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At least 685 records · Page 38

National forest timber bids and export price interlinkages in the USA: The bounds testing approach

We examine the interrelationships of national forest timber bid and log export prices for Douglas-fir (Region 6) in 2003–2021 and loblolly pine (Region 8) using time-series stationarity and bounds-testing approaches. The analysis shows the difference in time series properties across different geographies and time scales. Bid prices for these dominant species of timber in each of two Forest Service regions are found to be stationary, while log export prices for those same species appear to be non-stationary. Bounds testing conducted with autoregressive distributed lag modeling methods provides strong evidence for a cointegrating relationship between timber bid prices and log export prices in Forest Service Region 6. In Region 8, evidence for a cointegrating relationship was weak. Here, the share of salvage wood in national forest timber sales is a statistically significant control variable in all models estimated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

SoK: What does it Mean to Benchmark Database Forensics?

Relational Database Management Systems are the backbone of modern enterprises and public-sector services, and are thus frequent targets of security incidents, insider threats, and thorough regulatory audits. Consequently, databases have become key sources of digital evidence, requiring investigators to reconstruct past activity from audit logs, transaction logs, and backups. Although benchmarking frameworks such as those developed by the Transaction Processing Performance Council (TPC) are widely used to evaluate database performance, they do not capture forensic requirements such as evidentiary completeness, tamper-evidence, chain of custody, or regulatory compliance under GDPR and CCPA. This survey examines the emerging domain of forensic database benchmarking. We gathered prior research on database forensics, secure logging, and tamper-evident data structures; we analyze modern forensic-ready features in commercial and open-source systems (SQL Server Ledger, Oracle Blockchain Tables, PostgreSQL pgAudit, Db2 Audit, Aurora Database Activity Streams, Oracle Real Application Security and IBM Guardium) and assess why existing benchmarks are insufficient. We propose forensic workloads, metrics, and methodologies that incorporate adversarial stressors, deleted-record recovery, and backup analysis. We also identify open research problems and call for a community-driven forensic benchmark suite. The result is an idea for evaluating not only database performance but also forensic soundness, bridging the gap between system engineering, compliance, and digital investigations.

Lenard, Ben↗

Dissolution of nontronite in chloride brines and implications for the aqueous history of Mars

Increasing evidence suggests the presence of recent liquid water, including brines, on Mars. Brines have therefore likely impacted clay minerals such as the Fe-rich mineral nontronite found in martian ancient terrains. So to interpret these interactions, we conducted batch experiments to measure the apparent dissolution rate constant of nontronite at 25.0 °C at activities of water (aH 2 O) of 1.00 (0.01 M CaCl 2 or NaCl), 0.75 (saturated NaCl or 3.00 mol kg -1 CaCl 2 ), and 0.50 (5.00 mol kg -1 CaCl 2 ). Experiments at aH 2 O = 1.00 (0.01 M CaCl 2 ) were also conducted at 4.0 °C, 25.0 °C, and 45.0 °C to measure an apparent activation energy for the dissolution of nontronite. Apparent dissolution rate constants at 25.0 °C in CaCl 2 -containing solutions decrease with decreasing activity of water as follows: 1.18 × 10 -12 ± 9 × 10 -14 mol mineral m -2 s -1 (aH 2 O = 1.00) > 2.36 × 10 -13 ± 3.1 × 10 -14 mol mineral m -2 s -1 (aH 2 O = 0.75) > 2.05 × 10 -14 ± 2.9 × 10 -15 mol mineral m -2 s -1 (aH 2 O = 0.50). Similar results were observed at 25.0 °C in NaCl-containing solutions: 1.89 × 10 -12 ± 1 × 10 -13 mol mineral m -2 s -1 (aH 2 O = 1.00) > 1.98 × 10 -13 ± 2.3 × 10 -14 mol mineral m -2 s -1 (aH 2 O = 0.75). This decrease in apparent dissolution rate constants with decreasing activity of water follows a relationship of the form: log k diss = 3.70 ± 0.20 × aH 2 O - 15.49, where k diss is the apparent dissolution rate constant, and aH 2 O is the activity of water. The slope of this relationship (3.70 ± 0.20) is within uncertainty of that of other minerals where the relationship between dissolution rates and activity of water has been tested, including forsteritic olivine (log R = 3.27 ± 0.91 × aH 2 O - 11.00) and jarosite (log R = 3.85 ± 0.43 × aH 2 O - 12.84), where R is the mineral dissolution rate. This result allows prediction of mineral dissolution as a function of activity of water and suggests that with decreasing activity of water, mineral dissolution will decrease due to the role of water as a ligand in the reaction. Apparent dissolution rate constants in the dilute NaCl solution (1.89 × 10 -12 ± 1 × 10 -13 mol mineral m -2 s -1 ) are slightly greater than those in the dilute CaCl 2 solutions (1.18 × 10 -12 ± 9 × 10 -14 mol mineral m -2 s -1 ). We attribute this effect to the exchange of Na with Ca in the nontronite interlayer. An apparent activation energy of 54.6 ± 1.0 kJ/mol was calculated from apparent dissolution rate constants in dilute CaCl 2 -containing solutions at temperatures of 4.0 °C, 25.0 °C, and 45.0 °C: 2.33 × 10 -13 ± 1.3 × 10 -14 mol mineral m -2 s -1 (4.0 °C), 1.18 × 10 -12 ± 9 × 10 -14 mol mineral m -2 s -1 (25.0 °C), and 4.98 × 10 -12 ± 3.8 × 10 -13 mol mineral m -2 s -1 (45.0 °C). The greatly decreased dissolution of nontronite in brines and at low temperatures suggests that any martian nontronite found to be perceptibly weathered may have experienced very long periods of water–rock interaction with brines at the low temperatures prevalent on Mars, with important implications for the paleoclimate and long-term potential habitability of Mars.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NdPO 4 solubility and aqueous Neodymium speciation in supercritical fluids: An experimental study at 500–700 °C and 1.7 kbar

