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At least 667 records · Page 37
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1993

Life support technology investment strategies for flight programs: An application of decision analysis

Applied research and technology development (R&TD) is often characterized by uncertainty, risk, and significant delays before tangible returns are obtained. Given the increased awareness of limitations in resources, effective R&TD today needs a method for up-front assessment of competing technologies to help guide technology investment decisions. Such an assessment approach must account for uncertainties in system performance parameters, mission requirements and architectures, and internal and external events influencing a development program. The methodology known as decision analysis has the potential to address these issues. It was evaluated by performing a case study assessment of alternative carbon dioxide removal technologies for NASA"s proposed First Lunar Outpost program. An approach was developed that accounts for the uncertainties in each technology's cost and performance parameters as well as programmatic uncertainties such as mission architecture. Life cycle cost savings relative to a baseline, adjusted for the cost of money, was used as a figure of merit to evaluate each of the alternative carbon dioxide removal technology candidates. The methodology was found to provide a consistent decision-making strategy for the develpoment of new life support technology. The case study results provided insight that was not possible from more traditional analysis approaches.

Schlater, Nelson J.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Prediction of Natural Frequency and Buckling Load Variability due to Uncertainty in Material Properties by Convex Modeling

Composite materials are widely used in various types of engineering structures. To a large extent, the properties of composite materials are dependent on the fabrication process. But even the composite materials manufactured by the same process may demonstrate differences in their elastic properties. For design purposes, one should be aware of the potential variations in load-carrying capacity and dynamic behavior of such structures that can arise due to the uncertainty in elastic moduli. A more realistic analysis of composite structures should be performed with the variations of the elastic moduli being taken into consideration at the same time. The present paper is a generalization of a study where the influence of uncertainty in elastic moduli on the axial buckling load was discussed. Here, we consider another case of buckling, shells under uniform external pressure. In addition, this paper deals with the variability of natural frequencies by use of convex modeling, which is apparently the first study of this kind in the literature. A numerical approach to the uncertainty problem is nonlinear programming, which we apply to solve the same problem to generate a set of comparable numerical data. The results from both methods show good agreement throughout. Thus, the effectiveness of the analytic convex modeling is clearly demonstrated. The bounds of he natural frequency and the buckling load provide the designer with a better view of the vibrational behavior and the actual load carrying capacities possessed by the composite structure.

Li, Y. W.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

CERES Top-of-atmosphere and Surface fluxes in the Arctic: A comparison with ARISE and MOSAiC measurements

Uncertainty in the NASA Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES)-derived irradiances is larger over sea ice than any other surface type and comes from several sources. This presentation summarizes results from comparisons of CERES data with the year-long Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition in the central Arctic and the Arctic Radiation and Icebridge Sea ice Experiment (ARISE). The CERES Synoptic 1degree (SYN1deg) product overestimates the downwelling shortwave flux by 11.40 Wm–2 and underestimates the upwelling shortwave flux by –15.70 Wm–2 and downwelling longwave fluxes by –12.58 Wm–2 at the surface during summer. In addition, large differences are found in the upwelling longwave flux when the surface approaches the melting point (approximately 0C). The large negative bias in upwelling shortwave flux can be attributed in large part to lower surface albedo (–0.15) in satellite footprint relative to surface sensors. The CERES-MOSAiC broadband albedo differences (approximately 20 Wm–2) explain a larger portion of the upwelling shortwave flux difference than the spectral albedo shape differences (approximately 3 Wm–2). The ARISE results indicate the some of these differences in the SW are due to the scene identification and representation of anisotropy in partly cloud scenes. Switching from imager-based to passive microwave-based sea ice data in the CERES inversion process reduces the differences in the grid box average fluxes and in the sea ice partly cloudy scene anisotropy in the instantaneously-matched footprints. Our analysis indicates that calibration and sampling uncertainty limit the ability to place strong constraints (<7%) on CERES TOA fluxes with aircraft measurements. The results indicate that improvements in the surface albedo and cloud data would substantially reduce the uncertainty in the Arctic surface radiation budget derived from CERES data products.

