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DOE OSTI2025

CRCNS22 Learning Rules in the Hippocampus and their Mapping to Neuromorphic Systems (Final Technical Report)

Large scale biologically-realistic computational models are key to investigating the interplay between structure and function in nervous systems, thus paving the way to new clinical methods and neuro-inspired computing solutions. This project focuses on the hippocampus, in particular the CA3-CA1 regions, due to their role in associative learning and memory, pattern separation and completion, and spatial navigation. Investigations into the neuronal organization and learning rule(s) of this circuit can shed light into how declarative memories are formed, stored, recalled and forgotten and inform computational, experimental and clinical neuroscience work. Our project aims at developing a novel data-driven methodology supported by a broad heterogeneous base of neuroscience experimental knowledge and inspired from advances in computer science and engineering. Specifically, this work will benchmark existing and new learning rules within a full-scale spiking neural network simulation of the CA3-CA1 region. The model will be based on an open-source repository, called the Hippocampome, which contains neuronal morphologies, firing patterns, synapse probabilities, and most other required parameters for all known neuron types in the rodent hippocampal formation. The model will be first trained in a supervised fashion for associative memory tasks using backpropagation through time traditionally used in computer science, enhanced with a new technique called the surrogate gradient method. This optimization method will be used to obtain a global loss minimization, but it is not biologically inspired as it assumes the use of data not locally available to the synapses. However, we propose its use as a benchmarking tool, to compare the training performance of local biologically plausible and hardware-mappable learning rules at scale. New rules or combinations will be proposed and tested as needed, based on the obtained results. Progress in this area will also drive the development of novel hardware-mappable algorithms for continual lifelong learning and categorization of new events from few presented examples. This project goes beyond the existing state-of-the-art by looking at large scale realistic neuronal circuits as networks trainable via global optimization methods such as surrogate gradient descent. The objective function of the brain that supports learning is largely unknown, but it is likely that it operates through local learning rules. Studying network trajectories around local minima as proposed in this work represents a useful strategy for understanding whether a network is training by using a specific (set of) learning rule(s). Starting from a completely untrained network is a challenging test since it is difficult to determine how the learning rule affects the trajectory of the network. This interdisciplinary project will help understand what rule governs learning in these regions or if multiple learning rules are involved. The work will develop a robust methodology to measure if the network is converging to the target solution, oscillating around it, or diverging away.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Flowability of Crumbler Rotary Shear Size-Reduced Granular Biomass: An Experiment-Informed Modeling Study on the Angle of Repose

Biomass has potential as a carbon-neutral alternative to petroleum for chemical and energy products. However, complete replacement of fossil fuel is contingent upon efficient processes to eliminate undesirable characteristics of biomass, e.g., low bulk density, variability, and storage-induced quality problems. Mechanical size reduction via comminution is a processing operation to engineer favorable biomass flowability in handling. Crumbler rotary shear mill has been empirically demonstrated to produce more uniformly shaped particles with higher flowability than hammermilled biomass. This study combines modeling and experimentation to unveil fundamental understandings of the relation between granular particle characteristics and biomass flow behavior, which elucidate underlying mechanisms and guide selection of critical processing parameters. For this purpose, the impact of critical material attributes, including particle size (2–6 mm), particle shape (briquette, chip, clumped-sphere, cube, etc.), and surface roughness, on the angle of repose (AOR) of milled pine chips were investigated using discrete element method (DEM) simulations. Forest Concepts Crumbler rotary shear system is used to produce milled pine particles within the same size range considered in DEM simulations. AOR of different sets of these particles were measured experimentally to benchmark DEM results against experimental data. Specific energy consumption for the comminution of biomass with different particle size and moisture content are measured for technoeconomic analysis. Our results show that the smaller size (2 mm) of pine particle achieves better followability (i.e., smaller AOR) while the energy cost of comminution is significantly higher and bulk density is almost the same as the 6-mm pine particles. For the 2-mm particle size, Crumbles from veneer have better flow properties than Crumbles from chips. Contrarily, no significant difference was observed between the AOR of the two materials for the 6-mm particle size. Furthermore, from DEM simulations, mechanical interlocking between particles was found as a dominant factor in determining AOR of complex-shaped particles such as milled pine, which cannot be accurately captured by using simple particle shapes (e.g., mono-sphere) with a rolling resistance model. Conversely, clumped-sphere model alleviates this limitation without increasing computational cost significantly and can be used for accurate representation of biomass granular particles when simulating free-flow behavior.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2022

A robust deep learning workflow to predict multiphase flow behavior during geological C O 2 sequestration injection and Post-Injection periods

