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At least 685 records · Page 38

Stochastic scheduling for commercial building cooling systems: considering uncertainty in zone temperature prediction

Here, this paper presents the first attempt to address the uncertainty in zone temperature prediction with stochastic optimization. The uncertain zone temperature is a process uncertainty and has not been considered in the existing stochastic optimization for building control. To fill this gap, we proposed a novel formulation of stochastic optimization to handle process uncertainty in building control. Specifically, we first examined the accuracy of a typical linear model for predicting zone temperature. We then formulated the scheduling of the building cooling system as a stochastic optimization problem over a 24-hour look-ahead period to minimize the electricity cost of the studied building cooling system. After that, we applied the proposed stochastic load scheduling (SLS) to a direct expansion (DX) cooling system that serves a medium office building. Through simulation with a detailed building energy simulation software, EnergyPlus, we evaluated the operational cost and the thermal comfort compared with a deterministic load scheduling. The operation cost of scheduling was found to vary with the level of zone temperature prediction uncertainty. The proposed SLS can mitigate the impacts of uncertain zone temperature predictions on both operational cost and thermal comfort. The evaluation results indicate that the proposed SLS works better when the uncertainty level is more significant.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Home energy management under realistic and uncertain conditions: A comparison of heuristic, deterministic, and stochastic control methods

We report home energy management systems (HEMS) have been shown to reduce energy bills and to provide grid services including peak demand reduction and demand flexibility. However, uncertainty in residential energy systems is a significant issue and can reduce the benefits of a HEMS to the homeowner or grid operator. Sources of uncertainty include weather forecasts, predictions of energy-related occupant activities (e.g., hot water draws), and parameter estimation for the building envelope and energy-consuming equipment. This paper tackles the problem of uncertainty by developing a framework that simulates HEMS in uncertain conditions and evaluates the performance of multiple control strategies. A linear, reduced-order residential building model for model predictive control applications is derived and compared to a full-order model. Stochastic model predictive control is shown to perform better than deterministic and heuristic methods when considering realistic forecasts with uncertainty. The framework can evaluate the performance of HEMS in real-world applications, which can help de-risk HEMS deployment.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Sample environment effects on synchrotron-measured temperature profiles in an approximant of optical floating zone crystal growth

Even though the growth of crystals using optical floating zone furnaces has had an immense scientific impact, the implementation of this method remains more of an art than a science due to the difficulty of obtaining quantitative information about the sample thermal profile during crystal growth. Building on recent work demonstrating that in situ synchrotron studies can be used to map sample rod temperatures during heating, investigations were carried out to better understand how the sample environment affects the sample temperature profile. Through a combination of experimental studies and modeling efforts, it is shown that the environment in the furnace can strongly influence the sample temperature at the lamp focus, the steepness of the vertical temperature gradient, and the timescale required for sample heating and cooling - effects which can combine to produce a strong history-dependence to sample temperature profiles. It is demonstrated that the furnace effects can be effectively captured in thermal models, allowing both the steady-state and time-dependent behavior of the sample to be accurately reproduced with predictive models, and providing a launching point for improved furnace designs that can more readily deliver desired thermal profiles.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Development of a quiet supersonic wind tunnel with a cryogenic adaptive nozzle

Low-disturbance or 'quiet' wind tunnels are now considered an essential part of meaningful boundary layer transition research. Advances in Supersonic Laminar Flow Control (SLFC) technology for swept wings depends on a better understanding of the receptivity of the transition phenomena to attachment-line contamination and cross-flows. This need has provided the impetus for building the Laminar Flow Supersonic Wind Tunnel (LFSWT) at NASA-Ames, as part of the NASA High Speed Research Program (HSRP). The LFSWT was designed to provide NASA with an unequaled capability for transition research at low supersonic Mach numbers (<2.5). The following are the objectives in support of the new Fluid Mechanic Laboratory (FML) quiet supersonic wind tunnel: (I) Develop a unique injector drive system using the existing FML indraft compressor; (2) Develop an FML instrumentation capability for quiet supersonic wind tunnel evaluation and transition studies at NASA-Ames; (3) Determine the State of the Art in quiet supersonic wind tunnel design; (4) Build and commission the LFSWT; (5) Make detailed flow quality measurements in the LFSWT; (6) Perform tests of swept wing models in the LFSWT in support of the NASA HSR program; and (7) Provide documentation of research progress.

