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Life-Cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-Source Numerical Models (LiAISON) for Prospective Impact Analysis of Novel Technologies

Decarbonizing the industrial sector is a significant challenge in achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy by 2050 and the Paris Agreement, i.e., a global climate change mitigation target of achieving a maximum average temperature change potential of 1.5 Degrees Celsius or less by 2100 with respect to pre-industrial levels. In the United States (US), the industrial sector accounts for 23% of total GHG emissions and is home to a number of hard-to-electrify activities. The chemicals subsector has the single largest subsector emissions profile after direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and leakage from fossil fuel distribution systems. Within the chemicals subsector, many processes depend on hydrogen or ammonia precursors. Decarbonizing these two commodities would contribute significantly to decarbonizing the industrial sector as hydrogen could also be used for low carbon steel production (e.g., hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron) and other industrial applications. Emerging technologies require the application of prospective life cycle assessment (LCA), which can account for technology (foreground) scaling and process improvements via learning-by-doing, among others. In many cases, the future system context (background) in which the technologies are assumed to operate in is equally relevant. Background scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAM) can coherently incorporate potential future dynamics of the energy-climate-human-land system. Further, IAM scenarios are harmonized across socioeconomic and climate change mitigation pathways, which facilitates the comparability of prospective LCAs using different IAMs. We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics. The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE). We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Additionally we compare our results by linking two other prospective models with LiAISON - GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model) and ReEDS (Regional Energy Deployment System) to analyze the effect of changing background scenarios using varying predictions in life cycle analysis.

decarbonizing↗

Recognizing Institutions that Prepare Students for 21st Century Building Careers

Buildings play a significant role in reaching the White House's goal of a net-zero emissions economy by 2050, so it is critical that building professionals are prepared to design and construct high-efficiency, low-carbon buildings powered by renewables. The U.S. Department of Energy's Zero Energy Design Designation recognizes post-secondary academic programs that prepare students for 21st century building careers. ZEDD is a three-year designation, and as of 2023 almost 40 programs of study from more than 25 institutions have been recognized and supported by DOE for their great work. The University of Cincinnati received the ZEDD designation for the Net Zero Energy Design Track in Architectural Engineering Program. Tracks, majors, minors, and certificates are all eligible for ZEDD. In recent interviews with faculty from the University of Cincinnati and Appalachian State University about their experiences with ZEDD, many common topics came up. Both faculty members mentioned their students who graduate with ZEDD on their resume are often the only people in their future design firms who understand and can create net zero energy designs.

buildings↗

Thermal Energy Storage in Commercial Buildings

Space heating and cooling account for as much as 40% of energy used in commercial buildings. Aligning this energy consumption with renewable energy generation through practical and viable energy storage solutions will be pivotal in achieving 100% clean energy by 2050. Integrated on-site renewable energy sources and thermal energy storage systems can provide a significant reduction of carbon emissions and operational costs for the building owner.

buildings energy storage↗

Life-Cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-Source Numerical Models (LiAISON) for Analyzing Emerging Low-Carbon Technologies

Decarbonizing the industrial sector is a significant challenge in achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy by 2050 and the Paris Agreement, i.e., a global climate change mitigation target of achieving a maximum average temperature change potential of 1.5 degrees Celsius or less by 2100 with respect to pre-industrial levels. In the United States (US), the industrial sector accounts for 23% of total GHG emissions and is home to a number of hard-to-electrify activities. The chemicals subsector has the single largest subsector emissions profile after direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and leakage from fossil fuel distribution systems. Within the chemicals subsector, many processes depend on hydrogen or ammonia precursors. Decarbonizing these two commodities would contribute significantly to decarbonizing the industrial sector as hydrogen could also be used for low carbon steel production (e.g., hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron) and other industrial applications. Emerging technologies require the application of prospective life cycle assessment (LCA), which can account for technology (foreground) scaling and process improvements via learning-by-doing, among others. In many cases, the future system context (background) in which the technologies are assumed to operate in is equally relevant. Background scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAM) can coherently incorporate potential future dynamics of the energy-climate-human-land system. Further, IAM scenarios are harmonized across socioeconomic and climate change mitigation pathways, which facilitates the comparability of prospective LCAs using different IAMs. We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics. The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE). We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Under baseline projections (i.e., no decarbonization goals), neither process reaches parity with the incumbent technology across several environmental metrics. Under the decarbonization scenarios, the underlying sectoral shifts result in declining impacts over time, compared to 2020 levels, except for metal depletion levels, which increase. The background shifts postulate a heavily decarbonized economy and energy system, which help technologies reach parity with SMR between 2040-2050 (RCP2.6) and 2030-2040 (RCP1.9) for global warming. Despite declines across several other metrics over time, neither PtH2 technology break even with SMR by 2100 besides for global warming.