Simulation of multiphase flow in porous media is essential to manage the geologic CO 2 sequestration (GCS) process, and physics-based simulation approaches usually take prohibitively high computational cost due to the nonlinearity of the coupled physics. This paper contributes to the development and evaluation of a deep learning workflow that accurately and efficiently predicts the temporal-spatial evolution of pressure and CO 2 plumes during injection and post-injection periods of GCS operations. Based on a Fourier Neural Operator, the deep learning workflow takes input variables or features including rock properties, well operational controls and time steps, and predicts the state variables of pressure and CO 2 saturation. To further improve the predictive fidelity, separate deep learning models are trained for CO 2 injection and post-injection periods due to the difference in primary driving force of fluid flow and transport during these two phases. We also explore different combinations of features to predict the state variables. We use a realistic example of CO 2 injection and storage in a 3D heterogeneous saline aquifer, and apply the deep learning workflow that is trained from physics-based simulation data and emulate the physics process. Through this numerical experiment, we demonstrate that using two separate deep learning models to distinguish post-injection from injection period generates the most accurate prediction of pressure, and a single deep learning model of the whole GCS process including the cumulative injection volume of CO 2 as a deep learning feature, leads to the most accurate prediction of CO 2 saturation. For the post-injection period, it is key to use cumulative CO 2 injection volume to inform the deep learning models about the total carbon storage when predicting either pressure or saturation. The deep learning workflow not only provides high predictive fidelity across temporal and spatial scales, but also offers a speedup of 250 times compared to full physics reservoir simulation, and thus will be a significant predictive tool for engineers to manage the long-term process of GCS.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

140,142 Ce Neutron Cross Section Resolved Resonance Region Evaluation

A resolved resonance region evaluation of 140,142 Ce was conducted by Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Requested by the US Nuclear Criticality Safety Program, this evaluation is based on recent high-resolution transmission and capture high-resolution measurements of nat Ce and 142 Ce conducted at JRC-Geel at the Geel Linear Accelerator facility. It is also based on recently measured thermal constants available from the EX FOR database. Starting from the resonance parameters from the ENDF/B-VIII.0 library and following a preliminary R-matrix analysis, an updated set of resonance parameters and corresponding covariance in formation was derived by the fit of these experimental datasets using the Reich–Moore approximation of the R-matrix theory, as implemented in the SAMMY code system. The resolved resonance region upper energy limit for 140 Ce was kept at 200 keV, whereas the 142 Ce resonance region was extended from 13 to 26 keV. This new evaluation was found to be in good agreement not only with several integral quantities of interest to the reactor physics community, but also with the stellar Maxwellian-averaged cross section.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2021

Predicting Intensive Care Unit Length of Stay and Mortality Using Patient Vital Signs: Machine Learning Model Development and Validation

Background: Patient monitoring is vital in all stages of care. In particular, intensive care unit (ICU) patient monitoring has the potential to reduce complications and morbidity, and to increase the quality of care by enabling hospitals to deliver higher-quality, cost-effective patient care, and improve the quality of medical services in the ICU. Objective: We here report the development and validation of ICU length of stay and mortality prediction models. The models will be used in an intelligent ICU patient monitoring module of an Intelligent Remote Patient Monitoring (IRPM) framework that monitors the health status of patients, and generates timely alerts, maneuver guidance, or reports when adverse medical conditions are predicted. Methods: We utilized the publicly available Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC) database to extract ICU stay data for adult patients to build two prediction models: one for mortality prediction and another for ICU length of stay. For the mortality model, we applied six commonly used machine learning (ML) binary classification algorithms for predicting the discharge status (survived or not). For the length of stay model, we applied the same six ML algorithms for binary classification using the median patient population ICU stay of 2.64 days. For the regression-based classification, we used two ML algorithms for predicting the number of days. We built two variations of each prediction model: one using 12 baseline demographic and vital sign features, and the other based on our proposed quantiles approach, in which we use 21 extra features engineered from the baseline vital sign features, including their modified means, standard deviations, and quantile percentages. Results: We could perform predictive modeling with minimal features while maintaining reasonable performance using the quantiles approach. The best accuracy achieved in the mortality model was approximately 89% using the random forest algorithm. The highest accuracy achieved in the length of stay model, based on the population median ICU stay (2.64 days), was approximately 65% using the random forest algorithm. Conclusions: The novelty in our approach is that we built models to predict ICU length of stay and mortality with reasonable accuracy based on a combination of ML and the quantiles approach that utilizes only vital signs available from the patient’s profile without the need to use any external features. This approach is based on feature engineering of the vital signs by including their modified means, standard deviations, and quantile percentages of the original features, which provided a richer dataset to achieve better predictive power in our models.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Can the United States Maintain Its Leadership in High-Performance Computing? - A report from the ASCAC Subcommittee on American Competitiveness and Innovation to the ASCR Office

