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GASPS--A Herschel Survey of Gas and Dust in Protoplanetary Disks: Summary and Initial Statistics

We describe a large-scale far-infrared line and continuum survey of protoplanetary disk through to young debris disk systems carried out using the ACS instrument on the Herschel Space Observatory. This Open Time Key program, known as GASPS (Gas Survey of Protoplanetary Systems), targeted approx. 250 young stars in narrow wavelength regions covering the [OI] fine structure line at 63 micron the brightest far-infrared line in such objects. A subset of the brightest targets were also surveyed in [OI]145 micron, [CII] at 157 μm, as well as several transitions of H2O and high-excitation CO lines at selected wavelengths between 78 and 180 micron. Additionally, GASPS included continuum photometry at 70, 100 and 160 micron, around the peak of the dust emission. The targets were SED Class II– III T Tauri stars and debris disks from seven nearby young associations, along with a comparable sample of isolated Herbig AeBe stars. The aim was to study the global gas and dust content in a wide sample of circumstellar disks, combining the results with models in a systematic way. In this overview paper we review the scientific aims, target selection and observing strategy of the program. We summarize some of the initial results, showing line identifications, listing the detections, and giving a first statistical study of line detectability. The [OI] line at 63 micron was the brightest line seen in almost all objects, by a factor of ∼10. Overall [OI] 63 micron detection rates were 49%, with 100% of HAeBe stars and 43% of T Tauri stars detected. A comparison with published disk dust masses (derived mainly from sub-mm continuum, assuming standard values of the mm mass opacity) shows a dust mass threshold for [OI] 63 μm detection of approx.10(exp -5) Solar M.. Normalizing to a distance of 140 pc, 84% of objects with dust masses ≥10 (exp -5) Solar M can be detected in this line in the present survey; 32% of those of mass 10(exp -6) – 10 (exp -5) Solar M, and only a very small number of unusual objects with lower masses can be detected. This is consistent with models with a moderate UV excess and disk flaring. For a given disk mass, [OI] detectability is lower for M stars compared with earlier spectral types. Both the continuum and line emission was, in most systems, spatially and spectrally unresolved and centered on the star, suggesting that emission in most cases was from the disk. Approximately 10 objects showed resolved emission, most likely from outflows. In the GASPS sample, [OI] detection rates in T Tauri associations in the 0.3–4 Myr age range were approx. 50%. For each association in the 5–20 Myr age range, approx. 2 stars remain detectable in [OI] 63 micron, and no systems were detected in associations with age >20 Myr. Comparing with the total number of young stars in each association, and assuming a ISM-like gas/dust ratio, this indicates that approx. 18% of stars retain a gas-rich disk of total mass approx. Jupiter- M for 1–4 Myr, 1–7% keep such disks for 5–10 Myr, but none are detected beyond 10–20 Myr. The brightest [OI] objects from GASPS were also observed in [OI]145 micron, [CII]157 micron and CO J = 18- 17, with detection rates of 20–40%. Detection of the [CII] line was not correlated with disk mass, suggesting it arises more commonly from a compact remnant envelope.

Herschel Space Observatory↗

Current Status and Future Challenges in Risk-Based Radiation Engineering

This presentation covers the basis and challenges for radiation effects in electronic systems. The three main types of radiation effects in electronics are: 1) total ionizing dose (TID), 2) total non-ionizing dose (TNID) / displacement damage dose (DDD), and 3) single-event effect (SEE). Some content on relevant examples of effects, current concerns, and possible environmental model-driven solutions are also included.

Total Ionizing Dose (TID)↗

Normalizing Resource Identifiers using Lexicons in the Global Change Information System: Linking Earth Science Identifiers, Concepts, and Communities

Earth Science informatics involves collaboration between multiple groups of people with diverse specializations and goals,often using variations in terminology to refer to common resources. The uniformity of the resource identifiers often does not cross organizational boundaries. Because of this, permanent, widely used, unambiguous identifiers for resources are elusive. We examine real world cases of changing and inconsistent identifiers which inherently work against persistence and uniformity. We also present a solution which mediates factors in these situations; namely the creation of lexicons:mappings of sets of terms to URIs which are curated within the Global Change Information System (GCIS). We discuss aspects of the GCIS which facilitate the use of lexicons: an information model which disambiguates resources, a RESTful API which provides metadata through content-negotiation, and a strategy for long term curation of URIs, including mechanisms for handling changes to URIs and variations in terms used by different communities while providing persistent URIs and preserving relationships between resources We provide working definitions of terms,contexts, and lexicons, and relate them to the practical challenges of disambiguation and curation. We also discuss the mechanisms employed and architecture of the GCIS, and how these choices facilitate representation of persistent identifiers and mappings of them to identifiers used colloquially within various earth science communities of practice.

