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At least 667 records · Page 37

A General Framework for Progressive Data Compression and Retrieval

In scientific simulations, observations, and experiments, the transfer of data to and from disk and across networks has become a major bottleneck for data analysis and visualization. Compression techniques have been employed to tackle this challenge, but traditional lossy methods often demand conservative error tolerances to meet the numerical accuracy requirements of both anticipated and unknown data analysis tasks. Progressive data compression and retrieval has emerged as a promising solution, where each analysis task dictates its own accuracy needs. However, few analysis algorithms inherently support progressive data processing, and adapting compression techniques, file formats, client/server frameworks, and APIs to support progressivity can be challenging. Here, this paper presents a framework that enables progressive-precision data queries for any data compressor or numerical representation. Our strategy hinges on a multi-component representation that successively reduces the error between the original and compressed field, allowing each field in the progressive sequence to be expressed as a partial sum of components. We have implemented this approach with four established scientific data compressors and assessed its effectiveness using real-world data sets from the SDRBench collection. The results show that our framework competes in accuracy with the standalone compressors it is based upon. Additionally, (de)compression time is proportional to the number of components requested by the user. Finally, our framework allows for fully lossless compression using lossy compressors when a sufficient number of components are employed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A preliminary empirical evaluation of virtual reality as an instructional medium for visual-spatial tasks

We explored the training potential of Virtual Reality (VR) technology. Thirty-one adults were trained and tested on spatial skills in a VR. They learned a sequence of button and knob responses on a VR console and performed flawlessly on the same console. Half were trained with a rote strategy; the rest used a meaningful strategy. Response times were equivalent for both groups and decreased significantly over five test trials indicating that learning continued on VR tests. The same subjects practiced navigating through a VR building, which had three floors with four rooms on each floor. The dependent measure was the number of rooms traversed on routes that differed from training routes. Many subjects completed tests in the fewest rooms possible. All subjects learned configurational knowledge according to the criterion of taking paths that were significantly shorter than those predicted by a random walk as determined by a Monte Carlo analysis. The results were discussed as a departure point for empirically testing the training potential of VR technology.

Regian, J. Wesley↗

An application of miniscale experiments on Earth to refine microgravity analysis of adiabatic multiphase flow in space

Adiabatic two-phase flow is of interest to the design of multiphase fluid and thermal management systems for spacecraft. This paper presents original data and unifies existing data for capillary tubes as a step toward assessing existing multiphase flow analysis and engineering software. Comparisons of theory with these data once again confirm the broad accuracy of the theory. Due to the simplicity and low cost of the capillary tube experiments, which were performed on earth, we were able to closely examine for the first time a flow situation that had not previously been examined appreciably by aircraft tests. This is the situation of a slug flow at high quality, near transition to annular flow. Our comparison of software calculations with these data revealed overprediction of pipeline pressure drop by up to a factor of three. In turn, this finding motivated a reexamination of the existing theory, and then development of a new analytical and is in far better agreement with the data. This sequence of discovery illustrates the role of inexpensive miniscale modeling on earth to anticipate microgravity behavior in space and to complete and help define needs for aircraft tests.

Rothe, Paul H.↗

Methanopyrus kandleri: an archaeal methanogen unrelated to all other known methanogens

Analysis of its 16S rRNA sequence shows that the newly discovered hyperthermophilic methanogen, Methanopryus kandleri, is phylogenetically unrelated to any other known methanogen. The organism represents a separate lineage originating near the root of the archaeal tree. Although the 16S rRNA sequence of Mp. kandleri resembles euryarchaeal 16S rRNAs more than it does crenarchaeal, it shows more crenarchaeal signature features than any known euryarchaeal rRNA. Attempts to place it in relation to the root of the archaeal tree show that the Mp. kandleri lineage likely arises from the euryarchaeal branch of the tree. While the existence of so deeply branching a methanogenic lineage brings into question the thesis that methanogenesis evolved from an earlier metabolism similar to that seen in Thermococcus, it at the same time reinforces the notion that the aboriginal [correction of aborginal] archaeon was a thermophile.

