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NASA NTRS1971

Vhf/uhf stellar calibration error analysis.

Results of a statistical error analysis performed to determine the degree of uncertainty encountered when calibrating steerable vhf/uhf receiving antennas with the stellar calibration method. The analysis considers the propagation of precision error indices. It is shown that an antenna gain calibration by the stellar method has a one-sigma (1 sigma) uncertainty of plus or minus 0.65 dB at 1440 MHz (L-band), and plus or minus 0.8 dB (1 sigma) at 136 MHz (vhf). Somewhat increased precision can be achieved by monitoring the antenna gain-to-noise temperature ratio at a station; a worst-case uncertainty of plus or minus 0.4 dB (1 sigma) can be realized at both L-band and vhf. Finally, field test measurements of antenna gain, obtained at 136 MHz in the NASA space tracking and data acquisition network, demonstrate an uncertainty of plus or minus 1.0 dB or less, which effectively confirms the analytical result.

Taylor, R. E.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Automated segmentation of porous thermal spray material CT scans with predictive uncertainty estimation

Abstract Thermal sprayed metal coatings are used in many industrial applications, and characterizing the structure and performance of these materials is vital to understanding their behavior in the field. X-ray computed tomography (CT) enables volumetric, nondestructive imaging of these materials, but precise segmentation of this grayscale image data into discrete material phases is necessary to calculate quantities of interest related to material structure. In this work, we present a methodology to automate the CT segmentation process as well as quantify uncertainty in segmentations via deep learning. Neural networks (NNs) have been shown to excel at segmentation tasks; however, memory constraints, class imbalance, and lack of sufficient training data often prohibit their deployment in high resolution volumetric domains. Our 3D convolutional NN implementation mitigates these challenges and accurately segments full resolution CT scans of thermal sprayed materials with maps of uncertainty that conservatively bound the predicted geometry. These bounds are propagated through calculations of material properties such as porosity that may provide an understanding of anticipated behavior in the field.

Martinez, Carianne↗

DOE OSTI2025

Deep learning forecasts the spatiotemporal evolution of fluid-induced microearthquakes

Microearthquakes generated by subsurface fluid injection record the evolving stress state and permeability of reservoirs. Forecasting their spatiotemporal evolution is therefore critical for applications such as enhanced geothermal systems, carbon dioxide sequestration and other geoengineering applications. Here we propose a transformer neural network model that ingests hydraulic stimulation history and prior microearthquake observations to forecast four key quantities: cumulative microearthquake count, cumulative logarithmic seismic moment, and the 50th- and 95th-percentile extents of the microearthquake cloud. Applied to the EGS Collab Experiment 1 dataset, the model achieves R2 > 0.98 for the 1-s forecast horizon and R2 > 0.88 for the 15-s forecast horizon across all targets, and supplies uncertainty estimates through a learned standard deviation term. These accurate, uncertainty-quantified forecasts enable real-time inference of fracture propagation and permeability evolution, demonstrating the strong potential of deep-learning approaches to improve seismic-risk assessment and guide mitigation strategies in future fluid-injection operations.

Chung, Jaehong↗

DOE OSTI2020

Automated Segmentation of Porous Thermal Spray Material CT Scans with Geometric Uncertainty Estimation

Thermal sprayed metal coatings are used in many industrial applications, and characterizing the structure and performance of these materials is vital to understanding their behavior in the field. X-ray Computed Tomography (CT) machines enable volumetric, nondestructive imaging of these materials, but precise segmentation of this grayscale image data into discrete material phases is necessary to calculate quantities of interest related to material structure. In this work, we present a methodology to automate the CT segmentation process as well as quantify uncertainty in segmentations via deep learning. Neural networks (NNs) are shown to accurately segment full resolution CT scans of thermal sprayed materials and provide maps of uncertainty that conservatively bound the predicted geometry. These bounds are propagated through calculations of material properties such as porosity that may provide an understanding of anticipated behavior in the field.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2003