A key aspect in the formation of rare earth elements (REE) deposits is the role of REE transport as aqueous REE complexes in supercritical hydrothermal solutions, where the nature of the aqueous complex is controlled by solution composition, temperature and pressure. Despite chloride being considered as one of the most abundant transporting ligands in magmatic-hydrothermal fluids, experimental investigations on the stability of aqueous REE chloride complexes are scarce above 300 °C. In this study, synthetic NdPO 4 crystals were reacted with non-saline and saline (0, 0.05 and 0.5 mNaCl), acidic (0.01 mHCl) aqueous solutions in a series of solubility experiments conducted at 500–700 °C and 1.7 kbar, where the solubilities were determined using a stable Nd isotope ( 145 Nd isotope spike) dilution technique. NdPO 4 solubility ranges between 28 ppm and 10,858 ppm, where solubility increases with both temperature and salinity. At 500 °C, log mNdPO 4 increases from –3.93 to –1.60 and there is a strong correlation between NdPO 4 solubility and NaCl concentrations (slope of 1.2 ± 0.3), indicating stabilization of the Nd chloride aqueous complexes with a stoichiometry corresponding to NdCl 2+ . At 600 °C, this correlation is weaker (slope of 0.4, log mNdPO 4 increases from –2.63 to –1.88) indicating the stabilization of both Nd chloride and hydroxyl species controlling solubility. At 700 °C, NdPO 4 solubility is largely independent of NaCl concentration indicating that solubility is controlled by Nd hydroxyl complexes, where stoichiometry suggests the neutral Nd(OH) 3 0 species is dominant. The solubility product (Ksp) of NdPO4 is derived from experimental data with the relation: log K sp = -41.81 – 0.057T – 20987/T, with T temperature in Kelvin. Comparison of the measured Nd phosphate solubility to thermodynamic predictions using the available Helgeson-Kirkham-Flowers equation of state parameters for aqueous Nd complexes indicate that predictions are up to three orders of magnitude lower compared to experimental observations. This discrepancy is most pronounced in saline solutions, suggesting that thermodynamic properties of the REE chloride species in supercritical fluids require revision. Numerical simulations of fluid-rock interaction between acidic, saline fluids and a Strange Lake felsic mineral assemblage demonstrates that NdPO 4 solubility predictions from models are four to six orders of magnitude lower than those calculated based on empirical fits from experiments, which suggests that acidic, saline fluids may play an important role in mobilizing large amounts of light REE from 450 to 700 °C.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Listeria monocytogenes loss of cultivability on carrot is associated with the formation of mesosome-like structures