The United States (U.S.) is no longer the unambiguous leader in the vitally important field of high performance computing (HPC). Japan, the European Union (EU), and China have fielded systems that are on par with our fastest supercomputers. The supply chain for everything from semiconductors to scientific software is globally distributed. Yet our economic future and security depend critically on our ability to innovate faster than our competitors, and the speed of innovation depends increasingly on large-scale computational science and engineering and thus HPC. How should the United States respond to this challenge? This report seeks to initiate a new and potentially transformative national discussion on this vital question. The Department of Energy’s (DOE) Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) program is well-positioned to make informed, targeted decisions about where the United States should cooperate and where it should compete in the global market for scientific exploration and discovery. By setting its sights on problems critical to our nation and the world, by establishing productive new collaborations, and by making strategic investments, ASCR can restore and maintain U.S. scientific leadership in the critical areas described in this report while strengthening our research infrastructure and training a large, diverse cohort of scientists. In doing so, ASCR and its scientists will pave the way for a secure and prosperous future for America. For more than 30 years, the ASCR program has provided the HPC and networking capabilities and expertise needed to support DOE’s mission to advance the national, economic, and energy security of the United States. The program now faces the challenge of developing and deploying the next generation of HPC systems and technologies, as well as supporting the application of HPC and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies to a wide range of scientific and engineering research problems. Through its research and development efforts, the ASCR program must also advance the state of the art in HPC and accelerate the pace of scientific discovery and technological innovation. Fulfilling this promise will require significantly increased investments, as well as innovative policies and programs. This subcommittee is aware that we are making recommendations and calls for action at a time when federal resources are limited. We understand that a wide range of competing priorities must be balanced by the nation’s leaders and that there is a need to leverage resources in new ways and seek efficiencies in facilities and operations. However, we must not let these realities limit our imagination or silence our advocacy. The ASCR program is a key part of the U.S. research infrastructure and an important component of economic growth and U.S. competitiveness. ASCR has a responsibility to pursue its mission, including advanced scientific computing, applications of AI technologies, and the required advanced research facilities, with determination and enthusiasm. To fulfill the scientific enterprise’s responsibility to the nation, the ASCR program must not only develop and publish a clear vision with an associated list of goals, priorities, and recommendations but also demonstrate scientific leadership by consistently securing long-term funding. This will allow the program to build on its achievements to date, to realize its ambitious vision, and to make lasting contributions to the field.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning-driven predictive resource management in complex science workflows

Here, the collaborative efforts of large communities in science experiments, often comprising thousands of global members, reflect a monumental commitment to exploration and discovery. Recently, advanced and complex data processing has gained increasing importance in science experiments. Data processing workflows typically consist of multiple intricate steps, and the precise specification of resource requirements is crucial for each step to allocate optimal resources for effective processing. Estimating resource requirements in advance is challenging due to a wide range of analysis scenarios, varying skill levels among community members, and the continuously increasing spectrum of computing options. One practical approach to mitigate these challenges involves initially processing a subset of each step to measure precise resource utilization from actual processing profiles before completing the entire step. While this two-staged approach enables processing on optimal resources for most of the workflow, it has drawbacks such as initial inaccuracies leading to potential failures and suboptimal resource usage, along with overhead from waiting for initial processing completion, which is critical for fast-turnaround analyses. In this context, our study introduces a novel pipeline of machine learning models within a comprehensive workflow management system, the Production and Distributed Analysis (PanDA) system. These models employ advanced machine learning techniques to predict key resource requirements, overcoming challenges posed by limited upfront knowledge of characteristics at each step. Accurate forecasts of resource requirements enable informed and proactive decision-making in workflow management, enhancing the efficiency of handling diverse, complex workflows across heterogeneous resources.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

5G Enabled Energy Innovation: Advanced Wireless Networks for Science (Workshop Report)

