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At least 667 records · Page 37

Greenhouse Gas Concentration Data Recovery Algorithm for a Low Cost, Laser Heterodyne Radiometer

The goal of a coordinated effort between groups at GWU and NASA GSFC is the development of a low-cost, global, surface instrument network that continuously monitors three key carbon cycle gases in the atmospheric column: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), carbon monoxide (CO), as well as oxygen (O2) for atmospheric pressure profiles. The network will implement a low-cost, miniaturized, laser heterodyne radiometer (mini-LHR) that has recently been developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. This mini-LHR is designed to operate in tandem with the passive aerosol sensor currently used in AERONET (a well established network of more than 450 ground aerosol monitoring instruments worldwide), and could be rapidly deployed into this established global network. Laser heterodyne radiometry is a well-established technique for detecting weak signals that was adapted from radio receiver technology. Here, a weak light signal, that has undergone absorption by atmospheric components, is mixed with light from a distributed feedback (DFB) telecommunications laser on a single-mode optical fiber. The RF component of the signal is detected on a fast photoreceiver. Scanning the laser through an absorption feature in the infrared, results in a scanned heterodyne signal io the RF. Deconvolution of this signal through the retrieval algorithm allows for the extraction of altitude contributions to the column signal. The retrieval algorithm is based on a spectral simulation program, SpecSyn, developed at GWU for high-resolution infrared spectroscopies. Variations io pressure, temperature, composition, and refractive index through the atmosphere; that are all functions of latitude, longitude, time of day, altitude, etc.; are modeled using algorithms developed in the MODTRAN program developed in part by the US Air Force Research Laboratory. In these calculations the atmosphere is modeled as a series of spherically symmetric shells with boundaries specified at defined altitudes. Temperature, pressure, and species mixing ratios are defined at these boundaries. Between the boundaries, temperature is assumed to vary linearly with altitude while pressure (and thus gas density) vary exponentially. The observed spectrum at the LHR instrument will be the integration of the contributions along this light path. For any absorption measurement the signal at a particular spectral frequency is a linear combination of spectral line contributions from several species. For each species that might absorb in a spectral region, we have pre-calculated its contribution as a function of temperature and pressure. The integrated path absorption spectrum can then by calculated using the initial sun angle (from location, date, and time) and assumptions about pressure and temperature profiles from an atmospheric model. The modeled spectrum is iterated to match the experimental observation using standard multilinear regression techniques. In addition to the layer concentrations, the numerical technique also provides uncertainty estimates for these quantities as well as dependencies on assumptions inherent in the atmospheric models.

Miller, J. Houston↗

Prediction Model for the Life of Nickel-cadmium Batteries in Geosynchronous Orbit Satellites

A mathematical model is described which predicts the service life of nickel-cadmium batteries designed for geosynchronous orbit satellites. Regression analysis technique is used to analyze orbital data on second generation trickle charged batteries. The model gives average cell voltage as a function of design parameters, operating parameters and time. The voltage model has the properties of providing a good fit to the data, good predictive capability, and agreement with known battery performance characteristics. Average cell voltage can be predicted to within 0.02 volts for up to 8 years. This modeling shows that these batteries will operate reliably for 10 years. Third-generation batteries are expected to operate even longer.

Engleman, J. H.↗

Flap-lag damping in hover and forward flight with a three-dimensional wake

Prediction of lag damping is difficult owing to the delicate balance of drag, induced drag and Coriolis forces in the in-plane direction. Moreover, induced drag is sensitive to dynamic wake, both shed and trailing components, and thus its prediction requires adequate unsteady-wake representation. Accordingly, rigid-blade flap-lag equations are coupled with a three-dimensional finite-state wake model; three isolated rotor configurations with three, four and five blades are treated over a range of thrust levels, Lock numbers, lag frequencies and advance ratios. The investigation includes convergence characteristics of damping with respect to the number of radial shape functions and harmonics of the wake model for multiblade modes of low frequency (less than 1/rev.) to high frequency (greater than 1/rev.). Predicted flap and lag damping levels are then compared with similar predictions with (1) rigid wake (no unsteady induced flow, (2) Loewy lift defficiency and (3) dynamic inflow. The coverage also includes correlations with the measured lag regressive-mode damping in hover and forward flight and comparisons with similar correlations with dynamic wake model are consistently higher than the predictions with the dynamic inflow model; even for the low frequency lag regressive mode, the number of wake harmonics should at least be equal to twice the number of blades.