Wolf, Stephen W. D.↗

Gamma-Ray Astrophysics: New Insight Into the Universe

During the 15 years that have passed since the first edition of this book was published, there has been a major increase in our knowledge of gamma-ray astronomy. Much of this advance arises from the extensive results that have been forthcoming from the Compton Gamma-Ray Observatory. There has been the discovery of a new class of gamma-ray objects, namely high-energy gamma- ray-emitting blazars, a special class of Active Galactic Nuclei, whose basic high-energy properties now seem to be understood. A much improved picture of our galaxy now exists in the frequency range of gamma rays. The question of whether cosmic rays are galactic or metagalactic now seems settled with certainty. Significant new information exists on the gamma-ray properties of neutron star pulsars, Seyfert galaxies, and gamma-ray bursts. Substantial new insight has been obtained on solar phenomena through gamma-ray observations. Hence, this seemed to be an appropriate time to write a new edition of this book to add the important scientific implications of these many new findings. The special importance of gamma-ray astrophysics had long been recognized by many physicists and astronomers, and theorists had pursued many aspects of the subject well before the experimental results began to become available. The slower development of the experimental side was not because of a lack of incentive, but due to the substantial experimental difficulties that had to be overcome. Thus, as the gamma-ray results became available in much greater number and detail, it was possible to build upon the theoretical work that already existed and to make substantial progress in the study of many of the phenomena involved. Consequently, a much better understanding of many of the astrophysical phenomena mentioned here and others is now possible. Our principal aims in writing this book are the same as they were for the first edition: to provide a text which describes the significance of gamma-ray astrophysics and to assemble in one place a treatment of gamma rays emitted from bodies in the solar i system, from objects in our galaxy, as well as from interactions between cosmic rays and the interstellar medium, and from beyond our galaxy. Thus, this book is intended for those in astrophysics who wish to have the opportunity to learn more about the evolving field of gamma-ray astronomy and its relationship to the high-energy, evolutionary processes occurring in the universe. The last three chapters of the book provide a general discussion of the experimental aspects of the field that seemed best treated together, separately from the astrophysical aspects of gamma-ray astronomy that are discussed in the first ten chapters.

Fichtel, Carl E.↗

Stirling Engine Dynamic System Modeling

The Thermo-Mechanical systems branch at the Glenn Research Center focuses a large amount time on Stirling engines. These engines will be used on missions where solar power is inefficient, especially in deep space. I work with Tim Regan and Ed Lewandowski who are currently developing and validating a mathematical model for the Stirling engines. This model incorporates all aspects of the system including, mechanical, electrical and thermodynamic components. Modeling is done through Simplorer, a program capable of running simulations of the model. Once created and then proven to be accurate, a model is used for developing new ideas for engine design. My largest specific project involves varying key parameters in the model and quantifying the results. This can all be done relatively trouble-free with the help of Simplorer. Once the model is complete, Simplorer will do all the necessary calculations. The more complicated part of this project is determining which parameters to vary. Finding key parameters depends on the potential for a value to be independently altered in the design. For example, a change in one dimension may lead to a proportional change to the rest of the model, and no real progress is made. Also, the ability for a changed value to have a substantial impact on the outputs of the system is important. Results will be condensed into graphs and tables with the purpose of better communication and understanding of the data. With the changing of these parameters, a more optimal design can be created without having to purchase or build any models. Also, hours and hours of results can be simulated in minutes. In the long run, using mathematical models can save time and money. Along with this project, I have many other smaller assignments throughout the summer. My main goal is to assist in the processes of model development, validation and testing.