NASA Discipline Number 52-30↗

Assessment of Delivery Accuracy in an Operational-Like Environment

In order to enable arrival management concepts and solutions in a Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) environment, ground-based sequencing and scheduling functions were developed to support metering operations in the National Airspace System. These sequencing and scheduling tools are designed to assist air traffic controllers in developing an overall arrival strategy, from enroute down to the terminal area boundary. NASA developed a ground system concept and protoype capability called Terminal Sequencing and Spacing (TSAS) to extend metering operations into the terminal area to the runway. To demonstrate the use of these scheduling and spacing tools in an operational-like environment, the FAA, NASA, and MITRE conducted an Operational Integration Assessment (OIA) of a prototype TSAS system at the FAA's William J. Hughes Technical Center (WJHTC). This paper presents an analysis of the arrival management strategies utilized and delivery accuracy achieved during the OIA. The analysis demonstrates how en route preconditioning, in various forms, and schedule disruptions impact delivery accuracy. As the simulation spanned both enroute and terminal airspace, the use of Ground Interval Management - Spacing (GIM-S) enroute speed advisories was investigated. Delivery accuracy was measured as the difference between the Scheduled Time of Arrival (STA) and the Actual Time of Arrival (ATA). The delivery accuracy was computed across all runs conducted during the OIA, which included deviations from nominal operations which are known to commonly occur in real operations, such as schedule changes and missed approaches. Overall, 83% of all flights were delivered into the terminal airspace within +/- 30 seconds of their STA and 94% of flights were delivered within +/- 60 seconds. The meter fix delivery accuracy standard deviation was found to be between 36 and 55 seconds across all arrival procedures. The data also showed when schedule disruptions were excluded, the percentage of aircraft delivered within +/- 30 seconds was between 85 and 90% across the various arrival procedures at the meter fix. This paper illustrates the ability to meet new delivery accuracy requirements in an operational-like environment using operational systems and NATCA controller participants, while also including common events that might cause disruptions to the schedule and overall system.

Air Traffic Scheduling↗

Analysis of H-alpha flare spectra

Spectrographs of the H-alpha line taken at 15 second intervals from the event of 5 Sept. 1973 were interpreted by comparison with synthetic profiles. A sequence of 27 high resolution H alpha profiles was obtained from the second brightest flare kernel. The profiles were generally self reversed with a maximum peak intensity of 1.16 x continuum and a maximum central intensity of .91 x continuum. The line characteristics such as red and violet peak intensities and positions, center shifts and wing intensities were tabulated. Synthetic H-alpha profiles were generated from a finite layer assuming simple parameteric forms for the source function and velocity field. The velocity chosen always decreased with optical depth and had the same sign. For absorption profiles, bisector shifts were calculated for a variety of velocities. The velocity field and source function were derived as a function of optical depth and time.

Kulander, J. L.↗

Real-time structural motif searching in proteins using an inverted index strategy

Biochemical and biological functions of proteins are the product of both the overall fold of the polypeptide chain, and, typically, structural motifs made up of smaller numbers of amino acids constituting a catalytic center or a binding site that may be remote from one another in amino acid sequence. Detection of such structural motifs can provide valuable insights into the function(s) of previously uncharacterized proteins. Technically, this remains an extremely challenging problem because of the size of the Protein Data Bank (PDB) archive. Existing methods depend on a clustering by sequence similarity and can be computationally slow. We have developed a new approach that uses an inverted index strategy capable of analyzing >170,000 PDB structures with unmatched speed. The efficiency of the inverted index method depends critically on identifying the small number of structures containing the query motif and ignoring most of the structures that are irrelevant. Our approach (implemented at motif.rcsb.org ) enables real-time retrieval and superposition of structural motifs, either extracted from a reference structure or uploaded by the user. Herein, we describe the method and present five case studies that exemplify its efficacy and speed for analyzing 3D structures of both proteins and nucleic acids.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

