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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2024

PV-BESS DC-Series Integration for Regulated DC Systems

DC-series integration introduces a novel approach to seamlessly integrate a solar photovoltaic (PV) array and a battery energy storage (BES) in series. This system, referred to as the PV-integrated battery energy storage system—dc series (PVBESS-DCS), simplifies integration and enhances power density by leveraging the inherent voltage-source characteristics of batteries and adopting the concept of partial power processing. However, addressing voltage variations of a PV array and a BES under different operational conditions remains a challenge to apply the PVBESS-DCS to a regulated dc system, where the dc-bus voltage is fixed. This article proposes a PVBESS-DCS solution tailored for regulated dc systems. Within this framework, we present a controllable series voltage source compensating for the voltage differences between the PV and BES sources and the dc bus. Thus, the system can perform PV maximum power point tracking and curtailment control while charging and discharging BES and connected to a regulated dc bus. Additionally, we present a single-stage multiport partial power processing dc–dc converter designed for the proposed PVBESS-DCS. It utilizes a triple active bridge dc–dc converter topology. Finally, this article presents operating principles, control strategies, simulation results, and experimental findings of the proposed PVBESS-DCS for regulated dc systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Toward Improved Charge Separation through Conformational Control in Copper Coordination Complexes

The continued development of solar energy as a renewable resource necessitates the design and study of new approaches to sustaining photodriven charge separation (CS). To this end, we present a bioinspired approach in which triggered conformational changes are used to control electron transfer (ET) events. We report, photo-induced conformational rearrangements of a ligand are translated into changes in the coordination geometry and environment about a bound metal ion. Taking advantage of the differential coordination properties of Cu I and Cu II , these dynamics facilitate intramolecular ET from Cu I to the ligand to create a CS state. The synthesis and photophysical characterization of CuCl(dpaa R ) (dpaa = dipicolylaminoacetophenone, with R = H and OMe) is presented. These ligands incorporate a fluorophore into their framework that gives rise to a twisted intramolecular charge transfer (TICT) excited state. Excited state ligand twisting provides a tetragonal coordination geometry capable of capturing Cu II in the CS state when an internal ortho-OMe binding site is present (as in dpaaOMe). We employ NMR, IR, EPR, and optical spectroscopies, X-ray diffraction, and electrochemical methods to establish the ground state properties of the Cu I and Cu II complexes. We then investigate the photophysical dynamics of these Cu I complexes via time-resolved photoluminescence (TR-PL), and optical transient absorption (OTA) spectroscopies. We show that relative to controls lacking a TICT-active ligand, the lifetime of the CS state is enhanced ~1000-fold. Further, the presence of the ortho-OMe substituent greatly enhances the lifetime of the TICT* state and biases the coordination environment toward Cu II . The presence of Cu I decreases photoinduced degradation from 14 to <2% but does not result in significant quenching via ET. Factors affecting CS in these systems are discussed, laying the groundwork for our strategy toward solar energy conversion.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploring the Photophysics of N-Type Polymer N2200

The polymer interphase is a complex environment comprised of polymer chains, solvent molecules, and electrolyte ions. However, the microenvironments that these ingredients produce is both poorly-understood and difficult to investigate given the system's inherent structural heterogeneity. Nonetheless, a fundamental understanding of the structure, electrochemical behavior, and excited-state dynamics is a key prerequisite to optimizing devices based on such a system - for instance, photoelectrochemical cells for the direct, light-driven production of solar hydrogen, which may minimize efficiency losses compared to sequential light harvesting and electrochemical hydrogen production in separate but linked devices. This work combines transient absorption (TA) spectroscopy, which is a powerful tool for the observation of a variety of excited states on a femto- to microsecond timescale, with time-resolved microwave conductivity (TRMC) spectroscopy, which selectively probes the dynamics of free charge carriers (FC), of a blend of a donor polymer (PTB7-Th) and acceptor polymer (N2200) in a bulk heterojunction. Initial results indicate an extension of FC lifetime and homogenization of the microenvironment on a whole-film level, not just at the surface of the polymer; however, many questions are still under active investigation, including the changes in energy of the involved polaron states, effective conjugation length, FC mobility and migration distance, etc. Additional experiments regarding the photoinitiated behavior of the blend in different environments and on different timescales are ongoing.

charge recombination↗
DOE OSTI2021

Carrier gradients and the role of charge selective contacts in lateral heterojunction all back contact perovskite solar cells

