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At least 685 records · Page 38

Aerosols Delay the Emergence of Greenhouse Gas Forcing on 21st Century South Asian Monsoon Precipitation By Several Decades

Anthropogenic aerosols (AERs) affect several aspects of the climate system across the world through radiative forcing and microphysical effects. These influences are particularly strong across South Asia, where AER concentrations are highest and further projected to increase in coming decades. Using large ensemble experiments from Earth system model, we examine how AERs shape the evolution of seasonal precipitation over South Asia inlate 20th century and 21st century climate in the presence of rising greenhouse gases (GHGs) concentrations. We find that AERs strongly reduce monsoon precipitation, moderately reduce post-monsoon precipitation, and negligibly influence pre-monsoon precipitation. Consequently, AERs delay the emergence of GHG-forced increases in precipitation by ~5 decades in the monsoon season and ~1 decade in the post-monsoon season. However, GHGs are projected to outpace the influence of AERs by mid 21st century, causing a steep intensification of monsoon and post-monsoon precipitation. We further show that local AERs have the strongest influence on precipitation in the monsoon and post monsoon seasons in the near-future (2020-2049). However, the contribution from remote AERs changes is also important in shaping the monsoon precipitation changes over northwestern South Asia. Further, the influence of local AERs monsoon precipitation remains stationary throughout the 21st century, indicating the insensitivity of relationship between local AOD and precipitation to the projected warming. A better understanding of aerosol-climate interactions and associated precipitation responses in is pertinent for policymakers to address the critical aspect of regional consequences over South Asia induced by externally forced climate change.

Aerosols↗

Dynamical Modeling of Mars' Paleoclimate

This report summarizes work undertaken under a one-year grant from the NASA Mars Fundamental Research Program. The goal of the project was to initiate studies of the response of the Martian climate to changes in planetary obliquity and orbital elements. This work was undertaken with a three-dimensional numerical climate model based on the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Skyhi General Circulation Model (GCM). The Mars GCM code was adapted to simulate various obliquity and orbital parameter states. Using a version of the model with a basic water cycle (ice caps, vapor, and clouds), we examined changes in atmospheric water abundances and in the distribution of water ice sheets on the surface. This work resulted in a paper published in the Journal of Geophysical Research - Planets. In addition, the project saw the initial incorporation of a regolith water transport and storage scheme into the model. This scheme allows for interaction between water in the pores of the near subsurface (<3m) and the atmosphere. This work was not complete by the end of the one-year grant, but is now continuing within the auspices of a three-year grant of the same title awarded by the Mars Fundamental Research Program in late 2003.

Richardson, Mark I.↗

CERES FM-5 on the NPP Spacecraft: Continuing the Earth Radiation Budget Climate Data Record

The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) Flight Model-5 (FM-5) instrument will fly on the NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) spacecraft, which has a launch-readiness date in June, 2010. This mission will continue the critical Earth Radiation Budget Climate Data Record (CDR) begun by the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) instruments in the mid 1980 s and continued by the CERES instruments currently flying on the EOS Terra and Aqua spacecraft. Ground calibrations have been completed for FM-5 and the instrument has been delivered for integration to the spacecraft Rigorous pre-launch ground calibration is performed on each CERES unit to achieve an accuracy goal of 1% for SW flux and 0.5% for outgoing LW flux. Any ground to flight or in-flight changes in radiometer response is monitored using a protocol employing both onboard and vicarious calibration sources and experiments. Recent studies of FM-1 through FM-4 data have shown that the SW response of space based broadband radiometers can change dramatically due to optical contamination. With these changes having most impact on optical response to blue-to UV radiance, where tungsten lamps are largely devoid of output, such changes are hard to monitor accurately using existing on-board sources. This paper outlines the lessons learned on the existing CERES sensors from 30+ years of flight experience and presents a radiometric protocol to be implemented on the FM-5 instrument to ensure that its performance exceeds the stated calibration and stability goals.

