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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 667 records · Page 37
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1988

Performability modeling based on real data: A case study

Described is a measurement-based performability model based on error and resource usage data collected on a multiprocessor system. A method for identifying the model structure is introduced and the resulting model is validated against real data. Model development from the collection of raw data to the estimation of the expected reward is described. Both normal and error behavior of the system are characterized. The measured data show that the holding times in key operational and error states are not simple exponentials and that a semi-Markov process is necessary to model system behavior. A reward function, based on the service rate and the error rate in each state, is then defined in order to estimate the performability of the system and to depict the cost of apparent types of errors.

Hsueh, M. C.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Kinetic Model Development of the Carbon Vapor Deposition Reactor to Predict Performance Versus Design

To enable complete closure of a Sabatier-based atmosphere revitalization system where oxygen recovery is predicated by carbon dioxide reduction to methane and water, there must be a means of recovering the hydrogen from the byproduct methane. Honeywell’s carbon vapor deposition (CVD) reactor is a potential technology that provides a thermochemical means by which methane decomposes at high temperatures (> 1,000 °C) into hydrogen, solid carbon, and a small percentage of hydrocarbons. This advanced methane pyrolysis reactor utilizes a carbon fiber substrate to capture and immobilize the solid pyrolytic carbon rather than allowing continuation toward undesirable soot. The CVD reactor is a highly dynamic system whose characteristic geometry changes while operating. The reactor model was developed to provide predictive performance assessment capabilities at different operating conditions, geometries, and configurations to aid in technology development. Modeling of the CVD reactor considered the multitude of simultaneous and interdependent physicochemical processes that are entailed, including: (1) the homogeneous gas-phase pyrolysis reactions, (2) the heterogeneous deposition reactions, and (3) the transport of gaseous species in the reactor domains. A 1-D CVD reactor model was developed based on a general packed-bed, axial-dispersion plug flow reactor model with a solid substrate balance to account for carbon deposition. The model includes 59 species and 243 reactions constituting the methane pyrolysis reaction network, carbon deposition, and interconversions of oxygenate species. The reactor model was compared to brassboard test data, where it was shown to be able to capture the pertinent physicochemical phenomena as evidenced by its agreement with short-duration run data (i.e., looking at different temperature and flow rate conditions), as well as trend agreement with the brassboard reactor’s long-duration test data. Recommendations are provided on further model development steps as well as its use cases.

Air Revitalization↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hawai‘i National Marine Renewable Energy Center (HINMREC)

The Hawaii National Marine Renewable Energy Center (HINMREC) was established to facilitate the commercialization of wave energy converter (WEC) devices, and to accelerate development and testing of Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) technologies. Housed at the Hawaii Natural Energy Institute (HNEI) of the University of Hawaii (UH), this program started with execution of the contract between the US Department of Energy (DOE) and UH in March 2009, and activities ran through the end of the project in September 2019. The DOE tasked HINMREC with facilitating and accelerating the build-out of the Navy’s Wave Energy Test Site (WETS), the nation’s first grid-connected open water wave energy conversion test facility, located off Marine Corps Base Hawaii (MCBH) in Kaneohe, on the island of Oahu. WETS was expanded from an existing test berth at 30m water depth to include test berths at 60m and 80m water depths. In recognition of the high costs associated with at-sea testing and evaluation of WEC devices, it was deemed imperative that HINMREC seek ways to reduce costs to developers by providing key research support to these early-stage technologies. WETS and HINMREC’s support allowed development of wave energy technology by providing a testing infrastructure that allows technology developers to test, demonstrate and evaluate their WEC devices, and generate data in order to advance WEC designs toward commercial readiness. HINMREC’s roles have included support in the establishment of the full site, including of wave resource characterization and site survey, followed by the essential roles of independent WEC device power performance assessment and environmental monitoring in support of deployed pre-commercial WECs. This DOE-funded work transitioned effectively to continue Navy-funded tasks for OTEC development, and activities at WETS, now under Naval Facilities Engineering Command (NAVFAC) funding. A secondary objective in the establishment of HINMREC was to assist the private sector in moving OTEC systems beyond proof-of-concept to pre-commercialization, primarily focused on system and component engineering, and local and global investigations into the potential environmental impacts of OTEC systems. HINMREC was tasked with maintaining high-resolution models of ocean thermal resources and the potential sustainable power output of OTEC systems. Ongoing tests begun previously under Navy funding at the OTEC Heat Exchangers (HXs) Test Facility at the Natural Energy Laboratory of Hawaii Authority (NELHA), in Kona on Hawaii Island, have been continued to identify cost-effective aluminum alloys for use in OTEC systems operating in the corrosive marine environment.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
NASA NTRS2004

