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At least 667 records · Page 37

Physics–Informed Neural Networks of the Saint–Venant Equations for Downscaling a Large–Scale River Model

Large-scale river models are being refined over coastal regions to improve the scientific understanding of coastal processes, hazards and responses to climate change. However, coarse mesh resolutions and approximations in physical representations of tidal rivers limit the performance of such models at resolving the complex flow dynamics near the river-ocean interface, resulting in inaccurate simulations of flood inundation. In this research, we propose a machine learning (ML) framework based on the state-of-the-art physics-informed neural network (PINN) to simulate the downscaled flow at the subgrid scale. First, we demonstrate that PINN is able to assimilate observations of various types and solve the one-dimensional (1-D) Saint-Venant equations (SVE) directly. We perform the flow simulations over a floodplain and along an open channel in several synthetic case studies. The PINN performance is evaluated against analytical solutions and numerical models. Our results indicate that the PINN solutions of water depth have satisfactory accuracy with limited observations assimilated. In the case of flood wave propagation induced by storm surge and tide, a new neural network architecture is proposed based on Fourier feature embeddings that seamlessly encodes the periodic tidal boundary condition in the PINN's formulation. Furthermore, we show that the PINN-based downscaling can produce more reasonable subgrid solutions of the along-channel water depth by assimilating observational data. The PINN solution outperforms the simple linear interpolation in resolving the topography and dynamic flow regimes at the subgrid scale. This study provides a promising path towards improving emulation capabilities in large-scale models to characterize fine-scale coastal processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Control of Vibration Systems with Mechanical Motion Rectifier and their Applications to Vehicle Suspension and Ocean Energy Harvester

Vibration control is a large branch in control research, because all moving systems may induce desired or undesired vibration. Due to the limitation of passive system’s adaptability and changing excitation input, vibration control brings the solution to change system dynamic with desired behavior to fulfill control targets. According to preference, vibration control can be separated into two categories: vibration reduction and vibration amplification. Lots of research papers only examine one aspect in vibration control. The thesis investigates the control development for both control targets with two different control applications: vehicle suspension and ocean wave energy converter. It develops control methods for both systems with simplified modeling setup, then followed by the application of a novel mechanical motion rectifier (MMR) gearbox that uses mechanical one-way clutches in both systems. The flow is from the control for common system to the control design for a specifically designed system. In the thesis, active (model predictive control: MPC), semi-active (Skyhook, skyhook-power driven damper: SHPDD, hybrid model predictive control: HMPC), and passive control (Latching Control) methods are developed for different applications or control performance comparison on single system. The thesis also studies about new type of system with switching mechanism, in which other papers do not talk too much and possible control research direction to deal with such complicated system in vibration control. The state-space modeling for both systems are provided in the thesis with detailed model of the MMR gearbox. From the simulation, it can be shown that in the vehicle suspension application, the controlled MMR gearbox can be effective in improving vehicle ride comfort by 29.2% compared to that of the traditional hydraulic suspension. In the ocean wave energy converter, the controlled MMR WEC with simple latching control can improve the power generation by 57% compared to the passive MMR WEC. Besides, the passive MMR WEC also shows its advantage on the passive direct drive WEC in power generation improvement. From the control development flow for the MMR system, the limitation of the MMR gearbox is also identified, which introduces the future work in developing active-MMR gearbox by using an electromagnetic clutch. Some possible control development directions on the active-MMR is also mentioned at the end of the thesis to provide reference for future works.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Assessing the fidelity of shallow-water carbonates as records of the Ni isotope composition of surface seawater

