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Modeling Principles Using the Relation Between Lagrange Multipliers and Bond Graphs

Final document is attached. Modeling dynamic systems by bond graphs has become state of the art technology since hundreds of researchers around the world have incorporated the technology in many fields of engineering and science. The legacy of its invertor Prof. Henry Paynter at MIT in 1959 is now a fundamental and practical technique to understand reality by building computer models. This paper addresses a particular aspect of this technology when modeling of mechanical systems require relaxation of constraints by means of Lagrange principles. Lagrange's equations are a useful means of describing and solving systems with kinematic constraints. Lagrange multipliers are variables used in equations to find the extremes of multivariate functions. Here we explore the relation of Lagrange multipliers to solve modeling difficulties of a space vehicle with equations with dependent derivatives. Lagrange multipliers were used in conjunction with bond graphs to simulate a system where joints of kinematic linkages produce dependent derivatives. NASA's Morpheus Project lunar lander was used as a case study. The Morpheus Project is a terrestrial test vehicle designed to fly the terminal descent trajectory of a lunar lander to advance the Autonomous Landing Hazard Avoidance Technology (ALHAT). An objective of this study is to apply the modeling approach herein to capture the dynamic movement of the lander as the propellant is sloshed and consumed. This paper expands further the analysis presented by (Granda, J J. Nguyen, L, Carlson, T, Sahragard-Monfared, G., Fornalski, E., Brocker 2016). Using an automated approach bond graph models of state space equations were generated using the Computer Aided Modeling Program (CAMPG). Integral causality models and derivative causality models were considered in order to find the simpler solution for the mathematical dependencies produced in modeling this vehicle.

Granda, Jose J.↗

Lunar astronomical observatories - Design studies

The best location in the inner solar system for the grand observatories of the 21st century may be the moon. A multidisciplinary team including university students and faculty in engineering, astronomy, physics, and geology, and engineers from industry is investigating the moon as a site for astronomical observatories and is doing conceptual and preliminary designs for these future observatories. Studies encompass lunar facilities for radio astronomy and astronomy at optical, ultraviolet, and infrared wavelengths of the electromagnetic spectrum. Although there are significant engineering challenges in design and construction on the moon, the rewards for astronomy can be great, such as detection and study of earth-like planets orbiting nearby stars, and the task for engineers promises to stimulate advances in analysis and design, materials and structures, automation and robotics, foundations, and controls. Fabricating structures in the reduced-gravity environment of the moon will be easier than in the zero-gravity environment of earth orbit, as Apollo and space-shuttle missions have revealed. Construction of observatories on the moon can be adapted from techniques developed on the earth, with the advantage that the moon's weaker gravitational pull makes it possible to build larger devices than are practical on earth.

Johnson, Stewart W.↗

An Optimization-Based Planning Tool for On-Demand Mobility Service Operations

Regions worldwide are adopting and exploring low-speed automated electric shuttle (AES) service as an on-demand shared mobility service in dense geofenced urban areas. Building on this concept, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) recently developed the Automated Mobility District (AMD) toolkit. The AMD toolkit—comprising of a travel micro-simulation model and an energy estimation model—estimates the mobility and energy impacts of a given shuttle configuration within an AMD. Early-stage AMD deployments need to find optimal operational configurations that include: (a) passenger capacity of an AES, (b) time-dependent routes, and (c) fleet size (AES units) to satisfy the demand for the region. This research extends the AMD toolkit functionality by developing an optimization-based planning module that will assist in the operations of AES units. We developed a constrained mixed-integer program accounting for passenger waiting time, battery range, and passenger capacity of AES units. For scalability, we demonstrated the Tabu search-based solution technique for a real-world network—a proposed AMD deployment in Greenville, South Carolina, USA. Compared to rule-based operations, our developed solution yields higher travel time and energy savings for the network at different demand levels. The sensitivity analyses for waiting time thresholds indicate nonlinearity in the system performance, underscoring the need to meet shared-use mobility user-level expectations. The developed optimization framework can be adapted and extended to accommodate different categories of shared-use on-demand mobility services.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

U.S. Industrial and Commercial Motor System Market Assessment Report Volume 1: Characteristics of the Installed Base

