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At least 667 records · Page 37

Technoeconomic Analysis of Infrastructure Buildout Scenarios

The success of CCUS deployment in the southeast will depend on the optimized pipeline network from CO 2 point sources to geologic sinks for CO 2 storage. An optimal pipeline framework will reduce both environmental impacts and pipeline building cost. However, finding an optimal pipeline/transport infrastructure design is a non-trivial task and requires simultaneous usage of large volumes of data, computational resources, and a state-of-the-art simulator. Such a transport infrastructure model must consider point sources for CO 2 capture and associated volumes, sinks for CO 2 storage, and transportation from source to sink via pipeline networks. These considerations must be addressed simultaneously and systemically in an optimization process, in which a defined objective function (i.e., capital, variable CO 2 capture, transport, and storage cost function) is required to be minimized with the consideration of practical constraints (e.g., CO 2 flow through pipelines is less than the maximum capacity). Although optimization has been widely used in subsurface resources production and CO 2 storage, its application in large scale CCUS infrastructure design is rarely reported in the literature. SimCCS, developed by Los Alamos National Laboratory, is an open-source CCUS pipeline infrastructure design toolset that facilitates the optimization of pipeline infrastructure networks.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Koopman-Based Approach to Nonintrusive Reduced Order Modeling: Application to Aerodynamic Shape Optimization and Uncertainty Propagation

A methodology for nonintrusive projection-based nonlinear model reduction originally presented by Renganathan et al. is further extended here toward parametric systems with a focus on application to aerospace design. Specifically, the method is extended to address static systems with parametric geometry (that deforms the mesh) in addition to parametric freestream boundary conditions. The main idea is to first perform a transformation on the governing equations such that it is lifted to a higher-dimensional but linear underdetermined system. This enables one to extract the system matrices easily as compared to that of the original nonlinear system. The underdetermined system is closed with a set of model-dependent nonlinear constraints upon which the model reduction is finally performed. The methodology is validated on the subsonic and transonic inviscid flows past the NACA0012 and the RAE2822 airfoils with parametrized shapes. The utility of the approach is further demonstrated by applying it to two common problems in aerospace design, namely, derivative-free global optimization and parametric uncertainty quantification with Monte Carlo sampling. Overall, the methodology is shown to achieve accuracy up to 5% and computational speedup of two to three orders of magnitude relative to the full order model. Comparison against another nonintrusive model reduction method revealed that the proposed approach is more robust, accurate, and retains the consistency between the state variables.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Q1-2024 Solar Cost Benchmarks

Each year, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) and its national laboratory partners develop cost benchmarks for U.S. solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. These benchmarks track progress toward reducing solar costs and guide R&D priorities. Unlike typical studies that report only $/W, SETO uses intrinsic units (e.g., $/m² for mounting structures) to better capture how technology improvements such as module efficiency would impact system costs. This allows flexible modeling where inputs can vary significantly to assess cost sensitivity. Costs are reported in two ways: Minimum Sustainable Price (MSP): Long term, financially viable price under stable market conditions. Modeled Market Price (MMP): Actual market price, influenced by short term distortions such as tariffs or subsidies. Three national labs collect cost data from industry stakeholders, ensuring no duplication in outreach to stakeholders. Data reflects real transactions (primarily from Q1) and is weighted based on the number of sources per cost element. The PV System Cost Model (PVSCM) divides total installed system cost into eight categories: 1. Module (PV) 2. Inverter 3. Energy Storage System (ESS) 4. Structural BOS (SBOS) 5. Electrical BOS (EBOS) 6. Fieldwork 7. Office work 8. Other (developer/EPC costs) The first five are hardware costs, while the last three are soft costs. Each category includes fixed and variable cost components, where “size” depends on context (e.g., manufacturing capacity for modules vs. system capacity for installation costs). Variable costs are expressed using appropriate intrinsic units. The model reflects the owner’s upfront overnight capital cost, excluding tax credits. Tariffs and subsidies are treated as temporary market distortions affecting MMP but not MSP. PVSCM is implemented in Excel, where cost elements are aggregated into total system cost. Additional sheets handle unit conversions and operation & maintenance (O&M), with O&M costs levelized over the system’s lifetime.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Measurement of the A dependence of the ν μ charged-current quasielasticlike cross section as a function of muon and proton kinematics at ⟨E ν ⟩ ∼ 6 GeV