decarbonizing↗

Towards a Circular Economy for PET Bottles in the U.S. - 4P Model

The United States generates the most plastic waste of any country. Along with that GHG emissions from the global plastic economy are expected to increase to 15% of the global carbon budget by 2050. It is imperative that plastic recycling is made a reality to reduce both plastic pollution in the environment and GHG emissions. A portfolio of end-of-life strategies must be implemented to minimize environmental impacts and retain valuable plastic material, but it is challenging to compare options that generate products with different utility and lifetime. Plastic use reduction, reuse and recycling are thus increasingly important, but making informed policy and research decisions within this space can be challenging given the diverse range of available solutions. The novel analysis framework, Plastic Parallel Pathways Platform (4P) has been equipped with consequential life cycle assessment, techno-economic analysis, and a plastic circularity indicator to estimate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, circularity, and cost of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) down-cycling to lower-quality resin, closed-loop recycling to food-grade PET bottles, up-cycling to fiber-reinforced plastic (FRP), and conversion to non-plastic products (electricity, oil) on a United States economy-wide basis. Integrating system dynamics into this robust plastics model that already incorporates techno-economics, circularity, and environmental impacts will enable identification of key bottlenecks between manufacturers, waste sorters, and reclaimers that currently prevent rapid decarbonization of the plastics economy. System dynamics (SD) explore the evolution of activities and technologies based on changed macro parameters such as plastic demand and supply, market shifts, and cross-sectoral interactions. This project particularly aims to explore the interplay between, waste collection, plastic waste sorting, recycling, and manufacturing, as well as the effect of plastic bale quality and plastic reuse initiatives on the surrounding process stages. This functionality will facilitate combinatory analysis in which a portfolio of end-of-life pathways are assessed simultaneously, with the exact makeup of that portfolio affected by parameters such as technology scales, resource constraints, and waste mitigation efforts. Integrating SD with the 4P framework enables analyzing the effect of increased revenue and reinvestment into improving process efficiencies, sorting and collection quantities. Through that, market effects of increased recycled resin availability can be studied for the plastics systems model for the US. The results will help identify technical or economic bottlenecks that currently limit efforts to decarbonize the U.S. plastics economy.

