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NASA NTRS2007

The ENSO Effect on the Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Global Lightning Activity

The recently reprocessed (1997-2006) OTD/LIS database is used to investigate the global lightning climatology in response to the ENSO cycle. A linear correlation map between lightning anomalies and ENSO (NINO3.4) identifies areas that generally follow patterns similar to precipitation anomalies. We also observed areas where significant lightning/ENSO correlations are found and are not accompanied of significant precipitation/ENSO correlations. An extreme case of the strong decoupling between lightning and precipitation is observed over the Indonesian peninsula (Sumatra) where positive lightning/NINO3.4 correlations are collocated with negative precipitation/NINO3.4 correlations. Evidence of linear relationships between the spatial extent of thunderstorm distribution and the respective NINO3.4 magnitude are presented for different regions on the Earth. Strong coupling is found over areas remote to the main ENSO axis of influence and both during warm and cold ENSO phases. Most of the resulted relationships agree with the tendencies of precipitation related to ENSO empirical maps or documented teleconnection patterns. Over the Australian continent, opposite behavior in terms of thunderstorm activity is noted for warm ENSO phases with NINO3.4 magnitudes with NINO3.4>+l.08 and 0<NqNO3.4<I.08. Finally, we investigate the spatial distribution of areas that consistently portrayed enhanced lightning activity during the main warm/cold (El Nino/La Nina) ENSO episodes of the past decade. The observed patterns show no spatial overlapping and identify areas that in their majority are in agreement with empirical precipitation/ENSO maps. The areas that appear during the warm ENSO phase are found over regions that have been identified as anomalous Hadley circulation ENSO-related patterns. The areas that appear during the cold ENSO phase are found predominantly around the west hemisphere equatorial belt and are in their majority identified by anomalous Walker circulation.

Chronis, Themis G.↗

DOE OSTI2023

TransformerG2G: Adaptive time-stepping for learning temporal graph embeddings using transformers

Dynamic graph embedding has emerged as a very effective technique for addressing diverse temporal graph analytic tasks (i.e., link prediction, node classification, recommender systems, anomaly detection, and graph generation) in various applications. Such temporal graphs exhibit heterogeneous transient dynamics, varying time intervals, and highly evolving node features throughout their evolution. Hence, incorporating long-range dependencies from the historical graph context plays a crucial role in accurately learning their temporal dynamics. In this paper, we develop a graph embedding model with uncertainty quantification, TransformerG2G, by exploiting the advanced transformer encoder to first learn intermediate node representations from its current state (t) and previous context (over timestamps [t–1,t–l], l is the length of context). Moreover, we employ two projection layers to generate lower-dimensional multivariate Gaussian distributions as each node's latent embedding at timestamp t. We consider diverse benchmarks with varying levels of "novelty" as measured by the TEA (Temporal Edge Appearance) plots. Here, our experiments demonstrate that the proposed TransformerG2G model outperforms conventional multi-step methods and our prior work (DynG2G) in terms of both link prediction accuracy and computational efficiency, especially for high degree of novelty. Furthermore, the learned time-dependent attention weights across multiple graph snapshots reveal the development of an automatic adaptive time stepping enabled by the transformer. Importantly, by examining the attention weights, we can uncover temporal dependencies, identify influential elements, and gain insights into the complex interactions within the graph structure. For example, we identified a strong correlation between attention weights and node degree at the various stages of the graph topology evolution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1973

Retrieval of dispersive and convective transport phenomena in fluids using stationary and nonstationary time domain analysis

Simultaneously occuring dispersive and convective components of fluid kinematics are obtained by a time domain analysis of optically retrieved temporal histories of the transport phenomena. Utilizing triangulation of collimated optical fields of view from two radiometers to obtain the temporal histories of the intensity fluctuations associated with the transport phenomena has enabled investigators to retrieve the local convective transport by employing correlation statistics. The location of the peak in the covariance curve determines the transit time from which the convection velocity is calculated; whereas, the change in shape of the peak in the covariance curve determines the change in average frequency of the wave packet from which the dispersion velocity is calculated. Thus, two-component analysis requires the maximum possible enhancement of the delineation for the transport. The convection velocity is the result of a fixed reference frame calculation whereas, the dispersion velocity is the result of a moving reference frame calcuation.