Simulation of Aerosols and Chemistry with a Unified Global Model

This project is to continue the development of the global simulation capabilities of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry and aerosols in a unified global model. This is a part of our overall investigation of aerosol-chemistry-climate interaction. In the past year, we have enabled the tropospheric chemistry simulations based on the GEOS-CHEM model, and added stratospheric chemical reactions into the GEOS-CHEM such that a globally unified troposphere-stratosphere chemistry and transport can be simulated consistently without any simplifications. The tropospheric chemical mechanism in the GEOS-CHEM includes 80 species and 150 reactions. 24 tracers are transported, including O3, NOx, total nitrogen (NOy), H2O2, CO, and several types of hydrocarbon. The chemical solver used in the GEOS-CHEM model is a highly accurate sparse-matrix vectorized Gear solver (SMVGEAR). The stratospheric chemical mechanism includes an additional approximately 100 reactions and photolysis processes. Because of the large number of total chemical reactions and photolysis processes and very different photochemical regimes involved in the unified simulation, the model demands significant computer resources that are currently not practical. Therefore, several improvements will be taken, such as massive parallelization, code optimization, or selecting a faster solver. We have also continued aerosol simulation (including sulfate, dust, black carbon, organic carbon, and sea-salt) in the global model to cover most of year 2002. These results have been made available to many groups worldwide and accessible from the website http://code916.gsfc.nasa.gov/People/Chin/aot.html.

Chin, Mian↗
DOE OSTI2021

Platform Agnostic Streaming Data Application Performance Models

The mapping of computational needs onto execution resources is, by and large, a manual task, and users are frequently guided simply by intuition and past experiences. We present a queueing theory based performance model for streaming data applications that takes steps towards a better understanding of resource mapping decisions, thereby assisting application developers to make good mapping choices. The performance model (and associated cost model) are agnostic to the specific properties of the compute resource and application, simply characterizing them by their achievable data throughput. We illustrate the model with a pair of applications, one chosen from the field of computational biology and the second is a classic machine learning problem.

Faber, Clayton↗
DOE OSTI2025

Harnessing Virtual Power Plants Reliably: Enabling tools for increased observability, controllability, operation, and aggregation of distributed energy resources

Harnessing virtual power plants enhances the integration of distributed energy resources into utility grids for a sustainable energy future. Virtual power plants (VPPs) aggregate DERs to enhance resource adequacy and reduce emissions. U.S. utilities are exploring various technologies to manage DERs effectively. FERC Order 2222 allows DERs to participate in both wholesale and retail markets. Enhancing observability and controllability of behind-the-meter (BTM) DERs is essential for reliable grid operations. A hierarchical control architecture can improve coordination among residential energy resources. Field tests showed nearly 20% energy savings and 30% peak power reduction during grid events. Effective management of DERs requires enhanced situational awareness to prevent grid congestion. Integrating DER management systems (DERMS) with existing planning tools can improve operational security. Near-real-time grid models can validate optimal resource set points against resource uncertainty. Traditional uninterruptible power supplies (UPS) can be upgraded to support grid services and become part of VPPs. Upgrading UPS systems can reduce costs by 75% and unlock significant battery capacity. New battery management systems and grid-aware controllers are essential for optimizing UPS performance. Continued research and development are necessary to address challenges in integrating DERs into utility grids. Encouraging customer participation in pilot programs is vital for the evolution of VPPs. Here, the shift towards price-responsive DERs and VPPs is expected to enhance energy distribution efficiency.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Implementation of a Hybrid Edge Node-Centroid Node Approach for the Generation of Reduced Thermal Models

