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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

DESI DR2 results. I. Baryon acoustic oscillations from the Lyman alpha forest

We present the baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements with the Lyman-𝛼 (Ly⁢𝛼) forest from the second data release (DR2) of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey. Our BAO measurements include both the autocorrelation of the Ly⁢𝛼 forest absorption observed in the spectra of high-redshift quasars and the cross-correlation of the absorption with the quasar positions. The total sample size is approximately a factor of 2 larger than the DR1 dataset, with forest measurements in over 820,000 quasar spectra and the positions of over 1.2 million quasars. We describe several significant improvements to our analysis in this paper, and two supporting papers describe improvements to the synthetic datasets that we use for validation and how we identify damped Ly⁢𝛼 absorbers. Our main result is that we have measured the BAO scale with a statistical precision of 1.1% along and 1.3% transverse to the line of sight, for a combined precision of 0.65% on the isotropic BAO scale at 𝑧 eff =2.33. This excellent precision, combined with recent theoretical studies of the BAO shift due to nonlinear growth, motivated us to include a systematic error term in Ly⁢𝛼 BAO analysis for the first time. We measure the ratios 𝐷 𝐻 ⁡(𝑧 eff )/𝑟 𝑑 = 8.632 ± 0.098 ± 0.026 and 𝐷 𝑀 ⁡(𝑧 eff )/𝑟 𝑑 = 38.99 ± 0.52 ± 0.12, where 𝐷 𝐻 = 𝑐/𝐻⁡(𝑧) is the Hubble distance, 𝐷 𝑀 is the transverse comoving distance, 𝑟 𝑑 is the sound horizon at the drag epoch, and we quote both the statistical and the theoretical systematic uncertainty. The companion paper presents the BAO measurements at lower redshifts from the same dataset and the cosmological interpretation.

baryon acoustic oscillations↗
DOE OSTI2025

DESI DR2 Results I: Baryon Acoustic Oscillations from the Lyman Alpha Forest

We present the Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) measurements with the Lyman-alpha (LyA) forest from the second data release (DR2) of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey. Our BAO measurements include both the auto-correlation of the LyA forest absorption observed in the spectra of high-redshift quasars and the cross-correlation of the absorption with the quasar positions. The total sample size is approximately a factor of two larger than the DR1 dataset, with forest measurements in over 820,000 quasar spectra and the positions of over 1.2 million quasars. We describe several significant improvements to our analysis in this paper, and two supporting papers describe improvements to the synthetic datasets that we use for validation and how we identify damped LyA absorbers. Our main result is that we have measured the BAO scale with a statistical precision of 1.1% along and 1.3% transverse to the line of sight, for a combined precision of 0.65% on the isotropic BAO scale at $z_{eff} = 2.33$. This excellent precision, combined with recent theoretical studies of the BAO shift due to nonlinear growth, motivated us to include a systematic error term in LyA BAO analysis for the first time. We measure the ratios $D_H(z_{eff})/r_d = 8.632 \pm 0.098 \pm 0.026$ and $D_M(z_{eff})/r_d = 38.99 \pm 0.52 \pm 0.12$, where $D_H = c/H(z)$ is the Hubble distance, $D_M$ is the transverse comoving distance, $r_d$ is the sound horizon at the drag epoch, and we quote both the statistical and the theoretical systematic uncertainty. The companion paper presents the BAO measurements at lower redshifts from the same dataset and the cosmological interpretation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Analysis of undissolved anode materials of Mark-IV electrorefiner

The Mark-IV electrorefiner contains a molten-salt/molten-cadmium system for electrorefining uranium. The anode basket is loaded with chopped sodium-bonded metallic driver fuel. For the present investigation, the bulk of the fuel was U-10Zr binary alloy. The undissolved anode materials after electrorefining are sampled for chemical analysis. The estimation of the undissolved anode materials based on individual chemical analysis results are challenging due to inherently high sampling errors associated with heterogeneous undissolved material compositions. Investigation of chemical analysis data as a whole reveals noticeable trends in the compositions of the primary phases and materials. Based upon this observation, we propose a methodology for accounting the primary phases relying on the measurement of the total anode mass only. Furthermore, the methodology is based on an empirical model explaining the mass of the undissolved anode materials constructed from historical anode material analysis data.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2012

0.22 THz wideband sheet electron beam traveling wave tube amplifier: Cold test measurements and beam wave interaction analysis