Realizing photovoltaic devices that achieve the full potential of the metal halide perovskite material will require improved insight regarding the role of selective contacts and how key interfaces operate when mobile defects are present. However, measuring interface properties in typical device stacks where the perovskite layer is thin and sandwiched between two contacts has been a challenge. Here, we fabricate p-i-n and p-n lateral heterojunctions with nickel oxide/titanium oxide all back contacts, permitting us to employ a comprehensive analysis approach, including ultraviolet and X-ray photoemission spectroscopy (UPS/XPS), angle-resolved X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS), Kelvin probe force microscopy (KPFM), surface photovoltage (SPV), hyperspectral imaging (HSI), and time-resolved fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy (TR-FLIM) to discern the role of selective contacts. Specifically, we tune the selectivity of the contacts, changing the gradient in the carrier concentration across the surface of the active layer, which is connected to carrier extraction at the buried interface, and thus the device functionality.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Interconnection Cost Analysis in ISO-New England

Electric transmission system operators (ISOs, RTOs, or utilities) require new large generators seeking to connect to the grid to undergo a series of impact studies before they can be built. This process establishes what new transmission equipment or upgrades may be needed before a project can connect to the system and assigns the costs of that equipment. Berkeley Lab has collected interconnection cost data for 194 projects in New England from interconnection studies performed between 2010 and 2021. Project-level cost summary data are available for download on this page. We find: -Interconnection costs have grown over time, especially for projects that withdraw. -Interconnection costs are highest for onshore wind, followed by solar and storage. Natural gas and offshore wind projects tend to cost less to interconnect, in comparison. -Economies of scale exist for solar and possibly storage projects, but not for other resource types. -Wind and solar projects requesting capacity network resource interconnection service have higher interconnection costs, despite being evaluated using the same interconnection standard in the analyzed studies. -Low and high interconnection costs can be found throughout the ISO-NE footprint. -Costs are split fairly evenly between investments at the point of interconnection and within the broader network for active and withdrawn projects, while complete projects incur most costs at the point of interconnection.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Adaptive Dynamic Agrivoltaic Production Tool

In the pursuit of sustainable and land-use-efficient solutions to mitigate climate change, the concept of agrivoltaic systems, which integrate renewable solar energy into conventional agriculture, has emerged. By deploying solar arrays above the crop field, these systems are designed to maximize the land use efficiency or, in other words, the value of generated electricity and crop yield per unit area. While power generation has been extensively studied and modeled, research gaps persist in simulating crop performance [1], [2]. Early studies utilized generalized relationships between photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and crop production. However, significant variations in crop performance due to other factors, such as weather and soil, can compromise the reliability of the results [2]. Current studies focus on comprehensive process-based crop models, such as DSSAT [3] and STICS [4]. Nevertheless, the validation status varies greatly across different species, and the validation process requires well-designed experiments to adjust specific processes. For less common shade-tolerant crops with limited validation, such as cabbage, physiological behaviors can be difficult to predict [5]. This study investigates an adaptive dynamic agrivoltaic production tool (ADAPT) with few data requirements and minimal on-site calibration that can be easily applied in real applications.

Long, Qirui↗
DOE OSTI2021

Metamorphic Tunnel Junctions Grown Via MOCVD Designed for GaAs 0.75 P 0.25 /Si Tandem Solar Cells

A high-performance metamorphic Al 0.2 Ga 0.8 As 0.75 P 0.25 /GaAs 0.75 P 0.25 heterojunction tunnel junction structure was developed for application to monolithic epitaxial GaAs 0.75 P 0.25 /Si 1.7 eV/1.1 eV bandgap tandem solar cells produced via metal-organic chemical vapor deposition. Doping optimization focused on both bulk doping concentrations and mitigating the transient incorporation effects that otherwise causes non-abrupt doping profiles in the Te doped layer. Furthermore, these efforts resulted in a fully-relaxed metamorphic tunnel diode at the target lattice constant having a peak tunneling current density (JP) of 279.1 A·cm –2 and a zero-bias resistance area product (RA) of 3.0×10 –4 Ω·cm 2 . After post-growth annealing to emulate the thermal load of the GaAs 0.75 P 0.25 top cell growth and elimination of the performance enhancing carbon activation anneal, the device achieved JP = 13.1 A·cm –2 and RA = 1.5×10 –3 Ω·cm 2 . These worst-case values are very promising as they enable the operation of GaAs 0.75 P 0.25 /Si tandems under one-sun AM1.5G illumination with negligible series resistance and at AM1.5D concentrations up to 240 suns with only 0.1% absolute efficiency loss.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Universal and versatile morphology engineering via hot fluorous solvent soaking for organic bulk heterojunction

