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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

High-precision predictions of properties of chemically disordered crystals

Multiple scattering theory (MST) combined with density functional theory (DFT) allows to predict properties of chemically disordered materials from the first principles. However, such predictions often suffer from the systematic errors, which depend on crystal geometry. Each computed property of a particular crystal structure typically has a relatively small random error and a larger systematic error. Cancellation of systematic errors allows more accurate predictions. We propose a computational methodology based on the subtraction of the systematic errors in MST. To exemplify it, we apply it to the precipitated alloys. Considering precipitation strengthening in Ni superalloys, we compute the relative enthalpies of the competing Ni3(Al,Ti)1 crystal structures with a chemical disorder on the Al+Ti sublattice. Such predicted composition-structure-property dependencies are useful for the guided design of the next-generation alloys with improved strength. Our predictions are validated by comparison with the results of other DFT methods (having a higher computational cost) and with experiment. We acknowledge funding of the guided design of stronger superalloys for airspace by NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) via Transformational Tools and Technologies (TTT) Project.

Computational↗
NASA NTRS2009

The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD): Instrument Status and Performance Predictions

The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is an innovative radiometer which offers new and unique remotely sensed observations of both extreme oceanic wind events and strong precipitation. It is based on the airborne Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) [Uhlhorn and Black, 2004]. The HIRAD instrument advances beyond the current nadir viewing SFMR to an equivalent wide-swath SFMR imager using passive microwave synthetic thinned aperture radiometer (STAR) technology [Ruf et al., 1988]. This sensor operates over 4-7 GHz, where the required tropical cyclone remote sensing physics has been validated by both SFMR and WindSat radiometer [Bettenhausen et al., 2006; Brown et al., 2006]. HIRAD incorporates a new and unique array antenna design along with several technologies successfully demonstrated by the Lightweight Rain Radiometer instrument [Ruf et al., 2002; Ruf and Principe, 2003]. HIRAD will be a compact, lightweight, low-power instrument with no moving parts that will produce wide-swath imagery of ocean winds and rain in hurricane conditions. Accurate observations of surface ocean vector winds (OVW) with high spatial and temporal resolution are required for understanding and predicting tropical cyclones. The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is an innovative architecture which offers new and unique remotely sensed observations of both extreme oceanic wind events and strong precipitation. It is based on the airborne Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), which is a proven remote sensing technique for observing tropical cyclone (TC) ocean surface wind speeds and rain rates. The proposed HIRAD instrument advances beyond the current nadir viewing SFMR to an equivalent wide-swath SFMR imager using passive microwave synthetic thinned aperture radiometer (STAR) technology combined with a a unique array antenna design. The overarching design concept of HIRAD is to combine the multi-frequency C-band observing strategy of the SFMR with STAR technology to produce a wide-swath imager. Single frequency STAR technology The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is an innovative radiometer which offers new and unique remotely sensed observations of both extreme oceanic wind events and strong precipitation. It is based on the airborne Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) [Uhlhorn and Black, 2004]. The HIRAD instrument advances beyond the current nadir viewing SFMR to an equivalent wide-swath SFMR imager using passive microwave synthetic thinned aperture radiometer (STAR) technology [Ruf et al., 1988]. This sensor operates over 4-7 GHz, where the required tropical cyclone remote sensing physics has been validated by both SFMR and WindSat radiometer [Bettenhausen et al., 2006; Brown et al., 2006]. HIRAD incorporates a new and unique array antenna design along with several technologies successfully demonstrated by the Lightweight Rain Radiometer instrument [Ruf et al., 2002; Ruf and Principe, 2003]. HIRAD will be a compact, lightweight, low-power instrument with no moving parts that will produce wide-swath imagery of ocean winds and rain in hurricane conditions. Accurate observations of surface ocean vector winds (OVW) with high spatial and temporal resolution are required for understanding and predicting tropical cyclones. The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is an innovative architecture which offers new and unique remotely sensed observations of both extreme oceanic wind events and strong precipitation. It is based on the airborne Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), which is a proven remote sensing technique for observing tropical cyclone (TC) ocean surface wind speeds and rain rates. The proposed HIRAD instrument advances beyond the current nadir viewing SFMR to an equivalent wide-swath SFMR imager using passive microwave synthetic thinned aperture radiometer (STAR) technology combined with a a unique array antenna design. The overarching design concept of HIRAD is to combine the multi-frequency C-banbserving strategy of the SFMR with STAR technology to produce a wide-swath imager. Single frequency STAR technology