Stephens, J. B.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Internal waves in the Gulf of California - Observations from a spaceborne radar

Pronounced signatures of internal waves were detected repeatedly in the Gulf of California by the Seasat synthetic aperture radar (SAR). A series of nine images with exactly repeating ground coverage was used to study the temporal variability of the internal wave field in the area. It was found that the number of observed wave groups was highly correlated with the strength of the local tides: the maximum number occurred during spring tides and the minimum number occurred during neap tides, indicating that the internal waves were tidally forced. Most of the wave activity was found to the north of 28 deg N where the tides were the strongest in the Gulf. The application of a simple, nonlinear internal wave model to the observations indicated that the peak-to-peak amplitude of the observed waves was about 50 m with an uncertainty of a factor of 2. The estimated upper bound for the rate of the loss of tidal energy to internal waves was about 5 x 10 to the 15th erg/s, representing only 10 percent of the rate of the dissipation of the dominant M2 tide in the Gulf.

Fu, L.-L.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Laboratory evaluation and application of microwave absorption properties under simulated conditions for planetary atmospheres

Laboratory measurements of microwave and millimeter wave properties of the simulated atmosphere of the outer planets and their satellites has continued. One of the focuses is on the development of a radiative transfer model of the Jovian atmosphere at wavelengths from 1 mm to 10 cm. This modeling effort led to laboratory measurements of the millimeter wave opacity of hydrogen sulfide (H2S) under simulated Jovian conditions. Descriptions of the modeling effort, the Laboratory experiment, and the observations are presented. Correlative studies of measurements with Pioneer-Venus radio occultation measurements with longer wavelength emission measurements have provided new ways for characterizing temporal and spatial variations in the abundance of both gases H2SO4 and SO2, and for modeling their roles in the subcloud atmosphere. Laboratory measurements were conducted on 1.35 cm (and 13 cm) opacity of gaseous SO2 and absorptivity of gaseous SO2 at the 3.2 mm wavelength under simulated Venus conditions. Laboratory measurements were completed on millimeter wave dielectric properties of liquid H2SO4, in order to model the effects of the opacity of the clouds of Venus onto millimeter wave emission spectrum.

Steffes, Paul G.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Quasi-biennial modulation of planetary-wave fluxes in the Northern Hemisphere winter

Using 25 years of National Meteorological Center (NMC) data for 1964-88 the relation between tropical and extratropical quasi-biennial oscillations (QBOs) was examined for zonally averaged quantities and planetary-wave Eliassen-Palm fluxes in the Northern Hemisphere winter. The extratropical QBO discussed by Holton and Tan (1980) existed in both temporal halves of the dataset. Autocorrelation analysis demonstrated that it was an important mode of interannual variability in the extratropical winter stratosphere. Correlation with the tropics was strongest when 40-mb equatorial winds were used to define the tropical QBO. Easterly phase at 40 mb implied a weaker than normal polar night jet and warmer than normal polar temperature and vice versa. An opposite relationship was obtained using 10-mb equatorial winds. The association between tropical and extratropical QBOs was observed in about 90 percent of the winters and was statistically significant. It is shown that planetary-wave Eliassen-Palm fluxes were generally consistent with the extratropical QBO. These fluxes were more (less) convergent in the midlatitude (subtropical) upper stratosphere in the 40-mb east (= easterly) phase category relative to the west category.