After explosive growth of efficiency in organic solar cells (OSCs), achieving ideal morphology of bulk heterojunction remains crucial and challenging for advancing OSCs into consumer market. Herein, by utilizing the amphiphobic nature and temperature-dependent miscibility of fluorous solvent, hot fluorous solvent soaking method is developed to optimize the morphology with various donor/acceptor combinations including polymer/small-molecule, all-polymer and all-small-molecule systems. By immersing blend film into hot fluorous solvent which is utilized as liquid medium with better thermal conductivity, the molecular reorganization is accelerated. Furthermore, fluorous solvent can be miscible with the residue of chloroform and chloronaphthalene above upper critical solution temperature. This mixed solvent diffuses around inside the active layer and selectively promotes molecular reorganization, leading to optimized morphology. Compared to widely-used thermal annealing, this approach processed under mild conditions achieves superior photovoltaic performance, indicating the practicality and universality for morphological optimization in OSCs as well as other optoelectronic devices.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Kinetically versus thermodynamically controlled factors governing elementary pathways of GaP(111) surface oxidation

GaP and related III-V semiconductors have attracted interest as high-efficiency photoelectrochemical electrodes for solar water splitting. However, their efficacy is linked to the presence, identity, and integrity of native surface oxides, which are structurally and chemically complex and evolve during operation. Using ambient pressure X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (APXPS) coupled with ab initio simulations, we track key chemical motifs expressed during evolution of GaP(111) surface oxides, their associated reaction kinetics, and their correlations with electronic properties. We identify two distinct thermal regimes corresponding to kinetically and thermodynamically controlled oxidation. Below 600 K, exposure to O2 generates kinetically facile Ga-O-Ga configurations, whereas higher temperatures cause activated oxygen to insert into Ga–P bonds as part of a thermodynamically driven transformation into a complex, heterogeneous 3D network of surface POx (1≤x ≤ 4) groups and Ga2O3 species, the latter of which eventually dominates upon depletion of surface phosphorus. Here our study highlights the critical competition between kinetic and thermodynamic factors during GaP oxidation, yielding insights for fabricating stable III-P-based photoelectrodes with precisely engineered surface properties.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hybrid-RL-MPC4CLR (Hybird-Reinforcement-Learning-Model-Predictive-Control-for-Reserve-Policy-Assisted-Critical-Load-Restoration-in-Distribution-Grids)

Hybrid-RL-MPC4CLR was developed as a hybrid controller for active distribution grid critical load restoration, combining deep reinforcement learning (RL) and model predictive control (MPC) aiming at maximizing total restored load following an extreme event. The RL determines a policy for quantifying operating reserve requirements, thereby hedging against uncertainty, while the MPC models grid operations incorporating the RL policy actions (i.e., reserve requirements), renewable (wind and solar) power predictions, and load demand forecasts. The developers formulated the reserve requirement determination problem as a sequential decision-making problem based on the Markov Decision Process (MDP) and design an RL learning environment based on the OpenAI Gym framework and MPC simulation. The RL agent reward and MPC objective function aim to maximize and monotonically increase total restored load and minimize load shedding and renewable power curtailment. The software is developed using various software packages in Python. The MPC's optimal power flow (OPF) model is implemented using the Pyomo package, the RL simulation environment is implemented using the MPC simulation with various scenarios of renewable energy and load demand profiles and power outage beginning times, based on the OpenAI Gym framework. The RL agent training is performed using the RLlib Ray package. The RL algorithm is trained offline using historical forecasts of renewable generation and load demand profiles. Simulation analysis and performance tests are conducted using a modified IEEE 13-bus distribution test feeder containing wind turbine, photovoltaic, microturbine, and battery.

Eseye, Abinet Tesfaye↗
DOE OSTI2022

Photosynthesis phenology, as defined by solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence, is overestimated by vegetation indices in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere

Vegetation phenology is highly sensitive to climate change, although the data and methods used to estimate key phenological states can influence this sensitivity. Because of its direct relation to leaf photosynthetic carbon uptake, remotely sensed solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) can provide new insight assessing changes in vegetation phenology. In this work, we investigated the potential of using a SIF time series product named contiguous SIF (CSIF) to estimate spring, summer, and autumn phenology in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere (>30°N) and compared the results with those based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for the period 2001–2018. Overall, we found similar spatial patterns in phenological states. However, specific dates of key phenological events differed when using CSIF vs. MODIS NDVI data. NDVI data indicated that the growing season started earlier (by 10.1 days on average) and ended later (11.5 days on average) relative to CSIF data. This implies that actual periods for photosynthetic activity are shorter (by 21.6 days on average) than those estimated from vegetation indices more directly related to changes in canopy structure. These large differences between results from NDVI and that from CSIF suggest that vegetation indices such as NDVI seem to overestimate the period for active photosynthesis over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere. Furthermore, while phenology of the early growing season is dominated by temperature for both NDVI and CSIF data, phenology of the late growing season is mainly controlled by temperature for NDVI but by precipitation for CSIF. Our findings were further confirmed by other SIF (GOME-2 SIF) and vegetation index (MODIS EVI) datasets. Phenology modes in Earth system modelling are often parameterized using leaf unfolding and senescence from either station or satellite observations. Our results imply that canopy structure-based parameterization schemes may have overestimated photosynthesis active period, and thus productivity responses. We conclude that SIF data offers a novel and unique approach for assessing phenological change - one that is more directly tied to the carbon cycle and how it is being influenced by climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hydrogen-induced degradation dynamics in silicon heterojunction solar cells via machine learning

Abstract Among silicon-based solar cells, heterojunction cells hold the world efficiency record. However, their market acceptance is hindered by an initial 0.5% per year degradation of their open circuit voltage which doubles the overall cell degradation rate. Here, we study the performance degradation of crystalline-Si/amorphous-Si:H heterojunction stacks. First, we experimentally measure the interface defect density over a year, the primary driver of the degradation. Second, we develop SolDeg, a multiscale, hierarchical simulator to analyze this degradation by combining Machine Learning, Molecular Dynamics, Density Functional Theory, and Nudged Elastic Band methods with analytical modeling. We discover that the chemical potential for mobile hydrogen develops a gradient, forcing the hydrogen to drift from the interface, leaving behind recombination-active defects. We find quantitative correspondence between the calculated and experimentally determined defect generation dynamics. Finally, we propose a reversed Si-density gradient architecture for the amorphous-Si:H layer that promises to reduce the initial open circuit voltage degradation from 0.5% per year to 0.1% per year.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Synergy of Liquid-Crystalline Small-Molecule and Polymeric Donors Delivers Uncommon Morphology Evolution and 16.6% Efficiency Organic Photovoltaics

Achieving an ideal morphology is an imperative avenue for enhancing key parameters toward high-performing organic solar cells (OSCs). Among a myriad of morphological-control methods, the strategy of incorporating a third component with structural similarity and crystallinity difference to construct ternary OSCs has emerged as an effective approach to regulate morphology. A nematic liquid-crystalline benzodithiophene terthiophene rhodamine (BTR) molecule, which possesses the same alkylthio-thienyl-substituted benzo moiety but obviously stronger crystallinity compared to classical medium-bandgap polymeric donor PM6, is employed as a third component to construct ternary OSCs based on a PM6:BTR:Y6 system. The doping of BTR (5 wt%) is found to be enough to improve the OSC morphology—significantly enhancing the crystallinity of the photoactive layer while slightly reducing the donor/acceptor phase separation scale simultaneously. Rarely is such a morphology evolution reported. It positively affects the electronic properties of the device—prolongs the carrier lifetime, shortens the photocurrent decay time, facilitates exciton dissociation, charge transport, and collection, and ultimately boosts the power conversion efficiency from 15.7% to 16.6%. This result demonstrates that the successful synergy of liquid-crystalline small-molecule and polymeric donors delicately adjusts the active-layer morphology and refines device performance, which brings vibrancy to the OSC research field.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Boosting photovoltaic performance of ternary organic solar cells by integrating a multi-functional guest acceptor

Constructing ternary structure is one of the most effective design strategies to break the efficiency ceiling of traditional binary organic solar cells (OSCs). Here, a new Y-series non-fullerene acceptor (Y-T) featuring 1,3-diethyl-2-thiobarbituric acid (DTBA) end groups is developed as a third component for the classical PM6:Y6 binary system. The champion power conversion efficiency of ternary OSCs is increased from 15.64% to 17.37% via incorporating 10 wt% Y-T, with the simultaneously enhanced open-circuit voltage (Voc) of 0.865 V, a short-circuit current density (Jsc) of 26.90 mA/cm 2 , and a fill factor (FF) of 74.97%. The positive contribution of Y-T in the ternary blend can be ascribed to the improved spectroscopic complementarity and enhanced exciton utilization ratio due to the additional energy transfer process. Moreover, Y-T guest acceptor plays a critical role in adjusting the active layer morphology and facilitating three-dimension phase separation, resulting in a balanced charge transport and enhanced FF of ternary OSCs. Overall, this work provides insight into the molecular design of non-fullerene acceptor and suggest guidelines to rationally select guest component for ternary OSCs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Metal-to-Ligand Charge-Transfer Spectrum of a Ru-Bipyridine-Sensitized TiO 2 Cluster from Embedded Multiconfigurational Excited-State Theory

