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NASA NTRS1979

The use of satellite estimates of rainfall in the initialization of a mesoscale hurricane model

The use of rainfall rate data obtained from satellites to improve the initial specification of the hurricane circulation is discussed with particular reference to the techniques for incorporating rainfall data into high-resolution hurricane models. The variation of latent heating in a numerical model of a steady state tropical cyclone is considered to ascertain what features of the storm motion can be deduced from a given field of latent heat release. A real-data example involving a mesoscale model for hurricane Eloise (1975) has demonstrated that satellite measurements of rainfall may be beneficial to numerical hurricane prediction.

Fiorino, M.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Recent Upgrades to NASA SPoRT Initialization Datasets for the Environmental Modeling System

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed several products for its National Weather Service (NWS) partners that can initialize specific fields for local model runs within the NOAA/NWS Science and Training Resource Center (STRC) Environmental Modeling System (EMS). In last year's NWA abstract on this topic, the suite of SPoRT products supported in the STRC EMS was presented, which includes a Sea Surface Temperature (SST) composite, a Great Lakes sea-ice extent, a Green Vegetation Fraction (GVF) composite, and NASA Land Information System (LIS) gridded output. This abstract and companion presentation describes recent upgrades made to the SST and GVF composites, as well as the real-time LIS runs. The Great Lakes sea-ice product is unchanged from 2011. The SPoRT SST composite product has been expanded geographically and as a result, the resolution has been coarsened from 1 km to 2 km to accommodate the larger domain. The expanded domain covers much of the northern hemisphere from eastern Asia to western Europe (0 N to 80 N latitude and 150 E to 10 E longitude). In addition, the NESDIS POES-GOES product was added to fill in gaps caused by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) being unable to sense in cloudy regions, replacing the recently-lost Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS with negligible change to product fidelity. The SST product now runs twice per day for Terra and Aqua combined data collections from 0000 to 1200 UTC and from 1200 to 0000 UTC, with valid analysis times at 0600 and 1800 UTC. The twice-daily compositing technique reduces the overall latency of the previous version while still representing the diurnal cycle characteristics. The SST composites are available at approximately four hours after the end of each collection period (i.e. 1600 UTC for the nighttime analysis and 0400 UTC for the daytime analysis). The real-time MODIS GVF composite has only received minor updates in the past year. The domain was expanded slightly to extend further west, north, and east to improve coverage over parts of southern Canada. Minor adjustments were also made to the manner in which GVF is calculated from the distribution of maximum Normalized Difference Vegetation Index from MODIS. The presentation will highlight some examples of the substantial inter-annual change in GVF that occurred from 2010 to 2011 in the U.S. Southern Plains as a result of the summer 2011 drought, and the early vegetation green up across the eastern U.S. due to the very warm conditions in March 2012. Finally, the SPoRT LIS runs the operational Noah land surface model (LSM) in real time over much of the eastern half of the CONUS. The Noah LSM is continually cycled in real time, uncoupled to any model, and driven by operational atmospheric analyses over a long-term, multi-year integration. The LIS-Noah provides the STRC EMS with high-resolution (3 km) LSM initialization data that are in equilibrium with the operational analysis forcing. The Noah LSM within the SPoRT LIS has been upgraded from version 2.7.1 to version 3.2, which has improved look-up table attributes for several land surface quantities. The surface albedo field is now being adjusted based on the input real-time MODIS GVF, thereby improving the net radiation. Also, the LIS-Noah now uses the newer MODIS-based land use classification scheme (i.e. the International Biosphere-Geosphere Programme [IGBP]) that has a better depiction of urban corridors in areas where urban sprawl has occurred. STRC EMS users interested in initializing their LSM fields with high-resolution SPoRT LIS data should set up their model domain with the MODIS-IGBP 20-class land use database and select Noah as the LSM.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Initial Development of a new RELAP5-35 Model of HTTF

Previous validation studies of RELAP5-3D against HTTF data demonstrated an ability to reproduce trends in temperature but an inability to reproduce the transient temperature rise. This is hypothesized to be the result of modeling decisions made when the initial RELAP5-3D model was develop prior to the experiments. To test this hypothesis, a new RELAP5-3D model is being developed. This presentation shows results from full power steady-state and in a pressurized conduction cooldown accident using the new model and compares them to results from the legacy model.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS1984

Three dimensional global modeling of atmospheric CO2

The initial attempts to model the atmospheric CO2 distribution, including couplings to the ocean and biosphere as sources and sinks of atmospheric CO2, encourage the notion that this approach will lead to useful quantitative constraints on CO2 fluxes. Realization of this objective will require: (1) continued improvement in the realism of the global transport modeling; (2) extended timeline of atmospheric CO2 monitoring, which improved precision and improved definition of the uncertainties in the measured CO2 amounts; and (3) given an accurate knowledge of model capabilities and limitations and given a good understanding of CO2 observations and their limitations, there is a need for good ideas concerning what quantitative information on the carbon cycle can be inferred from global modeling.

