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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

A Review of Bayesian Networks for Spatial Data

We report Bayesian networks are a popular class of multivariate probabilistic models as they allow for the translation of prior beliefs about conditional dependencies between variables to be easily encoded into their model structure. Due to their widespread usage, they are often applied to spatial data for inferring properties of the systems under study and also generating predictions for how these systems may behave in the future. We review published research on methodologies for representing spatial data with Bayesian networks and also summarize the application areas for which Bayesian networks are employed in the modeling of spatial data. We find that a wide variety of perspectives are taken, including a GIS-centric focus on efficiently generating geospatial predictions, a statistical focus on rigorously constructing graphical models controlling for spatial correlation, as well as a range of problem-specific heuristics for mitigating the effects of spatial correlation and dependency arising in spatial data analysis. Special attention is also paid to potential future directions for integration of Bayesian networks with spatial processes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

pygwb: A Python-based Library for Gravitational-wave Background Searches

The collection of gravitational waves (GWs) that are either too weak or too numerous to be individually resolved is commonly referred to as the gravitational-wave background (GWB). A confident detection and model-driven characterization of such a signal will provide invaluable information about the evolution of the universe and the population of GW sources within it. We present a new, user-friendly, Python-based package for GW data analysis to search for an isotropic GWB in ground-based interferometer data. We employ cross-correlation spectra of GW detector pairs to construct an optimal estimator of the Gaussian and isotropic GWB, and Bayesian parameter estimation to constrain GWB models. The modularity and clarity of the code allow for both a shallow learning curve and flexibility in adjusting the analysis to one’s own needs. We describe the individual modules that make up pygwb, following the traditional steps of stochastic analyses carried out within the LIGO, Virgo, and KAGRA Collaboration. We then describe the built-in pipeline that combines the different modules and validate it with both mock data and real GW data from the O3 Advanced LIGO and Virgo observing run. We successfully recover all mock data injections and reproduce published results.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Non-smooth Bayesian optimization in tuning scientific applications

Tuning algorithmic parameters to optimize the performance of large, complicated computational codes is an important problem involving finding the optima and identifying regimes defined by non-smooth boundaries in black-box functions. Within the Bayesian optimization framework, the Gaussian process surrogate model produces smooth mean functions, but functions in the tuning problem are often non-smooth, which is exacerbated by the fact that we usually have limited sequential samples from the black-box function. Here, motivated by these issues encountered in tuning, we propose a novel Gaussian process model called a clustered Gaussian process (cGP), where the components are dynamically updated by clustering. In our studies, the performance of cGP can be better than stationary GPs in nearly 90% of the experiments and better than non-stationary GPs in nearly 70% of the repeated experiments while requiring less computational cost. cGP provides a novel approach for dynamic GP, computes more efficiently than recursive partitioning, and discovers non-smoothness regimes. We provide extensive experiments including high-performance computing (HPC) and industrial simulation functions to show the effectiveness of our methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

TensorBNN: Bayesian inference for neural networks using TensorFlow

We report that TensorBNN is a new package based on TensorFlow that implements Bayesian inference for modern neural network models. The posterior density of neural network model parameters is represented as a point cloud sampled using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. The TensorBNN package leverages TensorFlow's architecture and its ability to use modern graphics processing units in both the training and prediction stages.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

An initial framework for the rapid qualification of long-term creep rupture strength via microstructural modeling

This report describes the development and testing of a new method for extrapolating short-term creep rupture test data to predict long-term rupture strength. The goal of this work is to reduce the time required to qualify new materials for nuclear service by reducing the lead time required for dedicated, long-term material testing to establish key long-term material properties. The new approach described here uses a physics-based model to predict the long-term creep rupture strength of 316H stainless steel using only short-term test data. The key idea is to use Bayesian inference to find the statistical distribution of the model parameters that best explain the short-term rupture data. Because the model is physics-based these parameters are all microstructural quantities that can be measured through detailed material characterization experiments. The Bayesian prior distributions provide a means for incorporating this characterization data into the final model to improve the accuracy of the long-term model predictions. However, where such data is not available the process still produces an accurate model based on an uniformed prior. Our hypothesis is that this approach more accurately extrapolates the short-term test data when compared to current, empirical methods. The report proves this hypothesis using actual long-term rupture data available for 316H, including tests with rupture times greater than 200,000 hours. The general approach developed here could be applied to other materials and other time-dependent material properties. Applying this new technique to develop long-term qualified material properties, potentially in conjunction with other accelerated qualification approaches like staggered qualification test programs, could greatly reduce the time required to qualify new materials for nuclear service.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

