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The Evolution of the NASA Commercial Crew Program Mission Assurance Process

In 2010, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) established the Commercial Crew Program (CCP) in order to provide human access to the International Space Station and low Earth orbit via the commercial (non-governmental) sector. A particular challenge to NASA has been how to determine that the Commercial Provider's transportation system complies with programmatic safety requirements. The process used in this determination is the Safety Technical Review Board which reviews and approves provider submitted hazard reports. One significant product of the review is a set of hazard control verifications. In past NASA programs, 100% of these safety critical verifications were typically confirmed by NASA. The traditional Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) model does not support the nature of the CCP. To that end, NASA S&MA is implementing a Risk Based Assurance process to determine which hazard control verifications require NASA authentication. Additionally, a Shared Assurance Model is also being developed to efficiently use the available resources to execute the verifications.

Mission Assurance↗

The NASA Commercial Crew Program (CCP) Mission Assurance Process

In 2010, NASA established the Commercial Crew Program in order to provide human access to the International Space Station and low earth orbit via the commercial (non-governmental) sector. A particular challenge to NASA has been how to determine the commercial providers transportation system complies with Programmatic safety requirements. The process used in this determination is the Safety Technical Review Board which reviews and approves provider submitted Hazard Reports. One significant product of the review is a set of hazard control verifications. In past NASA programs, 100 percent of these safety critical verifications were typically confirmed by NASA. The traditional Safety and Mission Assurance (SMA) model does not support the nature of the Commercial Crew Program. To that end, NASA SMA is implementing a Risk Based Assurance (RBA) process to determine which hazard control verifications require NASA authentication. Additionally, a Shared Assurance Model is also being developed to efficiently use the available resources to execute the verifications. This paper will describe the evolution of the CCP Mission Assurance process from the beginning of the Program to its current incarnation. Topics to be covered include a short history of the CCP; the development of the Programmatic mission assurance requirements; the current safety review process; a description of the RBA process and its products and ending with a description of the Shared Assurance Model.

Commercial Crew Program↗

The Friendly Argument Notation (FAN)

This document defines and explains through examples the Friendly Argument Notation (FAN). FAN builds on previous work investigating text-based ways to express arguments [2, 3]. Its primary intended use is for creating and evaluating arguments about safety-critical systems, especially the types of arguments common within safety and assurance cases [4], but nothing in its design constrains its use to that domain. Compared to existing notations commonly used within this domain (for example [6]), FAN corresponds more closely to traditional argument concepts (for example [1]), allows greater flexibility in expression, provides for including counter-arguments, and requires less knowledge of computer-science-specific concepts. Only time and use will determine how beneficial these differences are in practice. This paper concentrates on showing how FAN looks to someone who is using it manually to develop or assess arguments. A later document will concentrate on providing the information necessary for software tools to be created for FAN.

arugment↗

Minimum-Violation Traffic Management for Urban Air Mobility

Urban air mobility (UAM) refers to air transportation services in and over an urban area and has the potential to revolutionize mobility solutions. However, due to the projected scale of operations, current air traffic management (ATM) techniques are not viable. Increasingly autonomous systems are a pathway to accelerate the realization of UAM operations but must be fielded safely and efficiently. The heavily regulated, safety critical nature of aviation may lead to multiple, competing safety constraints that can be traded off based on the operational context. In this paper, we design a framework which allows for the scalable planning of a UAM ATM system. We formalize safety oriented constraints derived from FAA regulations by encoding them as temporal logic formulae. We then propose a method for UAM ATM that is both scalable and minimally violates the temporal logic constraints. Numerical results show that the runtime for our proposed algorithm is suitable for very large problems and is backed by theoretical guarantees of correctness with respect to given temporal logic constraints.

Urban Air Mobility↗

The Friendly Argument Notation (FAN): 2023 Version

This document constitutes the official description of the current iteration of the Friendly Argument Notation (FAN). This new version provides several enhancements to the original 2020 instantiation, while maintaining essential compatibility with it. Specifically, the new version enables distinguishing between deductive and non-deductive arguments, removes the requirement for always providing an explicit statement of reasoning, and relaxes the rules for when labels may be used. The primary intended use of FAN is unchanged: creating and evaluating arguments about safety-critical systems, specifically the types of arguments common within safety and assurance cases.

language↗

IER 555: Godiva Benchmark Update CED-2 (Final Design Report)

