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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 667 records · Page 37
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2013

Statistical and Hydrological Evaluation of TRMM-Based Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis over the Wangchu Basin of Bhutan: Are the Latest Satellite Precipitation Products 3B42V7 Ready for Use in Ungauged Basins?

The objective of this study is to quantitatively evaluate the successive Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) products and further to explore the improvements and error propagation of the latest 3B42V7 algorithm relative to its predecessor 3B42V6 using the Coupled Routing and Excess Storage (CREST) hydrologic model in the mountainous Wangchu Basin of Bhutan. First, the comparison to a decade-long (2001-2010) daily rain gauge dataset reveals that: 1) 3B42V7 generally improves upon 3B42V6s underestimation both for the whole basin (bias from -41.15 to -8.38) and for a 0.250.25 grid cell with high-density gauges (bias from -40.25 to 0.04), though with modest enhancement of correlation coefficients (CC) (from 0.36 to 0.40 for basin-wide and from 0.37 to 0.41 for grid); and 2) 3B42V7 also improves its occurrence frequency across the rain intensity spectrum. Using the CREST model that has been calibrated with rain gauge inputs, the 3B42V6-based simulation shows limited hydrologic prediction NSCE skill (0.23 in daily scale and 0.25 in monthly scale) while 3B42V7 performs fairly well (0.66 in daily scale and 0.77 in monthly scale), a comparable skill score with the gauge rainfall simulations. After recalibrating the model with the respective TMPA data, significant improvements are observed for 3B42V6 across all categories, but not as much enhancement for the already well-performing 3B42V7 except for a reduction in bias (from -26.98 to -4.81). In summary, the latest 3B42V7 algorithm reveals a significant upgrade from 3B42V6 both in precipitation accuracy (i.e., correcting the underestimation) thus improving its potential hydrological utility. Forcing the model with 3B42V7 rainfall yields comparable skill scores with in-situ gauges even without recalibration of the hydrological model by the satellite precipitation, a compensating approach often used but not favored by the hydrology community, particularly in ungauged basins.

TRMM↗
NASA NTRS2018

Cryogenic Selective Surfaces

There are many challenges involved in deep-space exploration, but several of these can be mitigated, or even solved, by the development of a coating that reflects most of the Sun’s energy, yet still provides far-infrared heat emission. Such a coating would allow non-heat-generating objects in space to reach cryogenic temperatures without using an active cooling system. This would benefit deep-space sensors that require low temperatures, such as the James Webb Telescope focal plane array. It would also allow the use of superconductors in deep space, which could lead to magnetic energy storage rings, lossless power delivery, or perhaps a large-volume magnetic shield against galactic cosmic radiation. However, perhaps the most significant enablement achieved from such a coating would be the long-term, deep space storage of cryogenic liquids, such as liquid oxygen (LOX). In our Phase I NIAC study, we realized that a combination of scattering particles and a silver backing could yield a highly effective, very broadband, reflector that could potentially reflect more than 99.9% of the Sun’s irradiant power. We developed a sophisticated model of this reflector and theoretically showed that cryogenic temperatures could be achieved in deep space at one astronomical unit (1 AU) from the Sun. We showed how this new reflector could minimize heat conduction into the cryogenic tanks by coating the tank support struts. We then modelled a strawman architecture for a mission to Mars, using a coated LOX tank, coated struts, and infrared shields, to show that with our new coating it would be possible to maintain liquid oxygen passively. As a result of this work a patent application was generated and a paper published in Optics Letters. Our Phase II NIAC study had two primary goals, to develop a rigid version of the cryogenic selective surface proposed in Phase I and to test its performance in a simulated deep space environment. During the first year of the project the work concentrated on developing rigid tiles of BaF2, leading to tiles as large as 4 inches in diameter that transmitted very little visible light. In addition, during the first year a simulated deep space environment was created using a vacuum chamber and cryocooler. Using this facility, we showed that our BaF2 tiles absorbed less than ¼% of 375 nm radiation, a significant milestone for the work. During the second year of the project, we continued to develop the BaF2 tiles and we put significant effort into the construction of a deep space environment where we could project simulated solar radiation onto a sample. In the spring of 2018, we conducted our first solar simulator test with BaF2 and saw about 3.6% absorption. This is better than the state-of-the-art, but disappointing since predictions were for much lower absorption. We, erroneously, attributed this absorption to water retention by the BaF2, and decided to change materials. We considered several oxides and settled on yttrium oxide (Y2O3) for further development, because it is broadband, lightweight, has high index, and is hydrophobic. In July 2018 we conducted our first test of a rigid tile of Y2O3 in the simulated deep space environment and saw significant absorption again. We then realized that the issue was not water, but mid-wave radiation passing through the tile and being absorbed by the temperature sensor and the varnish used to hold it in place. We wrapped the sensor in silver foil, re-ran the test, and saw much lower absorption; only 1.1%. We then re-ran the BaF2 tile and saw 1.4% absorption. These values are almost adequate to maintain LOX in deep space, but we suspect that there are still issues in our test apparatus; we suspect thermocouple wires may be absorbing radiation. Further, post-NIAC, testing will better determine the performance of our new solar reflector. In order to restrict the size of this report, we will only briefly describe topics that we have previously published, allowing us to devote more time to new material. So minimal material will be devoted to modeling the material and deep space cryogenic storage, while longer sections will cover our material development, simulated deep space testing, and new applications. The Launch Service Program (LSP) requested that we explore ways to use this new coating to maintain LOX in low Earth Orbit and that work is described. In addition, the Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) Program asked us to explore ways to reduce the heat load for liquid hydrogen, resulting in the development of a spray-on version of the coating that should significantly improve in-space multi-layer insulation performance.

