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At least 685 records · Page 38

CEDAR Electrodynamics Thermosphere Ionosphere (ETI) Challenge for Systematic Assessment of Ionosphere/Thermosphere Models: NmF2, hmF2, and Vertical Drift Using Ground-Based Observations

Objective quantification of model performance based on metrics helps us evaluate the current state of space physics modeling capability, address differences among various modeling approaches, and track model improvements over time. The Coupling, Energetics, and Dynamics of Atmospheric Regions (CEDAR) Electrodynamics Thermosphere Ionosphere (ETI) Challenge was initiated in 2009 to assess accuracy of various ionosphere/thermosphere models in reproducing ionosphere and thermosphere parameters. A total of nine events and five physical parameters were selected to compare between model outputs and observations. The nine events included two strong and one moderate geomagnetic storm events from GEM Challenge events and three moderate storms and three quiet periods from the first half of the International Polar Year (IPY) campaign, which lasted for 2 years, from March 2007 to March 2009. The five physical parameters selected were NmF2 and hmF2 from ISRs and LEO satellites such as CHAMP and COSMIC, vertical drifts at Jicamarca, and electron and neutral densities along the track of the CHAMP satellite. For this study, four different metrics and up to 10 models were used. In this paper, we focus on preliminary results of the study using ground-based measurements, which include NmF2 and hmF2 from Incoherent Scatter Radars (ISRs), and vertical drifts at Jicamarca. The results show that the model performance strongly depends on the type of metrics used, and thus no model is ranked top for all used metrics. The analysis further indicates that performance of the model also varies with latitude and geomagnetic activity level.

Shim, J. S.↗

I/O Performance Characterization of Lustre and NASA Applications on Pleiades

In this paper we study the performance of the Lustre file system using five scientific and engineering applications representative of NASA workload on large-scale supercomputing systems such as NASA s Pleiades. In order to facilitate the collection of Lustre performance metrics, we have developed a software tool that exports a wide variety of client and server-side metrics using SGI's Performance Co-Pilot (PCP), and generates a human readable report on key metrics at the end of a batch job. These performance metrics are (a) amount of data read and written, (b) number of files opened and closed, and (c) remote procedure call (RPC) size distribution (4 KB to 1024 KB, in powers of 2) for I/O operations. RPC size distribution measures the efficiency of the Lustre client and can pinpoint problems such as small write sizes, disk fragmentation, etc. These extracted statistics are useful in determining the I/O pattern of the application and can assist in identifying possible improvements for users applications. Information on the number of file operations enables a scientist to optimize the I/O performance of their applications. Amount of I/O data helps users choose the optimal stripe size and stripe count to enhance I/O performance. In this paper, we demonstrate the usefulness of this tool on Pleiades for five production quality NASA scientific and engineering applications. We compare the latency of read and write operations under Lustre to that with NFS by tracing system calls and signals. We also investigate the read and write policies and study the effect of page cache size on I/O operations. We examine the performance impact of Lustre stripe size and stripe count along with performance evaluation of file per process and single shared file accessed by all the processes for NASA workload using parameterized IOR benchmark.