Nakis, Christopher G.↗

Influence of Nucleation Mechanisms on the Radiative Properties of Deep Convective Clouds and Subvisible Cirrus in CRYSTAL/FACE

During the past few years we have conducted work on several different topics, as reflected by our publications. As one of the Co-Project scientists for The Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers - Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL FACE) we worked to help design the mission and then conduct it in the field. Another major activity during the past two years has been to pull together various groups to formulate plans for follow on missions to CRYSTAL FACE. We organized a workshop at the University of Colorado during the summer of 2003 to assess the best locations for future missions. Working with a group of about 10 scientists from around the country we prepared a science-planning document (Tropical Composition, Cloud and Climate Coupling Experiment (TC(sup 4)) that outlined the rationale, locations, strategy to accomplish the goals, and possible payloads for a set of three tropical missions. We also prepared background materials for various NRAs being prepared at NASA Headquarters for missions in Costa Rica, Darwin and Guam. In conjunction with the group at NASA Ames we have helped build a new numerical model for deep convection and have applied that model to simulate the CRYSTAL data. Our goal in particular has been to better understand how convection distributes water vapor isotopes. CRYSTAL observations of water isotopes are very different from those suggested by previous workers who assumed the isotopes would obey Rayleigh fractionation. The water isotope study has several implications. First it is a check on the realism of the deep convection model. Second, the isotopes are a measure of the precipitation removal in the atmosphere. Hence they provide a constraint on a parameter that is difficult to otherwise measure. Finally it has been suggested that isotopes may be the key to unraveling the water transport into the stratosphere and upper troposphere. Such transport is critical both for the radiation balance and for stratospheric chemistry. Ours is the first model that is able to treat this transport. Our initial results have just been submitted to Geophys. Res. Lett (Smith et al., 2005). Essentially we are able to explain the vertical profiles of isotopes in the tropical tropopause transition layer. We are also able to account for stratospheric humidity and isotope abundances with this model. We have also been heavily involved in trying to improve our understanding of nitric acid condensation on ice. Gao et al (2004) have shown that water supersaturations above ice occur when the atmosphere is supersaturated with respect to nitric acid trihydrate. As one of the co-authors of that work, we suggested the mechanism that may explain why this is occurring. Essentially, ice does not like to grow near unit supersaturation, but does so because the water molecules can find sites on the ice surface to attach themselves to before they fly off the ice surface. This phenomena was well known in the 1960s when it was a source of debate about whether condensation and evaporation coefficients for ice would be the same. Evaporation does not require any molecular orientation, while condensation does, so it was possible that the coefficients would differ. They don't differ because the water molecules rapidly move across the surface and find places to attach. Nitric acid may be occupying these preferred sites and therefore the water molecules can't find a desirable place to attach. We anticipate that this research will be the subject of laboratory work during the coming few years. Another possibility that has been suggested is that cubic ice is forming in clouds. We have measured the vapor pressure of cubic ice, and plan to publish that result in the next few months. We have also been working on additional aspects of the condensation of nitric acid on ice. With Y. Kondo we studied the condensation of NOy on ice using the SOLVE data. Gamblin et al. have continued this work. The CRYSTAL NOy and HNO, groups have shown th their data can be fit using standard Langmuir isotherms as suggested in some, but not all, laboratory studies. We have found in the SOLVE data set that this is not the case. Moreover some laboratory studies show there are important kinetic effects that may be occurring in the atmosphere limiting the transfer of nitric acid to the ice. The SOLVE data seem consistent with these studies. We are currently re-analyzing the CRYSTAL data to look for these kinetic effects. There are a number of implications of these studies. One of the more interesting is that the nitric acid coating on ice can be used as a cloud clock to determine how long the cloud parcel has been in existence. We have also been involved with several laboratory studies. We have worked to improve the database on ice optical constants, which are critical for remote sensing. We have also studied the ways in which ice nucleates on clays. We suspect now that the standard theories used for depositional ice nucleation are completely incorrect. Further work will be needed to develop a new theory.

