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NASA NTRS2019

Evaluation of MODIS and VIIRS Cloud-Gap-Filled Snow-Cover Products for Production of an Earth Science Data Record

MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cryosphere products have been available since 2000 – following the 1999 launch of the Terra MODIS and the 2002 launch of the Aqua MODIS – and include global snow-cover extent (SCE) (swath, daily, and 8 d composites) at 500 m and ∼5 km spatial resolutions. These products are used extensively in hydrological modeling and climate studies. Reprocessing of the complete snow-cover data record, from Collection 5 (C5) to Collection 6 (C6) and Collection 6.1 (C6.1), has provided improvements in the MODIS product suite. Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Collection 1 (C1) snow-cover products at a 375 m spatial resolution have been available since 2011 and are currently being reprocessed for Collection 2 (C2). Both the MODIS C6.1 and the VIIRS C2 products will be available for download from the National Snow and Ice Data Center beginning in early 2020 with the complete time series available in 2020. To address the need for a cloud-reduced or cloud-free daily SCE product for both MODIS and VIIRS, a daily cloud-gap-filled (CGF) snow-cover algorithm was developed for MODIS C6.1 and VIIRS C2 processing. MOD10A1F (Terra) and MYD10A1F (Aqua) are daily, 500 m resolution CGF SCE map products from MODIS. VNP10A1F is the daily, 375 m resolution CGF SCE map product from VIIRS. These CGF products include quality-assurance data such as cloud-persistence statistics showing the age of the observation in each pixel. The objective of this paper is to introduce the new MODIS and VIIRS standard CGF daily SCE products and to provide a preliminary evaluation of uncertainties in the gap-filling methodology so that the products can be used as the basis for a moderate-resolution Earth science data record (ESDR) of SCE. Time series of the MODIS and VIIRS CGF products have been developed and evaluated at selected study sites in the US and southern Canada. Observed differences, although small, are largely attributed to cloud masking and differences in the time of day of image acquisition. A nearly 3-month time-series comparison of Terra MODIS and S-NPP VIIRS CGF snow-cover maps for a large study area covering all or parts of 11 states in the western US and part of southwestern Canada reveals excellent correspondence between the Terra MODIS and S-NPP VIIRS products, with a mean difference of 11 070 sqkm, which is ∼0.45 % of the study area. According to our preliminary validation of the Terra and Aqua MODIS CGF SCE products in the western US study area, we found higher accuracy of the Terra product compared with the Aqua product. The MODIS CGF SCE data record beginning in 2000 has been extended into the VIIRS era, which should last at least through the early 2030s.

Hall, Dorothy K.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multitaper Magnitude‐Squared Coherence for Time Series With Missing Data: Understanding Oscillatory Processes Traced by Multiple Observables

To explore the hypothesis of a common source of variability in two time series, observers may estimate the magnitude-squared coherence (MSC), which is a frequency-domain view of the cross correlation. For time series that do not have uniform observing cadence, MSC can be estimated using Welch's overlapping segment averaging. However, multitaper has superior statistical properties to Welch's method in terms of the tradeoff between bias, variance, and bandwidth. The classical multitaper technique has recently been extended to accommodate time series with underlying uniform observing cadence from which some observations are missing. This situation is common for solar and geomagnetic data sets, which may have gaps due to breaks in satellite coverage, instrument downtime, or poor observing conditions. We demonstrate the scientific use of missing-data multitaper magnitude-squared coherence by detecting known solar mid-term oscillations in simultaneous, missing-data time series of solar Lyman α flux and geomagnetic Disturbance Storm Time index. Due to their superior statistical properties, we recommend that multitaper methods be used for all heliospheric time series with underlying uniform observing cadence.