Nickel is a bioessential metal that is used in enzymes important to the C, N, and O cycles, and changes in its marine abundance and bioavailability may have affected the evolutionary trajectory of early life. Changes over time in the Ni isotope composition (δ 60 Ni) of surface seawater, which reflects biological demand for Ni, could allow for the reconstruction of the dynamics of Ni demand over Earth’s history, but this approach would require geologic records of surface seawater. Here, we investigate the fidelity of shallow-water carbonates as a record of the Ni isotope composition of surface seawater by determining how Ni is first partitioned into natural carbonates and then how post-depositional processes influence the Ni signal. Our samples come from the Great Bahama Bank, which is a well-studied, modern carbonate platform often used to study ancient platforms. We found that Ni is fractionated from seawater upon incorporation into carbonates capturing shallow (<18 cm), recent deposition (0.1 ‰–0.4 ‰ lighter than seawater). Variation among these [Ni] and δ 60 Ni values may be controlled by variation in mineral proportions. Meteoric diagenesis shifts δ 60 Ni to lower values, which we attribute to isotopically light meteoric fluids. In contrast, carbonates that experienced sediment-buffered marine diagenesis with respect to Ca isotopes and Sr/Ca ratios do not appear to differ in δ 60 Ni values from sediments generally representative of their initial deposition. The sensitivity of δ 60 Ni to diagenetic reset in these samples appears comparable to the sensitivities of Ca isotopes and Sr/Ca ratios, to first order. Thus, in general, carbonates that experienced sediment-buffered marine diagenesis with respect to these elements may hold the most promise as a record of the δ 60 Ni of coeval surface seawater. Additionally, we use our results to infer that the fraction of Ni removed from seawater into carbonates is less than 10 % of the total Ni output from the global oceans and incorporation of this Ni sink into global biogeochemical models will only have a minor impact on the modeled modern Ni budget.

Great Bahama Bank carbonates↗

Factors influencing mode choice of adults with travel-limiting disability

Introduction: Despite the plethora of research devoted to analyzing the impact of disability on travel behavior, not enough studies have investigated the varying impact of social and environmental factors on the mode choice of people with disabilities that restrict their ability to use transportation modes efficiently. This research gap can be addressed by investigating the factors influencing the mode choice behavior of people with travel-limiting disabilities, which can inform the development of accessible and sustainable transportation systems. Additionally, such studies can provide insights into the social and economic barriers faced by this population group, which can help policymakers to promote social inclusion and equity. Method: This study utilized a Random Parameters Logit model to identify the individual, trip, and environmental factors that influence mode selection among people with travel-limiting disabilities. Here, using the 2017 National Household Travel Survey data for New York State, which included information on respondents with travel-limiting disabilities, the analysis focused on a sample of 8,016 people. In addition, climate data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration were integrated as additional explanatory variables in the modeling process. Results: The results revealed that people with disabilities may be inclined to travel longer distances walking in the absence of suitable accommodation facilities for other transportation modes. Furthermore, people were less inclined to walk during summer and winter, indicating a need to consider weather conditions as a significant determinant of mode choice. Moreover, low-income people with disabilities were more likely to rely on public transport or walking. Conclusion: Based on this study’s findings, transportation agencies could design infrastructure and plan for future expansions that is more inclusive and accessible, thus catering to the mobility needs of people with travel-limiting disabilities.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Understanding Biases in Simulated Cloud Radiative Effects in E3SMv3

This study systematically investigates biases in cloud radiative effects (CREs) within the recently released Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 3 (E3SMv3). Compared to its previous version (E3SMv2), E3SMv3 shows excessively strong shortwave CRE over tropical and subtropical oceans, the Southern Ocean, and the Northern Hemisphere storm tracks, which is primarily caused by an overestimation of optically intermediate low clouds. The model also displays excessive longwave CRE over the Maritime Continent and other tropical deep convection regions, resulting from an overestimation of optically thick high clouds. Implementing the Predicted Particle Properties (P3) scheme for stratiform clouds played the most significant role in these cloud changes. In addition, using a double-moment scheme for convective clouds contributed to the increase in intermediate low clouds and optically thick clouds in tropical deep convection regions. Error metrics for total cloud amount (E TCA ), cloud properties (E ctp-τ ), and cloud properties weighted by their SW and LW radiative impacts (E SW and E LW ) indicate that E3SMv3's ability to reproduce observed cloud radiative effect of low, middle, and high clouds has not been improved compared to E3SMv2. Nevertheless, the performance of E3SMv3 remains well within the spread of CMIP6 models, with E SW and E LW values smaller than those in most CMIP6 models. This study underscores the importance of integrating diverse satellite observations for robust cloud evaluation and using cloud-radiation relationships as consistency check for model errors. It suggests that further model developments focus on improving cloud microphysics and their interactions with radiation.