Toon, Owen B.↗

Computational Tools and Workflows for Quantitative Risk Assessment and Decision Support for Geologic Carbon Storage Sites: Progress and Insights from the U.S. DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership

The 2005 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on CCS raised the profile of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) as an important technology for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. CCS is now recognized as a key component of most climate change mitigation scenarios. Since publication of that report the international research, development, and deployment (RD&D) community has advanced key technical aspects, clarified regulatory requirements, explored value chain and infrastructure solutions, and developed incentive paradigms to enable and promote large-scale deployment of CCS. These efforts have included research to better characterize geologic storage resources, to improve injection performance and storage efficiency, to assess and manage subsurface environmental risks, and to advance monitoring technologies to assure system conformance. These efforts have helped to build confidence in the viability of geologic carbon storage (GCS), but stakeholder concerns about long-term risks and liability associated with GCS remain a hurdle to broad acceptance and large-scale deployment of CCS. Since 2010, the U.S. DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) – a research collaboration between five contributing national laboratories – has worked to establish and demonstrate methods and tools to quantify and manage the subsurface environmental risks associated with GCS, amidst uncertainty. This work supports the Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Carbon Transport and Storage Program’s goal of advancing safe and secure commercial-scale GCS deployment. To address the technical challenge of simulating the physical response of the GCS site to large-scale CO2 injection, NRAP has adopted an approach that relies on coupling computationally efficient reduced-order and/or data-driven proxy models of important system components (i.e., storage reservoir, sealing caprock, leakage pathways, intermediate formations, overlying groundwater aquifers, and the atmosphere) in integrated assessment framework. That integrated model of the physical system is complemented with fit-for purpose functionality to support site characterization and risk-related decisions. The recently released NRAP Phase II toolset includes the Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) for evaluation of trends in leakage risk and potential impact, tools to support monitoring design optimization (Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management – DREAM v3.0 and Passive Seismic Monitoring Tool - PSMT), and tools for state of stress evaluation (State-of-Stress Analysis Tool - SOSAT) and forecasting induced seismicity risk. The NRAP team has also released a pair of reports describing conceptual workflows to incorporate physics-based, quantitative risk assessment into many of the design, planning, operation, and closure decisions for GCS projects. An online catalogue highlights published studies where these tools and methods are demonstrated. In this presentation, the utility of these products to assess risks and address key stakeholder questions will be highlighted through examples, and related insights about the safety and security of geologic carbon storage in qualified storage sites will be discussed. The prospect of rapid, large-scale deployment of GCS technology to aggressively reduce anthropogenic CO2 emissions requires careful consideration of interference between multiple commercial-scale storage projects within a basin. Going forward, NRAP is expanding and adapting site-scale risk quantification tools and methods to enable assessment of risks and inform management decisions for basin-scale deployment. Increasingly, this work will leverage next-generation approaches for surrogate modelling, fast prediction, and advanced visualization enabled by machine learning and artificial intelligence to promote virtual learning, scenario evaluation, and augment risk-based decision making.

quantitative risk assessment, geologic carbon stor↗

Generating synthetic occupants for use in building performance simulation

Occupant behaviour simulation frameworks can employ synthetic populations to characterize occupancy and behavioural patterns in buildings based on observed demographic data at a certain geographical location. For buildings, very few synthetic occupant populations have been generated. This paper uses a Bayesian Networks (BN) structural learning approach to synthesize populations of occupants in a multi-family housing case study. Two additional cases of office occupants and senior housing residents are considered as a cross-case comparison. Furthermore, we draw upon the extended version of drivers-needs-actions-systems (DNAS) framework to guide the selection of variables and data imputation. Our results show that the BN approach is powerful in learning the structure of data sets. The synthetic data sets successfully match the joint distributions of the underlying combined data sets. Experiments on the multi-family housing particularly show better performance than the office and senior housing cases.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Conversion of hydrogen gas to water in soil: Implications to fusion contributions