Astro-statistics techniques (1886)↗

DOE OSTI2026

The critical role of soil moisture in compound hazards

Soil moisture regulates the exchange of energy, water, and carbon across land–vegetation–atmosphere interfaces. Extremes in soil moisture can amplify natural hazards through interactions with diverse Earth system processes. Despite its mechanistic importance, soil moisture remains underrepresented in hazard research and predictive frameworks. Here, in this study, we review our current understanding of the role of soil moisture in the evolution and onset of diverse compound hazards by synthesizing the latest findings from observational and modelling studies. We highlight key soil moisture mechanisms, including atmospheric feedbacks that amplify drought–heatwave–wildfire events, precipitation couplings that promote clustered storms, and threshold responses that drive vegetation die-offs, trigger landslides, and induce flooding. Persistent challenges in observational data, model representation and operational implementation have limited the integration of soil moisture into hazard early-warning systems. Addressing these gaps through advances in observations, data assimilation, and physics-based and data-driven modelling will enhance hazard prediction and preparedness in a rapidly changing world.

Li, Chuxuan [University of California, Los Angeles↗

DOE OSTI2023

A General Spatiotemporal Imputation Framework for Missing Sensor Data

Many applications from precision agriculture, environmental monitoring and transportation networks rely on data collected across space and time over a large geographic area. Missing data poses a significant challenge for any data-driven inference and control tasks. Data imputation or the estimation of missing data can help fill these gaps by utilizing inherent spatial relationships and temporal patterns. A variety of spatiotemporal imputation models have been developed to address missing data in spatiotemporal datasets. However, these classical methods rely on the assumption that the underlying data follows a smooth trend and fail to provide accurate estimates when there is a large number of missing points in the data. Even though there are machine learning driven tensor completion approaches such as convolutional neural network based tensor completion (CoSTCo) that capture the non-linear relationships in the dataset, the transductive nature makes the algorithm less scalable. Thus, existing approaches for estimating the missing information do not effectively capture all dimensions of the spatiotemporal data structure, resulting in erroneous predictions and poor performance. The main contributions of this paper are: (1) We propose a novel inductive framework (G-LSTM) for missing data imputation that integrates a graph neural network with LSTMs to effectively capture both spatial and temporal dependencies. (2) Experimental results on a traffic dataset demonstrate that the proposed GNN integrated with an LSTM framework achieves improved imputation and maintains steady performance even when there are extreme missing conditions in comparison with the state-of-the-art imputation framework (i.e, CoSTCo). (3) The simulation results on a traffic network show up to 69% reduction in mean absolute error and 61% reduction in root mean square error when compared to CoSTCo.

Tharzeen, Aabila↗

NASA NTRS1995

Features and applications of the Groove Analysis Program (GAP)

An IBM Personal Computer (PC) version of the Groove Analysis program (GAP) was developed to predict the steady state heat transport capability of an axially grooved heat pipe for a specified groove geometry and working fluid. In the model, the capillary limit is determined by the numerical solution of the differential equation for momentum conservation with the appropriate boundary conditions. This governing equation accounts for the hydrodynamic losses due to friction in liquid and vapor flows and due to liquid/vapor shear interaction. Back-pumping in both 0-g and 1-g is accounted for in the boundary condition at the condenser end. Slug formation in 0-g and puddle flow in 1-g are also considered in the model. At the user's discretion, the code will perform the analysis for various fluid inventories (undercharge, nominal charge, overcharge, or a fixed fluid charge) and heat pipe elevations. GAP will also calculate the minimum required heat pipe wall thickness for pressure containment at design temperatures that are greater than or lower than the critical temperature of the working fluid. This paper discusses the theory behind the development of the GAP model. It also presents the many useful and powerful capabilities of the model. Furthermore, a correlation of flight test performance data and the predictions using GAP are presented and discussed.

Ku, Jentung↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploration Capabilities Data Analysis: An Integrated Approach