Robert C. Youngquist,↗
NASA NTRS2018

Innovations in Spacecraft Proximity & Navigation Lighting

New spacecraft bound for the Moon and Mars should be exploring lighting technologies that can reduce safety risks while increasing capability. The operational lighting environment for these new missions will not have the forgiving 90 minute orbit of the International Space Station. Advances in solid state lighting and optics design are yielding new form factors for lamps that have the potential to reduce operational risk for both humans and imaging systems that are impacted by high contrast lighting environments. This project evaluated light source form factors and control innovations for spacecraft exterior proximity and navigation lighting by building a demonstration test rig and testing the effectiveness of the light sources and their controls to increase visibility and usability.

Clark, Toni A.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Spitzer Space Telescope Observations of the aftermath of Microlensing Event MACHO-LMC-5

We have carried out photometry of the microlensing event MACHO-LMC-5 with Spitzer Infrared Array Camera (IRAC) 10 years after the magnification of the LMC source star was recorded. This event is unique in the annals of gravitational microlensing: the lensing star itself has been observed using the Hubble Space Telescope (once with WFPC2 and twice with ACS/HRC). Since the separation between the source and lens at the epoch of the Spitzer observations was ~0".24, the two stars cannot be resolved in the Spitzer images. However, the IRAC photometry clearly establishes that the lens is an M5 dwarf star from its infrared excess, which in turn yields a mass of ~0.2 Mө. This demonstrates the potential of Spitzer to detect the lenses in other gravitational microlensing events.

Stern, Daniel↗
DOE OSTI2020

Separation of High Purity Oxygenated Aromatics from Catalytic Fast Pyrolysis Organic Streams

Thermochemical conversion of lignocellulosic biomass offers an attractive route to produce fuels and chemicals. Specifically, catalytic fast pyrolysis (CFP) oils have been shown to contain a high concentration of oxygenated aromatics, which can be isolated as value-added co-products. Purification of oxygenated aromatics can be a viable pathway to more economically competitive biorefineries, yet the isolation of highly pure coproduct streams remains technically challenging due to the high chemical heterogeneity of thermochemical process steams. Here, we demonstrate an industrially scalable process for isolating phenol, a widely used precursor to plastics, from CFP oil. Importantly, we leverage standard industrial processes, such as distillation, liquid-liquid extraction, and crystallization, to achieve phenol with 97% purity. In addition, the primary distillation of the CFP oil yielded several other fractions that contain chemicals with the potential to be isolated (e.g. cyclic ketones, cresols, and guaiacols). This work provides a technically feasible path to high purity oxygenated aromatics that has the potential to offset fuel production costs in a biorefinery.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRS2008