Rapidly expanding, new telecommunications infrastructure based on 5G technologies will disrupt and transform how we design, build, operate, and optimize scientific infrastructure and the experiments and services enabled by that infrastructure, from continental-scale sensor networks to centralized scientific user facilities, from intelligent Internet of Things devices to supercomputers. Concurrently, 5G will introduce, or exacerbate, challenges related to protecting infrastructure and associated scientific data as well as to fully leveraging opportunities related to expanded infrastructure scale and complexity. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science operates scientific infrastructure, supporting some of the nation’s most advanced intellectual discoveries, spanning the country and including 30 world-class user facilities from supercomputers to accelerators. Along with field experiments and remote observatories, every aspect of DOE’s scientific enterprise will be affected by 5G, which amounts to a complete renovation of the underpinnings of the nation’s information infrastructure. In this report we explore the scientific opportunities and new research challenges associated with 5G, ranging from scalability to heterogeneity to cybersecurity. The rapid commercial deployment of 5G opens the opportunity to rethink and reinvent DOE’s scientific infrastructure and experimentation, from intelligent sensor networks at unprecedented scales to a digital continuum of cyberinfrastructure spanning low-power sensors, high-performance computing embedded within and at the edge of the network, and DOE’s large-scale user instrument and computing facilities. New programming paradigms, workflow and data frameworks, and AI-based system design, operation, and autonomous adaptation and optimization will be necessary in order to exploit these new opportunities. Field deployments and centralized scientific instruments can also be revolutionized, moving (without traditional performance penalties) from wired to wireless connectivity for data and control systems, improving flexibility, and opening new sensing modalities, including the use of the 5G electromagnetic spectrum itself as an environmental probe. For DOE science, in contrast to commercial 5G applications and settings, devices will be deployed in extreme environments such as cryogenically cooled instrument control systems and in remote settings with harsh conditions, requiring the design of new materials for RF communication and edge processing to operate in these regimes. Concurrently, 5G infrastructure comprises both hardware and sophisticated software systems - currently closed and proprietary. The cybersecurity challenges to 5G-empowered reinvention mirror the complexity and variety of new 5G features, from virtualization to private network slices to ubiquitous access. Research is also needed in order to accelerate the development of secure and open 5G software infrastructure, reducing reliance on hardware and software produced outside the United States and providing the transparency and rigorous evaluation and testing afforded through open software. Twelve broad research thrusts are laid out in four chapters, with a companion fifth chapter (and three additional research thrusts) underscoring the needs and opportunities for an aggressive testbed program co-designed by networking experts and scientists involved in the 15 research thrusts. The urgency of undertaking this research is fueled by a global, accelerating deployment of new telecommunications infrastructure that is designed for entertainment and commercial applications - barely scratching the surface of what 5G can do to extend U.S. leadership in scientific discovery.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Using data-science approaches to unravel insights for enhanced transport of lithium ions in single-ion conducting polymer electrolyte

Solid polymer electrolytes have yet to achieve the an ionic conductivity > 1 mS/cm at room temperature for realistic applications. This target implies the need to reduce the effective energy barriers of ion transport in polymer electrolytes to around 20 kJ/mol. In this work, we combine information extracted from existing experimental results with theoretical calculations to provide insights into ion transport in single-ion conductors (SICs) with a focus on lithium ion SICs. Through the analysis of temperature-dependent ionic conductivity data obtained from the literature, we evaluate different methods of extracting energy barriers for lithium transport. The traditional Arrhenius fit to the temperature-dependent ionic conductivity data indicates that the Meyer-Neldel rule holds for SICs. However, the values of the fitting parameters remain unphysical. Our modified approach based on recent work (Macromolecules, 56, 15, 6051(2023)), which incorporates a fixed pre-exponential factor, reveals that the energy barriers exhibit temperature dependence over a wide range of temperatures. Using this approach, we identify a series of anions leading to the energy barriers less than 30 kJ/mol, which include trifluoromethane sulfonimide (TFSI), fluoromethane sulfonimide (FSI), and boron-based organic anions. In our efforts to design the next generation of anions, which can exhibit the energy barriers less than 20 kJ/mol, we focused on boron-containing SICs, and performed density functional theory (DFT) based calculations to connect the chemical structures via the binding energy of cation (lithium)-anion pairs with the experimentally derived effective energy barriers for ion transport. Not only have we identified a correlation between the binding energy and the energy barriers, but we also propose a strategy to design new boron-based anions by using the correlation. This combined approach involving experiments and theoretical calculations is capable of facilitating the identification of promising new anions, which can exhibit ionic conductivity $> 1$ mS/cm near room temperature, thereby expediting the development of novel superionic single-ion conducting polymer electrolytes. The published datasets include all the temperature-dependent ionic conductivity collected from the literature with literature DOIs, DFT calculated binding energies, and python scripts to analyze data, construct statistical models, and generate plots.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Imaging of Calibrated Defects in Additively Manufactured Materials: Pulsed Thermal Tomography Nondestructive Examination of Additively Manufactured Reactor Materials and Components