Saini, Subhash↗

NASA Software Engineering Benchmarking Study

To identify best practices for the improvement of software engineering on projects, NASA's Offices of Chief Engineer (OCE) and Safety and Mission Assurance (OSMA) formed a team led by Heather Rarick and Sally Godfrey to conduct this benchmarking study. The primary goals of the study are to identify best practices that: Improve the management and technical development of software intensive systems; Have a track record of successful deployment by aerospace industries, universities [including research and development (R&D) laboratories], and defense services, as well as NASA's own component Centers; and Identify candidate solutions for NASA's software issues. Beginning in the late fall of 2010, focus topics were chosen and interview questions were developed, based on the NASA top software challenges. Between February 2011 and November 2011, the Benchmark Team interviewed a total of 18 organizations, consisting of five NASA Centers, five industry organizations, four defense services organizations, and four university or university R and D laboratory organizations. A software assurance representative also participated in each of the interviews to focus on assurance and software safety best practices. Interviewees provided a wealth of information on each topic area that included: software policy, software acquisition, software assurance, testing, training, maintaining rigor in small projects, metrics, and use of the Capability Maturity Model Integration (CMMI) framework, as well as a number of special topics that came up in the discussions. NASA's software engineering practices compared favorably with the external organizations in most benchmark areas, but in every topic, there were ways in which NASA could improve its practices. Compared to defense services organizations and some of the industry organizations, one of NASA's notable weaknesses involved communication with contractors regarding its policies and requirements for acquired software. One of NASA's strengths was its software assurance practices, which seemed to rate well in comparison to the other organizational groups and also seemed to include a larger scope of activities. An unexpected benefit of the software benchmarking study was the identification of many opportunities for collaboration in areas including metrics, training, sharing of CMMI experiences and resources such as instructors and CMMI Lead Appraisers, and even sharing of assets such as documented processes. A further unexpected benefit of the study was the feedback on NASA practices that was received from some of the organizations interviewed. From that feedback, other potential areas where NASA could improve were highlighted, such as accuracy of software cost estimation and budgetary practices. The detailed report contains discussion of the practices noted in each of the topic areas, as well as a summary of observations and recommendations from each of the topic areas. The resulting 24 recommendations from the topic areas were then consolidated to eliminate duplication and culled into a set of 14 suggested actionable recommendations. This final set of actionable recommendations, listed below, are items that can be implemented to improve NASA's software engineering practices and to help address many of the items that were listed in the NASA top software engineering issues. 1. Develop and implement standard contract language for software procurements. 2. Advance accurate and trusted software cost estimates for both procured and in-house software and improve the capture of actual cost data to facilitate further improvements. 3. Establish a consistent set of objectives and expectations, specifically types of metrics at the Agency level, so key trends and models can be identified and used to continuously improve software processes and each software development effort. 4. Maintain the CMMI Maturity Level requirement for critical NASA projects and use CMMI to measure organizations developing software for NASA. 5.onsolidate, collect and, if needed, develop common processes principles and other assets across the Agency in order to provide more consistency in software development and acquisition practices and to reduce the overall cost of maintaining or increasing current NASA CMMI maturity levels. 6. Provide additional support for small projects that includes: (a) guidance for appropriate tailoring of requirements for small projects, (b) availability of suitable tools, including support tool set-up and training, and (c) training for small project personnel, assurance personnel and technical authorities on the acceptable options for tailoring requirements and performing assurance on small projects. 7. Develop software training classes for the more experienced software engineers using on-line training, videos, or small separate modules of training that can be accommodated as needed throughout a project. 8. Create guidelines to structure non-classroom training opportunities such as mentoring, peer reviews, lessons learned sessions, and on-the-job training. 9. Develop a set of predictive software defect data and a process for assessing software testing metric data against it. 10. Assess Agency-wide licenses for commonly used software tools. 11. Fill the knowledge gap in common software engineering practices for new hires and co-ops.12. Work through the Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) program with universities in strengthening education in the use of common software engineering practices and standards. 13. Follow up this benchmark study with a deeper look into what both internal and external organizations perceive as the scope of software assurance, the value they expect to obtain from it, and the shortcomings they experience in the current practice. 14. Continue interactions with external software engineering environment through collaborations, knowledge sharing, and benchmarking.

