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DOE OSTI2025

Material Fracturing and Failure Simulation Datasets

Fracturing is a fundamental physics phenomena with broad relevance across multiple domains, ranging from infrastructure integrity, aerospace durability, reservoir production, and seismic events. We present a diverse dataset of simulated fracture evolution and material failure generated from two numerical solvers: the phase-field method and the combined finite-discrete element method (FDEM). These solvers differ in formulation, physical fidelity, and computational efficiency. The dataset includes five materials: PBX, anisotropic shale, tungsten, aluminum, and steel. For each, phase-field simulations span 400,000 cases: 200,000 under uniaxial tension and 200,000 under biaxial tension. The computationally expensive FDEM simulations include 90,000 split evenly among PBX, shale, and tungsten under uniaxial loading. All simulations begin with randomized initial fracture patterns. Each entry includes temporal data capturing fracture propagation dynamics. This comprehensive dataset is designed to support the development of foundational or surrogate machine learning approaches for predicting material failure. While no such models are introduced here, the dataset lays a robust foundation for advancing future research and innovation in these areas.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Mutation of active site glutamate in serine hydroxymethyltransferase allows trapping a reactive intermediate: a combined neutron and X-ray crystallography study

Serine hydroxymethyltransferase (SHMT) is a pyridoxal-5′-phosphate (PLP) dependent enzyme that catalyzes a chemical transformation essential for the one-carbon (1C) metabolism. SHMT reversibly converts L-Ser into Gly and transfers a 1C unit to tetrahydrofolate (THF) to give 5,10-methylene-THF (5,10-MTHF). 5,10-MTHF, a 1C-unit donor, plays a crucial role in the downstream biomolecular syntheses required for the cell homeostasis and proliferation. SHMT is a prominent target for the drug discovery to battle bacterial and parasitic infections, and to treat various types of cancer. SHMT-catalyzed chemistry is governed by the general acid-base catalysis. Knowledge of the catalytic mechanism can aid drug design but can only be achieved when the atomic details of each reaction step are mapped, including accurate determination of hydrogen atom positions. Here we utilized the inactive E53Q mutant of Thermus thermophilus ( Tth ) SHMT to directly determine protonation states with room-temperature neutron crystallography and to capture a reactive intermediate containing the PLP-L-Ser external aldimine and THF in the enzyme active site. We observed protonation of the Schiff base nitrogen (N SB ) in the PLP internal aldimine but no change in the protonation states of other ionizable PLP groups and active site residues compared to wild-type Tth SHMT. X-ray structural analysis of the ternary intermediate complex E53Q-Ser-THF that eluded previous structural characterization shows the strategic positioning of the E53Q side chain in close proximity to the external aldimine and THF and reinforces the proposed role for E53 as the driver of proton transfer events along the reaction pathway.

Drago, Victoria N. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory ↗

DOE OSTI2026

Flood Estimation under Snowmelt and Rain-on-Snow Processes in Alaska: A Military Installation Perspective

Accurate flood estimation in snow-dominated and high-latitude regions remains challenging due to complex interactions among rainfall, snowmelt, and rain-on-snow (ROS) processes, which are not captured in conventional precipitation-based intensity-duration-frequency (PREC-IDF) curves. This study evaluates the Next-Generation IDF (NG-IDF) framework, an extension of PREC-IDF that incorporates total water available for runoff (precipitation minus changes in snow water equivalent), in two contrasting Alaskan watersheds of Department of Defense (DoD) significance: the Little Chena River Basin (LCRB) in interior Alaska, a tributary of the Chena River that flows through Fort Wainwright and near Eielson Air Force Base, and the Upper Ship Creek Basin (USCB), which drains Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson near Anchorage. Using long-term SNOTEL observations and event-based rainfall-runoff modeling, NG-IDF and PREC-IDF flood estimates were compared against observation-based flood frequency analyses. Results show that NG-IDF consistently reduces flood-estimation bias by 15–20% relative to PREC-IDF, particularly for snowmelt- and ROS-dominated events. In the interior LCRB, permafrost conditions can substantially amplify flood responses during snowmelt events, an effect not explicitly represented in standard design tools. These findings demonstrate that NG-IDF provides a more physically consistent and transferable framework for flood estimation in cold regions, with potential relevance to mission-critical DoD installation resilience. Projected increases in ROS frequency and permafrost degradation across Alaska further emphasize the need to integrate physics-based hydrologic models that explicitly represent snow and permafrost processes to enhance design resilience and operational readiness for military and other critical infrastructure.