Motor systems are an integral part of our industrial and commercial facilities. They provide the motive force behind the fans, pumps, compressors, chillers, and conveyors in these facilities. Given their centrality to any facility’s operations, they are a critical energy end use to understand, particularly when developing technologies and policies to meet sustainability goals, improve productivity, and enhance resilience. In the late 1990s, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) conducted two seminal studies to better understand the installed stock and energy savings opportunities of industrial and commercial motor systems. In the industrial sector, The United States Industrial Electric Motor Systems Market Opportunities Assessment used primary data collected through onsite assessments and led to a greater understanding of the installed base of motor systems, their characteristics, and the opportunities for energy savings (U.S. Department of Energy, 2002). Notable findings included the following: Industrial motor systems consumed 679 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 1994, representing 23 percent of U.S. electricity consumption. Cost-effective energy efficiency measures could result in 62-104 billion kWh of energy savings annually. Sixty-two percent of the energy savings potential was from fan, pump, and compressor end use equipment. Nearly half of motor system electricity consumption was attributable to approximately 3,500 facilities, or 1.5 percent of U.S. manufacturing facilities. Opportunities for Energy Savings in the Residential and Commercial Sectors with High Efficiency Electric Motors provided an evaluation of the installed stock of motor driven equipment in U.S. commercial and residential buildings and opportunities for utilization of high efficiency motors and variable speed technologies (Arthur D. Little, 1999). Notable findings included the following: Commercial motor systems consumed 343 billion kWh in 1995, with refrigeration and space conditioning constituting 93 percent of the total. Cost-effective energy efficiency measures could result in 51 billion kWh of energy savings annually. Due in no small part to these seminal studies, motor system technologies and usage characteristics have changed drastically since the late 1990s. Greater awareness of cost-effective strategies for reducing motor system electricity consumption have been developed and deployed. This includes several software tools, literature, and utility and government programs promoting energy efficiency improvements in motor driven systems. Additionally, several rounds of energy efficiency standards have been enacted, resulting in improved installed motor efficiency. The cost of variable speed drives has dropped substantially, and combined with utility rebate programs, has led to their greater adoption. Further, since these results were published, the U.S. manufacturing sector has undergone a massive transformation. Due to global competition, some sectors have relocated operations overseas. Others have brought operations onshore to avail low cost and abundant natural gas. Additionally, automation and robotics have pervaded the entire sector. Consequently, these two reports likely do not represent the current state of motor driven systems in U.S. industrial and commercial facilities. As cited in recent studies, the lack of current information on motor system electricity consumption and use characteristics limits the ability to conduct analysis on energy savings potential, develop technologies to address energy and productivity gaps, and develop programs to promote energy efficiency practices and technologies for motor systems (International Energy Agency, 2007; UNIDO, 2010; McKane and Hasanbeigi, 2011; Waide and Brunner, 2011). Specifically, the lack of information affects a range of stakeholders: Governments must rely on outdated information when setting research agendas, developing policies, and designing energy efficiency programs and offerings. Utilities and energy efficiency programs cannot identify the current market needs or potential impact when designing rebate and energy efficiency programs. Electric grid planners cannot identify motor system usage characteristics when developing plans to support the resilience of the electric grid. Manufacturers of motors, motor driven equipment, and drives are hampered when developing technologies to meet the needs of their market. Motor system end users are limited in their ability to identify energy saving opportunities within their own facilities because they do not have reliable benchmark information. In response to the lack of current information and analysis on industrial and commercial motor systems, the DOE initiated an update to these two studies. Launched in 2016 and led by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), the Motor System Market Assessment (MSMA) provides an updated, more comprehensive assessment of the installed stock of motor systems in both the industrial and commercial sectors, a review of the supply chains supporting motor and drives in the U.S., and the performance improvement opportunity available from using best available technologies and maintenance and operation practices. The outcomes of the MSMA are documented in three U.S. Industrial and Commercial Motor System Market Assessment reports, with this report being the first listed: 1. Volume 1: Characteristics of the Installed Base (this report) documents the findings on the installed base of motor systems in the U.S. industrial and commercial sectors. Quantification of energy savings potential is not documented in this report but in Volume 3. 2. Volume 2: Motors and Drives Supply Chain Review reviews the state of supply chains for motors and drives installed in U.S. industrial and commercial facilities, focusing on advanced motor and drive technologies and their constituent materials. 3. Volume 3: Energy Savings Opportunity analyzes the energy performance improvement opportunity for the installed base of U.S. industrial and commercial motor systems. This report has been prepared as a reference for motor system stakeholders. It provides factual information as could be best determined by the assessment results and avoids speculating on any findings.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Best practices in software development for robust and reproducible geoscientific models based on insights from the Global Carbon Budget's dynamic vegetation models

