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At least 667 records · Page 37

Upper bounds on sequential decoding performance parameters

This paper presents the best obtainable random coding and expurgated upper bounds on the probabilities of undetectable error, of t-order failure (advance to depth t into an incorrect subset), and of likelihood rise in the incorrect subset, applicable to sequential decoding when the metric bias G is arbitrary. Upper bounds on the Pareto exponent are also presented. The G-values optimizing each of the parameters of interest are determined, and are shown to lie in intervals that in general have nonzero widths. The G-optimal expurgated bound on undetectable error is shown to agree with that for maximum likelihood decoding of convolutional codes, and that on failure agrees with the block code expurgated bound. Included are curves evaluating the bounds for interesting choices of G and SNR for a binary-input quantized-output Gaussian additive noise channel.

Jelinek, F.↗

Finite element modeling of stress in the Nazca plate - Driving forces and plate boundary earthquakes

The state of stress within the Nazca plate due to plate driving forces and large plate boundary earthquakes has been analyzed by applying a finite element method using the wave front solution technique to models of the intraplate stress field in a single plate using a refined grid. Although only static elastic models have been explicitly calculated, certain limiting cases of an elastic plate over a viscous asthenosphere were also treated. A state of nearly east-west compression inferred from the source mechanism of thrust earthquakes in the interior of the plate requires ridge pushing forces. The net pulling force on the oceanic plate by the subducted slab has a maximum value comparable to pushing forces. The estimated horizontal deviatoric stress in intraplate regions, based on potential forces associated with the ridge, is on the order of a few hundred bars. The intraplate stress field in the region of the 1960 earthquake may change by a few tens of bars at most once the asthenosphere has relaxed, with changes on the order of one bar occurring at greater distances into the plate. The changes in the intraplate stress field are probably not noticeable unless the lithosphere is near failure.

Richardson, R. M.↗

Fed, but not Fasted, Adrenalectomized Rats Survive the Stress of Hemorrhage and Hypovolemia

We have recently shown that conscious adrenalectomized rats exhibit nearly normal recovery of arterial blood pressure during the 5 h after hemorrhage. In those experiments, it appeared that a previous reduction in food intake might have compromised the recovery of blood pressure and increased mortality. These experiments were designed to test in conscious sham-adrenalectomized (control) and adrenalectomized rats prepared with indwelling arterial and venous cannulae: 1. The effects of a 20- to 24-h fast (compared to rats fed ab libitum) on the mobilization of plasma substrates and recovery of arterial blood pressure after a 15 ml/kg - 5 min hemorrhage, and 2. Vascular responsivity to pressor agents in fed or fasted groups before or 2 h after hemorrhage. In all rats hemorrhage resulted in decreased arterial pressure and heart rate. Arterial pressure recovered to near normal in both fed and fasted control groups and in the led adrenalectomized rats, and all of these rats survived for 24 h after stress. By contrast, in the fasted adrenalectomized rats, arterial pressure recovered only during the first 1.5 - 2 h and then failed, resulting in 100% mortality by 3-5 h. Compared to the other three groups, in which substrate levels either increased or remained fairly stable, plasma glucose and beta-hydoxybutyrate concentrations fell steadily, from 1.5-2 h after hemorrhage until death occurred in the fasted adrenalectomized rats. Basal ACTH concentrations were elevated cormpared to control values in both adrenalectomized groups (fed and fasted). Hemorrhage caused increases in plasma ACTH in all groups; the magnitude of the responses did not differ among the groups. The dilution of Evans' blue dve after hemorrhage (used as an index of fluid movement into the vascular space) was not different in contol and adrenalectomized rats (either fed or fasted). There were no differences in pressor responses to phenylephrine, vasopressin, or angiotensin-II between the fed and fasted condition in the control rats either before or after hemorrhage. There was a fasting-associated decrease in vascular responsivity, to vasopressin, but normal responsivity to phenylephrine and angiotensin-II, in the adrenal-ectomized rats both before and after hemorrhage. We conclude that: (1) since fed adrenalectomized rats all survived the stress, adrenal hormones are not required for survival unless fasting is a prior condition; (2) vascular responsiveness to phenylephrine and angiotensin-II is not altered by fasting and is, therefore, probably not the proximate cause of cardiovascular svstem failure; and (3) from these data we cannot distinguish between a failure in substrate supply and a failure in some component of the cardiovascular svstem, other than vascular responsivity, that results in death after hemorrhage in fasted adrenalectomized rats.