National Virtual Biotechnology Laboratory: Report on Rapid R&D Solutions to the COVID-19 Crisis

With funding from the CARES Act, the U.S Department of Energy (DOE) established the National Virtual Biotechnology Laboratory (NVBL) in March 2020 to address key challenges associated with the COVID-19 crisis. NVBL brought together the broad scientific and technical expertise and resources of DOE’s 17 national laboratories to help tackle medical supply short ages, discover potential drugs to fight the virus, develop and validate COVID-19 testing methods, model disease spread and impact across the nation, and understand virus transport in buildings and the environment. National laboratory resources leveraged for this effort include a suite of world-leading user facilities broadly available to the research community, such as light and neutron sources, nanoscale science research centers, sequencing and biocharacterization facilities, and high-performance computing facilities. Within months, NVBL teams produced innovations in materials and advanced manufacturing that mitigated shortages in test kits and personal protective equipment (PPE), creating nearly 1,000 new jobs. They used DOE’s high-performance computers and light and neutron sources to identify promising candidates for antibodies and antivirals that universities and drug companies are now evaluating. NVBL researchers also developed new diagnostic targets and sample collection approaches, and supported U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) efforts to establish national guidelines used in administering millions of tests. Researchers used artificial intelligence and high-performance computing to produce near-real-time data analysis to forecast disease transmission, stress on public health infrastructure, and economic impact, which supported decision-makers at the local, state, and national levels. NVBL teams also studied how to control indoor virus movement to minimize uptake and protect human health. NVBL’s accomplishments demonstrate not only the powerful resource represented by DOE’s national laboratories working together to meet national needs, but also the effectiveness of the integrated NVBL framework for rapidly responding to emergencies with research and development (R&D) solutions. As the fight against COVID continues, sustained efforts are needed to confront this pandemic as well as future threats. Examples include: 1) Establishing “supply chains on demand” to meet emergency production needs by leveraging the materials and manufacturing expertise of DOE national laboratories and developing advances in electronics, sensing, robotics, and automation capabilities; 2) Improving the speed and robustness of drug discovery by integrating experimental platforms with DOE’s computational and experimental user facilities, which provide unique resources to support the discovery of high-potential therapeutic agents; 3) Protecting public, environmental, and animal health by developing new testing protocols and instrumentation adaptable to diverse sample types (both physiological and environmental) to quickly detect a wide range of pathogens and monitor other biorisks; 4) Supporting near-real-time data needs of decision-makers at the local, regional, state, and national levels by advancing data curation, analysis, and modeling using artificial intelligence and new data science tools for managing and evaluating large diverse datasets; 5) Harnessing DOE’s expertise in environmental modeling to design rooms and air handling for offices, classrooms, restaurants, and other structures to minimize biorisk transmissions. Going forward, NVBL is poised to apply the unique capabilities and expertise of the national laboratory complex to future national and international emergencies, both natural and engineered. Through this framework, the Office of Science will continue to be an integral component of agency wide efforts to prepare for and respond to biorisks and other crises.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A Neural Network Parametrization of Volumetric Cloud Fraction Profiles Using Satellite Observations and MERRA-2 Reanalysis Meteorological Data