Stochastic Control Synthesis of Systems with Structured Uncertainty

This paper presents a study on the design of robust controllers by using random variables to model structured uncertainty for both SISO and MIMO feedback systems. Once the parameter uncertainty is prescribed with probability density functions, its effects are propagated through the analysis leading to stochastic metrics for the system's output. Control designs that aim for satisfactory performances while guaranteeing robust closed loop stability are attained by solving constrained non-linear optimization problems in the frequency domain. This approach permits not only to quantify the probability of having unstable and unfavorable responses for a particular control design but also to search for controls while favoring the values of the parameters with higher chance of occurrence. In this manner, robust optimality is achieved while the characteristic conservatism of conventional robust control methods is eliminated. Examples that admit closed form expressions for the probabilistic metrics of the output are used to elucidate the nature of the problem at hand and validate the proposed formulations.

Padula, Sharon L.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Dissertation Defense Computational Fluid Dynamics Uncertainty Analysis for Payload Fairing Spacecraft Environmental Control Systems

Spacecraft thermal protection systems are at risk of being damaged due to airflow produced from Environmental Control Systems. There are inherent uncertainties and errors associated with using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict the airflow field around a spacecraft from the Environmental Control System. This paper describes an approach to quantify the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict airflow speeds around an encapsulated spacecraft without the use of test data. Quantifying the uncertainty in analytical predictions is imperative to the success of any simulation-based product. The method could provide an alternative to traditional "validation by test only" mentality. This method could be extended to other disciplines and has potential to provide uncertainty for any numerical simulation, thus lowering the cost of performing these verifications while increasing the confidence in those predictions. Spacecraft requirements can include a maximum airflow speed to protect delicate instruments during ground processing. Computational Fluid Dynamics can be used to verify these requirements; however, the model must be validated by test data. This research includes the following three objectives and methods. Objective one is develop, model, and perform a Computational Fluid Dynamics analysis of three (3) generic, non-proprietary, environmental control systems and spacecraft configurations. Several commercially available and open source solvers have the capability to model the turbulent, highly three-dimensional, incompressible flow regime. The proposed method uses FLUENT, STARCCM+, and OPENFOAM. Objective two is to perform an uncertainty analysis of the Computational Fluid Dynamics model using the methodology found in "Comprehensive Approach to Verification and Validation of Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations". This method requires three separate grids and solutions, which quantify the error bars around Computational Fluid Dynamics predictions. The method accounts for all uncertainty terms from both numerical and input variables. Objective three is to compile a table of uncertainty parameters that could be used to estimate the error in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model of the Environmental Control System /spacecraft system. Previous studies have looked at the uncertainty in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model for a single output variable at a single point, for example the re-attachment length of a backward facing step. For the flow regime being analyzed (turbulent, three-dimensional, incompressible), the error at a single point can propagate into the solution both via flow physics and numerical methods. Calculating the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to accurately predict airflow speeds around encapsulated spacecraft in is imperative to the success of future missions.

CFD↗

NASA NTRS2014

Dissertation Defense: Computational Fluid Dynamics Uncertainty Analysis for Payload Fairing Spacecraft Environmental Control Systems