Darlington, Daniel N.↗

Reliability-Based Control Design for Uncertain Systems

This paper presents a robust control design methodology for systems with probabilistic parametric uncertainty. Control design is carried out by solving a reliability-based multi-objective optimization problem where the probability of violating design requirements is minimized. Simultaneously, failure domains are optimally enlarged to enable global improvements in the closed-loop performance. To enable an efficient numerical implementation, a hybrid approach for estimating reliability metrics is developed. This approach, which integrates deterministic sampling and asymptotic approximations, greatly reduces the numerical burden associated with complex probabilistic computations without compromising the accuracy of the results. Examples using output-feedback and full-state feedback with state estimation are used to demonstrate the ideas proposed.

Crespo, Luis G.↗

LaSalle Leaking Pin PIE Proposal

Determine the most probable root cause of the LaSalle fuel rod failure, distinguish primary failure mechanisms from post-failure degradation, and assess whether the condition is isolated or indicative of a broader issue affecting similar rods or assemblies. Results will support decisions related to core operation, fuel management, and corrective actions.

LaSalle↗

Test particle propagation in magnetostatic turbulence. 1. Failure of the diffusion approximation

The equation which governs the quasi-linear approximation to the ensemble and gyro-phase averaged one-body probability distribution function is constructed from first principles. This derived equation is subjected to a thorough investigation in order to calculate the possible limitations of the quasi-linear approximation. It is shown that the reduction of this equation to a standard diffusion equation in the Markovian limit can be accomplished through the application of the adiabatic approximation. A numerical solution of the standard diffusion equation in the Markovian limit is obtained for the narrow parallel beam injection. Comparison of the diabatic and adiabatic results explicitly demonstrates the failure of the Markovian description of the probability distribution function. Through the use of a linear time-scale extension the failure of the adiabatic approximation, which leads to the Markovian limit, is shown to be due to mixing of the relaxation and interaction time scales in the presence of the strong mean field.

Klimas, A. J.↗

Evaluating Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris Risk Assessments Using Anomaly Data

The accuracy of micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) risk assessments can be difficult to evaluate. A team from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) has completed a study that compared MMOD-related failures on operational satellites to predictions of how many of those failures should occur using NASA's TM"s MMOD risk assessment methodology and tools. The study team used the Poisson probability to quantify the degree of inconsistency between the predicted and reported numbers of failures. Many elements go into a risk assessment, and each of those elements represent a possible source of uncertainty or bias that will influence the end result. There are also challenges in obtaining accurate and useful data on MMOD-related failures.

Squire, Michael↗

Prioritizing Uncertainties in Hydrogen Contribution to Risk in Post-Crash Outcomes for Rail