Clouds play a crucial role in regulating the hydrologic cycle and Earth's radiative energy budget, yet they are often poorly represented in global climate models (GCMs). This study applies deep machine learning techniques to develop a physical parameterization of volumetric cloud fraction (VCF), the fraction of a 3-D grid volume occupied by clouds using satellite lidar-radar measurements. The neural network (NN) captures the complicated relationships between observed VCF profiles and collocated meteorological variables from MERRA-2 reanalysis data. Our results show that the NN model, particularly a sequence-to-sequence long short-term memory (LSTM) network with a sixfactor loss function, effectively learns the underlying cloud physical processes. The NN model outperforms MERRA-2 reanalysis in representing low-level clouds in tropical and subtropical regions and low- and middle-level clouds over midlatitude storm-track regions, and also improves VCF histograms. These improvements are reflected in the vertical distributions of zonally, meridionally, and globally averaged VCFs, geographic distributions of low-, middle-, and high-level clouds, and seasonal variations in monthly-mean VCF. Furthermore, the NN predictions effectively capture the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects and other interannual variations. The NN parameterization is further evaluated through a sensitivity analysis, in which a single predictor is perturbed at a time. This reveals that relative humidity (RH) is the dominant factor influencing variations in globally averaged VCF at low and middle altitudes, followed by temperature. At higher altitudes, temperature becomes the primary driver of VCF through its effect on RH. Changes in wind components had minimal impact on globally averaged VCF.

Shan Zeng↗

Contamination Sources Effects Analysis (CSEA) - A Tool to Balance Cost/Schedule While Managing Facility Availability

A CSEA is similar to a Failure Modes Effects Analysis (FMEA). A CSEA tracks risk, deterrence, and occurrence of sources of contamination and their mitigation plans. Documentation is provided spanning mechanical and electrical assembly, precision cleaning, thermal vacuum bake-out, and thermal vacuum testing. These facilities all may play a role in contamination budgeting and reduction ultimately affecting test and flight. With a CSEA, visibility can be given to availability of these facilities, test sequencing and trade-offs. A cross-functional team including specialty engineering, contamination control, electrostatic dissipation, manufacturing, testing, and material engineering participate in an exercise that identifies contaminants and minimizes the complexity of scheduling these facilities considering their volatile schedules. Care can be taken in an efficient manner to insure correct cleaning processes are employed. The result is reduction in cycle time ("schedule hits"), reduced cost due to rework, reduced risk and improved communication and quality while achieving adherence to the Contamination Control Plan.

Wilcox, Margaret↗

Genetic Predictive Factors for Nonsusceptible Phenotypes and Multidrug Resistance in Expanded-Spectrum Cephalosporin-Resistant Uropathogenic Escherichia coli from a Multicenter Cohort: Insights into the Phenotypic and Genetic Basis of Coresistance

Antimicrobial resistance in urinary tract infections (UTIs) is a major public health concern. This study aims to characterize the phenotypic and genetic basis of multidrug resistance (MDR) among expanded-spectrum cephalosporin-resistant (ESCR) uropathogenic Escherichia coli (UPEC) causing UTIs in California patient populations. Between February and October 2019, 577 ESCR UPEC isolates were collected from patients at 6 clinical laboratory sites across California. Lineage and antibiotic resistance genes were determined by analysis of whole-genome sequence data. The lineages ST131, ST1193, ST648, and ST69 were predominant, representing 46%, 5.5%, 4.5%, and 4.5% of the collection, respectively. Overall, 527 (91%) isolates had an expanded-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL) phenotype, with bla CTX-M-15 , bla CTX-M-27 , bla CTX-M-55 , and bla CTX-M-14 being the most prevalent ESBL genes. In the 50 non-ESBL phenotype isolates, 40 (62%) contained bla CMY-2 , which was the predominant plasmid-mediated AmpC (pAmpC) gene. Narrow-spectrum β-lactamases, bla TEM-1B and bla OXA-1 , were also found in 44.9% and 32.1% of isolates, respectively. Among ESCR UPEC isolates, isolates with an ESBL phenotype had a 1.7-times-greater likelihood of being MDR than non-ESBL phenotype isolates (P < 0.001). The cooccurrence of bla CTX-M-15 , bla OXA-1 , and aac(6')-Ib-cr within ESCR UPEC isolates was strongly correlated. Cooccurrence of bla CTX-M-15 , bla OXA-1 , and aac(6')-Ib-cr was associated with an increased risk of nonsusceptibility to piperacillin-tazobactam, cefepime, fluoroquinolones, and amikacin as well as MDR. Multivariate regression revealed the presence of bla CTX-M-55 , bla TEM-1B , and the ST131 genotype as predictors of MDR.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Algorithm for Compressing Time-Series Data

