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DOE OSTI2021

Projected Changes to Hydroclimate Seasonality in the Continental United States

Abstract Future changes to the hydrological cycle are projected in a warming world, and any shifts in drought risk may prove extremely consequential for natural and human systems. In addition to long‐term moistening, drying, or warming trends, perturbations to the annual cycle of regional hydroclimate variables may also have substantial impacts. We analyze projected changes in several hydroclimate variables across the continental United States, along with shifts in the amplitude and phase of their annual cycles. We find that even in regions where no robust change in the annual mean is expected, coherent changes to the annual cycle are projected. In particular, we identify robust regional phase shifts toward earlier arrival of peak evaporation in the northern regions, and peak runoff and total soil moisture in the western regions. Changes in the amplitude of the annual cycle of total and surface soil moisture are also projected, and reflect changes to the annual cycle in surface water supply and demand. Whether changes become detectable above the background noise of internal variability depends strongly on the future scenario considered, and significant changes to the annual cycle are largely avoided in the lowest‐forcing scenario.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Shallow Bound States and Hints for Broad Resonances with Quark Content b ¯ c ¯ u d in B − D ¯ and B * − D ¯ Scattering from Lattice QCD

We present the first determination of the energy dependence of the B − D ¯ and B * − D ¯ isospin-0, S -wave scattering amplitudes both below and above the thresholds using lattice QCD, which allows us to investigate rigorously whether mixed bottom-charm b ¯ c ¯ u d tetraquarks exist as bound states or resonances. The scattering phase shifts are obtained using Lüscher’s method from the energy spectra in two different volumes. To ensure that no relevant energy level is missed, we use large, symmetric 7 × 7 and 8 × 8 correlation matrices that include, at both source and sink, B ( * ) − D ¯ scattering operators with the lowest three or four possible back-to-back momenta in addition to local b ¯ c ¯ u d operators. We fit the energy dependence of the extracted scattering phase shifts using effective-range expansions. We observe sharp peaks in the B ( * ) − D ¯ scattering rates close to the thresholds, which are associated with shallow bound states, either genuine or virtual, a few MeV or less below the B ( * ) − D ¯ thresholds. In addition, we find hints for resonances with masses of order 100 MeV above the thresholds and decay widths of order 200 MeV. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Alexandrou, Constantia↗

DOE OSTI2025

Spontaneous Localization at a Potential Saddle Point from Edge State Reconstruction in a Quantum Hall Point Contact

Quantum point contacts (QPCs) are an essential component in mesoscopic devices. Here, in this work, we study the transmission of quantum Hall edge modes through a gate-defined QPC in monolayer graphene. We observe resonant tunneling peaks and a nonlinear conductance pattern characteristic of Coulomb-blockaded localized states. The in-plane electric polarizability reveals the states are localized at a classically unstable electrostatic saddle point. We explain this unexpected finding within a self-consistent Thomas-Fermi model, finding that localization of a zero-dimensional state at the saddle point is favored whenever the applied confinement potential is sufficiently soft compared to the Coulomb energy. Our results provide a direct demonstration of Coulomb-driven reconstruction at the boundary of a quantum Hall system.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Insights into the broadband emission of the TeV blazar Mrk 501 during the first X-ray polarization measurements