Environmental sciences↗

Response of the Indian Summer Monsoon to Global Warming, Solar Geoengineering and its Termination

The response of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) to global warming, solar geoengineering and its termination is examined using the multi-model mean of eight global climate model simulations from G2 experiment of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project. Under the global warming scenario, land-ocean temperature contrasts and low-level monsoon circulation progressively strengthen accompanied by enhanced precipitation over the Indian subcontinent. Notably, in the solar geoengineered scenario, marginal surface cooling is projected over the majority of the ISM region, and there is strengthening of both upper and lower level circulation. Upon the termination of the geoengineering, the climatic conditions temperature, precipitation, and winds — would abruptly change to what it would have been under the global warming scenario, and such abrupt change may cause devastating consequences.

Bhowmick, Mansi↗

Evaluating the Lagrangian Evolution of Subtropical Low Clouds in GCMs Using Observations: Mean Evolution, Time Scales, and Responses to Predictors

In this work, a Lagrangian framework is developed to show the daily-scale time evolution of low clouds over the eastern subtropical oceans. An identical framework is applied to two general circulation models (GCMs): the CAM5 and UKMET and a set of satellite observations. This approach follows thousands of parcels as they advect downwind in the subtropical trade winds, comparing cloud evolution in time and space. This study tracks cloud cover, in-cloud liquid water path (CLWP), droplet concentration $N_d$, planetary boundary layer (PBL) depth, and rain rate as clouds transition from regions with predominately stratiform clouds to regions containing mostly trade cumulus. The two models generate fewer clouds with greater $N_d$ relative to observations. Models show stronger Lagrangian cloud cover decline and greater PBL deepening when compared with observations. In comparing frequency distributions of cloud variables over time, it is seen that models generate increasing frequencies of nearly clear conditions at the expense of overcast conditions, whereas observations show transitions from overcast to cloud amounts between 50% and 90%. Lagrangian decorrelation time scales ($\mathcal{e}$-folding time $\tau$) of cloud cover and CLWP are between 11 and 19 h for models and observations, although they are a bit shorter for models. A Lagrangian framework applied here resolves and compares the time evolution of cloud systems as they adjust to environmental perturbations in models and observations. Increasing subsidence in the overlying troposphere leads to declining cloud cover, CLWP, PBL depth, and rain rates in models and observations. Modeled cloud responses to other meteorological variables are less consistent with observations, suggesting a need for continuing mechanical improvements in GCMs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Growing Pacific Linkage with Western North Atlantic Explosive Cyclogenesis

Abstract Explosive cyclones (ECs), defined as extratropical cyclones that experience normalized pressure drops of at least 24 hPa in 24 h, are impactful weather events in the North Atlantic sector, but year-to-year changes in the frequency and impacts of these storms are sizeable. To analyze the sources of this interannual variability, we track cases of ECs and dissect them into two spatial groups: those that formed near the east coast of North America (coastal) and those in the north central Atlantic (high latitude). The frequency of high-latitude ECs is strongly correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, a well-known feature, whereas coastal EC frequency is statistically linked with an atmospheric wave train emanating from the North Pacific in the last 30 years. This wave train pattern of alternating high and low pressure is associated with heightened upper-level divergence and Eady growth rates along the east coast of North America, likely resulting in a stronger correspondence between the atmospheric wave train and coastal EC frequency. Using coupled model experiments, we show that the tropical and North Pacific oceans are an important factor for this atmospheric wave train and the subsequent enhancement of seasonal baroclinicity in the North Atlantic.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Integration of AI/ML with Data Assimilation for Earth System Prediction

