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Assessment of Brine Management for Geologic Carbon Sequestration

Geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) is the injection of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), typically captured from stationary emission sources, into deep geologic formations to prevent its entry into the atmosphere. Active pilot facilities run by regional United States (US) carbon sequestration partnerships inject on the order of one million metric tonnes (mt) CO 2 annually while the US electric power sector emits over 2000 million mt-CO 2 annually. GCS is likely to play an increasing role in US carbon mitigation initiatives, but scaling up GCS poses several challenges. Injecting CO 2 into sedimentary basins raises fluid pressure in the pore space, which is typically already occupied by naturally occurring, or native, brine. The resulting elevated pore pressures increase the likelihood of induced seismicity, of brine or CO 2 escaping into potable groundwater resources, and of CO 2 escaping into the atmosphere. Brine extraction is one method for pressure management, in which brine in the injection formation is brought to the surface through extraction wells. Removal of the brine makes room for the CO 2 and decreases pressurization. Although the technology required for brine extraction is mature, this form of pressure management will only be applicable if there are cost-­effective and sustainable methods of disposing of the extracted brine. Brine extraction, treatment, and disposal may increase the already substantial capital, energy, and water demands of Carbon dioxide Capture and Sequestration (CCS). But, regionally specific brine management strategies may be able to treat the extracted water as a source of revenue, energy, and water to subsidize CCS costs, while minimizing environmental impacts. By this approach, value from the extracted water would be recovered before disposing of any resulting byproducts. Until a price is placed on carbon, we expect that utilities and other CO 2 sources will be reluctant to invest in capital intensive, high risk GCS projects; early technical, economic, and environmental assessments of brine management are extremely valuable for determining the potential role of GCS in the US. We performed a first order feasibility and economic assessment, at three different locations in the US, of twelve GCS extracted-­water management options, including: geothermal energy extraction, desalination, salt and mineral harvesting, rare-­earth element harvesting, aquaculture, algae biodiesel production, road de-­icing, enhanced geothermal system (EGS) recharge, underground reinjection, landfill disposal, ocean disposal, and evaporation pond disposal. Three saline aquifers from different regions of the US were selected as hypothetical GCS project sites to encompass variation in parameters that are relevant to the feasibility and economics of brine disposal. The three aquifers are the southern Mt. Simon Sandstone Formation in the Illinois Basin, IL; the Vedder Formation in the southern San Joaquin Basin, CA; and the Jasper Interval in the eastern Texas Gulf Basin, TX. These aquifers are candidates for GCS due to their physical characteristics and their close proximity to large CO 2 emission sources. Feasibility and impacts were calculated using one mt-­CO 2 injected as the functional unit of brine management. Scenarios were performed for typical 1000MW coal-­fired power plants (CFPP) that incurred an assumed 24 percent carbon capture energy penalty (EP), injected 90 percent of CO 2 emissions (~9 million mt-­ CO 2 injected annually), and treated extracted water onsite. Net present value (NPV), land requirements, laws and regulations, and technological limits were determined for each stage of disposal, and used to estimate feasibility. The boundary of the assessment began once extracted water was brought to the surface, and ended once the water evaporated, was injected underground, or was discharged into surface water bodies. Results of the assessment were generated, stored, and analyzed using Microsoft Excel spreadsheets and ESRI Geographical Information System (GIS) maps. Conclusions about the relative benefits and impacts of alternative brine-­management strategies were highly sensitive to local climate and weather, and aquifer water chemistry. The NPV of certain scenarios ranged from -­$50/mt-­CO 2 (a cost) to +$10/mt-­CO 2 (revenue). The land footprint of the scenarios in this study ranged from <1 km 2 to 100 km 2 . Brine extraction as a pressure management tool for GCS has potential for improving the economics and for minimizing the environmental impacts of CCS. In order to maximize this potential, careful analysis of each saline aquifer and region must be conducted to determine a regionally appropriate brine use sequence (BUS) at the time of site selection. Models that use GIS will be essential tools in determining such sequences for individual CFPP. Future studies that perform risk and life cycle assessments (LCA) of BUS scenarios, incorporate additional impact metrics into the BUS model, and enhance the temporal sensitivity of the model would improve the robustness of this regional assessment method.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing Regional Scale Variability in Extreme Value Statistics Under Altered Climate Scenarios