Ruf, Christopher↗
NASA NTRS1972

Applications of remote sensing to stream discharge predictions

A feasibility study has been initiated on the use of remote earth observations for augmenting stream discharge prediction for the design and/or operation of major reservoir systems, pumping systems and irrigation systems. The near-term objectives are the interpolation of sparsely instrumented precipitation surveillance networks and the direct measurement of water loss by evaporation. The first steps of the study covered a survey of existing reservoir systems, stream discharge prediction methods, gage networks and the development of a self-adaptive variation of the Kentucky Watershed model, SNOPSET, that includes snowmelt. As a result of these studies, a special three channel scanner is being built for a small aircraft, which should provide snow, temperature and water vapor maps for the spatial and temporal interpolation of stream gages.

Krause, F. R.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Research Relative to High Spatial Resolution Passive Microwave Sounding Systems

Methods to obtain high resolution passive microwave weather observations, and understanding of their probable impact on numerical weather prediction accuracy were investigated. The development of synthetic aperture concepts for geosynchronous passive microwave sounders were studied. The effects of clouds, precipitation, surface phenomena, and atmospheric thermal fine structure on a scale of several kilometers were examined. High resolution passive microwave sounders (e.g., AMSU) with an increased number of channels will produce initialization data for numerical weather prediction (NWP) models with both increased spatial resolution and coverage. The development of statistical models for error growth in high resolution primitive equation NWP models which permit the consequences of various observing system alternatives, including sensors and assimilation times and procedures is discussed. A high resolution three dimensional primitive equation NWP model to determine parameters in an error growth model similar to that formulated by Lorenz, but with more degrees of freedom is utilized.

Staelin, D. H.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Evaluation of Extreme Soil Moisture Conditions During the 2020 Sahel Floods and Implications for Disease Outbreaks

The June-October 2020 growing season was characterized by sustained and extreme flooding across the African Sahel. One consequence of flooding events such as this is outbreaks of vector borne diseases (VBDs) which are often associated with climate anomalies. In this study, data from the soil moisture active passive (SMAP) mission is used with other soil moisture and precipitation data to show that the 2020 Sahelian growing season was the most extreme over the past four decades, ranking first in seasonally accumulated precipitation, which on average exceeded the climatology by around 300 mm. VBD outbreaks of Rift Valley fever and Chikungunya followed in Mauritania/Senegal and Chad, respectively. In some cases, soil moisture is a better indicator of VBD outbreak risk than precipitation, which has so far been more commonly used in studies of VBD outbreaks. It is expected that this finding will inform future monitoring and prediction efforts for VBD risk.

Afrocam Saje;↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying wildfire drivers and predictability in boreal peatlands using a two-step error-correcting machine learning framework in TeFire v1.0

Abstract. Wildfires are becoming an increasing challenge to the sustainability of boreal peatland (BP) ecosystems and can alter the stability of boreal carbon storage. However, predicting the occurrence of rare and extreme BP fires proves to be challenging, and gaining a quantitative understanding of the factors, both natural and anthropogenic, inducing BP fires remains elusive. Here, we quantified the predictability of BP fires and their primary controlling factors from 1997 to 2015 using a two-step correcting machine learning (ML) framework that combines multiple ML classifiers, regression models, and an error-correcting technique. We found that (1) the adopted oversampling algorithm effectively addressed the unbalanced data and improved the recall rate by 26.88 %–48.62 % when using multiple datasets, and the error-correcting technique tackled the overestimation of fire sizes during fire seasons; (2) nonparametric models outperformed parametric models in predicting fire occurrences, and the random forest machine learning model performed the best, with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranging from 0.83 to 0.93 across multiple fire datasets; and (3) four sets of factor-control simulations consistently indicated the dominant role of temperature, air dryness, and climate extreme (i.e., frost) for boreal peatland fires, overriding the effects of precipitation, wind speed, and human activities. Our findings demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of ML techniques in predicting rare and extreme fire events and disentangle the primary factors determining BP fires, which are critical for predicting future fire risks under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1986

