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At least 667 records · Page 37

Characterization of partially observed epidemics through Bayesian inference: application to COVID-19

We demonstrate a Bayesian method for the "real-time'" characterization and forecasting of partially observed COVID-19 epidemic. Characterization is the estimation of infection spread parameters using daily counts of symptomatic patients.The method is designed to help guide medical resource allocation in the early epoch of the outbreak. The estimation problem is posed as one of Bayesian inference and solved using a Markov chain Monte Carlo technique. The data used in this study was sourced before the arrival of the second wave of infection in July 2020. The proposed modeling approach, when applied at the country level, generally provides accurate forecasts at the regional, state and country level. The epidemiological model detected the flattening of the curve in California, after public health measures were instituted.The method also detected different disease dynamics when applied to specific region of New Mexico

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Method to account for natural fracture induced elastic anisotropy in geomechanical characterization of shale gas reservoirs

Shale has been usually recognized as a transverse isotropic (TI) medium in conventional geomechanical log interpretation due to its laminated nature. However, when natural fractures exist in the shale rock, additional elastic anisotropy is introduced, converting laminated Shale to an orthorhombic (OB) medium. Previous studies illustrate that neglecting the natural fracture induced anisotropy in shale geomechanical log interpretation could lead to inaccurate evaluations of elastic moduli and in-situ stresses. In this paper, a new method is developed to account for the natural fracture induced anisotropy in geomechanical log interpretation based upon the TI acoustic model developed by the author and a characterization technique of elastic wave anisotropy (Sayers, 1991). The new OB model incorporates the four acoustic log data inputs and five modeling constraints in a nonlinear optimization algorithm to solve for the nine independent stiffness coefficients of an OB rock, and further to solve for the geomechanical properties and in-situ stress profiles in an OB formation. The new method was validated with a Marcellus Gas Shale field case. Both the new OB model and the conventional TI model were applied to interpret the minimum horizontal stress profile for the same formation. By comparing the results, the OB model is more robust than the TI from two aspects. First, the average stress magnitude predicted by the OB model is closer to the one measured by the Diagnostic Fracture Injection Test (DFIT). Second, the OB model predicts a more obvious stress barrier between the lower Marcellus and upper Onondaga Limestone than the TI model does. Finally, the predicted stress barrier is consistent with the observation of the microseismic events of a horizontal well drilled and completed nearby, which reveals that no hydraulic fracture propagates downward through the bottom boundary of Marcellus Shale into the underlying Onondaga Limestone.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Machine Learning Predicts the Timing and Shear Stress Evolution of Lab Earthquakes Using Active Seismic Monitoring of Fault Zone Processes

Abstract Machine learning (ML) techniques have become increasingly important in seismology and earthquake science. Lab‐based studies have used acoustic emission data to predict time‐to‐failure and stress state, and in a few cases, the same approach has been used for field data. However, the underlying physical mechanisms that allow lab earthquake prediction and seismic forecasting remain poorly resolved. Here, we address this knowledge gap by coupling active‐source seismic data, which probe asperity‐scale processes, with ML methods. We show that elastic waves passing through the lab fault zone contain information that can predict the full spectrum of labquakes from slow slip instabilities to highly aperiodic events. The ML methods utilize systematic changes in P‐wave amplitude and velocity to accurately predict the timing and shear stress during labquakes. The ML predictions improve in accuracy closer to fault failure, demonstrating that the predictive power of the ultrasonic signals improves as the fault approaches failure. Our results demonstrate that the relationship between the ultrasonic parameters and fault slip rate, and in turn, the systematically evolving real area of contact and asperity stiffness allow the gradient boosting algorithm to “learn” about the state of the fault and its proximity to failure. Broadly, our results demonstrate the utility of physics‐informed ML in forecasting the imminence of fault slip at the laboratory scale, which may have important implications for earthquake mechanics in nature.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Sound speed measurements in shock-compressed cemented Tungsten carbides at pressures up to 100 GPa