With the continuing development of fusion energy, it is reasonable to be concerned about contamination from the potential release of tritiated water (HTO) plumes, as well as the oxidation of atmospheric tritiated hydrogen gas (HT) releases in nearby soils. We build on past studies by examining oxidation rates of HT to HTO at two sites representing dry and moist soil. We also examine diurnal changes to better constrain rates of microbial HT oxidation and subsequent deposition into soils. We estimate the potential effects of an HTO plume resulting from an oxidation HT. In conclusion, this methodology framework is expected to be useful in the determination of potential health and environmental impacts from HTO as a result of HT releases.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Abstraction hierarchy to define biofoundry workflows and operations for interoperable synthetic biology research and applications

Lack of standardization in biofoundries limits the scalability and efficiency of synthetic biology research. Here, we propose an abstraction hierarchy that organizes biofoundry activities into four interoperable levels: Project, Service/Capability, Workflow, and Unit Operation, effectively streamlining the Design‑Build‑Test‑Learn (DBTL) cycle. This framework enables more modular, flexible, and automated experimental workflows. It improves communication between researchers and systems, supports reproducibility, and facilitates better integration of software tools and artificial intelligence. Our approach lays the foundation for a globally interoperable biofoundry network, advancing collaborative synthetic biology and accelerating innovation in response to scientific and societal challenges.

Kim, Haseong↗

Targeted Quantification of Protein Phosphorylation and Its Contributions towards Mathematical Modeling of Signaling Pathways

Post-translational modifications (PTMs) are key regulatory mechanisms that can control protein function. Of these, phosphorylation is the most common and widely studied. Because of its importance in regulating cell signaling, precise and accurate measurements of protein phosphorylation across wide dynamic ranges are crucial to understanding how signaling pathways function. Although immunological assays are commonly used to detect phosphoproteins, their lack of sensitivity, specificity, and selectivity often make them unreliable for quantitative measurements of complex biological samples. Recent advances in Mass Spectrometry (MS)-based targeted proteomics have made it a more useful approach than immunoassays for studying the dynamics of protein phosphorylation. Selected reaction monitoring (SRM)—also known as multiple reaction monitoring (MRM)—and parallel reaction monitoring (PRM) can quantify relative and absolute abundances of protein phosphorylation in multiplexed fashions targeting specific pathways. In addition, the refinement of these tools by enrichment and fractionation strategies has improved measurement of phosphorylation of low-abundance proteins. The quantitative data generated are particularly useful for building and parameterizing mathematical models of complex phospho-signaling pathways. Potentially, these models can provide a framework for linking analytical measurements of clinical samples to better diagnosis and treatment of disease.

mathematical modeling↗

Low-Disturbance Flow Characteristics of the NASA-Ames Laminar Flow Supersonic Wind Tunnel

A unique, low-disturbance (quiet) supersonic wind tunnel has been commissioned at the NASA-Ames Fluid Mechanics Laboratory (FML) to support Supersonic Laminar Flow Control (SLFC) research. Known as the Laminar Flow Supersonic Wind Tunnel (LFSWT), this tunnel is designed to operate at potential cruise Mach numbers and unit Reynolds numbers (Re) of the High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT). The need to better understand the receptivity of the transition phenomena on swept (HSCT) wings to attachment-line contamination and cross-flows has provided the impetus for building the LFSWT. Low-disturbance or "quiet" wind tunnels are known to be an essential part of any meaningful boundary layer transition research. In particular, the receptivity of supersonic boundary layers to wind tunnel disturbances can significantly alter the transition phenomena under investigation on a test model. Consequently, considerable effort has gone into the design of the LFSWT to provide quiet flow. The paper describes efforts to quantify the low-disturbance flows in the LFSWT operating at Mach 1.6, as a precursor to transition research on wing models. The research includes: (1) Flow measurements in both the test section and settling chamber of the LFSWT, using a full range of measurement techniques; (2) Study of the state of the test section boundary layer so far by using a single hot-wire mounted above the floor centerline, with and without boundary layer trips fitted at the test section entrance; (3) The effect of flow quality of unsteady supersonic diffuser flow, joint steps and gaps, and wall vibration.

