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DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning-enhanced hybrid modeling approach for better identification of a building thermal network model and improved prediction

The gray-box modeling approach, which uses a semi-physical thermal network model, has been widely used in building prediction applications, such as model predictive control (MPC). However, unmeasured disturbances, such as occupants, lighting, and in/exfiltration loads, make it challenging to apply this approach to practical buildings. In this word, we propose a hybrid modeling approach that integrates the gray-box model with a model for unmeasured disturbance. After reviewing several system identification approaches, we systematically designed the unmeasured disturbance model with a model selection process based on statistical tests to make it robust. We generated data based on the building model calibrated by real operational data and then trained the hybrid model for two different weather conditions. The hybrid model approach demonstrates an RMSE reduction of approximately 0.2–0.9 °C and 0.3–2 °C on 1-day ahead temperature prediction compared to the Conventional approach for mild (Berkeley, CA) and cold (Chicago, IL) climates, respectively. In addition, this approach was applied to experimental data obtained from the laboratory building to be used for the MPC application, showing superior prediction performances.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Knowledge-Informed Uncertainty-Aware Machine Learning for Time Series Forecasting of Dynamical Engineered Systems

The high complexity and multiscale nature of many engineered systems—such as those in nuclear power plants—make representing and forecasting their dynamic behavior challenging. Physics-based models can be overly complex and computationally intractable, whereas machine learning (ML) tools are often data-hungry and prone to unphysical solutions. This study proposes a knowledge-informed ML-aided hybrid residual modeling approach that offers accurate and efficient time series forecasting for the operation of dynamical engineered systems. Hybrid residual modeling entails a baseline solution from domain knowledge and known physics expressions about the system dynamics integrated with an ML model to capture undiscovered information from the mismatch (i.e., residuals) between true states from measurements and baseline-predicted outputs. This study further quantifies the ML model uncertainty to provide trustworthy solutions. Real-time operational data from thermal-hydraulic flow loops of the cryogenic moderator system in Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Spallation Neutron Source facility were used to demonstrate the potential of knowledge-informed uncertainty-aware ML in real-world applications. The state variables of the cryogenic helium loop were modeled with (1) first principles–based system identification (sysID), (2) long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network, and (3) hybrid sysID (baseline) + LSTM (residual). The superior predictive capability of the sysID+LSTM model versus stand-alone sysID and LSTM is confirmed by average performance metrics and individual data points across different prediction horizons. By creating a robust representation of the underlying physical system, the widely applicable hybrid residual modeling approach will enable the future development of digital twins for performance prediction, prognostics, and operation control.

Zhao, Xingang↗

NASA NTRS2008

Closing the Certification Gaps in Adaptive Flight Control Software

Over the last five decades, extensive research has been performed to design and develop adaptive control systems for aerospace systems and other applications where the capability to change controller behavior at different operating conditions is highly desirable. Although adaptive flight control has been partially implemented through the use of gain-scheduled control, truly adaptive control systems using learning algorithms and on-line system identification methods have not seen commercial deployment. The reason is that the certification process for adaptive flight control software for use in national air space has not yet been decided. The purpose of this paper is to examine the gaps between the state-of-the-art methodologies used to certify conventional (i.e., non-adaptive) flight control system software and what will likely to be needed to satisfy FAA airworthiness requirements. These gaps include the lack of a certification plan or process guide, the need to develop verification and validation tools and methodologies to analyze adaptive controller stability and convergence, as well as the development of metrics to evaluate adaptive controller performance at off-nominal flight conditions. This paper presents the major certification gap areas, a description of the current state of the verification methodologies, and what further research efforts will likely be needed to close the gaps remaining in current certification practices. It is envisioned that closing the gap will require certain advances in simulation methods, comprehensive methods to determine learning algorithm stability and convergence rates, the development of performance metrics for adaptive controllers, the application of formal software assurance methods, the application of on-line software monitoring tools for adaptive controller health assessment, and the development of a certification case for adaptive system safety of flight.