Rarick, Heather L.↗

Bending of Light in Modified Gravity at Large Distances

We discuss the bending of light in a recent model for gravity at large distances containing a Rindler type acceleration proposed by Grumiller. We consider the static, spherically symmetric metric with cosmological constant and Rindler-like term 2ar presented in this model, and we use the procedure by Rindler and Ishak. to obtain the bending angle of light in this metric. Earlier work on light bending in this model by Carloni, Grumiller, and Preis, using the method normally employed for asymptotically flat space-times, led to a conflicting result (caused by the Rindler-like term in the metric) of a bending angle that increases with the distance of closest approach r(sub 0) of the light ray from the centrally concentrated spherically symmetric matter distribution. However, when using the alternative approach for light bending in nonasymptotically flat space-times, we show that the linear Rindler-like term produces a small correction to the general relativistic result that is inversely proportional to r(sub 0). This will in turn affect the bounds on Rindler acceleration obtained earlier from light bending and casts doubts on the nature of the linear term 2ar in the metric

Grumiller↗

Global and Regional Temperature-change Potentials for Near-term Climate Forcers

We examine the climate effects of the emissions of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) from 4 continental regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia) using results from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model simulations. We address 3 aerosol species (sulphate, particulate organic matter and black carbon) and 4 ozone precursors (methane, reactive nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds and carbon monoxide). We calculate the global climate metrics: global warming potentials (GWPs) and global temperature change potentials (GTPs). For the aerosols these metrics are simply time-dependent scalings of the equilibrium radiative forcings. The GTPs decrease more rapidly with time than the GWPs. The aerosol forcings and hence climate metrics have only a modest dependence on emission region. The metrics for ozone precursors include the effects on the methane lifetime. The impacts via methane are particularly important for the 20 yr GTPs. Emissions of NOx and VOCs from South Asia have GWPs and GTPs of higher magnitude than from the other Northern Hemisphere regions. The analysis is further extended by examining the temperature-change impacts in 4 latitude bands, and calculating absolute regional temperature-change potentials (ARTPs). The latitudinal pattern of the temperature response does not directly follow the pattern of the diagnosed radiative forcing. We find that temperatures in the Arctic latitudes appear to be particularly sensitive to BC emissions from South Asia. The northern mid-latitude temperature response to northern mid-latitude emissions is approximately twice as large as the global average response for aerosol emission, and about 20-30% larger than the global average for methane, VOC and CO emissions.

North America↗

Validation of the 5th and 95th Percentile Hybrid III Anthropomorphic Test Device Finite Element Model

NASA spacecraft design requirements for occupant protection are a combination of the Brinkley criteria and injury metrics extracted from anthropomorphic test devices (ATD's). For the ATD injury metrics, the requirements specify the use of the 5th percentile female Hybrid III and the 95th percentile male Hybrid III. Furthermore, each of these ATD's is required to be fitted with an articulating pelvis and a straight spine. The articulating pelvis is necessary for the ATD to fit into spacecraft seats, while the straight spine is required as injury metrics for vertical accelerations are better defined for this configuration. The requirements require that physical testing be performed with both ATD's to demonstrate compliance. Before compliance testing can be conducted, extensive modeling and simulation are required to determine appropriate test conditions, simulate conditions not feasible for testing, and assess design features to better ensure compliance testing is successful. While finite element (FE) models are currently available for many of the physical ATD's, currently there are no complete models for either the 5th percentile female or the 95th percentile male Hybrid III with a straight spine and articulating pelvis. The purpose of this work is to assess the accuracy of the existing Livermore Software Technology Corporation's FE models of the 5th and 95th percentile ATD's. To perform this assessment, a series of tests will be performed at Wright Patterson Air Force Research Lab using their horizontal impact accelerator sled test facility. The ATD's will be placed in the Orion seat with a modified-advanced-crew-escape-system (MACES) pressure suit and helmet, and driven with loadings similar to what is expected for the actual Orion vehicle during landing, launch abort, and chute deployment. Test data will be compared to analytical predictions and modelling uncertainty factors will be determined for each injury metric. Additionally, the test data will be used to further improve the FE model, particularly in the areas of the ATD neck components, harness, and suit and helmet effects.

