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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 667 records · Page 37
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Two Strengths of Ordinary Chondritic Meteoroids as Derived from Their Atmospheric Fragmentation Modeling

The internal structure and strength of small asteroids and large meteoroids is poorly known. Observation of bright fireballs in the Earth’s atmosphere can explore meteoroid structure by studying meteoroid fragmentation during the flight. Earlier evaluations showed that the meteoroid’s strength is significantly lower than that of the recovered meteorites. We present a detailed study of atmospheric fragmentation of seven meteorite falls, all ordinary chondrites, and 14 other fireballs, where meteorite fall was predicted but the meteorites, probably also ordinary chondrites, were not recovered. All observations were made by the autonomous observatories of the European Fireball Network and include detailed radiometric light curves. A model, called the semiempirical fragmentation model, was developed to fit the light curves and decelerations. Videos showing individual fragments were available in some cases. The results demonstrated that meteoroids do not fragment randomly but in two distinct phases. The first phase typically corresponds to low strengths of 0.04–0.12 MPa. In two-thirds of cases, the first phase was catastrophic or nearly catastrophic with at least 40% of mass lost. The second phase corresponds to 0.9–5 MPa for confirmed meteorite falls and somewhat lower strengths, from about 0.5 MPa, for smaller meteoroids. All of these strengths are lower than the tensile strengths of ordinary chondritic meteorites cited in the literature, 20–40 MPa. We interpret the second phase as being due to cracks in meteoroids and the first phase as a separation of weakly cemented fragments, which reaccumulated at the surfaces of asteroids after asteroid collisions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

GANISP: A GAN-Assisted Importance Splitting Probability Estimator: Preprint

To reduce the variance of rare event probability estimator, genealogical importance splitting marches towards a rare event by iteratively selecting and replicating realizations that are headed towards a rare event. The replication step is made difficult when applied to deterministic systems as the initial conditions of the offspring realizations need to be modified. Typically, a random perturbation is applied to the offspring to differentiate their trajectory from the parent realization. It is shown that a random perturbation strategy may be effective for some systems but may also fail for others, thereby preventing variance reduction in the probability estimate. To address this limitation, it is proposed to use a generative model such as a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) to generate perturbations that are consistent with the attractor of the dynamical system. The GAN-assisted Importance SPlitting method (GANISP) improves the variance reduction for the system targeted. An implementation of the method is available in a companion repository (https://github.com/NREL/GANISP).

generative adversarial network↗
DOE OSTI2024

Distributed Automatic Generation Control Considering DPV Using T&D Dynamic Co-Simulation

The increasing adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs) over the last decade warrants a reconsideration of control of generation resources. This paper proposes a distributed Automatic Generation Control (AGC) using transmission-and-distribution (T&D) dynamic co-simulation framework for the efficient DPV frequency regulation services. The co-simulation framework allows AGC units to exchange the information for distributed AGC, based on their adopted communication network topology. As a result, a cost-effective automatic generation control is achieved with DPV and conventional generators. The proposed distributed AGC is based on the gossip algorithm in which the neighboring AGC units share the relevant local information with each other and updates their share of AGC regulation signal. Distributed photovoltaics (DPV) unit contribute to AGC response based on their headroom capacity via DER aggregators. The algorithm is tested on IEEE-14 bus transmission system under conditions of generation failure and random load variation to observe effective frequency regulations service offered by DPVs and other AGC units. The study shows that DPV can effectively participate in AGC with the proposed distributed control framework.

automatic generation control↗
DOE OSTI2023

Graph Metric Learning Quantifies Morphological Differences between Two Genotypes of Shoot Apical Meristem Cells in Arabidopsis

We present a method for learning “spectrally descriptive” edge weights for graphs. We generalize a previously known distance measure on graphs (Graph Diffusion Distance), thereby allowing it to be tuned to minimize an arbitrary loss function. Because all steps involved in calculating this modified GDD are differentiable, we demonstrate that it is possible for a small neural network model to learn edge weights which minimize loss. We apply this method to discriminate between graphs constructed from shoot apical meristem images of two genotypes of Arabidopsis thaliana specimens: wild-type and trm678 triple mutants with cell division phenotype. Training edge weights and kernel parameters with contrastive loss produces a learned distance metric with large margins between these graph categories. We demonstrate this by showing improved performance of a simple k-nearest-neighbors classifier on the learned distance matrix. We also demonstrate a further application of this method to biological image analysis. Once trained, we use our model to compute the distance between the biological graphs and a set of graphs output by a cell division simulator. Comparing simulated cell division graphs to biological ones allows us to identify simulation parameter regimes which characterize mutant vs. wild-type Arabidopsis cells. We find that trm678 mutant cells are characterized by increased randomness of division planes and decreased ability to avoid previous vertices between cell walls.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2001