The International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) evaluation of the Godiva IV critical assembly, HEU-MET-FAST-086: GODIVA-IV DELAYED-CRITICAL EXPERIMENTS (HMF-086), was completed by Russ Mosteller. Five critical experiment configurations performed at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Technical Area (TA)-18 were evaluated as acceptable benchmark cases. The five cases consist of four delayed critical configurations which differ in control rod positions and one prompt critical configuration. All cases calculated a lower $k_{eff}$ than measured by experiment. This data is referred to as the TA-18 Godiva IV benchmark in this report. In 2005, Godiva IV was disassembled for relocation to the Nevada Test Site (NTS), now Nevada National Security Site (NNSS), at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC). Following the disassembly and subsequent reassembly and startup of Godiva IV at NCERC, additional information about the Godiva IV components was obtained. An errata note was added to the HMF-086 evaluation in the ICSBEP handbook to provide this new information until a revision to the benchmark evaluation could be performed. In addition to those corrections, there are differences between the Godiva IV assembly at TA-18 and the Godiva IV assembly at NCERC. These differences include both assembly-specific differences (differences in the safety block gap, differences in the control rod positions, a new NCERC Top Hat and contamination shield) as well as environmental differences, such as the size and shape of the experimental building where the assembly is located. An additional model with similar cases, referred to as the NCERC Godiva IV benchmark in this report, will be added to the revised HMF-086 to capture these additional differences. This will provide the best benchmark model of Godiva for use by those performing experiments at NCERC. The IER 555 CED-2 report documents the information that will be updated in the HMF-086 revision, both the corrections to the TA-18 Godiva IV benchmark and the subsequent changes to create a NCERC Godiva IV benchmark. It describes the measurements that will be performed for cases similar to those performed at TA-18. It also describes measurements that will be included in the evaluation as additional data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 35, No. 2, July-December 1994]

Nuclear Safety is a journal that covers significant issues in the field of nuclear safety. Its primary scope is safety in the design, construction, operation, and decommissioning of nuclear power reactors worldwide and the research and analysis activities that promote this goal, but it also encompasses the safety aspects of the entire nuclear fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing and handling, and nuclear waste disposal, the handling of fissionable materials and radioisotopes, and the environmental effects of all these activities. Table of Contents for this issue follows. GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 179 Consideration of Postaccident Consequences in the Determination of Safety Objectives for Future Nuclear Power Plants in France, D. Queniart, A. Sugier, and J. Lochard; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 187 Nuclear Safety Research: The Phebus FP Severe Accident Experimental Program, P. von der Hardt, A. V. Jones, C. Lecomte, and A. Tattegrain; 205 Containment Performance Analysis of the Advanced Neutron Source Reactor at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, S. H. Kim, R. P. Taleyarkhan, and V. Georgevich; 213 Assessment of Fission Product Deposits in the Reactor Coolant System: The DEVAP Program, G. Le Marois and M. Megnin; 222 Erratum to “A Review of the Available Information on the Triggering Stage of a Steam Explosion," Vol. 35, No. 1, CONTROL AND INSTRUMENTATION: 223 Effects of Normal Aging on Calibration and Response Time of Nuclear Plant Resistance Temperature Detectors and Pressure Sensors, H. M. Hashemian; DESIGN FEATURES: 235 Defense in Depth Against the Hydrogen Risk—A European Research Program, F. Fineschi; ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS: 246 Technical Note: A Preliminary Analysis of the Risks to Hong Kong Resulting from Potential Accidents of Daya Bay Nuclear Power Plant, Z. Shi and X. Wei; OPERATING EXPERIENCES: 253 Reactor Shutdown Experience, Compiled by J. W. Cletcher; SPECIAL SECTION ON TMI-2 VESSEL INVESTIGATION PROJECT: 256 Three Mile Island—New Findings 15 Years After the Accident A. M. Rubin and E. Beckjord; 269 Relocation of Molten Material to the TMI-2 Lower Head, J. R. Wolf, D. W. Akers, and L. A. Neimark; 280 Insight Into the TMI-2 Core Material Relocation Through Examination of Instrument Tube Nozzles, L. A. Neimark; 288 Physical and Radiochemical Examinations of Debris from the TMI-2 Lower Head, D. W. Akers and B. K. Schuetz; 301 Results of Metallographic Examinations and Mechanical Tests of Pressure Vessel Samples from the TMI-2 Lower Head, D. R. Diercks and G. E. Korth; 313 Margin-to-Failure Calculations for the TMI-2 Vessel, J. Rempe, L. Stickler, S. Chavez, G. Thinnes, R. Witt, and M. Corradini; U.S. NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION INFORMATION AND ANALYSES: 328 1993 Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) Program Results, L. N. Vanden Heuvel, J. W. Cletcher, D. A. Copinger, J. W. Minarick, B. W. Dolan, and P. D. O’Reilley; RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: 339 Reports, Standards, and Safety Guides, D. S. Queener; 345 Proposed Rule Changes as of June 30, 1994; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 234 Thirty-First Annual Meeting of the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements; 356 1995 International Incineration Conference; 358 Fifth International Controls and Instrumentation Conference; 359 ANS International Topical Meeting on Safety of Operating Reactors; 359 Fifth International Conference on Nuclear Criticality Safety; 360 International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment Methodology and Applications; 351 The Authors; 357 Reviewers of Nuclear Safety, Vol. 35.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Analysis of Terrestrial Interference Protection from UAS CNPC Satellite Transmitters