Additive manufacturing (AM, or 3D printing) for commercial nuclear energy applications is an emerging method for cost-efficient manufacturing aimed at replacing aging nuclear reactor parts and reducing costs for new construction. Known material flaws in AM include low-density regions consisting of non-sintered powder, which have to be detected to ensure the safety of long-term performance nuclear reactor components. Currently, limited options are available for nondestructive evaluation (NDE), either during or post manufacturing. As a solution to NDE of AM, we are developing pulsed thermal imaging which is non-contact, one-sided, and scalable to arbitrary size and shape of the AM parts. Pulsed thermography (PT) system utilizes a high intensity flash lamp to rapidly heat surface of sample, and a high sensitivity fast-frame megapixel infrared (IR) camera to capture data of surface temperature variations. The acquired data cube consists of a stack of surface temperature images taken at different times. Information about material internal defects is extracted by analyzing the data cube. This report provides results of preliminary performance evaluation of pulsed thermal imaging capability in detection of imprinted flaws in AM metallic structures. The flaws were introduced into AM parts as imprinted hemispherical low density regions, consisting of trapped un-sintered metallic powder. Specimens for developed for this study consisted of AM stainless steel 316 and Inconel 718 plates. The diameters of imprinted defects varied from 1mm to 8mm, and their depths below the plate flat surface varied between 1mm and 6mm. Pulsed thermal tomography (PTT) processes the measured data cube to obtain 3D reconstructions of material effusivity using a unique inversion algorithm developed at Argonne. PTT has been previously used in imaging of similar size flat bottom hole (FBH) simulated defects in stainless steel 316 and Inconel 718 specimens. In the study involving AM specimens, PTT imaging results have shown that 1mm-diameter defects located 1mm and 2mm below the surface of specimens were detectable. Larger size defects were detectable at greater depth. We also explored an alternative approach to detection of material flaws in PT data cube, which is using neural learning-based approach to blind source separation. Detection of small material defects requires finding features in the data cube which have signal contrast levels approaching sensitivity limit of IR camera. In this study, an optimized Neural Learning based Blind Source Separation (NLBSS) algorithm, including Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and Independent Component Analysis (ICA) is demonstrated to automatically extract principal temporal and spatial features of thermography frames to enhance flaw detection. By using the NLBSS algorithm, material internal defects can be automatically detected. Furthermore, this processing approach compensates for experimental thermal imaging artifacts, such as noise and uneven heating. By merging artificial intelligence with phtotothermics, the NDE system detects internal calibrated defects of various sizes and depths in AM nuclear-grade metallic alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Compare predictions of transient fission gas release by empirical and mechanistic models to experiments in high burnup UO 2 fuel

Understanding and predicting fuel performance at high burnup require improving our understanding of transient fission gas release. High-burnup operations enable new mechanisms of fission gas release, which affect fuel performance. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission has recently published its interpretation of existing fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal data in a research information letter. There, transient fission gas release was identified as one of the main factors that contributes to fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal, and therefore limits fuel extension to high burnup. However, transient fission gas release is a complex phenomenon that cannot be fully described by simple empirical descriptions. This report summarizes the development of a mechanistic model for high-burnup transient fission gas release in the fuel performance code BISON. This research was supported by the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program during fiscal year 2023 to improve our understanding of high-burnup transient fission gas release and ability to predict it as a function of operation history. To support the development of a mechanistic transient fission gas release model, the existing Simple Integrated Fission Gas Release and Swelling (Sifgrs) model in BISON has been completely refactored to make it more modular and extensible. This effort supports the model's application to high-burnup conditions, its extension to other fuel forms, and the continuous improvement of its current features. Once refactoring was completed, models for high-burnup structure formation, fission gas transfer from non-restructured fuel to high-burnup structure, high-burnup structure intragranular and intergranular fission gas behavior, high-burnup structure bubble evolution, fuel pulverization, and the resulting transient fission gas release were tested and implemented in the Simple Integrated Fission Gas Release and Swelling (Sifgrs) model or tightly coupled to it. The new mechanistic model was then compared to an empirical model developed in parallel by a Nuclear Energy University Program project using a Studsvik high-burnup loss-of-coolant-accident assessment case. Finally, the report details the preliminary BISON results for a benchmark activity organized by the Nuclear Energy Agency to evaluate fuel performance codes' predictive capabilities for burst fission gas release. This work represents an important step toward a mechanistic understanding of fission gas release in high-burnup conditions.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Autonomous System Subversion Tactics: Prototypes and Recommended Countermeasures

