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Assimilation of Altimeter Data into a Quasigeostrophic Model of the Gulf Stream System: Assimilation Results - Part 2

The improvement in the climatological behavior of a numerical model as a consequence of the assimilation of surface data is investigated. The model used for this study is a quasigeostrophic (QG) model of the Gulf Stream region. The data that have been assimilated are maps of sea surface height that have been obtained as the superposition of sea surface height variability deduced from the Geosat altimeter measurements and a mean field constructed from historical hydrographic data. The method used for assimilating the data is the nudging technique. Nudging has been implemented in such a way as to achieve a high degree of convergence of the surface model fields toward the observations. Comparisons of the assimilation results with available in situ observations show a significant improvement in the degree of realism of the climatological model behavior, with respect to the model in which no data are assimilated. The remaining discrepancies in the model mean circulation seem to be mainly associated with deficiencies in the mean component of the surface data that are assimilated. On the other hand, the possibility of building into the model more realistic eddy characteristics through the assimilation of the surface eddy field proves very successful in driving components of the mean model circulation that are in relatively good agreement with the available observations. Comparisons with current meter time series during a time period partially overlapping the Geosat mission show that the model is able to 'correctly' extrapolate the instantaneous surface eddy signals to depths of approximately 1500 m. The correlation coefficient between current meter and model time series varies from values close to 0.7 in the top 1500 m to values as low as 0.1-0.2 in the deep ocean.

Capotondi, Antonietta↗

Aerobic Fitness Does Not Contribute to Prediction of Orthostatic Intolerance

Several investigations have suggested that orthostatic tolerance may be inversely related to aerobic fitness (VO (sub 2max)). To test this hypothesis, 18 males (age 29 to 51 yr) underwent both treadmill VO(sub 2max) determination and graded lower body negative pressures (LBNP) exposure to tolerance. VO(2max) was measured during the last minute of a Bruce treadmill protocol. LBNP was terminated based on pre-syncopal symptoms and LBNP tolerance (peak LBNP) was expressed as the cumulative product of LBNP and time (torr-min). Changes in heart rate, stroke volume cardiac output, blood pressure and impedance rheographic indices of mid-thigh-leg initial accumulation were measured at rest and during the final minute of LBNP. For all 18 subjects, mean (plus or minus SE) fluid accumulation index and leg venous compliance index at peak LBNP were 139 plus or minus 3.9 plus or minus 0.4 ml-torr-min(exp -2) x 10(exp 3), respectively. Pearson product-moment correlations and step-wise linear regression were used to investigate relationships with peak LBNP. Variables associated with endurance training, such as VO(sub 2max) and percent body fat were not found to correlate significantly (P is less than 0.05) with peak LBNP and did not add sufficiently to the prediction of peak LBNP to be included in the step-wise regression model. The step-wise regression model included only fluid accumulation index leg venous compliance index, and blood volume and resulted in a squared multiple correlation coefficient of 0.978. These data do not support the hypothesis that orthostatic tolerance as measured by LBNP is lower in individuals with high aerobic fitness.

Convertino, Victor A.↗

The Use of a Satellite Climatological Data Set to Infer Large Scale Three Dimensional Flow Characteristics

Ever since the first satellite image loops from the 6.3 micron water vapor channel on the METEOSAT-1 in 1978, there have been numerous efforts (many to a great degree of success) to relate the water vapor radiance patterns to familiar atmospheric dynamic quantities. The realization of these efforts is becoming evident with the merging of satellite derived winds into predictive models (Velden et al., 1997; Swadley and Goerss, 1989). Another parameter that has been quantified from satellite water vapor channel measurements is upper tropospheric relative humidity (UTH) (e.g., Soden and Bretherton, 1996; Schmetz and Turpeinen, 1988). These humidity measurements, in turn, can be used to quantify upper tropospheric water vapor and its transport to more accurately diagnose climate changes (Lerner et al., 1998; Schmetz et al. 1995a) and quantify radiative processes in the upper troposphere. Also apparent in water vapor imagery animations are regions of subsiding and ascending air flow. Indeed, a component of the translated motions we observe are due to vertical velocities. The few attempts at exploiting this information have been met with a fair degree of success. Picon and Desbois (1990) statistically related Meteosat monthly mean water vapor radiances to six standard pressure levels of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) model vertical velocities and found correlation coefficients of about 0.50 or less. This paper presents some preliminary results of viewing climatological satellite water vapor data in a different fashion. Specifically, we attempt to infer the three dimensional flow characteristics of the mid- to upper troposphere as portrayed by GOES VAS during the warm ENSO event (1987) and a subsequent cold period in 1998.