Recent studies have suggested that low-frequency modes of climate variability can significantly influence regional climate. The climatology associated with extreme events has been shown to be particularly sensitive. This has profound implications for droughts, heat waves, and food production. We propose to examine regional climate simulations conducted over the continental United States by applying a recently developed technique which combines wavelet multi–resolution analysis with information theory metrics. This research is motivated by two fundamental questions concerning the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events. These questions are 1) what temporal scales of the extreme value distributions are most sensitive to alteration by low-frequency climate forcings and 2) what is the nature of the spatial structure of variation in these timescales? The primary objective is to assess to what extent information theory metrics can be useful in characterizing the nature of extreme weather phenomena. Specifically, we hypothesize that (1) changes in the nature of extreme events will impact the temporal probability density functions and that information theory metrics will be sensitive these changes and (2) via a wavelet multi–resolution analysis, we will be able to characterize the relative contribution of different timescales on the stochastic nature of extreme events. In order to address these hypotheses, we propose a unique combination of an established regional climate modeling approach and advanced statistical techniques to assess the effects of low-frequency modes on climate extremes over North America. The behavior of climate extremes in RCM simulations for the 20th century will be compared with statistics calculated from the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). This effort will serve to establish the baseline behavior of climate extremes, the validity of an innovative multi–resolution information theory approach, and the ability of the RCM modeling framework to represent the low-frequency modulation of extreme climate events. Once the skill of the modeling and analysis methodology has been established, we will apply the same approach for the AR5 (IPCC Fifth Assessment Report) climate change scenarios in order to assess how climate extremes and the the influence of lowfrequency variability on climate extremes might vary under changing climate. The research specifically addresses the DOE focus area 2. Simulation of climate extremes under a changing climate. Specific results will include (1) a better understanding of the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events, (2) a thorough quantification of how extreme values are impacted by low-frequency climate teleconnections, (3) increased knowledge of current regional climate models ability to ascertain these influences, and (4) a detailed examination of the how the distribution of extreme events are likely to change under different climate change scenarios. In addition, this research will assess the ability of the innovative wavelet information theory approach to characterize extreme events. Any and all of these results will greatly enhance society’s ability to understand and mitigate the regional ramifications of future global climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Fiscal Year 2014 Revegetation Assessment

This report summarizes the Fiscal Year 2014 Revegetation Assessment by Battelle Energy Alliance, LLC. This assessment was conducted to document revegetation efforts at Idaho National Laboratory to ensure that disturbed vegetation and soil at various locations are being restored. This report provides the following information for each site being monitored by the Idaho National Laboratory Environmental Support and Services: • Summary of each site • Assessment of vegetation status and site stabilization at each location • Actions and Resolutions for each site. Five disturbed sites were evaluated for this assessment. Four sites are recommended to be removed from the annual assessment, and one is recommended for continued evaluation. New sites are also identified for future monitoring as part of the annual assessment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Technology Performance Level Assessment Methodology.

The technology performance level (TPL) assessments can be applied at all technology development stages and associated technology readiness levels (TRLs). Even, and particularly, at low TRLs the TPL assessment is very effective as it, holistically, considers a wide range of WEC attributes that determine the techno-economic performance potential of the WEC farm when fully developed for commercial operation. The TPL assessment also highlights potential showstoppers at the earliest possible stage of the WEC technology development. Hence, the TPL assessment identifies the technology independent “performance requirements.” In order to achieve a successful solution, the entirety of the performance requirements within the TPL must be considered because, in the end, all the stakeholder needs must be achieved. The basis for performing a TPL assessment comes from the information provided in a dedicated format, the Technical Submission Form (TSF). The TSF requests information from the WEC developer that is required to answer the questions posed in the TPL assessment document.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Induced seismicity and carbon storage: Risk assessment and mitigation strategies