ATM QoS Experiments Using TCP Applications: Performance of TCP/IP Over ATM in a Variety of Errored Links

Asynchronous Transfer Mode (ATM) Quality of Service (QoS) experiments using the Transmission Control Protocol/Internet Protocol (TCP/IP) were performed for various link delays. The link delay was set to emulate a Wide Area Network (WAN) and a Satellite Link. The purpose of these experiments was to evaluate the ATM QoS requirements for applications that utilize advance TCP/IP protocols implemented with large windows and Selective ACKnowledgements (SACK). The effects of cell error, cell loss, and random bit errors on throughput were reported. The detailed test plan and test results are presented herein.

Frantz, Brian D.↗
NASA NTRS2020

An AeroCom–AeroSat study: intercomparison of satellite AOD datasets for aerosol model evaluation

To better understand and characterize current uncertainties in the important observational constraint of climate models of aerosol optical depth (AOD), we evaluate and intercompare 14 satellite products, representing nine different retrieval algorithm families using observations from five different sensors on six different platforms. The satellite products (super-observations consisting of 1°×1° daily aggregated retrievals drawn from the years 2006, 2008 and 2010) are evaluated with AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and Maritime Aerosol Network (MAN) data. Results show that different products exhibit different regionally varying biases (both under- and overestimates) that may reach ±50 %, although a typical bias would be 15 %–25 % (depending on the product). In addition to these biases, the products exhibit random errors that can be 1.6 to 3 times as large. Most products show similar performance, although there are a few exceptions with either larger biases or larger random errors. The intercomparison of satellite products extends this analysis and provides spatial context to it. In particular, we show that aggregated satellite AOD agrees much better than the spatial coverage (often driven by cloud masks) within the 1°×1° grid cells. Up to ∼50 % of the difference between satellite AOD is attributed to cloud contamination. The diversity in AOD products shows clear spatial patterns and varies from 10 % (parts of the ocean) to 100 % (central Asia and Australia). More importantly, we show that the diversity may be used as an indication of AOD uncertainty, at least for the better performing products. This provides modellers with a global map of expected AOD uncertainty in satellite products, allows assessment of products away from AERONET sites, can provide guidance for future AERONET locations and offers suggestions for product improvements. We account for statistical and sampling noise in our analyses. Sampling noise, variations due to the evaluation of different subsets of the data, causes important changes in error metrics. The consequences of this noise term for product evaluation are discussed.

Aerosol↗
NASA NTRS2024

Noise Reduction for Solar-Induced Fluorescence Retrievals Using Machine Learning and Principal Component Analysis: Simulations and Applications to GOME-2 Satellite Retrievals

We use a spectral-based approach that employs principal component analysis along with a relatively shallow artificial neural network (NN) to substantially reduce noise and other artifacts in terrestrial chlorophyll solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) retrievals. SIF is a very small emission at red and far-red wavelengths that is difficult to measure and is highly sensitive to random errors and systematic artifacts. Our approach relies upon an assumption that a trained NN can effectively reconstruct the total SIF signal from a relatively small number of leading principal components of the satellite-observed far-red radiance spectra without using information from the trailing modes that contain most of the random errors. We test the approach with simulated reflectance spectra produced with a full atmospheric and surface radiative transfer model using different observing and geophysical parameters and various noise levels. Resulting noisy and noise-reduced retrieved SIF values are compared with true values to assess performance. We then apply our noise reduction approach to SIF derived from two different satellite spectrometers. For evaluation, since the truth in this case is unknown, we compare SIF retrievals from two independent sensors with each other. We also compare the noise-reduced SIF temporal variations with those from an independent gross primary product (GPP) product that should display similar variations. Results show that our noise reduction approach improves capture of SIF seasonal and inter-annual variability. Our approach should be applicable to many noisy data products derived from spectral measurements. Our methodology does not replace the original retrieval algorithms; rather the original noisy retrievals are needed as the target for the NN training process.

noise reduction, solar-induced fluorescence, SIF, ↗
NASA NTRS1980

Tunable birefringent networks

Consideration is given to mechanically tuned birefringent filters for the spectral range 4500-7500 A with bandpasses as narrow as 50 mA and stability of better than 5 mA. Two tuning techniques are described: optical path change and waveplate tuning. The tuning techniques are mechanically simple and require minimal demands on encoders and drive electronics. Tuning to a random wavelength can be accomplished in less than one second while adjacent wavelengths can be reached in a fraction of a second.

