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DOE OSTI2023

Studies of the muon momentum calibration and performance of the ATLAS detector with $pp$ collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV

This paper presents the muon momentum calibration and performance studies for the ATLAS detector based on the $pp$ collisions data sample produced at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV at the LHC during Run 2 and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb –1 . An innovative approach is used to correct for potential charge-dependent momentum biases related to the knowledge of the detector geometry, using the $Z$ → $μ^+$ $μ^–$ resonance. The muon momentum scale and resolution are measured using samples of $J/ψ$ → $μ^+$ $μ^–$ and $Z$ → $μ^+$ $μ^–$ events. A calibration procedure is defined and applied to simulated data to match the performance measured in real data. The calibration is validated using an independent sample of $Υ$ → $μ^+$ $μ^–$ events. At the Z ($J/ψ$) peak, the momentum scale is measured with an uncertainty at the 0.05% (0.1%) level, and the resolution is measured with an uncertainty at the 1.5% (2%) level. The charge-dependent bias is removed with a dedicated in situ correction for momenta up to 450 GeV with a precision better than 0.03 TeV –1 .

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS2016

Spatial and Temporal Uncertainty of Crop Yield Aggregations

The aggregation of simulated gridded crop yields to national or regional scale requires information on temporal and spatial patterns of crop-specific harvested areas. This analysis estimates the uncertainty of simulated gridded yield time series related to the aggregation with four different harvested area data sets. We compare aggregated yield time series from the Global Gridded Crop Model Inter-comparison project for four crop types from 14 models at global, national, and regional scale to determine aggregation-driven differences in mean yields and temporal patterns as measures of uncertainty. The quantity and spatial patterns of harvested areas differ for individual crops among the four datasets applied for the aggregation. Also simulated spatial yield patterns differ among the 14 models. These differences in harvested areas and simulated yield patterns lead to differences in aggregated productivity estimates, both in mean yield and in the temporal dynamics. Among the four investigated crops, wheat yield (17% relative difference) is most affected by the uncertainty introduced by the aggregation at the global scale. The correlation of temporal patterns of global aggregated yield time series can be as low as for soybean (r = 0.28).For the majority of countries, mean relative differences of nationally aggregated yields account for10% or less. The spatial and temporal difference can be substantial higher for individual countries. Of the top-10 crop producers, aggregated national multi-annual mean relative difference of yields can be up to 67% (maize, South Africa), 43% (wheat, Pakistan), 51% (rice, Japan), and 427% (soybean, Bolivia).Correlations of differently aggregated yield time series can be as low as r = 0.56 (maize, India), r = 0.05∗Corresponding (wheat, Russia), r = 0.13 (rice, Vietnam), and r = −0.01 (soybean, Uruguay). The aggregation to sub-national scale in comparison to country scale shows that spatial uncertainties can cancel out in countries with large harvested areas per crop type. We conclude that the aggregation uncertainty can be substantial for crop productivity and production estimations in the context of food security, impact assessment, and model evaluation exercises.

Aggregation uncertainty↗

NASA NTRS2012

Impact of Land Model Calibration on Coupled Land-Atmosphere Prediction

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface heat and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry and wet land surface conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through calibration of the Noah land surface model using the new optimization and uncertainty estimation subsystem in NASA's Land Information System (LIS-OPT/UE). The impact of the calibration on the a) spinup of the land surface used as initial conditions, and b) the simulated heat and moisture states and fluxes of the coupled WRF simulations is then assessed. Changes in ambient weather and land-atmosphere coupling are evaluated along with measures of uncertainty propagation into the forecasts. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, average) is investigated. Results indicate that the offline calibration leads to systematic improvements in land-PBL fluxes and near-surface temperature and humidity, and in the process provide guidance on the questions of what, how, and when to calibrate land surface models for coupled model prediction.

Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Zero Power Reactor Database (ZPRD) Development Plan

Past sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFR) were built with an active experimental program in place to support the design and development work. Most of the experimental facilities in the United States that were important for SFR design were shutdown in the 1980s and 1990s. Reactor licensing and construction requires any reactor design to be verified against existing reactor facilities or experimental measurements. With the absence of those experimental facilities, modern SFR projects must rely on historical measurements to demonstrate that the engineering modeling software and data being used for the new reactor design work are reliable. There has been a considerable push in the last 6 years by both DOE and commercial companies to obtain historical experimental measurements that are relevant for SFRs, in particular those with features that are important for the new reactor designs of interest. The zero power reactor experiments carried out at Argonne National Laboratory’s critical facilities (ZPR-3, ZPR-6, ZPR-9, and ZPPR) from the 1950s to the 1980s are some of the best reactor physics experiments on SFR technology that are available today. Of particular interest today are the ZPPR-15 measurements done at the ZPPR facility for the Integral Fast Reactor project in the 1980s as they are in line with most commercial and DOE interests today. In the past 10 years, the measurements done on ZPPR-15 have been processed into both Monte Carlo (MCNP) and deterministic models (MC2-3 and DIF3D) useable for validating the engineering modeling software for key parts of the SFR design work. To achieve this, a detailed model description must be created for the experiment and the experimental measurement that the engineering modeling software is to reproduce. Then, an assessment of the uncertainty on the measured quantity which considers all of the sources of uncertainty in defining the model must be obtained and documented. The models created for ZPPR-15 provide the best validation basis available today for neutronics modeling software. Reference 2 is a good resource to understand how these models were built and how the uncertainties on the measured quantities were derived. The intention of the Zero Power Reactor Database (ZPRD), hosted at frdb.ne.anl.gov, is to make available the experimental measurements and models that have been constructed to-date. Though ZPPR-15 measurements are the primary data requested for validation needs, other measurements on ZPPR, ZPR-6, and ZPR-9 in support of the Clinch River Breeder Reactor (CRBR) and Fast Test Reactor (FFTF) should also be considered important for future software validation needs. In this manuscript, the details of available measurements on ZPR-3, ZPR-6, ZPR-9, and ZPPR facilities are summarized, and a general organization of the web interface is displayed. Many of the documents associated with the measurements are export controlled information so access to the database will also have to be controlled.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

The next-generation particle x-ray temporal diagnostic for simultaneous time-resolved measurements of nuclear-burn and x-ray emission histories in support of basic-science and inertial confinement fusion experiments at OMEGA

The next-generation Particle X-ray Temporal Diagnostic (PXTD) has been implemented for simultaneous measurements of x-ray, charged particle, and neutron emission histories from a wide range of inertial confinement fusion and high energy density plasma experiments, demonstrating excellent timing accuracy and greatly improved experimental flexibility. The key changes to the previously fielded system are a redesigned set of thin foil filters in front of the scintillators and individual neutral density filters for each region of the detector. The fully implemented PXTD system can provide unique information about the evolution of ion and electron temperatures in multi-ion and kinetic-physics experiments, proton radiography experiments, and DT experiments executed at the OMEGA facility. The system has 35 ps time resolution and negligible relative timing uncertainty between measured emission history signals. The first use of the upgraded four-channel PXTD system during a set of D 3 He-filled silica-glass implosions on OMEGA captured electron temperatures with a minimum uncertainty of 0.5 keV and resolved both the relative timings and widths of neutron, proton, and x-ray peaks within a single recorded image.

Evans, T. E. [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (M↗

NASA NTRS1975

Measurements of SO2 absorption coefficients using a tunable dye laser

High-resolution measurements of SO2 absorption coefficients in the UV are presented in the wavelength interval between 2962 and 3011 A using a frequency-doubled dye laser as the radiation source. These measurements have application to pollution monitoring of SO2 using the differential absorption scattering (DAS) technique. The spectral resolution of the measurements was 0.2 A (determined by the linewidth of the dye laser) and the generated spectra exhibited considerable rotational structure on the (000) double prime to (060) prime, (070) prime, and (080) prime electronic-vibrational transitions. The latter transitions correspond to center wavelengths of 3001.8, 2981.0, and 2962 A, respectively. The laser measurements were obtained with a signal-processing technique which eliminated calibration procedures associated with conventional optical-absorption measurements. Using this technique, the statistical uncertainty associated with measured absorption coefficients has been reduced to less than plus or minus 2% with a wavelength uncertainty of the laser source of plus or minus 0.1 A.