Hanse, J.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Initialization procedures for primitive equation models

A linear analysis and comparison of the damping properties of six dynamic initialization schemes is presented, indicating that the Okamura-Rivas scheme has the most efficient damping properties over the whole frequency range, and suggesting that it should be faster than the other methods and given more stable results. The results obtained with a nonlinear shallow water equations model agree well with the linear analysis. The Okamura-Rivas scheme attains complete balance in the equivalent of 5 to 6 hours of leapfrog forecasting, and requires in this model an order of magnitude less computation than the balance equation solution.

Grant, W. K. F.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Importance of Multiplicity Fluctuations in Entropy Scaling

One of the greatest uncertainties in heavy-ion collisions is the description of the initial state. Different models predict a wide range of initial energy density distributions based on their underlying assumptions. Final flow harmonics are sensitive to these differences in the initial state due to the nearly linear mapping between eccentricities and anisotropic flow harmonics. The Trento code uses a model-agnostic approach by phenomenologically parameterizing the initial state and constraining those parameters from a Bayesian analysis. There the multiplicity fluctuations were determined by a one parameter Γ distribution. However, initial-state models arising from the Color-Glass Condensate (CGC) framework lead to an initial energy density which is outside the functional form considered in Trento and its later Bayesian analyses because they rely on log-normal multiplicity fluctuations. We compare T A T B scaling (CGC-like) to √T A T B scaling (preferred from a Trento Bayesian analysis) and find that the T A T B form together with log-normal fluctuations is a reasonable candidate to describe the multiplicity fluctuations but leads to larger eccentricities, which would affect the extraction of viscosity in small systems.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Elliptic flow of charged particles at midrapidity relative to the spectator plane in Pb–Pb and Xe–Xe collisions

Measurements of the elliptic flow coefficient relative to the collision plane defined by the spectator neutrons v 2 {$Ψ_{SP}$} in collisions of Pb ions at center-of-mass energy per nucleon–nucleon pair $\sqrt{s_{NN}}=$ 2.76 TeV and Xe ions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}=$ 5.44 TeV are reported. The results are presented for charged particles produced at midrapidity as a function of centrality and transverse momentum for the 5–70% and 0.2–6 GeV/c ranges, respectively. The ratio between v 2 {$Ψ_{SP}$} and the elliptic flow coefficient relative to the participant plane v 2 {4}, estimated using four-particle correlations, deviates by up to 20% from unity depending on centrality. This observation differs strongly from the magnitude of the corresponding eccentricity ratios predicted by the T R ENTo and the elliptic power models of initial state fluctuations that are tuned to describe the participant plane anisotropies. The differences can be interpreted as a decorrelation of the neutron spectator plane and the reaction plane because of fragmentation of the remnants from the colliding nuclei, which points to an incompleteness of current models describing the initial state fluctuations. A significant transverse momentum dependence of the ratio v 2 {$Ψ_{SP}$} /v 2 {4} is observed in all but the most central collisions, which may help to understand whether momentum anisotropies at low and intermediate transverse momentum have a common origin in initial state fluctuations. The ratios of v 2 {$Ψ_{SP}$} and v 2 {4} to the corresponding initial state eccentricities for Xe–Xe and Pb–Pb collisions at similar initial entropy density show a difference of (7.0 ± 0.9)% with an additional variation of +1.8% when including RHIC data in the T R ENTo parameter extraction. These observations provide new experimental constraints for viscous effects in the hydrodynamic modeling of the expanding quark–gluon plasma produced in heavy-ion collisions at the LHC.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Advancing research on compound weather and climate events via large ensemble model simulations