Unmanned aircraft (UA) are projected to have a major impact on future aviation. Larger UA operating at altitudes above 3000 feet will require at least occasional access to non-segregated, that is, controlled airspace. In order for unmanned aircraft to be integrated into the airspace and operate with other commercial aircraft, a very reliable command and control (a. k. a. control and non-payload communications, (CNPC)) link is required. For operations covering large distances or over remote locations, a beyond-line-of-sight (BLOS) CNPC link implemented through a satellite will almost always be required. Protected aviation spectrum (aeronautical mobile satellite (route) service, or AMS(R)S) would normally be used for such a safety-critical link, however studies have shown that currently available aviation safety satellite spectrum is inadequate to support the projected BLOS CNPC link bandwidth requirements. To address this inadequacy, the 2015 World Radio communication Conference studied the possible use of the Fixed Satellite Service (FSS) to provide CNPC, including possible allocations in Ku-Band and Ka-Band, under Agenda Item (AI) 1.5. Although UA CNPC satellite links in these bands were shown to meet operational availability and continuity requirements, a serious complication exists in that there are also terrestrial service allocations in these bands, in particular, Fixed Service (FS) point-to-point and point-to-multipoint microwave digital links. During the WRC-15 study cycle, much opposition to AI 1.5 was generated based on fears that UA CNPC satellite transmitters in these bands would impose unacceptable levels of interference to the FS receivers. NASA analyzed the possible interference from the UA transmitters based on probable UA transmission and FS receiver characteristics, and UA traffic distributions and densities to determine conditions under which UA could operate without imposing unacceptable interference levels to the FS. Ultimately, UA power flux density transmission limits were proposed as a way to insure protection of FS receivers and further studies were prepared on the various proposals. This paper presents the results of these studies and discusses possible implications on future UA BLOS operations.

aircraft communications↗

Examples of Mission-driven Data Science from Jefferson Lab and ACES

This presentation details mission-driven data science initiatives at Jefferson Lab and the Joint Institute for Advanced Computing on Environmental Studies (ACES). JLab, a U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science national laboratory, operates the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF), and is the lead institute for the new High Performance Data Facility (HPDF) Hub. The Joint Institute for ACES brings together interdisciplinary teams in health informatics, climate modeling, computer science, and physics to address environmental challenges, including flood modeling. The Hampton Roads region, particularly Norfolk and Virginia Beach, faces increasing flood risks, motivating the need for rapid, reliable, and risk-aware decision support. ACES’s flooding work has a focus on uncertainty quantification (UQ) and machine learning (ML) for coastal flood management. The work is motivated by the increasing vulnerability of communities such as Norfolk and Virginia Beach, Virginia, to frequent coastal flooding events, and the need for rapid, reliable decision support. The research develops computationally efficient ML surrogate models to forecast water levels and flooding risk. A central theme is the quantification and calibration of predictive uncertainty, especially for out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios, using techniques such as Monte Carlo Dropout, Deep Ensembles, Gaussian Processes, and Deep Quantile Regression (DQR). The study demonstrates that distance-aware UQ is critical for reliable scientific AI, particularly in high-dimensional, safety-critical, and real-time applications.