Raw carrot is known to have antimicrobial activity against Listeria monocytogenes, but the mechanism of action has not been fully elucidated. In this study, we examined carrot antilisterial activity against several strains of Listeria species (including L. grayi, L. innocua, L. seeligeri, and L. welshimeri) and L. monocytogenes. A representative strain of L. monocytogenes was subsequently used for further characterizing carrot antilisterial activity. Exposure to fresh-cut carrot for 15 min resulted in a similar loss of cultivability, ranging from 2.5 to 4.7 log units, across all Listeria strains evaluated. L. monocytogenes recovered from the fresh-cut surface of different raw carrots was 1.6 to 4.1 log lower than levels obtained from paired boiled carrot samples with abolished antilisterial activity. L. monocytogenes levels recovered from fresh-cut carrot were 2.8 to 3.1 log lower when enumerated by culture-dependent methods than by the culture-independent method of PMAxx-qPCR, a qPCR assay that is performed using DNA pre-treated to selectively sequester DNA from cells with injured membranes. These results suggested that L. monocytogenes loss of cultivability on fresh-cut carrot was not associated with a loss of L. monocytogenes cell membrane integrity and putative cell viability. Transmission electron microscopy imaging revealed that L. monocytogenes rapidly formed mesosome-like structures upon exposure to carrot fresh-cut surface but not upon exposure to boiled carrot surface, suggesting there may be an association between the formation of these mesosome-like structures and a loss of cultivability in L. monocytogenes. As a result, further research is necessary to conclude the causality of this association.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A rock physics and seismic reservoir characterization study of the Rock Springs Uplift, a carbon dioxide sequestration site in Southwestern Wyoming

We present a reservoir geophysics study, including rock physics modeling and seismic inversion, of a carbon dioxide sequestration site in Southwestern Wyoming, namely the Rock Springs Uplift, and build a petrophysical model for the potential injection reservoirs for carbon dioxide sequestration. Our objectives include the facies classification and the estimation of the spatial model of porosity and permeability for two sequestration targets of interest, the Madison Limestone and the Weber Sandstone. The available dataset includes a complete set of well logs at the location of the borehole available in the area, a set of 110 core samples, and a seismic survey acquired in the area around the well. The proposed study includes a formation evaluation analysis and facies classification at the well location, the calibration of a rock physics model to link petrophysical properties and elastic attributes using well log data and core samples, the elastic inversion of the pre-stack seismic data, and the estimation of the reservoir model of facies, porosity and permeability conditioned by seismic inverted elastic attributes and well log data. In particular, the rock physics relations are facies-dependent and include granular media equations for clean and shaley sandstone, and inclusion models for the dolomitized limestone. The permeability model has been computed by applying a facies-dependent porosity-permeability relation calibrated using core sample measurements. Finally, the study shows that both formations show good storage capabilities. The Madison Limestone includes a homogeneous layer of high-porosity high-permeability dolomite; the Weber Sandstone is characterized by a lower average porosity but the layer is thicker than the Madison Limestone.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

CO 2 -SCREEN tool: Application to the oriskany sandstone to estimate prospective CO 2 storage resource

Here, the ability to accurately predict the CO 2 storage resource in saline formations is important to make high-level, energy-related government policy and business decisions. CO 2 -SCREEN (Storage prospeCtive Resource Estimation Excel aNalysis) is a tool developed by the United States Department of Energy – National Energy Technology Laboratory (US-DOE-NETL) to screen saline formations for prospective CO 2 storage resources. CO 2 -SCREEN uses DOE methods and equations to serve as a consistent mechanism for calculating prospective CO 2 storage resources. CO 2 -SCREEN is comprised of two files: an Excel file used for inputs and outputs and a GoldSim Player file used to run Monte Carlo simulations. CO 2 -SCREEN requires input of physical geologic parameters (i.e. thickness, porosity) as well as efficiency factor ranges (i.e. net-to-gross thickness) to calculate a mass storage estimate. An application of CO 2 -SCREEN is demonstrated here using well log data from the Oriskany Sandstone portion in Pennsylvania. The Oriskany Sandstone is divided into 20 km x 20 km grid cells in which 151 cells contain well log data. CO 2 -SCREEN calculates prospective CO 2 storage resource for each grid cell based on the well log data and uses lithology and depositional environment information for efficiency factor ranges. The Oriskany Sandstone CO 2 storage resource estimate for Pennsylvania, calculated by CO 2 -SCREEN, ranges from 0.07 to 1.28 gigatons (Gt) with a P 50 value of 0.32 Gt. This resource assessment analysis is done to demonstrate the use of CO 2 -SCREEN and results are comparable to previous studies which encourages the application of CO 2 -SCREEN to other saline formations and warrants exploring the expansion of this tool to assess the CO 2 storage resource in other formations such as shale and depleted oil and gas reservoirs.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Assessing pore network heterogeneity across multiple scales to inform CO2 injection models