Reduced thermal models are often required for delivery to organizations that manage observatory or launch models at the highest levels of assembly. However, the effort to generate reduced models, and verify against their detailed counterparts, is a challenge that has not yet been conclusively solved. Higher level organizations often place a limit on the number of nodes for delivered models with the assumption that smaller models generally result in less computation time. However, the burden of producing and verifying the accuracy of the reduced models is placed primarily on the lower-level organizations, which in turn consumes resources needed to produce these models. Limiting the total number of allowable nodes may also prevent users from taking full advantage of software capabilities that allow for faster generation of models, such as finite elements, which generally require more nodes than older centroid based models. A methodology using Thermal Desktop was described in 2010 which used: (1) finite elements and edge nodes for a conduction matrix, (2) centroid nodes for capacitance and radiative computations, and (3) the super network feature to produce a conduction matrix based only on the centroid nodes. At that time, the methodology was clear, but the implementation would have had to be done manually; however, with the inclusion of the OpenTD Application Programming Interface, this methodology can now be implemented programmatically and for the first time, be a viable approach for the generation of reduced models. The approach was implemented and developed at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) for the Capture, Containment, and Return System (CCRS) payload on the Earth Return Orbiter (ERO) as part of the Mars Sample Return mission, resulting in the TCYEE tool. ERO features a spacecraft bus provided by Airbus through the European Space Agency with node limitations on the delivered CCRS model provided by GSFC. TCYEE was used to generate the reduced model for this delivery and the predictions compared favorably to the detailed model currently in use for the thermal performance evaluation. Furthermore, TCYEE is being explored for potential use on the Roman Space Telescope (RST) for the generation of reduced models for delivery to the launch provider, which also has node limit requirements on the RST observatory model for use in launch simulation analyses. This paper describes the methodology, its implementation, and compares the performance of reduced models generated by TCYEE to their detailed counterparts.

Thermal Desktop↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Implementation of a Hybrid Edge Node-Centroid Node Approach for the Generation of Reduced Thermal Models

Reduced thermal models are often required for delivery to organizations that manage observatory or launch models at the highest levels of assembly. However, the effort to generate reduced models, and verify against their detailed counterparts, is a challenge that has not yet been conclusively solved. Higher level organizations often place a limit on the number of nodes for delivered models with the assumption that smaller models generally result in less computation time. However, the burden of producing and verifying the accuracy of the reduced models is placed primarily on the lower-level organizations, which in turn consumes resources needed to produce these models. Limiting the total number of allowable nodes may also prevent users from taking full advantage of software capabilities that allow for faster generation of models, such as finite elements, which generally require more nodes than older centroid based models. A methodology using Thermal Desktop was described in 2010 which used: (1) finite elements and edge nodes for a conduction matrix, (2) centroid nodes for capacitance and radiative computations, and (3) the super network feature to produce a conduction matrix based only on the centroid nodes. At that time, the methodology was clear, but the implementation would have had to be done manually; however, with the inclusion of the OpenTD API, this methodology can now be implemented programmatically and for the first time, be a viable approach for the generation of reduced models. The approach was implemented and developed at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) for the Capture, Containment, and Return System (CCRS) payload on the Earth Return Orbiter (ERO) as part of the Mars Sample Return (MSR) mission, resulting in the TCYEE tool. ERO features a spacecraft bus provided by Airbus through the European Space Agency (ESA) with node limitations on the delivered CCRS model provided by GSFC. TCYEE was used to generate the reduced model for this delivery and the predictions compared favorably to the detailed model currently in use for the thermal performance evaluation. Furthermore, TCYEE is being explored for potential use on the Roman Space Telescope (RST) for the generation of reduced models for delivery to the launch provider, which also has node limit requirements on the RST observatory model for use in launch simulation analyses. This paper describes the methodology, its implementation, and compares the performance of reduced models generated by TCYEE to their detailed counterparts.