Computational models play an increasingly vital role in scientific research by enabling the numerical simulation of complex processes. Such models are also fundamental in geosciences. For instance, they offer critical insights into the impacts of global change on the Earth system today and in the future. Beyond their value as research tools, models are also software products and should therefore adhere to certain established software engineering standards. However, scientists are rarely trained as software developers, which can lead to potential deficiencies in software quality like unreadable, inefficient, or erroneous code. The complexity of models, coupled with their integration into broader workflows, also often makes it challenging to reproduce results, evaluate processes, and build upon them. In this paper, we review the state and current practices of the development processes of the state-of-the-art land surface models used by the Global Carbon Budget. We combine the experience of modelers from the respective research groups with the expertise of software engineers from tech companies to outline key principles and tools for improving software quality in research. We explore four main areas: (1) model testing and validation, (2) scientific, technical, and user documentation, (3) version control, continuous integration, and code review, and (4) the portability and reproducibility of workflows. Our review reveals that while modeling communities are incorporating many best practices, significant room for improvement remains in areas such as automated testing, automated documentation, and reproducibility. Therefore, we here identify and promote essential software engineering practices, including numerous examples of practices from within the community that can serve as guidelines for other models and could help streamline processes across the entire community. We conclude with an open-source example implementation of these principles, demonstrating portable and reproducible data flows, a continuous integration setup, and web-based visualizations. This example may serve as a practical resource for model developers, users, and all scientists engaged in scientific programming.

Gregor, Konstantin [Technical Univ. of Munich (Ger↗

Nanorovers and Subsurface Explorers for Mars

Recent advances in microtechnology and mobile robotics have made it feasible to create extremely small automated or remote-controlled vehicles which open new application frontiers. One of these possible applications is the use of nanorovers (robotic vehicles with a mass of order one kilogram or less) in planetary exploration. NASA and Japan's Institute of Space and Astronautical Science (ISAS) are cooperating on the first mission to collect samples from the surface of an asteroid and return them to Earth for in-depth study. The ISAS MUSES-C mission will be launched on a Japanese launch vehicle in July 2002 from Japan toward a rendez-vous with the asteroid 1989ML in September 2003. A NASA-provided nanorover will conduct in-situ measurements on the surface. With a mass of about one kilogram, the rover experiment will be a direct descendant of the technology used to build the Sojourner rover. The rover will carry three science instruments: (1) a visible imaging camera, (2) a near-infrared point spectrometer, and (3) an alpha X ray spectrometer. The solar-powered rover will move around the surface of 1989ML collecting imagery data, which are complimentary to the spacecraft investigation. The imaging system will be capable of making surface texture, composition, and morphology measurements at resolutions better than one millimeter. The rover will transmit this data to the spacecraft for relay back to Earth. Due to the microgravity environment on 1989ML, the rover has been designed to right itself in case it flips over. Solar panels on four sides of the rover will ensure that enough power will always be available to the rover to activate the motors needed to turn over. Posable struts will allow the rover to position its chassis such that the camera can be pointed straight down at the surface or straight up at the sky.

Wilcox, Brian H.↗

Design of an Automated Ultrasonic Scanning System for In-Situ Composite Cure Monitoring and Defect Detection

The preliminary design and development of an automated ultrasonic scanning system for in-situ composite cure monitoring and defect detection in the high temperature environment of an oven was completed. This preliminary design is a stepping stone to deployment in the high temperature and high pressure environment of an autoclave, the primary cure method of aerospace grade thermoset composites. Cure monitoring with real-time defect detection during the process could determine when defects form and how they move. In addition, real-time defect detection during cure could assist validating physics-based process models for predicting defects at all stages of the cure cycle. A physics-based process model for predicting porosity and fiber waviness originating during cure is currently under development by the NASA Advanced Composites Project (ACP). For the design, an ultrasonic contact scanner is enclosed in an insulating box that is placed inside an oven during cure. Throughout the cure cycle, the box is nitrogen-cooled to approximately room temperature to maintain a standard operating environment for the scanner. The composite part is mounted on the outside of the box in a vacuum bag on the build/tool plate. The build plate is attached to the bottom surface of the box. The scanner inspects the composite panel through the build plate, tracking the movement of defects introduced during layup and searching for new defects that may form during cure. The focus of this paper is the evaluation and selection of the build plate material and thickness. The selection was based on the required operating temperature of the scanner, the cure temperature of the composite material, thermal conductivity models of the candidate build plates, and a series of ultrasonic attenuation tests. This analysis led to the determination that a 63.5 mm thick build plate of borosilicate glass would be utilized for the system. The borosilicate glass plate was selected as the build plate material due to the low ultrasonic attenuation it demonstrated, its ability to efficiently insulate the scanner while supporting an elevated temperature on the part side of the plate, and the availability of a 63.5 mm thick plate without the need for lamination.