Geologic heterogeneity is a key feature that must be considered when translations of scaled data are performed. This paper presents the assessment of geologic heterogeneity using a multiscale workflow that includes image analysis-based methods coupled with well log analysis to provide data in which fractals and machine learning methods estimate the carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage resource potential of a reservoir. The heterogeneity of rock properties of the complex Bell Creek reservoir in Montana, USA, was explored at the pore scale (~nm to mm), core scale (~mm to m), and well scale (~cm to m). The data used in this study included advanced image analysis of micro-CT (computed tomography) images (pore scale), thin sections (pore scale), plugs and core images (core scale) and well logs (well scale). The micro-CT images were segmented using a U-net segmentation approach into objects of pores and grains. Further, the segmented images were reconstructed into subvolumes of different sizes. Physical properties (porosity and permeability) and fractal dimensions were calculated for the various subvolumes, and Lorenz coefficient (Lc) values, a single parameter to describe the degree of heterogeneity within a pay zone section, were calculated from thin-section images and well logs. Porosity and fractal dimension values were used to estimate the 188-µm threshold of representative elementary volume (REV) in this study. Both the Lc and fractal dimension values were found to be negatively correlated. When these two parameters are combined, it is possible to discern differences in the complex porous networks of the samples analyzed in this study.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Robust Intratumor Partitioning to Identify High-Risk Subregions in Lung Cancer: A Pilot Study

Purpose: To develop an intratumor partitioning framework for identifying high-risk subregions from {sup 18}F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) and computed tomography (CT) imaging and to test whether tumor burden associated with the high-risk subregions is prognostic of outcomes in lung cancer. Methods and Materials: In this institutional review board–approved retrospective study, we analyzed the pretreatment FDG-PET and CT scans of 44 lung cancer patients treated with radiation therapy. A novel, intratumor partitioning method was developed, based on a 2-stage clustering process: first at the patient level, each tumor was over-segmented into many superpixels by k-means clustering of integrated PET and CT images; next, tumor subregions were identified by merging previously defined superpixels via population-level hierarchical clustering. The volume associated with each of the subregions was evaluated using Kaplan-Meier analysis regarding its prognostic capability in predicting overall survival (OS) and out-of-field progression (OFP). Results: Three spatially distinct subregions were identified within each tumor that were highly robust to uncertainty in PET/CT co-registration. Among these, the volume of the most metabolically active and metabolically heterogeneous solid component of the tumor was predictive of OS and OFP on the entire cohort, with a concordance index or CI of 0.66-0.67. When restricting the analysis to patients with stage III disease (n=32), the same subregion achieved an even higher CI of 0.75 (hazard ratio 3.93, log-rank P=.002) for predicting OS, and a CI of 0.76 (hazard ratio 4.84, log-rank P=.002) for predicting OFP. In comparison, conventional imaging markers, including tumor volume, maximum standardized uptake value, and metabolic tumor volume using threshold of 50% standardized uptake value maximum, were not predictive of OS or OFP, with CI mostly below 0.60 (log-rank P>.05). Conclusion: We propose a robust intratumor partitioning method to identify clinically relevant, high-risk subregions in lung cancer. We envision that this approach will be applicable to identifying useful imaging biomarkers in many cancer types.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Spatial and temporal prediction of radiation dose rates near Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant

In this paper, we have developed a methodology to estimate the spatiotemporal distribution of radiation air dose rates around the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP). In our exploratory data analysis, we found that (1) the temporal evolution of dose rates is composed of a log-linear decay trend and fluctuations of air dose rates that are spatially correlated among adjacent monitoring posts; and (2) the slope of the log-linear environmental decay trend can be represented as a function of the apparent initial dose rates, coordinate position, land-use type, and soil type. From these observations, we first estimated the log-linear decay trend at each location based on these predictors, using the random forest method. We then developed a modified Kalman filter coupled with a Gaussian process model to estimate the dose-rate time series at a given location and time. We applied this method to the Fukushima evacuation zone (as of March 2017), which included 17 monitoring post locations (with monitoring datasets collected between 2014 and 2018) and generated a time series of dose-rate maps. Our results show that this approach allows us to produce accurate spatial and temporal predictions of radiation dose-rate maps using limited spatiotemporal measurements.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Pasteurization of shell eggs using radio frequency heating