Societally relevant weather impacts typically result from compound events, which are rare combinations of weather and climate drivers. Focussing on four event types arising from different combinations of climate variables across space and time, here we illustrate that robust analyses of compound events — such as frequency and uncertainty analysis under present-day and future conditions, event attribution to climate change, and exploration of low-probability-high-impact events — require data with very large sample size. In particular, the required sample is much larger than that needed for analyses of univariate extremes. We demonstrate that Single Model Initial-condition Large Ensemble (SMILE) simulations from multiple climate models, which provide hundreds to thousands of years of weather conditions, are crucial for advancing our assessments of compound events and constructing robust model projections. Combining SMILEs with an improved physical understanding of compound events will ultimately provide practitioners and stakeholders with the best available information on climate risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

A consensus mathematical model of vaccine-induced antibody dynamics for multiple vaccine platforms and pathogens

Introduction: Vaccine platforms used in successful, licensed vaccines have varied among pathogens. However, antibody level is still the main clinical correlate of protection in most approved vaccines. Decisions as to the best vaccine platform to pursue for a given pathogen may be informed through improved understanding of the process of antibody generation and its temporal dynamics, as well as the relationship between these processes and the type of vaccine. Methods: We have analyzed the dynamics of antibody generation for different vaccine platforms against diverse pathogens, and developed a consensus mathematical model that captures antibody dynamics across these diverse systems. Initially, the model was fitted to a rich dataset of antibody and immune cell concentrations in a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine experiment. We then used concepts from machine learning, such as transfer learning, to apply the same model to a variety of systems, involving different pathogens, vaccine platforms, and booster dose use/timing, fixing most parameter values relating to the dynamics of the immune system. Results: The model includes B cell proliferation and differentiation, as well as the generation of plasma cells, which secrete large amounts of antibody, and memory B cells. Overall, the model describes antibody generation in all systems tested well and shows that the main differences across platforms are related to the dynamics of antigen presentation. Discussion: This model can be used to predict antibody generation in pairs of vaccine platform/pathogen, allowing for the use of in silico results to narrow down experimental burden in vaccine development.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2014

Climate Scenarios for the NASA / USAID SERVIR Project: Challenges for Multiple Planning Horizons

SERVIR, an acronym meaning "to serve" in Spanish, is a joint venture between NASA and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) which provides satellite-based Earth observation data, modeling, and science applications to help developing nations in Central America, East Africa and the Himalayas improve environmental decision making. Anticipating climate variability / climate change impacts has now become an important component of the SERVIR efforts to build capacity in these regions. Uncertainty in hydrometeorological components of climate variations and exposure to extreme events across scales from weather to climate are of particular concern. We report here on work to construct scenarios or outlooks that are being developed as input drivers for decision support systems (DSSs) in a variety of settings. These DSSs are being developed jointly by a broad array NASA Applied Science Team (AST) Investigations and user communities in the three SERVIR Hub Regions, Central America, East Africa and the Himalayas. Issues span hydrologic / water resources modeling, agricultural productivity, and forest carbon reserves. The scenarios needed for these efforts encompass seasonal forecasts, interannual outlooks, and likely decadal / multi-decadal trends. Providing these scenarios across the different AST efforts enables some level of integration in considering regional responses to climate events. We will discuss a number of challenges in developing this continuum of scenarios including the identification and "mining" of predictability, addressing multiple continental regions, issues of downscaling global model integrations to regional / local applications (i.e. hydrologic and crop modeling). We compare / contrast the role of the U.S. National Multi- Model Experiment initiative in seasonal forecasts and the CMIP-5 climate model experiments in supporting these efforts. Examples of these scenarios, their use, and an assessment of their utility as well as limitations will be presented.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

NASA NTRS2002

NASA Hybrid Reflectometer Project

Time-domain and frequency-domain reflectometry have been used for about forty years to locate opens and shorts in cables. Interpretation of reflectometry data is as much art as science. Is there information in the data that is being missed? Can the reflectometers be improved to allow us to detect and locate defects in cables that are not outright shorts or opens? The Hybrid Reflectometer Project was begun this year at NASA Ames Research Center, initially to model wire physics, simulating time-domain reflectometry (TDR) signals in those models and validating the models against actual TDR data taken on testbed cables. Theoretical models of reflectometry in wires will give us an understanding of the merits and limits of these techniques and will guide the application of a proposed hybrid reflectometer with the aim of enhancing reflectometer sensitivity to the point that wire defects can be detected. We will point out efforts by some other researchers to apply wire physics models to the problem of defect detection in wires and we will describe our own initial efforts to create wire physics models and report on testbed validation of the TDR simulations.