In preparation for humanity’s return to the Moon, it is necessary to advance technologies and capabilities that will allow for human sustainability on the lunar surface, as well as on eventual missions to send humans to Mars. Guided by Space Policy Directive-1 and through the National Aeronautical and Space Administration (NASA) Artemis program, the advancement and development of technologies on the lunar surface will be leveraged towards technologies and knowledge needed for humans to successfully and safely go to Mars and return. In order to understand the capability needs for lunar and Mars missions, the Capabilities Integration Team identifies integration approaches and overlaps between missions to develop strategies for advancing key capabilities that support those needs. Since 2013, the Capabilities Integration Team has reached out to subject matter experts, principal technologists, and system capability leadership teams throughout NASA to gather information about the critical technologies and capabilities needed in order to support the lunar and Mars exploration missions. To properly gather this data, the Capabilities Integration Team used a capability-driven approach to identify gaps between the current state of the art and the needs of proposed exploration missions, as well as activities that may close those gaps. These inputs are used to shape technology investment strategies and are incorporated in missions to the lunar and Mars surfaces. Data collected included: gap definitions and identifying information; gap closure information and metrics for success; mapping of gaps to elements of NASA's Artemis program and future exploration architecture. . The data collected, specifically from the technology gap list, has been used to support the NASA Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate Planning, Programming, Budgeting, and Execution processes, as well as the NASA Space Technology Mission Directorate Strategic Technology Plans. This paper discusses the integration approach used by the Capabilities Integration Team to identify current capability gaps for the Moon to Mars architecture and what capabilities exist or must be developed to support those architecture needs. In addition, this paper also details the performance, gap characterization, current capability gap closure opportunities, and risk impacts towards Artemis, and the overall Moon to Mars architecture.

Gregory Benjamin↗

DOE OSTI2022

Probability of Forming Gaps in the GD-1 Stream by Close Encounters of Globular Clusters

One of the most intriguing properties of the GD-1 stellar stream is the existence of three gaps. If these gaps were formed by close encounters with dark matter subhalos, the GD-1 stream opens an exciting window through which we can see the size, mass, and velocity distributions of the dark matter subhalos in the Milky Way. However, in order to use the GD-1 stream as a probe of the dark matter substructure, we need to disprove that these gaps are not due to the perturbations from baryonic components of the Milky Way. Here we ran a large number of test-particle simulations to investigate the probability that each of the known globular clusters (GCs) can form a GD-1-like gap, by using the kinematical data of the GD-1 stream and GCs from Gaia early data release 3 and by fully taking the observational uncertainty into account. We found that the probability that all of the three gaps were formed by GCs is as low as 1.7 × 10 -5 , and the expected number of gaps formed by GCs is only 0.057 in our fiducial model. Our result highly disfavors a scenario in which GCs form the gaps. Given that other baryonic perturbers (e.g., giant molecular clouds) are even less likely to form a gap in the retrograde-moving GD-1 stream, we conclude that at least one of the gaps in the GD-1 stream was formed by dark matter subhalos if the gaps were formed by flyby perturbations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2011

Modeling Ionosphere Environments: Creating an ISS Electron Density Tool

The International Space Station (ISS) maintains an altitude typically between 300 km and 400 km in low Earth orbit (LEO) which itself is situated in the Earth's ionosphere. The ionosphere is a region of partially ionized gas (plasma) formed by the photoionization of neutral atoms and molecules in the upper atmosphere of Earth. It is important to understand what electron density the spacecraft is/will be operating in because the ionized gas along the ISS orbit interacts with the electrical power system resulting in charging of the vehicle. One instrument that is already operational onboard the ISS with a goal of monitoring electron density, electron temperature, and ISS floating potential is the Floating Potential Measurement Unit (FPMU). Although this tool is a valuable addition to the ISS, there are limitations concerning the data collection periods. The FPMU uses the Ku band communication frequency to transmit data from orbit. Use of this band for FPMU data runs is often terminated due to necessary observation of higher priority Extravehicular Activities (EVAs) and other operations on ISS. Thus, large gaps are present in FPMU data. The purpose of this study is to solve the issue of missing environmental data by implementing a secondary electron density data source, derived from the COSMIC satellite constellation, to create a model of ISS orbital environments. Extrapolating data specific to ISS orbital altitudes, we model the ionospheric electron density along the ISS orbit track to supply a set of data when the FPMU is unavailable. This computer model also provides an additional new source of electron density data that is used to confirm FPMU is operating correctly and supplements the original environmental data taken by FPMU.

