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At least 667 records · Page 37

A Generalized Copula-Polynomial Chaos Expansion for Probabilistic Power Flow Considering Nonlinear Correlations of PV Injections

This paper develops a generalized Copula-polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) framework for power system probabilistic power flow that can handle both linear and nonlinear correlations of uncertain power injections, such as wind and PVs. A data-driven Copula statistical model is used to capture the correlations of uncertain power injections. This allows us to resort to the Rosenblatt transformation to transform correlated variables into independent ones while preserving the dependence structure. This paves the way of leveraging the PCE for surrogate modeling and uncertainty quantification of power flow results, i.e., achieving the probabilistic distributions of power flows. Simulations carried out on the IEEE 57-bus system show that the proposed framework can get much more accurate results than other alternatives with different linear and nonlinear power injection correlations.

copula↗

Genome-Wide Analysis of RNA Decay in the Cyanobacterium Synechococcus sp. Strain PCC 7002

ABSTRACT RNA degradation is an important process that influences the ultimate concentration of individual proteins inside cells. While the main enzymes that facilitate this process have been identified, global maps of RNA turnover are available for only a few species. Even in these cases, there are few sequence elements that are known to enhance or destabilize a native transcript; even fewer confer the same effect when added to a heterologous transcript. To address this knowledge gap, we assayed genome-wide RNA degradation in the cyanobacterium Synechococcus sp. strain PCC 7002 by collecting total RNA samples after stopping nascent transcription with rifampin. We quantified the abundance of each position in the transcriptome as a function of time using RNA-sequencing data and later analyzed the global mRNA decay map using machine learning principles. Half-lives, calculated on a per-ORF (open reading frame) basis, were extremely short, with a median half-life of only 0.97 min. Despite extremely rapid turnover of most mRNA, transcripts encoding proteins involved in photosynthesis were both highly expressed and highly stable. Upon inspection of these stable transcripts, we identified an enriched motif in the 3′ untranslated region (UTR) that had similarity to Rho-independent terminators. We built statistical models for half-life prediction and used them to systematically identify sequence motifs in both 5′ and 3′ UTRs that correlate with stabilized transcripts. We found that transcripts linked to a terminator containing a poly(U) tract had a longer half-life than both those without a poly(U) tract and those without a terminator. IMPORTANCE RNA degradation is an important process that affects the final concentration of individual mRNAs, affecting protein expression and cellular physiology. Studies of how RNA is degraded increase our knowledge of this fundamental process as well as enable the creation of genetic tools to manipulate RNA stability. By studying global transcript turnover, we searched for sequence elements that correlated with transcript (in)stability and used these sequences to guide tool design. This study probes global RNA turnover in a cyanobacterium, Synechococcus sp. strain PCC 7002, that both has a unique array of RNases that facilitate RNA degradation and is an industrially relevant strain that could be used to convert CO 2 and sunlight into useful products.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Trojan horse method as an indirect approach to study resonant reactions in nuclear astrophysics

The primary goal of the Trojan horse method (THM) is to analyze resonant rearrangement reactions when the density of the resonance levels is low and statistical models cannot be applied. The main difficulty of the analysis is related with the facts that in the final state the THM reaction involves three particles and that the intermediate particle, which is transferred from the Trojan horse particle to the target nucleus to form a resonance state, is virtual. Another difficulty is associated with the Coulomb interaction between the particles, especially, taking into account that the goal of the THM is to study resonant rearrangement reactions at very low energies important for nuclear astrophysics. The exact theory of such reactions with three charged particles is very complicated and is not available. This is why different approximations are used to analyze THM reactions. In this review paper we describe a new approach based on a few-body formalism that provides a solid basis for deriving the THM reaction amplitude taking into account rescattering of the particles in the initial, intermediate and final states of the THM reaction. Since the THM uses a two-step reaction in which the first step is the transfer reaction populating a resonance state, we address the theory of the transfer reactions. The theory is based on the surface-integral approach and R-matrix formalism. We also discuss application of the THM to resonant reactions populating both resonances located on the second energy sheet and subthreshold resonances, which are subthreshold bound states located at negative energies close to thresholds. We consider the application of the THM to determine the astrophysical factors of resonant radiative-capture reactions at energies so low that direct measurements can hardly be performed due to the negligibly small penetrability factor in the entry channel of the reaction. Here, we elucidated the main ideas of the THM and outline necessary conditions to perform the THM experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Constraining the nuclear spin distribution using improved 197 Au neutron resonance parameters

