains are not estimated to reach TCO parity with diesel even if Ultimate targets and low electricity prices are realized, indicating a need for significant vehicle lightweighting. In Class 8 short haul commercial applications when payload opportunity costs are not incurred, battery electric, fuel cell electric, and compressed natural gas vehicle powertrains have very competitive TCOs with diesel if the 2025 targets are achieved. In Class 8 short haul commercial applications when payload opportunity costs are incurred, the battery electric vehicle powertrains can achieve TCO parity with diesel only if the Ultimate battery prices are met ($80/kWh). In Class 4 parcel delivery truck operating scenarios where there are no dwell time costs incurred, the plug-in hybrid electric vehicle, battery electric vehicle, and fuel cell electric vehicle could be cost-competitive with diesel and compressed natural gas with current (2018) technology performance and costs. In general, the payload opportunity costs can be a significant driver to TCO for the Class 8 long and short haul commercial vehicle applications while the dwell time costs could be a major TCO cost driver for the Class 4 parcel delivery vehicle if the business scenario realizes those costs.

advanced powertrains↗
DOE OSTI2021

Opportunities to Enable Electrolytic H2 Projects for Ammonia in the United States

Integration of large-scale electrolysis with the grid provides value to hydrogen and ammonia markets as well as the electricity system. Electrolysis has the potential to provide an alternative source of low-cost hydrogen by utilizing low-price electricity that may have limited availability, resulting in possible economic benefits for ammonia production. The use of that low-price electricity can simultaneously benefit the grid by reducing the price suppression that may occur with increased penetration of variable renewable generation. In addition, the rapid-response characteristics of electrolyzers enables them to provide ancillary services to the grid, such as operating reserves and frequency control. However, electrolyzer capital cost reductions, favorable electricity pricing structures, or other technology or market advancements are likely needed to achieve hydrogen prices competitive with incumbent production technologies. We discuss near-term, niche prospects where low-cost electrolytic hydrogen and ammonia could be produced, possible applications for those products, and further opportunities and drivers that might enable them.

39 EE - Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies (EE-3F↗
DOE OSTI2016

Base-load high-temperature reactors with variable electricity to the grid using Brayton cycles to match low-carbon electricity markets - 18622

The electricity markets are changing because of (1) the transition to a low-carbon electricity grid and (2) addition of solar and wind. The large-scale addition of wind or solar results in low-electricity prices at times of high wind or solar output. It also results in higher electricity prices at times of low wind and solar input. This changing market in the United States favors natural gas plants with low capital costs and high operating costs where it is economic to shut down the gas turbine at times of low electricity prices. Such markets are less favorable to base-load nuclear plants. The change in the markets requires rethinking high-temperature reactor (HTR) power systems to enable base-load reactor operations with variable electricity to the grid. Base-load reactor operation is required to minimize costs but electricity output to the grid must be maximized at times of high prices to maximize total revenue. This can be accomplished by HTR open or closed Brayton power cycles coupled to high-temperature heat storage systems such as Firebrick Resistance-Heated Energy Storage (FIRES) or using auxiliary natural gas if coupled to an open Brayton power cycle. The temperature limits of HTRs are far below gas turbine temperature limits. This characteristic allows the power cycle to operate at base-load on nuclear heat with the option of added peak power by increasing compressed gas temperatures after nuclear heating but before the power turbine with other heat sources (natural gas, FIRES). For the case we have studied, the incremental heat to electricity efficiency is above 66%. The high efficiency is because it is a thermodynamic topping cycle. Because incremental heat-to-electricity efficiency is greater than a stand-alone natural gas plant (60%), such plants can directly compete against natural gas. At times of low electricity prices, electricity from the HTR and purchased from the grid is used to charge FIRES that can provide high-temperature heat as a substitute for natural gas for peak electricity production. Such nuclear Brayton cycles can replace fossil fuels in providing variable electricity on demand to the grid. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Research Highlight - Dispatch Optimization, System Design and Cost Benefit Analysis of a Nuclear Reactor with Molten Salt Thermal Storage