In this paper, we describe micro-fabrication, RF measurements, and particle-in-cell (PIC) simulation modeling analysis of the 0.22 THz double-vane half period staggered traveling wave tube amplifier (TWTA) circuit. The TWTA slow wave structure comprised of two sections separated by two sever ports loaded by loss material, with integrated broadband input/output couplers. The micro-metallic structures were fabricated using nano-CNC milling and diffusion bonded in a three layer process. The 3D optical microscopy and SEM analysis showed that the fabrication error was within 2-3 {mu}m and surface roughness was measured within 30-50 nm. The RF measurements were conducted with an Agilent PNA-X network analyzer employing WR5.1 T/R modules with a frequency range of 178-228 GHz. The in-band insertion loss (S{sub 21}) for both the short section and long section (separated by a sever) was measured as {approx}-5 dB while the return loss was generally around {approx}-15 dB or better. The measurements matched well with the S-matrix simulation analysis that predicted a 3 dB bandwidth of {approx}45 GHz with an operating frequency at 220 GHz. However, the measured S{sub 21} was {approx}3 dB less than the design values, and is attributed to surface roughness and alignment issues. The confirmation measurements were conducted over the full frequency band up to 270 GHz employing a backward wave oscillator (BWO) scalar network analyzer setup employing a BWO in the frequency range 190 GHz-270 GHz. PIC simulations were conducted for the realistic TWT output power performance analysis with incorporation of corner radius of 127 {mu}m, which is inevitably induced by nano-machining. Furthermore, the S{sub 21} value in both sections of the TWT structure was reduced to correspond to the measurements by using a degraded conductivity of 10% International Annealed Copper Standard. At 220 GHz, for an elliptic sheet electron beam of 20 kV and 0.25 A, the average output power of the tube was predicted to be reduced from 90 W (for ideal conductivity/design S-parameters) to 70 W (for the measured S-parameters/inferred conductivity) for an average input power of 50 mW. The gain of the tube remains reasonable: {approx}31.4 dB with an electronic efficiency of {approx}1.4%. The same analysis was also conducted for several frequencies between 190 GHz-260 GHz. This detailed realistic PIC analysis demonstrated that this nano-machined TWT circuit has slightly reduced S-parameters and output power from design, but within an acceptable range and still have promising output power, gain, and band width as required. Thus, we expect to meet the specifications of 1000 W-GHz for the darpa program goals.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimization of the artificial viscosity in Lagrangian staggered discretization codes. Modeling 1D stand-alone shock - case study

We have developed new measures of errors for numerical shock. The new approach is based on analysis of the structure function, and separation of the errors related to oscillations and shock width, which also include error in the position of the ”center” of the numerical shock. We have demonstrated that those measures correctly characterize the numerical solution. We introduced an objective function in, which both types of errors are weighted, and presented optimal values of the coefficients of the linear and quadratic viscosity for different weights and different Mach numbers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Multilevel techniques for compression and reduction of scientific data—the univariate case

We present a multilevel technique for the compression and reduction of univariate data and give an optimal complexity algorithm for its implementation. A hierarchical scheme offers the flexibility to produce multiple levels of partial decompression of the data so that each user can work with a reduced representation that requires minimal storage whilst achieving the required level of tolerance. The algorithm is applied to the case of turbulence modelling in which the datasets are traditionally not only extremely large but inherently non-smooth and, as such, rather resistant to compression. Here, we decompress the data for a range of relative errors, carry out the usual analysis procedures for turbulent data, and compare the results of the analysis on the reduced datasets to the results that would be obtained on the full dataset. The results obtained demonstrate the promise of multilevel compression techniques for the reduction of data arising from large scale simulations of complex phenomena such as turbulence modelling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

Development of a video image-based QA system for the positional accuracy of dynamic tumor tracking irradiation in the Vero4DRT system