To gain insights into thermodynamic states attained during shock compression of cemented tungsten carbide with 3.7 wt.% cobalt binder, we present results of longitudinal sound (release wave) speed measurements and their analysis at peak stresses up to 100 GPa (volumetric compression ratio ~ 15%). The sound speeds are determined using front-surface impact and release-wave overtake plate impact experimental configurations using laser interferometry. The measured sound speed data along with estimates for bulk sound speeds obtained using the fourth-order Birch-Murnaghan EoS and thermodynamics are used to determine the longitudinal moduli and shear moduli of shocked tungsten carbide at the various peak compression states attained in the experiments. Here, the longitudinal sound speeds were found to increase linearly with volume compression ratio from 6.97 ± 0.010 km/s at ambient conditions to 8.26 ± 0.156 km/s at a volume compression ratio of ~ 15%. The corresponding longitudinal elastic moduli also increase nearly linearly with the volume compression ratio but remain consistently lower than their theoretical predictions based on continuum models with no damage. Also, the sensitivity of shear moduli to pressure, as predicted by the Steinberg-Guinan model, is reduced substantially and the shear moduli of cemented WC with 3.7 wt.% Co remains nearly constant at ~ 310 GPa at the various peak compression stress states investigated in the present study.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Learning effective stochastic differential equations from microscopic simulations: Linking stochastic numerics to deep learning

We identify effective stochastic differential equations (SDEs) for coarse observables of fine-grained particle- or agent-based simulations; these SDEs then provide useful coarse surrogate models of the fine scale dynamics. We approximate the drift and diffusivity functions in these effective SDEs through neural networks, which can be thought of as effective stochastic ResNets. The loss function is inspired by, and embodies, the structure of established stochastic numerical integrators (here, Euler–Maruyama and Milstein); our approximations can thus benefit from backward error analysis of these underlying numerical schemes. They also lend themselves naturally to “physics-informed” gray-box identification when approximate coarse models, such as mean field equations, are available. Existing numerical integration schemes for Langevin-type equations and for stochastic partial differential equations can also be used for training; we demonstrate this on a stochastically forced oscillator and the stochastic wave equation. Our approach does not require long trajectories, works on scattered snapshot data, and is designed to naturally handle different time steps per snapshot. We consider both the case where the coarse collective observables are known in advance, as well as the case where they must be found in a data-driven manner.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Imaginary-time correlation function thermometry: A new, high-accuracy and model-free temperature analysis technique for x-ray Thomson scattering data

The accurate interpretation of experiments with matter at extreme densities and pressures is a notoriously difficult challenge. In a recent work [Dornheim et al., Nat. Commun. 13, 7911 (2022)], we have introduced a formally exact methodology that allows extracting the temperature of arbitrary complex materials without any model assumptions or simulations. Here, we provide a more detailed introduction to this approach and analyze the impact of experimental noise on the extracted temperatures. In particular, we extensively apply our method both to synthetic scattering data and to previous experimental measurements over a broad range of temperatures and wave numbers. We expect that our approach will be of high interest to a gamut of applications, including inertial confinement fusion, laboratory astrophysics, and the compilation of highly accurate equation-of-state databases.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Efficient 3-D velocity model building using joint inline and crossline plane-wave wave-equation migration velocity analyses