New neutron transmission data at resonance energies using a 197 Au sample were measured using an early version of the Device for Indirect Capture Experiments on Radionuclides (DICER), which is under development at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE). These data were combined with previous neutron transmission and capture data in a simultaneous R-matrix analysis to extract improved neutron resonance parameters for this nuclide. As a result, total radiation widths, Γ γ , were obtained for 33 J=1 and 44 J=2 197 Au+n resonances. Γ γ distributions for these two spins states were compared to distributions calculated according to the nuclear statistical model using published nuclear level density (NLD) and photon strength functions (PSF) measured using the Oslo technique. The calculated distributions were found to be narrower and the average values for the two spins states closer together than the data. The calculation can be brought into agreement with the data by substantial modifications to the spin distribution in 198 Au as a function of excitation energy. As far as we know, the spin distribution currently is otherwise poorly constrained. The modified spin distribution changes the shapes of the NLD and PSF extracted using the Oslo technique and so could have broad implications.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Measurements of ${\Xi \left( 1530\right) ^{0}} $ and ${\overline{\Xi }\left( 1530\right) ^{0}} $ production in proton–proton interactions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 17.3 $\text{ GeV }$ in the NA61/SHINE experiment

Double-differential yields of ${\Xi \left( 1530\right) ^{0}} $ and ${\overline{\Xi }\left( 1530\right) ^{0}} $ resonances produced in p+p interactions were measured at a laboratory beam momentum of 158 $\text{ GeV }\!/\!c$. This measurement is the first of its kind in p+p interactions below LHC energies. It was performed at the CERN SPS by the NA61/SHINE collaboration. Double-differential distributions in rapidity and transverse momentum were obtained from a sample of $26\times 10^6$ inelastic events. The spectra are extrapolated to full phase space resulting in mean multiplicity of ${\Xi \left( 1530\right) ^{0}} $ ($6.73 \pm 0.25\pm 0.67)\times 10^{-4}$ and ${\overline{\Xi }\left( 1530\right) ^{0}} $ ($2.71 \pm 0.18\pm 0.18)\times 10^{-4}$. The rapidity and transverse momentum spectra and mean multiplicities were compared to predictions of string-hadronic and statistical model calculations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Expanding the access of wearable silicone wristbands in community-engaged research through best practices in data analysis and integration

Wearable silicone wristbands are a rapidly growing exposure assessment technology that offer researchers the ability to study previously inaccessible cohorts and have the potential to provide a more comprehensive picture of chemical exposure within diverse communities. However, there are no established best practices for analyzing the data within a study or across multiple studies, thereby limiting impact and access of these data for larger meta-analyses. We utilize data from three studies, from over 600 wristbands worn by participants in New York City and Eugene, Oregon, to present a first-of-its-kind manuscript detailing wristband data properties. We further discuss and provide concrete examples of key areas and considerations in common statistical modeling methods where best practices must be established to enable meta-analyses and integration of data from multiple studies. Finally, we detail important and challenging aspects of machine learning, meta-analysis, and data integration that researchers will face in order to extend beyond the limited scope of individual studies focused on specific populations.

Bramer, Lisa M.↗

Bimolecular Chemistry in the Ultracold Regime

Advances in atomic, molecular, and optical physics techniques allowed the cooling of simple molecules down to the ultracold regime ([Formula: see text]1 mK) and opened opportunities to study chemical reactions with unprecedented levels of control. This review covers recent developments in studying bimolecular chemistry at ultralow temperatures. We begin with a brief overview of methods for producing, manipulating, and detecting ultracold molecules. We then survey experimental works that exploit the controllability of ultracold molecules to probe and modify their long-range interactions. Further combining the use of physical chemistry techniques such as mass spectrometry and ion imaging significantly improved the detection of ultracold reactions and enabled explorations of their dynamics in the short range. We discuss a series of studies on the reaction KRb + KRb → K 2 + Rb 2 initiated below 1 μK, including the direct observation of a long-lived complex, the demonstration of product rotational state control via conserved nuclear spins, and a test of the statistical model using the complete quantum state distribution of the products.