Dunkerton, Timothy J.↗

NASA NTRS1994

NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Graduate Student Program

The evolution of synoptic-scale dynamics associated with a middle and upper tropospheric cloud event that occurred on 26 November 1991 is examined. The case under consideration occurred during the FIRE CIRRUS-II Intensive Field Observing Period held in Coffeyville, KS during Nov. and Dec., 1991. Using data from the wind profiler demonstration network and a temporally and spatially augmented radiosonde array, emphasis is given to explaining the evolution of the kinematically-derived ageostrophic vertical circulations and correlating the circulation with the forcing of an extensively sampled cloud field. This is facilitated by decomposing the horizontal divergence into its component parts through a natural coordinate representation of the flow. Ageostrophic vertical circulations are inferred and compared to the circulation forcing arising from geostrophic confluence and shearing deformation derived from the Sawyer-Eliassen Equation. It is found that a thermodynamically indirect vertical circulation existed in association with a jet streak exit region. The circulation was displaced to the cyclonic side of the jet axis due to the orientation of the jet exit between a deepening diffluent trough and building ridge. The cloud line formed in the ascending branch of the vertical circulation with the most concentrated cloud development occurring in conjunction with the maximum large-scale vertical motion. The relationship between the large scale dynamics and the parameterization of middle and upper tropospheric clouds in large-scale models is discussed and an example of ice water contents derived from a parameterization forced by the diagnosed vertical motions and observed water vapor contents is presented.

Ackerman, Thomas P.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Extended field observations of cirrus clouds using a ground-based cloud observing system

Ackerman, Thomas P.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Sequences of correlated hard X-ray and type III bursts during solar flares

Acceleration and injection of electron beams in solar flares can be traced from radio type III (or type U) bursts and correlated hard X-ray pulses with similar timescales and nonthermal spectra. We perform a systematic survey of such correlated radio and hard X-ray (HXR) pulses with timescales of less than or approximately 2 s in flares simultaneously observed with the radio spectrometer Ikarus and the Hard X-Ray Burst Spectrometer (HXRBS) on solar maximum mission (SMM). We applied an epoch-folding technique to enhance correlated time patterns in burst sequences at the two wavelengths. We present the results from the strongest (10) flares with a HXRBS count rate greater than or = 3000 counts/s, which have a satisfactory signal-to-noise ratio for subsecond pulses. The major findings of this study are presented. These observations strongly suggest that particle acceleration in solar flares occurs in a pulsed mode where electron beams are simultaneously injected in upward and downward directions. Since the sequences of correlated HXR and radio bursts show identical durations and intervals at the two wavelengths, they are believed to reflect most directly the temporal dynamics of the underlying common accelerator. As a consequence, thick-target models should be reconsidered under the aspect of electron injection with pulse durations of 0.2-2.0 s and duty cycles of approximately = 50%.

Aschwanden, Markus J.↗

NASA NTRS1995

On-line estimation of error covariance parameters for atmospheric data assimilation

A simple scheme is presented for on-line estimation of covariance parameters in statistical data assimilation systems. The scheme is based on a maximum-likelihood approach in which estimates are produced on the basis of a single batch of simultaneous observations. Simple-sample covariance estimation is reasonable as long as the number of available observations exceeds the number of tunable parameters by two or three orders of magnitude. Not much is known at present about model error associated with actual forecast systems. Our scheme can be used to estimate some important statistical model error parameters such as regionally averaged variances or characteristic correlation length scales. The advantage of the single-sample approach is that it does not rely on any assumptions about the temporal behavior of the covariance parameters: time-dependent parameter estimates can be continuously adjusted on the basis of current observations. This is of practical importance since it is likely to be the case that both model error and observation error strongly depend on the actual state of the atmosphere. The single-sample estimation scheme can be incorporated into any four-dimensional statistical data assimilation system that involves explicit calculation of forecast error covariances, including optimal interpolation (OI) and the simplified Kalman filter (SKF). The computational cost of the scheme is high but not prohibitive; on-line estimation of one or two covariance parameters in each analysis box of an operational bozed-OI system is currently feasible. A number of numerical experiments performed with an adaptive SKF and an adaptive version of OI, using a linear two-dimensional shallow-water model and artificially generated model error are described. The performance of the nonadaptive versions of these methods turns out to depend rather strongly on correct specification of model error parameters. These parameters are estimated under a variety of conditions, including uniformly distributed model error and time-dependent model error statistics.