Lerner, Jeffrey A.↗

Sound Pressures and Correlations of Noise on the Fuselage of a Jet Aircraft in Flight

Tests were conducted at altitudes of 10,000, 20,000, and 30,000 feet at speeds of Mach 0.4, 0.6, and O.8. It was found that the sound pressure levels on the aft fuselage of a jet aircraft in flight can be estimated using an equation involving the true airspeed and the free air density. The cross-correlation coefficient over a spacing of 2.5 feet was generalized with Strouhal number. The spectrum of the noise in flight is comparatively flat up to 10,000 cycles per second.

Shattuck, Russell D.↗

Central Plasma Sheet Ion Properties as Inferred from Ionospheric Observations

A method of inferring central plasma sheet (CPS) temperature, density, and pressure from ionospheric observations is developed. The advantage of this method over in situ measurements is that the CPS can be studied in its entirely, rather than only in fragments. As a result, for the first time, comprehensive two-dimensional equatorial maps of CPS pressure, density, and temperature within the isotropic plasma sheet are produced. These particle properties are calculated from data taken by the Special Sensor for Precipitating Particles, version 4 (SSJ4) particle instruments onboard DMSP F8, F9, F10, and F11 satellites during the entire year of 1992. Ion spectra occurring in conjunction with electron acceleration events are specifically excluded. Because of the variability of magnetotail stretching, the mapping to the plasma sheet is done using a modified Tsyganenko [1989] magnetic field model (T89) adjusted to agree with the actual magnetotail stretch at observation time. The latter is inferred with a high degree of accuracy (correlation coefficient -0.9) from the latitude of the DMSP b2i boundary (equivalent to the ion isotropy boundary). The results show that temperature, pressure, and density all exhibit dawn-dusk asymmetries unresolved with previous measurements. The ion temperature peaks near the midnight meridian. This peak, which has been associated with bursty bulk flow events, widens in the Y direction with increased activity. The temperature is higher at dusk than at dawn, and this asymmetry increases with decreasing distance from the Earth. In contrast, the density is higher at dawn than at dusk, and there appears to be a density enhancement in the low-latitude boundary layer regions which increases with decreasing magnetic activity. In the near-Earth regions, the pressure is higher at dusk than at dawn, but this asymmetry weakens with increasing distance from the Earth and may even reverse so that at distances X less than approx. 10 to -12 R(sub E), depending on magnetic activity, the dawn sector has slightly higher pressure. The temperature and density asymmetries in the near-Earth region are consistent with the ion westward gradient/curvature drift as the ions ExB convect earthward. When the solar wind dynamic pressure increases, CPS density and pressure appear to increase, but the temperature remains relatively constant. Comparison with previously published work indicates good agreement between the inferred pressure, temperature, and density and those obtained from in situ data. This new method should provide a continuous mechanism to monitor the pressure, temperature, and density in the magnetotail with unprecedented comprehensiveness.

Wing, Simon↗

Orbital Debris Impact Damage to Reusable Launch Vehicles

In an effort by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), hypervelocity impact tests were performed on thermal protection systems (TPS) applied on the external surfaces of reusable launch vehicles (RLV) to determine the potential damage from orbital debris impacts. Three TPS types were tested, bonded to composite structures representing RLV fuel tank walls. The three heat shield materials tested were Alumina-Enhanced Thermal Barrier-12 (AETB-12), Flexible Reusable Surface Insulation (FRSI), and Advanced Flexible Reusable Surface Insulation (AFRSI). Using this test data, predictor equations were developed for the entry hole diameters in the three TPS materials, with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.69 to 0.86. Possible methods are proposed for approximating damage occurring at expected orbital impact velocities higher than tested, with references to other published work.