Jacklin, Stephen A.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Feasibility study of an orbiting laboratory for testing CSI technology

A concept for an orbiting laboratory for testing Controls-Structures Integration (CSI) technology is described. The CSI-Star concept reflects a lower cost, higher risk approach. The concept supports demonstration and validation testing for critical CSI technologies at a cost of $20M to $26M with a 1-year reliability of approximately 0.9. The Ball Aerospace QuickStar bus is the carrier for the CSI test article. QuickStar is launched as a secondary payload on the McDonnell Douglas Delta 2. The QuickStar/Delta 2 approach is flight proven. The CSI test article is a 20 foot, 1 Hz, truss beam which is deployed from the QuickStar bus. The test article is well instrumented for quality system identification. The laboratory provides three layers of active control consisting of global vibration suppression along the truss beam, vibration isolation between the beam and instrument platforms, and vibration compensation through the use of gimbaled platforms which point lasers relative to optical sensor targets. The configuration simulates the dynamics of multi-instrument science platforms such as those of the Earth Observation System (EOS) while maintaining strong ties to astrophysics missions such as the Optical Interferometer. Uplink/downlink services and a reprogrammable computer provide flexibility for long-term investigations by members of the CSI community (NASA, DoD, academia, and industry). CSI-Star fills the gap between short-term experiments, which have been conducted primarily on the Shuttle, and future science missions which require the technology. The on-orbit maturity of CSI technology must be established to obtain acceptance by project managers and to promote injection of the technology into future science missions.

Bicos, Andrew S.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Bilinear dynamic mode decomposition for quantum control

Abstract Data-driven methods for establishing quantum optimal control (QOC) using time-dependent control pulses tailored to specific quantum dynamical systems and desired control objectives are critical for many emerging quantum technologies. We develop a data-driven regression procedure, bilinear dynamic mode decomposition (biDMD), that leverages time-series measurements to establish quantum system identification for QOC. The biDMD optimization framework is a physics-informed regression that makes use of the known underlying Hamiltonian structure. Further, the biDMD can be modified to model both fast and slow sampling of control signals, the latter by way of stroboscopic sampling strategies. The biDMD method provides a flexible, interpretable, and adaptive regression framework for real-time, online implementation in quantum systems. Further, the method has strong theoretical connections to Koopman theory, which approximates nonlinear dynamics with linear operators. In comparison with many machine learning paradigms minimal data is needed to construct a biDMD model, and the model is easily updated as new data is collected. We demonstrate the efficacy and performance of the approach on a number of representative quantum systems, showing that it also matches experimental results.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

The CLAS12 Forward Time-of-Flight system

The Forward Time-of-Flight system for the large-acceptance CLAS12 spectrometer in Hall B at the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility is described. The system is positioned at distances in the range from 6.2 m to 7.2 m from the beam–target interaction point and spans laboratory polar angles from 5 deg → 45 deg and nearly the full azimuth. The system consists of 540 individual scintillation counters with double-ended readout that range in length from 17 cm to 426 cm of discrete widths of 6 cm, 15 cm, and 22 cm, and of discrete thicknesses of 5 cm and 6 cm. We see the effective counter time resolution for passing charged particles varies from 50 ps for the shortest counters at small angles to 200 ps for the longest counters at large angles. The detectors are part of the forward-angle particle identification system for CLAS12 during offline event reconstruction and are a component of the online data acquisition trigger to select final state event topologies with forward-going charged particles.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2022

Design of a supervisory control system for autonomous operation of advanced reactors

Advanced reactors to be deployed in the coming decades will face deregulated energy markets, and may adopt flexible operation to boost profitability. To aid in the transition from baseload to flexible operation paradigm, autonomous operation is sought. This work focuses on the control aspect of autonomous operation. Specifically, a hierarchical control system is designed to support constraint enforcement during routine operational transients. Within the system, data-driven modeling, physics-based state observation, and classical control algorithms are integrated to provide an adaptable and robust solution. A 320 MW Fluoride-cooled High-temperature Pebble-bed Reactor is the design basis for demonstrating the proposed control system. The hierarchical control system consists of a supervisory layer and low-level layer. The supervisory layer receives requests to change the system's operating conditions (e.g., the current reactor power to meet a load -follow), and accepts or rejects them based on constraints that have been assigned. Constraints are issued to keep the plant within an optimal operating region. The low-level layer interfaces with the actuators of the system to fulfill requested changes, while maintaining tracking and regulation duties. Further, to accept requests at the supervisory layer, the Reference Governor algorithm was adopted. To model the dynamics of the reactor, a system identification algorithm, Dynamic Mode Decomposition, was utilized. To estimate the evolution of process variables that cannot be directly measured (e.g., the propagation of delayed neutron precursors), the Unscented Kalman Filter, incorporating a nonlinear model of nuclear dynamics, was adopted. The composition of these algorithms led to a numerical demonstration of constraint enforcement during a 40% power drop transient (at a rate of 5 %/min). Uncontrolled secondary-side temperatures were successfully constrained. Adaptability of the proposed system was demonstrated by modifying the constraint values, and enforcing them during the transient. Robustness was also demonstrated by enforcing constraints under noisy environments.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2014