Dee, Dick P.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Revisiting the Relationship between Atlantic Dust and Tropical Cyclone Activity using Aerosol Optical Depth Reanalyses: 2003-2018

Previous studies have noted a relationship between African dust and Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity. However, due to the limitations of past dust analyses, the strength of this relationship remains uncertain. The emergence of aerosol reanalyses, including the Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS) aerosol optical depth (AOD) reanalysis, NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), and ECMWF Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service reanalysis (CAMSRA), enables an investigation of the relationship between African dust and TC activity over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean in a consistent temporal and spatial manner for 2003–2018. Although June–July–August (JJA) 550 nm dust AOD (DAOD) from all three reanalysis products correlates significantly over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, the difference in DAOD magnitude between products can be as large as 60 % over the Caribbean and 20 % over the tropical North Atlantic. Based on the three individual reanalyses, we have created an aerosol multi-reanalysis consensus (MRC). The MRC presents overall better root mean square error over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean compared to individual reanalyses when verified with ground-based AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) AOD measurements. Each of the three individual reanalyses and the MRC have significant negative correlations between JJA Caribbean DAOD and seasonal Atlantic accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), while the correlation between JJA tropical North Atlantic DAOD and seasonal ACE is weaker. Possible reasons for this regional difference are provided. A composite analysis of 3 high-JJA-Caribbean-DAOD years versus 3 low-JJA-Caribbean-DAOD years reveals large differences in overall Atlantic TC activity. We also show that JJA Caribbean DAOD is significantly correlated with large-scale fields associated with variability in interannual Atlantic TC activity including zonal wind shear, mid-level moisture, and sea surface temperature (SST), as well as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM), implying confounding effects of these factors on the dust–TC relationship. We find that seasonal Atlantic DAOD and the AMM, the leading mode of coupled Atlantic variability, are inversely related and intertwined in the dust–TC relationship. Overall, DAOD in both the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean is negatively correlated with Atlantic hurricane frequency and intensity, with stronger correlations in the Caribbean than farther east in the tropical North Atlantic.

Dust particles↗

NASA NTRS2022

What Is Unusual About the Third Largest Geomagnetic Storm of Solar Cycle 24?

We report on the solar and interplanetary (IP) causes of the third largest geomagnetic storm (26 August 2018) in solar cycle 24. The underlying coronal mass ejection (CME) originating from a quiescent filament region becomes a 440 km/s magnetic cloud (MC) at 1 au after ∼5 days. The prolonged CME acceleration (for ∼24 hr) coincides with the time profiles of the post-eruption arcade intensity and reconnected flux. Chen et al. (2019, https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ab3f36) obtain a lower speed since they assumed that the CME does not accelerate after ∼12 hr. The presence of multiple coronal holes near the filament channel and the high-speed wind from them seem to have the combined effect of producing complex rotation in the corona and IP medium resulting in a high-inclination MC. The Dst time profile in the main phase steepens significantly (rapid increase in storm intensity) coincident with the density increase (prominence material) in the second half of the MC. Simulations using the Comprehensive Inner Magnetosphere-Ionosphere model show that a higher ring current energy results from larger dynamic pressure (density) in MCs. Furthermore, the Dst index is highly correlated with the main-phase time integral of the ring current injection that includes density, consistent with the simulations. A complex temporal structure develops in the storm main phase if the underlying MC has a complex density structure during intervals of southward IP magnetic field. We conclude that the high intensity of the storm results from the prolonged CME acceleration, complex rotation of the CME flux rope, and the high density in the 1-au MC.