Thompson, R. T., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2012

NASA's Carbon Monitoring System Flux-Pilot Project: A Multi-Component Analysis System for Carbon-Cycle Research and Monitoring

The importance of greenhouse gas increases for climate motivates NASA s observing strategy for CO2 from space, including the forthcoming Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2) mission. Carbon cycle monitoring, including attribution of atmospheric concentrations to regional emissions and uptake, requires a robust modeling and analysis infrastructure to optimally extract information from the observations. NASA's Carbon-Monitoring System Flux-Pilot Project (FPP) is a prototype for such analysis, combining a set of unique tools to facilitate analysis of atmospheric CO2 along with fluxes between the atmosphere and the terrestrial biosphere or ocean. NASA's analysis system is unique, in that it combines information and expertise from the land, oceanic, and atmospheric branches of the carbon cycle and includes some estimates of uncertainty. Numerous existing space-based missions provide information of relevance to the carbon cycle. This study describes the components of the FPP framework, assessing the realism of computed fluxes, thus providing the basis for research and monitoring applications. Fluxes are computed using data-constrained terrestrial biosphere models and physical ocean models, driven by atmospheric observations and assimilating ocean-color information. Use of two estimates provides a measure of uncertainty in the fluxes. Along with inventories of other emissions, these data-derived fluxes are used in transport models to assess their consistency with atmospheric CO2 observations. Closure is achieved by using a four-dimensional data assimilation (inverse) approach that adjusts the terrestrial biosphere fluxes to make them consistent with the atmospheric CO2 observations. Results will be shown, illustrating the year-to-year variations in land biospheric and oceanic fluxes computed in the FPP. The signals of these surface-flux variations on atmospheric CO2 will be isolated using forward modeling tools, which also incorporate estimates of transport error. The results will be discussed in the context of interannual variability of observed atmospheric CO2 distributions.

Pawson, S.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Hypersonic Boundary Layer Measurements with Variable Blowing Rates Using Molecular Tagging Velocimetry

Measurements of mean and instantaneous streamwise velocity profiles in a hypersonic boundary layer with variable rates of mass injection (blowing) of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) were obtained over a 10-degree half-angle wedge model. The NO2 was seeded into the flow from a slot located 29.4 mm downstream of the sharp leading edge. The top surface of the wedge was oriented at a 20 degree angle in the Mach 10 flow, yielding an edge Mach number of approximately 4.2. The streamwise velocity profiles and streamwise fluctuating velocity component profiles were obtained using a three-laser NO2->NO photolysis molecular tagging velocimetry method. Observed trends in the mean streamwise velocity profiles and profiles of the fluctuating component of streamwise velocity as functions of the blowing rate are described. An effort is made to distinguish between the effect of blowing rate and wall temperature on the measured profiles. An analysis of the mean velocity profiles for a constant blowing rate is presented to determine the uncertainty in the measurement for different probe laser delay settings. Measurements of streamwise velocity were made to within approximately 120 gm of the model surface. The streamwise spatial resolution in this experiment ranged from 0.6 mm to 2.6 mm. An improvement in the spatial precision of the measurement technique has been made, with spatial uncertainties reduced by about a factor of 2 compared to previous measurements. For the quiescent flow calibration measurements presented, uncertainties as low as 2 m/s are obtained at 95% confidence for long delay times (25 gs). For the velocity measurements obtained with the wind tunnel operating, average single-shot uncertainties of less than 44 m/s are obtained at 95% confidence with a probe laser delay setting of 1 gs. The measurements were performed in the 31-inch Mach 10 Air Tunnel at the NASA Langley Research Center.

Bathel, Brett F.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of 𝐵 + →𝜏 + ⁢𝜈 𝜏 branching fraction with a hadronic tagging method at Belle II

We present a measurement of the branching fraction of 𝐵 + →𝜏 + ⁢𝜈 𝜏 decays using 387±6×10 6 ϒ⁡(4⁢𝑆) collected between 2019 and 2022 with the Belle II detector at the SuperKEKB 𝑒 + ⁢𝑒 − collider. We reconstruct the accompanying 𝐵 − meson using the hadronic tagging method, while 𝐵 + →𝜏 + ⁢𝜈 𝜏 candidates are identified in the recoil. We find evidence for 𝐵 + →𝜏 + ⁢𝜈 𝜏 decays at 3.0 standard deviations, including systematic uncertainties. The measured branching fraction is ℬ⁡(𝐵 + →𝜏 + ⁢𝜈 𝜏 )=[1.24±0.41⁢(stat)±0.19⁢(syst)]×10 −4 .