The first simultaneous measurements of the 𝜈 𝜇 quasielasticlike cross section on C, CH, H 2 ⁡O, Fe, and Pb targets as a function of kinematic imbalance variables in the plane transverse to the incoming neutrino direction are presented. These variables combine the muon and proton information to provide a new way to disentangle the effects of the nucleus in quasielasticlike processes. The data were obtained using a wideband 𝜈 𝜇 beam with ⟨E 𝜈 ⟩ ∼ 6 GeV. Cross-section ratios of the different target materials to CH are also shown. These measurements are used to explore the nature of the cross-section 𝐴 scaling, as well as initial and final state interaction effects. Comparisons are made to predictions from a number of commonly used neutrino Monte Carlo event generators. The range of predictions of the different models tends to cover the data but the degree and consistency of the agreement suffers in regions, and on higher 𝐴 targets, where the final state interactions are expected to be more pronounced.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Association Kinetics for Perfluorinated n -Alkyl Radicals

Radical-radical reaction channels are important in the pyrolysis and oxidation chemistry of perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). In particular, unimolecular dissociation reactions within unbranched n-perfluoroalkyl chains, and their corresponding reverse barrierless association reactions, are expected to be significant contributors to the gas-phase thermal decomposition of families of species such as perfluorinated carboxylic acids and perfluorinated sulfonic acids. Unfortunately, experimental data for these reactions are scarce and uncertain. Furthermore, obtaining reliable theoretical predictions for such reactions is a laborious and computationally intensive task. Here, in this work, the chemical kinetics of the various association/decomposition reactions producing/decomposing the C 2 -C 4 series of unbranched n-perfluoroalkanes (C 2 F 6 , C 3 F 8 , and C 4 F 10 ) are examined using state-of-the-art ab initio transition-state-theory-based master-equation calculations. The variable-reaction-coordinate transition-state theory (VRC-TST) formalism is employed in computing the microcanonical and canonical rates for the association reactions. Reaction thermochemistry is obtained via composite quantum chemistry calculations and the laddering of error-canceling reaction schemes via a connectivity-based hierarchy approach employing ANL1/ANL0-style reference energies. Lennard-Jones collision model parameters for the considered systems were estimated by a direct dynamics approach, and collisional energy transfer parameters were obtained from analogies to systems of similar size and heavy-atom connectivity. A one-dimensional master equation approach was used to convert the microcanonical rate coefficients from the VRC-TST analysis into temperature- and pressure-dependent rate constants for the association reactions and the reverse dissociation reactions. The data are reported in standardized formats for usage in comprehensive chemical kinetic models for PFAS thermal destruction.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Fatigue Reliability of Gas Turbine Engine Structures

The results of an investigation are described for fatigue reliability in engine structures. The description consists of two parts. Part 1 is for method development. Part 2 is a specific case study. In Part 1, the essential concepts and practical approaches to damage tolerance design in the gas turbine industry are summarized. These have evolved over the years in response to flight safety certification requirements. The effect of Non-Destructive Evaluation (NDE) methods on these methods is also reviewed. Assessment methods based on probabilistic fracture mechanics, with regard to both crack initiation and crack growth, are outlined. Limit state modeling techniques from structural reliability theory are shown to be appropriate for application to this problem, for both individual failure mode and system-level assessment. In Part 2, the results of a case study for the high pressure turbine of a turboprop engine are described. The response surface approach is used to construct a fatigue performance function. This performance function is used with the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) to determine the probability of failure and the sensitivity of the fatigue life to the engine parameters for the first stage disk rim of the two stage turbine. A hybrid combination of regression and Monte Carlo simulation is to use incorporate time dependent random variables. System reliability is used to determine the system probability of failure, and the sensitivity of the system fatigue life to the engine parameters of the high pressure turbine. 'ne variation in the primary hot gas and secondary cooling air, the uncertainty of the complex mission loading, and the scatter in the material data are considered.