Robinson, Jennifer H.↗

Postglacial Rebound from VLBI Geodesy: On Establishing Vertical Reference

Difficulty in establishing a reference frame fixed to the earth's interior complicates the measurement of the vertical (radial) motions of the surface. I propose that a useful reference frame for vertical motions is that found by minimizing differences between vertical motions observed with VLBI [Ma and Ryan] and predictions from postglacial rebound predictions [Peltier]. The optimal translation of the geocenter is 1.7mm/year toward 36degN, 111degE when determined from the motions of 10 VLBI sites. This translation gives a better fit of observations to predictions than does the VLBI reference frame used by Ma and Ryan, but the improvement is statistically insignificant. The root mean square of differences decreases 20% to 0.73 mm/yr and the correlation coefficient increases from 0.76 to 0.87. Postglacial rebound is evident in the uplift of points in Sweden and Ontario that were beneath the ancient ice sheets of Fennoscandia and Canada, and in the subsidence of points in the northeastern U.S., Germany, and Alaska that were around the periphery of the ancient ice sheets.

Argus, Donald F.↗

Trends in Antarctic Surface Temperatures and Ice Extent from Satellite and Surface Observations

Surface air temperatures observed from stations around Antarctica have indicated predominantly positive trends which are as high as 0.4K per decade along the Antarctic Peninsula. Since the average air temperature during summer in the West Antarctic region is about -6 K, and since most of the stations are near coastal regions, it is important to know whether such trends are due to a local or large scale phenomenon. We analyzed about 19 years of infrared satellite data (1979-1997) to obtain a spatially detailed study of the variability of surface temperatures over the entire Antarctic region. We also analyzed potential impact of temperature changes over the sea ice cover using co-registered and nearly coincident microwave satellite data. The surface temperatures inferred from infrared data are shown to agree well with those observed from the limited number of Antarctic station data with a correlation coefficient of 0.98 and a standard deviation of less than 3K. The 19-year temperature data set shows positive trends of 0.12, 0.68, and 0.41 C per decade in ocean, sea ice and ice sheet surfaces, respectively. The sensitivity of the trend to record length was studied, using long term station data sets, and the results show that the trends start to stabilize at around 2 decades which is about the record length of satellite data. However, interannual fluctuations of the temperatures are large, especially in the ice sheets, and the 95% confidence level for the trends ranges from 0.12 to 1.22 for sea ice and from -0.74 to 1.55 C per decade for the ice sheet. In the sea ice regions, the position of the ice edge in winter with respect to the northernmost position of sea ice during the study period is also shown to be influenced by alternating warm and cold anomalies around the continent. This pattern is similar to that suggested by the presence of the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW) but the wavenumber appears to be predominantly mode 3 (instead of reported mode 2) for the Antarctic region. Unexpectedly, trends in the sea ice extent are found to be positive in most Antarctic sectors during the same period with the exception of the Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas region.

Comisc, J. C.↗

The Estimation Surface Latent Heat Flux Over the Ocean and its Relationship to Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer (MABL) Structure

A new technique combining active and passive remote sensing instruments for the estimation of surface latent heat flux over the ocean is presented. This synergistic method utilizes aerosol lidar backscatter data, multi-channel infrared radiometer data and microwave scatterometer data acquired onboard the NASA P-3B research aircraft during an extended field campaign over the Atlantic ocean in support of the Lidar In-space Technology Experiment (LITE) in September of 1994. The 10 meter wind speed derived from the scatterometers and the lidar-radiometer inferred near-surface moisture are used to obtain an estimate of the surface flux of moisture via bulk aerodynamic formulae. The results are compared with the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) daily average latent heat flux and show reasonable agreement. However, the SSM/I values are biased high by about 30 W/sq m. In addition, the MABL height, entrainment zone thickness and integrated lidar backscatter intensity are computed from the lidar data and compared with the magnitude of the surface fluxes. The results show that the surface latent heat flux is most strongly correlated with entrainment zone top, bottom and the integrated MABL lidar backscatter, with corresponding correlation coefficients of 0.62, 0.67 and 0.61, respectively.