Focal Area(s): Development of dynamically consistent AI/ML methods that can integrate with the data assimilation cycle to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of state estimation and prediction at short to medium range forecast horizons. Science Challenge: This white paper addresses a first step toward complete integration of AI/ML and DA. Here, we address model emulation and its application to simple coupled atmosphere-ocean dynamics for use in data assimilation applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Coupled Analysis of Atmospheric Mass Loss and Tidal Evolution in XUV Irradiated Exoplanets: The TRAPPIST-1 Case Study

Exoplanets residing close to their stars can experience evolution of both their physical structures and their orbits due to the influence of their host stars. In this work, we present a coupled analysis of dynamical tidal dissipation and atmospheric mass loss for exoplanets in X-ray and ultraviolet (XUV) irradiated environments. As our primary application, we use this model to study the TRAPPIST-1 system and place constraints on the interior structure and orbital evolution of the planets. We start by reporting on an ultraviolet continuum flux measurement (centered around ∼1900 Å) for the star TRAPPIST-1, based on 300 ks of Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory data, and which enables an estimate of the XUV-driven thermal escape arising from XUV photodissociation for each planet. We find that the X-ray flaring luminosity, measured from our X-ray detections, of TRAPPIST-1 is 5.6 × 10{sup −4} L {sub *}, while the full flux including non-flaring periods is 6.1 × 10{sup −5} L {sub *}, when L {sub *} is TRAPPIST-1's bolometric luminosity. We then construct a model that includes both atmospheric mass loss and tidal evolution and requires the planets to attain their present-day orbital elements during this coupled evolution. We use this model to constrain the ratio Q{sup ′}=3Q/2k{sub 2} for each planet. Finally, we use additional numerical models implemented with the Virtual Planet Simulator VPLanet to study ocean retention for these planets using our derived system parameters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Design, Fabrication, and Test Program for NREL's Wave-Powered Desalination System

Starting in 2018, the U.S. Department of Energy's Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO), initiated the development of a prize competition as a foundational investment of Powering the Blue Economy, the prize encouraged the development of small, modular, cost-competitive wave-powered desalination systems. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was tasked with managing the prize, known as the Waves to Water Prize (W2W), and providing technical input based on prior desalination research performed at the lab. NREL partnered with the Coastal Studies Institute (CSI) and Jennette's Pier in North Carolina for their expertise in deploying research articles at the Jennette's Pier research facility. The prize consisted of five stages that included high-level concept proposals, numerical modelling, site-specific design, subsystem prototyping, and a final ocean demonstration. Due to the logistical risks of installing numerous prototypes in the ocean at the same time, NREL was tasked with designing and building a test article to de-risk the final event. The test article design needed to represent the technologies expected in the final stage of the prize. This meant that the design was expected to follow the same rules as the competitors, providing CSI with an opportunity to practice installations and develop a final logistics plan prior to the final event. After concluding the W2W event in April 2022, the NREL test article was redeployed in August 2022 to better understand the challenges of anchoring wave energy converters (WECs) in shallow water conditions with breaking waves.

desalination↗

The MOSAiC Distributed Network: Observing the coupled Arctic system with multidisciplinary, coordinated platforms