An algorithm based on Chebyshev polynomials effects lossy compression of time-series data or other one-dimensional data streams (e.g., spectral data) that are arranged in blocks for sequential transmission. The algorithm was developed for use in transmitting data from spacecraft scientific instruments to Earth stations. In spite of its lossy nature, the algorithm preserves the information needed for scientific analysis. The algorithm is computationally simple, yet compresses data streams by factors much greater than two. The algorithm is not restricted to spacecraft or scientific uses: it is applicable to time-series data in general. The algorithm can also be applied to general multidimensional data that have been converted to time-series data, a typical example being image data acquired by raster scanning. However, unlike most prior image-data-compression algorithms, this algorithm neither depends on nor exploits the two-dimensional spatial correlations that are generally present in images. In order to understand the essence of this compression algorithm, it is necessary to understand that the net effect of this algorithm and the associated decompression algorithm is to approximate the original stream of data as a sequence of finite series of Chebyshev polynomials. For the purpose of this algorithm, a block of data or interval of time for which a Chebyshev polynomial series is fitted to the original data is denoted a fitting interval. Chebyshev approximation has two properties that make it particularly effective for compressing serial data streams with minimal loss of scientific information: The errors associated with a Chebyshev approximation are nearly uniformly distributed over the fitting interval (this is known in the art as the "equal error property"); and the maximum deviations of the fitted Chebyshev polynomial from the original data have the smallest possible values (this is known in the art as the "min-max property").

Hawkins, S. Edward, III↗

Multi-Sensors Observations of Pre-Earthquake Signals. What We Learned from the Great Tohoku Earthquake?

The lessons learned from the Great Tohoku EQ (Japan, 2011) will affect our future observations and an analysis is the main focus of this presentation. Multi-sensors observations and multidisciplinary research is presented in our study of the phenomena preceding major earthquakes Our approach is based on a systematic analysis of several physical and environmental parameters, which been reported by others in connections with earthquake processes: thermal infrared radiation; temperature; concentration of electrons in the ionosphere; radon/ion activities; and atmospheric temperature/humidity [Ouzounov et al, 2011]. We used the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model, one of several possible paradigms [Pulinets and Ouzounov, 2011] to interpret our observations. We retrospectively analyzed the temporal and spatial variations of three different physical parameters characterizing the state of the atmosphere, ionosphere the ground surface several days before the March 11, 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake Namely: (i) Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) measured at the top of the atmosphere; (ii) Anomalous variations of ionospheric parameters revealed by multi-sensors observations; and (iii) The change in the foreshock sequence (rate, space and time); Our results show that on March 8th, 2011 a rapid increase of emitted infrared radiation was observed and an anomaly developed near the epicenter with largest value occurring on March 11 at 07.30 LT. The GPS/TEC data indicate an increase and variation in electron density reaching a maximum value on March 8. Starting from this day in the lower ionosphere there was also observed an abnormal TEC variation over the epicenter. From March 3 to 11 a large increase in electron concentration was recorded at all four Japanese ground-based ionosondes, which returned to normal after the main earthquake. We use the Japanese GPS network stations and method of Radio Tomography to study the spatiotemporal structure of ionospheric perturbations, and to distinguish ionospheric responses to processes of EQ preparation against the effects of other factors. The 2-D snapshots of the electron density over Japan showed abnormal increase over the maximum stress during the night, a few hours before the main shock. Our results from recording atmospheric and ionospheric conditions during the earthquake indicate the presence of anomalies in the atmosphere and ionospheres occurring consistently over regions of maximum stress near the epicenter. Due to their long duration (hours and days) and spatial appearance (only over the Sendai region) these results do not appear to be caused by meteorological or magnetic activity. They reveal the existence of atmospheric and ionospheric phenomena occurring prior to the earthquake, which indicates new evidence of a distinct coupling between the lithosphere and atmosphere/ionosphere. Similar results have been reported before the catastrophic events in Chile (M8.8, 2010), Italy (M6.3, 2009) and Sumatra (M9.3, 2004).