Palm, Stephen P.↗

Molecular Static Third-Order Polarizabilities of Carbon-Cage Fullerene and Their Correlation with Three Geometric Properties: Symmetry, Aromaticity, and Size

The static third-order polarizabilities (gamma) of C60, C70, five isomers of C78 and two isomers of C84 were analyzed in terms of three properties, from a geometric point of view: symmetry, aromaticity and size. The polarizability values were based on the finite field approximation using a semiempirical Hamiltonian (AM1) and applied to molecular structures obtained from density functional theory calculations. Symmetry was characterized by the molecular group order. The selection of 6-member rings as aromatic was determined from an analysis of bond lengths. Maximum interatomic distance and surface area were the parameters considered with respect to size. Based on triple linear regression analysis, it was found that the static linear polarizability (alpha) and gamma in these molecules respond differently to geometrical properties: alpha depends almost exclusively on surface area while gamma is affected by a combination of number of aromatic rings, length and group order, in decreasing importance. In the case of alpha, valence electron contributions provide the same information as all-electron estimates. For gamma, the best correlation coefficients are obtained when all-electron estimates are used and when the dependent parameter is ln(gamma) instead of gamma.

Moore, C. E.↗

Modeled Impact of Cirrus Cloud Increases Along Aircraft Flight Paths

The potential impact of contrails and alterations in the lifetime of background cirrus due to subsonic airplane water and aerosol emissions has been investigated in a set of experiments using the GISS GCM connected to a q-flux ocean. Cirrus clouds at a height of 12-15km, with an optical thickness of 0.33, were input to the model "x" percentage of clear-sky occasions along subsonic aircraft flight paths, where x is varied from .05% to 6%. Two types of experiments were performed: one with the percentage cirrus cloud increase independent of flight density, as long as a certain minimum density was exceeded; the other with the percentage related to the density of fuel expenditure. The overall climate impact was similar with the two approaches, due to the feedbacks of the climate system. Fifty years were run for eight such experiments, with the following conclusions based on the stable results from years 30-50 for each. The experiments show that adding cirrus to the upper troposphere results in a stabilization of the atmosphere, which leads to some decrease in cloud cover at levels below the insertion altitude. Considering then the total effect on upper level cloud cover (above 5 km altitude), the equilibrium global mean temperature response shows that altering high level clouds by 1% changes the global mean temperature by 0.43C. The response is highly linear (linear correlation coefficient of 0.996) for high cloud cover changes between 0. 1% and 5%. The effect is amplified in the Northern Hemisphere, more so with greater cloud cover change. The temperature effect maximizes around 10 km (at greater than 40C warming with a 4.8% increase in upper level clouds), again more so with greater warming. The high cloud cover change shows the flight path influence most clearly with the smallest warming magnitudes; with greater warming, the model feedbacks introduce a strong tropical response. Similarly, the surface temperature response is dominated by the feedbacks, and shows little geographical relationship to the high cloud input. Considering whether these effects would be observable, changing upper level cloud cover by as little as 0.4% produces warming greater than 2 standard deviations in the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) channels 4, 2 and 2r, in flight path regions and in the subtropics. Despite the simplified nature of these experiments, the results emphasize the sensitivity of the modeled climate to high level cloud cover changes, and thus the potential ability of aircraft to influence climate by altering clouds in the upper troposphere.

Rind, David↗

Near-Surface Flow Fields Deduced Using Correlation Tracking and Time-Distance Analysis

Near-photospheric flow fields on the Sun are deduced using two independent methods applied to the same time series of velocity images observed by SOI-MDI on SOHO. Differences in travel times between f modes entering and leaving each pixel measured using time-distance helioseismology are used to determine sites of supergranular outflows. Alternatively, correlation tracking analysis of mesogranular scales of motion applied to the same time series is used to deduce the near-surface flow field. These two approaches provide the means to assess the patterns and evolution of horizontal flows on supergranular scales even near disk center, which is not feasible with direct line-of-sight Doppler measurements. We find that the locations of the supergranular outflows seen in flow fields generated from correlation tracking coincide well with the locations of the outflows determined from the time-distance analysis, with a mean correlation coefficient after smoothing of bar-r(sub s) = 0.840. Near-surface velocity field measurements can used to study the evolution of the supergranular network, as merging and splitting events are observed to occur in these images. The data consist of one 2048-minute time series of high-resolution (0.6" pixels) line-of-sight velocity images taken by MDI on 1997 January 16-18 at a cadence of one minute.