Lawrence, C.↗

A Linearized Model for Flicker and Contrast Thresholds at Various Retinal Illuminances

We previously proposed a flicker visibility metric for bright displays, based on psychophysical data collected at a high mean luminance. Here we extend the metric to other mean luminances. This extension relies on a linear relation between log sensitivity and critical fusion frequency, and a linear relation between critical fusion frequency and log retina lilluminance. Consistent with our previous metric, the extended flicker visibility metric is measured in just-noticeable differences (JNDs).

light adaptation↗

Assessing the Transferability of Statistical Predictive Models for Leaf Area Index Between Two Airborne Discrete Return LiDAR Sensor Designs Within Multiple Intensely Managed Loblolly Pine Forest Locations in the South-Eastern USA

Leaf area is an important forest structural variable which serves as the primary means of mass and energy exchange within vegetated ecosystems. The objective of the current study was to determine if leaf area index (LAI) could be estimated accurately and consistently in five intensively managed pine plantation forests using two multiple-return airborne LiDAR datasets. Field measurements of LAI were made using the LiCOR LAI2000 and LAI2200 instruments within 116 plots were established of varying size and within a variety of stand conditions (i.e. stand age, nutrient regime and stem density) in North Carolina and Virginia in 2008 and 2013. A number of common LiDAR return height and intensity distribution metrics were calculated (e.g. average return height), in addition to ten indices, with two additional variants, utilized in the surrounding literature which have been used to estimate LAI and fractional cover, were calculated from return heights and intensity, for each plot extent. Each of the indices was assessed for correlation with each other, and was used as independent variables in linear regression analysis with field LAI as the dependent variable. All LiDAR derived metrics were also entered into a forward stepwise linear regression. The results from each of the indices varied from an R2 of 0.33 (S.E. 0.87) to 0.89 (S.E. 0.36). Those indices calculated using ratios of all returns produced the strongest correlations, such as the Above and Below Ratio Index (ABRI) and Laser Penetration Index 1 (LPI1). The regression model produced from a combination of three metrics did not improve correlations greatly (R2 0.90; S.E. 0.35). The results indicate that LAI can be predicted over a range of intensively managed pine plantation forest environments accurately when using different LiDAR sensor designs. Those indices which incorporated counts of specific return numbers (e.g. first returns) or return intensity correlated poorly with field measurements. There were disparities between the number of different types of returns and intensity values when comparing the results from two LiDAR sensors, indicating that predictive models developed using such metrics are not transferable between datasets with different acquisition parameters. Each of the indices were significantly correlated with one another, with one exception (LAI proxy), in particular those indices calculated from all returns, which indicates similarities in information content for those indices. It can then be argued that LiDAR indices have reached a similar stage in development to those calculated from optical-spectral sensors, but which offer a number of advantages, such as the reduction or removal of saturation issues in areas of high biomass.

Sumnall, Matthew↗

Regime-Based Evaluation of Cloudiness in CMIP5 Models

The concept of Cloud Regimes (CRs) is used to develop a framework for evaluating the cloudiness of 12 fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models. Reference CRs come from existing global International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) weather states. The evaluation is made possible by the implementation in several CMIP5 models of the ISCCP simulator generating for each gridcell daily joint histograms of cloud optical thickness and cloud top pressure. Model performance is assessed with several metrics such as CR global cloud fraction (CF), CR relative frequency of occurrence (RFO), their product (long-term average total cloud amount [TCA]), cross-correlations of CR RFO maps, and a metric of resemblance between model and ISCCP CRs. In terms of CR global RFO, arguably the most fundamental metric, the models perform unsatisfactorily overall, except for CRs representing thick storm clouds. Because model CR CF is internally constrained by our method, RFO discrepancies yield also substantial TCA errors. Our findings support previous studies showing that CMIP5 models underestimate cloudiness. The multi-model mean performs well in matching observed RFO maps for many CRs, but is not the best for this or other metrics. When overall performance across all CRs is assessed, some models, despite their shortcomings, apparently outperform Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cloud observations evaluated against ISCCP as if they were another model output. Lastly, cloud simulation performance is contrasted with each model's equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) in order to gain insight on whether good cloud simulation pairs with particular values of this parameter.