Understanding optical properties of the dye molecule in dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs) from first-principles quantum mechanics can contribute to improving the efficiency of such devices. While density functional theory (DFT) and time-dependent DFT have been pivotal in simulating optoelectronic properties of photoanodes used in DSSCs at the atomic scale, questions remain regarding DFT’s adequacy and accuracy to furnish critical information needed to understand the various excited-state processes involved. In this work, we simulate the absorption spectra of a dye-sensitized solar cell analogue, comprised of a Ru-bipyridine (Ru-bpy) dye molecule and a small TiO2 cluster via DFT and via an accurate embedded correlated wavefunction (CW) theory. We generated CW spectra for the adsorbed Ru-bpy dye via a recently introduced capped density functional embedding theory or capped-DFET (to generate the embedding potential that accounts for the interaction of the molecule and the TiO 2 cluster). We then combined capped-DFET with the accurate but expensive multiconfigurational complete active space second-order perturbation theory (CASPT2)—embedded CASPT2. Because the CW theory is conducted on only a portion of the total system in the presence of an embedding potential that describes that portion’s interaction with its environment, we efficiently obtain CW-quality predictions that reflect local properties of the entire system. Specifically, for example, with capped-DFET and embedded CW theory, we can simulate accurately a plethora of metal-to-ligand charge-transfer excited properties at a manageable computational cost. Here, we predict detailed electronic spectra within the visible region, featuring the lowest three singlet and triplet excited states, along with predictions of the singlets’ lifetimes. We illustrated these results using a Jablonski diagram that show the relative energy position of the singlet and longer-lived triplet excited states and analyzed and proposed relaxation paths for the excited state corresponding to the most intense but short-lived absorption (interconversion, intersystem crossing, fluorescence, and phosphorescence) that may lead to longer-lived excited states necessary for efficient charge separation required to generate current in solar cells.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Structured ionized winds shooting out from a quasar at relativistic speeds

Evidence indicates that supermassive black holes (SMBHs) exist at the centres of most galaxies. Their mass correlates with the galactic bulge mass, suggesting a coevolution with their host galaxies, most likely through powerful winds. X-ray observations have detected highly ionized winds outflowing at sub-relativistic speeds from the accretion disks around SMBHs. However, the limited spectral resolution of present X-ray instruments has left the physical structure and location of the winds poorly understood, hindering accurate estimates of their kinetic power. Here, in this study, the first X-Ray Imaging and Spectroscopy Mission (XRISM) observation of the luminous quasar PDS 456 is reported. The high-resolution spectrometer Resolve aboard XRISM enabled the discovery of five discrete velocity components outflowing at 20–30% of the speed of light. This demonstrates that the wind structure is highly inhomogeneous, which probably consists of up to a million clumps. The mass outflow rate is estimated to be 60–300 solar masses per year, with the wind kinetic power exceeding the Eddington luminosity limit. Compared with the galaxy-scale outflows, the kinetic power is more than three orders of magnitude larger, whereas the momentum flux is ten times larger. These estimates disfavour both energy-driven and momentum-driven outflow models. This suggests that such wind activity occurs in less than 10% of the quasar phase and/or that its energy/momentum is not efficiently transferred to the galaxy-scale outflows owing to the clumpiness of the wind and the interstellar medium.