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Use of a controlled experiment and computational models to measure the impact of sequential peer exposures on decision making

It is widely believed that one’s peers influence product adoption behaviors. This relationship has been linked to the number of signals a decision-maker receives in a social network. But it is unclear if these same principles hold when the “pattern” by which it receives these signals vary and when peer influence is directed towards choices which are not optimal. To investigate that, we manipulate social signal exposure in an online controlled experiment using a game with human participants. Each participant in the game decides among choices with differing utilities. We observe the following: (1) even in the presence of monetary risks and previously acquired knowledge of the choices, decision-makers tend to deviate from the obvious optimal decision when their peers make a similar decision which we call the influence decision, (2) when the quantity of social signals vary over time, the forwarding probability of the influence decision and therefore being responsive to social influence does not necessarily correlate proportionally to the absolute quantity of signals. To better understand how these rules of peer influence could be used in modeling applications of real world diffusion and in networked environments, we use our behavioral findings to simulate spreading dynamics in real world case studies. We specifically try to see how cumulative influence plays out in the presence of user uncertainty and measure its outcome on rumor diffusion, which we model as an example of sub-optimal choice diffusion. Together, our simulation results indicate that sequential peer effects from the influence decision overcomes individual uncertainty to guide faster rumor diffusion over time. However, when the rate of diffusion is slow in the beginning, user uncertainty can have a substantial role compared to peer influence in deciding the adoption trajectory of a piece of questionable information.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2014

GCR Environmental Models I: Sensitivity Analysis for GCR Environments

Accurate galactic cosmic ray (GCR) models are required to assess crew exposure during long-duration missions to the Moon or Mars. Many of these models have been developed and compared to available measurements, with uncertainty estimates usually stated to be less than 15%. However, when the models are evaluated over a common epoch and propagated through to effective dose, relative differences exceeding 50% are observed. This indicates that the metrics used to communicate GCR model uncertainty can be better tied to exposure quantities of interest for shielding applications. This is the first of three papers focused on addressing this need. In this work, the focus is on quantifying the extent to which each GCR ion and energy group, prior to entering any shielding material or body tissue, contributes to effective dose behind shielding. Results can be used to more accurately calibrate model-free parameters and provide a mechanism for refocusing validation efforts on measurements taken over important energy regions. Results can also be used as references to guide future nuclear cross-section measurements and radiobiology experiments. It is found that GCR with Z>2 and boundary energies below 500 MeV/n induce less than 5% of the total effective dose behind shielding. This finding is important given that most of the GCR models are developed and validated against Advanced Composition Explorer/Cosmic Ray Isotope Spectrometer (ACE/CRIS) measurements taken below 500 MeV/n. It is therefore possible for two models to very accurately reproduce the ACE/CRIS data while inducing very different effective dose values behind shielding.

Slaba, Tony C.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Translation of Land Surface Model Accuracy and Uncertainty into Coupled Land-Atmosphere Prediction

Land-atmosphere (L-A) Interactions playa critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface heat and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry (2006) and wet (2007) land surface conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through the use of a new optimization and uncertainty estimation module in NASA's Land Information System (US-OPT/UE), whereby parameter sets are calibrated in the Noah land surface model and classified according to a land cover and soil type mapping of the observation sites to the full model domain. The impact of calibrated parameters on the a) spinup of the land surface used as initial conditions, and b) heat and moisture states and fluxes of the coupled WRF Simulations are then assessed in terms of ambient weather and land-atmosphere coupling along with measures of uncertainty propagation into the forecasts. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, average) is investigated. Finally, tradeoffs of computational tractability and scientific validity, and the potential for combining this approach with satellite remote sensing data are also discussed.

Santanello, Joseph A.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Impact of Calibrated Land Surface Model Parameters on the Accuracy and Uncertainty of Land-Atmosphere Coupling in WRF Simulations

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface temperature and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry (2006) and wet (2007) land surface conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through the use of a new optimization and uncertainty estimation module in NASA's Land Information System (LIS-OPT/UE), whereby parameter sets are calibrated in the Noah land surface model and classified according to a land cover and soil type mapping of the observation sites to the full model domain. The impact of calibrated parameters on the a) spinup of the land surface used as initial conditions, and b) heat and moisture states and fluxes of the coupled WRF simulations are then assessed in terms of ambient weather and land-atmosphere coupling along with measures of uncertainty propagation into the forecasts. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, average) is investigated. Finally, tradeoffs of computational tractability and scientific validity, and the potential for combining this approach with satellite remote sensing data are also discussed.

Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Accuracy of the spectral and radiometric laboratory calibration of the Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS)

The laboratory procedures, algorithms, measurements, and uncertainties associated with generation of the spectral and radiometric calibration of data acquired by AVIRIS are described. AVIRIS is an airborne sensor that obtains high-spatial-resolution image data of the earth in 224 spectral channels in four spectrometers covering the range from 400 to 2450 nm. The spectral calibration of AVIRIS agrees with the in-flight data to within two nanometers, and the absolute radiometric calibration is consistent with the in-flight verification to 10 percent over the spectral range. In-flight radiometric stability as measured by five consecutive passes over the surface calibration site is reported to be between three and five percent.

Chrien, Thomas G.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Algorithms for Autonomous GPS Orbit Determination and Formation Flying: Investigation of Initialization Approaches and Orbit Determination for HEO

This report summarizes the efforts to date in processing GPS measurements in High Earth Orbit (HEO) applications by the Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research (CCAR). Two specific projects were conducted; initialization of the orbit propagation software, GEODE, using nominal orbital elements for the IMEX orbit, and processing of actual and simulated GPS data from the AMSAT satellite using a Doppler-only batch filter. CCAR has investigated a number of approaches for initialization of the GEODE orbit estimator with little a priori information. This document describes a batch solution approach that uses pseudorange or Doppler measurements collected over an orbital arc to compute an epoch state estimate. The algorithm is based on limited orbital element knowledge from which a coarse estimate of satellite position and velocity can be determined and used to initialize GEODE. This algorithm assumes knowledge of nominal orbital elements, (a, e, i, omega, omega) and uses a search on time of perigee passage (tau(sub p)) to estimate the host satellite position within the orbit and the approximate receiver clock bias. Results of the method are shown for a simulation including large orbital uncertainties and measurement errors. In addition, CCAR has attempted to process GPS data from the AMSAT satellite to obtain an initial estimation of the orbit. Limited GPS data have been received to date, with few satellites tracked and no computed point solutions. Unknown variables in the received data have made computations of a precise orbit using the recovered pseudorange difficult. This document describes the Doppler-only batch approach used to compute the AMSAT orbit. Both actual flight data from AMSAT, and simulated data generated using the Satellite Tool Kit and Goddard Space Flight Center's Flight Simulator, were processed. Results for each case and conclusion are presented.

Axelrad, Penina↗

DOE OSTI2023

The DESI One-Percent Survey: exploring a generalized SHAM for multiple tracers with the UNIT simulation

We perform SubHalo Abundance Matching (SHAM) studies on UNIT simulations with {σ, V ceil , v smear }-SHAM and {σ, V ceil , $f$ sat }-SHAM. They are designed to reproduce the clustering on 5–30 h -1 Mpc of luminous red galaxies (LRGs), emission-line galaxies (ELGs), and quasi-stellar objects (QSOs) at 0.4 < z < 3.5 from DESI (Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument) One Percent Survey. V ceil is the incompleteness of the massive host (sub)haloes and is the key to the generalized SHAM. v smear models the clustering effect of redshift uncertainties, providing measurements consistent with those from repeat observations. A free satellite fraction $f$ sat is necessary to reproduce the clustering of ELGs. We find ELGs present a more complex galaxy–halo mass relation than LRGs reflected in their weak constraints on σ. LRGs, QSOs, and ELGs show increasing V ceil values, corresponding to the massive galaxy incompleteness of LRGs, the quenched star formation of ELGs and the quenched black hole accretion of QSOs. For LRGs, a Gaussian v smear presents a better profile for subsamples at redshift bins than a Lorentzian profile used for other tracers. The impact of the statistical redshift uncertainty on ELG clustering is negligible. The best-fitting satellite fraction for DESI ELGs is around 4 per cent, lower than previous estimations for ELGs. The mean halo mass log 10 ($\langle$M vir $\rangle$) in h -1 M ⊙ for LRGs, ELGs, and QSOs are 13.16 ± 0.01, 11.90 ± 0.06, and 12.66 ± 0.45, respectively. Our generalized SHAM algorithms facilitate the production of multitracer galaxy mocks for cosmological tests.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Vertical profiles of light absorption and scattering associated with black carbon particle fractions in the springtime Arctic above 79° N

