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At least 667 records · Page 37

Modeling Electric Vehicle Charging Load Using Origin-Destination Data

The accelerating adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) poses challenges to the power grid, necessitating precise representation of mobility patterns for effective infrastructure upgrades. Traditional simulation-based charging demand estimation faces limitations in generating trip chains reflective of actual travel patterns without complex network modeling. Hence, an innovative agent-based trip chain generation model is introduced to overcome these challenges. Drawing from the National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) and the NextGen NHTS origin-destination add-on data for Clarke County, Georgia, this study proposes a simulation method capturing both temporal and spatial mobility patterns without relying on extensive network topology data. The resulting trip chains predict EV charging load at the Census Block Group level, validated with a 1.03 correlation to actual trip counts, affirming their reflective accuracy. Two charging scenarios, residential-only and charging-everywhere, reveal distinct demand profiles. The charging-everywhere scenario aligns closely with the trip profile, while the residential-only scenario exhibits an afternoon peak slightly surpassing the former. This study contributes a data-driven charging demand estimation methodology, offering critical insights for grid resiliency planning amid the evolving landscape of EV adoption.

Pan, Melrose↗

Link Scheduling in Satellite Networks via Machine Learning Over Riemannian Manifolds

Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites play a crucial role in enhancing global connectivity, serving a complementary solution to existing terrestrial systems. In wireless networks, scheduling is a vital process that allocates time-frequency resources to users for interference management. However, LEO satellite networks face significant challenges in scheduling their links towards ground users due to the satellites’ mobility and overlapping coverage. This paper addresses the dynamic link scheduling problem in LEO satellite networks by considering spatio-temporal correlations introduced by the satellites’ movements. The first step in the proposed solution involves modeling the network over Riemannian manifolds, thanks to their representation as symmetric positive definite matrices. We introduce two machine learning (ML)-based link scheduling techniques that model the dynamic evolution of satellite positions and link conditions over time and space. To accurately predict satellite link states, we present a recurrent neural network (RNN) over Riemannian manifolds, which captures spatio-temporal characteristics over time. Furthermore, we introduce a separate model, the convolutional neural network (CNN) over Riemannian manifolds, which captures geometric relationships between satellites and users by extracting spatial features from the network topology across all links. Simulation results demonstrate that both RNN and CNN over Riemannian manifolds deliver comparable performance to the fractional programming-based link scheduling (FPLinQ) benchmark. Remarkably, unlike other ML-based models that require extensive training data, both models only need 30 training samples to achieve over 99% of the sum rate while maintaining similar computational complexity relative to the benchmark.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Reflection and transmission of electromagnetic pulses at a planar dielectric interface -- theory and quantum lattice simulations

There is considerable interest in the application of quantum information science to advance computations in plasma physics. A particular point of curiosity is whether it is possible to take advantage of quantum computers to speed up numerical simulations relative to conventional computers. Many of the topics in fusion plasma physics are classical in nature. In order to implement them on quantum computers it will require couching a classical problem in the language of quantum mechanics. Electromagnetic waves are routinely used in fusion experiments to heat a plasma or to generate currents in the plasma. The propagation of electromagnetic waves is described by Maxwell equations with an appropriate description of the plasma as a dielectric medium. Before advancing to the tensor dielectric of a magnetized plasma, this paper considers electromagnetic wave propagation in a one-dimensional inhomogeneous scalar dielectric. The classic theory of scattering of plane electromagnetic waves at a planar interface, separating two different dielectric media, leads to Fresnel equations for reflection and transmission coefficients. In contrast to plane waves, this paper is on the reflection and transmission of a spatially confined electromagnetic pulse. Following an analytical formulation for the scattering of a Gaussian pulse, it is deduced that the maximum transmission coefficient for a pulse is $\sqrt{n_2/n_1}$ times that for a plane wave; the incident and transmitted pulses propagating in dielectric media with refractive indices $n_1$ and $n_2$, respectively. The analytical theory is complemented by numerical simulations using a quantum lattice algorithm for Maxwell equations. The algorithm, based on the Riemann-Silberstein-Weber representation of the electromagnetic fields and expressed in term of qubits, is an interleaved sequence of entangling operators at each lattice site and unitary streaming operators which transmit information from one site to an adjacent lattice site. Besides substantiating results from the theory for Gaussian pulses, numerical simulations show their validity for non-Gaussian pulses. Apart from their time-asymptotic forms, the simulations display an interplay between the incident, reflected, and transmitted pulses in the vicinity of the transition region between two dielectric media.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Inter-annual variation of tropical cyclones simulated by GEOS-5 AGCM with modified convection scheme

The Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) global climate model with a 50-km horizontal resolution is forced by observed sea surface temperature (SST) to examine the fidelity of the seasonal-mean and inter-annual variation of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific (WNP) and the North Atlantic (NATL). The standard Relaxed Arakawa Schubert (RAS) deep convection scheme is modified to improve the representation of TCs, where the scheme implements a stochastic limit of the cumulus entrainment rate. The modification drives mid- and upper-tropospheric cooling and low- to mid-tropospheric drying in the background state, which tends to increase atmospheric instability. This enables the model to increase convective variability on an intra-seasonal timescale and improve the simulation of intense storms. Five-member ensemble runs with the modified RAS scheme for 12 years (1998–2009) exhibit realistic spatial distributions in the climatological-mean TC development area and their pathways over WNP and NATL. The GCM is able to reproduce the inter-annual variation of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) by prescribing yearly varying observed SST even though the individual TC intensity is still underpredicted. A sensitivity of TC activity to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase is also reproduced realistically over WNP in terms of the spatial pattern changes in the main development region and TC pathways. However, the model exhibits a notable deficiency in NATL in reproducing the observed inter-annual variation of TC activity and the sensitivity to the ENSO.

accumulated cyclone energy↗

On the implementation of a class of upwind schemes for system of hyperbolic conservation laws

The relative computational effort among the spatially five point numerical flux functions of Harten, van Leer, and Osher and Chakravarthy is explored. These three methods typify the design principles most often used in constructing higher than first order upwind total variation diminishing (TVD) schemes. For the scalar case the difference in operation count between any two algorithms may be very small and yet the operation count for their system counterparts might be vastly different. The situation occurs even though one starts with two different yet equivalent representations for the scalar case.

Yee, H. C.↗

Tactile discrimination and representations of texture, shape, and softness

We present here some of the salient results on the tactual discriminabilities of human subjects obtained through psychophysical experiments, and the associated peripheral neural codes obtained through electrophysiological recordings from monkey single nerve fibers. Humans can detect the presence of a 2 micron high single dot on a smooth glass plate stroked on the skin, based on the responses of Meissner type rapidly adapting fibers (RAs). They can also detect a 0.06 micron high grating on the plate, owing to the response of Pacinian corpuscle fibers. Among all the possible representations of the shapes of objects, the surface curvature distribution seems to be the most relevant for tactile sensing. Slowly adapting fibers respond to both the change and rate of change of curvature of the skin surface at the most sensitive spot in their receptive fields, whereas RAs respond only to the rate of change of curvature. Human discriminability of compliance of objects depends on whether the object has a deformable or rigid surface. When the surface is deformable, the spatial pressure distribution within the contact region is dependent on object compliance, and hence information from cutaneous mechanoreceptors is sufficient for discrimination of subtle differences in compliance. When the surface is rigid, kinesthetic information is necessary for discrimination, and the discriminability is much poorer than that for objects with deformable surfaces.