Yan, Hongxiang (ORCID:000000022387403X)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Pushing the limits of pulse shape discrimination in a large liquid xenon detector

Abstract The LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) experiment is a direct-detection dark matter experiment, optimized to search for weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs) through WIMP-nucleon interactions. The main challenge in dark matter detection is differentiating between WIMP signals and background events. In LZ, the ratio of ionization to scintillation signals (charge-to-light) is the primary method for rejecting electronic recoil (ER) background. Pulse shape discrimination (PSD) offers a method for additional ER backgrounds rejection in liquid xenon detectors. In this paper, the discrimination power of PSD with the LZ experiment is discussed. To precisely characterize the scintillation pulse shape, an analysis framework is developed to reconstruct the detection time of individual photons. Using LZ calibration data, the photon-timing tail fraction discriminator is optimized and achieves ER leakage as low as $$15\%$$ 15 % . For specific background processes such as $$^{124}$$ 124 Xe double electron capture, the leakage is reduced further to about $$5\%$$ 5 % . PSD is combined with charge-to-light to form two-factor discrimination (TFD). The optimized TFD performance is compared with the performance of the charge-to-light method, with the corresponding false positive rate reduced by up to a factor of two for large scintillation pulses. Finally, PSD and TFD are applied to data from LZ’s WS2024 run and their performance is summarized.

Akerib, D. S. [SLAC National Accelerator Laborator↗

DOE OSTI2026

How to Build an Empirical Speed Distribution for Dark Matter in the Solar Neighborhood

The dark matter flux in a direct detection experiment depends on its local speed distribution. This distribution has been inferred from simulations of Milky Way–like galaxies, but such models serve only as proxies, given that no simulation directly captures the detailed evolution of our own Galaxy. This motivates alternative approaches that obtain this distribution directly from observations. In this work, we utilize 98 Milky Way analogues from the TNG50 simulation to develop and validate a procedure for inferring the dark matter speed distribution using the kinematics of nearby stars. We find that the dark matter that originated from old mergers, plus that from recent nonluminous accretions, is well described by a Maxwell–Boltzmann speed distribution centered at the local standard-of-rest velocity. Meanwhile, recently accreted dark matter from massive mergers has speeds that can be traced from the associated stellar debris of these events. The stellar populations systematically underestimate the velocity dispersion of their dark matter counterparts, but a simple kinematic boost brings the two into good alignment. Using the TNG50 host galaxies, we demonstrate that combining these two contributions provides an accurate reconstruction of the local dark matter speeds. As an application of the procedure to our own Galaxy, we utilize stellar kinematic data from Gaia to quantify how the dark matter remnants from the Milky Way’s last major merger impact its speed distribution in the solar neighborhood.

Shpigel, Tal [Princeton Univ., NJ (United States)]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Detecting flash drought events to inform adaptive water management

Abstract: Flash droughts are characterized by a rapid onset of drought conditions, a common feature among various indicators of these events. The lack of a standardized definition and indicator makes flash droughts particularly challenging to predict and manage. We test six state-of-the-art flash drought indicators using 41 years of daily data across all Hydrological Unit Code 4 (HUC4) regions in the contiguous United States. Our results show substantial disagreements among indicators, suggesting that the detection of a flash drought event strongly depends on the choice of indicator. From the perspective of informing management and operations, an open challenge remains: which flash drought indicator should be used to trigger operational adaptations? To this end, we propose a methodological framework that informs adaptive actions by regionally assessing the level of agreement between different indicators. The regional differences in hydroclimatic conditions are expected to be reflected in the level of agreement between indicators. To better inform adaptive actions, the framework will also consider the impacted sectoral water uses and their varying response times. The insights gained from this study improve the understanding of how these different flash drought indicators capture the different aspects of regional differences and impacted sectors. Furthermore, this information can support more targeted adaptive actions to mitigate adverse impacts through improved preparedness and response strategies.