Linkded Data↗

Enhancing GPM Passive and Combined Microwave Algorithms with Dynamic Surface Information for Drizzle Retrieval and Improved Precipitation Detection Over Land

Following the 2014 launch of the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM), an unprecedented combination of coincident active and passive microwave observations are available for state of the art precipitation retrieval. The GPM Combined Algorithm forms the backbone of this effort, optimizing geophysical variables for agreement with the full suite of multi-spectral information content. These combined retrievals are then utilized, along with a radiative transfer model, as a database applied for retrievals across a constellation of passive microwave radiometers of varying frequencies. By keeping such retrievals related through the transfer standard of the combined algorithm, level 3 products such as the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) are able to provide consistent global products for users at the higher temporal resolution required for hydrological applications. In initial versions of the combined product, precipitation retrievals are carried out only in the presence of a signal from the active radar. As a result, light precipitation and drizzle below the threshold of DPR sensitivity are not included in any of the products down the chain from the constellation to IMERG. In this work, the effects of enhancing the retrievals with a surface emissivity and non-raining water vapor retrieval using the passive observations are explored. Over both ocean and land, the surface retrieval is used to identify areas with high probability of light precipitation and drizzle which is then quantified using techniques derived from the higher sensitivity CloudSat mission. Results indicate successful inclusion of drizzle in the retrievals that can then be included in the constellation databases, as well as improvement in passive microwave false positive precipitation signals over land in cases where surface scattering was misinterpreted as precipitation signal. The inclusion of the dynamic surface information also creates a more robust, radiometrically consistent retrieval scheme for process studies and hydrologic applications.

Ringerud, Sarah↗

Retrieval of Forest Canopy Parameters for OTTER Using an Optimized Technique

An inversion algorithm based on a nonlinear optimization technique is used to retrieve a subset of forest canopy parameters that can be used in ecosystem modeling. The inversion algorithm uses a parametric model derived from a discrete component forest scattering model which includes all major scattering contributions to radar backscatter. The parametric model, however, is derived for cases where only one mechanism dominates the scattering process, in this case, branch layer volume scattering.The inversion algorithm is shown to be a useful tool in the quantative monitoring of canopy moisture status, as well as a building block of its future versions which will include a more comprehensive set of forest scattering parameters as unknowns.

forest↗

First Optical Constants from 0.4 to 1.6 µm of Titan Aerosol Analogs Produced in the NASA Ames COSmIC Facility and Their Use in a New Analysis of Cassini VIMS Observations

We have determined the real and imaginary refractive indices (n and k, respectively), from the visible to the near infrared (0.4 to 1.6 μm), of five laboratory-generated organic refractory materials produced from gas-phase chemistry with the NASA Ames COSmIC facility. The solid samples were produced using a plasma discharge in the stream of a 200-K supersonic jet-cooled expansion of different gas mixtures to study the impact of the molecular precursors on the solid sample optical properties. Three samples were produced from N2:CH4 (95:5) gas mixtures using three different high voltages (700V, 800V and 1000V) to vary the energy in the plasma discharge. One sample was produced from a N2:CH4:C2H2 (94:5:5:0.5) gas mixture, with a high voltage of 1000 V. The fifth sample was produced in an Ar:CH4 (95:5) gas mixture with a high voltage of 1000 V to produce a nitrogen-free hydrocarbon sample. The optical constants, n and k, of these five samples were determined using spectral reflectance measurements. They appear to be positively correlated with the nitrogen content in the solid sample, i.e., a sample with larger nitrogen content exhibits higher n and k values. We have used these refractive indices as input parameters in a radiative transfer model to analyze Cassini Visible Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIMS) observations of Titan’s atmosphere. The results show that using the tholin samples with higher n and k values (higher nitrogen content) provides a better fit to the observational data than using the samples with lower n and k values (lower nitrogen content). The Titan tholins with higher nitrogen content therefore appear to be more representative of the Titan aerosols observed by VIMS.

