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NASA NTRS2006

Case Study: Test Results of a Tool and Method for In-Flight, Adaptive Control System Verification on a NASA F-15 Flight Research Aircraft

Adaptive control technologies that incorporate learning algorithms have been proposed to enable autonomous flight control and to maintain vehicle performance in the face of unknown, changing, or poorly defined operating environments [1-2]. At the present time, however, it is unknown how adaptive algorithms can be routinely verified, validated, and certified for use in safety-critical applications. Rigorous methods for adaptive software verification end validation must be developed to ensure that. the control software functions as required and is highly safe and reliable. A large gap appears to exist between the point at which control system designers feel the verification process is complete, and when FAA certification officials agree it is complete. Certification of adaptive flight control software verification is complicated by the use of learning algorithms (e.g., neural networks) and degrees of system non-determinism. Of course, analytical efforts must be made in the verification process to place guarantees on learning algorithm stability, rate of convergence, and convergence accuracy. However, to satisfy FAA certification requirements, it must be demonstrated that the adaptive flight control system is also able to fail and still allow the aircraft to be flown safely or to land, while at the same time providing a means of crew notification of the (impending) failure. It was for this purpose that the NASA Ames Confidence Tool was developed [3]. This paper presents the Confidence Tool as a means of providing in-flight software assurance monitoring of an adaptive flight control system. The paper will present the data obtained from flight testing the tool on a specially modified F-15 aircraft designed to simulate loss of flight control faces.

Jacklin, Stephen A.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Application of the Bootstrap Statistical Method in Deriving Vibroacoustic Specifications

This paper discusses the Bootstrap Method for specification of vibroacoustic test specifications. Vibroacoustic test specifications are necessary to properly accept or qualify a spacecraft and its components for the expected acoustic, random vibration and shock environments seen on an expendable launch vehicle. Traditionally, NASA and the U.S. Air Force have employed methods of Normal Tolerance Limits to derive these test levels based upon the amount of data available, and the probability and confidence levels desired. The Normal Tolerance Limit method contains inherent assumptions about the distribution of the data. The Bootstrap is a distribution-free statistical subsampling method which uses the measured data themselves to establish estimates of statistical measures of random sources. This is achieved through the computation of large numbers of Bootstrap replicates of a data measure of interest and the use of these replicates to derive test levels consistent with the probability and confidence desired. The comparison of the results of these two methods is illustrated via an example utilizing actual spacecraft vibroacoustic data.

Hughes, William O.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Space Radiation Cancer Risks

Space radiation presents major challenges to astronauts on the International Space Station and for future missions to the Earth s moon or Mars. Methods used to project risks on Earth need to be modified because of the large uncertainties in projecting cancer risks from space radiation, and thus impact safety factors. We describe NASA s unique approach to radiation safety that applies uncertainty based criteria within the occupational health program for astronauts: The two terrestrial criteria of a point estimate of maximum acceptable level of risk and application of the principle of As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) are supplemented by a third requirement that protects against risk projection uncertainties using the upper 95% confidence level (CL) in the radiation cancer projection model. NASA s acceptable level of risk for ISS and their new lunar program have been set at the point-estimate of a 3-percent risk of exposure induced death (REID). Tissue-averaged organ dose-equivalents are combined with age at exposure and gender-dependent risk coefficients to project the cumulative occupational radiation risks incurred by astronauts. The 95% CL criteria in practice is a stronger criterion than ALARA, but not an absolute cut-off as is applied to a point projection of a 3% REID. We describe the most recent astronaut dose limits, and present a historical review of astronaut organ doses estimates from the Mercury through the current ISS program, and future projections for lunar and Mars missions. NASA s 95% CL criteria is linked to a vibrant ground based radiobiology program investigating the radiobiology of high-energy protons and heavy ions. The near-term goal of research is new knowledge leading to the reduction of uncertainties in projection models. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. The current model for projecting space radiation cancer risk relies on the three assumptions of linearity, additivity, and scaling along with the use of population averages. We describe uncertainty estimates for this model, and new experimental data that sheds light on the accuracy of the underlying assumptions. These methods make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, i.e., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including lunar station, deep space outpost, and a Mars mission. Factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties and application of this approach to assess candidate mitigation approaches are described.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Applicability of a Conservative Margin Approach for Assessing NDE Flaw Detectability

Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) procedures are required to detect flaws in structures with a high percentage detectability and high confidence. Conventional Probability of Detection (POD) methods are statistical in nature and require detection data from a relatively large number of flaw specimens. In many circumstances, due to the high cost and long lead time, it is impractical to build the large set of flaw specimens that is required by the conventional POD methodology. Therefore, in such situations it is desirable to have a flaw detectability estimation approach that allows for a reduced number of flaw specimens but provides a high degree of confidence in establishing the flaw detectability size. This paper presents an alternative approach called the conservative margin approach (CMA). To investigate the applicability of the CMA approach, flaw detectability sizes determined by the CMA and POD approaches have been compared on actual datasets. The results of these comparisons are presented and the applicability of the CMA approach is discussed.

Koshti, ajay M.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Precision Fe K-Alpha and Fe K-Beta Line Spectroscopy of the Seyfert 1.9 Galaxy NGC 2992 with Suzaku

We present detailed time-averaged X-ray spectroscopy in the 0.5-10 keV band of the Seyfert 1.9 galaxy NGC 2992 with the Suzaku X-ray Imaging Spectrometers (XIS). The source had a factor approximately 3 higher 2-10 keV flux (approximately 1.2 x l0(exp -11) erg per square cm per s) than the historical minimum and a factor approximately 7 less than the historical maximum. The XIS spectrum of NGC 2992 can be described by several components. There is a primary continuum, modeled as a power-law with a photon index of Gamma = 1.57(sup +0.06) (sup -0.03) that is obscured by a Compton-thin absorber with a column density of 8.01(sup +0.6) (sup -0.5)x l0 (exp 21) per square cm. . There is another, weaker, unabsorbed power-law component (modeled with the same slope as the primary), that is likely to be due to the primary continuum being electron-scattered into our line-of-sight by a region extended on a scale of hundreds of parsecs. We measure the Thomson depth of the scattering zone to be Tau = 0.072 +/- 0.021. An optically-thin thermal continuum emission component, which probably originates in the same extended region, is included in the model and yields a temperature and luminosity of KT = 0.656(sup +0.088) (sup -0.0.61) keV and approximately 1.2 +/- 0.4 x l0 (exp 40) erg per s respectively. We detect an Fe K emission complex which we model with broad and narrow lines and we show that the intensities of the two components are decoupled at a confidence level > 3 sigma. The broad Fe K alpha line has an equivalent width of 118(sup +32) (sup -61) eV and could originate in an accretion disk (with inclination angle greater than approximately 30 deg) around the putative central black hole. The narrow Fe K alpha line has an equivalent width of 1632(sup +47) (sup -26) eV and is unresolved (FWHM < 4630 km per s) and likely originates in distant matter. The absolute flux in the narrow line implies that the column density out of the line-of-sight could be much higher than measured in the line-of-sight, and that the mean (historically-averaged) continuum luminosity responsible for forming the line could be a factor of several higher than that measured from the data. We also detect the Fe K Beta line (corresponding to the narrow Fe K alpha line) with a high signal-to-noise ratio and describe a new robust method to constrain the ionization state of Fe responsible for the Fe K alpha and Fe K Beta lines that does not require any knowledge of possible gravitational and Doppler energy shifts affecting the line energies. For the distant line-emitting matter (e. g. the putative obscuring torus) we deduce that the predominant ionization state is lower than Fe VIII (at 99% confidence), conservatively taking into account residual calibration uncertainties in the XIS energy scale and theoretical and experimental uncertainties in the Fe K fluorescent line energies. From the limits on a possible Compton-reflection continuum it is likely that the narrow Fe K alpha and Fe K Beta lines originate in a Compton-thin structure.