McSpadden, Diana [Thomas Jefferson National Accele↗

Unsupervised anomaly clustering via offset alignment in multivariate grid sensing data

Modern industries increasingly rely on multi-sensor technologies to acquire complex, high-dimensional data streams, enabling advanced monitoring and control systems. One critical application is online anomaly detection in electrical smart grids, where multivariate and multimodal sensing technologies play a vital role. However, detecting anomalies in such time-series data is challenging due to their inherent temporal dependencies and stochastic behavior. Traditional approaches based on supervised and semi-supervised learning methods depend on labeled datasets, which are often unavailable in real-world scenarios. While unsupervised methods have emerged as promising alternatives, these methods are highly susceptible to noise and outliers commonly present in sensing applications. Furthermore, deep learning-based anomaly detection methods, despite their performance, are often criticized for their black-box nature, limiting their applicability in safety-critical and online environments where interpretability and explainability are paramount. In this work, we propose an unsupervised anomaly clustering method leveraging a cyclic alignment-based offset detection algorithm for multivariate time-series signals. The proposed method is applied to multivariate data collected from vibrational, voltage, and magnetic field sensors deployed in a local grid substation. Our results demonstrate the robustness of the algorithm in accurately clustering various anomalies/events across different sensing modalities. Additionally, we compare the effectiveness of the proposed approach against a simple pattern-based anomaly detection method, which performs well for univariate data but fails to generalize to multivariate and multimodal time-series data.

Mukherjee, Subrata [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000309930338)↗

Preliminary Results on Bayesian Inverse UQ for OECD/NEA WPNCS Subgroup 14 Benchmark Exercise for Error Recovery and Experimental Coverage

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Working Party on Nucelar Criticality Safety (WPNCS) has proposed a benchmark exercise representative of neutronic behavior in criticality experiments. Here, the goal is to develop confidence in data assimilation techniques used to adjust nuclear data. Participants are given synthetic experimental models with associated measured data and asked to estimate the model parameters given the model and measurements as well as provide predictions for separate application models. In this work, we performed data assimilation using Bayesian inverse Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) with machine learning surrogate models to produce posterior parameter distributions for the requested parameters and posterior predictive distributions for the requested responses. Several experimental models are shown to insufficiently inform the posterior parameter distributions for the applications involved. However, given sufficient experimental data, posterior parameter estimates yielded reduced uncertainty in the response predictions of interest while covering the experimental data.

Bayesian Inference↗

Towards a Formal Basis for Modular Safety Cases

Safety assurance using argument-based safety cases is an accepted best-practice in many safety-critical sectors. Goal Structuring Notation (GSN), which is widely used for presenting safety arguments graphically, provides a notion of modular arguments to support the goal of incremental certification. Despite the efforts at standardization, GSN remains an informal notation whereas the GSN standard contains appreciable ambiguity especially concerning modular extensions. This, in turn, presents challenges when developing tools and methods to intelligently manipulate modular GSN arguments. This paper develops the elements of a theory of modular safety cases, leveraging our previous work on formalizing GSN arguments. Using example argument structures we highlight some ambiguities arising through the existing guidance, present the intuition underlying the theory, clarify syntax, and address modular arguments, contracts, well-formedness and well-scopedness of modules. Based on this theory, we have a preliminary implementation of modular arguments in our toolset, AdvoCATE.

Safety↗

Algorithm-Based Fault Tolerance for Convolutional Neural Networks

Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are becoming more and more important for solving challenging and critical problems in many fields. CNN inference applications have been deployed in safety-critical systems, which may suffer from soft errors caused by high-energy particles, high temperature, or abnormal voltage. Of critical importance is ensuring the stability of the CNN inference process against soft errors. Traditional fault tolerance methods are not suitable for CNN inference because error-correcting code is unable to protect computational components, instruction duplication techniques incur high overhead, and existing algorithm-based fault tolerance (ABFT) techniques cannot protect all convolution implementations. In this paper, we focus on how to protect the CNN inference process against soft errors as efficiently as possible, with the following three contributions. (1) We propose several systematic ABFT schemes based on checksum techniques and analyze their fault protection ability and runtime thoroughly. Unlike traditional ABFT based on matrix-matrix multiplication, our schemes support any convolution implementations. (2) We design a novel workflow integrating all the proposed schemes to obtain a high detection/correction ability with limited total runtime overhead. (3) We perform our evaluation using ImageNet with well-known CNN models including AlexNet, VGG-19, ResNet-18, and YOLOv2. Here, experimental results demonstrate that our implementation can handle soft errors with very limited runtime overhead (4%~8% in both error-free and error-injected situations).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Addendum to ICSBEP Logbooks 12r, 13r, 14r and 15r for Polyethylene and Graphite Reflected HEU Metal Critical Experiments