Ouzonounov, D.↗

A Hybrid AI/ML and Computational Mechanics Based Approach for Time-Series State and Fatigue Life Estimation of Nuclear Reactor Components

Environmental fatigue modeling is a complex problem due to multiple failure modes and their intermixing. The failure modes are function of various underlying causes in addition to the corrosive effect of reactor coolant environment. Some of the major causes are time-dependence of material associated with cyclic loading, load sequence effect associated with random/variable amplitude loading, effect of strain amplitude and rates, effect of varying temperature (along both temporal and spatial directions) and the effect of mean strain and stress. The nonlinear intermixing of failure modes associated with above mentioned causing parameters makes the environmental fatigue modeling is a challenging task. Because of this challenge, fatigue is traditionally being modeled based on experimental data. However, test based empirical approach often requires hundreds of fatigue tests to model the above-mentioned intermixing failure causes even for a single material system. The problem is further exaggerated for reactor component made from multi-material systems such as made from both carbon and stainless-steel base metals and their similar and dissimilar metal welds. With the difficulty of conducting hundreds of fatigue tests to capture the above-mentioned intermixing failure causes, fatigue modeling approaches often depends on empirical models based on limited available test data such as available through ASME code and NUREG 6909. However, these limited test-data-based models may not be enough to accurately predict the life of reactor components. Accurate prediction of life of reactor component would become a necessity, particularly when the license of the reactors to be extended for long-term-operation (LTO) that is for well beyond its original design life of 40 years. The requirement of extending the license of reactor under LTO requires hundreds of fatigue tests to be conducted to understand the mechanism associated with the above-mentioned interdependent failure causes. However, conducting large number of fatigue tests is not a feasibility due to the cost involved. To address this issues Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) with the sponsorship of DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program trying to develop a hybrid predictive modeling approach. This is based on limited experiment-data, Artificial-intelligence (AI) – Machine-Learning (ML) - Deep-Learning (DL) based techniques and Multiphysics-computational-mechanics based modeling tools. The hybrid approach not-only can improve the accuracy of the existing stress analysis and fatigue modeling approach but also can reduce the over-dependency on test-based approach. Towards this goal following are some of the major contributions based on ANL’s FY-20 environmental fatigue modeling activities: 1) A cyclic plasticity material model database for 82/182 dissimilar metal weld, which can be readily shared with US nuclear industry and regulatory agency on request. 2) A well validated analytical modeling methodology to perform cycle-by-cycle stress prediction under both constant amplitude fatigue loading and variable amplitude fatigue loading (with load-sequence effect). 3) An AI/ML/DL based methodology to predict unmeasurable cyclic strain based on other available sensor signals. This type of approach can be used for estimating strain in real reactor components from other sensor readings. 4) An AI/ML based approach to improve the US capability on environmental fatigue testing. This is by improving ANL’s existing environmental fatigue testing capacity to conduct ASME required strain-controlled tests (by controlling strain amplitudes and its rate), while not measuring the strain (due to the difficulty of placing an extensometer in a narrow autoclave in a PWR-water-test system). 5) A simulation and experiment based probabilistic modeling methodology for time-series fatigue state and life estimation of reactor metal such as dissimilar metal weld.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Active Volcanoes of Kamchatka as Suitable Terrestrial Analogs for Future Landing Missions and for Change Detection Analysis on Venus