Manjunath, A. R.↗

Application of Gaussian Mixture Regression for the Correction of Low Cost PM2.5 Monitoring Data in Accra, Ghana

Low-cost sensors (LCSs) for air quality monitoring have enormous potential to improve air quality data coverage in resource-limited parts of the world such as sub-Saharan Africa. LCSs, however, are affected by environment and source conditions. To establish high-quality data, LCSs must be collocated and calibrated with reference grade PM2.5 monitors. From March 2020, a low-cost PurpleAir PM2.5 monitor was collocated with a Met One Beta Attenuation Monitor 1020 in Accra, Ghana. While previous studies have shown that multiple linear regression (MLR) and random forest regression (RF) can improve accuracy and correlation between PurpleAir and reference data, MLR and RF yielded suboptimal improvement in the Accra collocation (R2 = 0.81 and R2 = 0.81, respectively). We present the first application of Gaussian mixture regression (GMR) to air quality data calibration and demonstrate improvement over traditional methods by increasing the collocated PM2.5 correlation and accuracy to R2 = 0.88 and MAE = 2.2 μg/cu. m. Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) are a probability density estimator and clustering method from which nonlinear regressions that tolerate missing inputs can be derived. We find that even when given missing inputs, GMR provides better correlation than MLR and RF performed with complete data. GMR also allows us to estimate calibration certainty. When evaluated, 95% confidence intervals agreed with reference PM2.5 data 96% of the time, suggesting that the model accurately assesses its own confidence. Additionally, clustering within the GMM is consistent with climate characteristics, providing confidence that the calibration approach can learn underlying relationships in data.

Sensors↗

The Goddard Snow Radiance Assimilation Project: An Integrated Snow Radiance and Snow Physics Modeling Framework for Snow/cold Land Surface Modeling

Microwave-based retrievals of snow parameters from satellite observations have a long heritage and have so far been generated primarily by regression-based empirical "inversion" methods based on snapshots in time. Direct assimilation of microwave radiance into physical land surface models can be used to avoid errors associated with such retrieval/inversion methods, instead utilizing more straightforward forward models and temporal information. This approach has been used for years for atmospheric parameters by the operational weather forecasting community with great success. Recent developments in forward radiative transfer modeling, physical land surface modeling, and land data assimilation are converging to allow the assembly of an integrated framework for snow/cold lands modeling and radiance assimilation. The objective of the Goddard snow radiance assimilation project is to develop such a framework and explore its capabilities. The key elements of this framework include: a forward radiative transfer model (FRTM) for snow, a snowpack physical model, a land surface water/energy cycle model, and a data assimilation scheme. In fact, multiple models are available for each element enabling optimization to match the needs of a particular study. Together these form a modular and flexible framework for self-consistent, physically-based remote sensing and water/energy cycle studies. In this paper we will describe the elements and the integration plan. All modules will operate within the framework of the Land Information System (LIS), a land surface modeling framework with data assimilation capabilities running on a parallel-node computing cluster. Capabilities for assimilation of snow retrieval products are already under development for LIS. We will describe plans to add radiance-based assimilation capabilities. Plans for validation activities using field measurements will also be discussed.