Electrocatalytic Reduction of Carbon Dioxide to Methane

A room-temperature electrocatalytic process that effects the overall chemical reaction CO2 + 2H2O yields CH4 + 2O2 has been investigated as a means of removing carbon dioxide from air and restoring oxygen to the air. The process was originally intended for use in a spacecraft life-support system, in which the methane would be vented to outer space. The process may also have potential utility in terrestrial applications in which either or both of the methane and oxygen produced might be utilized or vented to the atmosphere. A typical cell used to implement the process includes a polymer solid-electrolyte membrane, onto which are deposited cathode and anode films. The cathode film is catalytic for electrolytic reduction of CO2 at low overpotential. The anode film is typically made of platinum. When CO2 is circulated past the cathode, water is circulated past the anode, and a suitable potential is applied, the anode half-cell reaction is 4H2O yields 2O2 + 8H(+) + 8e(-). The H(+) ions travel through the membrane to the cathode, where they participate in the half-cell reaction CO2 + 8H(+) + 8e(-) yields CH4 + 2H2O.

Sammells, Anthony F.↗
DOE OSTI2025

First demonstration of improved yield with reduced adiabat in inertial confinement fusion implosions on the National Ignition Facility

Laser-driven, indirect-drive inertial confinement fusion (ICF) experiments at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) recently achieved a target gain greater than one, where fusion energy output exceeds input laser energy [Abu-Shawareb et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 132, 065102 (2024)]. Despite this milestone, gain levels remain insufficient for practical applications such as inertial fusion energy, making performance improvement critical. One promising approach is increasing fuel compression by lowering the implosion adiabat. To explore reduced adiabat, experiments were conducted modifying the laser pulse shape and shock timing of an existing 1.9-MJ-drive implosion design performing near the ignition cliff [Abu-Shawareb et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 129, 075001 (2022)]. These experiments demonstrated increased compression and fusion yield in ICF implosions at the NIF by using a lower fuel adiabat, and increased compression with a reduced adiabat in high-density carbon ablators. The updated design achieved up to 80% higher fusion yield and 14% greater fuel compression compared to the previous best-performing 1.9-MJ experiment, with repeatable performance, and is the only implosion design to achieve a target gain exceeding one with < 2.04 MJ laser energy. Notably, this work was made possible because of recent advances in target quality and pulse shape control allowing experimental access to the ignition regime, and thereby increased sensitivity to adiabat. This work addresses a long-standing question in ICF research and lays the foundation for higher target gains through optimized implosion strategies. It underscores the potential of reduced adiabat designs to enhance compression and fusion yields for future ICF applications.

Hohenberger, M. [Lawrence Livermore National Labor↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dimension-free path-integral molecular dynamics without preconditioning