cloud climatology↗

NASA'S Space Launch System: Progress Toward the Proving Ground

With significant and substantial progress being accomplished toward readying the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket for its first test flight, work is already also underway on preparations for the second flight – using an upgraded version of the vehicle – and beyond. Designed to support human missions into deep space, Space Launch System (SLS), is the most powerful human-rated launch vehicle the United States has ever undertaken, and together with the Orion spacecraft will support human exploration missions into the proving ground of cislunar space and ultimately to Mars. For its first flight, SLS will deliver a near-term heavy-lift capability for the nation with its 70-metric-ton Block 1 configuration. Each element of the vehicle now has flight hardware in production in support of the initial flight of the SLS, which will propel Orion around the moon and back. For its second flight, SLS will be upgraded to the more-capable Block 1B configuration. While the Block 1 configuration is capable of delivering more than 70 metric tons to low Earth orbit, the Block 1B vehicle will increase that capability to 105 metric tons. For that flight, the new configuration introduces two major new elements to the vehicle – an Exploration Upper Stage (EUS) that will be used for both ascent and in-space propulsion, and a Universal Stage Adapter (USA) that serves as a “payload bay” for the rocket, allowing the launch of large exploration systems along with the Orion spacecraft. Already, flight hardware is being prepared for the Block 1B vehicle. Beyond the second flight, additional upgrades will be made to the vehicle. The Block 1B vehicle will also be able to launch 8.4-meter-diameter payload fairings, larger than any previously flown, and the Spacecraft Payload Integration and Evolution (SPIE) Element will oversee development and production of those fairings. Ultimately, SLS will be evolved to a Block 2 configuration, which will replace the solid rocket boosters on the Block 1 and 1B vehicles with more powerful boosters, and will be capable of delivering at least 130 metric tons to LEO. The Block 2 vehicle will be capable of launching even larger 10-meter diameter fairings, which will enable human mission of Mars. With these fairings, the Block 1B and 2 configurations of SLS will also be enabling for a wide variety of other payloads. For robotic science probes to the outer solar system, for example, SLS can cut transit times to less than half that of currently available vehicles, producing earlier data return, enhancing iterative exploration, and reducing mission cost and risk. In the field of astrophysics, SLS’ high payload volume, in the form of payload fairings with a diameter of up to 10 meters, creates the opportunity for launch of large-aperture telescopes providing an unprecedented look at our universe, and offers the ability to conduct crewed servicing missions to observatories stationed at locations beyond low Earth orbit. This paper will provide a description of the SLS vehicle, and an overview of the vehicle’s capabilities and utilization potential.

Jackman, Angie↗

Navigating the Deployment and Downlink Tradespace for Earth Imaging Constellations

Distributed Spacecraft Missions (DSMs) are gaining momentum in their application to Earth Observation (EO) missions owing to their unique ability to increase observation sampling in spatial, spectral, angular and temporal dimensions simultaneously. DSM design includes a much larger number of variables than its monolithic counterpart, therefore, Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) has been often used for preliminary mission concept designs, to understand the trade-offs and interdependencies among the variables. MBSE models are complex because the various objectives a DSM is expected to achieve are almost always conflicting, non-linear and rarely analytical. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) is developing a pre-Phase A tool called Tradespace Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C) to initiate constellation mission design. The tool will allow users to explore the tradespace between various performance, cost and risk metrics (as a function of their science mission) and select Pareto optimal architectures that meet their requirements. This paper will describe the different types of constellations that TAT-C’s Tradespace Search Iterator is capable of enumerating (homogeneous Walker, heterogeneous Walker, precessing type, ad-hoc) and their impact on key performance metrics such as revisit statistics, time to global access and coverage. We will also discuss the ability to simulate phased deployment of the given constellations, as a function of launch availabilities and/or vehicle capability, and show the impact on performance. All performance metrics are calculated by the Data Reduction and Metric Computation module within TAT-C, which issues specific requests and processes results from the Orbit and Coverage module. Our TSI is also capable of generating tradespaces for downlinking imaging data from the constellation, based on permutations of available ground station networks - known (default) or customized (by the user). We will show the impact of changing ground station options for any given constellation, on data latency and required communication bandwidth, which in turn determines the responsiveness of the space system.