Srinivasan, M. A.↗

Predicting nonresonant pressure-driven MHD modes in equilibria with low magnetic shear

Nonresonant internal modes can be difficult to anticipate as there is no resonant surface in the plasma. However, equilibria that are unstable to multiple nonresonant magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) modes may be more prone to global loss of confinement since these instabilities generate spatially extended linear displacements, potentially enhancing magnetic field line chaos via nonlinear interactions. Here, we successfully predict the unstable nonresonant pressure-driven modes for equilibria with zero shear in the plasma core, irrational q on axis, and a central pressure gradient, which is consistent with pre-crash profiles in sawtoothing tokamak plasmas in the large-aspect-ratio limit. A criterion for identifying nonresonant modes most likely to be unstable is developed from the convergents of the continued fraction representation of q 0 . A higher-order analysis of the standard Energy Principle reveals the conditions under which these modes are expected to dominate. Linear growth rate spectra, as a function of toroidal mode number (up to n = 30), calculated using the initial-value extended-MHD code, M3D-C1, recover the characteristic dependence observed for ideal infernal modes. Nonresonant modes have also been invoked in some ideal sawtooth crash models. Finally, this work provides a mechanism to predict the mode numbers of infernal modes and, potentially, the width of some post-sawtooth-crash profiles.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Statistical Estimation of Orbital Debris Populations with a Spectrum of Object Size

Orbital debris is a real concern for the safe operations of satellites. In general, the hazard of debris impact is a function of the size and spatial distributions of the debris populations. To describe and characterize the debris environment as reliably as possible, the current NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM2000) is being upgraded to a new version based on new and better quality data. The data-driven ORDEM model covers a wide range of object sizes from 10 microns to greater than 1 meter. This paper reviews the statistical process for the estimation of the debris populations in the new ORDEM upgrade, and discusses the representation of large-size (greater than or equal to 1 m and greater than or equal to 10 cm) populations by SSN catalog objects and the validation of the statistical approach. Also, it presents results for the populations with sizes of greater than or equal to 3.3 cm, greater than or equal to 1 cm, greater than or equal to 100 micrometers, and greater than or equal to 10 micrometers. The orbital debris populations used in the new version of ORDEM are inferred from data based upon appropriate reference (or benchmark) populations instead of the binning of the multi-dimensional orbital-element space. This paper describes all of the major steps used in the population-inference procedure for each size-range. Detailed discussions on data analysis, parameter definition, the correlation between parameters and data, and uncertainty assessment are included.

Xu, Y. -l↗

Validation Assessment for the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Level 4 Carbon (L4_C) Data Product Version 5