Patrick C Taylor↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

CFD Validation Study of a Hypersonic Cone-Slice-Flap Configuration

Model validation is the process of determining the degree of accuracy between the real world and the model. The result of model validation can be used to either improve the model through calibration or quantify the model-form uncertainty. This work focuses on estimating the model-form uncertainty through an area metric for a hypersonic cone-slice-flap geometry configuration given the uncertainty in both the simulation and experimental data. A procedure that can give an accurate representation of the model-form uncertainty using a small number of high-fidelity runs is outlined. The work also assesses the impact of using different high-fidelity solvers and different turbulence models. The goal of performing this comparison is to provide a quantifiable measurement of the accuracy of each solver and turbulence model for this type of design. A low-fidelity analysis is also performed to get a model-form uncertainty for this type of analysis. The two high-fidelity CFD solvers used here are VULCAN-CFD and FUN3D, and the low-fidelity results comes from Cart3D.The experimental data comes from the 20-inch Mach 6 Tunnel located at NASA Langley Research Center. The work here shows that the models used tend to under-predict the drag and moment aerodynamic coefficients for this type of design leading to a model-form uncertainty estimate which can account for up to an 86% of the total uncertainty in the model predictions.

Laura M White↗
NASA NTRS1977

Entry dynamics of space shuttle orbiter with lateral-directional stability and control uncertainties at supersonic and hypersonic speeds

A six-degree-of-freedom simulation analysis was conducted to examine the effects of the lateral-directional static aerodynamic stability and control uncertainties on the performance of the automatic (no manual inputs) entry-guidance and control systems of the space shuttle orbiter. To establish the acceptable boundaries of the uncertainties, the static aerodynamic characteristics were varied either by applying a multiplier to the aerodynamic parameter or by adding an increment. Control-system modifications were identified that decrease the sensitivity to off-nominal aerodynamics. With these modifications, the acceptable aerodynamic boundaries were determined.

Stone, H. W.↗
NASA NTRS1979

A sensitivity analysis of volcanic aerosol dispersion in the stratosphere

A computer sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the uncertainties involved in the calculation of volcanic aerosol dispersion in the stratosphere using a 2 dimensional model. The Fuego volcanic event of 1974 was used. Aerosol dispersion processes that were included are: transport, sedimentation, gas phase sulfur chemistry, and aerosol growth. Calculated uncertainties are established from variations in the stratospheric aerosol layer decay times at 37 latitude for each dispersion process. Model profiles are also compared with lidar measurements. Results of the computer study are quite sensitive (factor of 2) to the assumed volcanic aerosol source function and the large variations in the parameterized transport between 15 and 20 km at subtropical latitudes. Sedimentation effects are uncertain by up to a factor of 1.5 because of the lack of aerosol size distribution data. The aerosol chemistry and growth, assuming that the stated mechanisms are correct, are essentially complete in several months after the eruption and cannot explain the differences between measured and modeled results.

Butler, C. F.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Integrated analysis and applications

A select overview is provided of ongoing research focusing on the development and verification of integrated structural analysis and optimal design capabilities for advanced aerospace propulsion and power systems. Subjects discussed include the following: (1) Composites - analytical models (composite mechanics), integrated computational methods, and characterization of composite structural response and durability for resin-, metal-, and ceramic-matrix systems; (2) Advanced inelastic analysis - algorithm/numerical methods for more accurate and efficient analysis; (3) Constitutive modeling - theoretical formulation and characterization of thermoviscoplastic material behavior; (4) Computational simulation - engine structures from components to assembly, and up to an entire engine system subjected to simulated test-stand and mission load histories; (5) Probabilistic structural analysis - quantification of the effects of uncertainty in geometry, material, loads, and boundary conditions on structural response for true reliability assessment; and (6) Interdisciplinary optimization - incorporation of mathematical optimization and multidisciplinary analyses to provide streamlined, autonomous optimal design systems.