Chemistry↗

Code for the manuscript "Lagrangian Attention Tensor Networks for Velocity Gradient Statistical Mode

We disclose a python/pytorch implementation of the physics-informed machine learning algorithm described in "Lagrangian Attention Tensor Networks for Velocity Gradient Statistical Modeling", LA-UR-24-30678. Direct numerical simulation (DNS) of ubiquitous turbulence phenomena is computationally infeasible for realistic flows. As a result, reduced modeling for turbulent flows aim to reduce the number of resolved scales while retaining accurate representations of the small-scale physics. The dynamics of the velocity gradient tensor (VGT) is a key ingredient in reduced or subgrid turbulence models. The evolution equation for the VGT involves nonlocal terms, requiring closure modeling. This implementation of the novel methodology of Lagrangian Attention Tensor Networks (LATN), utilizes a structured representation of the history of the VGT to inform a physics-informed machine learning algorithm. This addition of structured memory terms is shown to outperform previous models when trained and evaluated on DNS data.

Livescu, Daniel [LANL]↗

Coding and noncoding variants in EBF3 are involved in HADDS and simplex autism

Abstract Background Previous research in autism and other neurodevelopmental disorders (NDDs) has indicated an important contribution of protein-coding (coding) de novo variants (DNVs) within specific genes. The role of de novo noncoding variation has been observable as a general increase in genetic burden but has yet to be resolved to individual functional elements. In this study, we assessed whole-genome sequencing data in 2671 families with autism (discovery cohort of 516 families, replication cohort of 2155 families). We focused on DNVs in enhancers with characterized in vivo activity in the brain and identified an excess of DNVs in an enhancer named hs737. Results We adapted the fitDNM statistical model to work in noncoding regions and tested enhancers for excess of DNVs in families with autism. We found only one enhancer (hs737) with nominal significance in the discovery (p = 0.0172), replication (p = 2.5 × 10 −3 ), and combined dataset (p = 1.1 × 10 −4 ). Each individual with a DNV in hs737 had shared phenotypes including being male, intact cognitive function, and hypotonia or motor delay. Our in vitro assessment of the DNVs showed they all reduce enhancer activity in a neuronal cell line. By epigenomic analyses, we found that hs737 is brain-specific and targets the transcription factor gene EBF3 in human fetal brain. EBF3 is genome-wide significant for coding DNVs in NDDs (missense p = 8.12 × 10 −35 , loss-of-function p = 2.26 × 10 −13 ) and is widely expressed in the body. Through characterization of promoters bound by EBF3 in neuronal cells, we saw enrichment for binding to NDD genes (p = 7.43 × 10 −6 , OR = 1.87) involved in gene regulation. Individuals with coding DNVs have greater phenotypic severity (hypotonia, ataxia, and delayed development syndrome [HADDS]) in comparison to individuals with noncoding DNVs that have autism and hypotonia. Conclusions In this study, we identify DNVs in the hs737 enhancer in individuals with autism. Through multiple approaches, we find hs737 targets the gene EBF3 that is genome-wide significant in NDDs. By assessment of noncoding variation and the genes they affect, we are beginning to understand their impact on gene regulatory networks in NDDs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

General Bayesian Inference over the Stiefel Manifold via the Givens Transform

We introduce here an approach based on the Givens representation for posterior inference in statistical models with orthogonal matrix parameters, such as factor models and probabilistic principal component analysis (PPCA). We show how the Givens representation can be used to develop practical methods for transforming densities over the Stiefel manifold into densities over subsets of Euclidean space. We demonstrate how to deal with issues arising from the topology of the Stiefel manifold and how to inexpensively compute the change-of-measure terms. We introduce an auxiliary parameter approach that limits the impact of topological issues. We provide both analysis of our methods and numerical examples demonstrating the effectiveness of the approach. We also discuss how our Givens representation can be used to define general classes of distributions over the space of orthogonal matrices. We then give demonstrations on several examples showing how the Givens approach performs in practice in comparison with other methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Using spatio-temporal graph neural networks to estimate fleet-wide photovoltaic performance degradation patterns