climate resilience↗

DOE OSTI2022

Climatic clustering and longitudinal analysis with impacts on food, bioenergy, and pandemics

Predicted growth in world population will put unparalleled stress on the need for sustainable energy and global food production, as well as increase the likelihood of future pandemics. In this work, we identify high-resolution environmental zones in the context of a changing climate and predict longitudinal processes relevant to these challenges. We do this using exhaustive vector comparison methods that measure the climatic similarity between all locations on earth at high geospatial resolution relative to global-scale analyses. The results are captured as networks, in which edges between geolocations are defined if their historical climate similarities exceed a threshold. We apply Markov clustering and our novel Correlation of Correlations method to the resulting climatic networks, which provides unprecedented agglomerative and longitudinal views of climatic relationships across the globe. The methods performed here resulted in the fastest (9.37x10 18 operations/sec) and one of the largest (168.7x10 21 operations) scientific computations ever performed, with more than 100 quadrillion edges considered for a single climatic network. Our climatic analysis reveals areas of the world experiencing rapid environmental changes, which can have important implications for global carbon fluxes and zoonotic spillover events. Correlation and network analyses of this kind are widely applicable across computational and predictive biology domains, including systems biology, ecology, carbon cycles, biogeochemistry, and zoonosis research.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Approach and Model Used to Represent a Timeline Analysis for Security Design Enhancements

Next-generation reactors will be able to use risk to inform and performance base the licensing of many aspects of the reactor, facility, and site design, including attributes of physical security. There are several factors related to security, including site topography, reactor design, and physical protection system components, to consider when designing the physical protection system into the overall facility design and plan of operation. With the versatility of advanced reactors, especially micro reactors, methods are needed to simplify and quickly evaluate potential timelines for designing a site configuration. This report describes an approach to generate qualitative and quantitative insights using a risk-informed simulation. The modeling process is described in detail, focusing on three aspects: (1) the facility mission time (the time required to control the plant until safe), (2) the attacker timeline (the time to potential sabotage), and (3) the response timeline (the time to counter the facility attack). The modeling capabilities also are extended to include facility physical phenomena such as thermal-hydraulics and heat transfer to capture realistic representation of dynamic changes to a facility. While the plant models and examples are hypothetical and do not represent a real facility, these modeling approaches could be used for future security-by-design engineering in advanced reactors. The outputs and insights from the modeling approach may be used to modify and optimize the security posture of a facility by efficiently making modifications to the model and seeing the overall impact from the modification. Lastly, use of the approach described in this report can also provide the technical basis for a physical protection program, describing how the facility and security strategy will cope with off-normal events.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Comparing simulated demand flexibility against actual performance in commercial office buildings