Hopkins, Dale A.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Use of the Long Duration Exposure Facility's thermal measurement system for the verification of thermal models

The Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) postflight thermal model predicted temperatures were matched to flight temperature data recorded by the Thermal Measurement System (THERM), LDEF experiment P0003. Flight temperatures, recorded at intervals of approximately 112 minutes for the first 390 days of LDEF's 2105 day mission were compared with predictions using the thermal mathematical model (TMM). This model was unverified prior to flight. The postflight analysis has reduced the thermal model uncertainty at the temperature sensor locations from +/- 40 F to +/- 18 F. The improved temperature predictions will be used by the LDEF's principal investigators to calculate improved flight temperatures experienced by 57 experiments located on 86 trays of the facility.

Berrios, William M.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Probabilistic structural analysis for nuclear thermal propulsion

Viewgraphs of probabilistic structural analysis for nuclear thermal propulsion are presented. The objective of the study was to develop a methodology to certify Space Nuclear Propulsion System (SNPS) Nozzle with assured reliability. Topics covered include: advantage of probabilistic structural analysis; space nuclear propulsion system nozzle uncertainties in the random variables; SNPS nozzle natural frequency; and sensitivity of primitive variable uncertainties SNPS nozzle natural frequency and shell stress.

Shah, Ashwin↗
NASA NTRS1993

Probabilistic assessment of composite structures

A methodology and attendant computer code were developed and are used to computationally simulate the uncertain behavior of composite structures. The uncertain behavior includes buckling loads, stress concentration factors, displacements, stress/strain, etc., which are the consequences of the inherent uncertainties (scatter) in the primitive (independent random) variables (constituent, ply, laminate, and structural) that describe the composite structures. The computer code is IPACS (Integrated Probabilistic Assessment of Composite Structures). IPACS can simulate both composite mechanics and composite structural behavior. Application to probabilistic composite mechanics is illustrated by its use to evaluate the uncertainties in the major Poisson's ratio and in laminate stiffness and strength. IPACS' application to probabilistic structural analysis is illustrated by its used to evaluate the uncertainties in the buckling of a composite plate, the stress concentration factor in a composite panel, and the vertical displacement and ply stress in a composite aircraft wing segment. IPACS' application to probabilistic design is illustrated by its use to assess the thin composite shell (pipe).

Chamis, C. C.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Observations of aerosol by the HALOE experiment onboard UARS - A preliminary validation

The HALOE experiment measures vertical profiles of aerosol extinction at five infrared wavelengths. Four of these observations are obtained using a combination of gas filter and broadband radiometer measurements in bands of HF, HCl, CH4, and NO centered at wavelengths of 2.45, 3.40, 3.45, and 5.26 microns, respectively. The fifth is obtained using broadband radiometer measurements of CO2 transmission at 2.79 microns. Error analysis shows that the random extinction uncertainties are generally less than 10 percent in the aerosol layer, increasing to over 20 percent at the profile tops. HALOE spectral extinction measurements are shown to be consistent with predicted spectral extinction for stratospheric sulfate aerosol. Profile comparisons between HALOE and independent sources result in generally good agreement in the shape and magnitude of peak extinction and the altitude where the peak extinction occurs. In addition, global aerosol distributions obtained from the data are consistent with expected aerosol morphology. Although the validation is preliminary, the HALOE aerosol data appear to be of excellent quality and to accurately represent optical characteristics and distribution of the aerosols.

Hervig, Mark E.↗
NASA NTRS1993

IPACS (Integrated Probabilistic Assessment of Composite Structures): Code development and applications

A methodology and attendant computer code have been developed and are described to computationally simulate the uncertain behavior of composite structures. The uncertain behavior includes buckling loads, stress concentration factors, displacements, stress/strain etc., which are the consequences of the inherent uncertainties (scatter) in the primitive (independent random) variables (constituent, ply, laminate and structural) that describe the composite structures. The computer code, IPACS (Integrated Probabilistic Assessment of Composite Structures), can handle both composite mechanics and composite structures. Application to probabilistic composite mechanics is illustrated by its uses to evaluate the uncertainties in the major Poisson's ratio and in laminate stiffness and strength. IPACS application to probabilistic structural analysis is illustrated by its use to evaluate the uncertainties in the buckling of a composite plate, in the stress concentration factor in a composite panel and in the vertical displacement and ply stress in a composite aircraft wing segment.