Title, A. M.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Systematic data interpretation of remote sensing in the reception of hydrocarbons, volume 1

The utilization of MSS-LANDSAT and RADAR imagery in the definition of morphostructural anomalies, which are indicative of hydrocarbon entrapment sites in the limit of the Middle and Lower Amazons basins was systemized. The identification and classification of the morphostructural anomalies were accomplished by means of the drainage network interpretation, based on the criteria previously proposed. Thirty anomalies were recognized, being subdivided into twenty domes, two fault controlled domes, six structural depressions, one fault controlled structural depression and one structure developed on a tilted fault block. Many anomalies are not randomly located. Rather, they seem to be aligned according to directions ENE and NNW, suggesting the presence of morphstructural trends in this part of the Amazons Basin. Significant orientations of lineaments were determined through statistical analysis, which defined many regional trends. The directions coincide with morphostructural trends orientations and with the directions of important structures in the Precambrian basement.

Demiranda, F. P.↗
NASA NTRS2017

A Trilateration Scheme for Relative Positioning

We introduce a trilateration scheme that evaluates the 3-dimensional (3-D) relative position between a reference spacecraft and a target spacecraft using raw-range measurements from a distance baseline of known locations, which we call “anchors”. The anchors can be antennas of a ground-based network (e.g., Deep Space Network (DSN) or Near Earth Network (NEN) stations), or satellites of a spacebased network (e.g., global positioning system (GPS) or tracking and data relay satellite (TDRS)). We define raw-range as the range that includes all the systematic errors that occur during range measurements. A unique feature of this approach is that accurate relative position is derived from a “differencing function” of raw-range measurements of the reference spacecraft and target spacecraft, thereby eliminating most of the systematic errors, such as media effects, ephemeris errors, instrument delays, clock bias, etc. There can be an arbitrary number of target spacecraft, and relative positioning of target spacecraft with respect to the reference spacecraft can be done simultaneously. In this paper, we first assume an idealized system in which clocks on the reference and target spacecraft are synchronized, with clocks of the anchors synchronized as well. We develop a novel iterative algorithm that computes the relative position of the target spacecraft with respect to the reference spacecraft. We illustrate the relative positioning method using the scenario of a network of three ground stations (i.e., the anchors) at Goldstone, California, USA, Madrid, Spain, and Marlargue, Argentina tracking two spacecraft at geosynchronous orbit distance. We demonstrate that the algorithm converges to submeter accuracy in estimating the relative position, in the presence of random errors and systematic errors in raw-range measurements, and in the presence of angular errors in estimating the pointing vectors between the anchors and the reference spacecraft. Next, we relax the requirement of perfect time synchronization between spacecraft, and show that by using an additional anchor, one can estimate and remove the clock biases between the reference and target spacecraft. We add a ground station at Kourou to the above example of three ground stations of Goldstone, Madrid, and Marlargue, and demonstrate that the updated algorithm also converges to meter-level accuracy (submeter in some cases) in the presence of clock biases in addition to the random errors, systematic errors, and angular errors as shown in the above case. We compare this scheme with a similar trilateration scheme for relative positioning scheme first proposed by Montenbruck in 2002.

Cheung, Kar-Ming↗
NASA NTRS2021

Synthesizing Disparate LiDAR and Satellite Datasets through Deep Learning to Generate Wall-to-Wall Regional Inventories for the Complex, Mixed-Species Forests of the Eastern United States

Light detection and ranging (LiDAR) has become a commonly-used tool for generating remotely-sensed forest inventories. However, LiDAR-derived forest inventories have remained uncommon at a regional scale due to varying parameters among LiDAR data acquisitions and the availability of sufficient calibration data. Here, we present a model using a 3-D convolutional neural network (CNN), a form of deep learning capable of scanning a LiDAR point cloud, combined with coincident satellite data (spectral, phenology, and disturbance history). We compared this approach to traditional modeling used for making forest predictions from LiDAR data (height metrics and random forest) and found that the CNN had consistently lower uncertainty. We then applied the CNN to public data over six New England states in the USA, generating maps of 14 forest attributes at a 10 m resolution over 85% of the region. Aboveground biomass estimates produced a root mean square error of 36 Mg ha−1 (44%) and were within the 97.5% confidence of independent county-level estimates for 33 of 38 or 86.8% of the counties examined. CNN predictions for stem density and percentage of conifer attributes were moderately successful, while predictions for detailed species groupings were less successful. The approach shows promise for improving the prediction of forest attributes from regional LiDAR data and for combining disparate LiDAR datasets into a common framework for large-scale estimation.