Hudson, Tyler B.↗

JSC flight experiment recommendation in support of Space Station robotic operations

The man-tended configuration (MTC) of Space Station Freedom (SSF) provides a unique opportunity to move robotic systems from the laboratory into the mainstream space program. Restricted crew access due to the Shuttle's flight rate, as well as constrained on-orbit stay time, reduces the productivity of a facility dependent on astronauts to perform useful work. A natural tendency toward robotics to perform maintenance and routine tasks will be seen in efforts to increase SSF usefulness. This tendency will provide the foothold for deploying space robots. This paper outlines a flight experiment that will capitalize on the investment in robotic technology made by NASA over the past ten years. The flight experiment described herein provides the technology demonstration necessary for taking advantage of the expected opportunity at MTC. As a context to this flight experiment, a broader view of the strategy developed at the JSC is required. The JSC is building toward MTC by developing a ground-based SSF emulation funded jointly by internal funds, NASA/Code R, and NASA/Code M. The purpose of this ground-based Station is to provide a platform whereby technology originally developed at JPL, LaRC, and GSFC can be integrated into a near flight-like condition. For instance, the Automated Robotic Maintenance of Space Station (ARMSS) project integrates flat targets, surface inspection, and other JPL technologies into a Station analogy for evaluation. Also, ARMSS provides the experimental platform for the Capaciflector from GSPC to be evaluated for its usefulness in performing ORU change out or other tasks where proximity detection is required. The use and enhancement of these ground-based SSF models are planned for use through FY-93. The experimental data gathered from tests in these facilities will provide the basis for the technology content of the proposed flight experiment.

Berka, Reginald B.↗

Automation of the ICME Workflow Incorporating Material Digital Twins at Different Length Scales Within a Robust Information Management System

Recent successes in Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) have demonstrated the potential in designing ‘fit-for-purpose’ materials for a given application in a cost and time efficient manner. However, the material design process must contain a level of judicious automation in the material decision process; that is implementing some optimization algorithms to truly enable the benefits of ICME, particularly when considering materials at multiple length and time scales. Furthermore, the ability to effectively store developed material models, experimental data used for validation, and link models at multiple length and time scales must be implemented to ensure traceability across the material design process, such that the data gathered can be leveraged towards efficient material design. To enable such an optimization scheme a robust framework must exist: (1) that can capture changes made at a given length scale, (2) automatically propagate changes upstream to the highest scale, and (3) evaluate the material’s performance at the structural level. In this work, a developed framework for tracking material changes, automatically running the necessary simulations to determine the properties at the next highest scale, and saving each iteration of the design process to maintain the application’s digital thread is presented for polymer matrix composites (PMCs). The Automated Information Management Across Organizations and Scales (AIMAOS) program offers users an interactive graphical user interface (GUI) for defining constituent materials, building lamina and laminates, and applying effective laminate properties to finite element and composite optimization third party software. At each length scale, the necessary input files are automatically written, and subsequent analysis tools are called to solve for effective properties at the next scale, which are then read by the AIMAOS tool and displayed to the user. As changes are made to the material at lower length scales, information is automatically propagated upstream to higher length scales, and changes made are automatically tracked and versioned to maintain traceability during the design process. The AIMAOS tools serves as the first step in enabling optimized design of composites from the nano to the macroscale for a given application.

Brandon L Hearley↗

Rapid Process to Generate Beam Envelopes for Optical System Analysis

The task of evaluating obstructions in the optical throughput of an optical system requires the use of two disciplines, and hence, two models: optical models for the details of optical propagation, and mechanical models for determining the actual structure that exists in the optical system. Previous analysis methods for creating beam envelopes (or cones of light) for use in this obstruction analysis were found to be cumbersome to calculate and take significant time and resources to complete. A new process was developed that takes less time to complete beam envelope analysis, is more accurate and less dependent upon manual node tracking to create the beam envelopes, and eases the burden on the mechanical CAD (computer-aided design) designers to form the beam solids. This algorithm allows rapid generation of beam envelopes for optical system obstruction analysis. Ray trace information is taken from optical design software and used to generate CAD objects that represent the boundary of the beam envelopes for detailed analysis in mechanical CAD software. Matlab is used to call ray trace data from the optical model for all fields and entrance pupil points of interest. These are chosen to be the edge of each space, so that these rays produce the bounding volume for the beam. The x and y global coordinate data is collected on the surface planes of interest, typically an image of the field and entrance pupil internal of the optical system. This x and y coordinate data is then evaluated using a convex hull algorithm, which removes any internal points, which are unnecessary to produce the bounding volume of interest. At this point, tolerances can be applied to expand the size of either the field or aperture, depending on the allocations. Once this minimum set of coordinates on the pupil and field is obtained, a new set of rays is generated between the field plane and aperture plane (or vice-versa). These rays are then evaluated at planes between the aperture and field, at a desired number of steps perceived necessary to build up the bounding volume or cone shape. At each plane, the ray coordinates are again evaluated using the convex hull algorithm to reduce the data to a minimal set. When all of the coordinates of interest are obtained for every plane of the propagation, the data is formatted into an xyz file suitable for FRED optical analysis software to import and create a STEP file of the data. This results in a spiral-like structure that is easily imported by mechanical CAD users who can then use an automated algorithm to wrap a skin around it and create a solid that represents the beam.