Gurgew, Danielle N.↗

NASA NTRS2012

NASA Earth Observation Systems and Applications for Public Health and Air Quality Models and Decisions Support

Health and Air Quality providers and researchers need environmental data to study and understand the geographic, environmental, and meteorological differences in disease. Satellite remote sensing of the environment offers a unique vantage point that can fill in the gaps of environmental, spatial, and temporal data for tracking disease. This presentation will demonstrate the need for collaborations between multi-disciplinary research groups to develop the full potential of utilizing Earth Observations in studying health. Satellite earth observations present a unique vantage point of the earth's environment from space, which offers a wealth of health applications for the imaginative investigator. The presentation is directly related to Earth Observing systems and Global Health Surveillance and will present research results of the remote sensing environmental observations of earth and health applications, which can contribute to the public health and air quality research. As part of NASA approach and methodology they have used Earth Observation Systems and Applications for Public Health and Air Quality Models to provide a method for bridging gaps of environmental, spatial, and temporal data for tracking disease. This presentation will provide an overview of projects dealing with infectious diseases, water borne diseases and air quality and how many environmental variables effect human health. This presentation will provide a venue where the results of both research and practice using satellite earth observations to study weather and it's role in public health research.

Estes, Sue↗

NASA NTRS2013

NASA Earth Observation Systems and Applications for Public Health and Air Quality Models and Decisions Support

Estes, Sue↗

NASA NTRS1975

Results of convective heating tests of a longitudinal gap on the Rockwell flat plate model (15-0, insert 7) in the NASA/Ames Research Center

Results are presented which were obtained from tests in a hypersonic wind tunnel to determine aerodynamic heating rates in a gap running parallel or slightly askew to the flow direction. The model used was a flat plate instrumented in thin-skin sections with chromelconstantan thermocouples. Heating rate profiles lengthwise along and down into the gap were obtained, and additional data were obtained from a total temperature probe and rake fabricated during the test to investigate an apparent aerodynamic cooling trend in the gap. Model variables were width, depth, length, and orientation of the gap relative to the flow direction. The tests were conducted at Mach 5.1 and Reynolds numbers per foot of 500,000, 1,000,000, and 2,000,000.

Quan, M.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Graph Analytics Frameworks Using the GAP Benchmark Suite

The analysis of connected data is an increasingly important application in high-performance computing. Such analyses can reveal fraudulent patterns in financial transactions, optimize telecommunications networks, predict information flow in social networks, etc. However, the landscape of graph analytics is highly diverse. Graph algorithms stress processor architectures differently, and no one graph can represent all topologies. Consequently, no single approach or framework is expected to be optimal for all graph analytics problems. To help make sense of this diverse landscape, we evaluated four approaches to graph analytics: GraphBLAS, Galois, BGL17, GraphIt; and compare them against hand-tuned implementations that take advantage of hardware features on our test platform. Graph- BLAS formulates graph analytics as sparse linear algebra. Galois provides syntactic constructs for data parallelism over irregular data structures. BGL17 is a generic C++ template library for implementing graph algorithms. GraphIt provides a domain- specific language to describe and optimize graph algorithms. We use the GAP Benchmark Suite to establish baseline performance and guide the side-by-side evaluation of each framework. GAP consists of 30 tests: six graph analytics algorithms (breadth- first search, single-source shortest path, PageRank, betweenness centrality, connected components, and triangle counting) run on five graphs, each with different topological characteristics (e.g., high diameter, skewed degree distribution, high average degree). High-performance reference implementations are included for each benchmark algorithm. Because a graph can be loaded into memory a number of ways (e.g., flat file on disk, compressed sparse format, data frames, retrieved from SQL or NoSQL databases), our evaluation focused on computational performance rather than I/O. Our results show the relative strengths of each framework.

Graph algorithms, Benchmarking, shared-memory prog↗

DOE OSTI2025

An Overview of the Molten Salt Thermal Properties Database–Thermophysical, Version 4.0 (MSTDB-TP V.4.0)