Elias Ayrey↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reconstruction of Six-Dimensional Phase Space

A phase space is a mathematical representation of all possible physical states of a system. Particle beams at Fermilab exist within a six-dimensional (6D) phase space defined by three positional components, (x, y, z) and three momentum components, (px, py, pz). To reconstruct this space implies taking measurement data from detectors and mapping out particle behavior using computational methods. The beam detectors, however, are only able to detect spatial distribution among the events of the beam, therefore being limited to positional data. Also, due to the vast number of events in a particle beam, it is extremely difficult to analyze and differentiate every single one’s behavior. However, with Machine Learning (ML), which can distinguish between patterns and map out particle behavior more efficiently. We first used the particle beam software, G4beamline, to simulate a 10,000-event muon beam, adjusting parameters such as initial momentum magnitude (p¬0) and virtual detector position. Using ten virtual detectors, we analyzed p0 values such that minimum 9,990 events were analyzed by every detector. We then input the data from these beam simulations to a C++ program, that randomly selects 100 events, and creates a 2D histogram based on spatial distribution, detector position, and event intensity. This process is repeated 100 times to create 100 histograms per p0 value. These images were then input to a modified ResNet18 Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) for training, and to predict p0 from some unseen set of histograms. The model was accurate when trained on momentum increments of 5 MeV/c and provided with denser training samples around highly variable test values. These results displayed machine learning being able to accurately predict p0 from being trained on different particle behaviors.

Shirlee, Jermain [Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development of Digital Twin Predictive Model for PWR Components: Updates on Multi Times Series Temperature Prediction Using Recurrent Neural Network, DMW Fatigue Tests, System Level Thermal-Mechanical-Stress Analysis