We highlight our work from our previous publication titled "Dispatch Optimization, System Design, and Cost Benefit Analysis of a Nuclear Reactor with Molten Salt Thermal Storage" published in MDPI Energies 2022 (doi.org/10.3390/en15103599). Variable renewable energy availability has increased the volatility in energy prices in most markets. Nuclear power plants, with a large ratio of capital to variable costs, have historically operated as base load energy suppliers but the need for more flexible operation is increasing. We simulate the techno-economic performance of a 950 MWt nuclear power plant, based on the Westinghouse lead-cooled fast reactor, coupled with molten salt thermal storage as a method for flexible energy dispatch. We use the System Advisor Model to model the nuclear reactor thermal power input and power cycle operating modes. We combine this robust engineering model with a mixed-integer linear program model for optimized dispatch scheduling. We then simulate the coupled nuclear and thermal storage system under different market scenarios with varying price volatility. We find that the coupled plant outperforms the base plant under markets where energy price peaks fluctuate by a factor of two or more about the mean price. We show that a calculated power purchase agreement price for the plant improves by up to 10% when operating under California energy market conditions. Sensitivity analysis on the thermal storage cost shows that the optimal design remains unchanged even when doubling costs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Decentralized Market Mechanism for Energy Communities under Operating Envelopes

Here, we propose an operating envelopes (OEs) aware energy community market mechanism that dynamically charges/rewards its members based on two-part pricing. The OEs are imposed exogenously by a regulated distribution system operator (DSO) on the energy community's revenue meter and is subject to a generalized net energy metering (NEM) tariff design. By formulating the interaction of the community operator and its members as a Stackelberg game, we show that the proposed two-part pricing achieves a Nash equilibrium and maximizes the community's social welfare in a decentralized fashion while ensuring that the community's operation abides by the OEs. The market mechanism conforms with the cost-causation principle and guarantees community members a surplus level no less than their maximum surplus when they autonomously face the DSO. The dynamic and uniform community price is a monotonically decreasing function of the community's aggregate renewable generation. We also analyze the impact of exogenous parameters such as NEM rates and OEs on the value of joining the community. Lastly, through numerical studies, we showcase the community's welfare, and pricing, and compare its members' surplus to customers under the DSO's regime.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Will Consumers Really Pay for Green Electricity? Comparing Stated and Revealed Preferences for Residential Programs in the United States

Public support is growing for policy initiatives to spur a transition from a fossil to renewable energy portfolio in the electricity sector. Some utilities in the United States offer programs that allow consumers to voluntarily pay premiums (0.1-7.0 cents/kWh) for electricity from renewable sources. However, it is unclear whether public support translates to paying for green electricity if given the option. Our analysis employs data from two national, longitudinal surveys on energy attitudes and willingness to pay for renewables to investigate whether environmental concerns and stated preferences for renewable energy translate to consumer behavior as measured through ratepayer participation in voluntary utility renewable energy programs known as utility green pricing. We find higher green pricing program participation rates in areas where consumers have stronger feelings about the environmental impacts of energy. Consumers in high-participation areas also have a higher stated willingness to pay for renewable energy, on average, than consumers in low-participation areas. We also find income, homeownership, and home value explain some of the difference between high- and low-participation programs. Further, program participation is lower in areas where utilities charge higher green pricing program premiums. These findings suggest that green power programs - such as utility green pricing - offer a market-based mechanism for consumers to realize their desire to purchase renewable energy. Policymakers may use these results to support further expansion of green power programs in areas where customers currently lack accessible and affordable options to act on their environmental beliefs and concerns.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Who Did the Ethanol Tax Credit Benefit? An Event Analysis of Subsidy Incidence

At the end of 2011, the Volumetric Ethanol Excise Tax Credit (VEETC), which had subsidized the blending of ethanol in gasoline, was allowed to expire. During its tenure, the subsidy was the subject of intense scrutiny concerning who benefited from its existence. Using commodity price data, we estimate the subsidy incidence accruing to corn farmers, ethanol producers, gasoline blenders, and gasoline consumers around the time of expiration. Our empirical approach contributes methodologically to the event studies literature by analyzing futures contract prices (as opposed to spot prices) when possible. Ultimately, we find compelling evidence that, at the date of VEETC expiration, ethanol producers captured about 25 cents of the 45 cents subsidy per gallon of ethanol blended. We find suggestive, albeit inconclusive, evidence that a portion of this benefit (about 5 cents per gallon) was passed further upstream from ethanol producers to corn farmers. Most of the remainder seems most likely to have been captured by the blenders themselves. On the petroleum side, we find no evidence that oil refiners captured any part of the subsidy. We also find no evidence that the subsidy was passed downstream to gasoline consumers in the form of lower gasoline prices.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2014

Composting, anaerobic digestion and biochar production in Ghana. Environmental–economic assessment in the context of voluntary carbon markets