Kim, E.↗

A Monte Carlo Uncertainty Analysis of Ozone Trend Predictions in a Two Dimensional Model

We use Monte Carlo analysis to estimate the uncertainty in predictions of total O3 trends between 1979 and 1995 made by the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) two-dimensional (2D) model of stratospheric photochemistry and dynamics. The uncertainty is caused by gas-phase chemical reaction rates, photolysis coefficients, and heterogeneous reaction parameters which are model inputs. The uncertainty represents a lower bound to the total model uncertainty assuming the input parameter uncertainties are characterized correctly. Each of the Monte Carlo runs was initialized in 1970 and integrated for 26 model years through the end of 1995. This was repeated 419 times using input parameter sets generated by Latin Hypercube Sampling. The standard deviation (a) of the Monte Carlo ensemble of total 03 trend predictions is used to quantify the model uncertainty. The 34% difference between the model trend in globally and annually averaged total O3 using nominal inputs and atmospheric trends calculated from Nimbus 7 and Meteor 3 total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) version 7 data is less than the 46% calculated 1 (sigma), model uncertainty, so there is no significant difference between the modeled and observed trends. In the northern hemisphere midlatitude spring the modeled and observed total 03 trends differ by more than 1(sigma) but less than 2(sigma), which we refer to as marginal significance. We perform a multiple linear regression analysis of the runs which suggests that only a few of the model reactions contribute significantly to the variance in the model predictions. The lack of significance in these comparisons suggests that they are of questionable use as guides for continuing model development. Large model/measurement differences which are many multiples of the input parameter uncertainty are seen in the meridional gradients of the trend and the peak-to-peak variations in the trends over an annual cycle. These discrepancies unambiguously indicate model formulation problems and provide a measure of model performance which can be used in attempts to improve such models.

Considine, D. B.↗

Development of a noise annoyance sensitivity scale

Examining the problem of noise pollution from the psychological rather than the engineering view, a test of human sensitivity to noise was developed against the criterion of noise annoyance. Test development evolved from a previous study in which biographical, attitudinal, and personality data was collected on a sample of 166 subjects drawn from the adult community of Raleigh. Analysis revealed that only a small subset of the data collected was predictive of noise annoyance. Item analysis yielded 74 predictive items that composed the preliminary noise sensitivity test. This was administered to a sample of 80 adults who later rate the annoyance value of six sounds (equated in terms of peak sound pressure level) presented in a simulated home, living-room environment. A predictive model involving 20 test items was developed using multiple regression techniques, and an item weighting scheme was evaluated.

Bregman, H. L.↗

Application of remote sensing for fishery resources assessment and monitoring

The author has identified the following significant results. The distribution and abundance of white marlin correlated with the chlorophyll, water temperature, and Secchi depth sea truth measurements. Results of correlation analyses for dolphin were inconclusive. Predicition models for white marlin were developed using stepwise multiple regression and discriminant function analysis techniques which demonstrated a potential for increasing the probability of game fishing success. The S190A and B imagery was density sliced/color enhanced with white marlin location superimposed on the image, but no density/white marlin relationship could be established.

Savastano, K. J.↗

Estimation of airplane stability and control derivatives at high angles of attack

A technique for extracting approximate aircraft stability and control derivatives over a broad range of angle of attack from a single large amplitude maneuver which encompasses that range is presented. The results from the application of this technique to flight data are shown to agree well with derivatives extracted from several maneuvers which are more restricted in range of angle of attack. The technique consists of dividing the data from the large maneuver into bins that are a function of angle of attack. The binned data is then analyzed with a modified stepwise regression. The identification of nonlinear terms in the aerodynamic model is shown to discern regions of rapid change in aircraft behavior.

Batterson, J. G.↗

Meteorological factors in Earth-Satellite propagation

A 5-meter paraboloidal antenna operated at 28 GHz showed gain changes of 2 dB due to rain. While precise estimation of the corresponding angle of arrival changes is difficult, they appear to have been on the order of 0.02 degrees. The attenuation at 28.6 GHz inferred from radiometry agreed well with that measured simultaneously over a satellite/Earth link at the same frequency. The radiometers so calibrated have been used to add to the available site diversity data base using a 9 km baseline. An improved empirical model of site diversity gain was obtained by applying regression techniques to available published data. A brief review of the literature has led to suggestions for two experimental programs, one dealing with multifrequency radiometry and the other with the effects of the stochastic properties of precipitation on wideband data transmission.