Aims.We present the first multiwavelength study of Mrk 501 that contains simultaneous very-high-energy (VHE)γ-ray observations and X-ray polarization measurements from the Imaging X-ray Polarimetry Explorer (IXPE). Methods.We used radio-to-VHE data from a multiwavelength campaign carried out between March 1, 2022, and July 19, 2022 (MJD 59639 to MJD 59779). The observations were performed by MAGIC,Fermi-LAT,NuSTAR,Swift(XRT and UVOT), and several other instruments that cover the optical and radio bands to complement the IXPE pointings. We characterized the dynamics of the broadband emission around the X-ray polarization measurements through its multiband fractional variability and correlations, and compared changes observed in the polarization degree to changes seen in the broadband emission using a multi-zone leptonic scenario. Results.During the IXPE pointings, the VHE state is close to the average behavior, with a 0.2–1 TeV flux of 20%–50% of the emission of the Crab Nebula. Additionally, it shows low variability and a hint of correlation between VHEγ-rays and X-rays. Despite the average VHE activity, an extreme X-ray behavior is measured for the first two IXPE pointings, taken in March 2022 (MJD 59646 to 59648 and MJD 59665 to 59667), with a synchrotron peak frequency > 1 keV. For the third IXPE pointing, in July 2022 (MJD 59769 to 59772), the synchrotron peak shifts toward lower energies and the optical/X-ray polarization degrees drop. All three IXPE epochs show an atypically low Compton dominance in theγ-rays. The X-ray polarization is systematically higher than at lower energies, suggesting an energy stratification of the jet. While during the IXPE epochs the polarization angles in the X-ray, optical, and radio bands align well, we find a clear discrepancy in the optical and radio polarization angles in the middle of the campaign. Such results further support the hypothesis of an energy-stratified jet. We modeled broadband spectra taken simultaneous to the IXPE pointings, assuming a compact zone that dominates in the X-rays and the VHE band, and an extended zone stretching farther downstream in the jet that dominates the emission at lower energies.NuSTARdata allow us to precisely constrain the synchrotron peak and therefore the underlying electron distribution. The change between the different states observed in the three IXPE pointings can be explained by a change in the magnetization and/or the emission region size, which directly connects the shift in the synchrotron peak to lower energies with the drop in the polarization degree.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2023

How Time Inefficient and Uncertain are Paratransit Trips Compared to Car Trips

The Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) stipulates that paratransit mobility be comparable to public transit. However, with just under 5% of the population relying on public transportation, transit is not a representative benchmark. To highlight this inequality, we compare trip times by paratransit to counterfactual car-based travel. Using 2.5 years of demand data from the Denver Regional Transportation District's Access-a-Ride service, we compare paratransit trip times to counterfactual car-based trips for the same origin-destination pairs, controlling for various trip characteristics. Compared to car travel, the findings indicate high variability and uncertainty associated with paratransit trip times. For the same origin-destination pairs, the mean paratransit trip time is almost twice that of the mean car travel time, with a standard deviation for paratransit trip time fourfold that of the standard deviation for car trip time. For perspective, traveling an average of 10 mi during the 7-8 a.m. morning peak can take about 16 min by car with almost no variability, while that same trip can take an average of 25 min by paratransit, with 5% of trips being outside the 95% confidence interval and thus unpredictable. Paratransit trip time inefficiency tends to be particularly worse for females; older adults; those making trips between 9 and 11 a.m.; cash-paying customers; those making shorter trips; and those traveling during inclement weather, including cold temperatures. These findings suggest a need to re-assess using public transit as a benchmark for paratransit supply as regulated by the ADA.

accessible transportation and mobility↗

DOE OSTI2024

Experimental evidence of enhanced radial transport in small ELM regimes at DIII-D

Small/type-II edge-localized-modes (ELMs), carrying 1% of the plasma stored energy, are found to deposit only 45 ± 5% of the ELM power near the strike point, and the remaining 55 ± 5% to the far scrape-off-layer (SOL). Small ELMs spread their power over a larger area compared to type-I ELMs, where such a ratio is about 60% and 40% for near- and far-SOL regions, respectively. The larger spread is reflected in the heat flux width (λq) in the SOL for the intra-small ELMs profile of 6.0 mm, almost a factor 2 larger than that of type-I ELMs of 3.15 mm, for similar plasma conditions and magnetic configuration. At the ELM peak, the small ELMs λq is found to be up to 4 times larger than for the type-I ELMs, going from 2 to 7.9 mm, indicating enhanced radial transport in the neon-seeded small ELM scenario. Inter-ELM λqs have been also calculated at the secondary outer divertor in quasi-double-null (QDN) discharges. It is found that, on average, λq is 2.2 times larger in the high-separatrix-density small ELM regime, compared to a reference type-I ELM one. These findings are supported by small ELMs radial velocity profiles, measured at the outer midplane with a fast reciprocating probe, showing a decay length (λvr) in the SOL of 12.8 cm, which is 3.3 times larger than that for the type-I ELMs of 3.9 cm. This analysis shows that small ELMs, although attractive for future machines due to low peak heat flux and large λq, might be of concern for the larger flux to the outer wall.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Language models for the prediction of SARS-CoV-2 inhibitors