The post-launch Cal/Val phase of the SMAP mission is guided by two primary objectives for each science product team: 1) to calibrate, verify, and improve the performance of the science algorithms, and 2) validate accuracies of the science data products as specified in the SMAP Level-1 mission science requirements. Algorithm science and product maintenance activities during the SMAP extended mission phase have also involved periodic algorithm calibration and product refinements to maintain or enhance product consistency and performance as well as science utility. This report provides an assessment of the latest (Version 5) SMAP Level 4 Carbon (L4_C) product. The L4_C Version 5 (v5) global record now spans more than six years (March 2015 – present) of SMAP operations and has benefited from five major reprocessing updates to the operational product. These reprocessing events and L4_C product release updates have incorporated various algorithm refinements and calibration adjustments to account for similar refinements to the upstream GEOS land model assimilation system, SMAP brightness temperatures, and MODIS vegetation inputs used for L4_C processing. The SMAP L4_C algorithms utilize a terrestrial carbon flux model informed by daily surface and root zone soil moisture information contributed from the SMAP Level 4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product along with optical remote sensing-based (e.g. MODIS-based) land cover and canopy fractional photosynthetic active radiation (fPAR), and other ancillary biophysical data. The carbon flux model estimates global daily net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) and the component carbon fluxes, namely, vegetation gross primary production (GPP) and soil heterotrophic respiration (Rh). Other L4_C product elements include surface (~0-5 cm depth) soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and associated environmental constraints to these processes, including soil moisture-related controls on GPP and ecosystem respiration (Kimball et al. 2014, Jones et al. 2017). The L4_C product addresses SMAP carbon cycle science objectives by: 1) providing a direct link between terrestrial carbon fluxes and underlying freeze/thaw and soil moisture-related constraints to these processes, 2) documenting primary connections between terrestrial water, energy and carbon cycles, and 3) improving understanding of terrestrial carbon sink activity. The SMAP L4_C algorithms and operational product are mature and at a CEOS Validation Stage 4 level (Jackson et al. 2012) based on extensive validation of the multi-year record against a diverse array of independent benchmarks, well characterized global performance, and systematic refinements gained from five major reprocessing events. There are no Level-1 mission science requirements for the L4_C product; however, self-imposed requirements have been established focusing on NEE as the primary product field for validation, and on demonstrating L4_C accuracy and success in meeting product science requirements (Jackson et al. 2012). The other L4_C product fields also have strong utility for carbon science applications (e.g., Liu et al. 2019, Endsley et al. 2020); however, analysis of these other fields is considered secondary relative to primary validation activities focusing on NEE. The L4_C targeted accuracy requirements are to meet or exceed a mean unbiased root-mean-square error (ubRMSE, or standard deviation of the error) for NEE of 1.6 g C m-2 d-1 and 30 g C m-2 yr-1, emphasizing northern (≥45°N) boreal and arctic ecosystems; this accuracy is similar to that of tower eddy covariance measurement-based observations (Baldocchi 2008). Methods used for the latest v5 L4_C product performance and validation assessment have been established from the SMAP Cal/Val plan and previous studies (Jackson et al. 2012, Jones et al. 2017) and include: 1) consistency evaluations of the product fields against earlier product releases (version 4 or earlier); 2) comparisons of daily carbon flux estimates with independent tower eddy 4covariance measurement-based daily carbon (CO2) flux observations from core tower validation sites (CVS); and 3) consistency checks against other global carbon products, including soil carbon inventory records, global GPP records derived from tower observation upscaling methods, and satellite-based observations of canopy solar induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) as a surrogate for GPP. Metrics used to evaluate relative agreement between L4_C product fields and observational benchmarks include correlation (r-value), RMSE differences, bias and model sensitivity diagnostics. Following these validation criteria, the present report provides a validation assessment of the latest L4_C product release (v5). Detailed descriptions of the L4_C algorithm and additional global product accuracy and performance results are given elsewhere (Jones et al. 2017, Endsley et al. 2020). The v5 L4_C product replaces earlier product versions and continues to show: (i) accuracy and performance levels meeting or exceeding SMAP L4_C science requirements; (ii) improvement over the previous product version (version 4); and (iii) suitability for a diversity of science applications. Example L4_C applications from the recent literature include clarifying environmental trends and controls on the northern terrestrial carbon sink (Liu et al. 2019), diagnosing drought-related impacts on ecosystem productivity (Li et al. 2020), and regional monitoring of cropland conditions for projecting annual yields (Wurster et al. 2020). 2EXPECTED L4_C ALGORITHM AND PRODUCTPERFORMANCE The L4_C algorithm performance, including variance and uncertainty estimates of model outputs, was determined during the mission pre-launch phase through spatially explicit model sensitivity studies using available model inputs similar to those currently being used for operational production and evaluating the resulting model simulations over the observed range of northern (≥45 °N) and global conditions (Kimball et al. 2012, Entekhabi et al. 2014). The L4_C algorithm options were also evaluated during the mission prelaunch phase, including deriving canopy fPAR from lower order NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) inputs in lieu of using MODIS (MOD15) fPAR; and including an explicit model representation of boreal fire disturbance recovery impacts. These results indicated that the L4_C accuracy requirements (i.e., NEE ubRMSE ≤ 30 g C m-2 yr-1or ≤ 1.6 g C m-2 d-1) could be met from the baseline algorithms over more than 82% and 89% of global and northern vegetated land areas, respectively (Yi et al. 2013, Kimball et al. 2014). The global L4_C algorithm error budget for NEE derived during the mission prelaunch phase indicated that the estimated NEE ubRMSE uncertainty is proportional to GPP and is therefore larger in higher biomass productivity areas, including forests and croplands (Kimball et al. 2014). Likewise, NEE ubRMSE uncertainty is expected to be lower in less-productive areas, including grasslands and shrublands. Expected model NEE ubRMSE levels were also generally within targeted accuracy levels for characteristically less-productive boreal and Arctic biomes, even though relative model error as a proportion of total productivity (NEE RMSE / GPP) may be large in these areas. The estimated NEE uncertainty was lower than expected in some warmer tropical high biomass productivity areas (e.g. Amazon rainforest) because of reduced low temperature and moisture constraints to the L4_C respiration calculations so that the bulk of model uncertainty is contributed by GPP in these areas. Model NEE uncertainty in the African Congo was estimated to