SUMMARY Wave-equation migration velocity analysis (WEMVA) is an image-domain inversion method for velocity model building. Automatic plane-wave WEMVA (PWEMVA) calculates the moveouts of plane-wave common-image gathers (CIGs) by searching a best-fitting parabola with semblance analysis and backprojects residual CIG moveouts into wavefield wave paths with a reflection tomographic kernel. However, 3-D PWEMVA is very computationally expensive because 3-D reflection tomographic inversion requires at least five 3-D reverse-time migrations per iteration and stores two types of source wavefields at model boundaries. We develop a joint inline and crossline PWEMVA method for efficient 3-D velocity model building. We alternatively implement the inline and crossline PWEMVAs with a constraint for each other, in which we iteratively construct the 3-D velocity model update through 1-D spline interpolation of 2-D gradients. The inline and crossline joint inversion is practical since PWEMVA only inverts for low-wavenumber velocity perturbations along wave paths, and the method can take less than 1 per cent of the computational cost of full 3-D PWEMVA. To construct unaliased plane waves for our joint inline and crossline PWEMVA, we develop a 3-D data interpolation method in the frequency–wavenumber (FK) domain to recover regularly and randomly missing traces. The method minimizes the misfit on sufficiently localized data subsets with iterative optimal step lengths and a gradient preconditioner that iteratively selects dominant dips along different azimuths. In numerical experiments, we use a 3-D synthetic seismic data set and a land 3-D field seismic data set acquired at the Farnsworth CO2-EOR (enhanced oil recovery) field to demonstrate the efficacy of our velocity model building and data interpolation methods.

Liu, Xuejian↗

Covariant spectator theory of n p scattering: Deuteron form factors

The deuteron form factors are calculated using two model wave functions obtained from the 2007 CST high precision fits to $np$ scattering data. Included in the calculation are a new class of isoscalar $np$ interaction currents which are automatically generated by the nuclear force model used in these fits. If the nuclear model WJC2 is used, a precision fit ($\chi^2$/datum $\eqsim1$) to the Sick Global Analysis (GA) of all $ed$ elastic scattering data can be obtained by adjusting the unknown off-shell nucleon form factors $F_3(Q^2)$ (discussed before) and $F_4(Q^2)$ (introduced in this paper), and predicting the high $Q^2$ behavior of the neutron charge form factor $G_{En}(Q^2)$ well beyond the region where it has been measured directly. Relativistic corrections, isoscalar interaction currents, and off-shell effects are defined, discussed, and their size displayed. A rationale for extending $ed$ elastic scattering measurements to higher $Q^2$ is presented.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Simons Observatory: Constraining inflationary gravitational waves with multitracer B-mode delensing

We introduce and validate a delensing framework for the Simons Observatory (SO), which will be used to improve constraints on inflationary gravitational waves by reducing the lensing noise in measurements of the B modes in CMB polarization. SO will initially observe CMB by using three small aperture telescopes and one large-aperture telescope. While polarization maps from small-aperture telescopes will be used to constrain inflationary gravitational waves, the internal CMB lensing maps used to delens will be reconstructed from data from the large-aperture telescope. Since lensing maps obtained from the SO data will be noise dominated on subdegree scales, the SO lensing framework constructs a template for lensing-induced B modes by combining internal CMB lensing maps with maps of the cosmic infrared background from Planck as well as galaxy density maps from the LSST survey. We construct a likelihood for constraining the tensor-to-scalar ratio r that contains auto and cross spectra between observed B modes and the lensing B-mode template. We test our delensing analysis pipeline on map-based simulations containing survey nonidealities, but that, for this initial exploration, does not include contamination from Galactic and extragalactic foregrounds. We find that the SO survey masking and inhomogeneous and atmospheric noise have very little impact on the delensing performance, and the r constraint becomes σ(r)≈0.0015 which is close to that obtained from the idealized forecasts in the absence of the Galactic foreground and is nearly a factor of 2 tighter than without delensing. We also find that uncertainties in the external large-scale structure tracers used in our multitracer delensing pipeline lead to bias much smaller than the 1σ statistical uncertainties.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Reduced Order Model for Guided Wave Propagation on Gas Pipelines to Enable Real-Time Simulation

Reduced order model for simulation of Guided wave propagation is presented here. The utilization of reduced order models ensures efficient data generation for a variety of parameters where it takes huge computational effort to simulate, crucial for timely monitoring and decision-making. Autoencoder based reduced order models are proposed here, which are trained on simulated data from open-source finite element framework, Firedrake.

