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At least 685 records · Page 38

2018 Annual Site Environmental Report Summary

We are committed to act as stewards of our environment to achieve our mission in accordance with all applicable environmental requirements. We set continual improvement objectives and targets, measure and document our progress, and share our results with our workforce, sponsors, and public. We reduce our environmental risk through legacy cleanup, pollution prevention, and long-term sustainability programs.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Initial Exploration of the Use of Mixed Precision in Iterative Solvers (B639388 Subcontract Quarter I Report)

The first quarter of the project was primarily spent identifying potential projects at the intersection of finite precision analysis, mixed precision computation, and Krylov subspace methods. We summarize our findings in the remainder of the document. Other activities include attending biweekly xSDK meetings as well as contributing material to the technical report and journal versions of the multiprecision landscape paper. The subsequent quarter will be spent selecting a subset of the described projects to focus on, performing initial numerical experiments to evaluate the potential for the use of mixed precision, and developing initial theoretical analysis.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

SMART Mobility. Advanced Fueling Infrastructure Capstone Report

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Systems and Modeling for Accelerated Research in Transportation (SMART) Mobility Consortium is a multiyear, multi-laboratory collaborative, managed by the Energy Efficient Mobility Systems Program of the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Vehicle Technologies Office, dedicated to further understanding the energy implications and opportunities of advanced mobility technologies and services. The first three-year research phase of SMART Mobility occurred from 2017 through 2019 and included five research pillars: Connected and Automated Vehicles, Mobility Decision Science, Multi-Modal Freight, Urban Science, and Advanced Fueling Infrastructure. A sixth research thrust integrated aspects of all five pillars to develop a SMART Mobility Modeling Workflow to evaluate new transportation technologies and services at scale. This report summarizes the work of the Advanced Fueling Infrastructure Pillar. This Pillar investigated the charging infrastructure needs of electric ride-hailing and car-sharing vehicles, automated shuttle buses, and freight-delivery truck fleets. For information about the other Pillars and about the SMART Mobility Modeling Workflow, please refer to the relevant Pillar’s Capstone Report.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Integrated Strategies to Enable Lower-Cost Biofuels

This report summarizes the findings of a qualitative analysis to identify integrated strategies needed for more affordable biofuels. It outlines five key strategies needed to achieve lower fuel production costs in an integrated biorefinery and provides high-level research needs across the biofuel supply chain.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Financial Analysis of Battery Electric Transit Buses

A baseline bus fleet and battery electric bus investment scenario was developed based on the average or common parameters of existing battery electric bus (BEB) fleets. A discounted cashflow analysis was done that found the baseline fleet to have a net present value of $785,000 and simple payback of 3.3 years. The 33 main parameters were then swung ±50% to determine their relative influence on NPV and were ranked accordingly. Then parameter volatility was estimated by dividing the range of observed values by the baseline value. The parameters that are most influential and volatile were highlighted as the ones fleet managers should focus on when determining if BEBs are a good investment option for them. These top parameters are 1) BEB purchase price, 2) purchase price of foregone diesel bus, 3) grant amount, 4) maintenance costs of foregone diesel bus, 5) annual vehicle miles traveled.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Methods for R&D Portfolio Analysis and Evaluation (Workshop Report)

The Workshop on Methods for R&D Portfolio Analysis and Evaluation convened on 17–18 July 2019 at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colorado, and examined strengths and weaknesses of the various methodologies applicable to R&D portfolio modeling, analysis, and decision support, given pragmatic constraints such as data availability, uncertainties in estimating the impact of R&D spending, and practical operational overheads. Participants employed their deep expertise in approaches such as stochastic optimization, real options, Monte-Carlo analysis, Bayesian networks, decision theory, complex systems analysis, deep uncertainty, and technology-evolution modeling to critique the initial example models developed by the project’s core team and to conduct thought experiments grounded in real-life technology models, progress data, expert elicitation, and portfolio information. This engagement of participants’ methodological expertise with the practical requirements of real-life portfolio decision support yielded ideas for improved approaches, alternative methodological hypotheses, and hybridization of methodologies that are well-grounded theoretically, computationally sound, and realistically executable given data availability and other practical constraints.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Methods for R&D Portfolio Analysis and Evaluation (Workshop Report)

The Workshop on Methods for R&D Portfolio Analysis and Evaluation convened on 17-18 July 2019 at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colorado, and examined strengths and weaknesses of the various methodologies applicable to R&D portfolio modeling, analysis, and decision support, given pragmatic constraints such as data availability, uncertainties in estimating the impact of R&D spending, and practical operational overheads. Participants employed their deep expertise in approaches such as stochastic optimization, real options, Monte-Carlo analysis, Bayesian networks, decision theory, complex systems analysis, deep uncertainty, and technology-evolution modeling to critique the initial example models developed by the project’s core team and to conduct thought experiments grounded in real-life technology models, progress data, expert elicitation, and portfolio information. This engagement of participants’ methodological expertise with the practical requirements of real-life portfolio decision support yielded ideas for improved approaches, alternative methodological hypotheses, and hybridization of methodologies that are well-grounded theoretically, computationally sound, and realistically executable given data availability and other practical constraints.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Numerical Experiments and Identification of Areas for Further Consideration (B639388 Subcontract Quarter II Report)