carbon↗

Towards a Circular Economy for PET Bottles in the U.S. - 4P Framework

The United States generates the most plastic waste of any country. Along with that GHG emissions from the global plastic economy are expected to increase to 15% of the global carbon budget by 2050. It is imperative that plastic recycling is made a reality to reduce both plastic pollution in the environment and GHG emissions. A portfolio of end-of-life strategies must be implemented to minimize environmental impacts and retain valuable plastic material, but it is challenging to compare options that generate products with different utility and lifetime. Plastic use reduction, reuse and recycling are thus increasingly important, but making informed policy and research decisions within this space can be challenging given the diverse range of available solutions. The novel analysis framework, Plastic Parallel Pathways Platform (4P) has been equipped with consequential life cycle assessment, techno-economic analysis, and a plastic circularity indicator to estimate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, circularity, and cost of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) down-cycling to lower-quality resin, closed-loop recycling to food-grade PET bottles, up-cycling to fiber-reinforced plastic (FRP), and conversion to non-plastic products (electricity, oil) on a United States economy-wide basis. Integrating system dynamics into this robust plastics model that already incorporates techno-economics, circularity, and environmental impacts will enable identification of key bottlenecks between manufacturers, waste sorters, and reclaimers that currently prevent rapid decarbonization of the plastics economy. System dynamics (SD) explore the evolution of activities and technologies based on changed macro parameters such as plastic demand and supply, market shifts, and cross-sectoral interactions. This project particularly aims to explore the interplay between, waste collection, plastic waste sorting, recycling, and manufacturing, as well as the effect of plastic bale quality and plastic reuse initiatives on the surrounding process stages. This functionality will facilitate combinatory analysis in which a portfolio of end-of-life pathways are assessed simultaneously, with the exact makeup of that portfolio affected by parameters such as technology scales, resource constraints, and waste mitigation efforts. Integrating SD with the 4P framework enables analyzing the effect of increased revenue and reinvestment into improving process efficiencies, sorting and collection quantities. Through that, market effects of increased recycled resin availability can be studied for the plastics systems model for the US. The results will help identify technical or economic bottlenecks that currently limit efforts to decarbonize the U.S. plastics economy.

circular economy↗

Intentional and Responsible Energy Transitions: Integrating Design Choices in the Pursuit of Carbon-Neutral Futures

The transitions of energy systems to carbon neutrality are among is one of the most ambitious, complex, uncertain, significant, and transformative projects in human history. They will therefore demand extraordinarily thoughtful, informed, and careful leadership. In recent years, this project has reached an important turning point, with widespread agreement to decarbonize energy systems by 2050. We argue that the next step is to engage leaders in doing the work necessary to achieve that goal. Specifically, we argue that regional leaders, across sectors, should build collaborative initiatives to intentionally and responsibly design and advance regional energy transitions. These transitions will entail navigating uncertain and unknown terrain, requiring diverse organizations and communities to work together to chart and construct potential pathways, assess their implications, and collectively work to make progress. To address these challenges, we recommend adopting region-first, anticipatory, justice-oriented approaches. In such approachesthis process, regions can collaboratively identify, deliberate, design, and navigate toward endpoints along complex and shifting pathways that recognize that design will matter. Efuture energy systems will deeply shape and be shaped by the futures of both societies and economies. Transitions will therefore need to be inclusive, to provide broad public input into both how to proceed with transitions and the goals that guide their design.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Managing Increased Electric Vehicle Shares on Decarbonized Bulk Power Systems

Transportation electrification and power sector decarbonization - the convergence of these two trends present a complex planning problem requiring realistic, region-specific modeling and analysis to ensure that both can happen rapidly and cost effectively. This project, funded through the U.S. Department of Energy's Vehicle Technologies Office, models the evolution of the U.S. bulk power system (through 2050) in response to large-scale EV charging across all on-road vehicle segments. We will assess the opportunity and value of demand-side flexibility (i.e., "smart" charging) for reducing energy costs, increasing renewable generation shares, and managing future EV loads on the bulk power system. Overall, this study aims to provide an improved understanding of least-cost solutions for managing EV load growth on the grid and will make high-resolution EV load data sets publicly available for further analysis.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