Convergence with respect to imaginary-time discretization (i.e., the number of ring-polymer beads) is an essential part of any path-integral-based molecular dynamics (MD) calculation. However, an unfortunate property of existing non-preconditioned numerical integration schemes for path-integral molecular dynamics—including essentially all existing ring-polymer molecular dynamics (RPMD) and thermostatted RPMD (T-RPMD) methods—is that for a given MD time step, the overlap between the exact ring-polymer Boltzmann–Gibbs distribution and that sampled using MD becomes zero in the infinite-bead limit. This has clear implications for hybrid Metropolis Monte Carlo/MD sampling schemes, and it also causes the divergence with bead number of the primitive path-integral kinetic-energy expectation value when using standard RPMD or T-RPMD. We show that these and other problems can be avoided through the introduction of “dimension-free” numerical integration schemes for which the sampled ring-polymer position distribution has non-zero overlap with the exact distribution in the infinite-bead limit for the case of a harmonic potential. Most notably, we introduce the BCOCB integration scheme, which achieves dimension freedom via a particular symmetric splitting of the integration time step and a novel implementation of the Cayley modification [R. Korol et al., J. Chem. Phys. 151, 124103 (2019)] for the free ring-polymer half-steps. More generally, we show that dimension freedom can be achieved via mollification of the forces from the external physical potential. The dimension-free path-integral numerical integration schemes introduced here yield finite error bounds for a given MD time step, even as the number of beads is taken to infinity; these conclusions are proven for the case of a harmonic potential and borne out numerically for anharmonic systems that include liquid water. The numerical results for BCOCB are particularly striking, allowing for nearly three-fold increases in the stable time step for liquid water with respect to the Bussi–Parrinello (OBABO) and Leimkuhler (BAOAB) integrators, while introducing negligible errors in the calculated statistical properties and absorption spectrum. Importantly, the dimension-free, non-preconditioned integration schemes introduced here preserve ergodicity and global second-order accuracy, and they remain simple, black-box methods that avoid additional computational costs, tunable parameters, or system-specific implementations.

Korol, Roman (ORCID:0000000193076351)↗
NASA NTRS1993

Theoretical characterization of the reaction CH3 + OH yields CH3OH yields products - The (1)CH2 + H2O, H2 + HCOH, and H2 + H2CO channels

The potential energy surface (PES) for the CH3OH system has been characterized for the (1)CH2 + H2O, H2 + HCOH, and H2 + H2CO product channels using complete-active-space self-consistent-field (CASSCF) gradient calculations to determine the stationary point geometries and frequencies followed by CASSCF/internally contracted configuration-interaction (CCI) calculations to refine the energetics. The (1)CH2 + H2O channel is found to have no barrier. The long range interaction is dominated by the dipole-dipole term, which orients the respective dipole moments parallel to each other but pointing in opposite directions. At shorter separations there is a dative bond structure in which a water lone pair donates into the empty 'a' orbital of CH2. Subsequent insertion of CH2 into an OH bond of water have barriers located at -5.2 kcal/mol and 1.7 kcal/mol, respectively, with respect to CH3 + OH. From comparison of the computed energetics of the reactants and products to known thermochemical data it is estimated that the computed PES is accurate to plus or minus 2 kcal/mol.

Walch, Stephen P.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Abundances of ultraheavy elements in the cosmic radiation - Results from HEAO 3

An analysis is presented that, for the first time, systematically normalizes the data from the HEAO 3 heavy nuclei experiment on the cosmic-ray abundances of all the elements heavier than germanium to that of iron. In the range of atomic number Z from 33 to 60, the analysis yields abundances of odd-even element pairs. The abundances are consistent with a cosmic-ray source having a composition similar to that of the solar system, but subject to source fractionation correlated with the first ionization potential (FIP) of each element. For Z greater than 60, the analysis yields abundances of element groups. For these heaviest nuclei, we find an enhancement of the abundance of the platinum group, elements with Z of 74-80, relative to that in propagated solar system source, and a corresponding increase in the abundance of the largely secondary elements in the 62-73 range. These abundances suggest that there is an enhancement of the r-process contribution to the source nuclei in the Z greater than 60 charge region. Over the entire region of charge, standard leaky box models of propagation satisfactorily model secondary production.

Binns, W. R.↗
DOE OSTI2020

In silico assessment of the potential of basalt amendments to reduce N 2 O emissions from bioenergy crops