The long-term operation (LTO) of nuclear power plant (NPP) beyond their original design life of 40 years, can lead to more material damage associated with cyclic fatigue under thermal-mechanical loading cycles and associated long-term exposure of reactor material to the deleterious reactor-coolant environments. However, under this LTO condition the reactor components can still safely operate but may require more frequent Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) of reactor components. Frequent NDE requirement may lead to frequent shutdown of the NPP. This in turn can lead to power outage and additional NDE-inspection-cost related economic loss. The economic loss can be minimized by reducing uncertainty in life estimation of safety-critical pressure boundary components and by implementing more digital approach such as by using upcoming digital-twin (DT) technology for predicting the structural states (e.g., time and location dependent inside/outside thickness temperature, stress, strain, plastic deformation, etc.) and associated fatigue life of a component in real time. Towards this goal Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) with the sponsorship of DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program is working on the development of a DT framework that can be used for real time environmental fatigue prediction of reactor components. The DT framework is based on limited experiment-data, Artificial-intelligence (AI) – Machine-Learning (ML) - Deep-Learning (DL) based techniques and Multiphysics-computational-mechanics such as finite element (FE) based modeling tools. Towards this overall goal, following are some of the major contributions made during the FY21: 1) Multiple 82/182 dissimilar metal weld (DMW) specimens (both solid-weld and joint-weld representing the actual reactor multi-metal nozzles) were fatigue tested. The resulting fatigue lives were compared to the NUREG-6909 based best-fit and design fatigue curves. Additionally, the results of 52/152 DMW fatigue specimens (which were recently tested at Republic of Korea under the sponsorship of International Nuclear Energy Research Initiative - INERI program) were compared to the NUREG-6909 based best-fit and design fatigue curves. From the comparison of 82/182 and 52/152 DMW test data with NUREG-6909 best-fit curve, most of the reported test data fall way away from the NUREG-6909 suggested best-fit or mean curve. The NUREG-6909 suggested best-fit curve is the best-fit curve of austenitic stainless steel and due to lack of enough data on Nickel-based welds, this is currently being used for predicting the life of Nickel-alloy-based welded components. However, the above observation may require higher scaling factor (e.g., ASME suggested factor of 20 on cycles rather than the current NUREG-6909 suggested factor of 12 on cycles) for scaling the austenitic-stainless-steel best-fit-curve for estimating the design or safe-life of a welded component. Accordingly, for example, if a DMW component experience a strain amplitude of 0.6% the PWR-water life of the component would be 52 cycles instead of 85 cycles. However, more DMW tests are required to further ascertain the above-mentioned observations. 2) A system level CAD and finite element model were developed which consists of reactor pressure vessel (RPV), part of steam generator (SG), part of pressurizer (PRZ), hot leg (HL), and surge line (SL). This is with detailed nozzle geometry and thermal-mechanical material properties of different metals to simulate realistic thermal-mechanical stress under connected system global thermal-mechanical boundary conditions. 3) Different system level heat transfer analyses were performed with estimation of relevant heat transfer coefficients. The resulting data were used in subsequent system level thermal-mechanical stress analysis and for generating spatial-temporal training and validation data for a system level digital-twin based temperature predictor. Transient heat transfer analyses were performed considering thermal boundary condition under design-basis (DB) loading and EDF (Électricité de France) data-based grid-load-following (EDF-GLF) loading cycles. 4) System level thermal-mechanical stress analysis was performed for identifying damage-prone hotspots and for future extension of the model for cyclic state prediction. From the system-level model simulation under DB loading cycle it is found that HL and the SL nozzle that connect to the HL can experience significant stress and strain and could be one of the weakest links in the overall reactor coolant system (RCS). 5) An AI/ML based DT model was developed for multi-time-series temperature prediction at any inside/outside thickness locations of PWR pressure boundary components. This is by using Recurrent-neural-network (RNN) and keras machine learning libraries. The RNN model was validated against two laboratory test-based data sets with one obtained through ANL’s in-air fatigue test system and other through PWR-water test loop. The experimentally validated DT model further validated against FE model results to predict thermal scarification related spatialtemporal temperatures at random locations of a component. The well validated DT model was then used for demonstrating spatial-temporal temperature prediction under 100+ years of reactor operation subjected to combined DB, EDF-GLF and randomized grid-load-following (RANDOMGLF) loading Cycles. The expert-elicitation DT model framework was developed assuming field/input/process measurements can be available from a few existing plant sensors and can readily be used by the NPP operators. The above temperature prediction model will feed to the next-step stress analysis model based on which the life of a component can be predicted in realtime, which is one of our future works.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development of a metamodelling framework for building energy models with application to fifth-generation district heating and cooling networks

Fully defined physics-based building energy models can accurately represent building systems; however, generating models based on high-level parameters is time consuming and simulation time of complex models can be slow. This article discusses the development of a Metamodelling Framework to create metamodels from a building energy modelling dataset. The framework generates metamodels using either linear regression, random forests, or support vector regressions. A fifth-generation district heating and cooling system analysis use case was used to motivate the development of the framework. The use case required quick and accurate representations of annual building loads reported hourly. Typical annual building modelling approaches can result in a runtime of 10 min. The metamodels runtime was reduced to less than 10 s to load and run an annual simulation with user-defined covariates. The results of the metamodel performance and an abbreviated topology analysis based on the motivating use case will be presented.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Community response of soil microorganisms to combined contamination of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and potentially toxic elements in a typical coking plant

Both polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and potentially toxic elements (PTEs) of coking industries impose negative effects on the stability of soil ecosystem. Soil microbes are regarded as an essential moderator of biochemical processes and soil remediation, while their responses to PAHs-PTEs combined contamination are largely unknown. In the present study, soil microbial diversity and community composition in the typical coking plant under the chronic co-exposure of PAHs and PTEs were investigated and microbial interaction networks were built to reveal microbial co-occurrence patterns. The results indicated that the concentrations of PAHs in the soil inside the coking plant were significantly higher than those outside the plant. The mean concentration of ∑16PAHs was 2894.4 ng·g −1 , which is 5.58 times higher than that outside the plant. The average Hg concentration inside the coking plant was 22 times higher than the background value of Hebei province. The soil fungal community inside the coking plant showed lower richness compared with that of outside community, and there are significant difference in the bacterial and fungal community composition between inside and outside of coking plant ( p < 0.01). Predicted contribution of different environmental factors to each dominant species based on random forest identified 20 and 25 biomarkers in bacteria and fungi, respectively, that were highly sensitive to coking plant soil in operation, such as Betaproteobacteria，Sordariomycetes and Dothideomycetes . Bacterial and fungal communities were shaped by the soil chemical properties (pH), PTEs (Hg), and PAHs together in the coking plant soils. Furthermore, the bacterial and fungal interaction patterns were investigated separately or jointly by intradomain and interdomain networks. Competition is the main strategy based on the co-exclusion pattern in fungal community, and the competitive relationship inside the coking plant is more complex than that outside the plant. In contrast, cooperation is the dominant strategy in bacterial networks based on the co-occurrence pattern. The present study provided insights into microbial response strategies and the interactions between bacteria and fungi under long-term combined contamination.