Geologic carbon storage (GCS) is widely recognized as an important strategy to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Like all technologies, however, sequestration projects create a number of potential environmental and safety hazards that must be addressed. These include earthquakes—from microseismicity to large, damaging events—that can be triggered by altering pore-pressure conditions in the subsurface. To date, measured seismicity due to CO 2 injection has been limited to a few modest events, but the hazard exists and must be considered. There are important similarities between CO 2 injection and fluid injection from other applications that have induced significant events—e.g. geothermal systems, waste-fluid injection, hydrocarbon extraction, and others. There are also important distinctions among these technologies that should be considered in a discussion of seismic hazard. This report focuses on strategies for assessing and mitigating risk during each phase of a CO 2 storage project. Four key risks related to fault reactivation and induced seismicity were considered. Induced slip on faults could potentially lead to: (1) infrastructure damage, (2) a public nuisance, (3) brine-contaminated drinking water, and (4) CO 2 -contaminated drinking water. These scenarios lead to different types of damage—to property, to drinking water quality, or to the public welfare. Given these four risks, this report focuses on strategies for assessing (and altering) their likelihoods of occurrence and the damage that may result. This report begins with an overview of the basic physical mechanisms behind induced seismicity. This science basis—and its gaps—is crucial because it forms the foundation for risk assessment and mitigation. Available techniques for characterizing and monitoring seismic behavior are also described. Again, this technical basis—and its limitations—must be factored into the risk assessment and mitigation approach. A phased approach to risk management is then introduced. The basic goal of the phased approach is to constantly adapt site operations to current conditions and available characterization data. The remainder of the report then focuses in detail on different components of the monitoring, risk assessment, and mitigation strategies. Issues in current seismic risk assessment methods that must be modified to address induce seismicity are highlighted. The report then concludes with several specific recommendations for operators and regulatory authorities to consider when selecting, permitting, and operating a storage project.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Proposed Methodology for Assessing Available Drawdowns for Each Oil Storage Cavern in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve

The Department of Energy maintains an up-to-date documentation of the number of available full drawdowns of each of the caverns owned by the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This information is important for assessing the SPR's ability to deliver oil to domestic oil companies expeditiously if national or world events dictate a rapid sale and deployment of the oil reserves. What factors go into assessing available drawdowns? Determining the number of drawdowns requires the consideration of several factors regarding cavern and wellbore integrity and stability, including stress states caused by cavern geometry and operations, salt damage caused by dilatant and tensile stresses, the effect of enhanced creep on wellbore integrity, and the sympathetic stress effect of operations on neighboring caverns. A consensus has now been built regarding the assessment of drawdown capabilities and risks for the SPR caverns. The process involves an initial assessment of the pillar-to-diameter (P/D) ratio for each cavern with respect to neighboring caverns. Ideally, it is desired to keep this value greater than 1.0, which is in line with most industry design standards and should ensure cavern integrity and prevent loss of fluids to the surrounding rock mass. However, many of the SPR caverns currently have a P/D less than 1.0, or will likely have a low P/D after one or two full drawdowns. For these caverns, it is important to examine the structural integrity with more detail using geomechanical models. Finite-element geomechanical models have been used to determine the stress states in the pillars following successive drawdowns. By computing the tensile and dilatant stresses in the salt, areas of potential structural instability can be identified that may represent "red flags" for additional drawdowns. These analyses have found that many caverns will maintain structural integrity even when grown via drawdowns to dimensions resulting in a P/D of less than 1.0. The analyses have also confirmed that certain caverns should only be completely drawn down one time. As the SPR caverns are utilized and partial drawdowns are performed to remove oil from the caverns (e.g., for occasional oil sales authorized by the Congress or the President), the changes to the cavern volumes casused by these procedures must be tracked and accounted for so that an ongoing assessment of the cavern's drawdown capacity may be continued. A proposed methodology for assessing and tracking the available drawdowns for each cavern is presented in this report.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Life Cycle Assessment of Future Photovoltaic Electricity Production from Residential-scale Systems Operated in Europe