Bukka, Sandeep Reddy↗

Between Harmonic Crystal and Glass: Solids with Dimpled Potential-Energy Surfaces Having Multiple Local Energy Minima

Solids with dimpled potential-energy surfaces are ubiquitous in nature and, typically, exhibit structural (elastic or phonon) instabilities. Dimpled potentials are not harmonic; thus, the conventional quasiharmonic approximation at finite temperatures fails to describe anharmonic vibrations in such solids. At sufficiently high temperatures, their crystal structure is stabilized by entropy; in this phase, a diffraction pattern of a periodic crystal is combined with vibrational properties of a phonon glass. As temperature is lowered, the solid undergoes a symmetry-breaking transition and transforms into a lower-symmetry phase with lower lattice entropy. Here, we identify specific features in the potential-energy surface that lead to such polymorphic behavior; we establish reliable estimates for the relative energies and temperatures associated with the anharmonic vibrations and the solid–solid symmetry-breaking phase transitions. We show that computational phonon methods can be applied to address anharmonic vibrations in a polymorphic solid at fixed temperature. To illustrate the ubiquity of this class of materials, we present a range of examples (elemental metals, a shape-memory alloy, and a layered charge-density-wave system); we show that our theoretical predictions compare well with known experimental data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Photoproduction of the b 1 (1235) Meson off the proton at E gamma = 6-12 GeV

The GlueX Experiment at Jefferson Lab directs a linearly polarized photon beam on a liquid hydrogen target surrounded by an almost hermetic detector. The experiment aims to study the meson spectrum in the light-quark sector and search for exotic spin-parity states predicted by lattice QCD calculations. The lightest exotic candidate is the π 1 meson, which is predicted to decay dominantly to b 1 π. In this thesis, we present efforts to characterize the ωπ 0 decay channel of the b 1 meson as precursor to an analysis of the sought-after π 1 exotic state. We present an introduction to the physics involved and an overview of the detector subsystems with a focus on the Barrel Calorimeter gain monitoring system, as part of the service work expected by the GlueX Collaboration. We discuss the data analysis method used and present two frameworks, for angular moments and partial waves analyses. Details of the simulation used to calculate the detector acceptance. A proof of concept partial wave analysis is presented along with experimental angular moments as first step to a full analysis of the angular distribution Our partial wave analysis indicates that both S- and D-waves are needed, in qualitative agreement with theoretical expectations. The cross-section of the omega π 0 channel is extracted to be of the scale of 1 μb in agreement with previous measurements. The differential cross-section indicates the presence of two production processes with p 1 = -5:24 ± 0:04 for 0:25 < -t < 0:95 GeV 2 ~c 2 and p 2 = -1:24 ± 0:05 for 0:95 < -t < 2:0 GeV 2 ~c 2 , which does not agree with results from previous experiments. The s-channel helicity conservation and helicity amplitudes of the b 1 meson are presented as additional experimental observables. Our results confirm that the b1 photoproduction process does not conserve s-channel helicity though they do not align with previous measurements. The helicity amplitude of the omega are extracted to be |F 1 | 2 = 0:3037 ± 0:0003 which does not agree with the expected value of a b 1 decay or results from a previous experiment. Future steps in all these analyses will be continued by a new graduate student in the group, culminating in a publication.

Foda, Ahmed↗

Reduced Order Model for Guided Wave Propagation on Gas Pipelines to Enable Real-Time Simulation

Reduced order model for simulation of Guided wave propagation is presented here. The utilization of reduced order models ensures efficient data generation for a variety of parameters where it takes huge computational effort to simulate, crucial for timely monitoring and decision-making. Autoencoder based reduced order models are proposed here, which are trained on simulated data from open-source finite element framework, Firedrake.