Audard, Marc [Univ. of Geneva, Versoix (Switzerlan↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ultra High-Temperature Magnetic Bearing System for s-CO 2 Turbines/Expanders. Phase II Final Report

The goal of this project is to design and construct of a prototype of ultra-high temperature permanent magnet (UHT–PM), which provides the force to pull the spinning shaft towards the target position in the magnetic bearing (MB) clearance circle. This project will develop a PM biased MB system, that is actively cooled to the 550°C maximum operating temperature limit of PMs. The MB test environment will include 700°C, 40krpm and 4,000 psi requirements to advance the supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ) and other types of Brayton power cycle systems. The proposed novel MBs combine PMs for supplying the bias field and electromagnets for supplying the control field, both in UHT conditions. The choice of material is the UHT Sm-Co PMs (US patent 6,451,132) due to their significantly better thermal stability. The 6-pole homopolar design permits uninterrupted force delivery via a redundant control capability (US patent 7,429,811) even if 3 poles were to fail. The Phase I efforts was to focus on development and demonstration of component technologies and detailed design of full scale components and a demonstrator test rig for use in Phase II. UHT–PMs were produced and used in the MB actuator. The operating environment of the EEC-T550 Sm-Co magnet material could be extended by implementing active cooling. Electromagnetic coils imbedded in the MB provide forces to stabilize the shaft position at the target via sensing and control stages. Shaft position sensors enable to identify the present position of the spinning shaft relative to its desired target position in the MB clearance circle (air gap). Auxiliary bearings will be installed to provide a backup support system in the event that power to the MB fails or there is a fault in a device providing current to the MB coils. For control, reliability and safety reasons the sensors and auxiliary bearings are typically located as close as possible to the MBs, which exposes them to the same environmental conditions. Development of only the actuator for the UHT environment is an inadequate approach to complete integration of the MB system in the turbine/expander. Therefore the UHT sensor and auxiliary bearing were designed and developed along with the actively cooled, UHT-PM actuator development. Although shaft position sensors are commercially available (Kaman) they may cost up to $10k per channel, and a full 5 axis magnetic suspension is best implemented with up to 20 sensors. Once successfully completed, this project will significantly extend the operating environment capability for turbomachinery applications such as nuclear power, concentrated solar thermal, fossil fuel, geothermal, and shipboard propulsion. The further advancement of UHT-PM-MB will also strengthen the US position in PM technology, which is presently heavily dominated by China. The UHT Sm-Co magnet material that will be utilized in the proposed work has been developed exclusively by the project proposer. Many actuators, motors, generators and other MB applications will greatly benefit from the proposed work.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

HAIMOS Ensemble Forecasts for Intra-day and Day- Ahead GHI, DNI and Ramps

The objective of this research is to develop a hybrid physics-based/data-driven forecast model to improve direct normal and global horizontal irradiance (DNI and GHI) prediction for horizons ranging from 1 to 72 hours. Project objectives also address key gaps in state-of-the-art solar forecasting: accurate probabilistic solar forecasts and the forecasting of large irradiance ramps (ramp onset and magnitude). The proposed model ensembles Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts, determinist physics-based algorithms, and new-generation cloud cover products (high-resolution rapid refresh satellite images and Large Eddy Simulations). The result is the Hybrid Adaptive Input Model Objective Selection (HAIMOS) ensemble model. HAIMOS blends state of the art machine learning methodologies with physics-based models for cloud cover and cloud optical depth forecasts. The technical activities followed a two-pronged strategy. First, the preprocessing of data, the selection of inputs to the nonlinear approximators, the type of approximator and objective functions, and post-processing ensembling techniques included in HAIMOS were all optimized adaptively to find the best model for a specific goal (reduce DNI/GHI forecast error, improve the prediction of ramp onset, etc.). Second, a large effort was put in improving cloud identification and the forecast of cloud cover and cloud optical depth. To this end, new-generation cloud parametrization products were developed in this work. These include improved algorithms to assist in cloud identification, cloud classification and cloud parametrization from satellite images – three key factors in the accuracy of 1 to 6-hours irradiance forecasts and prediction of ramp onset. Furthermore, we also included cloud information extracted from high resolution rapid refresh satellite images (GOES-16) and Large Eddy Simulations (LES). LES was used to model the atmosphere in detail over locations of interest and produce cloud optical depth forecasts. Once these data streams were validated, they were used as input data to the HAIMOS forecast. The model was developed using data from several climatologically distinct locations with potential for high solar penetration. In the last year of the project, we conducted a validation campaign according to the guidelines stipulated by the Topic Area 1 project as described in the FOA. This effort brings, for the first time, proven machine-learning methodologies for generating state-of-the-art solar forecasts interweaved with detailed physics-based models for cloud detection, and cloud optical depth forecasts. HAIMOS will generate accurate irradiance probabilistic forecast to assist in reducing solar generation prediction error. Globally optimized solar forecast models are more likely to impact solar energy stakeholders. The goal of this project was to increase the state-of-the-art forecast skill from their present values of 10 to 35%. At the end of the project, we achieved between 30% and 50% forecast skill across a wide range of horizons for both GHI and DNI.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