Central Arctic properties and processes are important to the regional and global coupled climate system. The Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) Distributed Network (DN) of autonomous ice-tethered systems aimed to bridge gaps in our understanding of temporal and spatial scales, in particular with respect to the resolution of Earth system models. By characterizing variability around local measurements made at a Central Observatory, the DN covers both the coupled system interactions involving the ocean-ice-atmosphere interfaces as well as three-dimensional processes in the ocean, sea ice, and atmosphere. The more than 200 autonomous instruments (“buoys”) were of varying complexity and set up at different sites mostly within 50 km of the Central Observatory. During an exemplary midwinter month, the DN observations captured the spatial variability of atmospheric processes on sub-monthly time scales, but less so for monthly means. They show significant variability in snow depth and ice thickness, and provide a temporally and spatially resolved characterization of ice motion and deformation, showing coherency at the DN scale but less at smaller spatial scales. Ocean data show the background gradient across the DN as well as spatially dependent time variability due to local mixed layer sub-mesoscale and mesoscale processes, influenced by a variable ice cover. The second case (May–June 2020) illustrates the utility of the DN during the absence of manually obtained data by providing continuity of physical and biological observations during this key transitional period. We show examples of synergies between the extensive MOSAiC remote sensing observations and numerical modeling, such as estimating the skill of ice drift forecasts and evaluating coupled system modeling. The MOSAiC DN has been proven to enable analysis of local to mesoscale processes in the coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean system and has the potential to improve model parameterizations of important, unresolved processes in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Rethinking the Susceptibility-Based Strategy for Marine Cloud Brightening Climate Intervention: Experiment With CESM2 and Its Implications

Previous modeling studies indicate that even though marine cloud brightening under a susceptibility-based strategy is effective in reducing the global average surface temperature, it triggers a La Niña-like sea-surface temperature response with cooling mostly confined within lower latitudes. Here we explore a different cloud seeding strategy involving seeding of regions with low susceptibility, primarily over the ocean in midlatitudes during the winter. Simulations with the Community Earth System Model, version 2 reveal that because the regional forcing is weaker and more widespread, cooling is more evenly distributed over the globe. This new strategy also does not result in the La Niña-like state seen in the other strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Harnessing Ocean Thermal Gradients Using Thermoelectric Based Submersibles for Ocean Power Applications

The urgent need for energy solutions in marine environments has accelerated the development of innovative technologies capable of leveraging natural resources for power generation. This study introduces a buoyancy-driven submersible system designed to harness ocean thermal gradients using thermoelectric generators (TEGs) and phase change materials (PCMs). The technology aims to provide autonomous power to offshore aquaculture farms, unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs), offshore platform illumination, and ocean sensors, significantly reducing dependence on fossil fuels. Ocean thermal gradients, especially prevalent in mid-latitude regions, exhibit temperature differences between surface and deep waters ranging from 7 degrees Celsius to 30 degrees Celsius depending on seasonal variations. The proposed submersible technology utilizes TEGs to convert thermal energy from these gradients into electrical power, generating between 0.2 and 0.5 watts, while PCMs are employed to store and regulate this energy, ensuring a stable and continuous power supply. The buoyancy-driven mechanism of the submersible enhances its capability to navigate through varying depths, optimizing its exposure to different thermal gradients and maximizing energy harvesting. The performance of this submersible system is analyzed through detailed thermodynamic assessments and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling focused on heat transfer. These analyzes consider real-world ocean temperature profiles and seek to refine the interaction between TEGs and PCMs to optimize energy extraction. The evaluation encompasses several key performance metrics, including power output and energy efficiency. Results confirm the potential of this innovative technology to provide a continuous and reliable power source for marine applications. By demonstrating the feasibility of using ocean thermal gradients for energy generation, this study contributes to the broader efforts of innovation in energy technologies for harsh, remote marine environments. The implementation of such promises is significant advancements in the autonomy of marine operations. The ongoing research will further investigate scalability ensuring that the system can be effectively adapted to various marine settings and operational demands.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

efam: an e xpanded, metaproteome-supported HMM profile database of viral protein fam ilies