SMAP↗

Regional Variations in the Diurnal Cycle of Tropical Precipitation as Represented by IMERG, ERA5, and Spaceborne Ku Radar

The diurnal cycle of precipitation is highly regional and is typically a product of multiple competing effects that can be highly localized. The diurnal cycle in high precipitation regions such as the Amazon and the Maritime Continent are of particular interest, especially due to the complex coastal effects which take place over the Maritime Continent. The high spatial and temporal resolution provided by the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission (IMERG) dataset, is used in this study to examine the fine-scale features of the diurnal cycle in these regions. Using an 18-year (2000 – 2018) record of IMERG precipitation observations, diurnal and semidiurnal phase and amplitude are calculated using a fast Fourier transform (FFT) method on precipitation averaged for each half-hour of the day at 0.1°x0.1° spatial resolution. We first introduce an objective method of identifying locations where the diurnal signals are robust and strong. Clear patterns of precipitation phase propagation with distance from shore are shown over both regions, with the diurnal phase and amplitude exhibiting a strong dependence on the distance from the coastline. Semidiurnal cycles are generally weaker than the diurnal cycle except in some isolated locations. Similar analysis is also conducted on the ERA5 reanalysis data in order to evaluate the model’s representation of the precipitation diurnal cycle. The model captures the broad scale patterns of diurnal variability but does not capture all the fine scale patterns nor the exact timing that is observed by IMERG. Comparisons are also made to a long record Ku radar dataset created by combining Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and GPM observations, thus providing an additional point of comparison for the timing of the ERA5 precipitation peak, since the timing precipitation can be different, even in between observational datasets.

L J Hayden↗

Characterization of Transport Errors in Chemical Forecasts from a Global Tropospheric Chemical Transport Model

We propose a new methodology to characterize errors in the representation of transport processes in chemical transport models. We constrain the evaluation of a global three-dimensional chemical transport model (GEOS-CHEM) with an extended dataset of carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations obtained during the Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) aircraft campaign. The TRACEP mission took place over the western Pacific, a region frequently impacted by continental outflow associated with different synoptic-scale weather systems (such as cold fronts) and deep convection, and thus provides a valuable dataset. for our analysis. Model simulations using both forecast and assimilated meteorology are examined. Background CO concentrations are computed as a function of latitude and altitude and subsequently subtracted from both the observed and the model datasets to focus on the ability of the model to simulate variability on a synoptic scale. Different sampling strategies (i.e., spatial displacement and smoothing) are applied along the flight tracks to search for systematic model biases. Statistical quantities such as correlation coefficient and centered root-mean-square difference are computed between the simulated and the observed fields and are further inter-compared using Taylor diagrams. We find no systematic bias in the model for the TRACE-P region when we consider the entire dataset (i.e., from the surface to 12 km ). This result indicates that the transport error in our model is globally unbiased, which has important implications for using the model to conduct inverse modeling studies. Using the First-Look assimilated meteorology only provides little improvement of the correlation, in comparison with the forecast meteorology. These general statements can be refined when the entire dataset is divided into different vertical domains, i.e., the lower troposphere (less than 2 km), the middle troposphere (2-6 km), and the upper troposphere (greater than 6 km). The best agreement between the observations and the model is found in the lower and middle troposphere. Downward displacements in the lower troposphere provide a better fit with the observed value, which could indicate a problem in the representation of boundary layer height in the model. Significant improvement is also found for downward and southward displacements in the upper troposphere. There are several potential sources of errors in our simulation of the continental outflow in the upper troposphere which could lead to such biases, including the location and/or the strength of deep convective cells as well as that of wildfires in Southeast Asia.