Spacecraft thermal protection systems are at risk of being damaged due to airflow produced from Environmental Control Systems. There are inherent uncertainties and errors associated with using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict the airflow field around a spacecraft from the Environmental Control System. This paper describes an approach to quantify the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict airflow speeds around an encapsulated spacecraft without the use of test data. Quantifying the uncertainty in analytical predictions is imperative to the success of any simulation-based product. The method could provide an alternative to traditional validation by test only mentality. This method could be extended to other disciplines and has potential to provide uncertainty for any numerical simulation, thus lowering the cost of performing these verifications while increasing the confidence in those predictions.Spacecraft requirements can include a maximum airflow speed to protect delicate instruments during ground processing. Computational Fluid Dynamics can be used to verify these requirements; however, the model must be validated by test data. This research includes the following three objectives and methods. Objective one is develop, model, and perform a Computational Fluid Dynamics analysis of three (3) generic, non-proprietary, environmental control systems and spacecraft configurations. Several commercially available and open source solvers have the capability to model the turbulent, highly three-dimensional, incompressible flow regime. The proposed method uses FLUENT, STARCCM+, and OPENFOAM. Objective two is to perform an uncertainty analysis of the Computational Fluid Dynamics model using the methodology found in Comprehensive Approach to Verification and Validation of Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations. This method requires three separate grids and solutions, which quantify the error bars around Computational Fluid Dynamics predictions. The method accounts for all uncertainty terms from both numerical and input variables. Objective three is to compile a table of uncertainty parameters that could be used to estimate the error in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model of the Environmental Control System spacecraft system.Previous studies have looked at the uncertainty in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model for a single output variable at a single point, for example the re-attachment length of a backward facing step. For the flow regime being analyzed (turbulent, three-dimensional, incompressible), the error at a single point can propagate into the solution both via flow physics and numerical methods. Calculating the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to accurately predict airflow speeds around encapsulated spacecraft in is imperative to the success of future missions.

Fluid Dynamics↗

NASA NTRS2014

GCR Environmental Models I: Sensitivity Analysis for GCR Environments

Accurate galactic cosmic ray (GCR) models are required to assess crew exposure during long-duration missions to the Moon or Mars. Many of these models have been developed and compared to available measurements, with uncertainty estimates usually stated to be less than 15%. However, when the models are evaluated over a common epoch and propagated through to effective dose, relative differences exceeding 50% are observed. This indicates that the metrics used to communicate GCR model uncertainty can be better tied to exposure quantities of interest for shielding applications. This is the first of three papers focused on addressing this need. In this work, the focus is on quantifying the extent to which each GCR ion and energy group, prior to entering any shielding material or body tissue, contributes to effective dose behind shielding. Results can be used to more accurately calibrate model-free parameters and provide a mechanism for refocusing validation efforts on measurements taken over important energy regions. Results can also be used as references to guide future nuclear cross-section measurements and radiobiology experiments. It is found that GCR with Z>2 and boundary energies below 500 MeV/n induce less than 5% of the total effective dose behind shielding. This finding is important given that most of the GCR models are developed and validated against Advanced Composition Explorer/Cosmic Ray Isotope Spectrometer (ACE/CRIS) measurements taken below 500 MeV/n. It is therefore possible for two models to very accurately reproduce the ACE/CRIS data while inducing very different effective dose values behind shielding.

Slaba, Tony C.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Space Radiation Cancer, Circulatory Disease and CNS Risks for Near Earth Asteroid and Mars Missions: Uncertainty Estimates for Never-Smokers

The uncertainties in estimating the health risks from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE) are a major limitation to the length of space missions and the evaluation of potential risk mitigation approaches. NASA limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure induced cancer death (REID), and protects against uncertainties in risks projections using an assessment of 95% confidence intervals after propagating the error from all model factors (environment and organ exposure, risk coefficients, dose-rate modifiers, and quality factors). Because there are potentially significant late mortality risks from diseases of the circulatory system and central nervous system (CNS) which are less well defined than cancer risks, the cancer REID limit is not necessarily conservative. In this report, we discuss estimates of lifetime risks from space radiation and new estimates of model uncertainties are described. The key updates to the NASA risk projection model are: 1) Revised values for low LET risk coefficients for tissue specific cancer incidence, with incidence rates transported to an average U.S. population to estimate the probability of Risk of Exposure Induced Cancer (REIC) and REID. 2) An analysis of smoking attributable cancer risks for never-smokers that shows significantly reduced lung cancer risk as well as overall cancer risks from radiation compared to risk estimated for the average U.S. population. 3) Derivation of track structure based quality functions depends on particle fluence, charge number, Z and kinetic energy, E. 4) The assignment of a smaller maximum in quality function for leukemia than for solid cancers. 5) The use of the ICRP tissue weights is shown to over-estimate cancer risks from SPEs by a factor of 2 or more. Summing cancer risks for each tissue is recommended as a more accurate approach to estimate SPE cancer risks. 6) Additional considerations on circulatory and CNS disease risks. Our analysis shows that an individual s history of smoking exposure has a larger impact on GCR risk estimates than amounts of radiation shielding or age at exposure (amongst adults). Risks for never-smokers compared to the average U.S. population are estimated to be reduced between 30% and 60% dependent on model assumptions. Lung cancer is the major contributor to the reduction for never-smokers, with additional contributions from circulatory diseases and cancers of the stomach, liver, bladder, oral cavity and esophagus, and leukemia. The relative contribution of CNS risks to the overall space radiation detriment is potentially increased for never-smokers such as most astronauts. Problems in estimating risks for former smokers and the influence of second-hand smoke are discussed. Compared to the LET approximation, the new track structure derived radiation quality functions lead to a reduced risk for relativistic energy particles and increased risks for intermediate energy particles. Revised estimates for the number of safe days in space at solar minimum for heavy shielding conditions are described for never-smokers and the average U.S. population. Results show that missions to near Earth asteroids (NEA) or Mars violate NASA's radiation safety standards with the current levels of uncertainties. Greater improvements in risk estimates for never-smokers are possible, and would be dependent on improved understanding of risk transfer models, and elucidating the role of space radiation on the various stages of disease formation (e.g. initiation, promotion, and progression).