Viruses infect, reprogram and kill microbes, leading to profound ecosystem consequences, from elemental cycling in oceans and soils to microbiome-modulated diseases in plants and animals. Although metagenomic datasets are increasingly available, identifying viruses in them is challenging due to poor representation and annotation of viral sequences in databases. Here, we establish efam, an expanded collection of Hidden Markov Model (HMM) profiles that represent viral protein families conservatively identified from the Global Ocean Virome 2.0 dataset. This resulted in 240 311 HMM profiles, each with at least 2 protein sequences, making efam >7-fold larger than the next largest, pan-ecosystem viral HMM profile database. Adjusting the criteria for viral contig confidence from ‘conservative’ to ‘eXtremely Conservative’ resulted in 37 841 HMM profiles in our efam-XC database. To assess the value of this resource, we integrated efam-XC into VirSorter viral discovery software to discover viruses from less-studied, ecologically distinct oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) marine habitats. This expanded database led to an increase in viruses recovered from every tested OMZ virome by ~24% on average (up to ~42%) and especially improved the recovery of often-missed shorter contigs (<5 kb). Additionally, to help elucidate lesser-known viral protein functions, we annotated the profiles using multiple databases from the DRAM pipeline and virion-associated metaproteomic data, which doubled the number of annotations obtainable by standard, single-database annotation approaches. Together, these marine resources (efam and efam-XC) are provided as searchable, compressed HMM databases that will be updated bi-annually to help maximize viral sequence discovery and study from any ecosystem.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Quantifying the Occurrence of Record Hot Years Through Normalized Warming Trends

Surface air temperature trends and extreme events are of global concern and they are related. Here we show that the occurrence of record hot years over different latitudes from 1960-2019 are more strongly correlated with the observational annual mean temperature trends normalized by internal variability. Compared with the raw trends showing Arctic amplification, the normalized trends show a tropical amplification over land. Two hot spots with more frequent occurrence of record hot years are identified: northern hemisphere ocean (versus land) and southern hemisphere tropical land (versus mid- and high-latitude lands). Ensemble mean results from 32 Earth system models agree with observations better than individual models, but they do not reproduce observed large differences in correlations across latitudes between normalized trends and record-breaking events over land versus ocean. Furthermore, our results enable the quantification of record hot year occurrence through normalized warming trends and provide new metrics for model evaluation and improvement.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Initialized Earth system prediction from subseasonal to decadal timescales

Initialized Earth system predictions are made by starting a numerical prediction model in a state as consistent as possible to observations, and running it forward in time for up to ten years. Skillful predictions at time slices from subseasonal to seasonal (S2S), seasonal to interannual (S2I) and seasonal to decadal (S2D) offer information useful for various stakeholders, from agriculture to water resource management, and human and infrastructure safety. In this Review, we examine the processes influencing predictability, and discuss estimates of skill across S2S, S2I and S2D timescales. There are encouraging signs that skillful predictions can be made: at S2S timescales, there has been some skill in predicting the Madden-Julian Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation; at S2I in predicting the El Niño-Southern Oscillation; and at S2D, in predicting variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. However, challenges remain, and future work must prioritise reducing model error, more effectively communicating forecasts to users, and increasing process and mechanistic understanding that could increase predictive skill and, in turn, confidence. As numerical models progress towards Earth system models, initialized predictions are expanding to include prediction of sea-ice, air pollution, terrestrial and ocean biochemistry which can bring clear benefit to society and various stakeholders.

climate prediction↗

Exploring the Constraints on Simulated Aerosol Sources and Transport across the North Atlantic with Island-Based Sun Photometers

Atmospheric aerosol over the North Atlantic Ocean impact regional clouds and climate. In this work, we use a set of sun photometer observations of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) located on the Graciosa and Cape Verde islands, along with the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model to investigate the sources of these aerosol and their transport over the North Atlantic Ocean. At both locations, the largest simulated contributor to aerosol extinction is the local source of sea-salt aerosol. In addition to this large source, we find that signatures consistent with long-range transport of anthropogenic, biomass burning, and dust emissions are apparent throughout the year at both locations. Model simulations suggest that this signal of long-range transport in AOD is more apparent at higher elevation locations; the influence of anthropogenic and biomass burning aerosol extinction is particularly pronounced at the height of Pico Mountain, near the Graciosa Island site. Using a machine learning approach, we further show that simulated observations at these three sites (near Graciosa, Pico Mountain, and Cape Verde) can be used to predict the simulated background aerosol imported into cities on the European mainland, particularly during the local winter months, highlighting the utility of background AOD monitoring for understanding downwind air quality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