Commercial building energy benchmarking has been used as a mechanism to evaluate energy use of a single building over time, relative to other similar buildings, or to simulations of a reference building conforming to various energy standards. Lack of empirical demand flexibility data and consistent flexibility metrics has limited the ability to compare demand flexibility performance with estimated demand flexibility in buildings. In this study, we collected demand response performance data for a total of 831 demand response events from 192 sites as a first step to build such a building demand flexibility dataset, and propose a standard core data schema to consolidate field data from different sources. We also performed parametric simulations of a control strategy called “global temperature adjustment” using commercial office prototype building models. We then compared the simulated demand flexibility performance against the actual data for offices with global temperature adjustment strategy implemented. During demand response events with an average outside air temperature of 34 °C (range 23 °C–42 °C), the measured demand decrease intensity of the demand flexibility metrics were 6.1 watts per square meter (W/m 2 ), 10.0 W/m 2 , 11.1 W/m 2 , 7.1 W/m 2 , and 4.7 W/m 2 for small, small–medium, medium, medium–large, and large office buildings, respectively. Compared to the measured data in medium- and large-size buildings, the simulated demand decrease intensity was 0.7 W/m 2 (17%) lower on average. The discrepancy between simulated and measured peak demand intensities fell within one standard deviation of the mean measured data. Here, the comparison results validate the credibility of simulations in capturing real building data for assessing the technical potential of building demand flexibility.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Coupled Hydromechanical Modeling and Assessment of Induced Seismicity at FWU: Utilizing Time-Lapse VSP and Microseismic Data

The objective of this work is to utilize integrated geomechanics, field vertical seismic profile (VSP) and microseismic data to characterize the complex subsurface stress conditions at the Farnsworth Unit (FWU). The model is based on a five-spot sector model extracted from a primary geomechanical model. The five-spot well injection pattern is characterized by extensive reservoir characterization data, such well logs, extracted cores and borehole geophone data, to facilitate the detailed examination of stress changes and microseismic event occurrences. The study utilizes field vertical seismic volumes acquired from the injection well 13-10A. The seismic volumes successfully provided snapshots of the behavior of the reservoir at distinct times. The use of VSP and microseismic data provided direct and indirect estimates of the dynamic stress changes occurring in the overburden, reservoir and underburden rock formations. In order to illuminate the stress regions and identify rocks that have undergone inelastic failure, microseismic event occurrences were utilized. Microseismic activity has been detected at the FWU; further study of its locations, timing, and magnitude was needed to deduce the nature of the changing stress state. The results of the study revealed that microseismic events were successfully modeled within the Morrow B formation. Moment magnitudes of seismic events were within the same magnitudes for events in the reservoir, suggesting the suitability of the model. The results of the study showed that the computed moment magnitudes for seismic events were insignificant to warrant safety concerns. The study findings showed the usefulness of coupled hydromechanical models in predicting the subsurface stress changes associated with CO 2 injection. The knowledge gained from this study will serve as a guideline for industries planning to undertake underground CO 2 storage, and characterize the subsurface stress changes.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2026

Spatiotemporal and Statistical Mapping of Transition Metal Equilibria in Alkaline Media

Transition metal dissolution and redeposition (D/R) kinetics in alkaline media play a critical role in various chemical and electrochemical processes. Competitive reaction kinetics between different transition metals can modulate individual metal behavior in these processes. To date, these phenomena have remained largely unmeasured, and even when captured, they are difficult to statistically characterize due to their dynamic nature, simultaneous occurrence, and spatially heterogeneous nature. Here, in this study, we develop a statistical analysis framework based on in situ and operando X-ray fluorescence microscopy (XFM) to investigate the relative D/R kinetics of multiple transition metals in alkaline media. By employing statistical analysis, we quantify the spatial distribution of D/R species and assess the rate at which the system reaches equilibrium under varying reaction conditions. We show that pH does not simply change the rate of dissolution and redeposition, but reorganizes the cross-element kinetic correlations among Ni, Fe, and Mn and accelerates the spatial equilibration of D/R events, as quantified through correlation analysis, reaction-rate estimation, probability function distributions, and texture-based monitoring statistics. Additionally, we demonstrate how modifying the solvent environment can influence D/R kinetics, providing a pathway for tuning materials synthesis and process optimization. Our study offers valuable insights into the complex interplay between different transition metals and provides a reliable statistical framework for spatial analysis of diverse imaging data sets, enabling deeper extraction of latent information across multiple modalities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

The importance of capturing power system operational details in resource adequacy assessments