A central repository of thermophysical and thermochemical properties of molten salt compositions of relevance to molten salt reactors (MSRs) is vital in supporting the broad community of MSR developers, who are at various stages of developing and deploying their reactor designs. In general, these MSR designs differ significantly from developer to developer (e.g., with respect to the hardness of the neutron spectra, level of fissile loading, target multicomponent temperatures and power levels, and moderating capabilities). Therefore, the fuel and coolant salts being considered vary greatly: they may be chlorides or fluorides, they utilize different actinides at different ratios, and the cations in the melt are selected based on perceived advantages and disadvantages. Considering the general need for thermal properties, and the vastness of the array of potential candidate salt mixtures, the Molten Salt Thermal Properties Database (MSTDB) was initiated in 2018 with the goal of providing thermophysical and thermochemical characterization of key molten salt compounds and mixtures across their temperature and compositional domains. The MSTDB is thus divided into the thermophysical arm (MSTDB-TP) and the thermochemical arm (MSTDB-TC). The MSTDB is an effort funded by the Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program, and the MSR Campaign. This report provides an overview of the MSTDB-TP v4.0 in terms of the data contained within, the state of the tools used to access the data, the availability of predictive models that leverage the raw data in the database, the preliminary status of developmental efforts that are currently underway, and an account of future goals for MSTDB-TP. The primary goal for the update from MSTDB-TP v.3.1 to v4.0 was the incorporation of surface tension data into the database; this property is important for thermal hydraulics modeling and species transport in other tools that have been developed under the NEAMS program. A breakdown of the surface tension data that have been added into MSTDB-TP v4.0 is provided herein, and the manner in which the quality of the data has been assessed is also documented. For MSTDB-TP v4.0, newly published thermophysical property data—primarily from collaborative experimental efforts under the MSR Campaign—have been incorporated into the database, and the resulting expansion is documented here. Because of the size to which MSTDB-TP has grown, the raw data format has now been recast into JavaScript Object Notation (JSON) format for easier connection with the MSTDB-TP application programming interface (API). Saline; the pre-existing comma-separated value (CSV) format has been deprecated but is still maintained, accessible, and up to date. As a final effort in packaging the MSTDB-TP v4.0 update, the graphical user interface (GUI) for MSTDB has been updated to allow full accessibility to the density and viscosity predictive models, which are based on Redlich-Kister expansions of MSTDB-TP raw data. Some other major aspects of this report, in terms of preliminary and future work, include: (1) documentation of the formalism and preliminary testing of a kinetic theory model that may act as a predictive model for thermal conductivity; (2) documentation of the candidate predictive models that may be considered in the future for surface tension, making use of the surface tension data now in MSTDB-TP v4.0; (3) a preliminary account of a data collection process that will enable the filling of additional gaps within MSTDB-TP, namely with data which have been collected computationally (e.g., through ab initio molecular dynamics).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS2015

The Observed State of the Water Cycle in the Early Twenty-First Century

This study quantifies mean annual and monthly fluxes of Earth's water cycle over continents and ocean basins during the first decade of the millennium. To the extent possible, the flux estimates are based on satellite measurements first and data-integrating models second. A careful accounting of uncertainty in the estimates is included. It is applied within a routine that enforces multiple water and energy budget constraints simultaneously in a variational framework in order to produce objectively determined optimized flux estimates. In the majority of cases, the observed annual surface and atmospheric water budgets over the continents and oceans close with much less than 10% residual. Observed residuals and optimized uncertainty estimates are considerably larger for monthly surface and atmospheric water budget closure, often nearing or exceeding 20% in North America, Eurasia, Australia and neighboring islands, and the Arctic and South Atlantic Oceans. The residuals in South America and Africa tend to be smaller, possibly because cold land processes are negligible. Fluxes were poorly observed over the Arctic Ocean, certain seas, Antarctica, and the Australasian and Indonesian islands, leading to reliance on atmospheric analysis estimates. Many of the satellite systems that contributed data have been or will soon be lost or replaced. Models that integrate ground-based and remote observations will be critical for ameliorating gaps and discontinuities in the data records caused by these transitions. Continued development of such models is essential for maximizing the value of the observations. Next-generation observing systems are the best hope for significantly improving global water budget accounting.

Numerical analysis/modeling↗

NASA NTRS2012

Polarimetric Imaging of Large Cavity Structures in the Pre-transitional Protoplanetary Disk Around PDS 70: Observations of the Disk