Yaqoob, Tahir↗
NASA NTRS2007

Stress Rupture Life Reliability Measures for Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPVs) are often used for storing pressurant gases onboard spacecraft. Kevlar (DuPont), glass, carbon and other more recent fibers have all been used as overwraps. Due to the fact that overwraps are subjected to sustained loads for an extended period during a mission, stress rupture failure is a major concern. It is therefore important to ascertain the reliability of these vessels by analysis, since the testing of each flight design cannot be completed on a practical time scale. The present paper examines specifically a Weibull statistics based stress rupture model and considers the various uncertainties associated with the model parameters. The paper also examines several reliability estimate measures that would be of use for the purpose of recertification and for qualifying flight worthiness of these vessels. Specifically, deterministic values for a point estimate, mean estimate and 90/95 percent confidence estimates of the reliability are all examined for a typical flight quality vessel under constant stress. The mean and the 90/95 percent confidence estimates are computed using Monte-Carlo simulation techniques by assuming distribution statistics of model parameters based also on simulation and on the available data, especially the sample sizes represented in the data. The data for the stress rupture model are obtained from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories (LLNL) stress rupture testing program, carried out for the past 35 years. Deterministic as well as probabilistic sensitivities are examined.

Murthy, Pappu L. N.↗
NASA NTRS2007

A New Formulation of Equivalent Effective Stratospheric Chlorine (EESC)

Equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) is a convenient parameter to quantify the effects of halogens (chlorine and bromine) on ozone depletion in the stratosphere. We show and discuss a new formulation of EESC that now includes the effects of age-of-air dependent fractional release values and an age-of-air spectrum. This new formulation provides quantitative estimates of EESC that can be directly related to inorganic chlorine and bromine throughout the stratosphere. Using this EESC formulation, we estimate that human-produced ozone depleting substances will recover to 1980 levels in 2041 in the midlatitudes, and 2067 over Antarctica. These recovery dates are based upon the assumption that the international agreements for regulating ozone-depleting substances are adhered to. In addition to recovery dates, we also estimate the uncertainties in the estimated time of recovery. The midlatitude recovery of 2041 has a 95% confidence uncertainty from 2028 to 2049, while the 2067 Antarctic recovery has a 95% confidence uncertainty from 2056 to 2078. The principal uncertainties are from the estimated mean age-of-air, and the assumption that the mean age-of-air and fractional release values are time independent. Using other model estimates of age decrease due to climate change, we estimate that midlatitude recovery may be accelerated from 2041 to 2031.

Newman, P. A.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Reinforced Carbon-Carbon Subcomponent Flat Plate Impact Testing for Space Shuttle Orbiter Return to Flight

Following the tragedy of the Space Shuttle Columbia on February 1, 2003, a major effort commenced to develop a better understanding of debris impacts and their effect on the Space Shuttle subsystems. An initiative to develop and validate physics-based computer models to predict damage from such impacts was a fundamental component of this effort. To develop the models it was necessary to physically characterize Reinforced Carbon-Carbon (RCC) and various debris materials which could potentially shed on ascent and impact the Orbiter RCC leading edges. The validated models enabled the launch system community to use the impact analysis software LS DYNA to predict damage by potential and actual impact events on the Orbiter leading edge and nose cap thermal protection systems. Validation of the material models was done through a three-level approach: fundamental tests to obtain independent static and dynamic material model properties of materials of interest, sub-component impact tests to provide highly controlled impact test data for the correlation and validation of the models, and full-scale impact tests to establish the final level of confidence for the analysis methodology. This paper discusses the second level subcomponent test program in detail and its application to the LS DYNA model validation process. The level two testing consisted of over one hundred impact tests in the NASA Glenn Research Center Ballistic Impact Lab on 6 by 6 in. and 6 by 12 in. flat plates of RCC and evaluated three types of debris projectiles: BX 265 External Tank foam, ice, and PDL 1034 External Tank foam. These impact tests helped determine the level of damage generated in the RCC flat plates by each projectile. The information obtained from this testing validated the LS DYNA damage prediction models and provided a certain level of confidence to begin performing analysis for full-size RCC test articles for returning NASA to flight with STS 114 and beyond.