One of the fielding requirements for Advanced and Small Modular Reactors (AR/SMR) is the ability to support remote and autonomous operations. Autonomous Control Systems (ACS) are found on platforms such as Autonomous Space Vehicles, Cruise Missiles, and advanced driver-assistance systems. Each of these ACS implementations depends upon a set of decision support subsystems responsible for supporting Autonomous Mission Managers (names vary based upon field and author preferences). These Autonomous Mission Managers receive inputs from system sensors (e.g., LIDAR collection from an automobile travelling down a street; transients from a nuclear reactor), and perform a set of classifications (e.g., Red Traffic Light; Small Pedestrian at 10m; Load Rejection; Single Coolant Pump Trip), and then use these classifications in combination with recommendation algorithms to achieve platform goals (e.g., Stop the Vehicle at the Traffic Light, Avoid the Small Pedestrian; Trip the Reactor to prevent a Safety Event). The design, implementation, and fielding of an ACS capability will alter the cyber-attack surface such that existing risk management plans will need to be updated to include how to protect and defend against data-science and decision-support-system attack classes. These attack classes would include protection of the design and training environments where algorithm selection and testing and training data would be obvious attack vectors. These attack classes would also require an informed set of detection and response procedures to identify anomalous behaviors and document best practices for anomaly assessment and vulnerability mitigation and remediation. Last year we published a Cyber Threat Assessment Methodology for Autonomous and Remote Operations for AR/SMRs along with a companion publication on Cyber Attack and Defense Use Cases. The focus of the methodology was on describing and enumerating ACS processes, components, and functions such that security engineers could: evaluate subversion options against the target; identify threat actor attributes and capabilities derived from each subversion option; and identify security controls and response countermeasures. The Use Cases document offered detailed methodology examples including an assessment of a Military Base SMR, an Autonomous System Decision Loop, and implementation of AR/SMR Machine Learning algorithms. Our proposal at the end of last year was to focus on implementation of subversion prototypes related to the last Use Case area: AR/SMR Machine Learning (ML) Algorithms. We included six attack scenarios in our Use Cases paper: a Poisoning Attack against ML functions implemented using an FPGA; a Trojaning Attack against ML classifiers exploiting the excitability of Nuclear Engineers; a Backdooring Attack against ML Training environments to ensure persistence of an attack vector; a False Positive Evasion Attack against multi-factor Access Control Systems using clever inputs; an Inference Attack against ML models by an Insider with access to the Operational environment; and an Adversarial Reprogramming Attack against a Material Access Control Video Surveillance System. At the beginning of this year these six attack scenarios were provided to our research teams at Georgia Tech and Idaho State University and each team successfully implemented a subversion attack against a ML implementation to include transient misclassifications. While this is a notable outcome from this type of research, this paper offers the reader insight into not only how to structure and execute these types of attacks, but into the thought process behind how the researcher investigated the problem space, performed initial algorithm implementation, and the trial-and-error behind arriving at the successful subversion prototypes. We include in this paper a set of associated Scenarios on how these subversion prototypes could be implemented and an initial set of guidance for AR/SMR architects, Nuclear Regulators, and Cyber Defenders to implement awareness and defense capabilities into their current operational portfolios.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Measurement Uncertainty in One-Of-A-Kind Event Data Analysis

A golden standard in science is to repeat an experiment a statistically significant number of times, recording data using the same set of detectors and the same data analysis methodology. In such case experimental error includes both the range of true values generated by repetitions of the experiment, and measurement uncertainty caused by the detector. They are independent. It is a huge and too frequently used simplification, to assume that one can measure multiple repetitions of an identical experiment, resulting in identical true experimental value. Repetitions, as similar is it is experimentally achievable, have unavoidable built-in differences resulting in a range of the true values rather than in a single value. When modern, very sensitive and well calibrated measurement systems are used, this range is not negligible, and sometimes dominates over the measurement uncertainty. Range of true values depends on built-in differences in physics of the experiment. Stochastic physical processes result typically in a broader range of true values than non-stochastic processes do. Measurement uncertainty depends on a measurement method (properties of the detector not of the experiment). Modern measurement methods, including digital ones, frequently make the measurement uncertainty very small. When data from one–of –a kind experiment are analyzed, only the measurement uncertainty is reported. It provides no information about the range of true experimental values, neither about reliability of a reported data point. Reliability of a data point is in general independent from its measurement uncertainty. However, in practice reliable measurement methods frequently have high measurement uncertainty, while low reliability methods are applied to limit measurement uncertainty. Comparison of reliable data with high measurement uncertainty to not so reliable data measured with low uncertainty is discussed – in different scenarios different data analysis methods are applicable. Methods for data analysis from an experiment repeated statistically significant number of times are very well developed. They do not require a detailed expertise in physics of an experiment, nor in the properties of the measurement system used, and meaning of the reported uncertainty is well understood in any scientific community. It all changes when data from one-of-a-kind experiment is analyzed. Analyst’s expertise is required both in the physics of the experiment and in all aspects of the measurement system, all possible malfunctions. Data users must remember that only measurement uncertainty is reported from any one-of-a-kind experiment. Theory with simulations may provide estimation of expected built-in differences in the experiment, and by this of expected range of true values for a given experiment; yet measurement uncertainty can never be used in place of the range of true experimental values.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Learning continuous scattering length density profiles from neutron reflectivities using convolutional neural networks