Priestly, Kory↗

The Impact of Pixel Size on the Characterization of Deep Convective Clouds for Calibration

The NASA CERES project provides the scientific community the observed TOA SW and LW fluxes for climate monitoring and climate model validation. CERES utilizes hourly geostationary imager derived broadband fluxes, which rely on the channel radiances and associated cloud retrievals, to estimate the broadband fluxes between CERES observations. This requires stable imager visible channel calibration, which the CERES project verifies by utilizing deep convective clouds (DCC) as an invariant Earth target. GSICS, which is an international collaboration, is also evaluating the DCC invariant target calibration methodology to provide consistent calibration coefficients across geostationary imagers anchored to the Aqua-MODIS calibration reference. Tropical DCC are the brightest, coldest, most Lambertian, top of the atmosphere Earth targets. The DCC invariant target calibration methodology relies on a large ensemble of tropical DCC-identified pixel-level reflectances, which are histogrammed to find the mode reflectance of the probability density function (PDF). The imager stability is monitored by tracking the monthly DCC PDF mode reflectance over time. Radiometric scaling is accomplished by ratioing the GEO and VIIRS DCC mode reflectance values. The PDF shape and mode dependency on sensor pixel resolution, which varies among sensors, is unknown. This study will characterize the impact of pixel resolution on the DCC PDFs by aggregating Landsat 30-m pixel reflectances into various coarser pixel resolutions ranging from 100-m to 4-km, and comparing the corresponding PDF statistics. This analysis will assist in improving the uncertainty in a DCC-based intercalibration between instruments with different pixel resolutions.

Conor Haney↗

South Asian Monsoon Response to Regional Aerosol Emission Reductions: Insights From RAMIP

Anthropogenic aerosol and associated precursor gas emissions are already declining in many regions and are likely to decline significantly by 2050, with major implications for regional climate. Unlike greenhouse gases, aerosol impacts are spatially heterogeneous and can influence climate both near emission sources and through remote teleconnections. This is particularly important for the South Asian monsoon system, where both local and remote aerosol changes can significantly affect precipitation patterns. Using simulations from the Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project, we examine how local and remote aerosol emission reductions influence South Asian climate across both pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons, including weakening of the elevated heat pump (EHP) mechanism during pre-monsoon months. Our analysis employs 10-member ensembles from 10 CMIP6-era models to compare three experiments with global, South Asian, and East Asian aerosol reductions relative to a high-emission baseline (SSP3-7.0). This experimental design allows us to isolate and quantify the distinct impacts of regional emission changes. Results reveal that global aerosol reductions produce a larger all-India precipitation increase (+0.28 mm day −1 ) than South Asian reductions alone (+0.19 mm day −1 ), with the strongest regional responses over the northern Bay of Bengal, the Western Ghats and Indo-Gangetic Plains. East Asian reductions show uncertain but modest precipitation reductions of 0.2-0.6 mm day −1 over parts of west-central and eastern Indian regions. Pre-monsoon carbonaceous aerosol reductions systematically weaken the EHP, cooling the mid-troposphere over the Himalayan foothills by up to 0.4 K and producing localised anomalous descent that opposes the climatological pre-monsoon ascent. Substantial inter-model diversity exists in the spatial patterns and magnitudes of these responses, highlighting key uncertainties in aerosol–monsoon interactions. The South Asian precipitation response is driven by enhanced land–sea thermal contrast, while the pre-monsoon EHP weakening is attributable exclusively to local South Asian carbonaceous aerosol forcing rather than remote teleconnections. These findings have direct implications for air quality and climate adaptation planning across South Asia as regional aerosol emissions diverge under different development pathways.

cmip6↗

East Asian Studies of Tropospheric Aerosols and their Impact on Regional Climate (EAST -AIRC): An overview