Abstract The potential of large‐scale deployment of basalt to reduce N 2 O emissions from cultivated soils may contribute to climate stabilization beyond the CO 2 ‐removal effect from enhanced weathering. We used 3 years of field observations from maize ( Zea mays ) and miscanthus ( Miscanthus × giganteus ) to improve the nitrogen (N) module of the DayCent model and evaluate the potential of basalt amendments to reduce N losses and increase yields from two bioenergy crops. We found 20%–60% improvement in our N 2 O flux estimates over previous model descriptions. Model results predict that the application of basalt would reduce N 2 O emissions by 16% in maize and 9% in miscanthus. Lower N 2 O emissions responded to increases in the N 2 :N 2 O ratio of denitrification with basalt‐induced increases in soil pH, with minor contributions from the impact of P additions (a minor component of some basalts) on N immobilization. The larger reduction of N 2 O emissions in maize than in miscanthus was likely explained by a synergistic effect between soil pH and N content, leading to a higher sensitivity of the N 2 :N 2 O ratio to changes in pH in heavily fertilized maize. Basalt amendments led to modest increases in modeled yields and the nitrogen use efficiency (i.e., fertilizer‐N recover in crop production) of maize but did not affect the productivity of miscanthus. However, enhanced soil P availability maintained the long‐term productivity of crops with high nutrient requirements. The alleviation of plant P limitation led to enhanced plant N uptake, thereby contributing to lower microbial N availability and N 2 O emissions from crops with high nutrient requirements. Our results from the improved model suggest that the large‐scale deployment of basalt, by reducing N 2 O fluxes of cropping systems, could contribute to the sustainable intensification of agriculture and enhance the climate mitigation potential of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage strategies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Efficient BiVO 4 /CoFeO x H y photoanodes using controlled annealing and conformal linear-sweep electrocatalyst photodeposition

Although monoclinic bismuth vanadate (BiVO 4 ) is a promising photoanode for solar water splitting, its practical use is hindered by imperfect photocurrent generation/collection, low photovoltage compared to the bandgap, and corrosion side reactions that limit durability. Here, we introduce a controlled-annealing sol–gel process for BiVO 4 thin-film photoanodes along with an optimized linear-sweep-voltammetry photodeposition of CoFeO x H y cocatalysts. The resulting BiVO 4 films annealed at 550 °C exhibited a photocurrent density of 4.1 mA/cm 2 at 1.23 V RHE under 1 sun AM 1.5G solar simulation and a low onset potential of 0.26 V RHE due to high majority carrier conductivity, a crystalline bulk with reduced defects as evidenced by x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy and photoluminescence lifetime analysis, and thus enhanced photocarrier collection. However, significant degradation in performance was found due to interfacial photocorrosion. To protect the surface and speed the oxygen-evolution reaction CoFeO x H y cocatalyst layers were deposited. By varying the number of consecutive sweeps and adjusting the applied bias range, an ultra-thin (~15 nm) CoFeO x H y cocatalyst layer was uniformly grown deposited over 30 cycles on the BiVO 4 surface. The resulting BiVO 4 /CoFeO x H y yielded 4.03 mA/cm 2 at 1.23 V RHE and onset potential of 0.24 V RHE , with stable operation (~15 % loss in photocurrent at 1.23 V RHE relative to ~60 % loss in the uncatalyzed control sample). These conformal CoFeO x H y catalytic layers function simultaneously to selectively collect photoexcited holes from the BiVO 4 , catalyze the water-oxidation reaction, and protect the BiVO 4 from photodegradation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Development of a deep potential model for F and CF 2 etching of Si and SiO 2

An understanding of plasma-surface interactions at increasingly smaller scales is invaluable for the development of novel technologies and processing techniques. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations can provide insights into atomic-scale interactions, though they are restricted by the availability of interatomic potentials. Machine learning methods, such as Deep Potential Molecular Dynamics (DeepMD), provide a systematic framework for the development of accurate and flexible ab initio-based models. In this work, we develop DeepMD models for the ion-enhanced etching of Si and SiO 2 by F and CF 2 radicals. We employ an active learning process to expand the data set on which the model is trained and demonstrate its effect on the model accuracy. The DeepMD results are compared to data from classical MD simulations and experiments. Physical sputtering yields of SiO 2 by Ar + ions show good agreement with previous simulation results using conventional interatomic potentials, though the predicted depth profiles are different. Etching yields are calculated as a function of ion energy and neutral to ion flux ratio for the Ar + ion-enhanced etching of SiO 2 and Si by F atoms, as well as for etching of SiO 2 by CF 2 radicals, showing reasonable agreement with experimental data. Finally, an ion-enhanced surface kinetic model is fitted to the DeepMD etch yields, and the fitted parameters are compared to quantities computed directly from DeepMD simulations. This study illustrates how molecular dynamics simulations using machine learning potentials can provide an accurate model of etching processes relevant to device manufacturing.