Lynch, Dana↗

NASA NTRS2001

Modeling of Chill Down in Cryogenic Transfer Lines

A numerical model to predict chill down in cryogenic transfer lines has been developed. Three chill down cases using hydrogen as the working fluid are solved: 1) a simplified model amenable to analytical solution, 2) a realistic model of superheated vapor flow, and 3) a realistic model of initially subcooled liquid flow. The first case compares a numerical model with an analytical solution with very good agreement between the two. Additionally, the analytical solution provides a convenient way to look at parametric effects on the chill down. The second and third cases are numerical models which provide temperature histories of the fluid and solid tube wall during chill down as well as several other quantities of interest such as pressure and mass flow rate. Of great interest is the ability to predict accurate values of chill down time (the time required to achieve steady-state cryogenic flow). The models predict that a 26 in. long, 3/16 in. ID aluminum tube has a shorter chill down time (approx. equal to 100 sec) and uses less hydrogen with superheated vapor flow than with initially subcooled liquid flow (greater than 200 sec for chill down).

Cross, Matthew F.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Comparing Transformation Pathways Across Major Economies

This paper aims at providing an overview of the transformation pathways for the seven largest greenhouse-gas (GHG) emitting regions and countries in the world, in line with their contributions to limiting global average temperature increase to well below 2oC as compared to pre-industrial levels. We introduce the methodology for developing these pathways by initially discussing the iterative process by which global integrated assessment models (IAMs) initiated discussions by suggesting boundary conditions in the form of carbon budgets for different regions and countries. The carbon budgets subsequently agreed upon were then used in eleven different regional and national energy-economy models and IAMs for deriving low-carbon pathways in line with a well-below-2oC world. We present a comparative assessment of the resulting regional and national pathways, and of the challenges and opportunities associated with them.

Schaeffer, Roberto↗

DOE OSTI2025

Generative learning for slow manifolds and bifurcation diagrams

In dynamical systems characterized by separation of time scales, the approximation of so called “slow manifolds”, on which the long term dynamics lie, is a useful step for model reduction. Initializing on such slow manifolds is a useful step in modeling, since it circumvents fast transients, and is crucial in multiscale algorithms (like the equation-free approach) alternating between fine scale (fast) and coarser scale (slow) simulations. In a similar spirit, when one studies the infinite time dynamics of systems depending on parameters, the system attractors (e.g., its steady states) lie on bifurcation diagrams (curves for one-parameter continuation, and more generally, on manifolds in state parameter space. Sampling these manifolds gives us representative attractors (here, steady states of ODEs or PDEs) at different parameter values. Algorithms for the systematic construction of these manifolds (slow manifolds, bifurcation diagrams) are required parts of the “traditional” numerical nonlinear dynamics toolkit. In more recent years, as the field of Machine Learning develops, conditional score-based generative models (cSGMs) have been demonstrated to exhibit remarkable capabilities in generating plausible data from target distributions that are conditioned on some given label. It is tempting to exploit such generative models to produce samples of data distributions (points on a slow manifold, steady states on a bifurcation surface) conditioned on (consistent with) some quantity of interest (QoI, observable). In this work, we present a framework for using cSGMs to quickly (a) initialize on a low-dimensional (reduced-order) slow manifold of a multi-time-scale system consistent with desired value(s) of a QoI (a “label”) on the manifold, and (b) approximate steady states in a bifurcation diagram consistent with a (new, out-of-sample) parameter value. This conditional sampling can help uncover the geometry of the reduced slow-manifold and/or approximately “fill in” missing segments of steady states in a bifurcation diagram. Finally, the quantity of interest, which determines how the sampling is conditioned, is either known a priori or identified using manifold learning-based dimensionality reduction techniques applied to the training data.