The COVID-19 pandemic highlights the need for computational tools to automate and accelerate drug design for novel protein targets. We leverage deep learning language models to generate and score drug candidates based on predicted protein binding affinity. We pre-trained a deep learning language model (BERT) on ∼9.6 billion molecules and achieved peak performance of 603 petaflops in mixed precision. Our work reduces pre-training time from days to hours, compared to previous efforts with this architecture, while also increasing the dataset size by nearly an order of magnitude. For scoring, we fine-tuned the language model using an assembled set of thousands of protein targets with binding affinity data and searched for inhibitors of specific protein targets, SARS-CoV-2 Mpro and PLpro. We utilized a genetic algorithm approach for finding optimal candidates using the generation and scoring capabilities of the language model. Our generalizable models accelerate the identification of inhibitors for emerging therapeutic targets.

Blanchard, Andrew E.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Open-Loop Control of Adjustable Tuned Mass Dampers for Floating Wind Turbine Platforms

In this study, we demonstrate the ability of adjustable tuned mass dampers (TMDs) to reduce the platform motion of floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs). The TMDs are located in the hull and provide control authority by varying the amount of water ballast and compressed air in a reservoir over time. The optimal TMD settings depend on the wind and wave conditions of the FOWT. We present an open-loop control scheme that changes the TMD natural frequency based on sea state and a simple method for estimating the peak wave period and significant wave height. The performance of this open-loop control is compared to ideal control of the TMDs (set knowing the exact sea state), a TMD with a constant natural frequency targeting the design load case with the greatest platform motion, and a baseline set of simulations of the platform without TMDs. The constant natural frequency case performs nearly as effectively as the actively controlled case, suggesting that the TMDs can be simply designed for extreme load conditions and provide consistent control over a range of environments; however, the methods used to find the optimal TMD parameters and estimate sea state statistics could be used in other aspects of FOWT control and design.

artificial intelligence↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling supercritical CO2 injection induced rupture of a minor fault embedded in a poroelastic layered reservoir-caprock system

CO2 injection for geologic carbon sequestration involves hydromechanical processes that lead to changes in fluid pressure and stresses that can activate existing faults. This paper presents a new method and workflow of modeling fault activation considering more complex three-dimensional geometry of natural faults using the TOUGH-FLAC multiphase fluid flow and geomechanical simulator. In this method and workflow, FLAC3D mechanical interfaces and TOUGH3 finite volume elements are discretized using computer aided design and gridding software along with a tailored mesh translation routine. The method and workflow are demonstrated with a model of a curved minor fault embedded in a poro-elastic layered reservoir-caprock system. The model is used for a comprehensive sensitivity analysis of fault responses to fault length, injection mass rate, injection schedule, well-fault distance, and well locations versus fault location. Four metrics (CO2 plume, shear state of fault, pressure and stress path at fault monitoring points) are selected to assess CO2 migration, pressure change, and the reactivation of faults. The results reveal that CO2 can bypass around the tip of the minor impermeable fault, building up pressure and poro-elastic stress on both sides that tends to impede fault rupture. Our study shows the benefit of carefully designing the injection to achieve the targeted final storage volume, starting at a relatively low rate for considerable time, and then ramping up the injection rate to the full rate of injection. The initial low injection has two distinct benefits: (1) it allows for the formation of an extensive CO2 plume with a much higher mobility through a low viscosity that will result in a lower pressure for a given injection rate, and (2) it allows for gradual build-up of horizontal poro-elastic stress within the reservoir that will tend to impede activation of steeply dipping faults. The injection scenario starting at a low injection rate, denoted here as conservative injection, can significantly reduce the risk of fault activation as high fluid mobility and reservoir strengthening poro-elastic stress has been established long before reaching the peak injection rates. Moreover, simultaneous injection in two injection wells on both sides of fault can provide further reservoir strengthening through poro-elastic stress buildup acting on a fault under normal faulting stress regime. The findings presented in the paper can provide practical and effective guidance on long-term, safe, and reliable geological CO2 storage.