Wolf, Stephen W. D.↗

Medical/Scientific Illustration And Production Of Otological Health Awareness Materials

Over the past year, I have worked for my mentor, Beth Cooper, on a large variety of projects. Beth is the Manager of the Acoustical Testing Laboratory, which tests the acoustical emissions of payloads destined for the International Space Station. She is also responsible for educating, and developing new methods of educating, people of all occupational and educational backgrounds in hearing conservation. Beth spends much of her time developing new materials and strategies with which to train people and teach other people to train people in hearing conservation and noise emissions control. I have been helping Beth develop and market these materials by way of graphic design and scientific illustration. Last summer, I spent much of my time creating educational illustrations that visually explained particular concepts in Beth's presentations. Sometimes these illustrations were small "comics" while, at other times, they were an instructional series of illustrations. Since then, Beth and her lab have been developing and updating some materials which will be distributed free to hearing conservation and noise control professionals and others in related fields. I have helped with these projects by designing their packaging. In each instance, it was my responsibility to develop an aesthetically appealing package that would also, through its imagery, describe or summarize the contents of the product. I did this for 3 CD's (Auditory Demonstrations 11, MACSUG, and JeopEARdy) and saw them through their actual production and distribution. In addition to working with Beth, I work with the Imaging Technology Center on various imaging projects. Some of my activities include photo retouching and manipulation for videos and print. This summer, I also had the opportunity to develop a screen saver that would show of some of the photography contained on the soon-to-be-released "Highlights of the GRC Image Archives, vol. 2". I was also able to utilize my medical training to help several of ITC s videographers identify the best histological examples of cancerous cells for incorporation in one of their videos. Over the last part of this summer and then throughout the school year, I will be working with Beth to develop a "pre-packaged" lecture series about the physics of acoustics in the context of hearing conservation. These lectures will be used to teach people of all backgrounds the fundamental concepts involved in acoustical physics so they might be better aware of their own and others auditory health in and out of the work place, and, in the case of payload developers, to design and build more quiet science experiments for the ISS. Even though it may not seem as such, this project is precisely what I am learning to do as a student of the Cleveland Institute of Art's Medical Illustration Department. From my perspective, this project is about taking technical information and translating it into terms that anyone, regardless of background, can understand.

Hawes, Nicholas E.↗

A 3D Printable Alloy Designed for Extreme Environments

Multiprincipal-element alloys are an enabling class of materials owing to their impressive mechanical and oxidation-resistant properties, especially in extreme environments. Here we develop a new oxide-dispersion-strengthened NiCoCr-based alloy using a model-driven alloy design approach and laser-based additive manufacturing. This oxide-dispersion-strengthened alloy, called GRX-810, uses laser powder bed fusion to disperse nanoscale Y 2 O 3 particles throughout the microstructure without the use of resource-intensive processing steps such as mechanical or in situ alloying. We show the successful incorporation and dispersion of nanoscale oxides throughout the GRX-810 build volume via high-resolution characterization of its microstructure. The mechanical results of GRX-810 show a twofold improvement in strength, over 1,000-fold better creep performance and twofold improvement in oxidation resistance compared with the traditional polycrystalline wrought Ni-based alloys used extensively in additive manufacturing at 1,093 °C. The success of this alloy highlights how model-driven alloy designs can provide superior compositions using far fewer resources compared with the ‘trial-and-error’ methods of the past. These results showcase how future alloy development that leverages dispersion strengthening combined with additive manufacturing processing can accelerate the discovery of revolutionary materials.