Titan Aerosol Analogs↗

Evaluation of the Tau-Omega Model over a Dense Corn Canopy at P- and L-band

As an emerging technique, P-band (0.3-1GHz) may improve soil moisture remote sensing compared to L-band (1.4 GHz) SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) and SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) missions, because of its greater moisture retrieval depth resulting from its longer wavelength. Consequently, a number of tower-based experiments were undertaken in Victoria, Australia, to understand and quantify potential improvements. The study reported here has extended the evaluation of the tau-omega model to a scenario with a dense corn canopy whose vegetation water content reached ~20 kg/m 2 , and compared the soil moisture retrieval performance at P- and L-band. Based on the locally calibrated parameters, the results from both the SCA (Single Channel Algorithm) and DCA (Dual Channel Algorithm) approaches presented a clear reduction in vegetation impact at P-band compared to L-band. While the root-mean-square error (RMSE) for P-band did not achieve the 0.04-m 3 /m 3 target accuracy of SMOS and SMAP, i.e., 0.054 m 3 /m 3 for the SCA and 0.074 m 3 /m 3 for the DCA, this performance can be regarded as acceptable considering the extremely high vegetation water content. In comparison, the RMSEs at L-band were larger than 0.1 m 3 /m 3 for both the SCA and the DCA approaches. Additionally, DCA performed better in correlation coefficient and unbiased RMSE, while SCA performed better in RMSE at P-band due to the larger bias when using DCA. Moreover, the calibrated vegetation parameters at P-band were found to apply to broader conditions than those at L-band, likely due to the reduced vegetation impact.

P-band↗

An overview of the neuron ring model

The Neuron Ring model employs an avalanche structure with two important distinctions at the neuron level. Each neuron has two memory latches; one traps maximum neuronal activation during pattern presentation, and the other records the time of latch content change. The latches filter short term memory. In the process, they preserve length 1 snapshots of activation theory history. The model finds utility in pattern classification. Its synaptic weights are first conditioned with sample spectra. The model then receives a test or unknown signal. The objective is to identify the sample closest to the test signal. Class decision follows complete presentation of the test data. The decision maker relies exclusively on the latch contents. Presented here is an overview of the Neuron Ring at the seminar level.

Taber, Rod↗

Effects of Vegetation and of Heat and Vapor Fluxes from Soil on Snowpack Evolution and Radiobrightness

The radiobrightness of a snowpack is strongly linked to the snow moisture content profile, to the point that the only operational inversion algorithms require dry snow. Forward dynamic models do not include the effects of freezing and thawing of the soil beneath the snowpack and the effect of vegetation within the snow or above the snow. To get a more realistic description of the evolution of the snowpack, we reported an addition to the Snow-Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere- Transfer (SSVAT) model, wherein we coupled soil processes of the Land Surface Process (LSP) model with the snow model SNTHERM. In the near future we will be adding a radiobrightness prediction based on the modeled moisture, temperature and snow grain size profiles. The initial investigations with this SSVAT for a late winter and early spring snow pack indicate that soil processes warm the snowpack and the soil. Vapor diffusion needs to be considered whenever the ground is thawed. In the early spring, heat flow from the ground into a snow and a strong temperature gradient across the snow lead to thermal convection. The buried vegetation can be ignored for a late winter snow pack. The warmer surface snow temperature will affect radiobrightness since it is most sensitive to snow surface characteristics. Comparison to data shows that SSVAT provides a more realistic representation of the temperature and moisture profiles in the snowpack and its underlying soil than SNTHERM. The radiobrightness module will be optimized for the prediction of brightness when the snow is moist. The liquid water content of snow causes considerable absorption compared to dry snow, and so longer wavelengths are likely to be most revealing as to the state of a moist snowpack. For volumetric moisture contents below about 7% (the pendular regime), the water forms rings around the contact points between snow grains. Electrostatic modeling of these pendular rings shows that the absorption of these rings is significantly higher than a sphere of the same volume. The first implementation of the radiobrightness module will therefore be a simple radiative transfer model without scattering.

soil↗

Precipitating Snow Retrievals from Combined Airborne Cloud Radar and Millimeter-Wave Radiometer Observations

An algorithm for retrieving snow over oceans from combined cloud radar and millimeter-wave radiometer observations is developed. The algorithm involves the use of physical models to simulate cloud radar and millimeter-wave radiometer observations from basic atmospheric variables such as hydrometeor content, temperature, and relative humidity profiles and is based on an optimal estimation technique to retrieve these variables from actual observations. A high-resolution simulation of a lake-effect snowstorm by a cloud-resolving model is used to test the algorithm. That is, synthetic observations are generated from the output of the cloud numerical model, and the retrieval algorithm is applied to the synthetic data. The algorithm performance is assessed by comparing the retrievals with the reference variables used in synthesizing the observations. The synthetic observation experiment indicates good performance of the retrieval algorithm. The algorithm is also applied to real observations from the Wakasa Bay field experiment that took place over the Sea of Japan in January and February 2003. The application of the retrieval algorithm to data from the field experiment yields snow estimates that are consistent with both the cloud radar and radiometer observations.