Nag, Sreeja↗

Scenario Complexity for Unmanned Aircraft System Traffic

This work introduces an approach to estimate the complexity of a low-altitude air traffic scenario involving multiple UASs using mathematical programming. Given a set of multi-point UAS flight trajectories, vehicle dynamics, and a conflict resolution algorithm, an abstract model is developed such that it can be solved quickly using a mathematical programming optimization software without running high-fidelity simulations that can be computationally expensive and may not suit real-time apA quick and accurate assessment of complexity for a given traffic scenario can help plan and schedule flights to alleviate traffic bottleneck and mitigate operation risks, especially for unmanned aerial system traffic management where high traffic density or complexity is expected. This work introduces a traffic scenario complexity metric that was constructed based on the number of potential conflicts weighted by the conflict resolution cost associated. The cost associated with a conflict is calculated based on the corresponding conflict resolution maneuvers. To obtain the conflict resolution maneuvers, a MILP-based optimization was formulated with the vehicle model and conflict management parameters incorporated. To evaluate the complexity metrics, an approach of using measurements from high-fidelity simulations was proposed. The scenario complexity measurements for 920 random-generated scenarios were obtained through high-fidelity simulations and treated as the ground truth. Two statistics methods: Pearson and Alternative Conditional Expectations were applied for analysis. The results showed that the number of flights has low correlation with the scenario complexity according to the correlation coefficients calculated by both methods. The Alternative Conditional Expectations method shows that the proposed scenario complexity metric has better correlation with the ground truth than the number of potential conflicts.plications. In the abstract model, each vehicle is represented by a time-varied vector associated with position, speed, and heading information. The total extra distance that aircraft need to divert from their original routes to avoid collisions is computed and used to setup a quadratic programming formula. The metrics including the number of conflicts and extra distances travelled by all vehicles are then utilized to estimate the complexity of a given UAS flight scenario. Results and verification against high-fidelity simulations will be provided in the final draft.

traffic complexity↗

Why Do Antarctic Ozone Recovery Trends Vary?

We use satellite ozone records and Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemistry transport model (CTM) simulations integrated with MERRA2 meteorology to identify a metric that accurately captures the trend in Antarctic ozone attributable to the decline in ozone depleting substances (ODSs). The GMI CTM Baseline simulation with realistically varying ODS levels closely matches observed interannual to decadal scale variations in Antarctic September ozone over the past 4 decades. The expected increase or recovery trend is obtained from the differences between the Baseline simulation and one with identical meteorology and fixed 1995 ODS levels. The differences show that vortex-averaged column O3 has the greatest sensitivity to ODS change from 1-20 Sep. The observed vortex-averaged column O3 during this period produces a trend consistent with the expected recovery attributable to ODS decline. Trends from dates after 20 Sep have smaller sensitivity to ODS decline and are more uncertain due to transport variability. Simulations show that the greatest decrease in O3 loss (i.e., recovery) occurs inside the vortex near the edge. The polar cap metrics have vortex size-dependent bias and do not consistently sample this region. Because the 60-90oS 220 DU O3 mass deficit (OMD) metric does not sample the edge region, its trend is lower than the expected trend; this is improved by area weighting. The 250 DU OMD metric samples more of the edge region, which increases its trend. Approximately 25% of the September Antarctic O3 increase is due to higher O3 levels in June prior to winter depletion.