Dynamical systems↗

DOE OSTI2020

2023 National Offshore Wind data set (NOW-23)

The 2023 National Offshore Wind data set (NOW-23) is the latest wind resource data set for offshore regions in the United States, which supersedes, for its offshore component, the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit, which was published about a decade ago and is currently one of the primary resources for stakeholders conducting wind resource assessments in the continental United States. The NOW-23 data set was produced using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) version 4.2.1. A regional approach was used: for each offshore region, the WRF setup was selected based on validation against available observations. The WRF model was initialized with the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts 5 Reanalysis (ERA-5) data set, using a 6-hour refresh rate. The model is configured with an initial horizontal grid spacing of 6 km and an internal nested domain that refined the spatial resolution to 2 km. The model is run with 61 vertical levels, with 12 levels in the lower 300m of the atmosphere, stretching from 5 m to 45 m in height. The MYNN planetary boundary layer and surface layer schemes were used the North Atlantic, Mid Atlantic, Great Lakes, Hawaii, and North Pacific regions. On the other hand, using the YSU planetary boundary layer and MM5 surface layer schemes resulted in a better skill in the South Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and South Pacific regions. A more detailed description of the WRF model setup can be found in the WRF namelist files linked at the bottom of this page. For all regions, the NOW-23 data set coverage starts on January 1, 2000. For Hawaii and the North Pacific regions, NOW-23 goes until December 31, 2019. For the South Pacific region, the model goes until 31 December, 2022. For all other regions, the model covers until December 31, 2020. Outputs are available at 5 minute resolution, and for all regions we have also included output files at hourly resolution. The NOW-23 data are provided here as HDF5 files. Examples of how to use the HSDS Service to Access the NOW-23 files are linked below. A list of the variables included in the NOW-23 files is also linked below. No filters have been applied to the raw WRF output.

Array↗

NASA NTRS2012

Recent Upgrades to NASA SPoRT Initialization Datasets for the Environmental Modeling System

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed several products for its NOAA/National Weather Service (NWS) partners that can initialize specific fields for local model runs within the NOAA/NWS Science and Training Resource Center Environmental Modeling System (EMS). The suite of SPoRT products for use in the EMS consists of a Sea Surface Temperature (SST) composite that includes a Lake Surface Temperature (LST) analysis over the Great Lakes, a Great Lakes sea-ice extent within the SST composite, a real-time Green Vegetation Fraction (GVF) composite, and NASA Land Information System (LIS) gridded output. This paper and companion poster describe each dataset and provide recent upgrades made to the SST, Great Lakes LST, GVF composites, and the real-time LIS runs.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

DOE OSTI2019

Development and Validation of a Conjugate Heat Transfer Model for the Two-Phase CFD Code NEK-2P

A project is underway to develop, verify and validate an advanced two-phase flow modeling capability for the highly-scalable, high-performance CFD code NEK5000. The goal of the project is to develop a new two-phase version of the NEK5000 code, named NEK-2P, to simulate the two-phase flow and heat transfer phenomena that occur in a Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) fuel bundle under various operating conditions. The NEK-2P two-phase flow models follow the approach used for the Extended Boiling Framework (EBF) [2-3] previously developed at Argonne, but include more fundamental physical models of boiling phenomena and advanced numerical algorithms for improved computational accuracy, robustness, and computational speed. The development of the NEK-2P two-phase solver and the implementation of the Extended Boiling Framework two-phase models were initially supported by Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) through a Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project during FY2014-2016. The development and validation of the two-phase models through analyses of selected two-phase boiling flow experiments was supported by the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program in FY2017-2019. This report focuses on the FY2019 development and validation of the Conjugate Heat Transfer (CHT) model for the NEK-2P Two-Phase, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code. The NEK-2P CHT model calculates the coupled behavior of the fluid and solid domains. In the fluid domain NEK-2P calculates the vapor and liquid phase temperatures, velocities and mass fractions. In the solid domain only the temperatures are calculated. The fluid and solid domains are coupled with a heat flux boundary condition at the fluid-solid interface. The heat flux and the wall temperatures at the fluid-solid interface are updated using the NEK-2P wall heat-flux partitioning model. A wall heat flux boundary condition is also applied to the exterior surface of the solid domain. The CHT model validation was illustrated through the analysis of three of the Becker Critical Heat Flux (CHF) tests. Reasonably good agreement with measured data was obtained in predicting the CHF location and post CHF wall temperature behavior illustrating the ability of the NEK-2P CHT model to simulate the CHF phenomena for a wide range of thermal-hydraulic conditions. Apart from the CHT model development and validation, initial simulations were performed for the Virginia Tech. (VT) 3x3 bare rod bundle experiments including both cold and boiling flow simulations.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS1975

Electronic delay ignition module for single bridgewire Apollo standard initiator

An engineering model and a qualification model of the EDIM were constructed and tested to Scout flight qualification criteria. The qualification model incorporated design improvements resulting from the engineering model tests. Compatibility with single bridgewire Apollo standard initiator (SBASI) was proven by test firing forty-five (45) SBASI's with worst case voltage and temperature conditions. The EDIM was successfully qualified for Scout flight application with no failures during testing of the qualification unit. Included is a method of implementing the EDIM into Scout vehicle hardware and the ground support equipment necessary to check out the system.

Ward, R. D.↗