Cruse, Thomas A.↗

Sculpting 2D Crystals via Membrane Contractions before and during Solidification

When phospholipids crystallize within the otherwise fluid membranes of giant unilamellar vesicles, the resulting molecularly thin “2D” solids exhibit great variety in their morphology evolution. For example, within membranes containing moderate amounts of the crystallizing component, crystals grow with a fixed morphology depending on vesicle size. Conversely for membranes containing large amounts of the crystallizing species, we find small compact crystals on vesicles of all sizes. However, on large vesicles, growing crystals sprout flower petals that lengthen progressively. These behaviors result from two combined mechanisms: first, like other 2D solids, the shear rigidity of phospholipid crystals renders them intolerant to morphologies with nonzero Gaussian curvature. As a result and especially at elevated membrane tension, the cost of bending elasticity is reduced at the expense of line energy by the formation of flowers as opposed to compact crystals. Second, the composition-dependent tension rise during cooling relaxes via water permeation of the membrane with a time constant scaling as R2. The amount of crystal formed for a small decrease in temperature determines this composition-dependent increase in stress from thermal contractions versus solidification. Surface Evolver computations were motivated using the predicted tension evolution to develop a processing space that maps to experimental observations for initial and growing crystal morphology. Important variable groups are identified, including a scaled ratio of bending to line energy, a vesicle-size-independent group for membrane contractions, and a time constant for stress relaxation. Though processing stresses ultimately relax, the crystal morphology persists well beyond the processing window.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

SBUV version 8.6 Retrieval Algorithm: Error Analysis and Validation Technique

SBUV version 8.6 algorithm was used to reprocess data from the Back Scattered Ultra Violet (BUV), the Solar Back Scattered Ultra Violet (SBUV) and a number of SBUV/2 instruments, which 'span a 41-year period from 1970 to 2011 (except a 5-year gap in the 1970s)[see Bhartia et al, 2012]. In the new version Daumont et al. [1992] ozone cross section were used, and new ozone [McPeters et ai, 2007] and cloud climatologies Doiner and Bhartia, 1995] were implemented. The algorithm uses the Optimum Estimation technique [Rodgers, 2000] to retrieve ozone profiles as ozone layer (partial column, DU) on 21 pressure layers. The corresponding total ozone values are calculated by summing ozone columns at individual layers. The algorithm is optimized to accurately retrieve monthly zonal mean (mzm) profiles rather than an individual profile, since it uses monthly zonal mean ozone climatology as the A Priori. Thus, the SBUV version 8.6 ozone dataset is better suited for long-term trend analysis and monitoring ozone changes rather than for studying short-term ozone variability. Here we discuss some characteristics of the SBUV algorithm and sources of error in the SBUV profile and total ozone retrievals. For the first time the Averaging Kernels, smoothing errors and weighting functions (or Jacobians) are included in the SBUV metadata. The Averaging Kernels (AK) represent the sensitivity of the retrieved profile to the true state and contain valuable information about the retrieval algorithm, such as Vertical Resolution, Degrees of Freedom for Signals (DFS) and Retrieval Efficiency [Rodgers, 2000]. Analysis of AK for mzm ozone profiles shows that the total number of DFS for ozone profiles varies from 4.4 to 5.5 out of 6-9 wavelengths used for retrieval. The number of wavelengths in turn depends on solar zenith angles. Between 25 and 0.5 hPa, where SBUV vertical resolution is the highest, DFS for individual layers are about 0.5.

Kramarova, N. A.↗

Simulated Lunar Surface Hydration Measurements using Multispectral Lidar at 3 µm

Accurately measuring the variability of spectroscopic signatures of hydration (H2O + OH) on the illuminated lunar surface at 3 µm as a function of latitude, lunar time of day, and composition is crucial to determining the generation and destruction mechanisms of OH species and understanding the global water cycle. A prime complication in analysis of the spectroscopic feature is the accurate removal of thermal emission, which can modify or even eliminate the hydration feature depending on the data processing methods used and assumptions made. An orbital multispectral lidar, with laser illumination at key diagnostic wavelengths, would provide uniform, zero-phase geometry, complete latitude and time of day coverage from a circular polar orbit, and is agnostic to the thermal state of the surface. We have performed measurement simulations of a four-wavelength multispectral lidar using spectral mixtures of hydrated mid-ocean ridge basalt (MORB) glasses and lunar regolith endmembers to assess the lidar performance in measuring hydration signatures on the lunar surface. Our results show a feasible system with wavelengths at 1.5 µm, 2.65 µm, 2.8 µm, and 3.1 µm can measure lunar hydration with a precision of 52 ppm (1σ) or better. These results, combined with the uniform measurement capabilities of multispectral lidar make it a valuable spectroscopic technique for elucidating mechanisms of OH/H2O generation, migration, and destruction.