As the most populated region of the world, Asia is a major source of aerosols with potential large impact over vast downstream areas, Papers published in this special section describe the variety of aerosols observed in China and their effects and interactions with the regional climate as part of the East Asian Study of Tropospheric Aerosols and their Impact on Regional Climate (EAST-AIRC), The majority of the papers are based on analyses of observations made under three field projects, namely, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) Mobile Facility mission in China (AMF-China), the East Asian Study of Tropospheric Aerosols: An International Regional Experiment (EAST-AIRE), and the Atmospheric Aerosols of China and their Climate Effects (AACCE), The former two are U,S,-China collaborative projects, and the latter is a part of the China's National Basic Research program (or often referred to as "973 project"), Routine meteorological data of China are also employed in some studies, The wealth of general and speCIalized measurements lead to extensive and close-up investigations of the optical, physical, and chemical properties of anthropogenic, natural, and mixed aerosols; their sources, formation, and transport mechanisms; horizontal, vertical, and temporal variations; direct and indirect effects; and interactions with the East Asian monsoon system, Particular efforts are made to advance our understanding of the mixing and interaction between dust and anthropogenic pollutants during transport. Several modeling studies were carried out to simulate aerosol impact on radiation budget, temperature, precipitation, wind and atmospheric circulation, fog, etc, In addition, impacts of the Asian monsoon system on aerosol loading are also simulated.

Zhangqing, Li↗

Means, Variability and Trends of Precipitation in the Global Climate as Determined by the 25-year GEWEWGPCP Data Set

The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) 25-year precipitation data set is used as a basis to evaluate the mean state, variability and trends (or inter-decadal changes) of global and regional scales of precipitation. The uncertainties of these characteristics of the data set are evaluated by examination of other, parallel data sets and examination of shorter periods with higher quality data (e.g., TRMM). The global and regional means are assessed for uncertainty by comparing with other satellite and gauge data sets, both globally and regionally. The GPCP global mean of 2.6 mdday is divided into values of ocean and land and major latitude bands (Tropics, mid-latitudes, etc.). Seasonal variations globally and by region are shown and uncertainties estimated. The variability of precipitation year-to-year is shown to be related to ENS0 variations and volcanoes and is evaluated in relation to the overall lack of a significant global trend. The GPCP data set necessarily has a heterogeneous time series of input data sources, so part of the assessment described above is to test the initial results for potential influence by major data boundaries in the record.

Adler, R. F.↗

Lapse-Rate Feeback: The Key to Reconciling TOA and Surface Attributions of Surface Warming

The impact of climate feedbacks on surface warming is conventionally evaluated using a decomposition of the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) energy budget. Alternatively, the climate feedback analysis can also be carried out using the surface energy budget. However, the two perspectives do not provide the same interpretation of process contributions to surface warming, particularly when executing a spatial analysis. The TOA energy budget is equal to the sum of the surface and atmospheric energy budgets. Using the CMIP5 RCP 8.5 model projections, we show that the major discrepancies between the surface and TOA climate feedback attributions of surface warming are due to non-negligible changes in the atmospheric energy budget that differ from their counterparts at the surface. Individual radiative and non-radiative processes cause vertically non-uniform energy flux perturbations, in response to an external forcing, that naturally lead to a vertically non-uniform temperature change. The TOA lapse-rate feedback is the manifestation of these multiple processes that produce a vertically non-uniform warming response such that it accounts for the asymmetry between the changes in the atmospheric and surface energy budgets. Using the climate feedback-response analysis method, we can decompose the lapse-rate feedback into contributions by individual processes. The negative lapse-rate feedback in the tropics is due to greater moist convection and condensational heating along with ocean heat storage. On the other hand, the positive lapse-rate feedback in polar regions is primarily due to the surface albedo and water vapor feedbacks. Combining the process contributions that are hidden within the lapse-rate feedback with their respective direct impacts on the TOA energy budget allows for a very consistent picture of process contributions to surface warming and its inter-model spread as that given by the surface energy budget approach. With the modified approach, both perspectives indicate water vapor feedback is the largest contributor in the tropics, while surface albedo feedback is the greatest contributor in polar regions. Dynamics and ocean heat storage are the main suppressors of surface warming, except over Antarctica. Both perspectives show there is large inter-model uncertainty in the contributions of water vapor, clouds, albedo, and dynamics plus ocean heat storage.