Chamis, C. C.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Asteroid approach covariance analysis for the Clementine mission

The Clementine mission is designed to test Strategic Defense Initiative Organization (SDIO) technology, the Brilliant Pebbles and Brilliant Eyes sensors, by mapping the moon surface and flying by the asteroid Geographos. The capability of two of the instruments available on board the spacecraft, the lidar (laser radar) and the UV/Visible camera is used in the covariance analysis to obtain the spacecraft delivery uncertainties at the asteroid. These uncertainties are due primarily to asteroid ephemeris uncertainties. On board optical navigation reduces the uncertainty in the knowledge of the spacecraft position in the direction perpendicular to the incoming asymptote to a one-sigma value of under 1 km, at the closest approach distance of 100 km. The uncertainty in the knowledge of the encounter time is about 0.1 seconds for a flyby velocity of 10.85 km/s. The magnitude of these uncertainties is due largely to Center Finding Errors (CFE). These systematic errors represent the accuracy expected in locating the center of the asteroid in the optical navigation images, in the absence of a topographic model for the asteroid. The direction of the incoming asymptote cannot be estimated accurately until minutes before the asteroid flyby, and correcting for it would require autonomous navigation. Orbit determination errors dominate over maneuver execution errors, and the final delivery accuracy attained is basically the orbit determination uncertainty before the final maneuver.

Ionasescu, Rodica↗
NASA NTRS1997

Worst-Case Flutter Margins from F/A-18 Aircraft Aeroelastic Data

An approach for computing worst-case flutter margins has been formulated in a robust stability framework. Uncertainty operators are included with a linear model to describe modeling errors and flight variations. The structured singular value, micron, computes a stability margin which directly accounts for these uncertainties. This approach introduces a new method of computing flutter margins and an associated new parameter for describing these margins. The micron margins are robust margins which indicate worst-case stability estimates with respect to the defined uncertainty. Worst-case flutter margins are computed for the F/A-18 SRA using uncertainty sets generated by flight data analysis. The robust margins demonstrate flight conditions for flutter may lie closer to the flight envelope than previously estimated by p-k analysis.

Lind, Rick↗
NASA NTRS1999

Launch Collision Probability

This report analyzes the probability of a launch vehicle colliding with one of the nearly 10,000 tracked objects orbiting the Earth, given that an object on a near-collision course with the launch vehicle has been identified. Knowledge of the probability of collision throughout the launch window can be used to avoid launching at times when the probability of collision is unacceptably high. The analysis in this report assumes that the positions of the orbiting objects and the launch vehicle can be predicted as a function of time and therefore that any tracked object which comes close to the launch vehicle can be identified. The analysis further assumes that the position uncertainty of the launch vehicle and the approaching space object can be described with position covariance matrices. With these and some additional simplifying assumptions, a closed-form solution is developed using two approaches. The solution shows that the probability of collision is a function of position uncertainties, the size of the two potentially colliding objects, and the nominal separation distance at the point of closest approach. ne impact of the simplifying assumptions on the accuracy of the final result is assessed and the application of the results to the Cassini mission, launched in October 1997, is described. Other factors that affect the probability of collision are also discussed. Finally, the report offers alternative approaches that can be used to evaluate the probability of collision.

Bollenbacher, Gary↗
NASA NTRS2001

ECC Ozonesonde Reliability, Observations, and Comparisons with Satellite Ozone Instruments