DeRosa, Marc↗

An Assessment of the Regional Distribution of the Oxygen-Isotope Ratio in Northeastern Canada

A compilation of mean values of the oxygen-isotope ratio relative to standard mean ocean Water for 22 sites representative of conditions in north-eastern Canada is complemented with data on mean annual surface temperature, latitude, surface elevation, and mean annual shortest distance to open ocean denoted by the 10% sea-ice concentration boundary. Stepwise regression analysis is used to develop a multivariate model suitable to infer the distribution of 6 1"0 in an area of complex topography and possibly mixed source of advected water vapor. The best model is produced by a run in the backward mode at the 95% confidence level in which only temperature, latitude and distance to the open ocean remain in the model (the correlation coefficient is 0.915, the adjusted coefficient of determination is 0.809, the root mean square residual is 1.62). This model is similar to the best 6180 predictive model derived elsewhere for Greenland, suggesting a common principal source of advected moisture.

Giovinetto, Mario B.↗

Rainfall Estimation Over Tropical Oceans: Area Average Rain Rate - 1

Multichannel dual polarization microwave radiometer SSM/I observations over oceans do not contain sufficient information to differentiate quantitatively the rain from other hydrometeors on a scale comparable to the radiometer field of view (approx. 30 km). For this reason we have developed a method to retrieve average rain rate over a mesoscale grid box of approx. 300 x 300 sq km area over the TOGA COARE region where simultaneous radiometer and radar observations are available for four months (Nov. 92 to Feb. 93). The rain area in the grid box, inferred from the scattering depression due to hydrometeors in the 85 Ghz brightness temperature, constitutes a key parameter in this method. Then the spectral and polarization information contained in all the channels of the SSM/I is utilized to deduce a second parameter. This is the ratio S/E of scattering index S, and emission index E calculated from the SSM/I data. The rain rate retrieved from this method over the mesoscale area can reproduce the radar observed rain rate with a correlation coefficient of about 0.85. Furthermore monthly total rainfall estimated from this method over that area has an average error of about 15%.

Cuddapah, Prabhakara↗

A Microwave Technique for Mapping Ice Temperature in the Arctic Seasonal Sea Ice Zone

A technique for deriving ice temperature in the Arctic seasonal sea ice zone from passive microwave radiances has been developed. The algorithm operates on brightness temperatures derived from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) and uses ice concentration and type from a previously developed thin ice algorithm to estimate the surface emissivity. Comparisons of the microwave derived temperatures with estimates derived from infrared imagery of the Bering Strait yield a correlation coefficient of 0.93 and an RMS difference of 2.1 K when coastal and cloud contaminated pixels are removed. SSM/I temperatures were also compared with a time series of air temperature observations from Gambell on St. Lawrence Island and from Point Barrow, AK weather stations. These comparisons indicate that the relationship between the air temperature and the ice temperature depends on ice type.

St.Germain, Karen M.↗

Kursk Magnetic Anomaly at Satellite Altitude: Revisited with the Orsted Satellite