Traditional methods for assessing the resource adequacy (RA) of a power system are becoming obsolete due to emerging trends such as the increasing deployment of variable renewable energy and storage. Consequently, analysts are recommending that RA be assessed using a Monte Carlo simulation approach that models chronological power system operations over many instances of possible operating conditions. However, this approach is necessarily more complex and computationally demanding, which is an obstacle to real-world implementation. Here, in this study, we investigate which operational details of power systems are important to capture in order to accurately evaluate a system's RA, versus details that add complexity but do not meaningfully affect RA results. To do so, we develop a probabilistic RA assessment framework by adapting an existing production cost model and apply it to a case study based on the IEEE Reliability Test System. Our results indicate that multi-year data, storage dispatch, and transmission limits are key details to incorporate. Accurate RA results can be obtained using non-economic dispatch strategies as long as they are coordinated with detailed operational strategies. We also demonstrate how popular expectation-based RA metrics can mask important differences in the characteristics of loss of load events.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Test for the Origin of Solar Mass Black Holes

Solar-mass black holes with masses in the range of ~1–2.5 M ⊙ are not expected from conventional stellar evolution, but can be produced naturally via neutron star (NS) implosions induced by capture of small primordial black holes (PBHs) or from accumulation of some varieties of particle dark matter. We argue that a unique signature of such “transmuted” solar-mass BHs is that their mass distribution would follow that of the NSs. This would be distinct from the mass function of black holes in the solar-mass range predicted either by conventional stellar evolution or early Universe PBH production. We propose that analysis of the solar-mass BH population mass distribution in a narrow mass window of ~1–2.5 M ⊙ can provide a simple yet powerful test of the origin of these BHs. Recent LIGO/VIRGO gravitational wave (GW) observations of the binary merger events GW190425 and GW190814 are consistent with a BH mass in the range ~1.5–2.6 M ⊙ . Though these results have fueled speculation on dark matter-transmuted solar-mass BHs, we demonstrate that it is unlikely that the origin of these particular events stems from NS implosions. Data from upcoming GW observations will be able to distinguish between solar-mass BHs and NSs with high confidence. This capability will facilitate and enhance the efficacy of our proposed test.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Sensitivity of the NEXT experiment to Xe-124 double electron capture

Double electron capture by proton-rich nuclei is a second-order nuclear process analogous to double beta decay. Despite their similarities, the decay signature is quite different, potentially providing a new channel to measure the hypothesized neutrinoless mode of these decays. The Standard-Model-allowed two-neutrino double electron capture (2$\nu$EC EC) has been predicted for a number of isotopes, but only observed in 78 Kr, 130 Ba and, recently, 124 Xe. The sensitivity to this decay establishes a benchmark for the ultimate experimental goal, namely the potential to discover also the lepton-number-violating neutrinoless version of this process, 0$\nu$EC EC. Here we report on the current sensitivity of the NEXT-White detector to 124 Xe 2$\nu$EC EC and on the extrapolation to NEXT-100. Using simulated data for the 2$\nu$EC EC signal and real data from NEXT-White operated with 124 Xe-depleted gas as background, we define an optimal event selection that maximizes the NEXT-White sensitivity. We estimate that, for NEXT-100 operated with xenon gas isotopically enriched with 1 kg of 124 Xe and for a 5-year run, a sensitivity to the 2$\nu$EC EC half-life of 6 × 10 22 y (at 90% confidence level) or better can be reached.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Madden–Julian Oscillation in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 1