D. R. Cremons↗

A solution framework for linear PDE-constrained mixed-integer problems

Abstract We present a general numerical solution method for control problems with state variables defined by a linear PDE over a finite set of binary or continuous control variables. We show empirically that a naive approach that applies a numerical discretization scheme to the PDEs to derive constraints for a mixed-integer linear program (MILP) leads to systems that are too large to be solved with state-of-the-art solvers for MILPs, especially if we desire an accurate approximation of the state variables. Our framework comprises two techniques to mitigate the rise of computation times with increasing discretization level: First, the linear system is solved for a basis of the control space in a preprocessing step. Second, certain constraints are just imposed on demand via the IBM ILOG CPLEX feature of a lazy constraint callback. These techniques are compared with an approach where the relations obtained by the discretization of the continuous constraints are directly included in the MILP. We demonstrate our approach on two examples: modeling of the spread of wildfire and the mitigation of water contamination. In both examples the computational results demonstrate that the solution time is significantly reduced by our methods. In particular, the dependence of the computation time on the size of the spatial discretization of the PDE is significantly reduced.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Deep learning for time series forecasting: a survey of recent advances

Time series forecasting plays a critical role in numerous real-world applications, such as finance, healthcare, transportation, and scientific computing. In recent years, deep learning has become a powerful tool for modeling complex temporal patterns and improving forecasting accuracy. This survey provides an overview of recent deep learning approaches for time series forecasting, involving various architectures including RNNs, CNNs, GNNs, transformers, large language models, MLP-based models, and diffusion models. We first identify key challenges in the field, such as temporal dependency, efficiency, and cross-variable dependency, which drive the development of forecasting techniques. Then, the general advantages and limitations of each architecture are discussed to contextualize their adaptation in time series forecasting. Furthermore, we highlight promising design trends like multi-scale modeling, decomposition, and frequency-domain techniques, which are shaping the future of the field. This paper serves as a compact reference for researchers and practitioners seeking to understand the current landscape and future trajectory of deep learning in time series forecasting.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Efficient generation and amplification of intense vortex and vector laser pulses via strongly-coupled stimulated Brillouin scattering in plasmas

The past decade has seen tremendous progress in the production and utilization of vortex and vector laser pulses. Although both are considered as structured light beams, the vortex lasers have helical phase fronts and phase singularities, while the vector lasers have spatially variable polarization states and polarization singularities. In contrast to the vortex pulses that carry orbital angular momentum (OAM), the vector laser pulses have a complex spin angular momentum (SAM) and OAM coupling. Despite many potential applications enabled by such pulses, the generation of high-power/-intensity vortex and vector beams remains challenging. Here, we demonstrate using theory and three-dimensional simulations that the strongly-coupled stimulated Brillouin scattering (SC-SBS) process in plasmas can be used as a promising amplification technique with up to 65% energy transfer efficiency from the pump beam to the seed beam for both vortex and vector pulses. We also show that SC-SBS is strongly polarization-dependent in plasmas, enabling an all-optical polarization control of the amplified seed beam. Additionally, the interaction of such structured lasers with plasmas leads to various angular momentum couplings and decouplings that produce intense new light structures with controllable OAM and SAM. This scheme paves the way for novel optical devices such as plasma-based amplifiers and light field manipulators.

Physics↗

The future of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation: using large ensembles to illuminate time-varying responses and inter-model differences

Future changes in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are uncertain, both because future projections differ between climate models and because the large internal variability of ENSO clouds the diagnosis of forced changes in observations and individual climate model simulations. By leveraging 14 single model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs), we robustly isolate the time-evolving response of ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) variability to anthropogenic forcing from internal variability in each SMILE. We find nonlinear changes in time in many models and considerable inter-model differences in projected changes in ENSO and the mean-state tropical Pacific zonal SST gradient. We demonstrate a linear relationship between the change in ENSO SST variability and the tropical Pacific zonal SST gradient, although forced changes in the tropical Pacific SST gradient often occur later in the 21st century than changes in ENSO SST variability, which can lead to departures from the linear relationship. Single-forcing SMILEs show a potential contribution of anthropogenic forcing (aerosols and greenhouse gases) to historical changes in ENSO SST variability, while the observed historical strengthening of the tropical Pacific SST gradient sits on the edge of the model spread for those models for which single-forcing SMILEs are available. Our results highlight the value of SMILEs for investigating time-dependent forced responses and inter-model differences in ENSO projections. The nonlinear changes in ENSO SST variability found in many models demonstrate the importance of characterizing this time-dependent behavior, as it implies that ENSO impacts may vary dramatically throughout the 21st century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modal equations for cellular convection

We expand the fluctuating flow variables of Boussinesq convection in the planform functions of linear theory. Our proposal is to consider a drastic truncation of this expansion as a possible useful approximation scheme for studying cellular convection. With just one term included, we obtain a fairly simple set of equations which reproduces some of the qualitative properties of cellular convection and whose steady-state form has already been derived by Roberts (1966). This set of 'modal equations' is analyzed at slightly supercritical and at very high Rayleigh numbers. In the latter regime the Nusselt number varies with Rayleigh number just as in the mean-field approximation with one horizontal scale when the boundaries are rigid. However, the Nusselt number now depends also on the Prandtl number in a way that seems compatible with experiment. The chief difficulty with the approach is the absence of a deductive scheme for deciding which planforms should be retained in the truncated expansion.