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Impact of fission yield covariance matrices on decay heat uncertainty quantification with the DARWIN2 package

Although fission yields are strongly correlated, correlations between them are usually not taken into account when performing decay heat uncertainty calculations with the CEA DARWIN2 package due to the lack of reference covariance matrices associated to the JEFF-3.1.1 evaluation. However, covariance matrices for {sup 235}U and {sup 239}Pu thermal fission yields have been produced recently by the subgroup 37 of OECD/NEA Working Party on International Nuclear Data Evaluation Cooperation (WPEC). The study presented in this paper evaluates the effect of those covariances on the decay heat uncertainty calculation, both on fission burst experiments and on integral decay heat measurements that are part of the DARWIN2 experimental validation database. Although some differences are observed, partly due to the variety of models used to produce the matrices, the propagation of fission yield covariances always leads to a reduction of the decay heat uncertainty for cooling time above 10 seconds, indicating that not taking them into account is a conservative hypothesis from a safety point of view. Nevertheless, the strong impact of those covariances on the decay heat uncertainty also highlights the need of documented and consistent fission yield uncertainties and correlation data. On top of that, all the covariance matrices used for this study represent the correlation between the physical model parameters, but none of them includes the experimental correlations. An evaluation of the experimental correlations would also be of strong interest for decay heat uncertainty calculations. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS1985

Measurements of Fe and Ar fragmentation cross sections

Measurements are reported of the yields of individual isotopes of Cr to Co(Z = 24 to 27) resulting from the fragmentation of Fe-56, and the isotopes of Mg to K(Z = 12 to 19) resulting from the fragmentation of Ar-40. Recent advances in the resolution and collecting power of cosmic ray instrumentation, have led to dramatic improvements in the precision of cosmic ray composition measurements, both elemental and isotopic. The interpretation of these measurements is presently limited by uncertainties in the fragmentation cross-sections needed to correct for nuclear interactions with the interstellar gas. Cosmic ray propagation codes now rely mainly on semi-empirical cross-section formulae developed by Silberberg and Tsao (S&T), which have a typical uncertainty of approximately 25%. Relative isotope yields from the fragmentation of approximately 380 MeV/nucleon Fe-56 e and approximately 210 MeV/nucleon Ar-40 r in CH2 targets, observed during the calibration of two cosmic ray spectrometers at the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory Bevalac are reported. These are compared with calculated yeilds based on the S&T cross-section formulae.