The second quarter of the project was spent carrying out numerical experiments on a variety of test matrices, using a combination of precisions, with the intent to study the numerical properties (namely, accuracy and convergence behavior) of the Conjugate Gradient (CG) method. We summarize our findings in the remainder of the document. Other activities include attending biweekly xSDK meetings. We are also currently collaborating with Steven Thomas (NREL) on the numerical stability analysis of “low-synch” Gram-Schmidt routines, for potential application within high-performance GMRES variants. This work is in progress. The subsequent quarter will be spent delving into the numerical analysis in order to provide theoretical explanation for the behavior observed in our experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

3D Tomography and Image Processing Using Fast Neutrons Final Report

This document is the final report for project OR16-ML-3DTomography-PD3Jb, “3D Tomography and Image Processing Using Fast Neutrons.” This project was motivated by the availability of three-dimensional (3D) tomographic neutron transmission and induced-reaction data following the development of associated-particle imaging (API) systems with two-dimensional (2D) or “area” neutron detectors such as the Advanced Portable Neutron Imaging System, which is capable of simultaneous measurement of transmission and induced-reaction neutrons.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models (HyRAM) (Version 3.0 Technical Reference Manual)

The HyRAM software toolkit provides a basis for conducting quantitative risk assessment and consequence modeling for hydrogen infrastructure and transportation systems. HyRAM is designed to facilitate the use of state-of-the-art science and engineering models to conduct robust, repeatable assessments of hydrogen safety, hazards, and risk. HyRAM includes generic probabilities for hydrogen equipment failures, probabilistic models for the impact of heat flux on humans and structures, and computationally and experimentally validated first-order models of hydrogen release and flame physics. HyRAM integrates deterministic and probabilistic models for quantifying accident scenarios, predicting physical effects, and characterizing hydrogen hazards (thermal effects from jet fires, overpressure effects from deflagrations), and assessing impact on people and structures. HyRAM is developed at Sandia National Laboratories for the U.S. Department of Energy to increase access to technical data about hydrogen safety and to enable the use of that data to support development and revision of national and international codes and standards. HyRAM is a research software in active development and thus the models and data may change. This report will be updated at appropriate developmental intervals. This document provides a description of the methodology and models contained in the HyRAM version 3.0. HyRAM 3.0 includes the new ability to model cryogenic hydrogen releases from liquid hydrogen systems, using a different property calculation method and different equations of state. Other changes include modifications to the ignition probability calculations, component leak frequency calculations, and addition of default impulse data.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Time Series Dimension Reduction for Surrogate Models of Port Scanning Cyber Emulations

Surrogate model development is a key resource in the scientific modeling community for providing computational expedience when simulating complex systems without loss of great fidelity. The initial step to development of a surrogate model is identification of the primary governing components of the system. Principal component analysis (PCA) is a widely used data science technique that provides inspection of such driving factors, when the objective for modeling is to capture the greatest sources of variance inherent to a dataset. Although an efficient linear dimension reduction tool, PCA makes the fundamental assumption that the data is continuous and normally distributed. Thus, it provides ideal performance when these conditions are met. In the case for which cyber emulations provide realizations of a port scanning scenario, the data to be modeled follows a discrete time series function comprised of monotonically increasing piece-wise constant steps. The sources of variance are related to the timing and magnitude of these steps. Therefore, we consider using XPCA, an extension to PCA for continuous and discrete random variates. This report provides the documentation of the trade-offs between the PCA and XPCA linear dimension reduction algorithms, for the intended purpose to identify key components of greatest variance in our time series data. These components will ultimately provide the basis for future surrogate models of port scanning cyber emulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Adaptive Recovery Model: Designing Systems for Testing Tracing and Vaccination to Support COVID-19 Recovery Planning.

This report documents a new approach to designing disease control policies that allocate scarce testing, contact tracing, and vaccination resources to better control community transmission of COVID19 or similar diseases. The Adaptive Recovery Model (ARM) combines a deterministic compartmental disease model with a stochastic network disease propagation model to enable us to simulate COVID-19 community spread through the lens of two complementary modeling motifs. ARM contact networks are derived from cell-phone location data that have been anonymized and interpreted as individual arrivals to specic public locations. Modeling disease spread over these networks allows us to identify locations within communities conducive to rapid disease spread. ARM applies this model- and data-derived abstractions of community transmission to evaluate the effectiveness of disease control measures including targeted social distancing, contact tracing, testing and vaccination. The architecture of ARM provides a unique capacity to help decision makers understand how best to deploy scarce testing, tracing and vaccination resources to minimize disease-spread potential in a community. This document details the novel mathematical formulations underlying ARM, presents a dynamical stability analysis of the deterministic model components, a sensitivity analysis of control parameters and network structure, and summarizes a process for deriving contact networks from cell-phone location data. An example use case steps through applying ARM to evaluate three targeted social distancing policies using Bernalillo County, New Mexico as an exemplar test locale. This step-by-step analysis demonstrates how ARM can be used to measure the relative performance of competing public health policies. Initial scenario tests of ARM shows that ARMs design focus on resource utilization rather than simple incidence prediction can provide decision makers with additional quantitative guidance for managing ongoing public health emergencies and planning future responses.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Directing Traffic in the Rhizosphere: How Phage and Fauna Shape the Flow and Fate of Root Carbon through Microbial Pathways