Purpose: To develop and evaluate a new video image-based QA system, including in-house software, that can display a tracking state visually and quantify the positional accuracy of dynamic tumor tracking irradiation in the Vero4DRT system. Methods: Sixteen trajectories in six patients with pulmonary cancer were obtained with the ExacTrac in the Vero4DRT system. Motion data in the cranio–caudal direction (Y direction) were used as the input for a programmable motion table (Quasar). A target phantom was placed on the motion table, which was placed on the 2D ionization chamber array (MatriXX). Then, the 4D modeling procedure was performed on the target phantom during a reproduction of the patient’s tumor motion. A substitute target with the patient’s tumor motion was irradiated with 6-MV x-rays under the surrogate infrared system. The 2D dose images obtained from the MatriXX (33 frames/s; 40 s) were exported to in-house video-image analyzing software. The absolute differences in the Y direction between the center of the exposed target and the center of the exposed field were calculated. Positional errors were observed. The authors’ QA results were compared to 4D modeling function errors and gimbal motion errors obtained from log analyses in the ExacTrac to verify the accuracy of their QA system. The patients’ tumor motions were evaluated in the wave forms, and the peak-to-peak distances were also measured to verify their reproducibility. Results: Thirteen of sixteen trajectories (81.3%) were successfully reproduced with Quasar. The peak-to-peak distances ranged from 2.7 to 29.0 mm. Three trajectories (18.7%) were not successfully reproduced due to the limited motions of the Quasar. Thus, 13 of 16 trajectories were summarized. The mean number of video images used for analysis was 1156. The positional errors (absolute mean difference + 2 standard deviation) ranged from 0.54 to 1.55 mm. The error values differed by less than 1 mm from 4D modeling function errors and gimbal motion errors in the ExacTrac log analyses (n = 13). Conclusions: The newly developed video image-based QA system, including in-house software, can analyze more than a thousand images (33 frames/s). Positional errors are approximately equivalent to those in ExacTrac log analyses. This system is useful for the visual illustration of the progress of the tracking state and for the quantification of positional accuracy during dynamic tumor tracking irradiation in the Vero4DRT system.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Variation in surface properties as error sources in dynamic temperature measurements

Most temperature measurement methods rely upon the assumption of a single uniform source as part of the analysis in inferring an observed temperature T from the surface of a material. This is true for the radiometric and spectroscopic methods we rely upon in shock physics. However, there are obvious cases where this is a poor assumption that can cause large errors in analysis, such as the measurement of emission from a surface composed of more than one material, such as a rusted surface of Fe and Fe 2 O 3 , or a multi-material surface that could be produced through alloying methods (e.g., mokume gane) or 3D printing. Here we perform an initial examination of the effects of varied surface properties upon the analysis using idealized test data to constrain when we may have better confidence in the resulting calculations. We also examine the structures of the fits to test whether, in principle, comparing the fit with ideal gray bodies would reveal such a structure and enable the researcher to identify when a two-temperature fitting model should be used instead of a single- T model or a wavelength-dependent emissivity model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Forward modeling of Doppler velocity interferometer system for improved shockwave measurements

We report that when near-instantaneous shocks are recorded by using a Doppler velocity interferometer velocity interferometer system for any reflector (VISAR), they typically exceed the detector’s ability to react and “skipped fringes” result, where its visibility briefly reduces. Traditionally, replacing skipped fringes required guesswork in analysis, which increased arrival time errors. Second, the use of long but velocity-sensitive interferometer delays with fast detectors which can resolve the delay has traditionally been avoided because of the fear of confusing the arrival time signal. However, shorter delays produce smaller fringe phase shifts per velocity and, thus, can decrease velocity precision. We realize that while some loss of fringe information occurs at shock events, this is often just a partial loss and the residual fringe information can still hold valuable information. We describe a forward model (FM) of the interferometer action and detector blurring that assists with VISAR fringe analysis at skipping events: (1) more precise shock arrival times, (2) arrival time precision not limited by long delays, and (3) improved ghost subtraction, which improves accuracy over a broad time region. Lastly, we demonstrate the utility of a FM on National Ignition Facility and Laboratory for Laser Energetics Omega shots and discuss data process methods to increase the high time resolution of VISAR systems despite their limitations and complexities.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2013

Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Human reliability analysis studies from simulator experiments using Bayesian inference

Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) of complex facilities is performed to arrive at the risk posed by them. PSA also accounts for the contribution of the human errors towards the overall risk through Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) in terms of Human Error Probability (HEP). Human operators are part of the system and do not work in isolation. Their performance is influenced by the context in which the actions are performed. As a result, quantification of HEP requires operator performance data under the given context. Some good sources of operator performance data are plant‘s operation data, simulator data and expert judgement. The plant operation data pertaining to HRA is generally sparse. In this situation, a full scope plant simulator provides a good alternative for operator performance data generation. Many of the currently practiced HRA methods have been developed by combining the empirical evidence with expert judgement and contain a lot of uncertainty in their estimates. Bayesian inference is suitable for updating the prior HRA estimates with the simulator evidence to obtain the posterior HEP. Here, posterior HEP has been calculated for postulated accident scenarios in advanced reactor (first of its kind) at design stage, using plant simulator.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