N. Gopalswamy↗

NASA NTRS2007

The Prelude to and Aftermath of the Giant Flare of 2004 December 27: Persistent and Pulsed X-ray Properties of SGR 1806-20 from 1993 to 2005

We report on the evolution of key spectral and temporal parameters of SGR 1806-20 prior to and following the highly energetic giant flare of 2004 December 27. Using RXTE, we track the pulse frequency of the SGR and find that the spin-down rate varied erratically in the months before and after the flare. Contrary to the giant flare in SGR 1900+14, we find no evidence for a discrete jump in spin frequency at the time of the December 27th flare (Absolute value of (Delta * upsilon/upsilon) < 5 10 (exp -6)). In the months surrounding the flare, we find a strong correlation between pulsed flux and torque consistent with the model for magnetar magnetosphere electrodynamics proposed. As with the flare in SGR 1900+14, the pulse morphology of SGR 1806-20 changes drastically following the flare. Using Chandra and other publicly available imaging X-ray detector observations, we construct a spectral history of SGR 1806-20 from 1993 to 2005. The usual magnetar persistent emission spectral model of a power law plus a blackbody provides an excellent fit to the data. We confirm the earlier finding of increasing spectral hardness of SGR 1806-20 between 1993 and 2004. However, our results indicate significant differences in the temporal evolution of the spectral hardening. Rather than a direct correlation between torque and spectral hardness, we find evidence for a sudden torque change that preceded a gradual hardening of the energy spectrum on a timescale of years. Interestingly, the spectral hardness, spin-down rate, phase-averaged flux, and pulsed flux of SGR 1806-20 all peak months before the flare epoch.

Woods, Peter M.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Improved temporal resolution in ultrafast electron diffraction measurements through THz compression and time-stamping

We present an experimental demonstration of ultrafast electron diffraction (UED) with THz-driven electron bunch compression and time-stamping that enables UED probes with improved temporal resolution. Through THz-driven longitudinal bunch compression, a compression factor of approximately four is achieved. Moreover, the time-of-arrival jitter between the compressed electron bunch and a pump laser pulse is suppressed by a factor of three. Simultaneously, the THz interaction imparts a transverse spatiotemporal correlation on the electron distribution, which we utilize to further enhance the precision of time-resolved UED measurements. We use this technique to probe single-crystal gold nanofilms and reveal transient oscillations in the THz near fields with a temporal resolution down to 50 fs. These oscillations were previously beyond reach in the absence of THz compression and time-stamping.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

NASA NTRS2016

Study of the Effect of Temporal Sampling Frequency on DSCOVR Observations Using the GEOS-5 Nature Run Results: Cloud Coverage - Part II

This is the second part of a study on how temporal sampling frequency affects satellite retrievals in support of the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) mission. Continuing from Part 1, which looked at Earth's radiation budget, this paper presents the effect of sampling frequency on DSCOVR-derived cloud fraction. The output from NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) Nature Run is used as the "truth". The effect of temporal resolution on potential DSCOVR observations is assessed by subsampling the full Nature Run data. A set of metrics, including uncertainty and absolute error in the subsampled time series, correlation between the original and the subsamples, and Fourier analysis have been used for this study. Results show that, for a given sampling frequency, the uncertainties in the annual mean cloud fraction of the sunlit half of the Earth are larger over land than over ocean. Analysis of correlation coefficients between the subsamples and the original time series demonstrates that even though sampling at certain longer time intervals may not increase the uncertainty in the mean, the subsampled time series is further and further away from the "truth" as the sampling interval becomes larger and larger. Fourier analysis shows that the simulated DSCOVR cloud fraction has underlying periodical features at certain time intervals, such as 8, 12, and 24 h. If the data is subsampled at these frequencies, the uncertainties in the mean cloud fraction are higher. These results provide helpful insights for the DSCOVR temporal sampling strategy.