Highlights: • Economic–environmental assessment of combining composting with biogas and biochar in Ghana. • These technologies can save greenhouse gas emissions for up to 0.57 t CO{sub 2} eq/t of waste treated. • Labor intensive, small-scale organic waste management is not viable without financial support. • Carbon markets would make these technologies viable with carbon prices in the range of 30–84 EUR/t. - Abstract: In some areas of Sub-Saharan Africa appropriate organic waste management technology could address development issues such as soil degradation, unemployment and energy scarcity, while at the same time reducing emissions of greenhouse gases. This paper investigates the role that carbon markets could have in facilitating the implementation of composting, anaerobic digestion and biochar production, in the city of Tamale, in the North of Ghana. Through a life cycle assessment of implementation scenarios for low-tech, small scale variants of the above mentioned three technologies, the potential contribution they could give to climate change mitigation was assessed. Furthermore an economic assessment was carried out to study their viability and the impact thereon of accessing carbon markets. It was found that substantial climate benefits can be achieved by avoiding landfilling of organic waste, producing electricity and substituting the use of chemical fertilizer. Biochar production could result in a net carbon sequestration. These technologies were however found not to be economically viable without external subsidies, and access to carbon markets at the considered carbon price of 7 EUR/ton of carbon would not change the situation significantly. Carbon markets could help the realization of the considered composting and anaerobic digestion systems only if the carbon price will rise above 75–84 EUR/t of carbon (respectively for anaerobic digestion and composting). Biochar production could achieve large climate benefits and, if approved as a land based climate mitigation mechanism in carbon markets, it would become economically viable at the lower carbon price of 30 EUR/t of carbon.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Scenarios of Global Municipal Water-Use Demand Projections over the 21st Century

This paper establishes three future projections of global municipal water use to the end of the 21st century: A reference business-as usual (BAU) scenario, a High Technological Improvement (High Tech) scenario and a Low Technological Improvement (Low Tech) scenario. A global municipal water demand model is constructed using global water use statistics at the country-scale, calibrated to the base year of 2005, and simulated to the end of the 21st century. Since the constructed water demand model hinges on socioeconomic variables (population, income), water price, and end-use technology and efficiency improvement rates, projections of those input variables are adopted to characterize the uncertainty in future water demand estimates. The water demand model is linked to the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a global change integrated assessment model. Under the reference scenario, the global total water withdrawal increases from 466 km3/year in 2005 to 941 km3/year in 2100,while withdrawals in the high and low tech scenarios are 321 km3/ year and 2000 km3/ year, respectively. This wide range (321-2000 km3/ year) indicates the level of uncertainty associated with such projections. The simulated global municipal demand projections are most sensitive to population and income projections, then to end-use technology and efficiency projections, and finally to water price. Thus, using water price alone as a policy measure to reduce municipal water use may substantiate the share of municipal water price of people’s annual incomes.

climate policy↗
DOE OSTI2024

Market Implications of Alternative Operating Reserve Modeling in Wholesale Electricity Markets

Pricing and settlement mechanisms are crucial for efficient resource allocation, investment incentives, market competition, and regulatory oversight. In the United States, Regional Transmission Operators (RTOs) adopts a uniform pricing scheme that hinges on the marginal costs of supplying additional electricity. This study investigates the pricing and settlement impacts of alternative reserve constraint modeling, highlighting how even slight variations in the modeling of constraints can drastically alter market clearing prices, reserve quantities, and revenue outcomes. Focusing on the diverse market designs and assumptions in ancillary services by U.S. RTOs, particularly in relation to capacity sharing and reserve substitutions, the research examines four distinct models that combine these elements based on a large-scale synthetic power system test data. Our study provides a critical insight into the economic implications and the underlying factors of these alternative reserve constraints through market simulations and data analysis.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Optimal Demand Response Incorporating Distribution LMP with PV Generation Uncertainty

The utilization of aggregated demand-side flexibility via demand response (DR) has become a promising pathway for the integration of renewable energy resources in power systems. Nowadays, there are several management strategies for DR such as the price-based transactive control strategies. However, many of such existing price-based control strategies neglect the physics and operational constraints of the underlying distribution networks when computing the price, raising concerns regarding their theoretical and practical values. This paper studies this issue and investigates optimal DR (ODR) by incorporating the distribution locational marginal price (DLMP). In particular, we discuss DR in connection with DLMPs and propose a multiperiod bilevel optimization problem to find the ODR strategy. Here, the objective is to minimize the peak load, load fluctuation, and payments of load aggregators. In addition, a robust bilevel ODR model is formulated to provide a robust ODR strategy while minimizing operating costs under the worst-case realization of uncertainties; this mitigates the impact of forecasting errors on renewable energy resources. Then, we propose an efficient solution approach by employing the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions and strong duality. Simulation results are presented to illustrate the mutual impacts of the interaction between DR and DLMP and the benefits of the robust ODR strategy.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2013