Lau, K. H.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Robust Feedback Control of Flow Induced Structural Radiation of Sound

A significant component of the interior noise of aircraft and automobiles is a result of turbulent boundary layer excitation of the vehicular structure. In this work, active robust feedback control of the noise due to this non-predictable excitation is investigated. Both an analytical model and experimental investigations are used to determine the characteristics of the flow induced structural sound radiation problem. The problem is shown to be broadband in nature with large system uncertainties associated with the various operating conditions. Furthermore the delay associated with sound propagation is shown to restrict the use of microphone feedback. The state of the art control methodologies, IL synthesis and adaptive feedback control, are evaluated and shown to have limited success for solving this problem. A robust frequency domain controller design methodology is developed for the problem of sound radiated from turbulent flow driven plates. The control design methodology uses frequency domain sequential loop shaping techniques. System uncertainty, sound pressure level reduction performance, and actuator constraints are included in the design process. Using this design method, phase lag was added using non-minimum phase zeros such that the beneficial plant dynamics could be used. This general control approach has application to lightly damped vibration and sound radiation problems where there are high bandwidth control objectives requiring a low controller DC gain and controller order.

Heatwole, Craig M.↗

NASA NTRS1983

The effect of cross-section uncertainties on the derivation of source abundances from cosmic-ray composition observations

It is pointed out that the derivation of source abundances from the composition observed near the earth requires that the secondary contribution to the observed nuclidic abundances be calculated from a model of cosmic-ray propagation. A crucial element in such a calculation is the choice of nuclear fragmentation cross sections. Uncertainties in these cross sections give rise to uncertainties in the derived source abundances. It is shown here that the uncertainties in fragmentation cross sections can, in certain important cases, contribute significantly to the uncertainties in cosmic ray source abundances deduced from the observed composition. For this reason, it is essential that reliable estimates of the effect of cross section uncertainties be made when interpreting the source composition deduced from cosmic ray observations. In addition, formulas are presented which can be used to obtain such estimates with a minimum of computational effort.

Wiedenbeck, M. E.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Viscosity Measurements at High Pressures: A Critical Appraisal of Corrections to Stokes' Law

Abstract Fluids and melts in planetary interiors significantly influence geodynamic processes from volcanism to global‐scale differentiation. The roles of these geofluids depend on their viscosities ( η ). Constraining geofluid η at relevant pressures and temperatures relies on laboratory‐based measurements and is most widely done using Stokes' Law viscometry with falling spheres. Yet small sample chambers required by high‐pressure experiments introduce significant drag on the spheres. Several correction schemes are available for Stokes' Law but there is no consensus on the best scheme(s) for high‐pressure experiments. We completed high‐pressure experiments to test the effects of (a) the relative size of the sphere diameter to the chamber diameter and (b) the top and bottom of the chamber, that is, the ends, on the sphere velocities. We examined the influence of current correction schemes on the estimated viscosity using Monte Carlo simulations. We also compared previous viscometry work on various geofluids in different experimental setups/geometries. We find the common schemes for Stokes' Law produce statistically distinct values of η . When inertia of the sphere is negligible, the most appropriate scheme may be the Faxén correction for the chamber walls. Correction for drag due to the chamber ends depends on the precision in the sinking distance and may be ineffective with decreasing sphere size. Combining the wall and end corrections may overcorrect η . We also suggest the uncertainty in η is best captured by the correction rather than propagated errors from experimental parameters. We develop an overlying view of Stokes' Law viscometry at high pressures.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

DOE OSTI2023

Inverse modeling of circular lattices via orbit response measurements in the presence of degeneracy