Melis, Matthew E.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Science Goals in Radiation Protection for Exploration

Space radiation presents major challenges to future missions to the Earth s moon or Mars. Health risks of concern include cancer, degenerative and performance risks to the central nervous system, heart and lens, and the acute radiation syndromes. The galactic cosmic rays (GCR) contain high energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, which have been shown to cause qualitatively distinct biological damage compared to terresterial radiation, such as X-rays or gamma-rays, causing risk estimates to be highly uncertain. The biological effects of solar particle events (SPE) are similar to terresterial radiation except for their biological dose-rate modifiers; however the onset and size of SPEs are difficult to predict. The high energies of GCR reduce the effectiveness of shielding, while SPE s can be shielded however the current gap in radiobiological knowledge hinders optimization. Methods used to project risks on Earth must be modified because of the large uncertainties in projecting health risks from space radiation, and thus impact mission requirements and costs. We describe NASA s unique approach to radiation safety that applies probabilistic risk assessments and uncertainty based criteria within the occupational health program for astronauts and to mission design. The two terrestrial criteria of a point estimate of maximum acceptable level of risk and application of the principle of As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) are supplemented by a third requirement that protects against risk projection uncertainties using the upper 95% confidence level (CL) in radiation risk projection models. Exploration science goals in radiation protection are centered on ground-based research to achieve the necessary biological knowledge, and in the development of new technologies to improve SPE monitoring and optimize shielding. Radiobiology research is centered on a ground based program investigating the radiobiology of high-energy protons and HZE nuclei at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) located at DoE s Brookhaven National Laboratory in Upton, NY. We describe recent NSRL results that are closing the knowledge gap in HZE radiobiology and improving exploration risk estimates. Linking probabilistic risk assessment to research goals makes it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, which include the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits, and probabilistic assessments of the effectiveness of design trade spaces such as material type, mass, solar cycle, crew selection criteria, and biological countermeasures. New research in SPE alert and risk assessment, individual radiation sensitivity, and biological countermeasure development are described.

Cucinotta, Francs A.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Environmental Testing of the NEXT PM1R Ion Engine

The NEXT propulsion system is an advanced ion propulsion system presently under development that is oriented towards robotic exploration of the solar system using solar electric power. The subsystem includes an ion engine, power processing unit, feed system components, and thruster gimbal. The Prototype Model engine PM1 was subjected to qualification-level environmental testing in 2006 to demonstrate compatibility with environments representative of anticipated mission requirements. Although the testing was largely successful, several issues were identified including the fragmentation of potting cement on the discharge and neutralizer cathode heater terminations during vibration which led to abbreviated thermal testing, and generation of particulate contamination from manufacturing processes and engine materials. The engine was reworked to address most of these findings, renamed PM1R, and the environmental test sequence was repeated. Thruster functional testing was performed before and after the vibration and thermal-vacuum tests. Random vibration testing, conducted with the thruster mated to the breadboard gimbal, was executed at 10.0 Grms for 2 min in each of three axes. Thermal-vacuum testing included three thermal cycles from 120 to 215 C with hot engine re-starts. Thruster performance was nominal throughout the test program, with minor variations in a few engine operating parameters likely caused by facility effects. There were no significant changes in engine performance as characterized by engine operating parameters, ion optics performance measurements, and beam current density measurements, indicating no significant changes to the hardware as a result of the environmental testing. The NEXT PM1R engine and the breadboard gimbal were found to be well-designed against environmental requirements based on the results reported herein. The redesigned cathode heater terminations successfully survived the vibration environments. Based on the results of this test program and confidence in the engineering solutions available for the remaining findings of the first test program, specifically the particulate contamination, the hardware environmental qualification program can proceed with confidence