Robustness analysis of an air heating plant and control law by using polynomial chaos

This paper presents a robustness analysis of an air heating plant with a multivariable closed-loop control law by using the polynomial chaos methodology (MPC). The plant consists of a PVC tube with a fan in the air input (that forces the air through the tube) and a mass flux sensor in the output. A heating resistance warms the air as it flows inside the tube, and a thermo-couple sensor measures the air temperature. The plant has thus two inputs (the fan's rotation intensity and heat generated by the resistance, both measured in percent of the maximum value) and two outputs (air temperature and air mass flux, also in percent of the maximal value). The mathematical model is obtained by System Identification techniques. The mass flux sensor, which is nonlinear, is linearized and the delays in the transfer functions are properly approximated by non-minimum phase transfer functions. The resulting model is transformed to a state-space model, which is used for control design purposes. The multivariable robust control design techniques used is the LQG/LTR, and the controllers are validated in simulation software and in the real plant. Finally, the MPC is applied by considering some of the system's parameters as random variables (one at a time, and the system's stochastic differential equations are solved by expanding the solution (a stochastic process) in an orthogonal basis of polynomial functions of the basic random variables. This method transforms the stochastic equations in a set of deterministic differential equations, which can be solved by traditional numerical methods (That is the MPC). Statistical data for the system (like expected values and variances) are then calculated. The effects of randomness in the parameters are evaluated in the open-loop and closed-loop pole's positions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

NASA NTRS1991

On-orbit damage detection and health monitoring of large space trusses - Status and critical issues

The literature in the fields of structural identification, mode shape expansion and orthogonalization, and on-orbit damage location of large space trusses is reviewed. The use of a Dynamic Scale Model Technology (DSMT) hybrid scale model for damage location research and as a universal test bed for other damage location methods is proposed as a means of comparing and evaluating existing and newly developed methods in the named areas. Issues concerning on-orbit data acquisition, data accuracy, and data quality relevant to structural dynamic system identification which require extensive research are identified.

Kashangaki, Thomas A.-L.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Toward Real Time Neural Net Flight Controllers

NASA Ames Research Center has an ongoing program in neural network control technology targeted toward real time flight demonstrations using a modified F-15 which permits direct inner loop control of actuators, rapid switching between alternative control designs, and substitutable processors. An important part of this program is the ACTIVE flight project which is examining the feasibility of using neural networks in the design, control, and system identification of new aircraft prototypes. This paper discusses two research applications initiated with this objective in mind: utilization of neural networks for wind tunnel aircraft model identification and rapid learning algorithms for on line reconfiguration and control. The first application involves the identification of aerodynamic flight characteristics from analysis of wind tunnel test data. This identification is important in the early stages of aircraft design because complete specification of control architecture's may not be possible even though concept models at varying scales are available for aerodynamic wind tunnel testing. Testing of this type is often a long and expensive process involving measurement of aircraft lift, drag, and moment of inertia at varying angles of attack and control surface configurations. This information in turn can be used in the design of the flight control systems by applying the derived lookup tables to generate piece wise linearized controllers. Thus, reduced costs in tunnel test times and the rapid transfer of wind tunnel insights into prototype controllers becomes an important factor in more efficient generation and testing of new flight systems. NASA Ames Research Center is successfully applying modular neural networks as one way of anticipating small scale aircraft model performances prior to testing, thus reducing the number of in tunnel test hours and potentially, the number of intermediate scaled models required for estimation of surface flow effects.