Gough, D. O.↗

Precise measurement of the tt¯ production cross-section and lepton differential distributions in eμ dilepton events from s=13TeVpp collisions with the ATLAS detector

The inclusive top quark pair (tt¯$$t\bar{t}$$) cross-section σtt¯$$\sigma _{t\bar{t}}$$ has been measured in proton–proton collisions at s=13TeV$$\sqrt{s}=13\,\text {TeV}$$, using 140fb-1$$140\,{\text {fb}^{-1}} $$ of data collected by the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider. Using events with an opposite-charge eμ$$e\mu $$ pair and b-tagged jets, the cross-section is measured to be: σtt¯=829.3±1.3(stat)±8.0(syst)±7.3(lumi)±1.9(beam)pb,$$\begin{aligned} \sigma _{t\bar{t}} & = 829.3\pm 1.3\,\mathrm {(stat)}\ \pm 8.0\,\mathrm {(syst)}\ \pm 7.3\,\mathrm {(lumi)}\ \\ & \quad \pm 1.9\,\mathrm {(beam)}\,\textrm{pb}, \end{aligned}$$where the uncertainties reflect the limited size of the data sample, experimental and theoretical systematic effects, the integrated luminosity, and the proton beam energy, giving a total uncertainty of 1.3%. The result is used to determine the top quark pole mass via the dependence of the predicted cross-section on mtpole$${m_{t}^\textrm{pole}}$$, giving mtpole=172.8-1.7+1.5$${m_{t}^\textrm{pole}}=172.8^{+1.5}_{-1.7}$$ GeV$$\text {GeV}$$. The same event sample is used to measure absolute and normalised differential cross-sections for the tt¯→eμνν¯bb¯$$t\bar{t} \rightarrow e\mu u \bar{ u }b\bar{b} $$ process as a function of single-lepton and dilepton kinematic variables. Complementary measurements of eμbb¯$$e\mu b\bar{b} $$ production, treating both tt¯$$t\bar{t}$$ and Wt events as signal, are also provided. Both sets of differential cross-sections are compared to the predictions of various Monte Carlo event generators, demonstrating that the state-of-the-art generators Powheg MiNNLO and Powhegbb4l describe the data better than Powheghvq.

Aad, G↗

An Initial Microstructurally Informed Model of High Burnup Structure Formation in UO 2 Fuel

The microstructure of a UO 2 fuel pellet changes as burnup increases, impacting fuel performance. Predicting and characterizing high burnup structure (HBS) and dark zone formation is a key part of supporting burnup limit extensions for light water reactors. This paper describes a model developed through fitting radially resolved pellet data obtained from recently published microstructural characterization data. The model predicts grain size and grain character, in addition to pore density and size, with fitting dependencies on power history variables. Separately fitting power history variables to microstructural parameters allows for insight into the underlying physical phenomena for future model development. Additionally, experimental data have been correlated to an HBS fraction to facilitate the development of a model capable of predicting a total fuel restructured fraction at the engineering scale. In conclusion, this two-step approach provides a coupling from reactor power history to microstructural data to fractional HBS and creates a basis to model HBS-dependent parameters in a fuel performance code.

High burnup structure↗

Symmetry-dependent ultrafast manipulation of nanoscale magnetic domains

Symmetry is a powerful concept in physics, but its applicability to far-from-equilibrium states is still being understood. Recent attention has focused on how far-from-equilibrium states lead to spontaneous symmetry breaking. Conversely, ultrafast optical pumping can be used to drastically change the energy landscape and quench the magnetic order parameter in magnetic systems. Here, we find a distinct symmetry-dependent ultrafast behaviour by use of ultrafast x-ray scattering from magnetic patterns with varying degrees of isotropic and anisotropic symmetry. After pumping with an optical laser, the scattered intensity reveals a radial shift exclusive to the isotropic component and exhibits a faster recovery time from quenching for the anisotropic component. These features arise even when both symmetry components are concurrently measured, suggesting a correspondence between the excitation and the magnetic order symmetry. Our results underline the importance of symmetry as a critical variable to manipulate the magnetic order in the ultrafast regime.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