Shen, Qihui↗
DOE OSTI2025

Energy metric prediction for double insertion mutants via the RoseNet deep learning framework

Studying the structural and functional implications of protein mutations is an important task in computational biology and bioinformatics. We leverage our previously proposed RoseNet neural network architecture to predict energy metrics of proteins with double amino acid insertions or deletions (InDels). We train models on previously generated benchmark datasets containing the exhaustive double InDel mutations for three proteins, as well as an additional three proteins for which ∼145k random mutants, each with two InDels, have been generated. We expand on our previous work by evaluating three additional proteins and analyzing domain features that impact the prediction capabilities of RoseNet. These features include InDels into secondary structures and the solvent accessible surface area (SASA) scores of the residues. We uncover further evidence to support that RoseNet has a higher proficiency of generalizing to unseen residue combinations than unseen insertion positions. We also observe that RoseNet produces higher-quality predictions when inserting into a β-sheet over an α-helix. Additionally, when the insertions fall in an area of high SASA, RoseNet often displays better performance than inserting into areas of low SASA.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Designing an Intrusion Detection for an Adjustable Speed Drive System Controlling a Critical Process

In this article, we address the cyber-security problem of industrial control systems (ICSs) when their sensor measurements may be compromised due to an attacker who has intercepted those measurements via a network. We introduce a general-purpose method “Dynamic Watermarking (DW)” to detect potential cyber-intrusions on speed sensor measurements within industrial control systems, which deploy an adjustable speed drive (ASD) to control a critical process. The DW method is injecting a random private low-amplitude signal with a zero mean Gaussian distribution, “watermark”, into one of the input phase voltages powering the ASD system. The watermark signal propagates through the system including pulse width modulation (PWM) power conversion stage and motor, then ultimately appears in the speed sensor measurements. By deploying two statistical DW tests with two proper thresholds, the system can detect potential cyber-intrusions or unobservable cyber-attacks such as replay attacks and false data injection attacks (FDIA). The DW method tested on a laboratory-scale ASD system experimentally to protect the system against cyber-intrusions. This system, powered by a commercial PWM drive operating at 208 V, 3-phase, and 3.7 kW, served as our experimental platform.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine-learning-based investigation of the variables affecting summertime lightning occurrence over the Southern Great Plains

Lightning is affected by many factors, many of which are not routinely measured, well understood, or accounted for in physical models. Several commonly used machine learning (ML) models have been applied to analyze the relationship between Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) data and lightning data from the Earth Networks Total Lightning Network (ENTLN) in order to identify important variables affecting lightning occurrence in the vicinity of the Southern Great Plains (SGP) ARM site during the summer months (June, July, August and September) of 2012 to 2020. Testing various ML models, we found that the random forest model is the best predictor among common classifiers. When convective clouds were detected, it predicts lightning occurrence with an accuracy of 76.9 % and an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.850. Using this model, we further ranked the variables in terms of their effectiveness in nowcasting lightning and identified geometric cloud thickness, rain rate and convective available potential energy (CAPE) as the most effective predictors. The contrast in meteorological variables between no-lightning and frequent-lightning periods was examined for hours with CAPE values conducive to thunderstorm formation. Besides the variables considered for the ML models, surface variables and mid-altitude variables (e.g., equivalent potential temperature and minimum equivalent potential temperature, respectively) have statistically significant contrasts between no-lightning and frequent-lightning hours. For example, the minimum equivalent potential temperature from 700 to 500 hPa is significantly lower during frequent-lightning hours compared with no-lightning hours. Finally, a notable positive relationship between the intracloud (IC) flash fraction and the square root of CAPE ($\sqrt{CAPE}$) was found, suggesting that stronger updrafts increase the height of the electrification zone, resulting in fewer flashes reaching the surface and consequently a greater IC flash fraction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