Electrochemical Concentration Cell (ECC) ozone instruments depend on the quality of care exercised in their pre-flight preparation. The ozone-measuring project conducted at Goddard Space Flight Center's Wallops Flight Facility uses a number of mechanisms designed to inspect the ECC for anomalies that may interfere with the reception of valid ozone profiles. Complete electronic testing of the instrument, individually and when coupled to its radiosonde has led to exceptional monitoring of ozone for detecting long-term atmospheric changes. A number of factors are considered when preparing an ECC instrument for flight. These basically are specific calibrations of pump efficiency, volumetric flow rate, temperature of the air entering the pump, and background current. The concentration of the potassium iodide solution is also important. Wallops is the only site using a UV photometer (Dasibi) to compare ECC ozone output at various concentrations of ozone that allows adjustment to be made to offsets that may appear in the balloon-borne instrument prior to release. All of the above procedures allow identification of potential problems before release of the ECC instrument. Procedures followed at Wallops also are employed in Brazil, and Ascension Island where NASA has cooperative agreements in place to obtain ozonesondes data. All ECC instruments are prepared 3-4 weeks prior to the day of observation. We will briefly describe the instrumental tests employed. These tests have included simultaneous dual observations to compare the effect of different solution concentrations, comparison of sensors of different manufacturers, and comparisons with surface- and space-based instrumentation such as the Dobson Spectrophotometer and satellites. Vertical profiles of ozone from Arctic, mid-latitudes, and Antarctica will be discussed. Although not unusual, the data reveals ozone structure that correlate well with typical atmospheric temperatures and possibly relative humidity. Finally, vertical ozone distribution, compared with remotely measured ozone from lidar and satellite, will be discussed. Specific comparisons between ECC and HALOE measurements, integrated ECC total ozone overburden with the EP-TOMS and the Dobson, as well as comparisons with lidar are discussed. Results show agreement and some disagreement between the in situ measurements of the ECC and the remote instruments. We postulate reasons for the differences, or biases, which in spite of the excellent ECC quality control during pre-flight preparation and data analysis processes, may be due to uncertainties in both measuring systems.

Schmidlin, F. J.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Aeroelastic Stability and Response of Rotating Structures

A summary of the work performed under NASA grant is presented. More details can be found in the cited references. This grant led to the development of relatively faster aeroelastic analysis methods for predicting flutter and forced response in fans, compressors, and turbines using computational fluid dynamic (CFD) methods. These methods are based on linearized two- and three-dimensional, unsteady, nonlinear aerodynamic equations. During the period of the grant, aeroelastic analysis that includes the effects of uncertainties in the design variables has also been developed.

Keith, Theo G., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Scatter in Carbon/Silicon Carbide (C/SiC) Composites Quantified

Carbon-fiber-reinforced silicon carbide matrix (C/SiC) composites processed by chemical vapor infiltration are candidate materials for aerospace thermal structures. Carbon fibers can retain properties at very high temperatures, but they are known to have poor oxidation resistance in adverse, high-temperature environments. Nevertheless, the combination of CVI-SiC matrix with higher stiffness and oxidation resistance, the interfacial coating, and additional surface-seal coating provides the necessary protection to the carbon fibers, and makes the material viable for high-temperature space applications operating under harsh environments. Furthermore, C/SiC composites, like other ceramic matrix composites (CMCs), exhibit graceful non-catastrophic failure because of various inherent energy dissipating mechanisms. The material exhibits nonlinearity in deformation even at very low stress levels. This is the result of the severe matrix microcracking present in the as processed composite because of large differences between the coefficients of thermal expansion of the fiber and the matrix. Utilization of these advanced composites in next generation space vehicles will require innovative structural configurations, updated materials, and refined analyses. Structural safety issues for these vehicles are in direct competition with performance and cost. One would have to quantify the uncertainties associated with the design using formal probabilistic methods. Specifically four fundamental aspects on which analyses are based-- (1) loading conditions, (2) material behavior, (3) geometrical configurations, and (4) structural connections between the composite components and baseline structure--are stochastic in nature. A direct way to formally account for uncertainties is to develop probabilistic structural analysis methods where all participating variables are described by appropriate probability density functions. The present work, however, focuses on analyzing the stochastic material behavior of these advanced composites using formal probabilistic analysis methods. Often, some of the desirable property characteristics that allow composites to offer advantages over conventional structural materials (like tailoring of composite properties) and the complexity are in fact responsible for their greater statistical variability and the requirements for more characterization tests. Composite properties are anisotropic as well, having different properties in different directions. This means that characterization of a property such as stiffness--which will vary greatly depending on the orientation of the fiber relative to the direction of the testing--must be repeated for several different directions and loading conditions. The fabrication process for composites also introduces statistical variations in properties and geometry. A composite part is produced in a number of steps, each of which introduces statistical variability. The matrix is usually produced from a combination of raw materials; and the fiber, which has its own set of properties, is often coated or surface treated, introducing yet another source of variability.

Murthy, Pappu L. N.↗