Identifying Supply and Demand Elasticities of Agricultural Commodities: Implications for the US Ethanol Mandate

We present a new framework to identify supply elasticities of storable commodities where past shocks are used as exogenous price shifters. In the agricultural context, past yield shocks change inventory levels and futures prices of agricultural commodities. We use our estimated elasticities to evaluate the impact of the 2009 Renewable Fuel Standard on commodity prices, quantities, and food consumers' surplus for the four basic staples: corn, rice, soybeans, and wheat. Prices increase 20 percent if one-third of commodities used to produce ethanol are recycled as feedstock, with a positively skewed 95 percent confidence interval that ranges from 14 to 35 percent.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2011

Renewable Energy Requirements for Future Building Codes: Options for Compliance

As the model energy codes are improved to reach efficiency levels 50 percent greater than current codes, use of on-site renewable energy generation is likely to become a code requirement. This requirement will be needed because traditional mechanisms for code improvement, including envelope, mechanical and lighting, have been pressed to the end of reasonable limits. Research has been conducted to determine the mechanism for implementing this requirement (Kaufman 2011). Kaufmann et al. determined that the most appropriate way to structure an on-site renewable requirement for commercial buildings is to define the requirement in terms of an installed power density per unit of roof area. This provides a mechanism that is suitable for the installation of photovoltaic (PV) systems on future buildings to offset electricity and reduce the total building energy load. Kaufmann et al. suggested that an appropriate maximum for the requirement in the commercial sector would be 4 W/ft 2 of roof area or 0.5 W/ft 2 of conditioned floor area. As with all code requirements, there must be an alternative compliance path for buildings that may not reasonably meet the renewables requirement. This might include conditions like shading (which makes rooftop PV arrays less effective), unusual architecture, undesirable roof pitch, unsuitable building orientation, or other issues. In the short term, alternative compliance paths including high performance mechanical equipment, dramatic envelope changes, or controls changes may be feasible. These options may be less expensive than many renewable systems, which will require careful balance of energy measures when setting the code requirement levels. As the stringency of the code continues to increase however, efficiency trade-offs will be maximized, requiring alternative compliance options to be focused solely on renewable electricity trade-offs or equivalent programs. One alternate compliance path includes purchase of Renewable Energy Credits (RECs). Each REC represents a specified amount of renewable electricity production and provides an offset of environmental externalities associated with non-renewable electricity production. The purpose of this paper is to explore the possible issues with RECs and comparable alternative compliance options. Existing codes have been examined to determine energy equivalence between the energy generation requirement and the RECs alternative over the life of the building. The price equivalence of the requirement and the alternative are determined to consider the economic drivers for a market decision. This research includes case studies that review how the few existing codes have incorporated RECs and some of the issues inherent with REC markets. Section 1 of the report reviews compliance options including RECs, green energy purchase programs, shared solar agreements and leases, and other options. Section 2 provides detailed case studies on codes that include RECs and community based alternative compliance methods. The methods the existing code requirements structure alternative compliance options like RECs are the focus of the case studies. Section 3 explores the possible structure of the renewable energy generation requirement in the context of energy and price equivalence. The price of RECs have shown high variation by market and over time which makes it critical to for code language to be updated frequently for a renewable energy generation requirement or the requirement will not remain price-equivalent over time. Section 4 of the report provides a maximum case estimate for impact to the PV market and the REC market based on the Kaufmann et al. proposed requirement levels. If all new buildings in the commercial sector complied with the requirement to install rooftop PV arrays, nearly 4,700 MW of solar would be installed in 2012, a major increase from EIA estimates of 640 MW of solar generation capacity installed in 2009. The residential sector could contribute roughly an additional 2,300 MW based on the same code requirement levels of 4 W/ft 2 of roof area. Section 5 of the report provides a basic framework for draft code language recommendations based on the analysis of the alternative compliance levels.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating the Breakeven Cost of Delivered Electricity to Charge Class 8 Electric Tractors