Circular Economy for Photovoltaics in Service of Energy Transition

The challenge of energy transition is immediate and immense; current projections target 75 TW of photovoltaics (PV) capacity by 2050. While any transition to renewable energy technology is preferable to the current fossil-based system, it is ideal to improve the sustainability of PV to minimize negative environmental and social impacts. Circular economy (CE) has been proposed as a method to improve the sustainability of PV, especially for emerging materials like perovskites. CE is a set of actions, principles, and systems which aim to design out waste and keep products and materials in use, to reduce environmental impacts and enable sustainable development. At the most basic level, CE is "reduce, reuse, recycle", the R-actions, in ranked order. CE of a PV technology can be metricized in a variety of ways, such as the Material Circularity Indicator (Smith and Jones, Ellen MacArthur Foundation, 2019) or recycling rates. Unfortunately, standard CE metrics have several shortcomings for measuring renewable energy technologies in the context of deployment for energy transition (Figge 2018, Saidani 2019): 1) Only measure mass flows; 2) De-prioritization of the use phase in favor of mass circularity when scoring; and 3) Tight focus on a single product scale The use phase and energy flows of PV are key to energy transition, and therefore need to be quantified. Additionally, correlating product-scale to system-scale is necessary for quantifying the environmental impacts of energy transition. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) can address some of these concerns, but also focuses on a single product scale and has trouble capturing the dynamics of system-scale energy transition, such as the interaction of module lifetime with manufacturing demands for energy transition deployment schedules. Therefore, we developed an open-source Python-based system dynamics model to quantify the mass, energy and carbon impacts of CE R-actions for PV technologies in the energy transition; PV in the CE (PV ICE) (Ovaitt & Mirletz 2021). The tool captures supply chains from material extraction through end of life, incorporating 5 circular end of life pathways. PV ICE takes in any evolving bill of materials, module properties and deployment schedule to support researchers and decision makers with data-backed insights. In this work, we quantify and compare proposed CE sustainable PV module designs and lifecycle management strategies, spanning currently commercialized technologies, government and industry technology targets, and several low Technology Readiness Level (TRL) emerging PV technologies, including perovskites. Our analyses capture the projected evolutions of lifetime, efficiency and material circularity of these PV technologies, as well as their material supply chains. Our analyses emphasize the importance of examining a suite of metrics to identify priorities and tradeoffs, and inform design or lifecycle management decisions holistically. Previous analyses have demonstrated the central importance of PV module lifetime to support energy transition while minimizing impacts. High levels of material circularity (>90%) enable minimizing lifecycle wastes, can reduce virgin material demands if paired with improving efficiency, but demonstrate tradeoffs in energy return on investment. In the fervor of new material and technology development, it is important to remember that CE is not the end goal; decarbonization and energy transition are the end goal. CE should be used in service to improve the sustainability of PV, and R-actions evaluated for their usefulness and efficacy to this end.

carbon↗

A Path to Navigating the Storm: Load Forecasting and Increasing Resilience in Puerto Rico

Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (PR100) provided a comprehensive analysis of pathways for Puerto Rico to achieve its goal of 100% renewable energy by 2050, based on extensive stakeholder input. The study illuminates immediate and longer-term investments needed to achieve reliability while pursuing Puerto Rico's energy goals and addressing critical energy needs. Expected benefits of these investments include improvements in safety, security, health, and economic opportunity.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Paths Forward: Approaches to Achieve Plug and Process Load Efficiency and Control in Commercial Buildings: Preprint

To accomplish net-zero carbon in the built environment by 2050, we must equitably decarbonize commercial buildings, which includes reducing plug and process loads (PPLs). PPLs are plug-in or hardwired electric and gas loads that are not directly associated with major building end uses like lighting and heating, ventilating, and air conditioning. PPLs account for a growing portion of U.S. commercial building energy consumption. Although commercial building PPL strategies and technologies are available today, they have not been adopted at a level sufficient to achieve significant savings and load flexibility across the building stock. In our "Pathways to Plug and Process Load Efficiency and Control" study, we investigated why these technologies and strategies have not seen widespread adoption and identified five behavior and technology pathways to increase PPL reduction in commercial buildings. In this paper, we expand beyond identifying the pathways and discuss approaches for achieving them. We discuss the importance of collecting and sharing data and case studies on PPL energy consumption and savings from control technology implementation, including code-required measures, for increasing adoption. Centralizing case studies and data, engaging industry organizations, and promoting awareness of PPL efficiency benefits to relevant groups are also key approaches. Additionally, funding, incentives, and rebate programs play important roles in driving PPL efficiency and control adoption. Finally, we discuss integrating PPL efficiency into broader company goals, such as environmental, social and governance (ESG) strategies and green building certifications, to further drive adoption.