Kounis-Melas, Andreas [Princeton Univ., NJ (United↗
NASA NTRS2022

Europa Clipper Mission: System Integration Review Report

Jupiter’s icy moon Europa is a prime target in our exploration of potentially habitable worlds beyond Earth. The combination of a subsurface liquid water layer in contact with a rocky seafloor may yield an ocean rich in the elements and energy needed for the emergence of life, and for potentially sustaining life through time. Europa may hold the clues to one of NASA’s long-standing quests – to determine whether or not we are alone in the universe. The Europa Clipper mission will characterize Europa’s habitability as the first step in the search for potential life at Europa by conducting approximately four dozen flybys. The project is preparing for a System Integration Review in November of 2021. This paper will summarize changes from the mission’s Preliminary Design Review (PDR) baseline, including science objectives, launch vehicle, interplanetary trajectory, science tour, flight system, payload and mission phases. Since PDR several of the Level 1 science requirements were descoped and the science requirement flow was realigned, in order to control cost growth. The realignment deemphasized science redundancy, which had resulted in an over-constrained science tour, in favor of a more targeted linkage to the primary responding instrument. Additionally, changes to the PDR flight system design baseline include changes to the sounding radar antenna design, the magnetometer architecture, and the heat redistribution system pumps. All changes have been incorporated into a reference science tour used to demonstrate that the requirements and design of the flight system and payload are mature enough to support flight builds.

Cook, Kendra↗
DOE OSTI2020

MassIVE MSV000085948 - Utilization of syringyl lignin-derived compounds and production of 2-pyrone-4,6-dicarboxylic acid by Pseudomonas putida KT2440: Lignin is an abundant aromatic polymer formed in plants by coupling reactions of p-coumaryl, coniferyl, and sinapyl alcohols. Pseudomonas putida KT2440 (P. putida KT2440), a robust soil bacterium, naturally catabolizes many aromatic compounds derived from lignin as carbon and energy sources and has been extensively engineered to valorize guaiacyl (G) and p-hydroxyphenyl (H) lignin-derived aromatic species to valuable chemicals. However, only a few studies report the capacity of Pseudomonads to grow on syringyl (S) lignin-derived compounds. In this work, we demonstrate that P. putida KT2440 catabolizes syringate in the presence of an auxiliary energy source. Overexpression of vanAB, encoding a native Rieske non-heme iron monooxygenase, enabled catabolism of syringate and syringaldehyde without an additional carbon and energy source. In vitro biochemical characterization of VanAB confirmed that this enzyme O-demethylates syringate to 3-O-methylgallate and, subsequently, 3-O-methylgallate to gallate, albeit 4- and 55-fold less efficiently than vanillate, respectively. Transcriptomics and proteomics experiments demonstrate that the galADBC transcripts and enzymes required for gallate catabolism are induced when vanAB is overexpressed during cultivation in syringate. Further, we show that that the endogenous protocatechuate-3,4-dioxygenase PcaHG ring-opens gallate to produce 2-pyrone-4,6-dicarboxylic acid (PDC), a promising bio-based chemical. Constitutive overexpression of vanAB and pcaHG along with galA deletion enabled PDC production from SA at a 70% (mol/mol) yield. Furthermore, leveraging the LigAB dioxygenase from Sphingobium sp. SYK-6 and VanAB O-demethylase from Pseudomonas sp. HR199 enabled simultaneous conversion of monomers with S-, G-, and H-type functionality to PDC at 82% (mol/mol) yield. Overall, this study elucidates a native pathway for catabolism of syringyl lignin-derived compounds in P. putida KT2440 and demonstrates the potential of this robust host for biological funneling of substrates derived from all three canonical monolignols.