Bey, I.↗

Geometrical and topological issues in octree based automatic meshing

Finite element meshes derived automatically from solid models through recursive spatial subdivision schemes (octrees) can be made to inherit the hierarchical structure and the spatial addressability intrinsic to the underlying grid. These two properties, together with the geometric regularity that can also be built into the mesh, make octree based meshes ideally suited for efficient analysis and self-adaptive remeshing and reanalysis. The element decomposition of the octal cells that intersect the boundary of the domain is discussed. The problem, central to octree based meshing, is solved by combining template mapping and element extraction into a procedure that utilizes both constructive solid geometry and boundary representation techniques. Boundary cells that are not intersected by the edge of the domain boundary are easily mapped to predefined element topology. Cells containing edges (and vertices) are first transformed into a planar polyhedron and then triangulated via element extractor. The modeling environments required for the derivation of planar polyhedra and for element extraction are analyzed.

Saxena, Mukul↗

Assembly planning based on subassembly extraction

A method is presented for the automatic determination of assembly partial orders from a liaison graph representation of an assembly through the extraction of preferred subassemblies. In particular, the authors show how to select a set of tentative subassemblies by decomposing a liaison graph into a set of subgraphs based on feasibility and difficulty of disassembly, how to evaluate each of the tentative subassemblies in terms of assembly cost using the subassembly selection indices, and how to construct a hierarchical partial order graph (HPOG) as an assembly plan. The method provides an approach to assembly planning by identifying spatial parallelism in assembly as a means of constructing temporal relationships among assembly operations and solves the problem of finding a cost-effective assembly plan in a flexible environment. A case study of the assembly planning of a mechanical assembly is presented.

Lee, Sukhan↗

Advances in Distance-Based Hole Cuts on Overset Grids

An automatic and efficient method to determine appropriate hole cuts based on distances to the wall and donor stencil maps for overset grids is presented. A new robust procedure is developed to create a closed surface triangulation representation of each geometric component for accurate determination of the minimum hole. Hole boundaries are then displaced away from the tight grid-spacing regions near solid walls to allow grid overlap to occur away from the walls where cell sizes from neighboring grids are more comparable. The placement of hole boundaries is efficiently determined using a mid-distance rule and Cartesian maps of potential valid donor stencils with minimal user input. Application of this procedure typically results in a spatially-variable offset of the hole boundaries from the minimum hole with only a small number of orphan points remaining. Test cases on complex configurations are presented to demonstrate the new scheme.

Advances↗

Distributed Visualization Project

Distributed Visualization allows anyone, anywhere to see any simulation at any time. Development focuses on algorithms, software, data formats, data systems and processes to enable sharing simulation-based information across temporal and spatial boundaries without requiring stakeholders to possess highly-specialized and very expensive display systems. It also introduces abstraction between the native and shared data, which allows teams to share results without giving away proprietary or sensitive data. The initial implementation of this capability is the Distributed Observer Network (DON) version 3.1. DON 3.1 is available for public release in the NASA Software Store (https://software.nasa.gov/software/KSC-13775) and works with version 3.0 of the Model Process Control specification (an XML Simulation Data Representation and Communication Language) to display complex graphical information and associated Meta-Data.