Levis, C. A.↗

Determining a Prony Series for a Viscoelastic Material From Time Varying Strain Data

In this study a method of determining the coefficients in a Prony series representation of a viscoelastic modulus from rate dependent data is presented. Load versus time test data for a sequence of different rate loading segments is least-squares fitted to a Prony series hereditary integral model of the material tested. A nonlinear least squares regression algorithm is employed. The measured data includes ramp loading, relaxation, and unloading stress-strain data. The resulting Prony series which captures strain rate loading and unloading effects, produces an excellent fit to the complex loading sequence.

Tzikang, Chen↗

Improving Space Project Cost Estimating with Engineering Management Variables

Current space project cost models attempt to predict space flight project cost via regression equations, which relate the cost of projects to technical performance metrics (e.g. weight, thrust, power, pointing accuracy, etc.). This paper examines the introduction of engineering management parameters to the set of explanatory variables. A number of specific engineering management variables are considered and exploratory regression analysis is performed to determine if there is statistical evidence for cost effects apart from technical aspects of the projects. It is concluded that there are other non-technical effects at work and that further research is warranted to determine if it can be shown that these cost effects are definitely related to engineering management.

Hamaker, Joseph W.↗

Recommendations for Using Noise Monitors to Estimate Noise Exposure During X-59 Community Tests

A low fidelity simulation approach is used to explore how to place and use noise monitors during X-59 QueSST community tests, where people’s annoyance to the noise produced by the X-59 aircraft will be gathered. Several recommendations are provided including: 1) the desired number of sparsely spaced noise monitor sites within the survey area, 2) whether to group and average measurements across multiple noise monitors located at a site, 3) what spacing should be used if grouped noise monitors are used, 4) an approach to mitigate ambient noise contamination at the measurement sites, 5) a method to combine empirical and predicted dose estimates to provide a single dose estimate for respondents, and 6) assessing how changes in turbulence intensity and array configuration affect dose uncertainty. To make these recommendations, the error that is expected when fitting contrived, smoothly varying sonic boom “reference exposure surfaces” is studied when a spatially sparse and scattered set of samples is used as responses for the fit. The reference exposure surfaces mimic the sonic boom exposure at ground level that might be expected in the X-59 survey area in the absence of atmospheric turbulence, ambient noise, and other localized effects. The spatial extent of these surfaces varies and is representative of the different survey area sizes that might be expected during future X-59 community overflight tests. These contrived reference surfaces are sampled, and those reference samples are then perturbed to mimic atmospheric turbulence, ambient noise and other localized effects that might affect noise monitor measurements within overflown communities. Two different surface fitting methods are investigated when fitting these perturbed samples to approximate the reference surface. The first method uses interpolation between the perturbed data at the scattered sites to compute the fit. The second method fits a polynomial surface model to the perturbed data using ordinary least squares regression analysis. For both fitting methods, the root mean square fit error is computed from the pointwise difference between the fit surface and the reference surface as the count and configuration of the sites is varied while also averaging the error across many different realizations of both the smooth variation of the reference exposure surface and the random, localized perturbations at the sample sites. Different site configurations are compared using this error statistic to make the recommendations noted above. Additionally, the two fitting approaches (interpolation vs linear regression) are compared based on the fit error observed in these simulations. These analyses, comparisons, and recommendations should inform future decisions on the noise monitor placement and the methods used to analyze the noise monitor data that is collected during X-59 community overflights.