Jorgensen, C. C.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Identification of multiple eigenmode growth rates towards real time detection in DIII-D and KSTAR tokamak plasmas

Abstract The successful application of three-dimensional (3D) magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) spectroscopy enables us to identify the multi-mode eigenvalues in DIII-D and KSTAR tokamak experiments with stable plasmas. The temporal evolution of the multi-modes’ stabilities have been detected. The new method is numerically efficient allowing the real time detection of MHD modes’ stabilities during the discharge. The method performs active detection of the plasma stability by utilizing the upper and lower rows of internal non-axisymmetric coils to apply a wide variety of 3D fields. Multi-mode eigenvalues are extracted using subspace system identification of the plasma response measured by 3D-field magnetic sensors distributed at different poloidal locations. The equivalence of this new method with the one introduced by Wang (2019 Nucl. Fusion 59 024001) has been numerically corroborated. The more robust and efficient calculation developed here will enable real time monitoring of the plasma stability based on the extracted eigenvalues of stable modes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2016

Wind Farm Flow Modeling using an Input-Output Reduced-Order Model

Wind turbines in a wind farm operate individually to maximize their own power regardless of the impact of aerodynamic interactions on neighboring turbines. There is the potential to increase power and reduce overall structural loads by properly coordinating turbines. To perform control design and analysis, a model needs to be of low computational cost, but retains the necessary dynamics seen in high-fidelity models. The objective of this work is to obtain a reduced-order model that represents the full-order flow computed using a high-fidelity model. A variety of methods, including proper orthogonal decomposition and dynamic mode decomposition, can be used to extract the dominant flow structures and obtain a reduced-order model. In this paper, we combine proper orthogonal decomposition with a system identification technique to produce an input-output reduced-order model. This technique is used to construct a reduced-order model of the flow within a two-turbine array computed using a large-eddy simulation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1990

Annual Health Monitoring Conference for Space Propulsion Systems, 2nd, Cincinnati, OH, Nov. 14, 15, 1990, Proceedings

This conference discusses health management systems for liquid rocket engines, signal processing of spectroscopic data for engine diagnostic applications, real-time diagnostics of the reusable rocket engine using on-line system identification, and nonlinear parameter estimation for rocket engine health monitoring. Plume diagnostics are considered including discussion on preliminary plume diagnostics on the SSME using video digitization techniques and baseline plume emmissions. The development of a Fabry-Perot Interferometer for rocket engine plumes is also considered. The topic of computational modeling is also discussed, addressing such topics as probabalistic dynamics of material loss in the SSME turbomachinery, state-variable modelling of fluid-dynamics processes, and a model for the SSME high pressure oxidizer turbopump shaft seal system. A discussion of sensor development includes the topics of sensor development for the rocket engine condition monitoring system and the heat flux measurements in SSME turbine blade tester.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2016

Determination of Heritage SSME Pogo Suppressor Resistance and Inertance from Waterflow Pulse Testing

Waterflow tests of a heritage Space Shuttle Main Engine pogo suppressor were performed to experimentally quantify the resistance and inertance provided by the suppressor. Measurements of dynamic pressure and flow rate in response to pulsing flow were made throughout the test loop. A unique system identification methodology combined all sensor measurements with a one-dimensional perturbational flow model of the complete water flow loop to spatially translate physical measurements to the device under test. Multiple techniques were then employed to extract the effective resistance and inertance for the pogo suppressor. Parameters such as steady flow rate, perturbational flow rate magnitude, and pulse frequency were investigated to assess their influence on the behavior of the pogo suppressor dynamic response. These results support validation of the RS-25 pogo suppressor performance for use on the Space Launch System Core Stage.