Howard, Joseph↗

[EC5-Space Suit Assembly Team- Internship]

There were three main projects in this internship. The first pertained to the Bearing Dust Cycle Test, in particular automating the test to allow for easier administration. The second concerned modifying the communication system setup in the Z2 suit, where speakers and mics were adjusted to allow for more space in the helmet. And finally, the last project concerned the tensile strength testing of fabrics deemed as candidates for space suit materials and desired to be sent off for radiation testing. The major duties here are split up between the major projects detailed above. For the Bearing Dust Cycle Test, the first objective was to find a way to automate administration of the test, as the previous version was long and tedious to perform. In order to do this, it was necessary to introduce additional electronics and perform programming to control the automation. Once this was done, it would be necessary to update documents concerning the test setup, procedure, and potential hazards. Finally, I was tasked with running tests using the new system to confirm system performance. For the Z2 communication system modifications, it was necessary to investigate alternative speakers and microphones which may have better performance than those currently used in the suit. Further, new speaker and microphone positions needed to be identified to keep them out of the way of the suit user. Once this was done, appropriate hardware (such as speaker or microphone cases and holders) could be prototyped and fabricated. For the suit material strength testing, the first task was to gather and document various test fabrics to identify the best suit material candidates. Then, it was needed to prepare samples for testing to establish baseline measurements and specify a testing procedure. Once the data was fully collected, additional test samples would be prepared and sent off-site to undergo irradiation before being tested again to observe changes in strength performance. For the Bearing Dust Cycle Test, automation was achieved through use of a servo motor and code written in LabVIEW. With this a small electrical servo controller was constructed and added to the system. For the Z2 communication modifications speaker cases were developed and printed, and new speakers and mics were selected. This allowed us to move the speakers and mics to locations to remain out of the suit users way. For the suit material strength testing, five material candidates were identified and test samples were created. These samples underwent testing, and baseline test results were gathered, though these results are currently being investigated for accuracy. The main process efficiency developed during the course of this internship comes from automation of the Bearing Dust Cycle Test. In particular, many hours of human involvement and precise operation are replaced with a simple motor setup. Thus it is no longer required to man the test, saving valuable employee time. This internship has confirmed a few things for me, namely that I both want to work as an engineer for an aerospace firm and that in particular I want to work for the Johnson Space Center. I am also confirmed in my desire to work with electronics, though I was surprised to enjoy prototyping 3D CAD design as much as I did. Therefore, I will make an effort to build my skills in this area so that I can continue to design mechanical models. In fact, I found the process of hands-on prototyping to be perhaps the most fun aspect of my time working here. This internship has also furthered my excitement for continual education, and I will hopefully be pursuing a masters in my field in the near future.

Maicke, Andrew↗

Access from Space: A New Perspective on NASA's Space Transportation Technology Requirements and Opportunities

The need for robust and reliable access from space is clearly demonstrated by the recent loss of the Space Shuttle Columbia; as well as the NASA s goals to get the Shuttle re-flying and extend its life, build new vehicles for space access, produce successful robotic landers and s a q k ret~rr? ~llisrions, and maximize the science content of ambitious outer planets missions that contain nuclear reactors which must be safe for re-entry after possible launch aborts. The technology lynch pin of access from space is hypersonic entry systems such the thermal protection system, along with navigation, guidance and control (NG&C). But it also extends to descent and landing systems such as parachutes, airbags and their control systems. Current space access technology maturation programs such as NASA s Next Generation Launch Technology (NGLT) program or the In-Space Propulsion (ISP) program focus on maturing laboratory demonstrated technologies for potential adoption by specific mission applications. A key requirement for these programs success is a suitable queue of innovative technologies and advanced concepts to mature, including mission concepts enabled by innovative, cross cutting technology advancements. When considering space access, propulsion often dominates the capability requirements, as well as the attention and resources. From the perspective of access from space some new cross cutting technology drivers come into view, along with some new capability opportunities. These include new miniature vehicles (micro, nano, and picosats), advanced automated systems (providing autonomous on-orbit inspection or landing site selection), and transformable aeroshells (to maximize capabilities and minimize weight). This paper provides an assessment of the technology drivers needed to meet future access from space mission requirements, along with the mission capabilities that can be envisioned from innovative, cross cutting access from space technology developments.