The photovoltaics (PV) industry is growing rapidly to meet the increasing demand of green power. As the industry grows, the manufacturing processes and the material and energy efficiencies of PV cells and panels are improving. To assess the impacts of this trend, future scenarios of single-crystalline (single-Si, also known as mono-crystalline) silicon and cadmium-telluride (CdTe) PV systems installed on European residences were established. Assessment of the improvement potential of PV electricity-generating technologies such as single-Si and CdTe could be considered in long-term energy strategy decisions. This study aims to provide scenario-based information about the environmental per-formance of single-Si and CdTe PV modules produced and operated in the far future (2030 to 2050). The deployment application assessed considers European residential roofs. We made scenario-dependent projections of key parameters for single-Si and CdTe PV panels manufactured in 2050. The parameters included cell efficiency, module efficiency, wafer thickness, cutting losses, kerf losses, silver use, glass thickness and operational lifetime. This study combines developments for these parameters with projections of the environmental performance of electricity mixes in the main manufacturing countries/regions (European Union, China and the United States of America) and with projections of the environ-mental performance of basic material production (aluminium, copper, magnesium, nickel, pig iron, zinc, clinker and flat glass) in the far future. The three scenarios used in the assessment of future PV electricity were categorized into three classes: 'business as usual' (BAU), 'realistic improvement' (REAL) and 'optimistic improvement' (OPT). It estimates the current life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of single-Si PV electricity produced on the roofs of European residences to be approximately 80 grams CO2-equi-valent per kWh (g CO2-eq per kWh). Based on the projected changes to key parameters and the background system, life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions could be reduced to 65% (scenario BAU), 31% (scenario REAL) and 18% (scenario OPT) of that value in the far future. Results for other life cycle assessment (LCA) metrics are also assessed in this study such as: non-renewable cumulative energy demand, acidification potential, human toxicity potential, photochemical ozone creation potential, particulate matter formation potential, and land use. We calculated the total energy payback time (EPBT) and the non-renewable energy payback time (NREPBT) in the far future of single-crystalline silicon-based PV panels operated in Europe by dividing the estimate of non-renewable cumulative energy demand of PV electricity for the given scenario by the non-renewable cumulative energy demand of the scenario-dependent national and regional non-renewable residual electricity mixes. The study estimates the payback time could be reduced from 2.4 years today to 1.7, 1.2 and 1.2 years (scenarios BAU, REAL and OPT, respectively) in the far future, based on the assumptions and projections in the analysis. It finally estimates the current life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of CdTe PV electricity produced on the roofs of European residences to be approximately 30 g CO2-eq per kWh. Based on the projected changes to key parameters and the background system, life cycle GHG emissions could be reduced to 70% (scenario BAU), 44% (scenario REAL) and 32% (scenario OPT) of that value in the far future.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Southeast Offshore Storage Resource Assessment (SOSRA) (Final Technical Report)

Subsurface geologic storage of CO 2 can play a major role in offsetting greenhouse gas emissions in a manner that is safe, economical, and acceptable to the public. Due to legal advantages and potential vast resource capacity, offshore storage offers an attractive alternative to onshore storage. Indeed, the success of the Sleipner project in the North Sea demonstrates the technical feasibility of offshore storage as not only a viable option, but as an early opportunity for commercial deployment. Although the storage capacity of offshore reservoirs is expected to be vast, no comprehensive assessment of the offshore storage resource in the southeastern United States had been performed. In a preliminary analysis of a 10,000 mi 2 area of offshore Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle, Hills and Pashin (2010) suggested that about 170 Gt of CO 2 could be stored in Miocene sandstone and that at least 30 Gt could be stored in deeper Cretaceous formations. A task force convened by the Southern States Energy Board (SSEB) and the Interstate Oil and Gas Compact Commission (IOGCC) found that no assessment had been made of the offshore storage resource potential in the shelf areas of the Atlantic seaboard and the eastern Gulf of Mexico in the southeastern US. Considering that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency estimates that about 40% of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions in the US are generated in the southeast, the lack of an offshore CO 2 assessment constitutes a major gap in understanding of the regional storage resource. In order to address this significant gap in knowledge of the regional storage resources and geologic capacity the Southern States Energy Board (SSEB) led a coalition of southern universities and technical experts to assess prospective geologic storage resources for carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in the State and Federal waters of three planning areas: The Mid-Atlantic; The South Atlantic; and The eastern Gulf of Mexico. The Southeast Offshore Storage Resource Assessment (SOSRA) project developed a high-level approximation of the amount of CO 2 that might be stored utilizing key geologic and environmental factors which influence the storage potential. The research included significant advances in knowledge and technology that will facilitate assessment and quantification of offshore CO 2 storage resources in the SOSRA region and provide a pathway toward commercialization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