sonic boom↗

High-Fidelity Flight Dynamic Analysis of Transonic Truss-Braced Wing

This paper presents a high-fidelity flight dynamic analysis of the Mach 0.8 Transonic Truss-Braced Wing (TTBW). Unsteady RANS CFD simulations of the Mach 0.8 TTBW in pitch, plunge, roll, and yaw oscillations are conducted in FUN3D. The time-domain data are transformed into the frequency-domain data by Fourier series. Transfer functions of the dynamic stability derivatives are then estimated by a frequency-domain re- gression. The dynamic stability derivatives with respect to the angle of attack are determined by the regression of the unsteady aerodynamic coefficients for the plunge motion. The dynamic stability derivatives with re- spect to the pitch rate are determined by the regression of the differential unsteady aerodynamic coefficients for the pitch motion upon the removal of the angle of attack contribution by the plunge motion. Similarly, dynamic stability derivatives with respect to the angle of sideslip, roll rate, and yaw rates are determined from the frequency domain regression. The longitudinal and lateral-direction flight dynamic models of the Mach 0.8 TTBW are constructed from these dynamic stability derivatives. The eigenvalues of the aircraft modes are analyzed to determine the vehicle stability.

Aircraft Stability and Control↗

An Evaluation Technique for an F/A-18 Aircraft Loads Model Using F/A-18 Systems Research Aircraft Flight Data

A limited evaluation of the F/A-18 baseline loads model was performed on the Systems Research Aircraft at NASA Dryden Flight Research Center (Edwards, California). Boeing developed the F/A-18 loads model using a linear aeroelastic analysis in conjunction with a flight simulator to determine loads at discrete locations on the aircraft. This experiment was designed so that analysis of doublets could be used to establish aircraft aerodynamic and loads response at 20 flight conditions. Instrumentation on the right outboard leading edge flap, left aileron, and left stabilator measured the hinge moment so that comparisons could be made between in-flight-measured hinge moments and loads model-predicted values at these locations. Comparisons showed that the difference between the loads model-predicted and in-flight-measured hinge moments was up to 130 percent of the flight limit load. A stepwise regression technique was used to determine new loads derivatives. These derivatives were placed in the loads model, which reduced the error to within 10 percent of the flight limit load. This paper discusses the flight test methodology, a process for determining loads coefficients, and the direct comparisons of predicted and measured hinge moments and loads coefficients.

Olney, Candida D.↗

Supporting technology for the development of Controlled Ecological Life Support Systems (CELSS)

To support the development of Controlled Ecological Life Support Systems (CELSS) in the space program, a metabolic simulator has been selected for use in a closed chamber to test functions of the CELSS. This metabolic simulator is a catalytic reactor which oxidizes the methyl acetate to produce carbon dioxide and water vapor. In this project, kinetic studies of catalytic oxidation of methyl acetate were conducted using monolithic and pellet catalysts with 0.5% (by weight) platinum (Pt) on aluminum oxide (Al2O3). The reaction was studied at a pressure of one atmosphere and at temperatures varying from 160 C to 420 C. By-products were identified at the exit of the preheater and reactor. For the kinetic study with the monolithic catalyst, a linear regression method was used to correlate the kinetic data with zero-order, first-order and Langmuir-Hinshelwood models. Results indicate that the first-order model represents the data adequately at low concentrations of methyl acetate. For higher concentrations of methyl acetate, the Langmuir-Hinshelwood model best represents the kinetic data. Both rate constant and adsorption equilibrium constants were estimated from the regression. A Taguchi orthogonal array (L(sub 9)) was used to investigate the effects of temperature, flow rate, and concentration on the catalytic oxidation of methyl acetate. For the monolithic catalyst, temperature exerts the most significant effect, followed by concentration of methyl acetate. For the pellet catalyst, reaction temperature is the most significant factor, followed by gas flow rate and methyl acetate concentration. Concentrations of either carbon dioxide or oxygen were seen to have insignificant effect on the methyl acetate conversion process. Experimental results indicate that the preheater with glass beads can accomplish thermal cracking and catalytic reaction of methyl acetate to produce acetic acid, methanol, methyl formate, and 1-propanol. The concentration of all by-products was measured in ppmv (parts per million by volume). At higher temperatures, greater amounts of these products are produced, as expected. In all cases, methanol was the predominant concentration detected, followed by methyl formate. At temperatures lower than 320 C for the P-type monolithic catalyst, methanol, acetic acid, and acetone were detected, whereas, for the E-type monolithic catalyst, only methanol was detected at 160 C. Both P and E types of the monolithic catalyst were specified with the same substrates (ceramic), washcoat (Al2O3), and promoter (Pt). However, the manufacturing and treatment procedures were quite different. It was therefore concluded that the performance of the E-type monolithic catalyst is superior to that of the P-type for oxidation of methyl acetate. At higher reaction temperatures, e.g., above 420 C, all reactants and byproducts were completely oxidized using these two types of monolithic catalyst to produce carbon dioxide and water vapor. A complex heterogenous catalytic reaction mechanism was proposed to explain the formation of the byproducts (methanol, acetic acid, and methyl formate) as the methyl acetate traveled through the preheater packed with glass beads. The by-product, 1-propanol, may be formed only through a homogeneous reaction, since it is difficult to develop a reasonable sequence of heterogeneous reaction steps to explain its formation. The homogeneous thermal decomposition of methyl acetate to form free radicals was proposed to explain the formation of 1-propanol, and also methanol, in the preheater. A dual-site catalytic reaction mechanism was proposed for the oxidation of methyl acetate over Pt/Al2O3 monolithic catalyst. The dual-site mechanism describes the chemisorption of oxygen molecules as well as a physical adsorption of methyl acetate on the active sites. On the active sites, methyl acetate is oxidized rapidly to form carbon dioxide and water vapor. A rate equation derived from this mechanism gives the Langmuir-Hinshelwood rate formula which has been observed from the experimental data obtained in this project for high methyl acetate concentration (greater than 1000 ppmv) over a monolithic catalyst. If the oxygen concentration is very high and methyl acetate concentration is very low, the reaction rate equation is then reduced to a first-order with respect to methyl acetate concentration. The first-order model has also been observed from the experimental data obtained in this project for low methyl acetate concentration (less than 1000 ppmv).