Bukka, Sandeep Reddy↗

BASS XXXII: Studying the Nuclear Millimeter-wave Continuum Emission of AGNs with ALMA at Scales ≲100–200 pc

To understand the origin of nuclear (≲100 pc) millimeter-wave (mm-wave) continuum emission in active galactic nuclei (AGNs), we systematically analyzed subarcsecond resolution Band-6 (211–275 GHz) Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array data of 98 nearby AGNs (z < 0.05) from the 70 month Swift/BAT catalog. The sample, almost unbiased for obscured systems, provides the largest number of AGNs to date with high mm-wave spatial resolution sampling (~1–200 pc), and spans broad ranges of 14–150 keV luminosity {$40\lt \mathrm{log}[{L}_{14-150}/(\mathrm{erg}\,{{\rm{s}}}^{-1})]\lt 45$}, black hole mass $[5\lt \mathrm{log}({M}_{\mathrm{BH}}/{M}_{\odot })\lt 10$], and Eddington ratio ($-4\lt \mathrm{log}{\lambda }_{\mathrm{Edd}}\lt 2$). We find a significant correlation between 1.3 mm (230 GHz) and 14–150 keV luminosities. Its scatter is ≈0.36 dex, and the mm-wave emission may serve as a good proxy of the AGN luminosity, free of dust extinction up to N H ~ 10 26 cm –2 . While the mm-wave emission could be self-absorbed synchrotron radiation around the X-ray corona according to past works, we also discuss different possible origins of the mm-wave emission: AGN-related dust emission, outflow-driven shocks, and a small-scale (<200 pc) jet. The dust emission is unlikely to be dominant, as the mm-wave slope is generally flatter than expected. Also, due to no increase in the mm-wave luminosity with the Eddington ratio, a radiation-driven outflow model is possibly not the common mechanism. Furthermore, we find independence of the mm-wave luminosity on indicators of the inclination angle from the polar axis of the nuclear structure, which is inconsistent with a jet model whose luminosity depends only on the angle.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

An Intelligent Adaptable Monitoring Package. Final Report

The “Intelligent Adaptable Monitoring Package” project was a four-year effort that demonstrated the feasibility of integrated sensing packages at tidal and wave energy sites. Such integration is generally required by the breadth of sensors required to understand environmental effects at marine energy sites and the operational difficulty of deploying, maintaining, and recovering such sensors. Over the course of the project, the Adaptable Monitoring Package (AMP) was deployed in multiple settings, each corresponding to a project budget period: - Budget Period 1: Demonstration of cabled deployment at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s Marine Science Laboratory. The deployment highlighted AMP hardware endurance over a 4-month deployment in a tidally-dominated environment and laid the groundwork for machine learning algorithms to detect and classify targets present in active sonar data. - Budget Period 2: Demonstration of an autonomous deployment at PacWave South off the coast of Newport, Oregon. The deployment highlighted the stability of AMP hardware and software, with the autonomous package collecting data on a duty cycle over a 1.5-month deployment. - Budget Period 3: Demonstration of an autonomous deployment powered by a wave energy converter at the U.S. Navy’s Wave Energy Test Site. The deployment highlighted the potential of wave energy to power ocean observatories and led to the development of machine learning algorithms to detect and classify targets in optical camera data. In aggregate, this project’s greatest success was demonstrating the AMP’s flexibility in a range of deployment scenarios. Each budget period represented a “first of a kind” demonstration of integrated instrumentation – cabled AMP, autonomous AMP, wave-energy powered AMP – and each deployment helped to identify and set goals for the next. Further, despite the exploratory nature of these deployments, each one achieved high system up-time and proved that flexible integration of multiple sensors in a single package represents a viable strategy for marine energy environmental monitoring. The key lessons learned from the project are: - Without continuous power, either from a shore cable or in situ source, many of the benefits of integration are lost (If continuous power is not available, the ability to detect rare events is lost, as is the ability to minimize the risk of behavioral changes through adaptive sensing. However, even on a duty cycle, there is still value in being able to acquire synchronous data from multiple sensors.); and - Observations from a moving platform present substantially greater data processing challenges than those from stationary platforms. Finally, these deployments also demonstrate an important truth: successful integration alone does not guarantee that relevant data are collected. To grow the knowledge base about environmental interactions with marine energy converters, integrated systems, like the AMP, need to include the right sensor mix and connect the data pipelines to effective processing algorithms. These deployments establish a strong foundation for future collaborations with the environmental research community: not only to understand the environmental effects of marine energy, but also to improve our general ability to study life in the sea.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