SCALE Lattice Physics Code Assessments of Accident Tolerant Fuel

This report highlights accident-tolerant fuel (ATF) code assessment activities performed under Project NRCHQ- 60-17-T-0017, Lattice Physics Enhancements and Assessment. ATF covers a broad range of advanced fuel and clad designs for light water reactors (LWRs) to enhance performance under several accident conditions. Several ATF concepts are anticipated to be deployed as lead test rods (LTRs) or lead test assemblies (LTAs) within the next five years. The purpose of this work is to assess the predictive capabilities of NRC neutronics codes that underpin various licensing calculations. ATF designs use different fuel and clad materials compared to standard UO 2 fuel and zirconium-alloy claddings (hereafter UO 2 -Zry). These new materials and geometrical designs need to be assessed to quantify the impact of nuclear data uncertainties on quantities of interest (QOIs) in licensing calculations and the impact of modeling approximations which may be valid for UO 2 -Zry but not for ATF. This report outlines a systematic approach for ATF neutronics code assessment which includes sensitivity and uncertainty (S/U) analysis of nuclear data, identification of experimental benchmark and gaps for code validation, investigation of modeling approximations, and code-to-code comparisons of calculated QOIs against high-fidelity reference continuous energy (CE) Monte Carlo (MC) calculations. This report focuses on the assessment of the SCALE/Polaris lattice physics code for reactor safety analysis. Polaris lattice physics calculations generate few group (FG) cross sections for PARCS full-core calculations. (Full-core analysis, spent fuel analysis, and severe accident analysis will be performed in future work.) The selected ATF concepts for this report include Cr 2 O 3 and Al 2 O 3 -Cr 2 O 3 -doped UO 2 fuel, U 3 Si 2 fuel, FeCrAl cladding, SiC cladding, and Cr-coated cladding.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicle Electrification: An Assessment of Technology and Knowledge Gaps

The objective of this assessment was to leverage current medium- and heavy-duty vehicle (MHDV) data and information to evaluate the state of commercial vehicle electrification technologies, including the following: 1. Assessment and inventory of current MHDV electrification architectures; 2. Identification and assessment of MHDV component technologies; 3. Assessment of potential performance and cost drivers; and, 4. Identification of R&D gaps where appropriate R&D and technology would accelerate commercial vehicle electrification. These gaps include shortfalls in technology, gaps in data, and inadequate knowledge and understanding. To inform this study, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory–Oak Ridge National Laboratory team examined the open literature; conducted workshops; assessed and analyzed data on more than 175 electrified MHDVs, including vehicle and powertrain specifications; and conducted one-on-one meetings with industry representatives. This systems-level information was concatenated and parsed with respect to key characteristics such as battery energy, power, and range compared across vehicle classes. Operational data of many conventional vehicles were also examined to help determine the requirements on electrified vehicle attributes such as range. Previous studies on the total cost of ownership of electrified MHDVs were reviewed to determine where improvements in technologies (efficiency, cost, maintenance) were needed to accelerate adoption. The team also assessed the state of the art in electric drivetrains for component specifications and challenges for the commercial vehicle sector, including electric machines, power electronics, and off-board high-power charging systems (extreme fast charging and beyond). The goal of this analysis was to identify the barriers to widespread adoption of commercial vehicle electrification technologies and prioritize the research and development gaps that need to be overcome to accelerate significant market penetration of these technologies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

U.S. Industrial and Commercial Motor System Market Assessment Report Volume 1: Characteristics of the Installed Base