Cao, Meng↗

DOE OSTI2023

High-pressure phase of cold-compressed bulk graphite and graphene nanoplatelets

Here, we have studied the high-pressure vibrational and structural behavior of bulk graphite and graphene nanoplatelets at room temperature by means of high-pressure Raman spectroscopic and x-ray diffraction probes. We have detected a clear pressure-induced structural transition in both materials, evidenced by the appearance of new Bragg peaks and Raman features, deviating from the starting hexagonal graphitic structure. The high-pressure phase is identified as a partially disordered orthorhombic structure, consisting of mixed sp 2 - and sp 3 -type bonding. Our experimental findings serve as direct evidence for the existence of a metastable transient modification in cold compressed carbon, lying between the sp 2 -type graphite and sp 3 -type diamond allotropes.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2024

Isospin equilibration in neutron star mergers

We analyze the isospin equilibration properties of neutrinoless nuclear (npe) matter in the temperature and density range that is relevant to neutron star mergers. Our analysis incorporates neutrino-transparency corrections to the isospin (“beta”) equilibrium condition which become noticeable at T ≳ 1 MeV. We find that the isospin relaxation rate rises rapidly as temperature rises, and at T ≈ 5 MeV it is comparable to the timescale of the density oscillations that occur immediately after the merger. This produces a resonant peak in the bulk viscosity at T ≈ 5 MeV, which causes density oscillations to be damped on the timescale of the merger. Furthermore, our calculations suggest that isospin relaxation dynamics may also be relevant when neutrinos are treated more accurately via neutrino transport schemes.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Scalability Analysis of Quantum Models for Stress and Emotion Detection

Stress and emotion detection from high-dimensional physiological signals is a challenging task, particularly when aiming for accurate classification across diverse behavioral states. Quantum machine learning (QML) is promising for modeling such high-dimensional data, but scalability is limited by qubit resources and the exponential cost of classical statevector simulation. This work studies the scalability of quantum support vector machines (QSVMs) for binary stress detection and three-class emotion recognition (Negative/Neutral/Positive) under varying qubit counts and angle-encoding strategies. We also present a comparison study with one-feature-per-qubit (1:1) and two-features-per-qubit (2:1) mappings. Experiments are executed on HPC infrastructure using NVIDIA CUDA-Q to evaluate performance, variance, and class-dependent separability at higher-qubit setups. Results show that larger Hilbert spaces can improve peak accuracy but may increase instability. At the same time, dense 2:1 encoding yields more consistent stress detection performance. For emotion recognition, scaling improves discrimination for classes like Negative and Positive more than Neutral. We find that effective QML scaling is task-dependent and benefits more from encoding design than simply increasing qubit count.

Onim, Md. Saif Hassan [University of Tennessee, Kn↗

DOE OSTI2025

Challenge Problem 1: Preliminary Results of the Direct Numerical Simulation of Transient Flows

This report presents the first direct numerical simulations (DNS) of transient mixed convection in an idealized downcomer-like channel (Challenge Problem 1, Phase II). Using the GPU-accelerated NekRS solver, we modeled a sudden decay in driving pressure, mimicking loss-of-flow events, and tracked the resulting evolution of Reynolds number, boundary-layer structure, turbulence statistics, and heat-transfer metrics. Key findings include the systematic thickening and eventual asymmetry of velocity and thermal boundary layers under buoyant deceleration; minimal “memory” lag in Reynolds shear stress and TKE profiles when sampled at matching Re, yet clear shifts of peak locations toward the cooled wall; overshoots in transient eddy-viscosity and eddy-diffusivity (and corresponding sub-unity turbulent Prandtl numbers) on the cooled side; and a pronounced transient Nusselt-number enhancement driven by wall-temperature inertia and residual eddy mixing. These effects combined to offer a temporary cooling margin above steady-state predictions during reactor LOF transients. Future work will extend this work to a more complex “Case II” geometry (90° turn + lower plenum) and generate multi-Re/Pr datasets for data-driven turbulence closures.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Structures of glass-forming liquids by x-ray scattering: Glycerol, xylitol, and D-sorbitol