The rhizosphere, the portion of soil directly influenced by plant roots, is an area of great biological activity and intense carbon (C) cycling. Interactions among the residents of the rhizosphere, such as bacteria, fungi, viruses, and fauna, result in transformation and transfer C from root exudates and root debris to biomass and developing soil organic matter. The primary object of this research project was to explore the complex interactions controlling C flow in the rhizosphere and the response of these interactions to soil water conditions. We used stable isotope techniques combined with molecular analyses to observe the flow of C as it is fixed by plants from the atmosphere, deposited into the soil through plant roots, and exchanged through multiple pathways of the soil food web. This technical report summarizes the achievements of this project from field, greenhouse, and lab experiments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling efficient and equitable distribution of COVID-19 vaccines

Producing and distributing COVID-19 vaccine during the pandemic is a major logistical challenge requiring careful planning and efficient execution. This report presents information on logistical, policy and technical issues relevant to rapidly fielding a COVID-19 vaccination program. For this study we (a) conducted literature review and subject matter expert elicitation to understand current vaccine manufacturing and distribution capabilities and vaccine allocation strategies, (b) designed a baseline vaccine distribution strategy and modeling strategy to provide insight into the potential for targeted distribution of limited initial vaccine supplies, and (c) developed parametric interfaces to enable vaccine distribution scenarios to be analyzed in depth with Sandias Adaptive Recovery Model that will allow us evaluate the additional sub- populations and alternative distribution scenarios from a public health benefit and associated economic disruption Principal issues, challenges, and complexities that complicate COVID-19 vaccine delivery identified in our literature and subject matter expert investigation include these items: The United States has not mounted an urgent nationwide vaccination campaign in recent history. The existing global manufacturing and distribution infrastructure are not able to produce enough vaccine for the population immediately. Vaccines, once available will be scarce resources. Prioritization for vaccine allocation will be built on existing distribution networks. Vaccine distribution may not have a universal impact on disease transmission and morbidity because of scarcity, priority population demographics, and underlying disease transmission rates. Considerations for designing a vaccine distribution strategy are discussed. A baseline distribution strategy is designed and tested using the Adaptive Recovery Model, which couples a deterministic compartmental epidemiological model and a stochastic network model. We show the impact of this vaccine distribution strategy on hospitalizations, mortality, and contact tracing requirements. This model can be used to quantitatively evaluate alternative distribution scenarios, guiding policy decisions as vaccine candidates are narrowed down.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The Ristra Project: FY20/21 Milestone Report

The ASC Advanced Technology Development and Mitigation (ATDM) sub-program was established in 2014 to develop new simulation tools operating on exascale-class computers to serve NNSA (see Appendix B). Over the course of ATDM, LANL management have set a strategy for exascale-class application codes that follows two supportive and mutually risk-mitigating paths: evolution for established production integrated design codes (IDCs) – with a strong pedigree within the user community – based upon existing programming paradigms(MPI+X); and a new start ATDM project, Ristra, a high-risk/high-reward push for a next-generation multi-physics, multi-scale simulation toolkit based on emerging advanced programming systems(with an initial focus on data-flow task-based models exemplified by Legion). The role of Ristra as the high-risk/high-reward path for LANL’s codes was fully consistent with the goals of ATDM as described in Appendix B, in particular its emphasis on evolving ASC capabilities through novel computing programming models and computing technologies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Preliminary Theoretical Analysis of Mixed Precision Krylov Subspace Methods (Q3 Report)

The third quarter of the project was spent performing theoretical finite precision analysis of Krylov subspace method variants that use mixed precision. Our focus here is on the Conjugate Gradient (CG) method and the Lanczos method. We have performed an analysis of maximum attainable accuracy for the classical CG method in which 3 precisions are used: a working precision ε, a precision ε IP for the inner product computations, and a precision ε MV for the matrix-vector products. Our results show that performing inner product computations in lower precision does not affect the attainable accuracy. Further, we have performed a complete error analysis of the s-step Lanczos algorithm. In this case, we show that the numerical behavior of the algorithm can be significantly improved by using extra precision in a small part of the computation. We summarize the main theorems in the remainder of the document. Other activities include attending biweekly xSDK meetings. The subsequent quarter will be spent finalizing these results into technical reports and/or manuscripts for submission to journals, as well as identifying opportunities for future work.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