The USDA-FSIS estimates that pasteurization of all shell eggs in the U.S. would reduce the annual number of illnesses by more than 110,000. However, less than 3% of shell eggs are commercially pasteurized. One of the main reasons for this is that the commercial hot water process requires as much as 60 min to complete. In the present study, a radio frequency (RF) apparatus was constructed, and a two-step process was developed that uses RF energy and hot water, to pasteurize eggs in less than half the time. In order to select an appropriate RF generator, the impedance of shell eggs was measured in the frequency range of 10–70 MHz. The power density within the egg was modeled to prevent potential hotspots. Escherichia coli (ATCC 35218) was inoculated in the yolk to approximately 7.5 log CFU/ml. The combination process first heated the egg in 35.0 °C water for 3.5 min using 60 MHz RF energy. This resulted in the yolk being preferentially heated to 61 °C. Then, the egg was heated for an additional 20 min with 56.7 °C water. This two-step process reduced the population of E. coli by 6.5 log. The total time for the process was 23.5 min. By contrast, processing for 60 min was required to reduce the E. coli by 6.6 log using just hot water. The novel RF pasteurization process presented in this study was considerably faster than the existing commercial process. As a result, this should lead to an increase in the percentage of eggs being pasteurized, as well as a reduction of foodborne illnesses.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Multiscale petrophysical characterization and flow unit classification of the Minnelusa eolian sandstones

Integration of petrophysical and geological information is critical to simulation of subsurface carbon storage (GCS). In this sense, two depositional facies were identified from the core description and well-log interpretation, namely massive (MS) and cross-bedded (CB) facies groups. Additionally, pore-scale characteristics were studied by a combination of techniques, e.g. Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) and mercury intrusion capillary pressure (MICP). Scanning electron microscope (SEM) and petrographic analyses show that the pore structure is dominantly controlled by the depositional environment and dolomite cementation. NMR-T 2 distributions of MS and CB facies show triple and quadruple modes, respectively. In addition, MICP of high- and low-permeability MS facies samples, and their CB facies group mixtures were collected. The MS sample pore-throat size distribution is uni-modal, while the triple-modal characteristic of the mixtures indicates heterogeneous pore structures at the sub-core scale for CB facies. The reliably estimates of porosity and permeability for both facies groups via NMR techniques and the MLR (Multiple Linear Regression) approach demonstrate the applicability of these techniques to eolian sandstone. Moreover, irreducible water saturation via the T 2 -cutoff method correlates strongly with T 2LM instead of porosity. Finally, the rock quality index and flow zone indicator were calculated based on Combinable Magnetic Resonance (CMR) log interpretations. This provides direct connection to properties measured in the well. Four flow units were classified for both facies groups. Finally, results show that better reservoir quality with significant heterogeneities is observed in the CB facies. This study highlights the importance integrating multiscale petrophysical properties including facies, pore architecture and diagenesis analysis with core- to log-scale property characterization. The results herein validate our reservoir characterization and flow unit classification in eolian reservoirs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A method to improve the sensitivity of neutron porosity measurement based on D-T source

Compensated porosity logging tool utilizing deuterium-tritium (D-T) source shows a lower sensitivity to the variation of formation porosity compared with that adopting Am-Be source. In order to improve the sensitivity, the factors of an infinite homogeneous formation influencing slowing-down length and the near to far counts ratio are analyzed in this paper. Then Monte Carlo simulation method is used to build well logging models to study the responses of a neutron porosity logging tool to hydrogen index and formation density. It shows that in addition to hydrogen index, the variation of the density also has a great impact on slowing-down length and the ratio which reduces the response sensitivity to porosity. A new model depicts the relationship between the count ratio and porosity is proposed. Finally, when the model is used to process the measured ratio, the ratio shows improved dynamic range and sensitivity to porosity compared with the values without processing.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

The crystal structure and electrical properties of K{sub 2}NiF{sub 4}-type (Ca{sub 2−x}Sm{sub x})MnO{sub 4}