HERO WEC V1.0 - WEC-Sim Model (July 2024)

**This submission supersedes submission MHKDR-483** This submission file contains the files that are needed to simulate NREL's HERO WEC (hydraulic and electric reverse osmosis wave energy converter). This requires the user to have already installed WEC-Sim. In addition to the standard toolboxes that are required to run WEC-Sim the user will also need the Simscape Fluids and Simscape Driveline packages. The zip file (HERO_V1_WECSim_2024.zip) contains the following: - HERO_HPTO_2024.slx: Simulink-based WEC Sim model of the first gen (V1.0) Hydraulic PTO (power take-off) that was designed for the HERO WEC. This model has been updated since submission #483 based on in-laboratory experimental results. - wecSimInputFile.m: Input file needed to run the model - userDefinedFunctionsMCR.m: MCR (multi condition run) script that is needed if a use wants to simulate multiple wave conditions. - geometry (folder): Includes the geometry file that is needed for visualization - hydroData (folder): Includes the required WAMIT data to run WEC-Sim -HydVisualization.mlx: Visualization script to plot simulation results (not needed to run)

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Atmospheric condition identification in multivariate data through a metric for total variation

Identification of atmospheric conditions within a multivariable atmospheric data set is a necessary step in the validation of emerging and existing high-fidelity models used to simulate wind plant flows and operation.Atmospheric conditions relevant for wind energy research include stationary conditions, given the need for well-converged statistics for model validation, as well as conditions observed less frequently, such as extreme atmospheric events, which are used in wind turbine and wind plant design.Aggregation of observations without regard to covariance between time series discounts the dynamical nature of the atmosphere and is not sufficiently representative of atmospheric conditions.Identification and characterization of continuous time periods with atmospheric conditions that have a high value for analysis or simulation set the stage for more advanced model validation and the development of real-time control and operational strategies.The current work explores a single metric for variation in a multivariate data sample that quantifies variability within each channel as well as covariance between channels.The total variation is used to identify conditions of interest that conform to desired objective functions, such as stationary conditions, ramps or waves of wind speed, and changes in wind direction.Total variation is somewhat sensitive to the presence of outliers in the input data, and the method is best complemented by quality-control procedures to ensure reliable results.The direct detection and classification of events or conditions of interest within atmospheric data sets is vital to developing our understanding of wind plant response and to the formulation of forecasting and control models.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Drifting Acoustic Measurements around C-Power's SeaRay WEC

The repository contains underwater noise measurements and associated metadata collected around C-Power's SeaRay wave energy converter on July 15, 2024 and July 16, 2024 while it was deployed at the U.S. Navy's Wave Energy Test Site (WETS) in Kaneohe, HI. Measurements were obtained using Drifting Acoustic Instrumentation SYstems (DAISYs). DAISYs consist of a surface expression connected to a hydrophone recording package by a tether. Both elements are instrumented to provide metadata (e.g., position, orientation, and depth). Information about how to build DAISYs is available at https://www.pmec.us/research-projects/daisy. The repository's primary content is a compressed archive (.zip format), containing multiple MATLAB binary data files (.mat format). The structure of each file is included in the repository as a Word document (Data Description MHK-DR.docx). Each file contains time series information for a single DAISY deployment (file naming convention: WETS_DAISY_[Drift #].mat) consisting of processed hydrophone data and associated metadata. During these measurements, C-Power's SeaRay was located at approximately 21.48112 N, 157.74451 W.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