Antarctic ozone↗

Impact of Airborne Radar Uncertainties on Detect-and-Avoid Systems’ Performance

Impact of sensor uncertainty on Detect-and-Avoid (DAA) systems’ performance is investigated. Key metrics analyzed are the loss of DAA well clear ratio, the near-mid-air-collision risk ratio, the alert ratio, and the number of maneuvers per loss of DAA well clear. Sensitivity of these metrics to the magnitude of sensor uncertainty, pilots’ selection of maneuver, and surveillance range is investigated. Benefits of a dynamic buffer around the DAA well clear separation boundary, computed based on track accuracies, are also analyzed. These metrics are computed from open- and closed-loop simulations of a large number of representative encounters between an unmanned aircraft system and a manned aircraft. Results show that sensor uncertainty degrades safety metrics considerably but has only a minor effect on the number of maneuvers per loss of DAA well clear. The number of maneuvers, nonetheless, can be reduced by a 5◦ buffer away from the edge of the range of conflict-resulting heading in pilots’ selection of maneuver.

UAS↗

NASA and Blue Origin Collaborative Assessment of Precision Landing Algorithms and Computing

NASA’s Safe and Precise Landing Integrated Capabilities Evolution (SPLICE) project is developing sensor, algorithm, and compute technologies for precision landing and hazard avoidance. These technologies are being tested as an integrated Precision Landing and Hazard Avoidance (PL&HA) system on Blue Origin’s New Shephard suborbital vehicle. A key goal for the computing element of this technology development is to characterize the performance of the SPLICE software workloads on the project’s Descent and Landing Computer (DLC). The DLC is a multi-core processor designed as a surrogate for NASA’s High-Performance Space Computer (HPSC). Measurements of the SPLICE workload performance on the DLC provides NASA insight on how PL&HA capabilities will perform on the HPSC, and guidance on how the SPLICE algorithms can be implemented to best utilize the DLC platform. This insight can also be used to derive requirements to guide trade studies on candidate computing architectures, for use on platforms like Blue Moon. NASA and Blue Origin are collaborating under an agreement to pursue this mutual benefit. Performance metrics collected are based on measurement of common compute resources such as percentage used of memory bandwidth, I/O utilization, interrupt latency, and kernel vs. user space code residency. Where possible existing performance counters and metrics that are part of the operating system kernel are used. As the design has a significant FPGA component, performance counters are identified and instantiated in the fabric to measure DMA performance and interface metrics. Collection of metrics is performed on the DLC with a representative workload that simulates a full landing cycle of the Blue Origin New Shepard vehicle. Consideration is given to the other compute implementations and whether they can run SPLICE algorithms at the same rate and with the same latency as the DLC. One option being considered is the use of a RISC-V soft core instantiated in a radiation resilient FPGA fabric such as the Xilinx KU60. Select algorithms from the SPLICE code will be run for comparison with the DLC. This paper describes how the DLC is instrumented to collect performance measurements of the SPLICE workloads, preliminary results from these measurements, and their implications on SPLICE algorithm implementation. The results of experimentation to derive candidate requirements for architecture trades on a PL&HA computing system are also presented.

computer performance↗

Interannual Variability in the Thermal Habitat of Alexandrium catenella in the Bay of Fundy and the Implications of Climate Change