Motor systems are an integral part of our industrial and commercial facilities. They provide the motive force behind the fans, pumps, compressors, chillers, and conveyors in these facilities. Given their centrality to any facility’s operations, they are a critical energy end use to understand, particularly when developing technologies and policies to meet sustainability goals, improve productivity, and enhance resilience. In the late 1990s, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) conducted two seminal studies to better understand the installed stock and energy savings opportunities of industrial and commercial motor systems. In the industrial sector, The United States Industrial Electric Motor Systems Market Opportunities Assessment used primary data collected through onsite assessments and led to a greater understanding of the installed base of motor systems, their characteristics, and the opportunities for energy savings (U.S. Department of Energy, 2002). Notable findings included the following: Industrial motor systems consumed 679 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 1994, representing 23 percent of U.S. electricity consumption. Cost-effective energy efficiency measures could result in 62-104 billion kWh of energy savings annually. Sixty-two percent of the energy savings potential was from fan, pump, and compressor end use equipment. Nearly half of motor system electricity consumption was attributable to approximately 3,500 facilities, or 1.5 percent of U.S. manufacturing facilities. Opportunities for Energy Savings in the Residential and Commercial Sectors with High Efficiency Electric Motors provided an evaluation of the installed stock of motor driven equipment in U.S. commercial and residential buildings and opportunities for utilization of high efficiency motors and variable speed technologies (Arthur D. Little, 1999). Notable findings included the following: Commercial motor systems consumed 343 billion kWh in 1995, with refrigeration and space conditioning constituting 93 percent of the total. Cost-effective energy efficiency measures could result in 51 billion kWh of energy savings annually. Due in no small part to these seminal studies, motor system technologies and usage characteristics have changed drastically since the late 1990s. Greater awareness of cost-effective strategies for reducing motor system electricity consumption have been developed and deployed. This includes several software tools, literature, and utility and government programs promoting energy efficiency improvements in motor driven systems. Additionally, several rounds of energy efficiency standards have been enacted, resulting in improved installed motor efficiency. The cost of variable speed drives has dropped substantially, and combined with utility rebate programs, has led to their greater adoption. Further, since these results were published, the U.S. manufacturing sector has undergone a massive transformation. Due to global competition, some sectors have relocated operations overseas. Others have brought operations onshore to avail low cost and abundant natural gas. Additionally, automation and robotics have pervaded the entire sector. Consequently, these two reports likely do not represent the current state of motor driven systems in U.S. industrial and commercial facilities. As cited in recent studies, the lack of current information on motor system electricity consumption and use characteristics limits the ability to conduct analysis on energy savings potential, develop technologies to address energy and productivity gaps, and develop programs to promote energy efficiency practices and technologies for motor systems (International Energy Agency, 2007; UNIDO, 2010; McKane and Hasanbeigi, 2011; Waide and Brunner, 2011). Specifically, the lack of information affects a range of stakeholders: Governments must rely on outdated information when setting research agendas, developing policies, and designing energy efficiency programs and offerings. Utilities and energy efficiency programs cannot identify the current market needs or potential impact when designing rebate and energy efficiency programs. Electric grid planners cannot identify motor system usage characteristics when developing plans to support the resilience of the electric grid. Manufacturers of motors, motor driven equipment, and drives are hampered when developing technologies to meet the needs of their market. Motor system end users are limited in their ability to identify energy saving opportunities within their own facilities because they do not have reliable benchmark information. In response to the lack of current information and analysis on industrial and commercial motor systems, the DOE initiated an update to these two studies. Launched in 2016 and led by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), the Motor System Market Assessment (MSMA) provides an updated, more comprehensive assessment of the installed stock of motor systems in both the industrial and commercial sectors, a review of the supply chains supporting motor and drives in the U.S., and the performance improvement opportunity available from using best available technologies and maintenance and operation practices. The outcomes of the MSMA are documented in three U.S. Industrial and Commercial Motor System Market Assessment reports, with this report being the first listed: 1. Volume 1: Characteristics of the Installed Base (this report) documents the findings on the installed base of motor systems in the U.S. industrial and commercial sectors. Quantification of energy savings potential is not documented in this report but in Volume 3. 2. Volume 2: Motors and Drives Supply Chain Review reviews the state of supply chains for motors and drives installed in U.S. industrial and commercial facilities, focusing on advanced motor and drive technologies and their constituent materials. 3. Volume 3: Energy Savings Opportunity analyzes the energy performance improvement opportunity for the installed base of U.S. industrial and commercial motor systems. This report has been prepared as a reference for motor system stakeholders. It provides factual information as could be best determined by the assessment results and avoids speculating on any findings.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

SCALE 6.2 Lattice Physics Performance Assessment

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission relies on the lattice physics analysis capabilities of the SCALE code system to perform confirmatory licensing analyses. Either SCALE lattice physics code—TRITON/NEWT or Polaris—can be used to generate cross section data used by the PARCS nodal core simulator for full-core neutronics calculations. This report presents an assessment of the accuracy of SCALE lattice physics codes for preparation of lattice physics data that are used to support simulator codes such as the NRC’s PARCS, for UO 2 -mixed oxide (MOX)/Zr fueled light water reactor (LWR) analyses. Due to the nature of lattice physics calculations, critical reactor experiment benchmarks cannot be modeled in explicit detail in a lattice physics code. However, this limitation does not mean that these measurement data are not usable for lattice physics studies. Therefore, either geometry approximations or axial buckling must be implemented to determine the critical water height. These modeling limitations have led to development of a three-phase assessment strategy. In the first phase, selected critical experiment benchmarks are modeled using the SCALE 3D continuous-energy (CE) Monte Carlo (MC) code KENO, which is the most rigorous neutron transport method available in SCALE, with no approximations in the spatial, angle, or energy treatments. Biases and statistical uncertainties in quantities of interest such as k eff and pin power distributions are determined by comparing CE KENO results to experimental data. This first phase in the accuracy assessment is to demonstrate and establish the use of CE KENO as a reference solution for the second phase. In the second phase, 14 numerical test suites are used to compare SCALE lattice physics calculations with CE KENO as a reference solution. In the third phase, SCALE lattice physics depletion calculations are performed, and the spent fuel isotopic results are compared with available radiochemical assay measurements. Isotopic measurement comparisons provide quantitative assessment of isotopic density distribution predictions with the depletion models in SCALE lattice physics codes. This report documents results for all test suites. The assessment was performed using standard production techniques unless otherwise noted. Both TRITON/NEWT and Polaris exhibited acceptable accuracy for most test cases. For the few test cases in which acceptable accuracy criteria were not met, further code and data development are planned. The computer codes used in this assessment are as follows: SCALE 6.2 rev19189 (pre-release of 6.2.1) was used for CE KENO, TRITON/NEWT and Polaris (PWR only) calculations; SCALE 6.2.2 was used for Polaris calculations to address several updates in support of support boiling water reactor (BWR) lattice geometries. For this work, there is no difference between SCALE 6.2.1 and SCALE 6.2.2 beyond the inclusion of the Polaris BWR analysis capability; The ENDF/B-VII.1 continuous energy and 252 group libraries deployed in SCALE 6.2 were generated with AMPX 6.2 that is distributed with SCALE.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A Prefire Approach for Probabilistic Assessments of Postfire Debris-Flow Inundation