Grecu, Mircea↗

Microphysical modeling of cirrus. 2: Sensitivity studies

The one-dimensional cirrus model described in part 1 of this issue has been used to study the sensitivity of simulated cirrus microphysical and radiative properties to poorly known model parameters, poorly understood physical processes, and environmental conditions. Model parameters and physical processes investigated include nucleation rate, mode of nucleation (e.g., homogeneous freezing of aerosols and liquid droplets or heterogeneous deposition), ice crystal shape, and coagulation. These studies suggest that the leading sources of uncertainty in the model are the phase change (liquid-solid) energy barrier and the ice-water surface energy which dominate the homogeneous freezing nucleation rate and the coagulation sticking efficiency at low temperatures which controls the production of large ice crystals (radii greater than 100 mcirons). Environmental conditions considered in sensitivity tests were CN size distribution, vertical wind speed, and cloud height. We found that (unlike stratus clouds) variations in the total number of condensation nuclei (NC) have little effect on cirrus microphysical and radiative properties, since nucleation occurs only on the largest CN at the tail of the size distribution. The total number of ice crystals which nucleate has little or no relationship to the number of CN present and depends primarily on the temperature and the cooling rate. Stronger updrafts (more rapid cooling) generate higher ice number densities, ice water content, cloud optical depth, and net radiative forcing. Increasing the height of the clouds in the model leads to an increase in ice number density, a decrease in effective radius, and a decrease in ice water content. The most prominent effect of increasing cloud height was a rapid increase in the net cloud radiative forcing which can be attributed to the change in cloud temperature as well as change in cloud ice size distributions. It has long been recognized that changes in cloud height or cloud area have the greatest potential for causing feedbacks on climate change. Our results suggest that variations in vertical velocity or cloud microphysical changes associatd with cloud height changes may also be important.

Jensen, Eric J.↗

Variations in Stratospheric Inorganic Chlorine Between 1991 and 2006

So how quickly will the ozone hole recover? This depends on how quickly the chlorine content (Cl2) of the atmosphere will decline. The ozone hole forms over the Antarctic each southern spring (September and October). The extremely small ozone amounts in the ozone hole are there because of chemical reactions of ozone with chlorine. This chlorine originates largely from industrially produced chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) compounds. An international agreement, the Montreal Protocol, is drastically reducing the amount of chlorine-containing compounds that we are releasing into the atmosphere. To be able to attribute changes in stratospheric ozone to changes in chlorine we need to know the distribution of atmospheric chlorine. However, due to a lack of continuous observations of all the key chlorine gases, producing a continuous time series of stratospheric chlorine has not been achieved to date. We have for the first time devised a technique to make a 17-year time series for stratospheric chlorine that uses the long time series of HCl observations made from several space borne instruments and a neural network. The neural networks allow us to both inter-calibrate the various HCl instruments and to infer the total amount of atmospheric chlorine from HCl. These new estimates of Cl, provide a much needed critical test for current global models that currently predict significant differences in both Cl(sub y) and ozone recovery. These models exhibit differences in their projection of the recovery time and our chlorine content time series will help separate the good from the bad in these projections.

Lary, D. J.↗

Estimation of skeletal muscle mass from body creatine content

Procedures have been developed for studying the effect of changes in gravitational loading on skeletal muscle mass through measurements of the body creatine content. These procedures were developed for studies of gravitational scale effects in a four-species model, comprising the hamster, rat, guinea pig, and rabbit, which provides a sufficient range of body size for assessment of allometric parameters. Since intracellular muscle creatine concentration varies among species, and with age within a given species, the concentration values for metabolically mature individuals of these four species were established. The creatine content of the carcass, skin, viscera, smooth muscle, and skeletal muscle was determined for each species. In addition, the skeletal muscle mass of the major body components was determined, as well as the total and fat-free masses of the body and carcass, and the percent skeletal muscle in each. It is concluded that these procedures are particularly useful for studying the effect of gravitational loading on the skeletal muscle content of the animal carcass, which is the principal weight-bearing organ of the body.