GEOS-5↗

NASA NTRS2016

Correlation of Coronal Plasma Properties and Solar Magnetic Field in a Decaying Active Region

We present the analysis of a decaying active region observed by the EUV Imaging Spectrometer on Hinode during 2009 December 7-11. We investigated the temporal evolution of its structure exhibited by plasma at temperatures from 300,000 to 2.8 million degrees, and derived the electron density, differential emission measure, effective electron temperature, and elemental abundance ratios of Si/S and Fe/S (as a measure of the First Ionization Potential (FIP) Effect). We compared these coronal properties to the temporal evolution of the photospheric magnetic field strength obtained from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Michelson Doppler Imager magnetograms. We find that, while these coronal properties all decreased with time during this decay phase, the largest change was at plasma above 1.5 million degrees. The photospheric magnetic field strength also decreased with time but mainly for field strengths lower than about 70 Gauss. The effective electron temperature and the FIP bias seem to reach a basal state (at 1.5 x 10(exp 6) K and 1.5, respectively) into the quiet Sun when the mean photospheric magnetic field (excluding all areas <10 G) weakened to below 35 G, while the electron density continued to decrease with the weakening field. These physical properties are all positively correlated with each other and the correlation is the strongest in the high-temperature plasma. Such correlation properties should be considered in the quest for our understanding of how the corona is heated. The variations in the elemental abundance should especially be considered together with the electron temperature and density.

Sun: abundances↗

DOE OSTI2021

TROPOMI NO 2 in the United States: A Detailed Look at the Annual Averages, Weekly Cycles, Effects of Temperature, and Correlation With Surface NO 2 Concentrations

Abstract Observing the spatial heterogeneities of NO 2 air pollution is an important first step in quantifying NO X emissions and exposures. This study investigates the capabilities of the Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) in observing the spatial and temporal patterns of NO 2 pollution in the continental United States. The unprecedented sensitivity of the sensor can differentiate the fine‐scale spatial heterogeneities in urban areas, such as emissions related to airport/shipping operations and high traffic, and the relatively small emission sources in rural areas, such as power plants and mining operations. We then examine NO 2 columns by day‐of‐the‐week and find that Saturday and Sunday concentrations are 16% and 24% lower respectively, than during weekdays. We also analyze the correlation of daily maximum 2‐m temperatures and NO 2 column amounts and find that NO 2 is larger on the hottest days (>32°C) as compared to warm days (26°C–32°C), which is in contrast to a general decrease in NO 2 with increasing temperature at moderate temperatures. Finally, we demonstrate that a linear regression fit of 2019 annual TROPOMI NO 2 data to annual surface‐level concentrations yields relatively strong correlation ( R 2 = 0.66). These new developments make TROPOMI NO 2 satellite data advantageous for policymakers and public health officials, who request information at high spatial resolution and short timescales, in order to assess, devise, and evaluate regulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2010

The Latest Space-Borne Observations of TGFs from Fermi-GBM

The Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM) on the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope Observatory (Fermi) is detecting about two TGFs per week. This rate has increased by a factor of approx.eight since launch when flight software was uploaded to the spacecraft in November 2009 in order to increase the sensitivity of GBM to TGFs. Weaker, un-triggered TGFs are now also being observed about once per day over selected low-latitude regions Americas. The high efficiency and time resolution (2 s) of GBM allows temporal features to be resolved so that some insight may be gained on the origin and transport of the gamma-ray photons through the atmosphere. TGFs are observed to be shorter than previously thought, with an average duration of approx.100 micro-s. The absolute times of TGFs are known to approx.10 micro-s, allowing accurate correlations of TGFs with lightning networks and other lightning-related phenomena. The events are observed in the thick bismuth germanate (BGO) scintillation detectors of GBM with photon energies above 40 MeV. Other new results on the temporal and spectral characteristics of TGFs will be presented, along with properties of several electron-positron TGF events that have been identified.

Fishman, Gerald J.↗