BICEP/Keck. XVII. Line-of-sight Distortion Analysis: Estimates of Gravitational Lensing, Anisotropic Cosmic Birefringence, Patchy Reionization, and Systematic Errors

We present estimates of line-of-sight distortion fields derived from the 95 and 150 GHz data taken by BICEP2, BICEP3, and the Keck Array up to the 2018 observing season, leading to cosmological constraints and a study of instrumental and astrophysical systematics. Cosmological constraints are derived from three of the distortion fields concerning gravitational lensing from large-scale structure, polarization rotation from magnetic fields or an axion-like field, and the screening effect of patchy reionization. We measure an amplitude of the lensing power spectrum ${A}_{L}^{\phi \phi }=0.95\pm 0.20$. We constrain polarization rotation, expressed as the coupling constant of a Chern–Simons electromagnetic term g aγ ≤ 2.6 × 10 -2 /H I , where H I is the inflationary Hubble parameter, and an amplitude of primordial magnetic fields smoothed over 1 Mpc B 1Mpc ≤ 6.6 nG at 95 GHz. We constrain the rms of optical depth fluctuations in a simple "crinkly surface" model of patchy reionization, finding A τ < 0.19 (2σ) for the coherence scale of L c = 100. We show that all of the distortion fields of the 95 and 150 GHz polarization maps are consistent with simulations including lensed ΛCDM, dust, and noise, with no evidence for instrumental systematics. In some cases, the EB and TB quadratic estimators presented here are more sensitive than our previous map-based null tests at identifying and rejecting spurious B-modes that might arise from instrumental effects. Finally, we verify that the standard deprojection filtering in the BICEP/Keck data processing is effective at removing temperature to polarization leakage.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

FY20 Status Report on Photothermal Radiometry Development

This report documents FY20 progress in the development of a benchtop photothermal radiometry (PTR) instrument for the measurement of thermal diffusivity. A PTR system incorporating Off-Axis Parabolic (OAP) mirrors was designed and tested. Additionally, a novel analysis technique that accounts for systematic errors that affect measurement accuracy was implemented. Measurements on samples with a range of thermal diffusivities using the PTR setup along with the new analysis technique resulted in improved accuracy and repeatability. Areas for future development work are set forth.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Local Truncation Error-Informed Code Verification

The method of manufactured solutions (MMS) has become increasingly popular in conducting code verification studies on predictive codes, such as nuclear power system codes and computational fluid dynamic codes. The reason for the popularity of this approach is that it can be used when an analytical solution is not available. Using MMS, code developers are able to verify that their code is free of coding errors that impact the observed order of accuracy. While MMS is still an excellent tool for code verification, it does not identify coding errors that are of the same order as the numerical method. This paper presents a method that combines MMS with modified equation analysis (MEA), which calculates the local truncation error (LTE) to identify coding error up to and including the order of the numerical method. This method is referred to as modified equation analysis methd of manufactured solutions (MEAMMS). MEAMMS is then applied to a custom-built code, which solves the shallow water equations, to test the performance of the code verification method. MEAMMS is able to detect all coding errors that impact the implementation of the numerical scheme. To show how MEAMMS is different than MMS, they are both applied to the same first-order numerical method test problem with a first-order coding error. When there are first-order coding errors, only MEAMMS is able to identify them. Finally, this shows that MEAMMS is able to identify a larger set of coding errors while still being able to identify the coding errors MMS is able to identify.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2015

A Measurement of Gravitational Lensing of the Cosmic Microwave Background by Galaxy Clusters Using Data from the South Pole Telescope

Clusters of galaxies are expected to gravitationally lens the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and thereby generate a distinct signal in the CMB on arcminute scales. Measurements of this effect can be used to constrain the masses of galaxy clusters with CMB data alone. Here we present a measurement of lensing of the CMB by galaxy clusters using data from the South Pole Telescope (SPT). We also develop a maximum likelihood approach to extract the CMB cluster lensing signal and validate the method on mock data. We quantify the effects on our analysis of several potential sources of systematic error and find that they generally act to reduce the best-fit cluster mass. It is estimated that this bias to lower cluster mass is roughly 0.85σ in units of the statistical error bar, although this estimate should be viewed as an upper limit. Furthermore, we apply our maximum likelihood technique to 513 clusters selected via their Sunyaev–Zeldovich (SZ) signatures in SPT data, and rule out the null hypothesis of no lensing at 3.1σ. The lensing-derived mass estimate for the full cluster sample is consistent with that inferred from the SZ flux: M 200,lens = 0.83 +0.38 -0.37 M 200,SZ (68% C.L., statistical error only).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