Rasky, Daniel J.↗

Ares I-X Ground Diagnostic Prototype

Automating prelaunch diagnostics for launch vehicles offers three potential benefits. First, it potentially improves safety by detecting faults that might otherwise have been missed so that they can be corrected before launch. Second, it potentially reduces launch delays by more quickly diagnosing the cause of anomalies that occur during prelaunch processing. Reducing launch delays will be critical to the success of NASA's planned future missions that require in-orbit rendezvous. Third, it potentially reduces costs by reducing both launch delays and the number of people needed to monitor the prelaunch process. NASA is currently developing the Ares I launch vehicle to bring the Orion capsule and its crew of four astronauts to low-earth orbit on their way to the moon. Ares I-X will be the first unmanned test flight of Ares I. It is scheduled to launch on October 27, 2009. The Ares I-X Ground Diagnostic Prototype is a prototype ground diagnostic system that will provide anomaly detection, fault detection, fault isolation, and diagnostics for the Ares I-X first-stage thrust vector control (TVC) and for the associated ground hydraulics while it is in the Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB) at John F. Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and on the launch pad. It will serve as a prototype for a future operational ground diagnostic system for Ares I. The prototype combines three existing diagnostic tools. The first tool, TEAMS (Testability Engineering and Maintenance System), is a model-based tool that is commercially produced by Qualtech Systems, Inc. It uses a qualitative model of failure propagation to perform fault isolation and diagnostics. We adapted an existing TEAMS model of the TVC to use for diagnostics and developed a TEAMS model of the ground hydraulics. The second tool, Spacecraft Health Inference Engine (SHINE), is a rule-based expert system developed at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory. We developed SHINE rules for fault detection and mode identification. The prototype uses the outputs of SHINE as inputs to TEAMS. The third tool, the Inductive Monitoring System (IMS), is an anomaly detection tool developed at NASA Ames Research Center and is currently used to monitor the International Space Station Control Moment Gyroscopes. IMS automatically "learns" a model of historical nominal data in the form of a set of clusters and signals an alarm when new data fails to match this model. IMS offers the potential to detect faults that have not been modeled. The three tools have been integrated and deployed to Hangar AE at KSC where they interface with live data from the Ares I-X vehicle and from the ground hydraulics. The outputs of the tools are displayed on a console in Hangar AE, one of the locations from which the Ares I-X launch will be monitored. The full paper will describe how the prototype performed before the launch. It will include an analysis of the prototype's accuracy, including false-positive rates, false-negative rates, and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves. It will also include a description of the prototype's computational requirements, including CPU usage, main memory usage, and disk usage. If the prototype detects any faults during the prelaunch period then the paper will include a description of those faults. Similarly, if the prototype has any false alarms then the paper will describe them and will attempt to explain their causes.

Schwabacher, Mark↗

An Approach for Defining IASMS Services, Functions, and Capabilities

Assuring safety in the NAS with the inclusion of new entrants, such as Advanced Air Mobility (AAM), will require overcoming unique safety challenges that result from combining innovative technologies with novel airspace concepts for moving people and cargo using autonomous vehicles. The focus of the In-time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) is to overcome AAM’s safety assurance challenges. The IASMS Concept of Operations (ConOps) describes an interconnected set of services, functions, and capabilities (SFCs) designed to manage operational risks, identify unknown risks, and inform system designs. This paper describes an approach for defining SFCs based on technology trends in research, assessment of known and unknown risks in voluntary safety reports, and causal and contributing factors in aviation accidents and incidents. This approach would identify potential SFCs that further expand the Monitor, Assess, and Mitigate (M-A-M) functionality that represents the enabling framework of the IASMS. Safety implications that will result from integration of AAM in the transformation of the National Airspace System (NAS) were addressed in National Academies committees reports on AAM and IASMS. Development of a ConOps for IASMS was a top recommendation and can be represented as a reframing of safety assurance that builds on real-time alerting such as the Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System, and adds the more encompassing in-time temporal parameter in recognition of the different timelines for collecting and assessing safety data for risk mitigations. For example, mining for safety trends from data sources such as the Aviation Safety Information Analysis and Sharing system occurs over a longer time period. Research on AAM operations poses that SFCs can be designed to monitor the safety margin appropriate for AAM including with regards to the distance between current flight parameters and nominal ideal conditions. These in-time comparisons will become more complex as the density of operations increases at least in certain areas and can include planned and actual 4D trajectory, and in-time comparisons having implications on conflict modeling and prediction including expected and actual departure time, fix/waypoint crossing times, and arrival time. These comparisons would be integrated as part of SFCs that redefine and inform new safety margin. An increased safety margin improves management of operational risks while reducing the potential for anomalies. An increased safety margin also has implications for operator confidence in the certainty of its operations and trust in automation. Technology trends in research could be used to refine existing SFCs and define needs for additional SFCs that provide safety improvements to the design and operation of vehicles, airspace design, and operator performance requirements. NASA is developing innovative approaches to safeguard against major accidents and incidents that have occurred in the NAS and those anticipated with the inclusion of envisioned AAM operations. The innovations use operational performance data to monitor, detect, and predict flight variations exceeding safe nominal patterns, such as would be caused by navigational error, severe weather complications, or hijacking of UAS controls. These innovative approaches have high potential to prevent accidents and incidents in the new AAM era. It is anticipated that elements of the innovations will evolve into SFCs for the IASMS. Voluntary safety reports can be monitored to identify anomalies related to design or operational performance risks. Reports could be periodically monitored and assessed for specific topics. Reports might serve as weak signals or precursors indicative of emergent risk such as when combined with other safety information. The architecture could include SFCs that are based on voluntary safety reports recognizing the periodic temporal nature of data analysis. As previously mentioned, aviation accidents with their causal and contributing precursors can inform the need for SFCs in the IASMS. Accidents and incidents at San Francisco International Airport such as Asiana 214 and Air Canada 759 illustrate how combinations of different factors lead to increased risk. These types of precursors and different factors have implications on the types of SFCs that could be needed to monitor and manage different sources and types of design and operational risk. Continuing to assure the safety of AAM as designs and operations gain in complexity can be accompanied by defining SFCs that also increase in complexity. These SFCs can leverage information from findings and recommendations synthesized across on-going research, voluntary safety reports, and accident and incident reports. These SFCs can serve to refine accuracy of algorithms and resolve limitations with current practices. The IASMS architecture represents the framework for the SFCs and their critical role in safety assurance.

