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Online-coupled climate and chemistry models are necessary to realistically represent the interactions between climate variables and chemical species and accurately simulate aerosol direct and indirect effects on cloud, precipitation, and radiation. In this Part I of a two-part paper, simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with the physics package of Community Atmosphere Model (WRF-CAM5) are conducted with the default heterogeneous ice nucleation parameterization over East Asia for two full years: 2006 and 2011. A comprehensive model evaluation is performed using satellite and surface observations. The model shows an overall acceptable performance for major meteorological variables at the surface and in the boundary layer, as well as column variables (e.g., precipitation, cloud fraction, precipitating water vapor, downward longwave and shortwave radiation). Moderate to large biases exist for cloud condensation nuclei over oceanic areas, cloud variables (e.g., cloud droplet number concentration, cloud liquid and ice water paths, cloud optical depth, longwave and shortwave cloud forcing). These biases indicate a need to improve the model treatments for cloud processes, especially cloud droplets and ice nucleation, as well as to reduce uncertainty in the satellite retrievals. The model simulates well the column abundances of chemical species except for column SO 2 but relatively poor for surface concentrations of several species such as CO, NO 2 , SO 2 , PM2.5, and PM10. Several reasons could contribute to the underestimation of major chemical species in East Asia including underestimations of anthropogenic emissions and natural dust emissions, uncertainties in the spatial and vertical distributions of the anthropogenic emissions, as well as biases in meteorological, radiative, and cloud predictions. Despite moderate to large biases in the chemical predictions, the model performance is generally consistent with or even better than that reported for East Asia with only a few exceptions. The model generally reproduces the observed seasonal variations and the difference between 2006 and 2011 for most variables or chemical species. Overall, these results demonstrate promising skills of WRF-CAM5 for long-term simulations at a regional scale and suggest several areas of potential improvements.
Aerosol particles can affect cloud microphysical properties by serving as ice nuclei (IN). Large uncertainties exist in the ice nucleation parameterizations (INPs) used in current climate models. In this Part II paper, to examine the sensitivity of the model predictions to different heterogeneous INPs, WRF-CAM5 simulation using the INP of Niemand et al. (N12) [1] is conducted over East Asia for two full years, 2006 and 2011, and compared with simulation using the INP of Meyers et al. (M92) [2], which is the original INP used in CAM5. M92 calculates the nucleated ice particle concentration as a function of ice supersaturation, while N12 represents the nucleated ice particle concentration as a function of temperature and the number concentrations and surface areas of dust particles. Compared to M92, the WRF-CAM5 simulation with N12 produces significantly higher nucleated ice crystal number concentrations (ICNCs) in the northern domain where dust sources are located, leading to significantly higher cloud ice number and mass concentrations and ice water path, but the opposite is true in the southern domain where temperatures and moistures play a more important role in ice formation. Overall, the simulation with N12 gives lower downward shortwave radiation but higher downward longwave radiation, cloud liquid water path, cloud droplet number concentrations, and cloud optical depth. The increase in cloud optical depth and the decrease in downward solar flux result in a stronger shortwave and longwave cloud forcing, and decreases temperature at 2-m and precipitation. Changes in temperature and radiation lower surface concentrations of OH, O3, SO42−, and PM2.5, but increase surface concentrations of CO, NO2, and SO2 over most of the domain. By acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and IN, dust particles have different impacts on cloud water and ice number concentrations, radiation, and temperature at 2-m and precipitation depending on whether the dominant role of dust is CCN or IN. These results indicate the importance of the heterogeneous ice nucleation treatments and dust emissions in accurately simulating regional climate and air quality.
The early optical afterglow emission of several gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) shows a high linear polarization degree (PD) of tens of percent, suggesting an ordered magnetic field in the emission region. The light curves are consistent with being of a reverse shock (RS) origin. However, the magnetization parameter, σ , of the outflow is unknown. If σ is too small, an ordered field in the RS may be quickly randomized due to turbulence driven by various perturbations so that the PD may not be as high as observed. Here we use the “Athena++” relativistic MHD code to simulate a relativistic jet with an ordered magnetic field propagating into a clumpy ambient medium, with a focus on how density fluctuations may distort the ordered magnetic field and reduce PD in the RS emission for different σ values. For a given density fluctuation, we discover a clear power-law relationship between the relative PD reduction and the σ value of the outflow. Such a relation may be applied to estimate σ of the GRB outflows using the polarization data of early afterglows.