Sergio A Sejas↗

Connections Between the TTL and Sea Surface Temperatures: Interannual Variability and Trends

Comprehensive chemistry climate models and satellite data are used to investigate the forcing of variability in the tropical lower stratosphere and upper troposphere. As this region is the origination region for air parcels which enter the stratosphere, it is important to understand variability in this region on timescales ranging from the seasonal to decadal. The warming trend in the tropical upper troposphere over the past 30 years is strongest near the Indo Pacific warm pool, while the warming trend in the western and central Pacific is much weaker. In the lower stratosphere, these trends are reversed: the historical cooling trend is strongest over the Indo Pacific warm pool and is weakest in the western and central Pacific. These zonal variations are stronger than the zonal mean response in boreal winter. Targeted experiments with a chemistry climate model are used to demonstrate that sea surface temperature trends are driving the zonal asymmetry in upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric tropical temperature trends. The anomalous circulation set up by the changing SSTs has led to zonal structure in the ozone and water vapor trends near the tropopause, and subsequently to less water vapor entering the stratosphere. Projected future sea surface temperatures appear to drive a temperature and water vapor response whose zonal structure is similar to the historical response. In the lower stratosphere, the changes in water vapor and temperature due to projected future sea surface temperatures is of similar strength to, though slightly weaker than, that due directly to projected future CO2, ozone, and methane. Finally, targeted experiments with a chemistry climate model are used to demonstrate that seasonality and the location of the peak warming of sea surface temperatures dictate the response of stratospheric water vapor to El Nino. In spring, El Nino events in which sea surface temperature anomalies peak in the eastern Pacific lead to a warming at the tropopause above the warm pool region, and subsequently to more stratospheric water vapor (consistent with previous work). However, in fall and in early winter, and also during El Nino events in which the sea surface temperature anomaly is found mainly in the central Pacific, the response is qualitatively different: temperature changes in the warm pool region are nonuniform and less water vapor enters the stratosphere. The difference in water vapor in the lower stratosphere between the two variants of El Nino approaches 0.3 ppmv, while the difference between the winter and spring responses exceeds 0.5 ppmv.

Tropical Tropopause Layer↗

The GGCMI Phase 2 Experiment: Global Gridded Crop Model Simulations Under Uniform Changes in CO2, Temperature, Water, and Nitrogen Levels (Protocol Version 1.0)

Concerns about food security under climate change motivate efforts to better understand future changes in crop yields. Process-based crop models, which represent plant physiological and soil processes, are necessary tools for this purpose since they allow representing future climate and management conditions not sampled in the historical record and new locations to which cultivation may shift. However, process-based crop models differ in many critical details, and their responses to different interacting factors remain only poorly understood. The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) Phase 2 experiment, an activity of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), is designed to provide a systematic parameter sweep focused on climate change factors and their interaction with overall soil fertility, to allow both evaluating model behavior and emulating model responses in impact assessment tools. In this paper we describe the GGCMI Phase 2 experimental protocol and its simulation data archive. A total of 12 crop models simulate five crops with systematic uniform perturbations of historical climate, varying CO2, temperature, water supply, and applied nitrogen (“CTWN”) for rainfed and irrigated agriculture, and a second set of simulations represents a type of adaptation by allowing the adjustment of growing season length. We present some crop yield results to illustrate general characteristics of the simulations and potential uses of the GGCMI Phase 2 archive. For example, in cases without adaptation, modeled yields show robust decreases to warmer temperatures in almost all regions, with a nonlinear dependence that means yields in warmer baseline locations have greater temperature sensitivity. Inter-model uncertainty is qualitatively similar across all the four input dimensions but is largest in high-latitude regions where crops may be grown in the future.

GGCMI↗

Climate Impacts on Tropospheric Ozone and Hydroxyl

Climate change may influence tropospheric ozone and OH via several main pathways: (1) altering chemistry via temperature and humidity changes, (2) changing ozone and precursor sources via surface emissions, stratosphere-troposphere exchange, and light- ning, and (3) affecting trace gas sinks via the hydrological cycle and dry deposition. We report results from a set of coupled chemistry-climate model simulations designed to systematically study these effects. We compare the various effects with one another and with past and projected future changes in anthropogenic and natural emissions of ozone precursors. We find that white the overall impact of climate on ozone is probably small compared to emission changes, some significant seasonal and regional effects are apparent. The global effect on hydroxyl is quite large, however, similar in size to the effect of emission changes. Additionally, we show that many of the chemistry-climate links that are not yet adequately modeled are potentially important.