Hume L. Peabody↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Implementation of a Hybrid Edge Node-Centroid Node Approach for the Generation of Reduced Thermal Models

Reduced thermal models are often required for delivery to organizations that manage observatory or launch models at the highest levels of assembly. However, the effort to generate reduced models, and verify against their detailed counterparts, is a challenge that has not yet been conclusively solved. Higher level organizations often place a limit on the number of nodes for delivered models with the assumption that smaller models generally result in less computation time. However, the burden of producing and verifying the accuracy of the reduced models is placed primarily on the lower-level organizations, which in turn consumes resources needed to produce these models. Limiting the total number of allowable nodes may also prevent users from taking full advantage of software capabilities that allow for faster generation of models, such as finite elements, which generally require more nodes than older centroid based models. A methodology using Thermal Desktop was described in 2010 which used: (1) finite elements and edge nodes for a conduction matrix, (2) centroid nodes for capacitance and radiative computations, and (3) the super network feature to produce a conduction matrix based only on the centroid nodes. At that time, the methodology was clear, but the implementation would have had to be done manually; however, with the inclusion of the OpenTD API, this methodology can now be implemented programmatically and for the first time, be a viable approach for the generation of reduced models. The approach was implemented and developed at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) for the Capture, Containment, and Return System (CCRS) payload on the Earth Return Orbiter (ERO) as part of the Mars Sample Return (MSR) mission, resulting in the TCYEE tool. ERO features a spacecraft bus provided by Airbus through the European Space Agency (ESA) with node limitations on the delivered CCRS model provided by GSFC. TCYEE was used to generate the reduced model for this delivery and the predictions compared favorably to the detailed model currently in use for the thermal performance evaluation. Furthermore, TCYEE is being explored for potential use on the Roman Space Telescope (RST) for the generation of reduced models for delivery to the launch provider, which also has node limit requirements on the RST observatory model for use in launch simulation analyses. This paper describes the methodology, its implementation, and compares the performance of reduced models generated by TCYEE to their detailed counterparts.

Thermal desktop↗
DOE OSTI2020

Techno-Economic Modelling of Tidal Energy Converter Arrays in the Tacoma Narrows

Hydrokinetic tidal energy converter (TEC) technology is yet to become cost competitive with other renewable energy sources. Understanding the interaction between energy production and the costs incurred harvesting that energy may unlock the economic potential of this technology. Although hydrodynamic simulation of TEC arrays has matured over time, including demonstration of how small and large arrays affect the resource, integration of cost modelling is often limited. The advanced ocean energy array techno-economic modelling tool ‘DTOcean’ enables designers to calculate and improve the levelised cost of energy (LCOE) of an array through parametric simulation of the energy extraction, design of the electrical network, moorings and foundations, and simulation of the installation and lifetime operations and maintenance of the array. This work presents a verification of DTOcean’s ability to simulate the techno-economic performance of TEC arrays by reproducing the hypothetical RM1 reference model, a semi-analytical model of a TEC array based in the Tacoma Narrows of Washington state, U.S.A. It is demonstrated that DTOcean can produce a reasonable estimate to the LCOE predicted by the reference model, giving (in Euro cents per kiloWatt hour) 36.69 ¢/kWh against the reference model’s 34.612 ¢/kWh for 10 TECs, while for 50 TECs, DTOcean calculated 20.34 ¢/kWh compared to 17.34 ¢/kWh for the reference model.