In-Time Aviation Safety Management System↗

HOLISMOKES IX. Neural network inference of strong-lens parameters and uncertainties from ground-based images

Modeling of strong gravitational lenses is a necessity for further applications in astrophysics and cosmology. With the large number of detections in current and upcoming surveys, such as the Rubin Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), it is pertinent to investigate automated and fast analysis techniques beyond the traditional and time-consuming Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling methods. Building upon our (simple) convolutional neural network (CNN), we present here another CNN, specifically a residual neural network (ResNet), that predicts the five mass parameters of a singular isothermal ellipsoid (SIE) profile (lens center x and y, ellipticity e x and e y , Einstein radius θ E ) and the external shear (γ ext, 1 , γ ext, 2 ) from ground-based imaging data. In contrast to our previous CNN, this ResNet further predicts the 1σ uncertainty for each parameter. To train our network, we use our improved pipeline to simulate lens images using real images of galaxies from the Hyper Suprime-Cam Survey (HSC) and from the Hubble Ultra Deep Field as lens galaxies and background sources, respectively. We find very good recoveries overall for the SIE parameters, especially for the lens center in comparison to our previous CNN, while significant differences remain in predicting the external shear. From our multiple tests, it appears that most likely the low ground-based image resolution is the limiting factor in predicting the external shear. Given the run time of milli-seconds per system, our network is perfectly suited to quickly predict the next appearing image and time delays of lensed transients. Therefore, we use the network-predicted mass model to estimate these quantities and compare to those values obtained from our simulations. Unfortunately, the achieved precision allows only a first-order estimate of time delays on real lens systems and requires further refinement through follow-up modeling. Nonetheless, our ResNet is able to predict the SIE and shear parameter values in fractions of a second on a single CPU, meaning that we are able to efficiently process the huge amount of galaxy-scale lenses expected in the near future.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The ILRS: Approaching 20 Years and Planning for the Future