EcoBOT: an AI/ML enabled automated phenotyping capability for model plants

Introduction: Advances in automation and AI/ML offer new opportunities for plant science, including design, modeling, and analysis. This study aimed to develop an automated platform for researching small model plants under axenic conditions and integrate it with AI/ML tools. Methods: The EcoBOT platform was developed, which consists of sterile containers (EcoFABs) for growing plants and imaging for monitoring plant growth and health. Brachypodium distachyon was grown on the EcoBOT, and its response to nutrient limitation and copper stress was evaluated. Results: The results showed that Brachypodium distachyon grown in the EcoBOT maintained sterility and responded to nutrient limitation and copper stress. Analysis of over 6,500 root and shoot images revealed varying sensitivity and response rates to copper. Bayesian Optimization was used to improve model accuracies relating copper concentrations to plant biomass via sequential experiments, resulting in a >30% improvement. Discussion: The findings of this study demonstrate the potential of the EcoBOT platform for researching plant responses to environmental factors. Future experiments could focus on relating other chemical stresses and microbial interactions to create generalized models of plant responses.

AI image analysis↗
DOE OSTI2020

Bayesian inference of Stochastic reaction networks using Multifidelity Sequential Tempered Markov Chain Monte Carlo

Stochastic reaction network models are often used to explain and predict the dynamics of gene regulation in single cells.These models usually involve several parameters, such as the kinetic rates of chemical reactions, that are not directly measurable and must be inferred from experimental data. Bayesian inference provides a rigorous probabilistic frame-work for identifying these parameters by finding a posterior parameter distribution that captures their uncertainty.Traditional computational methods for solving inference problems such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods based on classical Metropolis-Hastings algorithm involve numerous serial evaluations of the likelihood function, which in turn requires expensive forward solutions of the chemical master equation (CME). We propose an alternate approach based on a multifidelity extension of the Sequential Tempered Markov Chain Monte Carlo (ST-MCMC) sampler. This algorithm is built upon Sequential Monte Carlo and solves the Bayesian inference problem by decomposing it into a sequence of efficiently solved subproblems that gradually increase both model fidelity and the influence of the observed data. We reformulate the finite state projection (FSP) algorithm, a well-known method for solving the CME, to produce a hierarchy of surrogate master equations to be used in this multifidelity scheme. To determine the appropriate fidelity, we introduce a novel information-theoretic criteria that seeks to extract the most information about the ultimate Bayesian posterior from each model in the hierarchy without inducing significant bias. This novel sampling scheme is tested with high performance computing resources using biologically relevant problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deep Bayesian local crystallography

Abstract The advent of high-resolution electron and scanning probe microscopy imaging has opened the floodgates for acquiring atomically resolved images of bulk materials, 2D materials, and surfaces. This plethora of data contains an immense volume of information on materials structures, structural distortions, and physical functionalities. Harnessing this knowledge regarding local physical phenomena necessitates the development of the mathematical frameworks for extraction of relevant information. However, the analysis of atomically resolved images is often based on the adaptation of concepts from macroscopic physics, notably translational and point group symmetries and symmetry lowering phenomena. Here, we explore the bottom-up definition of structural units and symmetry in atomically resolved data using a Bayesian framework. We demonstrate the need for a Bayesian definition of symmetry using a simple toy model and demonstrate how this definition can be extended to the experimental data using deep learning networks in a Bayesian setting, namely rotationally invariant variational autoencoders.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty quantification and optimization of precipitating hydrometeor parameters for winter precipitation in a cloud microphysics scheme