Graphical abstract: The relationship between log ρ of K{sub 2}NiF{sub 4}-type (Ca{sub 2−x}Sm{sub x})MnO{sub 4} and 1000/T. - Highlights: • K{sub 2}NiF{sub 4}-type (Ca{sub 2−x}Sm{sub x})MnO{sub 4} was synthesized using a polymerized complex route. • The semiconductive samples had minimum values of ρ and E{sub a} at x = 0.1. • The log ρ–1/T curve of x = 0.3 consisted of two different lines at 315 K. • The 1/χ − T curve of x = 0.3 had a peak at 325 K. • These results indicated the presence of a charge-ordering transition at x = 0.3. - Abstract: K{sub 2}NiF{sub 4}-type (Ca{sub 2−x}Sm{sub x})MnO{sub 4} (0.02 ≤ x ≤ 0.3) was synthesized using a polymerized complex route. The crystal structure changed from tetragonal to orthorhombic at x = 0.3. A variation in the lattice parameters was explained by the Mn–O(2) distance, the Mn−O(2)−Mn angle, and the (Ca,Sm)–(Ca,Sm) distance. The samples were n-type semiconductors, and the minimum values of electrical resistivity (ρ) and an energy gap (E{sub g}) at x = 0.1 were accounted by electron transfer through an Mn−O(2)−Mn path and overlap between the Mnt{sub 2g} and Op{sub π} orbitals. In the sample (x = 0.3), the log ρ–1000/T curve consisted of two different lines that intersected at ca. 325 K, and a peak was observed at ca. 315 K in the magnetic susceptibility–temperature curve. These results indicated the presence of a charge-ordering (CO) transition at 315–325 K.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Secondary porosity prediction in complex carbonate reefs using 3D CT scan image analysis and machine learning

Development and preservation of carbonate porosity and permeability are critical to characterizing reservoirs. However, secondary porosity, such as vugs and fractures, are difficult to identify and require collection of expensive wireline tools or core sampling. Wireline logs and cores have traditionally been used to identify the presence of secondary porosity but fail to quantify the contribution to total reservoir porosity. Additionally, advanced wireline logs and core are not readily available for most wells. Dual energy CT scans were collected on whole core from the A-1 Carbonate and Brown Niagaran formations drawn from six wells in northern Michigan. 3D analysis techniques were applied to identify and isolate secondary porosity features. A series of machine learning and data analytics techniques were applied to the dataset to predict secondary porosity features on basic wireline logs. The predictive model successfully predicted secondary porosity with high confidence.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Oral prenylation inhibition with lonafarnib in chronic hepatitis D infection: a proof-of-concept randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase 2A trial

Background: Therapies for chronic hepatitis delta virus (HDV) infection are unsatisfactory. Prenylation is essential for HDV and inhibition abrogates HDV production in experimental models. Here, in a proof-of-concept study, we aimed to assess the effect on HDV RNA levels, safety, and tolerability of the prenylation inhibitor lonafarnib in patients with chronic delta hepatitis. Methods: In this phase 2A double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled study, patients aged 18 years or older with chronic HDV infection were randomly assigned (3:1 in group 1 and 2:1 in group 2) to receive lonafarnib 100 mg (group 1) or lonafarnib 200 mg (group 2) twice daily for 28 days with 6 months' follow-up. Participants were randomised by random-number tables blocked in groups of four without stratification. Both groups enrolled six treatment participants and two placebo participants. Group 1 placebo patients received open-label lonafarnib as group 2 participants. The primary therapeutic endpoint was a decrease in HDV RNA viral titre in serum and the primary safety endpoint was the ability to tolerate the drug at the prescribed dose for the full 4-week duration, defined as drug discontinuation due to intolerance or grade 3/4 adverse events. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01495585. Findings: Between Jan 19, 2012, and April 28, 2014, 14 patients were enrolled, of whom eight were assigned to group 1 and six were assigned to group 2. At day 28, compared with placebo, mean log HDV RNA declines from baseline were -0·73 log IU/mL in group 1 (95% CI 0·17–1·31; p=0·03) and -1·54 log IU/mL in group 2 (1·21–1·93; p<0·0001). Lonafarnib serum concentrations correlated with HDV RNA change (r 2 =0·78, p<0·0001). Model fits show that hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) remained stable after a short pharmacological delay (0·75 days [SE 0·24]), lonafarnib effectiveness in blocking HDV production was greater in group 2 than in group 1 (0·952 [SE 0·06] vs 0·739 [0·05], p<0·001), and the HDV half-life was 1·62 days (0·07). There was no evidence of virological resistance. Adverse events were mainly mild to moderate with group 1 patients experiencing diarrhoea in three patients (50%) and nausea in two patients (33%) and in group 2 with all patients (100%) experiencing nausea, diarrhoea, abdominal bloating, and weight loss greater than 2 kg (mean of 4 kg). No treatment discontinuations occurred in any treatment groups. Interpretation: Treatment of chronic HDV with lonafarnib significantly reduces virus levels. The decline in virus levels significantly correlated with serum drug levels, providing further evidence for the efficacy of prenylation inhibition in chronic HDV.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