Increases in wildfire activity and rainfall intensification are driving more postfire debris flows (PFDF) in many regions around the world. PFDFs are most common in the first postfire year and may even occur before a fire is fully controlled. This underscores the importance of assessing postfire hazards before a fire starts. Evaluation of PFDF hazards prior to fire can help strategize interventions lessening the negative effects of future fires. However, debris-flow runout and inundation analyses are not routine in PFDF hazard assessments, partially due to time constraints and substantial uncertainties in boundary conditions. Here, we propose a prefire PFDF inundation assessment framework using a debris-flow runout model based on the Herschel-Bulkley (HB) rheology (HEC-RAS v6.1). We constrain model inputs and parameters using Bayesian posterior analysis, rainfall-runoff simulations, and a debris-flow volume model. We use observations from recent PFDF incidents in northern Arizona, USA, to calibrate model components and then apply our prefire inundation assessment framework in a nearby unburned area. Specifically, we (a) identify yield stress as the most influential factor on inundation extent and arrival time in a HB model, (b) establish posterior distributions for model parameters suitable for forward modeling by leveraging uncertainties in field observations, and (c) implement a predictive forward analysis in an area that has not burned recently to evaluate PFDF inundation under several future fire scenarios. This study improves our ability to assess postfire debris-flow hazards before a fire begins and provides guidance for future applications of single-phase rheological models when assessing PFDF hazards.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improving and Assessing the Quality of Uncertainty Quantification in Deep Learning

Deep learning (DL) models have enjoyed increased attention in recent years because of their powerful predictive capabilities. While many successes have been achieved, standard deep learning methods suffer from a lack of uncertainty quantification (UQ). While the development of methods for producing UQ from DL models is an active area of current research, little attention has been given to the quality of the UQ produced by such methods. In order to deploy DL models to high-consequence applications, high-quality UQ is necessary. This report details the research and development conducted as part of a Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at Sandia National Laboratories. The focus of this project is to develop a framework of methods and metrics for the principled assessment of UQ quality in DL models. This report presents an overview of UQ quality assessment in traditional statistical modeling and describes why this approach is difficult to apply in DL contexts. An assessment on relatively simple simulated data is presented to demonstrate that UQ quality can differ greatly between DL models trained on the same data. A method for simulating image data that can then be used for UQ quality assessment is described. A general method for simulating realistic data for the purpose of assessing a model’s UQ quality is also presented. A Bayesian uncertainty framework for understanding uncertainty and existing metrics is described. Research that came out of collaborations with two university partners are discussed along with a software toolkit that is currently being developed to implement the UQ quality assessment framework as well as serve as a general guide to incorporating UQ into DL applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Initial Assessment of CTF for Time-at-Temperature Applications