Abstract The present study examines the characteristics of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) events represented in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1), DOE’s new Earth system model. The coupled E3SMv1 realistically simulates the eastward propagation of precipitation and moist static energy (MSE) anomalies associated with the MJO. As in observations, horizontal moisture advection and longwave radiative feedback are found to be the dominant processes in E3SMv1 that lead to the eastward movement and maintenance of the MJO MSE anomalies, respectively. Modulation of the diurnal cycle of precipitation in the Maritime Continent region by the MJO is also well represented in the model despite systematic biases in the magnitude and phase of the precipitation diurnal cycle. On the MJO impact over the midlatitude, E3SMv1 reasonably captures the pattern of the MJO teleconnections across the North Pacific and North America, with improvement in the performance in a high‐resolution version, despite the magnitude being a bit weaker than the observed. Regarding the interannual variability of the MJO, the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulation of the zonal extent of MJO’s eastward propagation, as well as associated changes in the mean state moisture gradient in the tropical west Pacific, are well reproduced in the model. However, MJO in E3SMv1 exhibits no sensitivity to the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO), with the MJO propagation characteristics being almost identical between easterly QBO and westerly QBO years. Processes that have been suggested as critical to MJO simulation are also examined by utilizing recently developed process‐oriented diagnostics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Southeast Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership Phase III Overview of Accomplishments (SECARB Phase III Final Report)

The Southeast Regional Carbon Sequestration Program (SECARB) is a carbon management program established in 2003 and managed by the Southern States Energy Board (SSEB). SECARB is one of seven regional carbon sequestration partnerships formed by the Department of Energy (DOE). The seven partnerships form a national network of more than 400 organizations covering 43 states and four Canadian provinces with expertise in the areas of carbon capture, transportation, and storage. The SECARB program was funded by DOE and cost-sharing partners. The primary goal of SECARB was to identify major sources of carbon emissions, characterize the geology of a 13-state region, determine the most promising options for commercial deployment of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sequestration technologies in the South, and validate the technology options through carefully executed field testing through 2017. This report summarizes significant Phase III accomplishments and is organized by task as established within the SECARB Phase III Statement of Project Objectives (SOPO). This document does not provide an exhaustive overview of individual tasks. Rather, this report provides an overview of programmatic accomplishments and a timeline of events. Where applicable, hyperlinks to specific project deliverables are provided.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Phase transition phenomenology with nonparametric representations of the neutron star equation of state

Astrophysical observations of neutron stars probe the structure of dense nuclear matter and have the potential to reveal phase transitions at high densities. Most recent analyses are based on parametrized models of the equation of state with a finite number of parameters and occasionally include extra parameters intended to capture phase-transition phenomenology. However, such models restrict the types of behavior allowed and may not match the true equation of state. We introduce a complementary approach that extracts phase transitions directly from the equation of state without relying on, and thus being restricted by, an underlying parametrization. We then constrain the presence of phase transitions in neutron stars with astrophysical data. Current pulsar mass, tidal deformability, and mass-radius measurements disfavor only the strongest of possible phase transitions (latent energy per particle ≳ 100 MeV). Weaker phase transitions are consistent with observations. Here we further investigate the prospects for measuring phase transitions with future gravitational-wave observations and find that catalogs of O (100) events will (at best) yield Bayes factors of ~ 10 : 1 in favor of phase transitions even when the true equation of state contains very strong phase transitions. Our results reinforce the idea that neutron star observations will primarily constrain trends in macroscopic properties rather than detailed microscopic behavior. Fine-tuned equation of state models will likely remain unconstrained in the near future.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Breast tumor-targeted drug delivery via polymer nanocarriers: Endogenous and exogenous strategies

Breast cancer, one of the most common types of cancer worldwide, has a high degree of malignancy while lacking efficient treatments. The off-target events frequently occurring in drug administration have been a major obstacle, which causes severe side effects to patients and reduces the therapeutic efficacy. An ideal medication should precisely target the specific site with precise control over concentration and duration. In recent years, there has been immense progress in polymer nanocarriers that demonstrate great potential in the targeted delivery. These nanocarriers are constructed from materials sensitive to a wide range of endogenous (e.g., pH, enzyme, redox) and exogenous stimuli (e.g., light, ultrasound, magnetic waves), driving cargo release to the targeted tissue or cells. Here, we elucidate the mechanism of current targeting strategies and the engineering methods to construct these targeting systems or to improve their targeting efficiency. Here we capture the recent progress in the targeted nanocarriers derived from polymers which span hydrogels and micelles, demonstrating their design and applications in chemo, hyperthermia, immuno, and gene therapies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