CAUSES: Attribution of Surface Radiation Biases in NWP and Climate Models near the U.S. Southern Great Plains

Abstract Many Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and climate models exhibit too warm lower tropospheres near the midlatitude continents. The warm bias has been shown to coincide with important surface radiation biases that likely play a critical role in the inception or the growth of the warm bias. This paper presents an attribution study on the net radiation biases in nine model simulations, performed in the framework of the CAUSES project (Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface). Contributions from deficiencies in the surface properties, clouds, water vapor, and aerosols are quantified, using an array of radiation measurement stations near the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains site. Furthermore, an in‐depth analysis is shown to attribute the radiation errors to specific cloud regimes. The net surface shortwave radiation is overestimated in all models throughout most of the simulation period. Cloud errors are shown to contribute most to this overestimation, although nonnegligible contributions from the surface albedo exist in most models. Missing deep cloud events and/or simulating deep clouds with too weak cloud radiative effects dominate in the cloud‐related radiation errors. Some models have compensating errors between excessive occurrence of deep cloud but largely underestimating their radiative effect, while other models miss deep cloud events altogether. Surprisingly, even the latter models tend to produce too much and too frequent afternoon surface precipitation. This suggests that rather than issues with the triggering of deep convection, cloud radiative deficiencies are related to too weak convective cloud detrainment and too large precipitation efficiencies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

MO-E-BRB-04: Real-Time Exit-Fluence Delivery Validation

Recent high profile reports of technical failures and human errors causing severe radiation- induced injuries and deaths come in support of the sustained efforts to ensure patient safety in the delivery of radiation treatments. In addition, highly conformal radiation therapies and escalated fraction doses mandate increased and sustained accuracy of the entire radiotherapy process. Consequently, and as a Result of AAPM and ASTRO led efforts patient specific quality assurance for specialized radiation treatments such as IMRT, SRS/SBRT and Arc Therapy had become a three-tier process: Pre-treatment, during treatment, and post treatment patient specific QA. Traditional patient QA consists of pre-treatment data transfer integrity dosimetric verifications and during-treatment geometric verifications. However, as treatment adaptation becomes closer to deployment in the clinics, during treatment validation via exit detectors had become a realistic QA option, permitting plan assessment in near real time. Post-treatment, machine logs allow comparisons of a range of mechanical parameters. A combination of these techniques could be used in evaluating inter-fraction, and intra-fraction delivery over a long time period such as an year, to evaluate the significant errors per site, per treatment technique. This type of data mining over longer periods of time provides the potential to recognize suboptimal radiation treatments, while allowing to identify systematic, possibly significant errors. This would allow creation of a data base of realized errors, small and large in dosimetry that could be for process or equipment improvement. This educational symposium will describe and review patient QA techniques, results, and strategies for patient specific quality assurance. Learning Objectives: review the goals of pre-treatment QA for various specialized procedures review methods and means for pre-treatment QA, limitations and tolerances review the scenarios where Varian/Tomo Log files could be used. review error detection via log file analysis Learn how exit detector signal recorded in log file could be used to improve patient safety understand real-time EPID-based transmission dosimetry methods understand the goals of real-time delivery monitoring CMS Innovation grant. Rapid response supportive and palliative care program for patients with advanced cancer, starts July, 2012; Accuray Inc. Exit detector based QA software evaluation, Sept, 2012-Sept, 2013; ROI GRant from ASTRO “Safety and Quality: IMRT treatment delivery accuracy”.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Understanding the Interplay between Hardware Errors and User Job Characteristics on the Titan Supercomputer

Designing dependable supercomputers begins with an understanding of errors in real-world, large-scale systems. The Titan supercomputer at Oak Ridge National Laboratory provides a unique opportunity to investigate errors when an actual system is actively used by multiple concurrent users and workloads from diverse domains at varying scales. This study presents a thorough analysis of 6, 908, 497 hardware errors from 18, 688 compute nodes of Titan for 312, 215 user jobs over a 3-year time period. Through careful joining of two system logs – the Machine Check Architecture (MCA) log and the job scheduler log – we show the correlated pattern of hardware errors for each job and user, in addition to individual descriptive statistics of errors, jobs, and users. Since the majority of hardware errors are memory errors, this study also shows the importance of error correcting in memory systems.

Lim, Seung-Hwan↗