3-D Geological Modeling for Numerical Flow Simulation Studies of Gas Hydrate Reservoirs at the Kuparuk State 7-11-12 Pad in the Prudhoe Bay Unit on the Alaska North Slope

Accurate reservoir evaluation requires reliable three-dimensional (3-D) geological models. Here, this study conducted 3-D geological modeling for numerical flow simulation of the B1 sand gas hydrate reservoir at the Kuparuk State 7-11-12 pad, Prudhoe Bay Unit, Alaska North Slope. The model integrates well logs, core, and seismic data to address spatial heterogeneity in geological structures and reservoir properties. Two modeling types were performed: structural framework modeling and petrophysical property modeling. For structural framework modeling, seismic data and well log markers were used to reproduce subsurface structures characterized by a normal fault system. A volume-based modeling algorithm and stair-stepping grid were applied. The resulting 3-D model comprised 2,640,000 grid cells across 264 layers, including seven fault grids. For petrophysical property modeling, total porosity was initially modeled using sequential Gaussian simulation with collocated cokriging. To reproduce the upward coarsening of the B1 sand, upscaled log-derived total porosity and a three-dimensional (3-D) trend depicting total porosity variation were used as primary and secondary data, respectively. Gas hydrate saturation distribution was modeled similarly, with secondary data from estimated porosity distribution and seismic-derived acoustic impedance map enhancing accuracy. Results indicate higher gas hydrate saturation in the upper part of the B1 sand and areas with higher acoustic impedance. Intrinsic permeability was modeled from the total porosity and clay-bound water volume, and effective permeability was derived from the gas hydrate saturation and intrinsic permeability distributions based on the “Tokyo model”. Effective permeability distributions were influenced by the total porosity, gas hydrate saturation, and intrinsic permeability. Within the same layer, higher gas hydrate saturation leads to decreased effective permeability. In total, 100 sets of multiple scenarios were prepared, providing input data for dynamic flow simulations to evaluate the effects of lateral heterogeneity in reservoir properties and the hydraulic characteristics of faults on production behavior for preassessment before the long-term production test.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Volatility and Viscosity Are Correlated in Terpene Secondary Organic Aerosol Formed in a Flow Reactor

Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) is a complex mixture of largely unspeciated compounds. Volatility and viscosity of the bulk organic aerosol influence new particle formation, processing, and lifetime in the atmosphere. Relationships between these properties are well-defined for pure compounds, but currently unavailable for bulk organic aerosol. In this survey study, we characterized SOA formed from a range of biogenic precursors and conditions in an oxidation flow reactor for volatility (thermodenuder), viscosity (dimer coagulation, isolation, and coalescence), and oxidation state (aerosol chemical speciation monitor). We find linear trends in log-linear and log-log plots of single-parameter representations of volatility and viscosity, with higher condensed phase fractions of extremely low and low volatility material associated with increased viscosity (R=0.69). Per this relationship, a 10% increase in the contribution of these fractions (i.e., lower volatility) results in an increase in viscosity of approximately 200%. The viscosity (at 30°C) of SOA fell between $6.2 × 10^5$ to $8.0 × 10^8$ Pa s, and thus in the semi-solid range. SOA oxidation state ranged from -1.0 and 0.1, and was weakly anti-correlated with volatility (but not viscosity). We found larger SOA mass loadings generally associated with increased volatility and decreased viscosity. Overall, the results of this preliminary study are consistent with “molecular corridor”-style frameworks employing molecular mass and volatility to estimate viscosity to bulk real-world SOA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