The precipitating hydrometeor parameters used in cloud microphysics schemes carry inherent uncertainties. The quantification of these uncertainties, together with parameter optimization, can significantly improve precipitation forecasts. This study investigates the effects of 13 parameters in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Double-Moment 6-class (WDM6) microphysics scheme, which define the hydrometeor characteristics such as fall velocity–diameter and mass–diameter relationships, as well as the shape parameter of the drop size distribution for precipitating particles such as rain, snow, and graupel on simulated winter precipitation. A comparison between the model's pre-defined parameters and observations from the International Collaborative Experiments for the PyeongChang 2018 Olympic and Paralympic winter games (ICE-POP 2018) field campaign reveals that the fall velocity–diameter relationship for rain, the mass–diameter relationships for snow and graupel, and the shape parameters for all precipitating particles in the WDM6 scheme deviate from the median values observed by the two-dimensional video disdrometer (2DVD). To quantify parameter sensitivities, a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) of 256 simulations was conducted within parameter ranges constrained by 2DVD observations for three winter precipitation cases. Bayesian optimization was then applied to identify parameter sets that minimized the root mean square error (RMSE) for each case, achieving reductions of up to 30.2 %. These results demonstrate that ensemble-based uncertainty quantification and parameter optimization can help identify key parameters and provide a pathway to improving precipitation simulation performance. In addition, measurement sites can be strategically selected based on regions that show high sensitivity to variations in hydrometeor characteristic parameters.

Bayesian optimization↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian-based response expansion and uncertainty quantification using sparse measurement sets

Systems subjected to dynamic loads often require monitoring of their vibrational response, but limitations on the total number and placement of the measurement sensors can hinder the data-collection process. Here, we present an indirect approach to estimate a system’s full-field dynamic response, including all uninstrumented locations, using response measurements from sensors sparsely located on the system. This approach relies on Bayesian inference that utilizes a system model to estimate the full-field response and quantify the uncertainty in these estimates. By casting the estimation problem in the frequency domain, this approach utilizes the modal frequency response functions as a natural, frequency-dependent weighting scheme for the system mode shapes to perform the expansion. This frequency-dependent weighting scheme enables an accurate expansion, even with highly correlated mode shapes that may arise from spatial aliasing due to the limited number of sensors, provided these correlated modes do not have natural frequencies that are closely spaced. Furthermore, the inherent regularization mechanism that arises in this Bayesian-based procedure enables the utilization of the full set of system mode shapes for the expansion, rather than any reduced subset. This approach can produce estimates when considering a single realization of the measured responses, and with some modification, it can also produce estimates for power spectral density matrices measured from many realizations of the responses from statistically stationary random processes. A simply supported beam provides an initial numerical validation, and a cylindrical test article excited by acoustic loads in a reverberation chamber provides experimental validation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Calibration of the Diffusivity Predictions of Centipede Using Approximate Bayesian Computation and Applications in Nyx (Engineering Scale) and Xolotl-MARMOT (Meso-Scale) Simulations

Fission gas evolution and release in UO 2 nuclear fuel are important fuel performance metrics and occur in several distinct stages: 1) nucleation, growth and resolution of intra-granular bubbles, 2) diffusion to grain boundaries and 3) nucleation and growth of bubbles at grain boundaries, which eventually form a connected network (percolation) enabling release of gas from grain boundaries through connections to triple junctions, grain edges or free surfaces. The NE-SciDAC project is developing several computational tools to model this problem, which are connected in a hierarchical multi-scale framework. The information transfer in the multi-scale framework is a critical step that, in addition to best-estimates, should include uncertainty quantification. Despite taking a first-principles multi-scale approach, there is a need to perform parameter calibration to ensure consistency with available experimental data. In the present study, uncertainty quantification (UQ) and parameter calibration is demonstrated for one of the lower length scale codes in the multi-scale framework (Centipede) and then the results, including instances of the propagated uncertainties, are used in other codes within the framework, specifically Nyx and Xolotl-MARMOT. We calibrated the model parameters in Centipede, a computer code used to predict diffusivities of uranium (U) and xenon (Xe) in the context of the simulation of fission gas in uranium oxide (UO 2 ) nuclear fuel. The Centipede code depends on 183 parameters, all of which are subject to uncertainty. The three data sets used in our calibration effort are taken from the literature. This data is available as a set of measurements, including measurement errors. Our goal is to calibrate a statistical model that predicts both the value of the measurement and the uncertainty associated with the measurement. We perform a Bayesian calibration of the model parameters using a dedicated approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) likelihood function. To avoid excessive computational costs, we replace the expensive Centipede simulation code by a higher-order surrogate model, constructed using only the 9 most important parameters. These important parameters are identified by a preliminary global sensitivity analysis (GSA) study. Among the important parameters are T0 (the temperature at which UO 2 is perfectly stoichiometric) and Hf_pO2 (the temperature dependence of the oxygen (O) partial pressure) that should be considered as operating conditions to be estimated along with the other parameters. We consider two different cases: one where we define one set of these operating conditions for all data sets, and one where we define distinct operating condition parameters for each data set. The Xe diffusivities predicted by the latter case show distinct features that could not be observed in the former. Next, we use the diffusivity predictions by Centipede as input to Nyx, a reduced order fuel performance code focused on gas behavior alone, in order to estimate quantities associated with inter-granular bubble formation at conditions specified by the experiments. Finally, the diffusivities obtained from the calibrated Centipede runs were used in coupled Xolotl-MARMOT simulations of intra- and inter-granular gas evolution. The results are compared to simulations using the baseline diffusivities from Turnbull et al.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Capabilities of multivariate Bayesian inference toward seismic hazard assessment