Initialization of a mesoscale model with satellite derived temperature profiles

The abilities of rawinsonde data and Tiros-N satellite derived temperature profile data to depict mesoscale precipitation accumulation are evaluated. Four mesoscale simulations using combinations of temperature, low-level wind, and low-level wind initialization were performed with the limited area mesoscale prediction system (LAMPS) model. Comparisons of the simulations with operational LFM forecast accumulations reveal that the LAMPS model simulations provide a better depiction of the observed precipitation accumulation than the LFM forecasts, and the satellite temperature profiles produce better mesoscale precipitation accumulation forecasts than the rawinsonde temperature data.

Kalb, Michael W.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Contemplating Synergistic Algorithms for the NASA ACE Mission

ACE is a proposed Tier 2 NASA Decadal Survey mission that will focus on clouds, aerosols, and precipitation as well as ocean ecosystems. The primary objective of the clouds component of this mission is to advance our ability to predict changes to the Earth's hydrological cycle and energy balance in response to climate forcings by generating observational constraints on future science questions, especially those associated with the effects of aerosol on clouds and precipitation. ACE will continue and extend the measurement heritage that began with the A-Train and that will continue through Earthcare. ACE planning efforts have identified several data streams that can contribute significantly to characterizing the properties of clouds and precipitation and the physical processes that force these properties. These include dual frequency Doppler radar, high spectral resolution lidar, polarimetric visible imagers, passive microwave and submillimeter wave radiometry. While all these data streams are technologically feasible, their total cost is substantial and likely prohibitive. It is, therefore, necessary to critically evaluate their contributions to the ACE science goals. We have begun developing algorithms to explore this trade space. Specifically, we will describe our early exploratory algorithms that take as input the set of potential ACE-like data streams and evaluate critically to what extent each data stream influences the error in a specific cloud quantity retrieval.

precipitation↗
NASA NTRS2005

Global Positioning System (GPS) Precipitable Water in Forecasting Lightning at Spaceport Canaveral

Using meteorology data, focusing on precipitable water (PW), obtained during the 2000-2003 thunderstorm seasons in Central Florida, this paper will, one, assess the skill and accuracy measurements of the current Mazany forecasting tool and, two, provide additional forecasting tools that can be used in predicting lightning. Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) are located in east Central Florida. KSC and CCAFS process and launch manned (NASA Space Shuttle) and unmanned (NASA and Air Force Expendable Launch Vehicles) space vehicles. One of the biggest cost impacts is unplanned launch scrubs due to inclement weather conditions such as thunderstorms. Each launch delay/scrub costs over a quarter million dollars, and the need to land the Shuttle at another landing site and return to KSC costs approximately $ 1M. Given the amount of time lost and costs incurred, the ability to accurately forecast (predict) when lightning will occur can result in significant cost and time savings. All lightning prediction models were developed using binary logistic regression. Lightning is the dependent variable and is binary. The independent variables are the Precipitable Water (PW) value for a given time of the day, the change in PW up to 12 hours, the electric field mill value, and the K-index value. In comparing the Mazany model results for the 1999 period B against actual observations for the 2000-2003 thunderstorm seasons, differences were found in the False Alarm Rate (FAR), Probability of Detection (POD) and Hit Rate (H). On average, the False Alarm Rate (FAR) increased by 58%, the Probability of Detection (POD) decreased by 31% and the Hit Rate decreased by 20%. In comparing the performance of the 6 hour forecast period to the performance of the 1.5 hour forecast period for the Mazany model, the FAR was lower by 15% and the Hit Rate was higher by 7%. However, the POD for the 6 hour forecast period was lower by 16% as compared to the POD of the 1.5 hour forecast period. Neither forecast period performed at the accuracy measures expected. A 2-Hr Forecasting Tool was developed to support a Phase I Lightning Advisory, which requires a 30-minute lead time for predicting lightning.