Accurate estimation of photovoltaic (PV) system performance is crucial for determining its feasibility as a power generation technology and financial asset. PV-based energy solutions offer a viable alternative to traditional energy resources due to their superior Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE). A significant challenge in assessing the LCOE of PV systems lies in understanding the Performance Loss Rate (PLR) for large fleets of PV systems. Estimating the PLR of PV systems becomes increasingly important in the rapidly growing PV industry. Precise PLR estimation benefits PV users by providing real-time monitoring of PV module performance, while explainable PLR estimation assists PV manufacturers in studying and enhancing the performance of their products. However, traditional PLR estimation methods based on statistical models have notable drawbacks. Firstly, they require user knowledge and decision-making. Secondly, they fail to leverage spatial coherence for fleet-level analysis. Additionally, these methods inherently assume the linearity of degradation, which is not representative of real world degradation. To overcome these challenges, we propose a novel graph deep learning-based decomposition method called the Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Network for fleet-level PLR estimation (PV-stGNN-PLR). PV-stGNN-PLR decomposes the power timeseries data into aging and fluctuation components, utilizing the aging component to estimate PLR. PV-stGNN-PLR exploits spatial and temporal coherence to derive PLR estimation for all systems in a fleet and imposes flatness and smoothness regularization in loss function to ensure the successful disentanglement between aging and fluctuation. We have evaluated PV-stGNN-PLR on three simulated PV datasets consisting of 100 inverters from 5 sites. Experimental results show that PV-stGNN-PLR obtains a reduction of 33.9% and 35.1% on average in Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) and Euclidean Distance (ED) in PLR degradation pattern estimation compared to the state-of-the-art PLR estimation methods.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Installation of Direct Water-Cooling Systems to Reduce Cooling Energy Requirements for High-Performance Computing Centers

A large cluster of High-Performance Computing (HPC) equipment at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California was retrofitted with an Asetek cooling system. The Asetek system is a hybrid scheme with water-cooled cold plates on high-heat-producing components in the information technology (IT) equipment, and with the remainder of the heat being removed by conventional air-cooling systems. In order to determine energy savings of the Asetek system, data were gathered and analyzed two ways: using top-down statistical models, and bottom-up engineering models. The cluster, “Cabernet”, rejected its heat into a facilities cooling water loop which in turn rejected the heat into the same chilled water system serving the computer-room air handlers (CRAHs) that provided the air-based cooling for the room. Because the “before” and “after” cases both reject their heat into the chilled water system, the only savings is due to reduction in CRAH fan power. The top-down analysis showed a 4% overall energy savings for the data center (power usage effectiveness (PUE) —the ratio of total data center energy to IT energy— dropped from 1.60 to 1.53, lower is better); the bottom-up analysis showed a 3% overall energy savings (PUE from 1.70 to 1.66) and an 11% savings for the Cabernet system by itself (partial PUE of 1.51). Greater savings, on the order of 15-20%, would be possible if the chilled water system was not used for rejecting the heat from the Asetek system. About 37% of the heat from the Cab system was rejected to the cooling water, lower than at other installations.

Earni, Shankar↗

Data Evaluation of Actinide Cross Sections: 230 Th and 231 Th

A new evaluation of the ENDL cross section set for Thorium (Z=90) is developed using the TALYS statistical model cross section code. The primary goal of this effort is to produce an evaluation that attempts to match as closely as possible fission cross sections developed through surrogate reaction techniques on actinide targets 230 Th and 231 Th. This evaluation effort and the processing needed to render its results into data libraries is a necessary step in making the efforts of nuclear experimentalists useful to the broad community of researchers engaged in simulations of nuclear fusion for basic and applied science. Another aspect, verification and validation against various AGEX experiments, is also presented. The end-product is an updated library that includes the latest measurements of fission cross sections for comparison against those measured via traditional techniques. All the steps in the evaluation, processing, validation and verification, and library release are described in the following sections. For completeness, the appendix contains all the parameters used in the TALYS cross section evaluation for neutrons incident on 230 Th and 231 Th.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Bayesian Optimal Sensor Augmentation Via Estimated Mutual Information