As vehicle electrification expands from the light-duty sector to include larger commercial medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, businesses need to decide if electrification is appropriate for their fleets. A key factor in this decision will be the total cost of ownership for on-road electric Class 8 tractors compared to their combustion counterparts. This report examines the breakeven price of electricity for electric Class 8 tractor charging to address its importance in the total cost of ownership for the operation of an electrified fleet and to account for the inherent differences of higher-power charging. To understand the likely cost of delivered energy--in this report the breakeven price--to charge electric tractors, this study followed an analysis framework that considers a wide range of factors to estimate the breakeven price to charge at various station types. This requires an estimation of electric vehicle adoption trajectories and analysis of real-world fleet data to assess energy needs of heavy-duty electric tractors and to determine expected charging station demand over time. Station demand informs the level of electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) deployment that is necessary at each station type, as well as the site utilization and anticipated load profiles. Then, by accounting for a wide range of capital investments, operating costs, and other expenses, a breakeven price of energy is determined.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Revenue Analysis for Energy Storage Systems in the United States

In this work we evaluate the potential revenue from energy storage using historical electricity prices, forward-looking projections of hourly electricity prices, and actual reported revenue. This analysis examines the impact of storage characteristics, specifically duration and round-trip efficiency, as well as locational elements of storage revenue within the current and projected U.S. power system. Figure ES-1 illustrates the revenue for a 1 MW storage system in seven market regions with durations range from 1 hour to 12 hours using both historical and forward-looking price data. The historical analysis covers more than 500 price nodes for each market region, while the forward-looking analysis includes balancing areas under different 10 scenarios of the electricity generation mix. The results indicate that the revenues consistently increase with duration, though the marginal value declines as duration grows. Moreover, the range of revenue depends on the system's operational location, and the electricity generation mix changes for future years. This range also widens with increased durations. In addition, the sensitivity analysis of round-trip efficiency reveals that as efficiency improves, system revenue increases, though the value of better round-trip efficiency declines as at higher efficiency levels.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data-Driven Probabilistic Anomaly Detection for Electricity Market under Cyber Attacks

Information and communication technologies have been widely used in smart grid for efficient operation. However, these technologies are vulnerable to malicious cyber attacks, which may lead to severe reliability and economic issues. Recently, a variety of data-driven anomaly detection approaches have been explored to detect potential cyber attacks in smart grids. In this paper, we researched on the electricity market data aiming to identify anomalies from the locational marginal prices (LMPs) and provide a new indicator for potential cyber attacks in power grids. Specifically, a novel data-driven probabilistic anomaly detection framework is proposed for electricity market, which consists of three major components: long short-term memory (LSTM) based deterministic electricity price forecasting, probabilistic electricity price forecasting and anomaly detection. This framework is tested on a model-based electricity market simulator under two types of cyber attacks, i.e., load redistribution attack (LRA) and price responsive attack (PRA). Numerical results on the simulated LMPs show that the proposed framework is capable of detecting data anomalies over these attacks.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

The value of wake steering wind farm flow control in US energy markets

Abstract. Wind farm flow control represents a category of control strategies for achieving wind-plant-level objectives, such as increasing wind plant power production and/or reducing structural loads, by mitigating the impact of wake interactions between wind turbines. Wake steering is a wind farm flow control technology in which specific turbines are misaligned with the wind to deflect their wakes away from downstream turbines, thus increasing overall wind plant power production. In addition to promising results from simulation studies, wake steering has been shown to successfully increase energy production through several recent field trials. However, to better understand the benefits of wind farm flow control strategies such as wake steering, the value of the additional energy to the electrical grid should be evaluated – for example, by considering the price of electricity when the additional energy is produced. In this study, we investigate the potential for wake steering to increase the value of wind plant energy production by combining model predictions of power gains using the FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) engineering wind farm flow control tool with historical electricity price data for 15 existing US wind plants in four different electricity market regions. Specifically, for each wind plant, we use FLORIS to estimate power gains from wake steering for a time series of hourly wind speeds and wind directions spanning the years 2018–2020, obtained from the ERA5 reanalysis dataset. The modeled power gains are then correlated with hourly electricity prices for the nearest transmission node. Through this process we find that wake steering increases annual energy production (AEP) between 0.4 % and 1.7 %, depending on the wind plant, with average increases in potential annual revenue (i.e., annual revenue of production, ARP) 4 % higher than the AEP gains. For most wind plants, ARP gain was found to exceed AEP gain. But the ratio between ARP gain and AEP gain is greater for wind plants in regions with high wind penetration because electricity prices tend to be relatively higher during periods with below-rated wind plant power production, when wake losses occur and wake steering is active; for wind plants in the Southwest Power Pool – the region with the highest wind penetration analyzed (31 %) – the increase in ARP from wake steering is 11 % higher than the AEP gain. Consequently, we expect the value of wake steering, and other types of wind farm flow control, to increase as wind penetration continues to grow.

17 WIND ENERGY↗