Snyder, John S.↗
NASA NTRS2007

NASA Langley's Approach to the Sandia's Structural Dynamics Challenge Problem

The objective of this challenge is to develop a data-based probabilistic model of uncertainty to predict the behavior of subsystems (payloads) by themselves and while coupled to a primary (target) system. Although this type of analysis is routinely performed and representative of issues faced in real-world system design and integration, there are still several key technical challenges that must be addressed when analyzing uncertain interconnected systems. For example, one key technical challenge is related to the fact that there is limited data on target configurations. Moreover, it is typical to have multiple data sets from experiments conducted at the subsystem level, but often samples sizes are not sufficient to compute high confidence statistics. In this challenge problem additional constraints are placed as ground rules for the participants. One such rule is that mathematical models of the subsystem are limited to linear approximations of the nonlinear physics of the problem at hand. Also, participants are constrained to use these models and the multiple data sets to make predictions about the target system response under completely different input conditions. Our approach involved initially the screening of several different methods. Three of the ones considered are presented herein. The first one is based on the transformation of the modal data to an orthogonal space where the mean and covariance of the data are matched by the model. The other two approaches worked solutions in physical space where the uncertain parameter set is made of masses, stiffnesses and damping coefficients; one matches confidence intervals of low order moments of the statistics via optimization while the second one uses a Kernel density estimation approach. The paper will touch on all the approaches, lessons learned, validation 1 metrics and their comparison, data quantity restriction, and assumptions/limitations of each approach. Keywords: Probabilistic modeling, model validation, uncertainty quantification, kernel density

Horta, Lucas G.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Arctic Sea Ice Variability and Trends, 1979-2006

Analysis of Arctic sea ice extents derived from satellite passive-microwave data for the 28 years, 1979-2006 yields an overall negative trend of -45,100 +/- 4,600 km2/yr (-3.7 +/- 0.4%/decade) in the yearly averages, with negative ice-extent trends also occurring for each of the four seasons and each of the 12 months. For the yearly averages the largest decreases occur in the Kara and Barents Seas and the Arctic Ocean, with linear least squares slopes of -10,600 +/- 2,800 km2/yr (-7.4 +/- 2.0%/decade) and -10,100 +/- 2,200 km2/yr (-1.5 +/- 0.3%/decade), respectively, followed by Baffin Bay/Labrador Sea, with a slope of -8,000 +/- 2,000 km2/yr) -9.0 +/- 2.3%/decade), the Greenland Sea, with a slope of -7,000 +/- 1,400 km2/yr (-9.3 +/- 1.9%/decade), and Hudson Bay, with a slope of -4,500 +/- 900 km2/yr (-5.3 +/- 1.1%/decade). These are all statistically significant decreases at a 99% confidence level. The Seas of Okhotsk and Japan also have a statistically significant ice decrease, although at a 95% confidence level, and the three remaining regions, the Bering Sea, Canadian Archipelago, and Gulf of St. Lawrence, have negative slopes that are not statistically significant. The 28-year trends in ice areas for the Northern Hemisphere total are also statistically significant and negative in each season, each month, and for the yearly averages.

Parkinson, Claire L.↗
NASA NTRS2007

A Luminosity Function of Ly(alpha)-Emitting Galaxies at Z [Approx. Equal to] 4.5(Sup 1),(Sup 2)