This report presents analysis from Sandia National Laboratories predicting contributions to risk associated with the use of hydrogen technology for rail. Event sequence diagrams are used to describe possible accident scenarios and progressions. Initiating event frequencies and branch event probabilities for each scenario are quantified with uncertainty using distributions fit to Federal Railroad Administration and U.S. Department of Transportation Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration data on applicable accidents from 2000 to 2020. Uncertainty is propagated through the event sequence diagram to estimate the frequency and conditional probability of accident end states. The analysis identifies four scenarios with significant contributions to risk from hydrogen that are predicted to occur relatively frequently, which may inform priorities for reducing uncertainty. These scenarios are 1) overpressure events resulting from collisions with hydrogen release due to mechanical damage and delayed ignition, 2) jet fire events resulting from collisions with hydrogen release due to mechanical damage and immediate ignition, 3) jet fires resulting from fire or explosion initiating events involving the hydrogen tank and correct operation of the thermally-activated pressure relief device (TPRD) subsequent to the thermal insult, and 4) pressure burst resulting from fire or explosion initiating events involving the hydrogen tank and failure of the TPRD. Delayed and immediate hydrogen ignition probabilities are identified as being highly uncertain and potential candidates for reducing conservatism in the predicted frequencies for these two scenarios.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Failure analysis and modeling of a VAXcluster system

This paper discusses the results of a measurement-based analysis of real error data collected from a DEC VAXcluster multicomputer system. In addition to evaluating basic system dependability characteristics such as error and failure distributions and hazard rates for both individual machines and for the VAXcluster, reward models were developed to analyze the impact of failures on the system as a whole. The results show that more than 46 percent of all failures were due to errors in shared resources. This is despite the fact that these errors have a recovery probability greater than 0.99. The hazard rate calculations show that not only errors, but also failures occur in bursts. Approximately 40 percent of all failures occur in bursts and involved multiple machines. This result indicates that correlated failures are significant. Analysis of rewards shows that software errors have the lowest reward (0.05 vs 0.74 for disk errors). The expected reward rate (reliability measure) of the VAXcluster drops to 0.5 in 18 hours for the 7-out-of-7 model and in 80 days for the 3-out-of-7 model.

Tang, Dong↗

Data Requirements for Application of Risk-Based Dynamic Contingency Analysis to Evaluate Hurricane Impact to Electrical Infrastructure in Puerto Rico

This paper presents a risk-based dynamic contingency analysis framework that was used to evaluate the hurricane impact to electrical infrastructure in Puerto Rico. PNNL developed a scalable risk-based framework for identifying high-voltage transmission resilience improvements by classifying and prioritizing high-risk power grid contingencies (system failures) under hurricane impact. The risk-based framework is founded on grid outage definitions with their associated probabilities of occurrence from hurricane events, in combination with an impact assessment derived from detailed dynamic cascading failure analysis. This paper focuses on a discussion around data requirements for transmission resilience planning for hurricane events, derived from the development of the risk-based framework and its application to Puerto Rico. This paper launches an important first step in encouraging the engineering community and power system industry to move towards establishing resilience planning as a routine practice. Since actual results for Puerto Rico contain sensitive information, sample simulation results will be used to illustrate the data requirements and risk-based dynamic cascading framework on the Puerto Rico power grid, as well as demonstrate the potential for such a simulation framework. The paper includes a discussion on the lessons learned, importance and need for improved datasets that are not usually considered in traditional power system planning. The paper will also elaborate on how the scalable simulation framework and datasets might be expanded to larger footprints and leveraged for modelling other types of natural disasters.

DCAT, Puerto Rico, hurricane, Power System Stabili↗

Reliability computation using fault tree analysis

A method is presented for calculating event probabilities from an arbitrary fault tree. The method includes an analytical derivation of the system equation and is not a simulation program. The method can handle systems that incorporate standby redundancy and it uses conditional probabilities for computing fault trees where the same basic failure appears in more than one fault path.

Chelson, P. O.↗

Developments in new aircraft tire tread materials

Comparative laboratory and field tests were conducted on experimental and state-of-the-art aircraft tire tread materials in a program aimed at seeking new elastomeric materials which would provide improved aircraft tire tread wear, traction, and blowout resistance in the interests of operational safety and economy. The experimental stock was formulated of natural rubber and amorphous vinyl polybutadiene to provide high thermal-oxidative resistance, a characteristic pursued on the premise that thermal oxidation is involved both in the normal abrasion or wear of tire treads and probably in the chain of events leading to blowout failures. Results from the tests demonstrate that the experimental stock provided better heat buildup (hysteresis) and fatigue properties, at least equal wet and dry traction, and greater wear resistance than the state-of-the-art stock.