McDougal, Chris↗

DOE OSTI2020

Advancing Fusion with Machine Learning Research Needs Workshop Report

Abstract Machine learning and artificial intelligence (ML/AI) methods have been used successfully in recent years to solve problems in many areas, including image recognition, unsupervised and supervised classification, game-playing, system identification and prediction, and autonomous vehicle control. Data-driven machine learning methods have also been applied to fusion energy research for over 2 decades, including significant advances in the areas of disruption prediction, surrogate model generation, and experimental planning. The advent of powerful and dedicated computers specialized for large-scale parallel computation, as well as advances in statistical inference algorithms, have greatly enhanced the capabilities of these computational approaches to extract scientific knowledge and bridge gaps between theoretical models and practical implementations. Large-scale commercial success of various ML/AI applications in recent years, including robotics, industrial processes, online image recognition, financial system prediction, and autonomous vehicles, have further demonstrated the potential for data-driven methods to produce dramatic transformations in many fields. These advances, along with the urgency of need to bridge key gaps in knowledge for design and operation of reactors such as ITER, have driven planned expansion of efforts in ML/AI within the US government and around the world. The Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science programs in Fusion Energy Sciences (FES) and Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) have organized several activities to identify best strategies and approaches for applying ML/AI methods to fusion energy research. This paper describes the results of a joint FES/ASCR DOE-sponsored Research Needs Workshop on Advancing Fusion with Machine Learning, held April 30–May 2, 2019, in Gaithersburg, MD (full report available at https://science.osti.gov/-/media/fes/pdf/workshop-reports/FES_ASCR_Machine_Learning_Report.pdf ). The workshop drew on broad representation from both FES and ASCR scientific communities, and identified seven Priority Research Opportunities (PRO’s) with high potential for advancing fusion energy. In addition to the PRO topics themselves, the workshop identified research guidelines to maximize the effectiveness of ML/AI methods in fusion energy science, which include focusing on uncertainty quantification, methods for quantifying regions of validity of models and algorithms, and applying highly integrated teams of ML/AI mathematicians, computer scientists, and fusion energy scientists with domain expertise in the relevant areas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS2008

Efficient Modal Basis Selection Criteria for Reduced-Order Nonlinear Simulation

A modal basis selection technique for a reduced-order nonlinear numerical simulation with application to two-dimensional structures is presented as a two-step procedure. A system identification analysis is first performed using proper orthogonal decomposition. Using these results, a set of load-invariant bases consisting of the normal modes is next selected. Two criteria for making the basis selection are offered; one using the modal assurance criterion and the other using the modal expansion theorem. The quality of the subsequent reduced-order analyses are examined through comparison with computationally intensive finite element nonlinear simulations in physical degrees-of-freedom. A clamped flat isotropic plate under a random acoustic loading is considered to demonstrate the procedure. It is found that the subject procedure enables formation of an accurate and computationally efficient reduced-order system applicable to a broad range of loading conditions.

Przekop, Adam↗

DOE OSTI2020

Online Parameter Estimation Methods for Adaptive Cruise Control Systems

Modeling Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) vehicles enables the understanding of the impact of these vehicles on traffic flow. In this work, two online methods are used to provide real time system identification of ACC enabled vehicles. The first technique is a recursive least squares (RLS) approach, while the second method solves a nonlinear joint state and parameter estimation problem via particle filtering (PF). We provide a parameter identifiability analysis for both methods to analytically show that the model parameters are not identifiable using equilibrium driving. The accuracy and computational runtime of the online methods are compared to a commonly used offline simulation-based optimization (i.e., batch optimization) approach. The methods are tested on synthetic data as well as on empirical data collected directly from a 2019 model year ACC vehicle using data from sensors that are part of the stock ACC system. The online methods are scalable and provide comparable accuracy to the batch method. RLS runs in real time and is two orders of magnitude faster than the batch method for modest sized (e.g., 15 min) datasets. The particle filter also runs in real- time, and is also suitable in streaming applications in which the datasets can grow arbitrarily large.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2017

MODAL TRACKING of A Structural Device: A Subspace Identification Approach

Mechanical devices operating in an environment contaminated by noise, uncertainties, and extraneous disturbances lead to low signal-to-noise-ratios creating an extremely challenging processing problem. To detect/classify a device subsystem from noisy data, it is necessary to identify unique signatures or particular features. An obvious feature would be resonant (modal) frequencies emitted during its normal operation. In this report, we discuss a model-based approach to incorporate these physical features into a dynamic structure that can be used for such an identification. The approach we take after pre-processing the raw vibration data and removing any extraneous disturbances is to obtain a representation of the structurally unknown device along with its subsystems that capture these salient features. One approach is to recognize that unique modal frequencies (sinusoidal lines) appear in the estimated power spectrum that are solely characteristic of the device under investigation. Therefore, the objective of this effort is based on constructing a black box model of the device that captures these physical features that can be exploited to “diagnose” whether or not the particular device subsystem (track/detect/classify) is operating normally from noisy vibrational data. Here we discuss the application of a modern system identification approach based on stochastic subspace realization techniques capable of both (1) identifying the underlying black-box structure thereby enabling the extraction of structural modes that can be used for analysis and modal tracking as well as (2) indicators of condition and possible changes from normal operation.

42 ENGINEERING↗