Despite the potential importance of black carbon (BC) for radiative forcing of the Arctic atmosphere, vertically resolved measurements of the particle light scattering coefficient (σ sp ) and light absorption coefficient (σ ap ) in the springtime Arctic atmosphere are infrequent, especially measurements at latitudes at or above 80° N. Here, relationships among vertically distributed aerosol optical properties (σap, σsp and single scattering albedo or SSA), particle microphysics and particle chemistry are examined for a region of the Canadian archipelago between 79.9 and 83.4° N from near the surface to 50 hPa. Airborne data collected during April 2015 are combined with ground-based observations from the observatory at Alert, Nunavut and simulations from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model, GEOS-Chem, coupled with the TwO-Moment Aerosol Sectional (TOMAS) model (collectively GEOS-Chem–TOMAS; Kodros et al., 2018) to further our knowledge of the effects of BC on light absorption in the Arctic troposphere. The results are constrained for σsp less than 15 Mm -1 , which represent 98% of the observed σsp, because the single scattering albedo (SSA) has a tendency to be lower at lower σsp, resulting in a larger relative contribution to Arctic warming. At 18.4 m 2 g -1 , the average BC mass absorption coefficient (MAC) from the combined airborne and Alert observations is substantially higher than the two averaged modelled MAC values (13.6 and 9.1 m2 g -1 ) for two different internal mixing assumptions, the latter of which is based on previous observations. The higher observed MAC value may be explained by an underestimation of BC, the presence of small amounts of dust and/or possible differences in BC microphysics and morphologies between the observations and model. In comparing the observations and simulations, we present σap and SSA, as measured, and σ ap 2 and the corresponding SSA to encompass the lower modelled MAC that is more consistent with accepted MAC values. Median values of the measured σap, rBC and the organic component of particles all increase by a factor of 1.8±0.1, going from near-surface to 750 hPa, and values higher than the surface persist to 600 hPa. Modelled BC, organics and σap agree with the near-surface measurements but do not reproduce the higher values observed between 900 and 600 hPa. The differences between modelled and observed optical properties follow the same trend as the differences between the modelled and observed concentrations of the carbonaceous components (black and organic). Model-observation discrepancies may be mostly due to the modelled ejection of biomass burning particles only into the boundary layer at the sources. For the assumption of the observed MAC value, the SSA range between 0.88 and 0.94, which is significantly lower than other recent estimates for the Arctic, in part reflecting the constraint of σsp<15 Mm -1 . The large uncertainties in measuring optical properties and BC, and the large differences between measured and modelled values here and in the literature, argue for improved measurements of BC and light absorption by BC and more vertical profiles of aerosol chemistry, microphysics and other optical properties in the Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Toward an improved nonlocal thermodynamic equilibrium model for more predictive simulations of ignition scale hohlraums

Recently, nonlocal thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) modeling has been identified as the primary reason for discrepant predictions of the peak neutron production time in indirectly driven inertial confinement fusion (ICF) platforms. It has also been observed that predictions of collisional excitation rates differ by as much as 50% from measurements. Theoretical uncertainties in dielectronic recombination rates have also been posited as possibly contributing to errors in NLTE predictions. This work examines the impact of multipliers on collisional excitation and dielectronic recombination rates on simulations of a directly driven gold sphere and an indirect drive ICF implosion. It is found that multipliers on the collisional excitation rates have a strong impact on radiant intensity and electron temperature and a weaker impact on ionization state, whereas multipliers on dielectronic recombinations rates strongly impact ionization state with a smaller impact on radiant intensity and electron temperature. A self-consistent NLTE model which places multipliers on differing transitions, as motivated by experimental measurements and more detailed atomic physics predictions, improves agreement but does not completely eliminate discrepancies with measurements of the radiant intensity within the 2–4 keV spectral range.

Farmer, W. A. [Lawrence Livermore National Laborat↗