Shindell, Drew T.↗

Atmospheric, climatic and environmental research

Research conducted during the past year in the climate and atmospheric modeling programs was focused on the development of appropriate atmospheric and upper ocean models, and preliminary applications of these models. Prinicpal models are a one-dimensional radiative-convection model, a three-dimensional global climate model, and an upper ocean model. Principal application is the study of the impact of CO2, aerosols and the solar constant on climate. Also the performance of the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project cloud detection algorithm was evaluated, concentrating initially on its application to geosynchronous data, with an eventual switch of the developed methodologies to data from polar orbiting satellites. In the process, a number of improvements were made, in particular: an improved technique for tracking small scale day to day variability in clear sky continental temperatures; a number of techniques for the statistical assessment of cloud detection uncertainties due to cloud types which are spatially and temporally invariant; and a method used to detect those cloudy regions which have long term spatial and temporal stability.

Broecker, W. S.↗

WCRP surface radiation budget shortwave data product description, version 1.1

Shortwave radiative fluxes which reach the Earth's surface are key elements that influence both atmospheric and oceanic circulation. The World Climate Research Program has established the Surface Radiation Budget climatology project with the ultimate goal of determining the various components of the surface radiation budget from satellite data on a global scale. This report describes the first global product that is being produced and archived as part of that effort. The interested user can obtain the monthly global data sets free of charge using e-mail procedures.

Whitlock, C. H.↗

First WCRP long-term satellite estimates of surface solar flux for the globe and selected regions

Shortwave radiative fluxes which reach the Earth's surface are key elements that influence both atmospheric and oceanic circulation as well as crop growth. The World Climate Research Program has established the Surface Radiation Budget Climatology Project with the ultimate goal of determining the various components of the surface radiation budget from satellite data on a global scale. This report describes the first global product that is being produced and archived as part of that effort. Product content and accuracy are reviewed, and example data from several regions are presented.

Dipasquale, R. C.↗

A Constellation of Microsatellites Promises to Help in a Range of Geoscience Research

An octet of microsatellites to be launched in 2003 promises to deliver a large amount of useful data for meteorological, climatic, ionospheric, and geodetic research as well as for operational weather forecasting and space weather monitoring. Known as the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC), the joint Taiwan-U.S. scientific satellite project makes use of Global Positioning System (GPS) occultation and tracking signals. COSMIC's final operational configuration is depicted in Figure 1. Each of the eight microsatellites in low-Earth-orbit (LEO, shown relative to the high-altitude GPS satellite orbits) will carry in particular an advanced limb-sounding GPS receiver, a Tiny Ionospheric Photometer, and a triband beacon transmitter.

Kuo, Y. H.↗

The Ceres S'Cool Project: Operational but not Routine

The first Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument has been returning useful data on Earth's radiation budget from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) spacecraft since late 1997. Validation of the initial data is now intensively underway. As one component of this validation, the CERES Students' Cloud Observations On-Line (S'COOL) project has been operational since April 1998 - the 2nd CERES validation month. S'COOL involves school children in over 140 schools in 15 countries on 5 continents in making and reporting observations and measurements which they and CERES scientists can then compare to the satellite retrievals. The project is planned to continue through the life of the CERES Project (nominally 15 years), and new participants are invited to join on a continuous basis. This paper will report on the first year of the operational phase of the project, during which a number of exciting events occurred (a demonstration of the project to First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton, and visits by CERES personnel to participating schools, among others). It will further report on some of the noteworthy observations and comparisons which have been made possible by this project. We have found that schools are often located in interesting places, in terms of the clouds found there and the satellite's ability to observe these clouds. The paper will also report on the learning opportunities delivered by this project, and on new questions about the planet and its climate which arise in the students' minds as a result of their active participation.