We present a catalog of 59 z [approx. equal to] 4:5 Ly(alpha)-emitting galaxies spectroscopically confirmed in a campaign of Keck DEIMOS follow-up observations to candidates selected in the Large Are (LALA) narrowband imaging survey.We targeted 97 candidates for spectroscopic follow-up; by accounting for the variety of conditions under which we performed spectroscopy, we estimate a selection reliability of approx.76%. Together with our previous sample of Keck LRIS confirmations, the 59 sources confirmed herein bring the total catalog to 73 spectroscopically confirmed z [approx. equal to] 4:5 Ly(alpha)- emitting galaxies in the [approx. equal to] 0.7 deg(exp 2) covered by the LALA imaging. As with the Keck LRIS sample, we find that a nonnegligible fraction of the co rest-frame equivalent widths (W(sub lambda)(sup rest)) that exceed the maximum predicted for normal stellar populations: 17%-31%(93%confidence) of the detected galaxies show (W(sub lambda)(sup rest)) 12%-27% (90% confidence) show (W(sub lambda)(sup rest)) > 240 A. We construct a luminosity function of z [approx. equal to] 4.5 Ly(alpha) emission lines for comparison to Ly(alpha) luminosity function < 6.6. We find no significant evidence for Ly(alpha) luminosity function evolution from z [approx. equal to] 3 to z [approx. equal to] 6. This result supports the conclusion that the intergalactic me largely reionized from the local universe out to z [approx. equal to] 6.5. It is somewhat at odds with the pronounced drop in the cosmic star formation rate density recently measured between z approx. 3 an z approx. 6 in continuum-selected Lyman-break galaxies, and therefore potentially sheds light on the relationship between the two populations.

cosmology↗
NASA NTRS2008

Approximation of Failure Probability Using Conditional Sampling

In analyzing systems which depend on uncertain parameters, one technique is to partition the uncertain parameter domain into a failure set and its complement, and judge the quality of the system by estimating the probability of failure. If this is done by a sampling technique such as Monte Carlo and the probability of failure is small, accurate approximation can require so many sample points that the computational expense is prohibitive. Previous work of the authors has shown how to bound the failure event by sets of such simple geometry that their probabilities can be calculated analytically. In this paper, it is shown how to make use of these failure bounding sets and conditional sampling within them to substantially reduce the computational burden of approximating failure probability. It is also shown how the use of these sampling techniques improves the confidence intervals for the failure probability estimate for a given number of sample points and how they reduce the number of sample point analyses needed to achieve a given level of confidence.

Giesy. Daniel P.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Relationship of Interplanetary Shock Micro and Macro Characteristics: A Wind Study

The non-linear least squared MHD fitting technique of Szabo 11 9941 has been recently further refined to provide realistic confidence regions for interplanetary shock normal directions and speeds. Analyzing Wind observed interplanetary shocks from 1995 to 200 1, macro characteristics such as shock strength, Theta Bn and Mach numbers can be compared to the details of shock micro or kinetic structures. The now commonly available very high time resolution (1 1 or 22 vectors/sec) Wind magnetic field data allows the precise characterization of shock kinetic structures, such as the size of the foot, ramp, overshoot and the duration of damped oscillations on either side of the shock. Detailed comparison of the shock micro and macro characteristics will be given. This enables the elucidation of shock kinetic features, relevant for particle energization processes, for observations where high time resolution data is not available. Moreover, establishing a quantitative relationship between the shock micro and macro structures will improve the confidence level of shock fitting techniques during disturbed solar wind conditions.

Szabo, Adam↗
NASA NTRS2008

Directed Design of Experiments for Validating Probability of Detection Capability of NDE Systems (DOEPOD)

The capability of an inspection system is established by applications of various methodologies to determine the probability of detection (POD). One accepted metric of an adequate inspection system is that there is 95% confidence that the POD is greater than 90% (90/95 POD). Directed design of experiments for probability of detection (DOEPOD) has been developed to provide an efficient and accurate methodology that yields observed POD and confidence bounds for both Hit- Miss or signal amplitude testing. Specifically, DOEPOD demands utilization of observance of occurrences. Directed DOEPOD does not assume prescribed POD logarithmic or similar functions with assumed adequacy over a wide range of flaw sizes and inspection system technologies, so that multi-parameter curve fitting or model optimization approaches to generate a POD curve are not required.