Multivariate Bayesian analysis can bring significant benefits to seismic hazard analysis: Its multivariate feature enables computing scalar and vector hazard without making any approximations; Correlations between intensity measures are implicitly modeled, permitting direct simulation of ground motion selection tools such as the conditional mean spectrum and the generalized conditioning intensity measure; and Its updating feature enables a seamless integration of new ground motion data into the hazard results. Here, we first develop a multivariate Bayesian ground motion model through the NGA-West2 database. The model functional form considers fault-type, magnitude, and distance dependencies, and also the linear and the rock intensity dependent site response. We use a hybrid Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling to perform Bayesian inference consisting of Gibbs step and a multilevel Metropolis-Hastings step. We then perform several checks on the model and note that its performance is satisfactory. Finally, we illustrate the merits of this multivariate Bayesian analysis, which include: ground motion model updating with ground motion data recorded in the last four years not part of the NGA-West2 database; computation of scalar and vector seismic hazard using the un-updated and updated ground motion models for Los Angeles, CA; and simulation of the conditional mean spectrum under scalar and vector IM conditioning while accounting for different sources of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

BayFlux: A Bayesian method to quantify metabolic Fluxes and their uncertainty at the genome scale

Metabolic fluxes, the number of metabolites traversing each biochemical reaction in a cell per unit time, are crucial for assessing and understanding cell function. 13 C Metabolic Flux Analysis ( 13 C MFA) is considered to be the gold standard for measuring metabolic fluxes. 13 C MFA typically works by leveraging extracellular exchange fluxes as well as data from 13 C labeling experiments to calculate the flux profile which best fit the data for a small, central carbon, metabolic model. However, the nonlinear nature of the 13 C MFA fitting procedure means that several flux profiles fit the experimental data within the experimental error, and traditional optimization methods offer only a partial or skewed picture, especially in “non-gaussian” situations where multiple very distinct flux regions fit the data equally well. Here, we present a method for flux space sampling through Bayesian inference (BayFlux), that identifies the full distribution of fluxes compatible with experimental data for a comprehensive genome-scale model. This Bayesian approach allows us to accurately quantify uncertainty in calculated fluxes. We also find that, surprisingly, the genome-scale model of metabolism produces narrower flux distributions (reduced uncertainty) than the small core metabolic models traditionally used in 13 C MFA. The different results for some reactions when using genome-scale models vs core metabolic models advise caution in assuming strong inferences from 13 C MFA since the results may depend significantly on the completeness of the model used. Based on BayFlux, we developed and evaluated novel methods (P- 13 C MOMA and P- 13 C ROOM) to predict the biological results of a gene knockout, that improve on the traditional MOMA and ROOM methods by quantifying prediction uncertainty.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Bayesian Multi-fidelity Neural Network to Predict Nonlinear Frequency Backbone Curves