Tech Port↗

Stimulus information contaminates summation tests of independent neural representations of features

Many models of visual processing assume that visual information is analyzed into separable and independent neural codes, or features. A common psychophysical test of independent features is known as a summation study, which measures performance in a detection, discrimination, or visual search task as the number of proposed features increases. Improvement in human performance with increasing number of available features is typically attributed to the summation, or combination, of information across independent neural coding of the features. In many instances, however, increasing the number of available features also increases the stimulus information in the task, as assessed by an optimal observer that does not include the independent neural codes. In a visual search task with spatial frequency and orientation as the component features, a particular set of stimuli were chosen so that all searches had equivalent stimulus information, regardless of the number of features. In this case, human performance did not improve with increasing number of features, implying that the improvement observed with additional features may be due to stimulus information and not the combination across independent features.

NASA Discipline Space Human Factors↗

Integrating Characteristic Arctic Vegetation in a Land Surface Model Improves Representation of Carbon Dynamics Across a Tundra Landscape: Modeling Archive

This modeling archive is in support of the Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) publication "Integrating Characteristic Arctic Vegetation in a Land Surface Model Improves Representation of Carbon Dynamics Across a Tundra Landscape", by Murphy et al. (2025). This archive contains model input files and outputs from landscape-scale simulations conducted using ELM, the land model component of the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), at the Council NGEE Arctic field site (Council Road mile marker 71) on Alaska’s Seward Peninsula. Input data and model output from two sets of ELM simulations are provided. The first set of simulations were conducted with the two default ELM Arctic plant functional types (PFTs; broadleaf deciduous boreal shrub and a C3 grass) and the second set of simulations were conducted with a set of nine Arctic-specific PFTs including nonvascular mosses and lichens, graminoids, forbs, evergreen dwarf shrubs, three height classes of deciduous shrubs (dwarf, low, and low to tall), and deciduous alder shrubs (Sulman et al., 2021). Parameter names and major parameter changes in the Arctic-specific PFT configuration are described in Sulman et al. (2021) and archived in the Sulman et al. (2021) dataset (see below). Simulations were spatially explicit, covering an approximately 6.4X3.3 km domain at the Council site with a spatial resolution of 100 m for a total of 2,112 simulated grid cells under each ELM PFT configuration. The modeling archive contains meteorological forcing (seven *.nc files and one *.txt file), a domain definition file (one *.nc files), land surface configuration files (two *.nc files), parameter files (two *.nc files), annual ELM output files spanning 1980-2014 (68 *.nc files), and a User’s Guide (*pdf file). Additional information on the provided files is in the “Modeling Archive Contents” section of the User’s Guide. Model outputs are aggregated to the column scale (i.e. PFT-specific outputs are not provided here).

Murphy, Bailey [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000203995221)↗

Biogeophysical Effects of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change Not Detectable in Warmest Month

Land-use and land-cover changes (hereafter simply “land use”) alter climates biogeophysically by affecting surface fluxes of energy and water. Yet, near-surface temperature responses to land use across observational versus model-based studies and spatial-temporal scales can be inconsistent. Here we assess the prevalence of the historical land use signal of daily maximum temperatures averaged over the warmest month of the year (t LU ) using regularized optimal fingerprinting for detection and attribution. We use observations from the Climatic Research Unit and Berkeley Earth alongside historical simulations with and without land use from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to reconstruct an experiment representing the effects of land use on climate. To assess the signal of land use at spatially resolved continental and global scales, we aggregate all input data across reference regions and continents, respectively. At both scales, land use does not comprise a significantly detectable set of forcings for two of four Earth system models and their multimodel mean. Furthermore, using a principal component analysis, we find that t LU is mostly composed of the nonlocal effects of land use rather than its local effects. These findings show that, at scales relevant for climate attribution, uncertainties in Earth system model representations of land use are too high relative to the effects of internal variability to confidently assess land use.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