Yager, T. J.↗

The GRASP 3: Graphical Reliability Analysis Simulation Program. Version 3: A users' manual and modelling guide

Alternate definitions of system failure create complex analysis for which analytic solutions are available only for simple, special cases. The GRASP methodology is a computer simulation approach for solving all classes of problems in which both failure and repair events are modeled according to the probability laws of the individual components of the system.

Phillips, D. T.↗

XUV observations of Capella and the local interstellar medium

The present study is concerned with the first observations of Capella in the wavelength region from 170 A to 450 A. The essential feature of the obtained data is related to the absence of a significant signal at 304 A despite a two sigma sensitivity of 0.6 photons per (sq cm sec) at earth. An investigation shows that the expected Capella 304 A flux at lies in the range from 1.4 to 2.7 photons per (sq cm sec). It is concluded that the failure to detect 304 A flux from Capella is probably the result of intervening absorption. The acquired data are useful in setting a lower limit on the total helium column density, N(He), required to absorb the 304 A flux as a function of the temperature of the local interstellar medium.

Bobroff, N.↗

Some methods of estimating a coverage parameter

To demonstrate the high reliability of fault-tolerant computing systems, experimental testing can be performed by injecting faults into their hardware and observing the times needed to detect and isolate failed components and reconfigure the good components. Coverage, a parameter measuring continued system success, is the probability that recovery occurs before other, perhaps catastrophic, component failures occur. Methods of estimating coverage are given for the case of randomly selecting a subset of the pins or chips for testing. Pin-level samples of times to recovery are treated by the Type I censoring model often used in life testing.

Lee, L. D.↗

NDE of ceramics and ceramic composites

Although nondestructive evaluation (NDE) techniques for ceramics are fairly well developed, they are difficult to apply in many cases for high probability detection of the minute flaws that can cause failure in monolithic ceramics. Conventional NDE techniques are available for monolithic and fiber reinforced ceramic matrix composites, but more exact quantitative techniques needed are still being investigated and developed. Needs range from flaw detection to below 100 micron levels in monolithic ceramics to global imaging of fiber architecture and matrix densification anomalies in ceramic composites. NDE techniques that will ultimately be applicable to production and quality control of ceramic structures are still emerging from the lab. Needs are different depending on the processing stage, fabrication method, and nature of the finished product. NDE techniques are being developed in concert with materials processing research where they can provide feedback information to processing development and quality improvement. NDE techniques also serve as research tools for materials characterization and for understanding failure processes, e.g., during thermomechanical testing.

Vary, Alex↗

Astrophysics from the moon

Preliminary studies have been conducted for the concept of a lunar base supporting astronomical instruments of power comparable to the VLA, giving attention to aperture-synthesis arrays which could improve angular resolution to the level of a few microarcsec. The only conceivable mode of catastrophic instrument failure envisioned would be a meteorite strike, although the probability for this is small and comparable to that encountered in orbital instruments. Nevertheless, lunar dust may pose problems, lunar soil may be inadequate for support of instrument structures, moonquakes may disturb instruments, gravitational deflection may distort them, and heat radiation and scattered light may exert troublesome influences on observations. Representative parameters for a specific system are presented.

Burke, Bernard F.↗

Orbital debris risk analysis and survivability enhancement for Freedom Station manned modules

This paper briefly reviews how 'probability of penetration' analyses are currently performed at NASA, and discusses extension of this procedure to a 'probability of loss' analysis through identifying penetration hazards and failure modes. It goes on to discuss alternatives for increasing crew safety through redesign and/or augmentation of interior manned module systems, and describes an elementary analysis maximizing crew safety considering one identified penetration-induced failure mode (depressurization) and one interior design factor (number of hatches open).

Williamsen, Joel E.↗