The use of structural mechanics models during the design process often leads to the development of models of varying fidelity. Often low-fidelity models are efficient to simulate but lack accuracy, while the high-fidelity counterparts are accurate with less efficiency. Here, this paper presents a multi-fidelity surrogate modeling approach that combines the accuracy of a high-fidelity finite element model with the efficiency of a low-fidelity model to train an even faster surrogate model that parameterizes the design space of interest. The objective of these models is to predict the nonlinear frequency backbone curves of the Tribomechadynamics Research Challenge benchmark structure which exhibits simultaneous nonlinearities from frictional contact and geometric nonlinearity. The surrogate model consists of an ensemble of neural networks that learn the mapping between low and high-fidelity data through nonlinear transformations. Bayesian neural networks are used to assess the surrogate model's uncertainty. Once trained, the multi-fidelity neural network is used to perform sensitivity analysis to assess the influence of the design parameters on the predicted backbone curves. Additionally, Bayesian calibration is performed to update the input parameter distributions to correlate the model parameters to the collection of experimentally measured backbone curves.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dynamical Sketching for Enhanced Communication Efficiency in Federated Learning

Federated learning (FL) has revolutionized distributed machine learning by enabling collaborative model training without sharing local data. However, communication efficiency and privacy guarantees remain significant challenges. This paper introduces a dynamic sketching mechanism in FL, optimizing the trade-off between communication efficiency and model accuracy. By dynamically selecting the sketch matrix size, our approach adapts to the evolving characteristics of the data and the model, ensuring optimal performance across diverse scenarios. We leverage Bayesian optimization to systematically tune the sketch parameters, achieving an effective balance between resource efficiency and model performance. Experimental results on the MNIST dataset using a convolutional neural network (CNN) architecture validate the proposed method's efficiency and scalability. Our dynamic sketching approach significantly outperforms fixed-size sketching techniques, achieving higher compression ratios (up to 62x) and providing better privacy guarantees while maintaining high model accuracy. These findings highlight the robustness and versatility of our approach and make it a valuable solution for privacy-preserving, communication-efficient federated learning.

Afrose, Sharmin [ORNL]↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimizing training trajectories in variational autoencoders via latent Bayesian optimization approach *

Unsupervised and semi-supervised ML methods such as variational autoencoders (VAE) have become widely adopted across multiple areas of physics, chemistry, and materials sciences due to their capability in disentangling representations and ability to find latent manifolds for classification and/or regression of complex experimental data. Like other ML problems, VAEs require hyperparameter tuning, e.g. balancing the Kullback–Leibler and reconstruction terms. However, the training process and resulting manifold topology and connectivity depend not only on hyperparameters, but also their evolution during training. Because of the inefficiency of exhaustive search in a high-dimensional hyperparameter space for the expensive-to-train models, here we have explored a latent Bayesian optimization (zBO) approach for the hyperparameter trajectory optimization for the unsupervised and semi-supervised ML and demonstrated for joint-VAE with rotational invariances. We have demonstrated an application of this method for finding joint discrete and continuous rotationally invariant representations for modified national institute of standards and technology database (MNIST) and experimental data of a plasmonic nanoparticles material system. The performance of the proposed approach has been discussed extensively, where it allows for any high dimensional hyperparameter trajectory optimization of other ML models.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

A novel probabilistic regression model for electrical peak demand estimate of commercial and manufacturing buildings

Due to the high cost of electricity in commercial and industrial sectors, demand forecast models have gained increasing attention. However, there are two unresolved issues: (1) Models are not adaptable when exposed to previously unknown data (2) The value of regression methods vs. state-of-the-art machine learning models has not been made apparent before. This study’s goal is to develop probabilistic demand estimation models. Herein, we propose a probabilistic Bayesian regression framework that can not only estimate future demands with high accuracy but also be updated once new information is available. By applying the proposed algorithm to two real-world case studies (commercial and manufacturing), we show a 40.3% and 30.8% improvement in terms of mean absolute error for the two cases. Moreover, the proposed technique outperforms powerful machine learning approaches, including support vector machine by 10.39%, random forest by 6.17%, and multilayer perceptron by 9.14% in terms of mean absolute percentage error.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