Li, Ku-Yen↗

Demonstration of a Fiber Optic Regression Probe in a High-Temperature Flow

The capability to provide localized, real-time monitoring of material regression rates in various applications has the potential to provide a new stream of data for development testing of various components and systems, as well as serving as a monitoring tool in flight applications. These applications include, but are not limited to, the regression of a combusting solid fuel surface, the ablation of the throat in a chemical rocket or the heat shield of an aeroshell, and the monitoring of erosion in long-life plasma thrusters. The rate of regression in the first application is very fast, while the second and third are increasingly slower. A recent fundamental sensor development effort has led to a novel regression, erosion, and ablation sensor technology (REAST). The REAST sensor allows for measurement of real-time surface erosion rates at a discrete surface location. The sensor is optical, using two different, co-located fiber-optics to perform the regression measurement. The disparate optical transmission properties of the two fiber-optics makes it possible to measure the regression rate by monitoring the relative light attenuation through the fibers. As the fibers regress along with the parent material in which they are embedded, the relative light intensities through the two fibers changes, providing a measure of the regression rate. The optical nature of the system makes it relatively easy to use in a variety of harsh, high temperature environments, and it is also unaffected by the presence of electric and magnetic fields. In addition, the sensor could be used to perform optical spectroscopy on the light emitted by a process and collected by fibers, giving localized measurements of various properties. The capability to perform an in-situ measurement of material regression rates is useful in addressing a variety of physical issues in various applications. An in-situ measurement allows for real-time data regarding the erosion rates, providing a quick method for empirically anchoring any analysis geared towards lifetime qualification. Erosion rate data over an operating envelope could also be useful in the modeling detailed physical processes. The sensor has been embedded in many regressing media to demonstrate the capabilities in a number of regressing environments. In the present work, sensors were installed in the eroding/regressing throat region of a converging-diverging flow, with the working gas heated to high temperatures by means of a high-pressure arc discharge at steady-state discharge power levels up to 500 kW. The amount of regression observed in each material sample was quantified using a later profilometer, which was compared to the in-situ erosion measurements to demonstrate the efficacy of the measurement technique in very harsh, high-temperature environments.

Korman, Valentin↗