Kehrer, Kristen↗
DOE OSTI2025

Niobium hydride formation in superconducting qubit thin films

The formation of nonsuperconducting hydrides in 160–170-nm-thick films of niobium is examined. We identify six elastically distinct orientation relationships ɛ−Nb 4 ⁢H 3 takes within the matrix, solid-solution 𝛼−NbH 𝑥 phase. We employ a phase field model to assess the impact of elastic energy induced by the strain of phase transformation on the morphology and transformation dynamics of ɛ precipitates within a thin film. We consider the dimensions of the thin film, crystallographic growth direction, and diffusion rates to predict the timescale of hydride evolution. Leveraging the finite element method, we predict two-dimensional and three-dimensional equilibrium shapes of ɛ-hydrides within a bulk sample and in a thin film that has a traction-free surface. Our results suggest that niobium hydrides migrate to the free surface of the film. Precipitates which reach the free surface coarsen, while precipitates within the film dissolve. Precipitates in both two dimensions and three dimensions experience a repulsive interaction force at the free surface, that is attractive in the bulk, shown in experiment and theory of previous studies.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2022

High-precision predictions of properties of chemically disordered crystals

Multiple scattering theory (MST) combined with density functional theory (DFT) allows to predict properties of chemically disordered materials from the first principles. However, such predictions often suffer from the systematic errors, which depend on crystal geometry. Each computed property of a particular crystal structure typically has a relatively small random error and a larger systematic error. Cancellation of systematic errors allows more accurate predictions. We propose a computational methodology based on the subtraction of the systematic errors in MST. To exemplify it, we apply it to the precipitated alloys. Considering precipitation strengthening in Ni superalloys, we compute the relative enthalpies of the competing Ni_3(Al_{1-x}Ti_x)_1 crystal structures with a chemical disorder on the Al+Ti sublattice. Such predicted composition-structure-property dependencies are useful for the guided design of the next-generation alloys with improved strength. Our predictions are validated by comparison with the results of other DFT methods (having a higher computational cost) and with experiment.

density functional theory↗
NASA NTRS1982

The influence of ground moisture conditions in North America on summer climate as modeled in the GISS GCM

A new general circulation model, developed to run on a coarse grid (8 x 10 deg resolution) at the Goddard institute for Space Studies is employed to investigate the potential use of ground moisture anomalies for seasonal climate prediction. For three different summertime simulations, the ground moisture on 1 June over the United States is reduced to 1/4 of its value in the control run. The results show that the subsequent surface air temperature is significantly higher throughout most of the summer, while the precipitation decreases, especially in June and July. Knowledge of late spring ground moisture anomalies should thus be an aid in predicting summertime climate.

Rind, D.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Impact of AIRS Thermodynamic Profiles on Precipitation Forecasts for Atmospheric River Cases Affecting the Western United States

This project is a collaborative activity between the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center and the NOAA Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) to evaluate a SPoRT Advanced Infrared Sounding Radiometer (AIRS: Aumann et al. 2003) enhanced moisture analysis product. We test the impact of assimilating AIRS temperature and humidity profiles above clouds and in partly cloudy regions, using the three-dimensional variational Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation (DA) system (Developmental Testbed Center 2012) to produce a new analysis. Forecasts of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model initialized from the new analysis are compared to control forecasts without the additional AIRS data. We focus on some cases where atmospheric rivers caused heavy precipitation on the US West Coast. We verify the forecasts by comparison with dropsondes and the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) Blended Total Precipitable Water product.