Topper, Mathew B. R. (ORCID:0000000347324347)↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Novel Approach to Simulating Diagnostic Capabilities in Medical Resource Risk Assessment

Diagnostics represent a key subset of medical resources considered for helping mitigate and control spaceflight medical risk. Historically, when modeling the medical risk domain for spaceflight, diagnostic resources have been handled like any other medical resource used for treatment. That is to say, the resource being unavailable will result in the related condition having suboptimal treatment outcomes. However in the real world, should a diagnostic resource be unavailable, a more analogous effect would be that the condition might be misdiagnosed, and thus inappropriate treatment applied. This talk presents an alternative means of representing diagnostic resources within the Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) that can simulate the effect both in risk, resource consumption, and competition for resources of a missing or depleted diagnostic. The scenario where a differential diagnosis may not be possible for abdominal conditions that use an ultrasound machine as a diagnostic tool is considered. Two approaches for modeling the effect of not having a diagnostic capability on the medical system are demonstrated. In the “simple” approach, it is assumed that any abdominal condition requiring the ultrasound machine for diagnosis is mis-diagnosed and treated as an appendicitis. This is represented by replacing the treatment for the affected conditions with the treatment for appendicitis, thereby changing the optimized medical set available for treatment for the remainder of the mission. In the “complex” approach, MEDPRAT treatment clusters are utilized to capture and represent overlapping treatment between the misdiagnosed condition and appendicitis. This elicits both the effect that inappropriate treatment is applied, resulting in wasted resource consumption, and that treatment which was truly needed for the misdiagnosed condition was not applied, which reduces the treatment effectiveness. In this talk, results comparing the simple and complex diagnostic capability approach to a baseline where the diagnostic is treated as a traditional resource is presented. Either approach provides an option for a more analogous representation of diagnostic resources and provides insight into how the modeled spaceflight medical resources and outcomes change when that diagnostic is unavailable.

C. M. Gasiewski↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeled Hourly Tidal Current Velocities, Directions, and Heights from May 1 - September 1, 2005 at Two Points Near East Forelands and Tyonek in Cook Inlet, Alaska

This dataset includes modeled tidal current velocities, direction and depth at two locations in East and North Forelands (60.716, -151.434 and 61.024, -151.157) near Nikiski and Tyonek, respectively, in Cook Inlet, Alaska. Data from two grid cells were provided by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory based on a tidal hydrodynamic model that characterized the tidal stream resources in Cook Inlet for a period from May 1 to September 1, 2005 (Wang and Yang 2020). The model grid size had a horizontal spatial resolution of 100 m at East Forelands and 200 m at Tyonek; mean sea level (MSL) depth was 47.9 m and 23.7 m at each respective site, and there were 10 depth bins that ranged in size with the tide from 4.3-5.2 m and 1.9-2.8 m, respectively (Wang and Yang 2020).

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2025

2D reactive transport model of shale chemical weathering and biogeochemical fluxes along a mountainous hillslope, East River Watershed, Colorado: Input files and simulation results