The number and location of beam position monitors (BPMs) and steerers with respect to the quadrupoles in a circular lattice can lead to degeneracy in the context of fitting linear optics and extracting lattice information from measured closed orbits. Furthermore, the measurement uncertainties due to the imperfection of BPMs and steerers can be propagated by the fitting process in ways that prohibit the successful extraction of discrepancies between lattice elements in the real machine and their description in the corresponding model. We systematically studied the influence of the placement of BPMs and steerers on the reconstruction of linear optics and corresponding lattice information. The derivative of orbit response coefficients with respect to the quadrupole strengths, the Jacobian, is derived as an analytical formula. This analytical version of the Jacobian is used to further derive the theoretical limitations of fitting linear optics from closed orbits in terms of the placement of BPMs and steerers. It is further demonstrated that when evaluating the Jacobian during the fitting procedure, the analytical version can be used in place of the conventional finite-difference computation. This allows for greatly improved efficiency when computing the Jacobian during each iteration of the fitting procedure. The approach is tested with large-scale simulations and the findings are verified by measurement data taken on SIS18 synchrotron at GSI Helmholtz Centre for Heavy Ion Research. The presented methods are of general nature and can be applied to other accelerator lattices as well. The fitting procedure by using the analytical Jacobian is tested in conjunction with various methods for mitigating quasidegeneracy and the results agree with those obtained by using the conventional Jacobian via finite-difference approximation.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

NASA NTRS1992

Asteroid orbital error analysis: Theory and application

We present a rigorous Bayesian theory for asteroid orbital error estimation in which the probability density of the orbital elements is derived from the noise statistics of the observations. For Gaussian noise in a linearized approximation the probability density is also Gaussian, and the errors of the orbital elements at a given epoch are fully described by the covariance matrix. The law of error propagation can then be applied to calculate past and future positional uncertainty ellipsoids (Cappellari et al. 1976, Yeomans et al. 1987, Whipple et al. 1991). To our knowledge, this is the first time a Bayesian approach has been formulated for orbital element estimation. In contrast to the classical Fisherian school of statistics, the Bayesian school allows a priori information to be formally present in the final estimation. However, Bayesian estimation does give the same results as Fisherian estimation when no priori information is assumed (Lehtinen 1988, and reference therein).

Muinonen, K.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Solar and Heliospheric Data Requirements: Going Further Than L1

Current operational space weather forecasting relies on solar wind observations made by the ACE spacecraft located at the L1 point providing 30-40 minutes warning time. Some use is also made of SOHO and STEREO solar imaging that potentially can give multiple days of warning time. However, our understanding of the propagation and evolution of solar wind transients is still limited resulting in a typical timing uncertainty of approximately 10 hours. In order to improve this critical understanding, a number of NASA missions are being planned. Specifically the Solar Probe Plus and Solar Orbiter missions will investigate the inner Heliospheric evolution of coronal mass ejections and the acceleration and propagation of solar energetic particles. In addition, a number of multi-spacecraft concepts have been studied that have the potential to significantly improve the accuracy of long-term space weather forecasts.

Szabo, A.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Measurement of the Hubble constant with high-energy neutrinos

Measuring distances in the Universe is one of the hardest problems in physics and astronomy. Almost every distance probe relies on photons, whose propagation across cosmic distances introduces extinction, absorption, scattering, and radiative-transfer effects. Neutrinos suffer none of these and propagate unattenuated through dust, intergalactic medium, and dense source environments alike. We introduce a new distance-ladder method for measuring the Hubble constant $H_0$ using high-energy astrophysical neutrinos from point sources as standardizable candles, and report its first observational realization. Using 12 X-ray-selected Seyfert galaxies for which IceCube reports significant per-source neutrino excesses in its 14-year public point-source release, we exploit the disk-corona correlation $L_ν= κ\, L_X^β$ between neutrino and X-ray luminosities to construct a neutrino distance ladder anchored by non-redshift distances to NGC 1068 (Cepheid + TRGB). We find $H_0 = 49^{+40}_{-30}\,\mathrm{km\,s^{-1}\,Mpc^{-1}}$ and $β= 0.67^{+0.16}_{-0.25}$ (68% credible intervals), with the corona slope disfavoring the calorimetric limit $β= 1$ at ${\sim}2σ$. The result is consistent with existing $H_0$ determinations from Planck and SH0ES within 1$σ$. While the uncertainty on $H_0$ is large, the measurement is free of electromagnetic propagation systematics and demonstrates the viability of neutrinos as a novel cosmographical probe.

Herrera, Gonzalo [MIT, MKI; Harvard U.] (ORCID:000↗