In this work, synchrotron X-ray scattering has been used to investigate three liquid polyalcohols of different sizes (glycerol, xylitol and D-sorbitol) from above the glass transition temperatures $T_g$ to below. We focus on two structural orders: the association of the polar OH groups by hydrogen bonds (HBs) and the packing of the non-polar hydrocarbon groups. We find that the two structural orders evolve very differently reflecting the different natures of bonding. Upon cooling from 400 K, the O$\cdots$O correlation at 2.8 Å increases significantly in all three systems, indicating more HBs, until kinetic arrest at $T_g$; the increase is well described by an equilibrium between bonded and non-bonded OH with ΔH = 9.1 kJ/mol and ΔS = 13.4 J/mol/K. When heated above $T_g$, glycerol loses the fewest HBs per OH, followed by xylitol and by D-sorbitol, in the same order the number of OH groups per molecule increases (3, 5, and 6). The pair correlation functions of all three liquids show exponentially damped density modulations of wavelength 4.5 Å, which are associated with the main scattering peak and with the intermolecular C$\cdots$C correlation. In this respect, glycerol is the most ordered with the most persistent density ripples, followed by D-sorbitol and by xylitol. Heating above $T_g$ causes faster damping of the density ripples with the rate of change being the slowest in xylitol, followed by glycerol and by D-sorbitol. Given the different dynamic fragility of the three liquids (glycerol being the strongest and D-sorbitol the most fragile), we relate our results to the current theories of the structural origin for the difference. We find that the fragility difference is better understood on the basis of the thermal stability of HB clusters than that of the structure associated with the main scattering peak.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

S 8 ring content in liquid sulfur determined from x-ray diffraction

The S 8 ring content in liquid sulfur has been determined from the 4.47 Å peak in the x-ray pair distribution function over the temperature range −55 °C –330 °C. This peak represents the characteristic 3rd and 4th nearest atom-atom distances across an S 8 -ring. Three procedures were used to calculate the S 8 -ring fraction; scaling to crystalline β-S, a linear combination fit and a direct integration method. All methods gave similar values, indicating that approximately one third of the S 8 -rings break up upon melting into a distribution of short chains with an average length of 5 ± 2 atoms. Our results contradict established models of low temperature sulfur that indicate below the λ-transition the liquid comprises almost entirely of S8-rings. In addition, we find the S 8 -ring fraction increases to 76 ± 10% at −30 °C in the supercooled liquid, and decreases to 23% ± 3% at 330 °C in the high temperature melt. First principle molecular dynamics calculations confirm the onset of dynamic ring distortion via broad bond angle distributions, associated with the interstitial region between the first and second peaks in the pair distribution function. Our results are consistent with the presence of a propensity of short chains in the low temperature liquid, that are required for the bond switching mechanism responsible for the polymerization process to occur at the λ-transition temperature, T λ .

lambda transition↗

DOE OSTI2025

Sensitivity of Regional WRF‐Chem Air Quality and Weather Simulations to Biomass‐Burning Emission Data Sets: A Case Study of the Impact of Canadian Wildfire on the US°