Timothy M. Smith↗

Powering America’s Non-Powered Dams, One Byte at a Time

Compared with other hydropower development opportunities, powering underutilized water infrastructure provides an attractive option for expanding clean energy in the 21st century. Research conducted by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) targets hydropower development at non-powered dams (NPD) from several angles and is increasingly looking to new and improved data sources to inform decision-making. Sponsored by the DOE Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO), ORNL’s latest efforts build on a decade of work to advance understanding and data access for improved decision-making. Outcomes of the most recent research are geared toward better informing NPD stakeholders across a wide spectrum of interests. Furthermore, these outcomes are paving the way for additional federal investments to power NPDs in the U.S., including investments in innovative new technologies that incorporate ecological and social objectives while achieving cost reductions, commercialization and deployment. Here, this research centers around improving the breadth and accessibility of NPD data. These new digital information tools and associated tools can lead to a better decision-making process and support new hydropower development, helping to power America’s NPDs, one “byte” at a time.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Class imbalance in out-of-distribution datasets: Improving the robustness of the TextCNN for the classification of rare cancer types

In the last decade, the widespread adoption of electronic health record documentation has created huge opportunities for information mining. Natural language processing (NLP) techniques using machine and deep learning are becoming increasingly widespread for information extraction tasks from unstructured clinical notes. Disparities in performance when deploying machine learning models in the real world have recently received considerable attention. In the clinical NLP domain, the robustness of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for classifying cancer pathology reports under natural distribution shifts remains understudied. In this research, we aim to quantify and improve the performance of the CNN for text classification on out-of-distribution (OOD) datasets resulting from the natural evolution of clinical text in pathology reports. We identified class imbalance due to different prevalence of cancer types as one of the sources of performance drop and analyzed the impact of previous methods for addressing class imbalance when deploying models in real-world domains. Our results show that our novel class-specialized ensemble technique outperforms other methods for the classification of rare cancer types in terms of macro F1 scores. We also found that traditional ensemble methods perform better in top classes, leading to higher micro F1 scores. Based on our findings, we formulate a series of recommendations for other ML practitioners on how to build robust models with extremely imbalanced datasets in biomedical NLP applications.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Imagery Applications for Advanced Event Analytics (WBS 24.3.1.3.3-IDC FY202 Final Project Report)

Accurate event locations and replicability of location analyses are essential for assessing the nature of an event, its context, ambient site conditions, and proximity to relevant facilities and infrastructure. Additionally, accurate event locations provide valuable information that reduce uncertainties, improve confidence in event analyses, and inform in-field verification activities. However, event location/relocation and replicability are difficult due to a number of factors, including spatially-sparse network coverage in some areas of the globe and variability in seismic data processing. This team proposed that the incorporation of high-fidelity imagery as a data backbone to the analytical assessment of a suspected underground explosion and/or an advanced seismic event bulletin produced by the International Data Centre (IDC) of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO PrepCom) could reduce uncertainties and improve confidence in analyses. Specifically, temporally-separated images can reduce uncertainty by identifying areas where change has occurred (e.g., building construction or demolition, road or facilities improvements). The primary goal of this project was to develop an automated geospatial processing script for imagery change detection to better reflect needs of the technical community (including the IDC) and to make the use of such a tool accessible in a variety of settings across platforms. Technical experts at Los Alamos National Laboratory successfully built GAIA: the Geospatial Automated Imagery Analysis tool, to fill this need. GAIA combines five tool components to produce orthorectified time separated imagery and imagery change detection maps. Our toolkit (1) reduces error by providing a standardized workflow for image analyses and (2) significantly reduces processing time from between 7 and 24+ hours to approximately 5 minutes. Technical experts at Sandia National Laboratories supported GAIA via beta-testing and by introducing a web-based system approach for increased applicability. To test the function, performance, broad application, and ease-of-use of GAIA, we applied it to four separate test cases. The results of this preliminary investigation show promise in reducing uncertainty in seismic event locations: if satellite imagery can show regions where operations that produce seismic activity likely occurred, then pursuing imagery to locate epicenters of seismic nuclear events could reduce the time needed to find the true epicenter location.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