The next decade will see the return to Venus due to a number of missions which have been recently selected and proposed for launch. The selected missions NASA DAVINCI and VERITAS, Roscosmos Venera-D, and ESA EnVision, along with the proposed missions ISRO Shukrayaan- 1, and CNSA VOICE, will open a new era for the exploration of the Earth’s hellish twin planet. These missions will shed new light on the science questions such as: (a) whether recent volcanic activity is locally constrained, or active volcanism occurs on a global scale; (b) the rate of the present-day volcanic activity; (c) the styles of volcanism on Venus, including possible occurrences of pyroclastic/explosive volcanism; and (d) how does the extreme environment on Venus effect volcanic activity. In preparation for these future missions to Venus, the Analogs for VENus’ GEologically Recent Surfaces (AVENGERS) initiative has the scope to select and analyze a number of active terrestrial volcanoes as suitable analogs for the identification and analysis of active volcanism on Venus. The Roscosmos Venera-D is the only mission, among the currently selected or planned mission, equipped with a lander to analyze the elemental and mineralogical composition of the surface. Therefore, it is crucial to find applicable volcanic areas on Earth to perform operational tests such as surface drilling and in-situ elemental composition analysis. To this regard, we propose the analysis of active volcanoes of the Kamchatka Peninsula, which is in a geodynamic setting (subduction) contrasting to that of the volcanic rises on Venus (hot spot). Thus, Kamchatka may represent a helpful geodynamic endmember to put the expected landing site of the Venera-D mission within the context of the entire variety of volcanic landforms and surface chemistry. The Kamchatka Peninsula is located on the eastern margin of the Eurasian plate, in proximity to the Kuril-Kamchatka subduction zone. The frequent eruptions characterizing the volcanoes of the Kamchatka Peninsula make them a suitable terrestrial analog for the possible detection of ongoing eruptions on Venus by future missions, which can be achieved by comparing a sequence of radar images of the same volcano and its surroundings taken at different times. Moreover, it is possible to collect samples of both unweathered and weathered volcanic deposits, to analyze their near infrared spectra in the laboratory for direct comparison with the spectra to be provided by the future missions to Venus. The chemical analyses of Venusian surface materials from the previous Soviet Venera and Vega missions are consistent with that of tholeiitic basalts. Since the volcanism of the Kamchatka Peninsula is characterized by both basaltic lava flows eruptions and pyroclastic activity, performing operational tests in the Kamchatka Peninsula also offers the unique opportunity to provide us the tools to potentially interpret the diverse output given by both effusive and explosive volcanic products.

Piero D'Incecco↗

Discovery of Activities via Statistical Clustering of Fixation Patterns

Human behavior often consists of a series of distinct activities, each characterized by a unique signature of visual behavior. This is true even in a restricted domain, such as piloting an aircraft, where patterns of visual signatures might represent activities like communicating, navigating, and monitoring. We propose a novel analysis method for gaze-tracking data, to perform blind discovery of these activities based on their behavioral signatures. The method is in some respects similar to recurrence analysis, but here we compare not individual fixations, but groups of fixations aggregated over a fixed time interval. The duration of this interval is a parameter that we will refer to as τ. We assume that the environment has been divided into a set of N different areas-of-interest (AOIs). For a given interval of time of duration τ, we compute the proportion of time spent fixating each AOI, resulting in an N-dimensional vector. These proportions can be converted to counts by multiplying by τ divided by the average fixation duration (another parameter that we fix at 280 milliseconds). We compare different intervals by computing the chi-square statistic. The p-value associated with the statistic is the likelihood of observing the data under the hypothesis that the data in the two intervals were generated by a single process with a single set of probabilities governing the fixation of each AOI. We have investigated the method using a set of 10 synthetic "activities," that sample 4 AOIs. Four of these activities visit 3 of the 4 AOIs, with equal probability; as there are four different ways to leave-one- out, there are four such activities. Similarly, there are six different activities that leave-two-out. Sequences of simulated behavior were generated by running each activity for 40 seconds, in sequence, for a total of 6.7 minutes. The figure to the right shows the matrix of chi-square statistics, using a value of 2.8 seconds for τ, corresponding to 10 fixations. Low values (dark) indicate poor evidence for activity differences, while high values (bright) indicate strong evidence. The dark squares along the main diagonal each correspond to the forty second intervals in which the activity was held constant; the 4x4 block at the lower left corresponds to the four leave-one-out activities, while the 6x6 block in the upper right corresponds to the leave-two-out activities. (The anti-diagonal pattern of white squares indicates those activity pairs that share no AOIs.) The chi-square values can be binarized by choosing a particular significance level; we are interested in grouping bins that represent the same activity, effectively accepting the null hypothesis. Therefore, we may adopt a relatively lax criterion; for example, choosing a p-value of 0.2 means that two behaviors that have only a 1-in-5 chance of being produced by a single activity might nevertheless be clustered together. We have explored several methods to perform clustering on the data and solving for the activity probabilities. Greedy methods begin by selecting the time bin that is similar to the most (or least) other bins, and then forming a cluster from it and all other non-discriminable bins. These methods show mediocre performance, as they do not take into account temporal contiguity. Preliminary results indicate that methods that "grow" clusters in time from seed points perform better.