adoption pathways↗

Computational Approaches for Clean Energy Materials

Currently, 80% of the global final energy consumption occurs in form of fuels and only 20% as electricity. On the other hand, renewable energy additions come almost exclusively in the form of electricity (dominantly photovoltaics and wind). Thus, a successful energy transition will require enormous growth in renewables, sufficient to convert excess electricity into fuels, as well as the development of non-electricity based solar fuel technologies. As much as photovoltaic capacities have grown over the past 20 years, it is far from clear that current technologies and materials are up to the task to grow from here by yet another factor 100 until 2050. Therefore, sustained research efforts on emerging inorganic semiconductors for solar electricity and fuels are essential for facing the double challenge of climate change and energy security. Computational materials science can make important contributions, guiding and supporting research activities through both materials search and discovery and through detailed studies that help to develop a mechanistic understanding of materials performance and bottlenecks. This presentation will highlight three recent computational projects with relevance for photovoltaics and solar fuels (1) Defect graph neural networks (dGNN) for materials discovery in solar thermochemical hydrogen (STCH) [1]. The dGNN approach facilitates broad and fast materials screening for defect properties. (2) Modeling highly off-stoichiometric systems by evaluating the free energy of defect interaction [2]. This approach allows quantitative prediction of H2 production in complex STCH oxides. (3) First-principles atomic structure prediction for interfaces [3]. This work showed how an atomically thin CdCl2 interlayer phase enables in principle ideal electron transport across the incommensurate SnO2/CdTe interface. [1] M.D. Witman, A. Goyal, T. Ogitsu, A.H. McDaniel, S. Lany, Nat. Comput. Sci. (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43588-023-00495-2. [2] A. Goyal, M.D. Sanders, R.P. O'Hayre, S. Lany, PRX Energy 3, 013008 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1103/PRXEnergy.3.013008. [3] A. Sharan, M. Nardone, D. Krasikov, N. Singh, S. Lany, Appl. Phys. Rev. 9, 041411 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0104008.

density functional theory↗

Catching Rays: How Bifacial_Radiance Sheds Light on the Future of Solar PV

The challenge of energy transition is immediate and immense, with current projections targeting 75 TW of photovoltaics (PV) capacity globally by 2050. Alongside the rapid deployment is the "solar-coaster" ride the PV industry experiences with evolving technologies and novel installation methods. In 2016, NREL developed bifacial_radiance, a python open-source modeling tool for bifacial PV. This tool is a wrapper of the raytracing engine Radiance, which you all know better than us at this workshop. Bifacial_radiance integrates the many characteristics of common PV systems to model irradiance on both the front and rear sides of bifacial PV technology - a technology that now represents 75% of utility-scale deployment in the US. Bifacial_radiance has been pivotal for understanding bifacial system performance, shading, and edge effects, and now agrivoltaics research. It has also helped develop simplified models used in PV due diligence tools for optimizing new deployments or evaluating the performance of existing projects. Now, it's the go-to comparison tool for many university, and industry-developed systems modeling tools, and a pivotal tool for further research in photovoltaics. This talk will cover the needs bifacial_radiance addresses as an open-source tool, its development path, and the opportunity for any raytracer to shine light on the solar industry through research and practical application of modeling in regular site installations and novel setups like agrivoltaics and vertical panels at high latitudes (and even the South Pole!).