This data package contains input files and simulation results for a two-dimensional (2D) reactive transport model used to quantitatively analyze the coupled hydrological and biogeochemical processes governing shale weathering and associated biogeochemical fluxes under realistic environmental conditions in the high-elevation East River Watershed. These data support the conclusions presented in Stolze et al. (Water Resources Research, under review), "Model-based interpretation of solute exports and carbon partitioning during shale weathering in a mountainous hillslope". The model simulates atmospheric-subsurface gas exchange, subsurface water flow, and shale weathering processes under dynamic, year-scale conditions along a shale-underlain hillslope located in the East River watershed. The simulations were performed using the PFLOTRAN flow and reactive transport code and executed on the Perlmutter supercomputer to leverage its large-scale parallel computing capabilities. The data package contains two zipped folders, "model_input_files" and "simulation_results", and one readme.txt file. "model_input_files" contains the necessary input files to run the calibrated base-base model presented in Stolze et al. (Water Resources Research, under review). "simulation_results" contains a single hdf5 file ("Output_2D_hillslope_model.h5") which includes the results of simulation performed using the base-case model. This file can be opened with HDFView 3.1.4, Python, or MATLAB. "readme.txt" contains relevant information about the base-case model and provides guidelines on how to run the associated input files provided in the folder "model_input_files". Furthermore, readme.txt provides information regarding the model results provided in "Output_2D_hillslope_model.h5" such as matrix dimensionality and output units. Field datasets used to evaluate model performance were collected at three monitoring wells located along a hillslope transect (PLM1, PLM2, and PLM3). Dissolved ion concentration data were collected from November 2016 to October 2021 for Ca, Mg, DIC, Na, K, SO4 (Dong et al., 2025 - dic_npoc_data_2014_2024.zip - DOI:10.15485/1660459; Williams et al., 2025 - anion_data_2014_2024.zip - DOI:10.15485/1668054; Dong et al., 2025 - cation_data_2014_2024.zip - DOI:10.15485/1668055). Note that we used the files named er_PLM1_xx_yy, er_PLM2_xx_yy, and er_PLM3_xx_yy where xx stands for the name of the aqueous species and yy stands for the depth where the measurements were performed. Soil water content ([0 - 1] m) and water table depth were collected from November 2016 to October 2021 (Wan et al., 2024 - Dynamic_water_table__depthsFig2b.csv and Soil_water_content_Fig4e.csv - DOI:10.15485/2322567). Gaseous CO2 concentration were collected from October 2020 to December 2021(Wan et al., 2024 - Soil_CO2_concentrations_Fig4h.csv - DOI:10.15485/2322567) Gaseous CO2 flux from the subsurface to the atmosphere were collected in the vicinity of PLM2 from October 2019 to May 2022 (Wu et al., 2025). Soil microbial biomass concentration was measured from August 2016 to June 2017 (Sorensen et al., 2019 - 2017_East_River_Pumphouse_Microbial_Biomass__1_.csv - DOI:10.15485/1577267) All field data are published as CSV files compatible with Microsoft Excel, MATLAB, and Python, or as text files. The coordinates of the monitoring wells and the CO2(g) flux sensor in the coordinate system WGS84 are: -PLM1: [38.9197710 ; -106.9492750] -PLM2: [38.9201580 ; -106.9487170] -PLM3: [38.9207843 ; -106.9483668] -PLM4: 38.9210060 ; -106.9479528] -CO2(g) flux sensor: [38.9199180 ; -106.9489906] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231. This research used resources of the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC), a Department of Energy User Facility using NERSC award BER-ERCAP 23980, BER-ERCAP 28550, and BER-ERCAP 33789.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

When less is more: How increasing the complexity of machine learning strategies for geothermal energy assessments may not lead toward better estimates

Previous moderate- and high-temperature geothermal resource assessments of the western United States utilized data-driven methods and expert decisions to estimate resource favorability. Although expert decisions can add confidence to the modeling process by ensuring reasonable models are employed, expert decisions also introduce human and, thereby, model bias. This bias can present a source of error that reduces the predictive performance of the models and confidence in the resulting resource estimates. Our study aims to develop robust data-driven methods with the goals of reducing bias and improving predictive ability. We present and compare nine favorability maps for geothermal resources in the western United States using data from the U.S. Geological Survey's 2008 geothermal resource assessment. Two favorability maps are created using the expert decision-dependent methods from the 2008 assessment (i.e., weight-of-evidence and logistic regression). With the same data, we then create six different favorability maps using logistic regression (without underlying expert decisions), XGBoost, and support-vector machines paired with two training strategies. The training strategies are customized to address the inherent challenges of applying machine learning to the geothermal training data, which have no negative examples and severe class imbalance. We also create another favorability map using an artificial neural network. We demonstrate that modern machine learning approaches can improve upon systems built with expert decisions. We also find that XGBoost, a non-linear algorithm, produces greater agreement with the 2008 results than linear logistic regression without expert decisions, because the expert decisions in the 2008 assessment rendered the otherwise linear approaches non-linear despite the fact that the 2008 assessment used only linear methods. The F1 scores for all approaches appear low (F1 score < 0.10), do not improve with increasing model complexity, and, therefore, indicate the fundamental limitations of the input features (i.e., training data). Until improved feature data are incorporated into the assessment process, simple non-linear algorithms (e.g., XGBoost) perform equally well or better than more complex methods (e.g., artificial neural networks) and remain easier to interpret.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1992

The search for crustal resources - MAGSAT and beyond

In the decade since global satellite magnetic field data have been available from MAGSAT, notable progress has been made in processing these data for purposes of mapping crustal anomalies. Several regional magnetic anomaly maps compiled using these new techniques (e.g. Kursk region, U.S.S.R.; central Africa; Kiruna, Sweden; and the U.S.A. midcontinent) provide insight into the nature and tectonic evolution of the crust that contribute to conceptual crustal models useful in regional resource exploration. A recent mail survey of geopotential-field specialists involved in resource exploration indicates interest in MAGSAT data and future satellite missions with improved resolution. It is apparent that magnetic anomalies derived from satellite observations can aid in the search for crustal resources.