Interpreting neutron reflectivity (NR) data using ad hoc multi-layer models and physics-based models provides information about spatially resolved neutron scattering length density (NSLD) profiles. Recent improvements in data acquisition systems have allowed acquiring thousands of NR curves in a couple of hours, which has led to a need for automated data analysis tools to interpret NR measurements in real-time. Here, we present a machine learning analysis workflow that uses a series of models, based on a convolutional neural network (CNN), to learn the relation between the NSLDs and the NRs, and subsequently produce continuous NSLD profiles directly from NRs. The usefulness of our CNN-based models is demonstrated by constructing NSLDs from NRs of several films containing homopolymer polyzwitterions and diblock copolymers mixed with different types of salts. Comparisons of the NSLDs with those constructed using ad hoc multi-layer models reveal a very good agreement, suggesting the potential of CNN-based models for real-time automated data analysis of NRs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

LandScan mosaic enables high-resolution gridded population estimates with explicit uncertainty

Gridded population datasets represent high-resolution distributions of human occupancy, enabling informed decision-making across a broad range of fields. These data products are valuable for assessing environmental risk, urban development, disaster preparedness and resource allocation—areas where accurate population estimates directly enhance policy effectiveness and optimize resource distribution. Despite the importance of gridded population datasets, traditional population modeling approaches often overlook inherent uncertainties in the estimation process. This limitation can create a false sense of certainty in population estimates, potentially leading to flawed decisions by those who rely on the data. To address this methodological gap, we introduce a probabilistic machine learning modeling framework, LandScan Mosaic, that explicitly incorporates uncertainty into the population modeling process. Our approach systematically quantifies uncertainty in three key modeling parameters of the LandScan HD gridded population dataset: building use types, floor counts, and occupancy rates. By employing Monte Carlo simulations, we propagate these uncertainties through the modeling process, yielding probability distributions of population counts in place of deterministic point estimates. We demonstrate the practical application of this framework in Iloilo City, Philippines, using structured decision-making techniques and our probabilistic estimates to identify and prioritize areas most affected by projected flooding, supporting targeted interventions that address both economic and social risks. In doing so, we propose a population-specific approach for incorporating confidence into structured decision making processes. Through a comparative analysis with conventional deterministic approaches and point estimate approaches, including LandScan HD and WorldPop, we evaluate how the incorporation of machine learning and uncertainty influences decision rankings. This research advances population distribution modeling by offering a robust, quantitative approach that explicitly accounts for uncertainty in the underlying data, along with guidance for how users can apply uncertainty in their decision-making.

Environmental sciences↗

DOE OSTI2026

Stakeholder-guided holistic, Adaptive Framework for enhancing community Energy Resilience (SAFER) (Final Technical Report)

The Stakeholder-guided holistic, Adaptive Framework for enhancing community Energy Resilience (SAFER) project advances resilience science and engineering by addressing challenges in rural Kansas communities where aging infrastructure, extreme weather, and socioeconomic disparities heighten vulnerability to energy disruptions. Traditional approaches often focus on technical performance while overlooking community concerns and priorities. SAFER responds by integrating community perspectives with advanced analytical frameworks to create a holistic model for measuring and improving resilience. Project objectives included developing novel resilience metrics, advancing modeling frameworks that capture interdependencies across infrastructures, and embedding community-centric indicators directly into planning processes for distributed energy resources. The key technical innovations included the creation of self-organizing map (SOM)-based indices for objective resilience quantification, hetero-functional graph theory (HFGT) models linking power, water, transportation, and community assets, and graph neural network (GNN) tools for identifying critical nodes in complex systems. Community-centric energy planning was demonstrated through optimal siting and sizing of (photovoltaic) PV and battery storage, ensuring resilience enhancements also addressed energy burden and energy insecurity. SAFER engaged community partners in Dodge City and Ford County through surveys, focus groups, and workshops, generating more than 600 responses that established baseline measures of energy burden, financial insecurity, and willingness-to-pay to avoid outages. This data, organized in terms of a community capitals framework, informed the development of weighted reliability indices that better reflect community costs than traditional utility metrics. SAFER’s GNN-based critical node identification framework identified expert-labelled critical nodes with over 99% accuracy, while also uncovering additional functionalities essential for proactive resilience planning. The project’s models demonstrated that optimal PV and storage deployment could improve resilience indices by over 11 percent, with dispatch strategies further enhancing outcomes, confirming both the technical effectiveness and economic feasibility of these approaches. Through its combined emphasis on rigorous modeling, community-focused planning, and community engagement, SAFER advances the state of resilience research while delivering direct benefits to rural communities. The project provides tools, guidelines, and resilience heatmaps that help utilities, local governments, and residents better anticipate disruptions, prioritize investments, and strengthen the capacity to withstand and recover from energy-related hazards. Furthermore, the developed HFG and GNN frameworks are designed for transferability, allowing them to be adapted for resilience planning in other communities with minimal retraining. This inductive learning capability provides a scalable pathway to extend the SAFER project’s impact. Thus, creating a foundation for a nationally applicable model of infrastructure resilience. Additionally, the HFG can also be extended to include other FEMA community lifelines.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Scaling microstructural processes in the sintering of ionic ceramics