This report documents the experimenters’ data sheets that were recently (2023) discovered for critical experiments with highly enriched uranium metal with polyethylene and graphite reflectors. These data sheets were produced at the time of the measurements, when the dimensional inspection reports for the polyethylene and graphite were available. However, at this writing, those inspection reports are not available but may be in unmarked storage for the Y-12 National Security Complex. However, the data sheets presented herein contain sketches of the experimental configurations and other additional information that is not in the logbooks, such as dimensions and masses of the graphite measurements. This report reproduces the experimental data sheets that complement the logbooks. Some of the data on these sheets and the logbooks can be used to infer the dimensions and masses that are not documented. Some obvious mistakes in the logbook and data sheets have been corrected. In the reproduced data sheets, some of the information is not clearly visible: some information, such as average values, can be obtained from other data in the sheets or logbook. This report should be sent to the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Program at Idaho National Laboratory to complement the existing Oak Ridge Critical Facility logbooks there.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Godiva-IV Critical Assembly [Slides]

Objectives: Familiarization of the Godiva-IV assembly; Understand the criticality safety parameters that effect Godiva IV; Understand the differences between subcritical, delayed-critical, and prompt-critical operations; and, Understand the concept of temperature-dependent reactivity feedback.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Advanced Multimodal Solutions for Information Presentation

High-workload, fast-paced, and degraded sensory environments are the likeliest candidates to benefit from multimodal information presentation. For example, during extra-vehicular activity (EVA) and telerobotic operations, the sensory restrictions associated with such a hostile environment provide a major challenge to maintaining the situation awareness (SA) required for safe operations. In particular, orientation, navigation, and collision avoidance are critical aspects of EVA tasks that need to be addressed to ensure the safety of the crew and the success of the mission. Multimodal displays hold promise to enhance situation awareness and task performance by utilizing different sensory modalities and maximizing their effectiveness based on appropriate interaction between modalities. Multimodal displays will also play an important role for long-duration information systems and will likely begin to be developed in the early phases of cislunar Gateway, and later lunar or Mars transit missions. Information systems are envisioned for LDEMs that require spacecraft with greater crew autonomy and increased dependence on computer-provided information needed to perform routine tasks, as well as time- and safety critical tasks. Such a system will require a single, common interface that is easy to learn and use and accesses key information from all relevant vehicle/habitat systems to enable task performance in both nominal and emergency conditions. Understanding of multimodal display technologies and their interactions will help to inform interface guidelines for LDEMs. The scope of the current report is an analysis of potential multimodal display technologies for long duration missions and, in particular, will focus on their potential role in EVA activities. The review will address multimodal (combined visual, auditory and/or tactile) displays investigated by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), industry, and Department of Defense (DoD). It also considers the need for adaptive information systems to accommodate a variety of operational contexts such as crew status (e.g., fatigue, workload level) and task environment (e.g., EVA, habitat, rover, spacecraft). Current approaches to guidelines and best practices for combining modalities for the most effective information displays are also reviewed. Potential issues in developing interface guidelines for LDEMs are briefly considered.

multimodal displays↗

Non-dimensional performance and safety parameters for heat pipes

The use of heat pipes in safety-critical systems such as nuclear microreactors dictates the development of generalized, practical, scalable performance and safety parameters. Traditional dimensional metrics, while informative, lack the universality required for comparative analysis across varying designs and operating regimes. Here, this work introduces a comprehensive set of non-dimensional parameters to characterize heat pipe performance and safety, including capillary performance, effective thermal conductivity, response time, exergetic efficiency, allowable temperature gradients, allowable rate of temperature change, priming coefficients, and factor of safety. A reference heat pipe design representative of microreactor applications was analyzed via the developed parameters using both traditional analytical models and Sockeye simulations under transient and steady-state conditions. Sodium, potassium, and water were evaluated as working fluids to demonstrate the applicability of the framework across a broad temperature range. The proposed non-dimensional parameters effectively captured key thermal-hydraulic behaviors and safety concerns, as was demonstrated via Sockeye simulations. This framework supports the development of design optimization strategies, operational protocols, and safety assurance practices for advanced reactor systems and other high-reliability applications.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

A Safety and Management Framework to Enable Automated Mobility Districts in Urban Areas

Automated mobility technology is beginning to emerge as a viable means to create sustainable and effective public mobility systems within denser urban environments. Automated mobility districts (AMDs) describe major urban districts or activity centers in which deployments of multiple automated vehicle (AV) transit and ride-hailing fleets are supported to meet public mobility needs. The authors put forward a framework to enable AMDs and their governing and management jurisdictional authorities to manage safety of AV operations based on lessons learned from the last century of automated guideway transit and roadway intersection traffic control systems. The essential concept is that of operational management and safety-critical control of multiple AV fleets using a “system-of-systems” approach to system safety analysis. The safety analysis would focus on safe passage of the AV fleet vehicles through complex roadway intersections and junctions, especially in the presence of other non-automated modes such as pedestrians and manually operated vehicles.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