The Kursk Magnetic Anomaly (KMA) of Russia (51 deg north, 37 deg east) has long been recognized as one of the largest magnetic anomalies on Earth. It is associated with the massive iron-ore formations of this region, however, model studies have revealed that the relationship between the two is not obvious. In an early effort to demonstrate the validity of Magsat data for crustal research a detailed study of the KMA, at an average altitude of 350 km and the surrounding region was made. They recorded a 27 nT high and a -9 nT low giving a 37 nT peak-to-trough anomaly over the immediate area of the KMA. Despite the much higher altitude of Orsted (620 to 850 km) we revisited the KMA to determine if this mission would also be able to record an associated anomalous crustal signature. The Orsted profiles we selected were from April to August 1999. From these data we chose those with an altitude range of 644 to 700 km and they were subsequently gridded, by least-squares collocation, to a mean elevation of 660 km. Both ascending and descending data were examined and signals common to both were extracted and averaged. A correlation coefficient between these two orbit orientations of 0.82 was computed. The quadrant-swapping method of Kim et al. was applied. Removal of the main geomagnetic field was accomplished with a polynomial fitting procedure. A positive anomaly of >2.5 nT with ari associated negative of <-0.5 nT for a >3 nT peak-to-trough range were computed. These Magsat and Orsted results are consistent with the decay of a dipole field over the studied altitude range. Significant differences between these two anomaly fields are due to the greater number of orbit profiles and therefore greater number of intersecting orbits (ascending and descending) available in the Orsted compilation. Of the four largest amplitude anomalies in the Orsted field three are present in the Magsat map. The fourth (>2.5 nT), however, is associated with the Belorussian-Lithuanian anteclise. This sugaests that additional geologic information may be apparent in the new Orsted field.

Taylor, Patrick T.↗

The Estimation of Surface Latent Heat Flux Over the Ocean and its Relationship to Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer (MABL) Structure

A new technique combining active and passive remote sensing instruments for the estimation of surface latent heat flux over the ocean is presented. This synergistic method uses aerosol lidar backscatter data, multi-channel infrared radiometer data and microwave scatterometer data acquired onboard the NASA P-3B research aircraft during an extended field campaign over the Atlantic ocean in support of the Lidar In-space Technology Experiment (LITE) in September of 1994. The 10 meter wind speed derived from the scatterometers and the lidar-radiometer inferred near-surface moisture are used to obtain an estimate of the surface flux of moisture via bulk aerodynamic formulae. The results are compared with the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) daily average latent heat flux and show reasonable agreement with an rms error and bias of about 50 and 25 W per square meters, respectively. In addition, the MABL height, entrainment zone thickness and integrated lidar backscatter intensity are computed from the lidar data and compared with the magnitude of the surface fluxes. The results show that the surface latent heat flux is most strongly correlated with entrainment zone top, bottom and the integrated MABL lidar backscatter, with corresponding correlation coefficients of 0.62, 0.67 and 0.61, respectively.

Palm, Stephen P.↗

Validation and Development of the GPCP Experimental One-Degree Daily (1DD) Global Precipitation Product

The One-Degree Daily (1DD) precipitation dataset has been developed for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and is currently in beta test preparatory to release as an official GPCP product. The 1DD provides a globally-complete, observation-only estimate of precipitation on a daily 1 deg. x 1 deg. grid for the period 1997 through early 2000 (by the time of the conference). In the latitude band 40N-40S the 1DD uses the Threshold-Matched Precipitation Index (TMPI), a GPI-like IR product with the pixel-level T(sub b) threshold and (single) conditional rain rate determined locally for each month by the frequency of precipitation in the GPROF SSM/I product and by, the precipitation amount in the GPCP monthly satellite-gauge (SG) combination. Outside 40N-40S the 1DD uses a scaled TOVS precipitation estimate that has month-by-month adjustments based on the TMPI and the SG. Early validation results are encouraging. The 1DD shows relatively large scatter about the daily validation values in individual grid boxes, as expected for a technique that depends on cloud-sensing schemes such as the TMPI and TOVS. On the other hand, the time series of 1DD shows good correlation with validation in individual boxes. For example, the 1997-1998 time series of 1DD and Oklahoma Mesonet values in a grid box in northeastern Oklahoma have the correlation coefficient = 0.73. Looking more carefully at these two time series, the number of raining days for the 1DD is within 7% of the Mesonet value, while the distribution of daily rain values is very similar. Other tests indicate that area- or time-averaging improve the error characteristics, making the data set highly attractive to users interested in stream flow, short-term regional climatology, and model comparisons. The second generation of the 1DD product is currently under development; it is designed to directly incorporate TRMM and other high-quality precipitation estimates. These data are generally sparse because they are observed by low-orbit satellites, so a fair amount of work must be devoted to analyzing the effect of data boundaries. This work is laying, the groundwork for effective use of the NASA Global Precipitation Mission, which will have full Global coverage by low-orbit passive microwave satellites every three hours.

Huffman, George J.↗