Pace, N.↗

Towards an Aviation Large Language Model by Fine-tuning and Evaluating Transformers

In the aviation domain, there are many applications for machine learning and artificial intelligence tools that utilize natural language. For example, there is a desire to know the commonalities in written safety reports such as voluntary post incidents reports or aerial wildfire operations reports to better understand the risks present. Another use-case is the possibility of extracting airspace procedures and constraints currently written in documents such as Letters of Agreement. These applications can benefit from the use of state-of-the-art natural language processing techniques when adapted to the language/phraseology specific to the aviation domain. This paper evaluates the viability of adaptation of NLP tools to the aviation domain by fine-tuning transformer based models using aviation data sets. In 2018, a novel language model based on neural units (also called transformers) was created and became known as “Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers” or BERT. This architecture combined with large amounts of English training data and innovative semi-supervised training tasks set the standard for what would later emerge as Large Language Models. The performance of these models was further improved by hyperparameter tuning and refinement of the semi-supervised training task and resulted in “Robustly Optimized BERT Pre-training Approach through hyperparameter tuning” or RoBERTa models. These pre-trained Large Language Models proved to be useful for a wide variety of natural language processing tasks such as text classification and question answering through a process called fine-tuning. The transformer architecture with pre-trained weights served as the basis with the last few layers replaced with layers fine-tuned to perform a new task e.g., a layer that provides a label for the entire input text. This process of fine-tuning can also be used to adapt the models to new domains; e.g., BioBERT started with the pre-trained BERT model and was completed by additional fine-tuning and training on biomedical documents. Transformer-based architectures can also be used to create rich representations of text called embeddings which can serve as the input to other machine learning models. This allows simpler algorithms such as logistic regression to use context-rich representations of the text while still remaining quick to train and evaluate. In the world of aviation, there is a growing demand for natural language processing and understanding but the domain presents unique challenges. Due to the technical content (and specialized language) of most aviation documents, fine-tuning pre-trained Large Language Models to specific tasks has not met the benchmark on natural language processing tasks set by simpler models trained from scratch on the data. To address this deficiency, this paper evaluates the improvements from fine-tuning a Large Language Model on a large set of aviation documents using the original semi-supervised training tasks before performing specific natural language tasks. In fine-tuning, a domain-specific dataset is used on the original training task but with the pre-trained Large Language Model instead of starting from a random initialization. This approach allows the model to be adapted to the specific domain language without discarding the information gained from training on general English data. This paper utilized two major dataset types to train and assess the RoBERTa fine-tuning performance. The first are 7,057 Letters of Agreement which are Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) documents that formalize airspace operations across the national airspace system. They contain many examples of ‘aviation English’ using domain specific terminology and phrasing which serves as a representative basis to perform the semi-supervised fine-tuning. The second type is the 494 document classification labels to be used for evaluation. This down-stream evaluation aims to show the performance of the fine-tuned model, better understand how much data is needed for an effective fine-tuning, and how fine-tuning can be adapted for different applications in-the domain. After semi-supervised training, evaluation begins by encoding the documents for classification using the fine-tuned RoBERTa model. Then a logistic regression classifier is trained to label the document type and compared against our ground truth labels. This currently leads to a 82.8% accuracy on 10-fold cross validation showing improvement over baseline RoBERTa which achieved 81.0%. We plan to measure the improvements on additional tasks and it is expected that these improvements will lead to more robust models that can tackle the natural language processing challenges present in aviation datasets.

ATM↗

Development, Characterization, and Validation of Elevated-Temperature Constitutive Models: Deformation and Damage