Generazio, Edward R.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Progressive Classification Using Support Vector Machines

An algorithm for progressive classification of data, analogous to progressive rendering of images, makes it possible to compromise between speed and accuracy. This algorithm uses support vector machines (SVMs) to classify data. An SVM is a machine learning algorithm that builds a mathematical model of the desired classification concept by identifying the critical data points, called support vectors. Coarse approximations to the concept require only a few support vectors, while precise, highly accurate models require far more support vectors. Once the model has been constructed, the SVM can be applied to new observations. The cost of classifying a new observation is proportional to the number of support vectors in the model. When computational resources are limited, an SVM of the appropriate complexity can be produced. However, if the constraints are not known when the model is constructed, or if they can change over time, a method for adaptively responding to the current resource constraints is required. This capability is particularly relevant for spacecraft (or any other real-time systems) that perform onboard data analysis. The new algorithm enables the fast, interactive application of an SVM classifier to a new set of data. The classification process achieved by this algorithm is characterized as progressive because a coarse approximation to the true classification is generated rapidly and thereafter iteratively refined. The algorithm uses two SVMs: (1) a fast, approximate one and (2) slow, highly accurate one. New data are initially classified by the fast SVM, producing a baseline approximate classification. For each classified data point, the algorithm calculates a confidence index that indicates the likelihood that it was classified correctly in the first pass. Next, the data points are sorted by their confidence indices and progressively reclassified by the slower, more accurate SVM, starting with the items most likely to be incorrectly classified. The user can halt this reclassification process at any point, thereby obtaining the best possible result for a given amount of computation time. Alternatively, the results can be displayed as they are generated, providing the user with real-time feedback about the current accuracy of classification.

Wagstaff, Kiri↗
NASA NTRS2010

Integration of In-Situ Resource Utilization Into Lunar/Mars Exploration Through Field Analogs

The NASA project to develop In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) technologies, in partnership with commercial and international collaborators, has achieved full system demonstrations of oxygen production using native regolith simulants. These demonstrations included robotic extraction of material from the terrain, sealed encapsulation of material in a pressurized reactor; chemical extraction of oxygen from the material in the form of water, and the electrolysis of water into oxygen and hydrogen for storage and reuse. These successes have provided growing confidence in the prospects of ISRU oxygen production as a credible source for critical mission consumables in preparation for and during crewed missions to the moon and other destinations. Other ISRU processes, especially relevant to early lunar exploration scenarios, have also been shown to be practical, including the extraction of subsurface volatiles, especially water, and the thermal processing of surface materials for civil engineering uses and for thermal energy storage. This paper describes these recent achievements and current NASA ISRU development and demonstration activity. The ability to extract and process resources at the site of exploration into useful products such as propellants, life support and power system consumables; and radiation and rocket exhaust plume debris shielding, known as In-Situ Resource Utilization or ISRU, has the potential to significantly reduce the launch mass, risk, and cost of robotic and human exploration of space. The incorporation of ISRU into missions can also significantly influence technology selection and system development in other areas such as power, life support, and propulsion. For example. the ability to extract or produce large amounts of oxygen and/or water in-situ could minimize the need to completely close life support air and water processing system cycles, change thermal and radiation protection of habitats, and influence propellant selection for ascent vehicles and surface propulsive hoppers. While concepts and even laboratory work on evaluating and developing ISRU techniques such as oxygen extraction from lunar regolith have been going on since before the Apollo 11 Moon landing, no ISRU system has ever flown in space, and only recently have ISRU technologies been developed at a scale and at a system level that is relevant to actual robotic and human mission applications. Because ISRU hardware and systems have never been demonstrated or utilized before on robotic or human missions, architecture and mission planners and surface system hardware developers are hesitant to rely on ISRU products and services that are critical to mission and system implementation success. To build confidence in ISRU systems for future missions and assess how ISRU systems can best influence and integrate with other surface system elements, NASA, with international partners, are performing analog field tests to understand how to take advantage of ISRU capabilities and benefits with the minimum of risk associated with introducing this game-changing approach to exploration. This paper will describe and review the results of four analog field tests (Moses Lake in 6/08, Mauna Kea in 11/08. Flagstaff in 9/09; and Mauna Kea in 1/10) that have begun the process of integrating ISRU into robotic and human exploration systems and missions, and propose future ISRU-related analog field test activities that can be performed in collaboration with international space agencies.

Sanders, Gerald B.↗