Detection and identification of special nuclear materials (SNMs) are an essential part of the US nonproliferation effort. Modern cutting-edge SNM detection methodologies rely more and more on modeling and simulation techniques. Experiments with radiological samples in realistic configurations, is the ultimate tool that establishes the minimum detection limits of SNMs in a host of different geometries. Modern modeling and simulation approaches have the potential to significantly reduce the number of experiments with radioactive sources needed to determine these detection limits and reduce the financial barrier to SNM detection. Unreliable nuclear data is one of the principal causes of uncertainty in modeling and simulating nuclear systems. In particular, nuclear cross sections introduce a significant uncertainty in the nuclear data. The goal of this research is to develop a methodology that will autonomously extract the correct nuclear resonance characteristics of experimental data in a reliable way, a task previously left to expert judgement. Accurate nuclear data will in turn allow contemporary modeling and simulation to become far more reliable, de-escalating the extent of experimental testing. Modeling and simulation techniques reduce the use and distribution of radiological sources, while at the same time increase the reliability of the currently used methods for the detection and identification of SNMs.
Terrestrial ecosystems have absorbed roughly 30% of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions over the past decades, but it is unclear whether this carbon (C) sink will endure into the future. Despite extensive modeling and experimental and observational studies, what fundamentally determines transient dynamics of terrestrial C storage under global change is still not very clear. Here we develop a new framework for understanding transient dynamics of terrestrial C storage through mathematical analysis and numerical experiments. Our analysis indicates that the ultimate force driving ecosystem C storage change is the C storage capacity, which is jointly determined by ecosystem C input (e.g., net primary production, NPP) and residence time. Since both C input and residence time vary with time, the C storage capacity is time-dependent and acts as a moving attractor that actual C storage chases. The rate of change in C storage is proportional to the C storage potential, which is the difference between the current storage and the storage capacity. The C storage capacity represents instantaneous responses of the land C cycle to external forcing, whereas the C storage potential represents the internal capability of the land C cycle to influence the C change trajectory in the next time step. The influence happens through redistribution of net C pool changes in a network of pools with different residence times. Moreover, this and our other studies have demonstrated that one matrix equation can replicate simulations of most land C cycle models (i.e., physical emulators). As a result, simulation outputs of those models can be placed into a three-dimensional (3-D) parameter space to measure their differences. The latter can be decomposed into traceable components to track the origins of model uncertainty. In addition, the physical emulators make data assimilation computationally feasible so that both C flux- and pool-related datasets can be used to better constrain model predictions of land C sequestration. Altogether, this new mathematical framework offers new approaches to understanding, evaluating, diagnosing, and improving land C cycle models.
Abstract. While global hydrological models (GHMs) are very useful in exploring water resources and interactions between the Earth and human systems, their use often requires numerous model inputs, complex model calibration, and high computation costs. To overcome these challenges, we construct an efficient open-source and ready-to-use hydrological emulator (HE) that can mimic complex GHMs at a range of spatial scales (e.g., basin, region, globe). More specifically, we construct both a lumped and a distributed scheme of the HE based on the monthly abcd model to explore the tradeoff between computational cost and model fidelity. Model predictability and computational efficiency are evaluated in simulating global runoff from 1971 to 2010 with both the lumped and distributed schemes. The results are compared against the runoff product from the widely used Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. Our evaluation indicates that the lumped and distributed schemes present comparable results regarding annual total quantity, spatial pattern, and temporal variation of the major water fluxes (e.g., total runoff, evapotranspiration) across the global 235 basins (e.g., correlation coefficient r between the annual total runoff from either of these two schemes and the VIC is >0.96), except for several cold (e.g., Arctic, interior Tibet), dry (e.g., North Africa) and mountainous (e.g., Argentina) regions. Compared against the monthly total runoff product from the VIC (aggregated from daily runoff), the global mean Kling–Gupta efficiencies are 0.75 and 0.79 for the lumped and distributed schemes, respectively, with the distributed scheme better capturing spatial heterogeneity. Notably, the computation efficiency of the lumped scheme is 2 orders of magnitude higher than the distributed one and 7 orders more efficient than the VIC model. A case study of uncertainty analysis for the world's 16 basins with top annual streamflow is conducted using 100 000 model simulations, and it demonstrates the lumped scheme's extraordinary advantage in computational efficiency. Our results suggest that the revised lumped abcd model can serve as an efficient and reasonable HE for complex GHMs and is suitable for broad practical use, and the distributed scheme is also an efficient alternative if spatial heterogeneity is of more interest.