This study focuses on the period from June 26 to 29, 2023, when record‐breaking Canadian wildfires severely impacted air quality in the Midwest United States. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry (WRF‐Chem) and four biomass‐burning data sets (Fire Inventory from NCAR version 1, Fire Inventory from NCAR version 2.5, Quick Fire Emissions Data set [QFED], and Regional ABI‐VIIRS Emission), we analyzed aerosol transport from Canada to the US and assessed the model's accuracy in predicting PM 2.5 , O 3 , CO and aerosol weather feedback. Model simulations were compared with ground‐based and remote sensing observations as well as field measurements from the Community Research on Climate and Urban Science (CROCUS) project. Our findings show that the movement of a low‐pressure system from the Great Lakes to the Atlantic, combined with the high‐pressure system over the Atlantic, caused the transport of aerosols from Canadian wildfires to the US. Results show WRF‐Chem significantly underestimated key atmospheric components: aerosol optical depth (AOD) by over 50%, PM 2.5 by 65%–90% and peak O 3 concentrations by 50%–55% across four biomass burning data sets. Additionally, CO and NO 2 concentrations were underpredicted. The substantial underestimation of PM 2.5 led to an overestimation of temperature by up to 3.6 °C primarily due to excessive downward shortwave radiation, which resulted from the underestimation of direct aerosol effects and an increase in sensible heat flux. Among the biomass‐burning data sets, QFED produced the most accurate AOD and PM 2.5 predictions due to improved wildfire emission estimates, leading to a 1.0 to 1.5 °C reduction in temperature overestimation during the daytime. These findings underscore the need for improving wildfire emission estimates for trace gases and aerosols to enhance air quality and weather feedback predictions.

WRF-chem model↗

DOE OSTI2020

A double peak in the seasonality of California's photosynthesis as observed from space

Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) has been shown to be a powerful proxy for photosynthesis and gross primary productivity (GPP). The recently launched TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) features the required spectral resolution and signal-to-noise ratio to retrieve SIF from space. Here, we present a downscaling method to obtain 500 m spatial resolution SIF over California. We report daily values based on a 14 d window. TROPOMI SIF data show a strong correspondence with daily GPP estimates at AmeriFlux sites across multiple ecosystems in California. We find a linear relationship between SIF and GPP that is largely invariant across ecosystems with an intercept that is not significantly different from zero. Measurements of SIF from TROPOMI agree with MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation indices – the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), enhanced vegetation index (EVI), and near-infrared reflectance of vegetation index (NIR$_v$) – at annual timescales but indicate different temporal dynamics at monthly and daily timescales. TROPOMI SIF data show a double peak in the seasonality of photosynthesis, a feature that is not present in the MODIS vegetation indices. The different seasonality in the vegetation indices may be due to a clear-sky bias in the vegetation indices, whereas previous work has shown SIF to have a low sensitivity to clouds and to detect the downregulation of photosynthesis even when plants appear green. We further decompose the spatiotemporal patterns in the SIF data based on land cover. The double peak in the seasonality of California's photosynthesis is due to two processes that are out of phase: grasses, chaparral, and oak savanna ecosystems show an April maximum, while evergreen forests peak in June. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis corroborates the phase offset and spatial patterns driving the double peak. The EOF analysis further indicates that two spatiotemporal patterns explain 84 % of the variability in the SIF data. Results shown here are promising for obtaining global GPP at sub-kilometer spatial scales and identifying the processes driving carbon uptake.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Electrified autonomous freight benefit analysis on fleet, infrastructure and grid leveraging Grid-Electrified Mobility (GEM) model

Fast-growing freight activities over the decades have become one of the major contributors to air pollution, leading to many efforts in freight decarbonization and electrification. However, the development of freight electrification is slow due to technological uncertainty, slow charging, high capital cost, etc. This paper analyzes the potential impact and benefit of heavy-duty vehicle (HDV) electrification and automation on fleet cost, infrastructure cost, the electricity grid, and environmental outcomes. In this work, we extended the vehicle electrification benefit analysis tool: Grid-Electrified Mobility (GEM) model, which had primarily been used to study light-duty passenger vehicles (LDVs), to analyze heavy-duty vehicle electrification. The extended model is derived for freight transportation electrification, and different freight electrification and automation adoption scenarios were analyzed. We find that the increased penetration of automated electric freight fleets within other types of electrified freight fleets from 1% to 99% will result in an overall cost reduction of 18.2%, fleet size reduction of 20.4%, and lower peak load reduction of 14.3%.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