activity analysis↗

A Sequence of Outbursts from the Transient X-Ray Pulsar GS 0834-430

GS 0834-430, a 12.3 s accretion-powered pulsar, has been observed in seven outbursts with the BATSE large-area detectors on the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory. The first five outbursts observed by BATSE occurred at intervals of about 107 days, while the final two outbursts were separated by about 140 days. The photon energy spectrum, measured by Earth occultation in the 20 100 keV band, can be fitted by a power law with photon index alpha approximately equals -3.7 or by an exponential spectrum with temperature kT approximately equals 15 keV, with some variations within outbursts. The source has a low pulse fraction, less than or equal to 0.15 in the 20-50 keV band. We have observed significant temporal and energy-dependent variations in epoch folded pulse profiles. Because the intrinsic torque effects for this system are at least comparable to orbital effects, pulse timing analysis did not produce a unique orbital solution. However, confidence regions for the orbital elements yielded the following 1 sigma limits: orbital period P(sub orb) = 105.8 +/- 0.4 days and eccentricity 0.10 less than or approximately equals epsilon less than or approximately equals 0.17. GS 0834-430 is most likely a Be/X-ray binary.

Wilson, Colleen A.↗

Evaluating the state-of-the-art in remote volcanic eruption characterization Part I: Raikoke volcano, Kuril Islands

Raikoke, a small, unmonitored volcano in the Kuril Islands, erupted in June 2019. We integrate data from satellites (including Sentinel-2, TROPOMI, MODIS, Himawari-8), the International Monitoring System (IMS) infrasound network, and global lightning detection network (GLD360) with information from local authorities and social media to retrospectively characterize the eruptive sequence and improve understanding of the pre-, syn- and post- eruptive behavior. In this work, we observe six infrasound pulses beginning on 21 June at 17:49:55 UTC as well as the main Plinian phase on 21 June at 22:29 UTC. Each pulse is tracked in space and time using lightning and satellite imagery as the plumes drift eastward. Post-eruption visible satellite imagery shows expansion of the island's surface area, an increase in crater size, and a possibly-linked algal bloom south of the island. We use thermal satellite imagery and plume modeling to estimate plume height at 10–12 km asl and 1.5–2 × 10 6 kg/s mass eruption rate. Remote infrasound data provide insight into syn-eruptive changes in eruption intensity. Our analysis illustrates the value of interdisciplinary analyses of remote data to illuminate eruptive processes. However, our inability to identify deformation, pre-eruptive outgassing, and thermal signals, which may reflect the relatively short duration (~12 h) of the eruption and minimal land area around the volcano and/or the character of closed-system eruptions, highlights current limitations in the application of remote sensing for eruption detection and characterization.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