This paper surveys the existing landscape of standards relevant to heliostats, identifies their gaps, and proposes a path forward to a comprehensive set of heliostat guidelines, technical specifications, and standards under the framework of International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) TC 117. Gaps in existing guidelines and standards are surveyed using a three-tiered taxonomy: component-level, heliostat-level, and field-level. At each level, the gap analysis is followed by a proposal for a coordinated path forward on the development of standards. At the component level, advances in the understanding of wind loading should inform a technical specification for drives and structures. Reflectors require consolidation of measurement guidelines into existing standards documents. Communications & controls require technical standards to inform their selection and secure implementation. At the heliostat level, IEC 62817 (solar trackers) adequately characterizes drive systems, structures, and electronics, but requires adaptation to heliostats' use patterns, operating modes, and expected life cycles. IEC 62817 does not address heliostat beam quality and pointing accuracy, but the process for determining both is elaborated in the SolarPACES Guideline for Heliostat Performance Testing. This SolarPACES document requires two main modifications: adaptation to IEC language and inclusion of testing after heliostats which have undergone accelerated weathering and mechanical cycling (to understand performance degradation). At the field level, IEC 62862-4-2 addresses the function and control of heliostat fields but does not cover the statistically rigorous testing of heliostat groups, or field performance factors like security and soiling. The addition of documents under IEC-62862-4 is proposed to address this gap.
Dependency analysis in human reliability analysis (HRA) is a method of adjusting the failure probability of a given action by considering the impact of the action preceding it. It plays a role in reasonably accounting for human actions in the context of probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs), preventing PSA results from being estimated too optimistically based on the HRA results. Nevertheless, the existing dependency methods present a couple of challenges in that the quantification approaches rarely explain the adjustment of human error probabilities (HEPs). For this reason, the authors’ previous research has pointed out challenges of the existing dependency approaches and conceptually, theoretically proposed a performance shaping factor (PSF)-based dynamic dependency analysis method for HRA in order to complement the existing dependency methods. The current paper explores the latest version of the method and guidance for applying it to a steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) scenario.
Abstract not provided.
Telemetry and command subsystems for spacecraft electronic systems - microelectronic circuit techniques
Annotated bibliography on satellite and deep space communications
Narrow bandwidth speech communication processing system for lunar and interplanetary, missions and characteristics of onboard noise sources
Shallow water tow channel used to study two dimensional compressible wake of supersonic decelerator
Transfer of aerospace technology to nonaerospace problems -NASA project
Remote sensing techniques are being used in Minnesota to study: (1) forest disease detection and control; (2) water quality indicators; (3) forest vegetation classification and management; (4) detection of saline soils in the Red River Valley; (5) corn defoliation; and (6) alfalfa crop productivity. Results of progress, and plans for future work in these areas, are discussed.
Results are presented of a cold-flow and hot-fire experimental study of the mixing and atomization characteristics of injector elements incorporating noncircular orifices. Both liquid/liquid and gas/liquid element types are discussed. Unlike doublet and triplet elements (circular orifices only) were investigated for the liquid/liquid case while concentric tube elements were investigated for the gas/liquid case. It is concluded that noncircular shape can be employed to significant advantage in injector design for liquid rocket engines.
A six-month systems study of earth resource surveys from satellites was conducted and is reported. SKYLAB S-192 multispectral scanner (MSS) data were used as a baseline to aid in evaluating the characteristics of future systems using satellite MSS sensors. The study took the viewpoint that overall system (sensor and processing) characteristics and parameter values should be determined largely by user requirements for automatic information extraction performance in quasi-operational earth resources surveys, the other major factor being hardware limitations imposed by state-of-the-art technology and cost. The objective was to use actual aircraft and spacecraft MSS data to outline parametrically the trade-offs between user performance requirements and hardware performance and limitations so as to allow subsequent evaluation of compromises which must be made in deciding what system(s) to build.