Taylor, P. T.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Metabolic model-based ecological modeling for probiotic design

The microbial community composition in the human gut has a profound effect on human health. This observation has lead to extensive use of microbiome therapies, including over-the-counter ‘probiotic’ treatments intended to alter the composition of the microbiome. Despite so much promise and commercial interest, the factors that contribute to the success or failure of microbiome-targeted treatments remain unclear. We investigate the biotic interactions that lead to successful engraftment of a novel bacterial strain introduced to the microbiome as in probiotic treatments. We use pairwise genome-scale metabolic modeling with a generalized resource allocation constraint to build a network of interactions between taxa that appear in an experimental engraftment study. We create induced sub-graphs using the taxa present in individual samples and assess the likelihood of invader engraftment based on network structure. To do so, we use a generalized Lotka-Volterra model, which we show has strong ability to predict if a particular invader or probiotic will successfully engraft into an individual’s microbiome. Furthermore, we show that the mechanistic nature of the model is useful for revealing which microbe-microbe interactions potentially drive engraftment.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Hawaii Meteorology, Energy and Transmission (MET) Toolkit

Reliable long-term resource adequacy and grid planning in Hawaii require precise, multi-decadal meteorological records. This paper introduces the Hawaii Meteorology, Energy and Transmission (MET) Toolkit, a 26-year (2000-2025) high-fidelity atmospheric dataset developed by the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR). We present a validation study of the underlying WRF model configurations, comparing the legacy MYNN PBL scheme against an alternative YSU formulation. Using vertical lidar profiles and surface buoy data, our analysis identified a foundational geometric distortion in the legacy NOW-23 Hawaii dataset caused by an incorrect grid projection. When evaluated on a corrected, zero-distortion grid, the YSU scheme demonstrated superior performance in bias and cRMSE compared to the legacy setup. To address these findings, the MET Toolkit has been re-produced as a unified 26-year record using the optimized YSU setup and corrected geometry. This dataset offers the Hawaii power sector a robust, validated, and homogenous reference for future grid resilience and energy integration.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

STFM: Accurate Spatio-Temporal Fusion Model for Weather Forecasting

Meteorological prediction is crucial for various sectors, including agriculture, navigation, daily life, disaster prevention, and scientific research. However, traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are constrained by their high computational resource requirements, while the accuracy of deep learning models remains suboptimal. In response to these challenges, we propose a novel deep learning-based model, the Spatiotemporal Fusion Model (STFM), designed to enhance the accuracy of meteorological predictions. Our model leverages Fifth-Generation ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA5) data and introduces two key components: a spatiotemporal encoder module and a spatiotemporal fusion module. The spatiotemporal encoder integrates the strengths of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and recurrent neural networks (RNNs), effectively capturing both spatial and temporal dependencies. Meanwhile, the spatiotemporal fusion module employs a dual attention mechanism, decomposing spatial attention into global static attention and channel dynamic attention. This approach ensures comprehensive extraction of spatial features from meteorological data. The combination of these modules significantly improves prediction performance. Experimental results demonstrate that STFM excels in extracting spatiotemporal features from reanalysis data, yielding predictions that closely align with observed values. In comparative studies, STFM outperformed other models, achieving a 7% improvement in ground and high-altitude temperature predictions, a 5% enhancement in the prediction of the u/v components of 10 m wind speed, and an increase in the accuracy of potential height and relative humidity predictions by 3% and 1%, respectively. This enhanced performance highlights STFM’s potential to advance the accuracy and reliability of meteorological forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