A multi-scale framework, combining a multiphase field formulation and large deformation mechanics, was developed as a stepping stone to perform the data analytics of the microstructural level kinetics of a sintering solid. Relevant microstructural information from this framework, such as grain, stress, and porosity statistics, was scaled up to describe the macroscopic level sintering kinetics. Here, the developed formulation was applied to describe the electric field assisted sintering of Y 2 O 3 . Microstructural inhomogeneities in a multi-granular solid result in the formation of a field of compressive stress networks, which interleave with low compression and weakly tensile regions, defining a scaffolding for sintering concentration regions to develop. A Poisson effect-induced lateral stress network is also naturally self-induced as a result of the mechanical constraints imposed by the sintering apparatus. For long sintering times, localized shear stresses enhancing mass flow along grain boundaries and internal surfaces develop. Three-sided pores are removed by either vacancy transport to the surrounding pores, or move towards the external surfaces through grain boundary diffusion. Four- and higher order-sided pores stabilize because an equal amount of vacancies are gained and lost through the connecting grain boundaries. Grain dewetting contributes to pore coalescence, suggesting that pore kinetics and grain growth are coupled and should be analyzed in concert. The combined sintering and grain growth kinetics define six regimes of sintering behavior: (1) T, the transient regime; (2) E$_Υ$, the surface energy dominated, early sintering regime, where the grain growth exponent, p = 1, and the stress concentration factor, $f$ ~ $1/\hat{ρ}^{4.6}$; (3) E S , the stress dominated, early sintering regime, where p = 1 and $f$ ~ $1/\hat{ρ}^{4}$; (4) I$_Υ$, the surface energy dominated, intermediate sintering regime, where p = 2 and $f$ ~ $1/\hat{ρ}^{4.6}$; (5) I S , the stress dominated, intermediate sintering regime, where p = 2 and $f$ ~ $1/\hat{ρ}^{4}$; and (6) L, the late sintering regime, where p = 3 and $f$ ~ 1. At the macroscopic level, the rapid densification and suppression of grain growth observed in the electric field assisted sintering process is a consequence of the compounding effects of the underlying stress-, transport-, and interfacial-energy-induced energy minimization kinetics, as predicted by the multi-scale framework.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

An improved dataset for predicting mammal infecting viruses from genetic sequence information

There have been several attempts to develop machine learning (ML) models to identify human infecting viruses from their genomic sequences, with varying degrees of success. Direct comparison between models is problematic, because these models are typically trained and evaluated on different datasets with alternative data splitting schemes, features, and model performance metrics. In this paper we present a standardized dataset of mammal infecting and non-infecting viral pathogens, refined from the previous work of Mollentze et al. to include the latest literature evidence, roughly doubling the number of curated host-virus records available to the community, and new host target labels, primate and mammal. The new host labels were included for several reasons, including previous reports that classification performance is better at broader taxonomic ranks and the idea that there may be more data for primate infection that might serve as a suitable proxy for zoonotic potential and avoidance of false positives for human infection due to absence of evidence. On this dataset, we report the performance of eight machine learning models for predicting mammal-infecting viruses from their genomic sequences. We find that randomly assigning cases in our improved dataset to training/testing sets, when compared to the original assignments into training/testing in Mollentze et al., increases the overall average ROC AUC of prediction of human infection from 0.663 ± 0.070 to 0.784 ± 0.013, consistent with the reduction in phylogenetic distance between train and test sets (relative entropy change from 3.00 to 0.08). The broadest host category of mammal infection can be predicted most reliably at 0.850 ± 0.020. We share our improved dataset and code to enable standardized comparisons of machine learning methods to predict human host infections. Overall, we have presented preliminary evidence that classification of virus host infection is more tractable at higher taxonomic ranks, that unsurprisingly reducing the phylogenetic distance between training and test sets can improve predictive performance, that peptide kmer features appear to be harmful to out of sample model performance, and we are left with the question of whether models for virus host prediction can reasonably be expected to perform well in out of sample scenarios given the likelihood that viruses do not share a common ancestor. Consistent with this concern, when the data is resampled such that there is no overlap between viral families in training and test sets (relative entropy > 24), models perform no better than random chance at prediction of human infection regardless of whether kmers are included (ROC AUC 0.50 ± 0.08) or not (ROC AUC 0.50 ± 0.04).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