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Beckham, Gregg↗
DOE OSTI2024

Vertical instability forecasting and controllability assessment of multi-device tokamak plasmas in DECAF with data-driven optimization

Abstract Reliable vertical position control will be an essential element of any future tokamak-based fusion power plant in order to reduce disruptions and maximize performance. We investigate methods to improve vertical controllability boundary determination in plasma operational space and demonstrate a data-driven approach based on direct pseudoinversion of operational space data that is rigorously quantitative, applicable in real-time plasma control systems, and physically intuitive to interpret. Applied to historical shot data from entire run campaigns on the MAST-U, KSTAR, and NSTX tokamaks, this approach, implemented in DECAF, improves vertical displacement event identification accuracy to 98.9%–100%. Further, we explore the application of a physics-based vertical stability metric as an early warning forecaster for vertical displacement events. The development of a linear surrogate model for the plasma current density profile, with a coefficient of determination of 0.992 on the training dataset, enables potential employment of this forecaster in real-time. The application of this approach on historical data from the MAST-U MU02 campaign yields a forecaster with 62.6% accuracy, indicating promise for this method when further refined and potentially coupled with other stability metrics.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS2023

Uncertainty in Land-Use Adaptation Persists Despite Crop Model Projections Showing Lower Impacts Under High Warming

Climate change is expected to impact crop yields and alter resource availability. However, the understanding of the potential of agricultural land-use adaptation and its costs under climate warming is limited. Here, we use a global land system model to assess land-use-based adaptation and its cost under a set of crop model projections, including CO2 fertilization, based on climate model outputs. In our simulations of a low-emissions scenario, the land system responds through slight changes in cropland area in 2100, with costs close to zero. For a high emissions scenario and impacts uncertainty, the response tends toward cropland area changes and investments in technology, with average adaptation costs between −1.5 and +19 US$05 per ton of dry matter per year. Land-use adaptation can reduce adverse climate effects and use favorable changes, like local gains in crop yields. However, variance among high-emissions impact projections creates challenges for effective adaptation planning.

Agriculture↗
NASA NTRS2015

Statistical Analysis of Large Simulated Yield Datasets for Studying Climate Effects

Many studies have been carried out during the last decade to study the effect of climate change on crop yields and other key crop characteristics. In these studies, one or several crop models were used to simulate crop growth and development for different climate scenarios that correspond to different projections of atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature, and rainfall changes (Semenov et al., 1996; Tubiello and Ewert, 2002; White et al., 2011). The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP; Rosenzweig et al., 2013) builds on these studies with the goal of using an ensemble of multiple crop models in order to assess effects of climate change scenarios for several crops in contrasting environments. These studies generate large datasets, including thousands of simulated crop yield data. They include series of yield values obtained by combining several crop models with different climate scenarios that are defined by several climatic variables (temperature, CO2, rainfall, etc.). Such datasets potentially provide useful information on the possible effects of different climate change scenarios on crop yields. However, it is sometimes difficult to analyze these datasets and to summarize them in a useful way due to their structural complexity; simulated yield data can differ among contrasting climate scenarios, sites, and crop models. Another issue is that it is not straightforward to extrapolate the results obtained for the scenarios to alternative climate change scenarios not initially included in the simulation protocols. Additional dynamic crop model simulations for new climate change scenarios are an option but this approach is costly, especially when a large number of crop models are used to generate the simulated data, as in AgMIP. Statistical models have been used to analyze responses of measured yield data to climate variables in past studies (Lobell et al., 2011), but the use of a statistical model to analyze yields simulated by complex process-based crop models is a rather new idea. We demonstrate herewith that statistical methods can play an important role in analyzing simulated yield data sets obtained from the ensembles of process-based crop models. Formal statistical analysis is helpful to estimate the effects of different climatic variables on yield, and to describe the between-model variability of these effects.

climate↗