Globally, harmful algal blooms (HABs) are an increasing problem. In the Gulf of Maine and Bay of Fundy, blooms of the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium catenella are annually recurrent phenomena. As this region is one of the most rapidly warming areas of the global ocean, an improved understanding of the mechanisms driving the initiation of local A. catenella blooms, their interannual variability and the implications of future climate change is critical to local monitoring strategies and marine resources management. A 27-year (1988–2014) time series of weekly A. catenella cell counts from the Bay of Fundy and concurrent satellite-measured sea surface temperature, freshwater discharge from the St. John River and wind-driven turbulence are compared to assess their relationship to variability in bloom phenology metrics. The mean thermal habitat associated with early detection of A. catenella is 6.5 ± 1.6°C, whereas that of bloom initiation averages 9.2 ± 1.5°C. Both thermal habitats for A. catenella are trending earlier over the study period. Bloom initiations that precede the arrival of the thermal habitat mean (occur in colder water) are associated with higher spring freshwater discharge and are generally weaker blooms. Increased spring freshwater discharge is also associated with earlier bloom initiation and earlier maximum concentration dates. No significant relationship was observed with the strength of wind-driven mixing. Removal of the mean thermal seasonal cycle shows that surface temperature anomalies have a strong negative relationship to the bloom phenology metrics and arrival of thermal habitat: warmer years are linked to earlier arrival of thermal habitats (∼12 days °C–1) and earlier detection and bloom initiation dates (∼33 days °C–1). Using these relationships and present trends in Bay of Fundy surface temperature warming over the period 1982–2019, we project the arrival dates of bloom thermal habitat and bloom phenology metrics out to the middle of this century. Based on current rates of sea surface temperature change, bloom phenology metrics (e.g., bloom initiation, early detection), can be expected to shift 1–2 months earlier in the season by mid-century. Such changes in the phenology of A. catenella blooms will need to be incorporated into both monitoring strategies and forecasting models for the region.

Andre F. Bucci↗

Development and Validation of an Empirical Ocean Color Algorithm with Uncertainties: A Case Study with the Particulate Backscattering Coefficient

We explored how algorithm (model) and in situ measurement (observation) uncertainties can effectively be incorporated into empirical ocean color model development and assessment. In this study we focused on methods for deriving the particulate backscattering coefficient at 555 nm, b(bp)(555)/(m). We developed a simple empirical algorithm for deriving b(bp)(555) as a function of a remote sensing reflectance line height (LH) metric. Model training was performed using a high-quality bio-optical dataset that contains coincident in situ measurements of the spectral remote sensing reflectances, R(rs)(λ)/(sr), and the spectral particulate backscattering coefficients, b(bp)(λ). The LH metric used is defined as the magnitude of Rrs(555) relative to a linear baseline drawn between R(rs)(490) and R(rs)(670). Using an independent validation dataset, we compared the skill of the LH-based model with two other models. We used contemporary validation metrics, including bias and mean absolute error (MAE), that were corrected for model and observation uncertainties. The results demonstrated that measurement uncertainties do indeed impact contemporary validation metrics such as mean bias and MAE. Zeta-scores and z-tests for overlapping confidence intervals were also explored as potential methods for assessing model skill.

ocean color↗

Practical Conceptual Design of Quieter Urban VTOL Aircraft

A toolchain and process for conceptual design of VTOL rotorcraft, employing low- and mid-fidelity tools is presented. The approach is capable of providing more quantitatively-credible trades between noise, size, and cost metrics than the methods commonly used for conceptual design. In addition to a general conceptual design tool, the approach employs comprehensive analysis for trim, blade motion, and airloads; these are then used by acoustic analysis software to develop source sound, propagate it, and calculate noise metrics. A key aspect of the approach is flexibility to assess varied aircraft types and different technologies and design features. Vehicles are sized using a representative Urban Air Mobility design mission. Demonstration cases are presented for a single main rotor helicopter, quadrotor, side-by-side helicopter, and lift+cruise aircraft. Noise metrics used for demonstration are the FAA/EASA certification Effective Perceived Noise Levels for takeoff, flyover, and approach. The concept aircraft in this study are shown to achieve reductions in noise relative the initial design points, with changes in mission performance and cost as a consequence. Many of the designs are predicted to be tens of EPNdB quieter in the certification metrics than existing helicopters.

Conceptual Design↗