Zavodsky, Bradley T.↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Intrinsic 150‐Day Periodicity of the Southern Hemisphere Extratropical Large‐Scale Atmospheric Circulation

Abstract The variability of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropical large‐scale circulation is dominated by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), whose timescale is extensively used as a key metric in evaluating state‐of‐the‐art climate models. Past observational and theoretical studies suggest that the SAM lacks any internally generated (intrinsic) periodicity. Here, we show, using observations and a climate model hierarchy, that the SAM has an intrinsic 150‐day periodicity. This periodicity is robustly detectable in the power spectra and principal oscillation patterns (aka dynamical mode decomposition) of the zonal‐mean circulation, and in hemispheric‐scale precipitation and ocean surface wind stress. The 150‐day period is consistent with the predictions of a new reduced‐order model for the SAM, which suggests that this periodicity is associated with a complex interaction of turbulent eddies and zonal wind anomalies, as the latter propagate from low to high latitudes. These findings present a rare example of periodic oscillations arising from the internal dynamics of the extratropical turbulent circulations. Based on these findings, we further propose a new metric for evaluating climate models, and show that some of the previously reported shortcomings and improvements in simulating SAM's variability connect to the models' ability in reproducing this periodicity. We argue that this periodicity should be considered in evaluating climate models and understanding the past, current, and projected Southern Hemisphere climate variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The GFDL Variable-Resolution Global Chemistry-Climate Model for Research at the Nexus of US Climate and Air Quality Extremes

We present a variable-resolution global chemistry-climate model (AM4VR) developed at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) for research at the nexus of US climate and air quality extremes. AM4VR has a horizontal resolution of 13 km over the US, allowing it to resolve urban-to-rural chemical regimes, mesoscale convective systems, and land-surface heterogeneity. With the resolution gradually reducing to 100 km over the Indian Ocean, we achieve multi-decadal simulations driven by observed sea surface temperatures at 50% of the computational cost for a 25-km uniform-resolution grid. In contrast with GFDL's AM4.1 contributing to the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project at 100 km resolution, AM4VR features much improved US climate mean patterns and variability. In particular, AM4VR shows improved representation of: precipitation seasonal-to-diurnal cycles and extremes, notably reducing the central US dry-and-warm bias; western US snowpack and summer drought, with implications for wildfires; and the North American monsoon, affecting dust storms. AM4VR exhibits excellent representation of winter precipitation, summer drought, and air pollution meteorology in California with complex terrain, enabling skillful prediction of both extreme summer ozone pollution and winter haze events in the Central Valley. AM4VR also provides vast improvements in the process-level representations of biogenic volatile organic compound emissions, interactive dust emissions from land, and removal of air pollutants by terrestrial ecosystems. We highlight the value of increased model resolution in representing climate–air quality interactions through land-biosphere feedbacks. AM4VR offers a novel opportunity to study global dimensions to US air quality, especially the role of Earth system feedbacks in a changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) Science Plan

Mountains are the natural water towers of the world, effectively turning water vapor into readily available fresh water through precipitation, snowpack, and runoff. Unfortunately, Earth system models (ESMs) have persistently been unable to predict the timing and availability of water resources from mountains because the source(s) of model error are difficult to isolate in complex terrain with limited atmospheric or land-surface observations. Further complications arise from the gross scale mismatch between ESM grid box sizes and the relevant scales of mountainous hydrological processes. The mountain hydrometeorology community has repeatedly called for integrated atmospheric and land observations of water and energy budgets in complex terrain that span these scales to establish benchmarks against which scale-dependent models can be further developed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Trace Element Control in Master Alloys and Impact of Feedstock Purity on a Ta-containing Steel during Electroslag Remelting

Advanced materials design often leads to new complex compositions that can bring challenges to manufacturing processes. Melt processing of a novel alloy with a tight chemistry range revealed a 25% Ta loss after manufacturing. Vacuum induction melting (VIM) and electroslag remelting (ESR) were performed using industry practices at a laboratory scale and the loss occurred from the VIM electrode to the ESR ingot. Several tools were used for characterization, including combustion analysis, scanning electron microscopy, and electron probe microanalysis for observation of the precipitate and inclusion phases. Additionally, computational modeling of the ESR process was performed to predict macrosegregation and inclusion travel. It was found that a significant amount of Ta2O5 inclusions formed during VIM and were transferred to the slag during ESR. This led to a 95% decrease in density of inclusions explaining to Ta loss. Pathways to better control advanced alloy chemistries during melt processing will be discussed.

Detrois, Martin↗