agrivoltaics↗

State of Innovation 2024: Paving the Way for Low-Carbon Cement and Concrete

Concrete production in the U.S. accounted for nearly 393 million cubic yards in 2023, with $38.8 billion in revenue. While cement, the key ingredient in concrete, is only 10%-15% of concrete's mixture by mass, 8% of total global emissions come from the production of cement. A significant challenge lies in the fact that roughly 51% of concrete emissions stem from the material calcination process of cement production. Stakeholders ranging from cement producers to government agencies are beginning to take measures to significantly reduce concrete emissions by 2050 and are seeking novel technologies from the startup community. Strategies to lower carbon emissions include reducing quantities of cement in concrete formulas; optimizing digital and automated production; lower temperature processing; carbon capture, utilization, and durable storage; and other cost-saving approaches to energy and material efficiencies. New materials based on carbon mineralization and novel cement chemistries hold the potential to reach net-zero or even carbon-negative concrete production; however, there is presently no readily available substitute that can replicate concrete's unique properties and versatility at the volume demanded by construction worldwide. The nature of concrete's raw materials, diverse applications, and scale of demand means that complete decarbonization will rely on a combination of innovative production methods and novel cement chemistries. Low-carbon solutions will need to compete economically with traditional concrete to become viable in a high-volume commodity market, although consumer demand and regulation will play important roles. Despite these challenges, this analysis reveals that venture capital (VC) investments in low-carbon concrete reflect a growing awareness of the decarbonized cement market opportunity. Between 2022 and 2023 emerging low-carbon technologies garnered more than $700 million in VC investments, representing a growing share of investment in the built environment. An investment gap appears after Series A for technology solutions, demonstrating the sector's potential, as well as the need for additional performance assurance and technology incubation.

cement↗

Life-Cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-Source Numerical Models (LiAISON) for Analyzing Emerging Low-Carbon Technologies

Decarbonizing the industrial sector is a significant challenge in achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy by 2050 and the Paris Agreement, i.e., a global climate change mitigation target of achieving a maximum average temperature change potential of 1.5 degrees C or less by 2100 with respect to pre-industrial levels. In the United States (US), the industrial sector accounts for 23% of total GHG emissions and is home to a number of hard-to-electrify activities. The chemicals subsector has the single largest subsector emissions profile after direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and leakage from fossil fuel distribution systems. Within the chemicals subsector, many processes depend on hydrogen or ammonia precursors. Decarbonizing these two commodities would contribute significantly to decarbonizing the industrial sector as hydrogen could also be used for low carbon steel production (e.g., hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron) and other industrial applications. Emerging technologies require the application of prospective life cycle assessment (LCA), which can account for technology (foreground) scaling and process improvements via learning-by-doing, among others. In many cases, the future system context (background) in which the technologies are assumed to operate in is equally relevant. Background scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAM) can coherently incorporate potential future dynamics of the energy-climate-human-land system. Further, IAM scenarios are harmonized across socioeconomic and climate change mitigation pathways, which facilitates the comparability of prospective LCAs using different IAMs. We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE). We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Under baseline projections (i.e., no decarbonization goals), neither process reaches parity with the incumbent technology across several environmental metrics. Under the decarbonization scenarios, the underlying sectoral shifts result in declining impacts over time, compared to 2020 levels, except for metal depletion levels, which increase. The background shifts postulate a heavily decarbonized economy and energy system, which help technologies reach parity with SMR between 2040-2050 (RCP2.6) and 2030-2040 (RCP1.9) for global warming. Despite declines across several other metrics over time, neither PtH2 technology break even with SMR by 2100 besides for global warming.

decarbonizing↗

The Best of Both Worlds: Combined Thermal and Battery Storage for Widespread Building Decarbonization

To meet 2050 decarbonization targets, widespread building electrification is a critical complement to clean power generation. Behind-the-meter storage (BTMS) (e.g., battery electric energy storage [EES] and thermal energy storage [TES]) integrated with buildings or building end uses to store and supply energy at optimal times can minimize burdens associated with operation, planning, and upgrades to the electrical grid sometimes triggered by building electrification. Such BTMS systems can serve the dual purpose of providing enhanced resilience at the building and grid level, and support the deployment of renewable generation needed for wide-scale decarbonization. While TES can cost-effectively shed and shift thermal loads, it cannot generally backup or shift non-thermal building end uses. EES, by contrast, is more expensive, but applicable to all end uses (i.e., thermal and electrical loads). Combined together, these storage systems can be traded off against one another to perform optimally in meeting demand flexibility, decarbonization goals, and energy resilience of the buildings at a lower total system cost. This paper proposes a framework to define BTMS benefits, provides four illustrative electrification scenarios using TES and EES, and discusses the combined TES/EES benefits with building energy modeling results. The paper also highlights potential barriers to adoption of BTMS and a path forward.