The International Laser Ranging Service (ILRS) was established by the International Association of Geodesy (IAG) in 1998 to support programs in geodesy, geophysics, fundamental constants and lunar research, and to provide the International Earth Rotation Service with data products that are essential to the maintenance and improvement in the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF), the basis for metric measurements of changes in the Earth and Earth–Moon system. Other scientific products derived from laser ranging include precise geocentric positions and motions of ground stations, satellite orbits, components of Earth’s gravity field and their temporal variations, Earth Orientation Parameters, precise lunar ephemerides and information about the internal structure of the Moon. Laser ranging systems are already measuring the one-way distance to remote optical receivers in space and are performing very accurate time transfer between remote sites in the Earth and in Space. The ILRS works closely with the IAG’s Global Geodetic Observing System. The ILRS develops (1) the standards and specifications necessary for product consistency, and (2) the priorities and tracking strategies required to maximize network efficiency. The service collects, merges, analyzes, archives and distributes satellite and lunar laser ranging data to satisfy a variety of scientific, engineering, and operational needs and encourages the application of new technologies to enhance the quality, quantity, and cost effectiveness of its data products. The ILRS works with (1) new satellite missions in the design and building of retroreflector targets to maximize data quality and quantity, and (2) science programs to optimize scientific data yield. Since its inception, the ILRS has grown to include forty laser ranging stations distributed around the world. The ILRS stations track more than ninety satellites from low Earth orbit (LEO) to the geosynchronous orbit altitude as well as retroreflector arrays on the surface of the Moon. Applications have been expanded to include time transfer, asynchronous ranging for targets at extended ranges, free space quantum telecommunications, and the tracking of space debris. Laser ranging technology is moving to lower energy, higher repetition rates (kHz), single-photon-sensitive detectors, shorter pulse widths, shorter normal point intervals for faster data acquisition, and increased pass interleaving, automated to autonomous operation with remote access, and embedded software for real-time updates and decision making. An example of pass interleaving is presented for the Yarragadee station (see Fig. 4); tracking of LEO satellites is often accommodated during break in LEO and GNSS passes. New satellites arrays provide more compact targets and work continues on the development of lighter less expensive arrays for satellites and the moon. The service now provides operational ITRF products including daily/ weekly station positions and daily resolution Earth orientation products; the flow of weekly combination of satellite orbit files for LAGEOS/Etalon-1 and -2 has recently been established. New products are under testing through a pilot project on systematic error monitoring currently underway. The article will give an overview of activities underway within the service, paths forward presently envisioned, and current issues and challenges.

Laser retroreflectors↗

A method for achieving complete microbial genomes and improving bins from metagenomics data

Metagenomics facilitates the study of the genetic information from uncultured microbes and complex microbial communities. Assembling complete genomes from metagenomics data is difficult because most samples have high organismal complexity and strain diversity. Some studies have attempted to extract complete bacterial, archaeal, and viral genomes and often focus on species with circular genomes so they can help confirm completeness with circularity. However, less than 100 circularized bacterial and archaeal genomes have been assembled and published from metagenomics data despite the thousands of datasets that are available. Circularized genomes are important for (1) building a reference collection as scaffolds for future assemblies, (2) providing complete gene content of a genome, (3) confirming little or no contamination of a genome, (4) studying the genomic context and synteny of genes, and (5) linking protein coding genes to ribosomal RNA genes to aid metabolic inference in 16S rRNA gene sequencing studies. We developed a semi-automated method called Jorg to help circularize small bacterial, archaeal, and viral genomes using iterative assembly, binning, and read mapping. In addition, this method exposes potential misassemblies from k-mer based assemblies. We chose species of the Candidate Phyla Radiation (CPR) to focus our initial efforts because they have small genomes and are only known to have one ribosomal RNA operon. In addition to 34 circular CPR genomes, we present one circular Margulisbacteria genome, one circular Chloroflexi genome, and two circular megaphage genomes from 19 public and published datasets. We demonstrate findings that would likely be difficult without circularizing genomes, including that ribosomal genes are likely not operonic in the majority of CPR, and that some CPR harbor diverged forms of RNase P RNA. Code and a tutorial for this method is available at https://github.com/lmlui/Jorg and is available on the DOE Systems Biology KnowledgeBase as a beta app.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Using AI to build a hydrobiogeochemical soil model

Soil water content is a function of inputs from precipitation and outputs via evaporation, transpiration, lateral flow, and vertical percolation, and is sensitive to biogeochemical processes. As such, soils serve as an ideal integrator of atmospheric, hydrological, and biogeochemical processes affecting the water cycle. In addition, soil water retention capacity, infiltration rates, and hydraulic conductivity can buffer or exacerbate the effects of extreme precipitation events (e.g., flooding, runoff, subsurface transport, erosion, greenhouse gas emissions) and mitigate the impact of droughts and heat waves on land systems (e.g., fire, crop failure). However, integrating water cycle measurements spanning different land atmosphere compartments across scales is a fundamental barrier for numerical model predictability. A significant challenge is that each domain (soil, hydrology, biology, and atmosphere) typically collects different sets of data at different temporal and spatial frequencies/scales, and even different dimensionalities (2D vs 3D). To implement soil as an integrator of the water cycle in land models, we suggest that novel machine learning (ML) tools can be developed to effectively simulate complex landscapes across various domains and scales, extended to regions with sparse or no data. The ultimate goals are to improve predictive understanding of land-atmosphere interactions and to extend the predictability of current Earth System Models (ESMs) through better integration of hydrological and biogeochemical data. We envision a framework in which: (1) ML-aided data reconstructions enable the merger of data sources into a unified geospatial product; (2) automated detection techniques are used to improve the knowledge of complex soil processes and interactions; and (3) this knowledge is leveraged and incorporated into models through AI-based emulators to distinctly connect the land and atmospheric compartments of the water cycle in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