Chambers, Lin H.↗

The Ceres S'COOL Project: Two Years After First Launch

The idea for the Students' Cloud Observations OnLine (S'COOL) project as an outreach and education element of NASA's Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) research program was conceived in late 1996 during a conversation with a middle school science teacher. S'COOL was implemented in a series of increasingly developed test phases during 1997, as the launch of the first CERES instrument approached. Even before launch, the reception of the project in schools far exceeded expectations. After several delays the first instrument, on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) spacecraft, was launched on Thanksgiving Day, 1997. Since the first launch, development and expansion of the project has continued with expectations for launch of Terra carrying two CERES instruments into a polar orbit in mid-1998. That launch is now expected in fall 1999, and will finally provide overflight of all participating schools. In two years, the project has grown from three initial test participants to over 300 schools now participating in 23 countries on five continents. Students from first grade through university level are involved (most participants are ages 10-15). S'COOL is also being used by a few education professors to teach about Internet use in the classroom. The project continues to grow through word of mouth, presentations at teacher workshops, and now increasingly through teachers who find it during web searches. Participants in the S'COOL project are part of the CERES validation team. They provide ground truth measurements at the time the CERES instrument flies over their location, to be compared with the retrieval of cloud properties by remote sensing from CERES. Quantities reported include cloud type, height, fraction and opacity; information on contrails; surface temperature, pressure and relative humidity; and ground cover (snow/ice, wet, dry; leaves on trees or not). in addition, a comment field on the report form serves as a catch-all for all kinds of interesting observations, including similes written by some classes to describe more exactly the clouds they see. Several not totally unexpected complications with the CERES instrument and processing software mean that the CERES team has not yet reached the point of computing the cloud properties, a high level product at the end of the processing stream. However, progress is being made and we anticipate that we will soon be populating the S'COOL database with a large number of satellite retrievals for comparison with the students' observations. Some satellite retrievals from the initial test phases are already available in the database, The CERES instruments are planned to operate at least through 2006, and the S'COOL Project is planned to continue at least that long, providing motivational learning to as many students as possible. This paper reports on the first several years of the S'CCOL project. It further reports on some of the noteworthy observations and comparisons made possible by this project. Schools are often located in interesting places, in terms of the clouds found there and the satellite's ability to observe these clouds. The paper also reports on the learning opportunities delivered by this project, and on new questions about the planet and its climate which arise in the students' minds as a result of their active participation.

Chambers, Lin H.↗

Origin and Variability of Upper Tropospheric Nitrogen Oxides and Ozone at Northern Mid-Latitudes

Measurements of NO(x) and ozone performed during the NOXAR project are compared with results from the coupled chemistry-climate models ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM and GISS-model. The measurements are based on flights between Europe and the East coast of America and between Europe and the Far East in the latitude range 40 deg N to 65 deg N. The comparison concentrates on tropopause altitudes and reveals strong longitudinal variations of seasonal mean NO,, of 200 pptv. Either model reproduced strong variations 3 km below but not at the tropopause, indicating a strong missing NO(x) or NO(y) sink over remote areas, e.g. NO(x) to HNO3 conversion by OH from additional OH sources or HNO3 wash-out. Vertical profiles show maximum NO(x) values 2-3 km below the tropopause with a strong seasonal cycle. ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM reproduces a maximum, although located at the tropopause with a less pronounced seasonal cycle, whereas the GISS model reproduces the seasonal cycle but not the profile's shape due to its coarser vertical resolution. A comparison of NO(x) frequency distributions reveals that both models are capable of reproducing the observed variability, except that ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM shows no very high NO(x) mixing ratios. Ozone mean values, vertical profiles and frequency distributions are much better reproduced in either model, indicating that the NO(x) frequency distribution, namely the most frequent NO(x) mixing ratio, is more important for the tropospheric photochemical ozone production than its mean value. Both models show that among all sources, NO(x) from lightning contributes most to the seasonal cycle of NO(x) at tropopause altitudes. The impact of lightning in the upper troposphere on NO(x) does not vary strongly with altitude, whereas the impact of surface emissions decreases with altitude. However, the models show significant differences in lightning induced NO(x) concentrations, especially in winter, which may be related to the different treatment of the lower stratospheric coupling between dynamics and chemistry.

Grewe, V.↗