buildings↗

Hydrogen and its Vital Role in a Clean Energy Future

Large-scale, low -cost hydrogen production can enable an economically competitive, secure, and environmentally beneficial future energy system across multiple sectors. Furthermore, clean hydrogen can address specific sectors that are hard to decarbonize (e.g., heavy-duty trucking, load-following electricity, iron, steel, and cement) and can help the U.S. meet the net zero carbon goal by 2050. To achieve this goal, tens of millions of metric tons of clean, reliable, and affordable hydrogen will be needed annually1. In 2021, the Hydrogen Energy Earthshot was launched, and its goal is to reduce the cost of clean hydrogen to $1 per $1 kilogram in 1 decade (1 1 1) 2. One very promising pathway for large-scale hydrogen production is water splitting. Water splitting technologies range from commercial technologies such as electrolyzers to approaches that are at a much earlier stage of development, such as photoelectrochemical (PEC) and thermochemical (TCH) processes. All these water splitting pathways offer diverse benefits in energy storage, grid services, and cross-sector emissions reductions while taking advantage of the diverse domestic resources. However, critical materials-, component- and system-level challenges must be addressed to improve efficiency and durability and reduce cost. To address these barriers and move these promising and high impact technologies forward, the HydroGEN Advanced Water Splitting Materials (AWSM) and the H2 from the Next-generation of Electrolyzers of Water (H2NEW) consortia were formed and supported by the Department of Energy (DOE) EERE Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office (HFTO). HydroGEN (https://www.energy.gov/eere/h2awsm/) consortium, established in 2016, is an Energy Materials Network (EMN) that aims to accelerate the materials R&D of low technology readiness level (TRL) advanced water splitting (AWS) technologies. The consortium comprises five core national laboratories and focuses on four early-stage AWS pathways: alkaline exchange membrane (AEM) electrolysis, proton conducting solid oxide electrolysis (p-SOEC), photoelectrochemical, and thermochemical water splitting. Liquid alkaline and PEM electrolyzers are already commercial and significant advancements in oxygen conducting solid oxide electrolysis cells (o-SOECs) have been realized. Yet, these systems are still too expensive and not sufficiently durable for wide-scale commercialization. To enable high-volume manufacturing of affordable, durable, efficient electrolyzers, H2NEW (https://h2new.energy.gov/), another multi-lab consortium, was established in 2020. This comprehensive, concerted effort is focused on overcoming barriers related to components and materials integration and scale-up to achieve performance, durability, with an initial focus to achieve $2/kg H2 by 2026.

AEM↗

Wind Turbine Maintenance Costs: Assessing the Potential of Gear Oil Improvements

Wind turbine operations & maintenance (O&M) costs constitute a sizable portion of total energy cost for wind power. There are many components in a utility-scale wind turbine that need to be lubricated with either oil or grease. This study uses gearbox oil as an example and assesses how lubricant technology improvements may impact wind turbine power production and levelized cost of energy. Using the modeling tools (i.e., WOMBAT, reV, and SAM) developed at National Renewable Energy Laboratory and lubrication oil technology scenarios defined based on inputs provided by ExxonMobil and industry stakeholders, we quantify the potential for increasing energy production and reducing maintenance costs across the current and future U.S. fleet of wind turbines as a result of improvements in lubrication technologies. The modeled improvements reduce the median levelized cost of energy by 1-2% across the U.S. fleet. Cumulative saving from gear oil technology improvements in 2050 for U.S. fleet is estimated to be approximately $6 billion. Extending the lubricant replacement interval has a larger impact on total cost and energy production than reducing lubricant cost.

costs↗