The US nuclear industry is interested in improving the economics of their fleet of light-water reactors (LWRs) by uprating US plants. One option being considered is to regain lost margin from overly conservative fuel safety limits. The current limit requires avoidance of critical heat flux (CHF) and prevents further operation of fuel that experiences a dry-out in boiling water reactors (BWRs) or departure from nucleate boiling (DNB) in pressurized water reactors (PWRs); however, it has been shown that temporary, mild dry-out of the fuel does not necessarily increase the risk of fuel failure during its normal anticipated operating life. Such mild dry-out or DNB events may occur during a plant anticipated operational occurrence (AOO), such as a locked rotor in a PWR or a pump trip in a BWR. The time-at-temperature (TAT) approach to regulating fuel operation aims to demonstrate that the fuel rod’s integrity is not challenged during such a mild transient that leads to CHF in which the fuel operates at an elevated temperature for a brief period of time. However, implementing this approach will require extensive fuel material experimental data, as well as supporting modeling and simulation (M&S) predictions, to ensure that the predicted fuel response during AOOs, with all applicable uncertainty considered, will not threaten the safety of the fuel during the transient or the remainder of its anticipated lifecycle. To address this need, a comprehensive effort is being proposed that includes generating cladding material data under TAT conditions, assessment of available code capabilities for TAT conditions, development of new mechanistic models, and demonstration of the M&S capabilities for AOOs of interest. This will require a joint effort between the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) and Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC) programs, as well as close collaboration with nuclear industry stakeholders. The outcome of this collaboration will result in development and assessment of capabilities that can be used by the nuclear industry to support qualification of a TAT-based fuel failure criteria safety limit. This report focuses on the thermal hydraulics (T/H) modeling capabilities and summarizes currently available data for validating the T/H subchannel code CTF for TAT conditions, as well as preliminary assessment results of the code. The initial assessment also resulted in implementation of an alternative post-CHF heat transfer package, which has been shown to significantly improve accuracy. This report is not a final assessment and does not consider all available validation data; it is intended that a future assessment will more fully validate the code for this application.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) Infrastructure Security Division (ISD) Assessment Prioritization Project

The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency’s Infrastructure Security Division (CISA ISD) manages a diverse portfolio of assessments across the nation’s critical infrastructure sectors. These assessments—ranging in type, scope, and complexity—are essential for identifying vulnerabilities and strengthening national security. However, the wide variation in assessment offerings and the increasing demand for limited resources have highlighted the need for a transparent, structured approach to prioritizing assessment activities. To address this challenge, CISA ISD partnered with Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) to review current assessment methodologies, analyze existing prioritization practices, and develop a comprehensive, national-security-focused prioritization framework. This report summarizes the project’s approach, key findings, and actionable recommendations for enhancing ISD’s assessment program.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Southeast Regional CO 2 Utilization and Storage Acceleration Partnership (SECARB-USA): Needs Assessment Framework for Storage Complexes Contributed to EDX (Work Product 2.1.c)

On September 30, 2021, a Needs Assessment Framework for Storage Complexes was completed for the SECARB-USA region by the Southern States Energy Board (SSEB) and The University of Texas at Austin Bureau of Economic Geology (UT-BEG). The Needs Assessment Framework for Storage Complexes documented a region-wide assessment to identify data needed to advance storage projects at sites of relevance to industrial, academic, and government stakeholders. The region-wide assessment addresses the needs of CO2 source, storage, and utilization stakeholders, finance and insurance institutions, state and local government agencies, local stakeholders at prospective storage complexes, environmental non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and others as identified by the Partners. This assessment was tested against various potential storage sites and modified to include site-specific issues, such as surface or pore space rights. The framework was provided to stakeholders for review and then used in other tasks, such as the ML initiative (Subtask 3.4) and storage complex readiness evaluation (Subtask 4.2). In accordance with the SOPO, this assessment satisfied completion of Work Product 2.1.b. The OSTI ID is 3015803, and the DOI link is https://doi.org/10.2172/3015803. On February 28, 2022, SSEB uploaded Work Product 2.1.b to NETL’s Energy Data eXchange (EDX). As such, Work Product 2.1.c is completed as documented below.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Technology assessment and citizen action

The importance of citizen participation in the assessment process is discussed, and a system for citizen assessment action is proposed. A national assessment system is outlined. Citizen participation is considered essential in the assessment process, and impediments to effective action taken by citizens are discussed. These impediments are finance, organization and motivation, and information. The establishment of citizens' assessment associations is proposed, whose functioning would be fostered and regulated by the Citizens' Assessment Administration. The organization, functions, and financing of these associations are described. The implications of citizen action are indicated as the extensive use of class action suits, the broad interpretation of associated costs of litigation, and the use of present scientific research as evidence to assert that it is reasonable to conclude that certain consequences are probable to occur in the future.

Mottur, E. R.↗