We present high resolution H-band polarized intensity (PI; FWHM = 0."1: 14 AU) and L'-band imaging data (FWHM = 0."11: 15 AU) of the circumstellar disk around the weak-lined T Tauri star PDS 70 in Centaurus at a radial distance of 28 AU (0."2) up to 210 AU (1."5). In both images, a giant inner gap is clearly resolved for the first time, and the radius of the gap is approx.70 AU. Our data show that the geometric center of the disk shifts by approx.6 AU toward the minor axis. We confirm that the brown dwarf companion candidate to the north of PDS 70 is a background star based on its proper motion. As a result of SED fitting by Monte Carlo radiative transfer modeling, we infer the existence of an optically thick inner disk at a few AU. Combining our observations and modeling, we classify the disk of PDS 70 as a pre-transitional disk. Furthermore, based on the analysis of L'-band imaging data, we put an upper limit mass of companions at approx.30 to approx.50MJ within the gap. Taking account of the presence of the large and sharp gap, we suggest that the gap could be formed by dynamical interactions of sub-stellar companions or multiple unseen giant planets in the gap. Subject headings: planetary systems - protoplanetary disks - stars: individual (PDS 70) - stars: pre-main sequence - polarization

Hashimoto, J.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Challenges in predicting protein-protein interactions of understudied viruses: Arenavirus-human interactions

Understanding protein-protein interactions (PPIs) between viruses and host organisms is crucial for uncovering infection mechanisms and identifying potential therapeutic targets. The ability to generalize PPI predictive models across understudied viruses presents a significant challenge. In this work, we use arenavirus-human PPIs to illustrate the difficulties associated with model generalization, which are compounded by a lack of both positive and negative data. We employ a Transfer Learning approach to investigate arenavirus-human PPIs by utilizing models trained on better-studied virus-human and human-human PPIs. Additionally, we curate and assess four types of negative sampling datasets to evaluate their impact on model performance. Despite the overall high accuracies (93–99 %) and AUPRC scores (0.8–0.9) appearing promising, further analysis indicates that these performance metrics can be misleading due to data leakage, data bias, and overfitting, especially concerning under-represented viral proteins. We reveal these gaps and assess the impact of data imbalance using standard k-fold cross-validation and Independent Blind Testing with a Balanced Dataset, resulting in a drop in accuracy below 50 %. We propose a viral protein-specific evaluation framework that categorizes viral proteins into majority and minority classes based on their representation in the dataset, enabling comparison of model performance across these groups using balanced accuracies. This framework offers a more robust evaluation of model generalizability, addressing biases inherent in standard evaluation techniques and paving the way for more reliable PPI prediction models for understudied viruses.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Pennsylvania and Delaware Energy Code Field Studies (Final Technical Report (FTR)

Led by Northeast Energy Efficiency Partnerships (NEEP) in partnership with Performance Systems Development (PSD), the project aimed to conduct energy code compliance field studies for single-family residential buildings in Pennsylvania and Delaware, as well as multifamily and commercial buildings in Pennsylvania. Using U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) approved methodologies, trained field teams conducted on-site observations and testing to document compliance with key energy efficiency measures, including building envelope insulation, air sealing, duct leakage, windows, and mechanical systems. Data from these studies would then be analyzed to identify construction trends and compliance gaps. The goals included published baseline data for each study, and a training roadmap tailored to each state’s needs. This roadmap would have guided outreach and training for builders, code officials, and other stakeholders on the specific code requirements that offered the greatest opportunity for improvement.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Validation of a Probabilistic Continuity Assessment Method for Earth Observation Portfolios

With the increased reliance on spaceborne Earth observation data among the Earth science community and other end users, it is important that efforts are made to promote data continuity for a range of parameters of interest. Continuity gaps may occur between missions measuring like parameters due to mission development delays or early termination and introduce the potential of increased uncertainty for retrieved parameters. To inform portfolio-level decisions for Earth observing missions, Ivanco et al. developed a method that enables the assessment of the probability of continuity gaps for multi-mission architectures and provides a framework to assess this probability in the context of multiple scenarios that represent possible future states of the architecture [Ivanco et al., “A Scenario-Based Approach to Assess Continuity Gaps in Earth Observations,” IEEE Aerospace Conf., 2024]. While this method was previously applied to assess continuity gaps for a specific multi-mission architecture, it had not yet been validated with historical data. This paper outlines the process of validating the probabilistic gap assessment method by utilizing data obtained from past NASA Earth Science mission formulation documents and provides a discussion of the results and takeaways from the validation. Future areas of improvement pertaining to both the modeling and simulation methodologies and underlying assumptions are identified and discussed.

Katharine Burn↗