We consider the problem of designing a sensor network to most efficiently locate the source of a seismic event. The left panel of Figure 1 shows 982 possible sensor locations in a region of interest. The objective is to infer the unknown location of an earthquake, indicated by the gold dot for illustration purposes. Assume that three sensors have already been placed for data collection. Travel times of the P-wave from the source to the three sensors are observed and used to infer the unknown source location via a Bayesian statistical model described subsequently. The right panel of Figure 1 shows samples from the resulting posterior distribution for source location along with a posterior estimate of this location.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Theoretical study of various nonlinear phenomena in plasma systems and scaling of magneto-inertial-fusion targets

Plasma physics is an exciting field of study with a wide variety of nonlinear processes that come into play. Examples of such processes include the interaction of small-scale turbulence with large-scale plasma structures and the nonlinear saturation of plasma instabilities, for example those of magneto-hydrodynamical nature. During this Truman LDRD project, I studied a collection of nonlinear problems that are of interest to the field of plasma physics. This LDRD report summarizes four main research accomplishments. First, a new statistical model for describing inhomogeneous drift-wave turbulence inter- acting with zonal flows was developed. This new model includes the effects of nonlinear wave-wave collisions, which are expected to change the spectrum of the underlying DW turbulence and therefore the generation of zonal flows. Second, a new mathematical formalism was proposed to systematically apply the non- linear WKB approximation to general field theories, including those often used in fluid dynamics. This formalism represents an interesting tool for studying physical systems that show an explicit scale separation. Third, a weakly nonlinear model was developed to describe the magneto-Rayleigh-Taylor instability. This instability is of paramount importance to understand as it can reduce the performance of magnetic-inertial-fusion (MIF) platforms. The developed models captures the effects of harmonic generation and saturation of the linear growth of the instability. Finally, a framework was proposed for scaling magneto-inertial fusion (MIF) targets to larger pulsed-power drivers. From this framework, a set of scaling rules were derived that conserve the physical regimes of MIF systems when scaling up in peak current. By doing so, deleterious nonlinear processes that affect MIF performance may be kept at bay.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Feature Detection

Focal Area(s): This proposal aims to develop and evaluate statistical models and machine learning algorithms for detecting and tracking features in spatiotemporal remotely sensed data with uncertainty quantification. We focus a particular application on the detection of sea ice leads and ridges in the Arctic and use these key sea ice features for model calibration and to gain insight into the physics of sea ice thermodynamics and deformation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating Offshore Infrastructure Integrity

Drilling in the offshore environment involves a complex network of infrastructure including pipelines, platforms, rigs, subsea installations, ports, and terminals. Government and industry partners have developed this network over many decades and it remains a critical part of the United States (U.S.) energy portfolio. Many of the major components of this system have been designed with a 20- to 30-year lifespan, yet consistent and growing energy demands support the need to extend the design life of existing infrastructure or repurpose it for secondary needs (i.e. enhanced oil recovery, carbon storage, and new wells). As a result, a growing portion of the offshore infrastructure in the U.S. is approaching or has exceeded its original design life. A critical step in ensuring the continued safe and effective operation of offshore infrastructure is developing a comprehensive understanding of the state of offshore infrastructure and the factors that effect it. The purpose of this project is to assess the current state of existing infrastructure and identify the factors involved in infrastructure degradation through the development and application of big data analytics, machine learning, and advanced spatio-temporal analysis. The project leverages existing data at NETL and combines it with new information on offshore oil and gas structures and the ambient offshore environment in an effort to identify patterns associated with infrastructure integrity. Building on the identified trends and patterns, this project incorporates exploratory analytics and spatial analysis tools in conjunction with machine learning and statistical models to characterize the condition of existing platforms in the offshore environment and predict their risk of failure.

02 PETROLEUM↗