This report provides a brief review of experimentally observed hereditary and nonhereditary material behavior along with background information on standard as well as advanced internal state variable constitutive modeling at elevated temperature. A description of exploratory, characterization, and validation testing is presented along with a detailed outline of what constitutes “sufficient” data content (i.e., quality and quantity) for developing or enhancing, characterizing, and validating a particular sophisticated nonlinear time- and history-dependent (hereditary) class of constitutive models known as GVIPS (generalized viscoplasticity with potential structure). The tests described are necessary to reveal a material’s behavior in the reversible (or viscoelastic) and irreversible (or viscoplastic) regimes, for the identification of both deformation and damage model parameters. Results presented are primarily for metallic materials. In all cases, both uniaxial and multiaxial tests are described, and the linkage between the specific tests and the parameters within the model that can be characterized from the results of these tests are also discussed. Discussion is also provided relative to the role information management must play relative to material data collection, analysis, maintenance, and dissemination. The need for such an information system is particularly important as both analyst and designer move toward utilizations of sophisticated, nonlinear time- and history dependent (hereditary) constitutive models. Lastly, the concept of state space and its utility in understanding and establishing constitutive models is addressed throughout. The intent behind this document is to help both the modeler and experimentalist understand each other’s specific points of view and provide guidance for both model development and characterization. Emphasis has been placed on providing the mechanician with information regarding how tests are performed and what issues to be aware of when interpreting results. It is hoped that experimentalists will take away a new perspective on the types of information that modelers and analysts are looking for from them.

Constitutive Modeling↗

Model study of ATP and ADP buffering, transport of Ca(2+) and Mg(2+), and regulation of ion pumps in ventricular myocyte

We extended the model of the ventricular myocyte by Winslow et al. (Circ. Res 1999, 84:571-586) by incorporating equations for Ca(2+) and Mg(2+) buffering and transport by ATP and ADP and equations for MgATP regulation of ion transporters (Na(+)-K(+) pump, sarcolemmal and sarcoplasmic Ca(2+) pumps). The results indicate that, under normal conditions, Ca(2+) binding by low-affinity ATP and diffusion of CaATP may affect the amplitude and time course of intracellular Ca(2+) signals. The model also suggests that a fall in ATP/ADP ratio significantly reduces sarcoplasmic Ca(2+) content, increases diastolic Ca(2+), lowers systolic Ca(2+), increases Ca(2+) influx through L-type channels, and decreases the efficiency of the Na(+)/Ca(2+) exchanger in extruding Ca(2+) during periodic voltage-clamp stimulation. The analysis suggests that the most important reason for these changes during metabolic inhibition is the down-regulation of the sarcoplasmic Ca(2+)-ATPase pump by reduced diastolic MgATP levels. High Ca(2+) concentrations developed near the membrane might have a greater influence on Mg(2+), ATP, and ADP concentrations than that of the lower Ca(2+) concentrations in the bulk myoplasm. The model predictions are in general agreement with experimental observations measured under normal and pathological conditions.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗

July 16, 1987 revisited: Lessons for modelers

A cross pattern was flown by the NCAR Electra in the restricted air space around San Nicolas Island (SNI). There was available a LANDSAT image coincident with the mission. The variability of cloud thickness along the flight track is discussed. The evidence points to variability in the water vapor content above the inversion as the controlling factor. This compounds the difficulty of parameterizing these clouds in General Circulation Models (GCMs). The importance of specifying correctly the upper boundary condition in cloud models is stressed. Particularly, in GCMs, calculating the humidity in the lower layers of the model is crucial for successful parameterization of marine stratocumulus clouds.

Hanson, Howard P.↗

Effects of Microstructural Parameters on Creep of Nickel-Base Superalloy Single Crystals

Microstructure-sensitive creep models have been developed for Ni-base superalloy single crystals. Creep rupture testing was conducted on fourteen single crystal alloys at two applied stress levels at each of two temperatures, 982 and 1093 C. The variation in creep lives among the different alloys could be explained with regression models containing relatively few microstructural parameters. At 982 C, gamma-gamma prime lattice mismatch, gamma prime volume fraction, and initial gamma prime size were statistically significant in explaining the creep rupture lives. At 1093 C, only lattice mismatch and gamma prime volume fraction were significant. These models could explain from 84 to 94 percent of the variation in creep lives, depending on test condition. Longer creep lives were associated with alloys having more negative lattice mismatch, lower gamma prime volume fractions, and finer gamma prime sizes. The gamma-gamma prime lattice mismatch exhibited the strongest influence of all the microstructural parameters at both temperatures. Although a majority of the alloys in this study were stable with respect to topologically close packed (TCP) phases, it appeared that up to approximately 2 vol% TCP phase did not affect the 1093 C creep lives under applied stresses that produced lives of approximately 200 to 300 h. In contrast, TCP phase contents of approximately 2 vol% were detrimental at lower applied stresses where creep lives were longer. A regression model was also developed for the as-heat treated initial gamma prime size; this model showed that gamma prime solvus temperature, gamma-gamma prime lattice mismatch, and bulk Re content were all statistically significant.

MacKay, Rebecca A.↗